Markets appear to be waiting for the NFP number which we expect to be a market mover. Unemployment should maintain 10%, projections for jobs range from a gain of 200,000 to a loss of 200,000? Pay attention to the revisions as well.
Crude failed to make a new high and after 10 consecutive positive sessions we actually had a down day, believe it or not. If yesterday’s highs hold, the correction we’ve been expecting $3-5 lower should start. Natural gas was lower by 2.5% today, giving back some from yesterday's 6% appreciation. We feel a move lower is likely and expect $6 to serve as solid resistance. On a move back near $5.25 we would be interested in shopping longs for clients again.
March sugar reversed mid-day to close 1.5% lower today. We anticipate a 2-3 cent correction; some clients are positioned long July and short March playing the backwardation. No freeze overnight in Florida and as it warms up, OJ should falter, presently clients have no exposure.
A reversal in palladium and copper could mark an interim top as prices have been on a tear. Gold closed marginally lower and silver slightly higher. Use $1110 as support and $1140 as resistance in February gold. Use $18 as support and $18.50 as resistance in March silver.
Continue to exit long March corn on spikes above resistance, we are bullish but prefer May to March. Those that went short March soybeans yesterday should be at a profit, on a similar move tomorrow look for an exit.
The dollar was higher today with all crosses getting hit. We have clients long the Yen via March call spread who are currently under water... stay the course.
Live cattle continue to consolidate inside the recent 1.5 cent range. We suggest selling on rallies above 87 to cover lon! gs if gi ven the opportunity.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
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