Saturday, December 8, 2012

Pandora: New Website, Same Risks

Pandora Media, Inc (P) just released its updated website. The new website design is sleek and very pleasant. In addition to the new look, the company has also removed the 40 hour listening limit, increased artist information, improved listener controls, added to listener profile capabilities and increased website loading times. Just as importantly, the company also improved its revenue potential by including larger video advertisements on the site. These are nice steps in the company's evolution, but they do little to improve the attractiveness of the stock and to reduce competitive risks.

Despite the changes, the company's stock is still extremely pricey even after dropping more than 60% from its 52-week high. The company has a price/sales of 8.34 and no near term expectations for profits. In the two year period ending in January 31, 2011, the company's sales jumped from $19.33 million to $137.76 million. This growth is highly desirable during our current subdued economic growth environment and this may explain the company's valuations, but still, the rich multiples leave investors with little margin for safety from the company's many competitive risks.

For example, not long ago, Pandora was the biggest player in internet music business, but Spotify's jump across the Atlantic has changed the competitive landscape. Spotify also offers a similar online music service, but they have several major advantages over Pandora, with a larger song catalog, a better platform and better integration with social media.

In addition to Spotify, Pandora continues to face some competitive risks from Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). While satellite radio is a very different business model because they require a hardware investment and mandatory subscription fees, there is some overlap because of the general genre of music content distribution, but also because of the limited control over the play lists. Still, unlike Pandora and Spotify, SIRI offers proprietary content and it has full control over its distribution capacity through its satellite infrastructure. In contrast, internet music providers have double dependencies. They face music acquisition costs and bandwidth costs that both scale with use.

GOING FORWARD
Pandora is the classic case of a nice company and a bad stock. Many market watchers cannot understand how a good company can have a unattractive stock, but the truth is that every stock has its price. At an undervalued price, the stock is attractive and at an overvalued price, the stock is unattractive. Assuming Pandora's stock valuations remain elevated, the company needs fundamental improvements to enhance the desirability of Pandora's stock.

These fundamental improvements may include a genuine shift towards social media, a growth in subscription services or a change in technology that more fully integrates Pandora with users' other mainstays. Until then, investors should not view the new website and other improvements as meaningful changes to the Pandora stock investment thesis.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SIRI over the next 72 hours.

Brinton Eaton Warns of Big Tax Hikes if Congress Doesn’t Act

The Bush income and estate tax cuts of 2001 are set to expire in three months, and Robert DiQuollo, president of the boutique advisory firm Brinton Eaton, is more than a little concerned about congressional inaction in the run-up to November midterm elections.

"If the Bush tax cuts of 2001 are not extended, we will witness one of the largest tax increases in history," DiQuollo said in a commentary released by Brinton Eaton on Friday.

Nine years ago, Congress passed several income and estate tax reductions through a "reconciliation" process that resulted in their being sunsetted after 2010.The commentary noted that, absent congressional action, marginal income tax rates for the top fifth and top income brackets would increase to 36% and 39.6%, respectively, from the current rates of 33% and 35%. Net capital gains rates for these two brackets would go up to 20% from 15%.

The biggest change, however, would come in the qualified dividend area, which would increase from 15% to a maximum of 39.6% if Congress did not extend the cuts, according to the commentary. Moreover, tax rates for 2013 when the new health care laws are effective would impose an additional 3.8% tax on individual taxpayers whose modified adjusted gross income exceeds $200,000, or $250,000 for married couples filing joint returns.

The estate tax in 2011, and going forward, would also be significantly more onerous if Congress did not act, the commentary said. In 2009, an individual could leave up to $3.5 million to a non-spouse beneficiary without incurring a federal estate tax.

"For the current year, 2010, there is no federal estate tax," DiQuollo said in the commentary. "You may recall hearing that the heirs of George Steinbrenner, the late owner of the New York Yankees who died in July, saved almost $500 million in federal estate taxes, on a $1 billion estate. This pales in comparison to Dan Duncan, owner of a natural gas processing plants in Texas, whose heirs will inherit over $10 billion with no estate tax."

The commentary concluded that without congressional action, the federal estate tax will be reborn on January 1, 2011, and will tax all inheritances to non-spouse beneficiaries in excess of only $1 million dollars, with progressive rates going as high as 55%. DiQuollo pointed out that if billionaire Dan Duncan had died in 2011 rather than 2010, "his estate would have paid up to $5.5 billion to Uncle Sam (assuming the estate was left to his children) versus the actual amount of 'zero.' "

Ford Is Fundamentally Cheap - Again

After gaining market share and seeing sales in January increase more than 7% recently, Ford (F) stock steadily rose until it fell just shy of $13/share. Of recent the stock has fallen, along with the market as a whole, on the heels of political unrest in Greece. This pullback represents an opportune time to open, or add to, a position in Ford.

Looking away from the markets, though, Ford on its own deserves a valuation higher than what it has currently. There has been no negative news on the company that would allow it to deserve such negative price action. Fundamentally nothing has changed and I expect that once the market moves past the politics in Greece, we'll see value hunters return to the market and boost the shares of Ford. A discounted cash flow analysis, operating on the assumptions of 9% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and an annual growth of free cash flow of 3%, arrives at an estimated "fair value" price of $16/share.

The company has eaten the market share of overseas competitors as natural disasters have affected the supply lines of those companies. For has also begun paying a dividend again, something that many investors were looking for. While the dividend is only a modest 1.61% against the current share price, Ford's CEO alan Mulally did not deny the notion that the company could raise the dividend over the next two years. Saying only that "...we'll definitely consider based on the economic situation and where we are, because it's just another very important use of our cash, but clearly where we are in the growth cycle worldwide will be a primary consideration."

I strongly believe that this is a buying opportunity in Ford, and I am acting on this recommendation through the use of long dated call options. I am currently long the January 2013 12.50 strike Calls which currently trade around $1.52/contract and will look to augment my position moving forward.

You can see my original article on Ford here.

Disclosure: I am long Ford stock using the 12.50 Strike calls, and will look to augment my position as the stock moves lower.

Spain Reportedly To Cut Solar Subsidy 30% For Existing Plants

Spain is proposing to cut the subsidies it pays solar plants by 30% for existing plants, 45% for future ground-mounted units, 25% for large future roof-mounted sites and 5% for smaller roofs, according to various wire service reports, citing comments from industry lobbyists.

Reuters notes that Tomas Diaz, a spokesman for the Spanish solar lobby ASIF, said that the proposal would “destroy the government’s renewables-friendly policy and kill us all off.”

The government wants to close the big gap between the real cost of producing power and the subsidized price consumers pay for it.

The Best Dragon Killers Online Money Review And The Best Bonus

First whenever you place a video clip whether it is your own or 1 from YouTube you’re asking the visitor to spend at least a minute or five minutes viewing the video. The video clip ought to be appropriate for your content. You do not wish to have a video about dogs when your site is about hair care tips for women.

The visitor came for your site to learn about the topic you are discussing, therefore the video has to be interesting to them.

Multiple pages on your web site will also help. This also goes with the home web page.

To be able to get the reader to view the multiple pages you’ve to have excellent content material on the home web page. Once the reader sees the homepage is relevant to their needs they’ll click on the other pages on your web site to find out much more information. This gets them to spend more time on the website and therefore earns you a higher rank. Enticing blurbs are small hyperlinks or statements on the house web page that get the reader to click for the actual content from the write-up. In other words look at the media web pages and see the hyperlinks they create.

The media has little 1 line blurbs or titles for the article that get you to click on the actual content, therefore you invest more time around the web site.

Newsletters will also help. Should you provide a newsletter via email or even provide the newsletter to be read around the website you will increase the interest of visitors and have them return to spend much more time on the web site.

Over all else is the consideration of SEO articles.

These articles are designed to use appropriate keywords and improve the visitors for your website and thus the time spent around the website. If you combine all of the techniques above you will discover your self with an increased rank and much more traffic.

My full Dragon Killers Online Money Review. If you choose the product you can get the best Dragon Killers Online Money Bonus here.

22 Reasons to Absolutely Love This Stock

The following video is part of our "Motley Fool Conversations" series, in which consumer goods editor/analyst Austin Smith and technology editor/analyst Andrew Tonner discuss topics across the investing world.

In today's edition, Austin discusses 22 reasons to love PepsiCo, a consumer staples powerhouse with a billion-dollar portfolio of brands. �The company recently announced the addition of three more monster brands to its arsenal.

Please enable Javascript to view this video.

Every now and again, we come across a stock that has us so excited we can hardly contain our investing enthusiasm. We've uncovered one such pick with so much promise that we've dubbed it: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012." We've created a special free report for investors to uncover this soon-to-be rock star. The report highlights a company that is revolutionizing commerce in Latin America, and you can get instant access to the name of this company by clicking here to download it now.

Choose-Your-Own Adventure: The Greek Default Edition!

Bond market geeks at BNP Paribas churned out this fantastic chart showing how the ever unfolding European choose-your-own-adventure could play out. It’s really helpful, but it needs a bit of translation for, as the ancient Greeks would say, the�hoi polloi. So we’ll give you a quick translation below.

BNP Paribas
  • Launch of tender offer = Greek government goes to investors and says we want you to trade in your old bonds for these new ones that yield less.
  • PSI=Private sector involvement, the process of getting banks, hedge funds and other investors to agree to lower yields on their bonds than originally agreed to. This is kind of the soft, fuzzy version of default. A “hard default” is essentially Greece just saying it won’t pay, period.
  • CACs= Collective action clauses, a piece of legal language in bond contracts that makes it easier �for the debtor to change the terms of the bond payments. Under a collective-action clause, a group of bondholders (typically two-thirds or three-quarters) can agree to impose losses on everyone else. Greece has been talking about �passing legislation introducing collective-action clauses and retroactively applying it to outstanding debt.
  • CDS=Credit Default Swaps, essentially insurance contracts on government debt. In theory they would pay investors who bought them, if Greece defaults. But some suspect these contracts might not actually pay investors, if enough investors “voluntarily” agree to accept new repayment terms on their Greek bonds.

Any other questions on the chart? Toss ‘em in the comments section and I’ll try to dig up some answers.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Will AZZ Disappoint Analysts Next Quarter?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for AZZ (NYSE: AZZ  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like AZZ do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is AZZ sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. AZZ's latest average DSO stands at 50.8 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 51.1 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does AZZ look like it might miss it numbers in the next quarter or two?

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, AZZ's year-over-year revenue grew 13.2%, and its AR grew 24.7%. That's a yellow flag. End-of-quarter DSO increased 10.2% over the prior-year quarter. It was down 1.2% versus the prior quarter. That demands a good explanation. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

  • Add AZZ to My Watchlist.

Top Stocks For 2011-12-16-14

Gardner Denver Inc. (NYSE:GDI) announced third quarter results that established quarterly records for revenues, operating income, net income and DEPS. Gardner Denver’s third quarter 2011 revenues of $614.7 million were up 25% over the $493.4 million reported in the third quarter of 2010. Operating income for the third quarter of 2011 was $106.6 million, a 57% increase from $68.0 million recorded in the same period of 2010. Operating margin improved 350 basis points to 17.3% in the third quarter of 2011. Net income in the third quarter of 2011 increased 58% to $73.6 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, from the third quarter 2010 level of $46.6 million, or $0.88 per diluted share.

Gardner Denver, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets engineered industrial machinery and related parts and services primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia.

Some advantages of Biomass:
o It is easy to convert Biomass to a high-energy portable fuel such as alcohol or gas.
o Biomass production helps in restoration of wasteland.
o It is very low in sulphur reducing the production of acid rain.
o It can be used in areas of unused agricultural land.

Cleantech Transit Inc. (�Cleantech�) (OTC.BB:CLNO) is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company�s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.

The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.

Cleantech Transit is focusing its efforts on building a portfolio of environmentally friendly green assets. Cleantech Transit goal is to create a self sustaining environment where they can produce and sell clean electricity for their domestic use. In addition Cleantech will expand its focus to other areas of sustainable energies including renewable resources such as Geothermal, Solar and Wind. Their goal is to use innovative technologies to reduce electricity consumption and dependence on carbon based energy.

Cleantech Transit Inc. was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the growing clean energy public transportation sector. The Company has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net).

Phoenix Energy’s energy solutions can significantly reduce your operating costs in a number of ways, by reducing both your fuel and disposal costs and helping you qualify for tax credits and other energy incentives. Because you’re not generating any greenhouse gasses, you may also be able to sell your emissions credits under any future cap and trade system. And if you generate excess power, you can sell that power directly back to your local utility.

To discover more about CLNO, please visit: http://www.cleantechtransitinc.com/

Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE:MJN) announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2011. Net sales of $933.9 million in the quarter were up 15 percent versus the third quarter of 2010. Excluding the favorable impact of foreign exchange, sales increased 11 percent. GAAP net earnings of $0.70 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2011 increased from $0.52 per diluted share in 2010.

Mead Johnson, a global leader in pediatric nutrition, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes more than 70 products in over 50 countries worldwide. The company�s mission is to nourish the world�s children for the best start in life.

BorgWarner Inc. (NYSE:BWA) produces engine timing systems, exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) tubes and Instant Start Systems for Ford’s new Duratorq TDCi Global Euro 5 engine family, which launched in several countries recently. The engine family includes the I4 2.2-liter and I5 3.2-liter diesel engines that power the Ford Transit, Fiat Ducato, PSA Boxer, LR Defender and Ford T6-GCP-Ranger.

Auburn Hills, Michigan-based BorgWarner Inc. is a product leader in highly engineered components and systems for vehicle powertrain applications worldwide. The company operates manufacturing and technical facilities in 59 locations in 19 countries.

The Facts Of A Gold 401k

Since the ancient days male has worked tirelessly to come up with means of payment in diverse types. All the techniques of legitimate tender fizzle as soon as in awhile and the unit of currency will definitely release its value. Acquiring gold 401k has indeed turned out to be one of the most effective techniques of protecting your tough obtained money. While many of the origins of the failure might be natural some of them are man-made. When a nation starts to issue even more cash to encompass expenses, there is a most likely hood that the legal tender are going to come tumbling down. Being prepared for such probability is what scheduled the rich thoughts aside from the rest.

The investment has actually also emerged as stable due to the reality that is has an international expense. It is among the most steady investments considering that it is certainly not like premises or stock which is majorly influenced by outside aspects. Stock and home are easily affected by the neighborhood or smaller sized economy hence becoming extremely unstable. Understand that the assets market are able to reduce in incredibly short timeframe and offer you downright zeros. Although incomes attained are certainly not incredible they have fewer possibilities and will certainly take some time for the economic basket to increase.

Over the recent ten years the value of gold has actually relished to over 600 percent. Most providers are going to just share a couple keys of why this is the circumstances however one detail that sticks out is the truth that gold is self maintainable.

When buying the gold one wants to understand that is additional of defense against failure that are able to take place in an over night. It is about staying clear of the repercussions of devaluation of the cash in the respective nation. It hard and uncomfortable to realize one day that all the saving and anything that you have worked in a life time is useless. Smart thoughts choose to take steps to ensure that anything is well covered and sustain its well worth. With this kind of awareness you are bound to be important in a lifespan.

Buying the gold market has several perks. A great monetary organization shall make it possible for you to make the precise alternatives that will ensure you acquire the benefits. Gold is suggested because of its security and a dependable establishment is all you require to be on the protected hands. This is not indicated to alarm you yet recommend you as needed by imparting the proper knowledge for a better future. Understand that the value are going to continually be on the boost over the years and it this is a reality that is virtually guaranteed.

If you are take into account investing into a 401k backed by gold then satisfy appointment this site – GoldGovernor.com for some excellent information.

To Apple Or Not To Apple? That Is The Investing Question

There’s no denying that Apple (APPL) is a company that stirs up strong emotions in people, polarizing most consumes into two groups: those who are brand-loyal to Apple products and strongly against buying them. There’s also denying that Apple is one of the most successful companies in the world and a choice stock for investors. Quite a lot of Apple’s stock performance is related to and influenced by the release of popular products such as the iPod, iPhone, and iPad.

A huge contributor to their success is their CEO, Steve Jobs. Their stocks have jumped since he as returned to the company. A company called StockFront now has a tool to helps investors understand the products that makes Apple’s stock move.

As a matter of fact, there are about a dozen drivers that affect the performance of all stocks traded on the market. StockFront has introduced a new tool to help investor’s discover and dissect these drivers and their overall effect on the investor’s portfolio.

Size is a major factor driving Apple’s stock price. Apple’s market capitalization is substantially above average. When investors are seeking the security of quality, established companies, they are likely to buy stock in a larger than average company, such as Apple.

Another factor is growth, which measures how quickly or slowly a company’s earnings grow. Apple’s stock is considered high growth, earning more money faster than most companies. Apple is also one of the most commonly traded stocks on the market.

Unfortunately, this high trading volume means that Apple’s stock price is more heavily influenced by passing sentiment than by the company’s actual results Those interested in investing in Apple should take notice of driver exposures related to size, growth, and trading volume, as they can have a serious effect on stock price and performance.

Using a tool like StockFront offers insight to better understand what is causing a stocks increase. Understanding this helps investors to make wise decisions to improve their portfolio performance by choosing stocks that help neutralize the influence on the performance of some stocks.

Before you buy Apple stock – or any other other company’s – first look at what drivers affect the stock price and it’s movement in the market.

Stockfront has released a suite of tools previously only available to sophisticated hedge fund investors. Stock buying research, tips, recommendations, and more – all instantly updated!

February ETF Performance: Improvement Over Previous Month

On the heels of record growth in 2009 came January’s figures about ETFs , and the news wasn’t good. Now that February’s numbers are in, though, January’s bummer may soon become a distant memory.

Assets in ETFs and exchange traded notes at the end of February totaled $765 billion, up from January’s total of $745 billion.

More facts and figures:

  • The number of listed products totaled 964, compared to 843 listed products a year earlier.
  • February 2010 net cash inflows from all ETFs/ETNs totaled approximately $5.4 billion. The total month to month increase was 66%.

Fixed-income products continue to be where it’s at for investors who are seeking income and safe havens, with $2.3 billion in net inflows for February 2010, and a category-leading $5.4 billion year-to-date.

U.S. equities also enjoyed a resurgence of sorts after appearing to be out of favor for much of 2009. Domestic equities posted monthly net cash inflows of over $5.8 billion for February 2010, following last month’s record net cash outflows for the category of over $19.6 billion.

For more facts and figures about ETFs, visit our performance report category.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Could Be A Cause For Investor Concern

By Amy Calistri

Investors have been asking me about this stock for weeks. And I don't blame them - the stock is yielding more than 18% right now. This high yield comes on top of a 7-million share buyback announcement this company made just weeks ago.

But underneath the seemingly good news are some serious questions. And they suggest Invesco Mortgage Capital (NYSE:IVR) might be in trouble.

IVR is a mortgage real-state investment trust (REIT). The company borrows money or raises capital at cheap rates, and then uses this money to buy mortgage-backed securities -- pooled groups of mortgages -- that pay higher yields.

For instance, a mortgage REIT might take out a loan at 2%, invest in a pool of mortgages earning 5% and then pocket the difference. The difference between borrowing costs and what it earns on the basket of mortgages is called the "spread." The larger the spread, the more money the REIT earns and the more money available to distribute to investors.

But aren't mortgage REITs risky? Aren't the mortgage-backed securities they invest in the same ones that led to the housing crisis?

Well, when it comes to mortgage-backed securities, there are two kinds. Some mortgage REITs primarily own mortgage-backed securities backed by agencies such as Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) and Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB). Fannie and Freddie are, in turn, backed by the government. This means these mortgage-backed securities are essentially guaranteed by Uncle Sam, which makes the securities pretty safe.

On the other side of the coin, REITs can make more income on mortgage-backed securities that aren't guaranteed by these agencies. This means they can make more money, but then they are on the hook if the mortgage goes into default.

The value of non-agency guaranteed securities has been dropping. And IVR holds a slug of non-agency mortgage-backed securities -- making up roughly one-third of its portfolio.

IVR also saw a decrease in net income in the quarter ended Sept. 30, dropping to $0.79 per share from $1.01 a year earlier. And this could be an ongoing concern. In a recent article from Bloomberg, the company's chief investment officer said during the past two months, IVR was having to pay higher short-term borrowing rates due to the riskiness of its portfolio holdings.

Meanwhile, the REIT has continued to cut its dividend. In March, it made a payment of $1.00 per share. The dividend then fell to $0.97 per share, then to $0.80 and then to $0.65 per share in the most recent quarter. This makes the current yield of more than 18% questionable at best.

Most mortgage REITs are adding to their portfolios in an effort to generate enough income to support their dividends. And IVR has done that in the past year. But in a surprising move, on Dec. 13, the REIT announced a share buyback plan that would allow it to repurchase up to seven million shares. The resulting fewer shares on the open market could marginally support net income on a per-share basis. However, it doesn't begin to offset the 60 million new shares it issued in 2011 alone.

I'm not sure I understand IVR's plan to maintain its dividend. Of the mortgage REITs I have studied in the past two months, IVR is the one I would be most concerned about holding. It could very well bounce from here in the short term, but I'm not comfortable with its position for the long term, even with a high yield.

Disclosure: Neither Amy Calistri nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.

Original post

Chevy Offers Money-Back Guarantee on New Vehicles



DETROIT (AP) - Chevrolet is trying to pull more customers into its dealerships this summer by offering a money-back guarantee on new cars and trucks.

The General Motors (GM) brand said Tuesday that buyers can get refunds if they return their 2012 or 2013 vehicles for any reason. The guarantee lasts for up to 60 days from the date of purchase, and the offer ends Sept. 4.

Chevy Marketing Chief Chris Perry says research shows that customers like it when companies show confidence in their cars and trucks.

Customers will get the same discounted price as GM offers to employees of parts supply companies, plus any other discounts such as rebates or low-interest financing. If customers aren't satisfied with the vehicle, GM will refund the purchase price.

Returned vehicles can't have more than 4,000 miles on them and they can't be damaged.

It's not the first time an automaker has offered a money-back guarantee. GM made a similar offer in September of 2009 to boost sales as it exited bankruptcy protection. Also, when unemployment was sky-high in 2009, Hyundai Motor Corp. let customers return vehicles within the first year of ownership if they lost their jobs.

Chevrolet could use a sales boost from the guarantee. During the first half of the year, its sales grew 6.3 percent to almost 962,000 cars and trucks. But the brand is growing at less than half the rate of overall U.S. auto sales. The total U.S. auto market grew almost 15 percent from January through June.

Chevy is by far GM's most important brand. In the U.S., it accounts for more than 73 percent of the company's sales, according to Autodata Corp.

GM sales overall grew only 4.3 percent in the U.S. during the first half, pulled down by sagging sales of the Cadillac and Buick brands.

Globally, Chevy sold a record 4.76 million cars and trucks last year, and the brand had its best first quarter ever with 1.18 million sales worldwide. GM will release first-half global sales figures on Aug. 2.

Chevy also is offering no-haggle prices to clear out its 2012 models. Chevy is trying to clear out older versions of its two top-selling products, the Malibu midsize car and the Silverado pickup truck. New Malibus are hitting showrooms en masse later this month, and new Silverados arrive next spring.

Shares of GM fell 9 cents to $20.13 in morning trading Tuesday. They have lost more than one-third of their value since GM returned to the stock market with an initial public offering in November of 2010.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

QCOM: Lazard Starts at Buy; Riding Complexity

Lazard Capital Markets chip analyst Ian Ing today started coverage of Qualcomm (QCOM) with a Buy rating and a $67 price target, based on the premise that people will spend more and more of their budgets on smartphones and other “connected devices,” and as complexity proliferates in wireless networks, increasing sales of the company’s wireless chips.

Qualcomm has two parts to its business, the chipset part, which sells components, and the licensing business, which makes royalties by letting others use Qualcomm’s intellectual property.

Regarding chip sales, Ing thinks Qualcomm’s experience makes it a preferred provider of basebands among equipment makers and also among telcos:

We believe investors should not underestimate the system engineering challenges and experience curve required to help OEMs qualify their radios on a global carrier�s network [...] Qualcomm is uniquely positioned to support global multi-mode 3G/4G standards in an integrated modem. Among OEMs, we believe AAPL is taking the initiative for common platform world phones that work across all major carriers. Other leading OEMs (Samsung, HTC, Nokia) still appear to develop tailored platforms for groups of carriers (e.g., WCDMA, CDMA2K). That said, they could choose the common platform approach should their models rival iPhones across global markets. AAPL has decided that manufacturing, supplier, and SKU management savings given their high volumes offsets supporting extra functionality that may not be necessarily needed once deployed at a specific carrier.

As far as the royalty business, it should prosper as more advanced phones flood the world, boosting the royalty-generating units for Qualcomm’s technology:

We estimate QCOM collected royalties on about 40% of handset units in CY10, which were largely based on 3G/4G technologies as well as IS-95 2G CDMA (i.e., Verizon, Sprint). QCOM does not collect royalties on 2G/Edge handsets. Over the next four years, we expect the 3G/4G mix to increase to over 65% of handsets and drive a larger royalty base. We note that presently well over 90% of subscribers in China and India (> 1.5B subscriptions) are on 2G/Edge, and will start making the move to 3G/4G as operators continue rolling out new 3G networks.

Qualcomm shares today closed up 6 cents at $52.61.


About Those 42,200 New Courier Jobs

Now, here’s a case where seasonal adjustments are badly trailing developments in the real world as the recent increase in online purchases around the holidays – and the resulting delivery of those goods – has, presumably, caused the hiring of couriers to spike along with other holiday-related activities in December.

Here’s what the Labor Department’s “Couriers and messengers” subcategory looks like before and after seasonal adjustments are applied to the data:

(Click charts to enlarge)

Seasonal adjustments are supposed to “smooth” out these regular trends, but, for this data series, they are failing badly. Unfortunately, this is not good news for the jobs data that will be reported a month from now because, as shown above for both 2010 and 2011, those outsized seasonally adjusted job gains for couriers in December suddenly turn into big job losses – 40,800 and 48,700, respectively – which should put a damper on the January data.

AAPL: iPad Downloads Soar, Says ABI; Will ‘Sandwich’ Close Gap?

Research firm ABI Research today reports that users of Apple’s (AAPL) iPad have downloaded apps for the device�3 billion times the introduction of the first model in April of 2010, which the firm says is a faster adoption rate than was the case for the iPhone with respect to apps.

ABI compares the year-and-a-half the iPad has taken to achieve that milestone, versus two years for the iPhone. However, the article doesn’t note that the iPhone did not gain the ability to run apps at all until 2008, over six months after it first hit the market.

In any event, the report notes that users of tablet computers based on Google’s (GOOG) “Android” operating system have downloaded only 440 million applications, by its count.

ABI’s Dan Shey credits greater quality of the iPad as prompting a greater rate of downloads — though I would assume that it also has something to do with there being a greater number of iPads in people’s hands�

But Shey and company conclude that Android will get more traction with the newest implementation:

However, things are expected to change as manufacturers adopt the recently-released Android 4.0, Ice Cream Sandwich, as well as accelerate product development to close up the specifications gap between their tablets, such as the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle Fire and the iPad.

I’m not completely sure of the methodology used by ABI to compile their totals and their forecasts. I have a call in to the firm to try and clarify.

GM Maps Future by Revamping Management Team

When General Motors Corp.'s (NYSE: GRM) Chief Executive Officer Fritz Henderson resigned last week, it not only set off a comprehensive management shakeup at the highest levels, it also signaled an entirely new direction for the beleaguered carmaker's future.

Henderson's resignation was the definitive moment in the changing of the guard at GM, and the death knell for a culture built on a "business as usual" mind-set.

That much was made clear by new Chairman and Interim CEO Ed Whitacre Jr. as he laid out his vision for the company's future for about 800 high-level employees at a meeting last week.

Whitacre's address emphasized his determination to remake the Detroit automaker into a company "able to respond quickly to changes in the market, while still retaining the global scope necessary to develop world-class products and technologies."

The shakeup comes after the company slashed costs and headcount in order to restructure and emerge from the bankruptcy it filed last June. In the United States, it will be left with only 34 assembly plants, down from 47 in 2008, and its headcount will decline from roughly 91,000 at the end of 2008 to about 64,000 by the end of 2009.

In order to make the reductions the company has been forced to cut its catalog offerings to four primary brands: Cadillac, Chevrolet, Buick and GMC. Gone are Saab, Saturn, Hummer and Pontiac. It is in negotiations with Eurozone governments to determine the fate of its Opel brand.

Whitacre hopes his changes have set GM on a new course -- a direction for the future dependent on an aggressive management team that can recapture market share on the home front with new products, while leading expansion into emerging markets crucial for long term growth.

Killing the Old BureaucracyWhitacre and GM's board forced Henderson out after only eight months, frustrated with the pace of change and his efforts to transform the company from years of declining market share and tainted consumer perceptions.

Whitacre, the former CEO at AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), has said he wants to speed up changes so the company can boost sales and market share and repay much of $52 billion in government loans with a public stock offering.

As he announced sweeping changes to key management positions, Whitacre urged the automaker's employees to leave behind the old bureaucratic culture, assuring them they would not be fired for taking risks.

"We want you to step up. We don't want any bureaucracy," Whitacre told employees, strolling back and forth across a stage at the company's headquarters, according a report on the meeting by The Associated Press. "We're not going to make it if you won't take a risk."

Whitacre said that he's tired of ideas sitting on desks "while we wrangle," and encouraged employees to initiate and accelerate change during the 45-minute speech broadcast to employees worldwide on the Internet.

He appointed 77-year-old Bob Lutz as his adviser for product development, and promoted many of the company's younger executives, while reversing some of Henderson's changes.

"Maximum Bob," an auto industry veteran and chief cheerleader for the upcoming Chevy Volt, will be responsible for "all creative elements of products," as well as customer relationships.

Lutz would seem the perfect foil for the company's old culture, having a long history of challenging the status quo. When Lutz returned to GM in 2001 after 30 years with other companies, he quickly grew tired of GM's numbers-oriented bureaucracy, printing up post-it notes that asked, "Says Who?"

In an e-mail, Lutz ushered in the new era when he said Whitacre will hold people accountable.

"He expects people to execute. Otherwise, he will replace them," Lutz said.

A Big Bet on ChinaGM's survival hinges on its efforts to expand its presence in Asia and compete successfully on the world stage by offering products that stir consumer demand.

Global automobile sales are undergoing a major reorientation towards Asia and away from the United States and Europe, as manufacturers in China and India continue to advance.

In 2009, the cheap-money policy of the People's Bank of China helped China leapfrog the U.S. to become the largest car market in the world. From January to October, a whopping 10.9 million automobiles were sold in China - easily surpassing the United States, where only 8.6 million vehicles were sold.

GM has become the second-largest automaker in China mainly through a 50-50 venture with its Chinese partner SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd., which makes a wide range of GM-designed cars. In fact, the Detroit auto giant announced it sold more vehicles in China in November than in its home market of the United States, reaching 177,339 vehicles.

That's double the number of cars sold in China a year ago, and enough to boost GM's share of the burgeoning Chinese market by 13%, a spokesman for the company told AFP.

And now, GM and SAIC have reached an agreement to make small cars and commercial vehicles in India, taking their 12-year Chinese partnership into one of the world's fastest growing auto markets, according to a report by The New York Times.

"We have had a successful relationship with them for 12 years," Nick Reilly, president of GM's international operations, told reporters on a conference call last Friday. "It seems to us very sensible and a big opportunity to broaden that relationship outside China."

The India joint venture, in which SAIC will invest cash and GM will contribute existing Indian assets, aims to sell 225,000 vehicles a year in the next couple of years, Reilly said.

An Edge in Battery TechnologyOn May 19, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama raised the average fuel economy standards for new cars to 39 MPG and 27 MPG for trucks and moved up the deadline for meeting those standards to 2016.

The change guaranteed that more plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) will be on the road soon, with automakers like Daimler AG's (NYSE: DAI) Mercedes-Benz unit, Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC ADR: NSANY), Tesla Motors Inc. and old rival Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) racing to revamp their product lines with alternative energy solutions.

But GM feels it has an ace in the hole with the cutting-edge lithium-ion battery technology powering its new PHEV, the Chevy Volt.

The Volt's battery packs will deliver three times as much energy per pound as the nickel-metal based batteries weighing down the Japanese hybrids, and are so advanced they feature dedicated on board computer controls to manage electric-power flow and heating and cooling equipment.

With fully charged batteries the Volt is designed to cruise for up to 40 miles without touching a drop of gas - the average distance 75% of Americans travel on their daily commute. After a recharge from the internal combustion engine, the Volt should easily average over 100 MPG.

The car is so important to GM's future that before he resigned, Henderson called the new technology "the lifeblood of the future."

Currently, more than 13,000 people have signed up on GM's waiting list and the company is projecting the initial product launch may require over 100,000 vehicles.

News & Related Story Links:

  • Money Morning:
    GM's Search for CEO Won't Likely Be Part of the "Old Guard"
  • The Associated Press:
    GM CEO shuffles managers, seeks culture change
  • Money Morning:
    The "New" GM: What Will it Look Like, and How Far Will it Go?
  • Money Morning:
    Tata Targets Jaguar and Land Rover for Long-Term Returns
  • Money Morning:
    Auto Industry moves to India and China
  • AFP:
    GM's China sales speed past those in US
  • The New York Times:
    G.M. to Sell Stakes to Chinese Partner

FOREX-Dollar close to six-week high, debt risks loom – Reuters

Best SyndicationFOREX-Dollar close to six-week high, debt risks loom
Reuters
LONDON, Nov 22 – The US dollar stayed within sight of a six-week high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as concerns that politicians on both sides of the Atlantic were failing to tackle huge debt burdens weighed on investor …
WORLD FOREX: Global Econ Fears Pummel High-Yielding CurrenciesWall Street Journal
FOREX: Dollar Aims Higher On Risk Aversion, Euro Looks To ECB For HelpTheStreet.com
Forex: Euro outlook weighed by slower growth � DailyFXNASDAQ
Best Syndication -ForexTV.com
all 164 news articles »

{forex} – Forex News

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Recommended Equity Allocation Ticks Lower

Bloomberg tracks the recommended allocations for stocks, bonds, and cash by Wall Street strategists on a weekly basis. In the first 8 months of 2010, the recommended equity allocation remained right around 60% even as the market bounced up and down. Since the start of October, however, the recommended allocation has ticked lower to 57.67%.

While this might not seem like much, it is a pretty big drop considering the range in which the allocation has historically traded. The chart below (click to enlarge) shows the recommended equity weighting for portfolios since the start of 2008. The recommended weighting is typically a lagging indicator that will peak after the market peaks and bottom after the market bottoms.

At the moment, however, the reading has dropped lower just as the market has been heading higher. Do strategists know something that the market doesn't?

TGIF: The Fix Is In

It’s amazing - it’s fantastic - it's… stupid!

Not STUPID, like Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy and Dubai - who are also in major financial crisis - but stupid like because a boy put a finger in the dike we don’t have to evacuate the town anymore and, in fact, we’re going to build a whole new section of town out of paper houses right next to the dike to show how much we don’t worry about getting wet any more. That’s the global economy in a nutshell - we freak out if anyone says a bad word about it, but then we are overjoyed if someone else says it’s all fixed - even if it’s the same person both times…

Manic depression is a disorder where people are subject to extreme mood swings, going from feeling very sad, despairing, helpless, worthless, and hopeless (depression) to feeling as if they are on top of the world, hyperactive, creative, and grandiose (mania). This disease is called bipolar disorder because the mood of a person can alternate between two completely opposite poles, euphoric happiness and extreme sadness. The extremes of mood usually occur in cycles and tend to become closer together with age and, according to EMed: "Extreme mania can lead to aggressive behavior, potentially dangerous risk-taking behaviors." Hmm, does this sound like any markets we know?

The behavior of the EU and other world leaders is starting to look more and more insane every day. Yesterday Greece was literally saved in the morning, screwed in the afternoon and saved again in the evening (holding up so far this morning) and the Dow went from 10,830 to 10,950 and back to 10,840 during its session. I’ve dated girls like this - that’s why we moved to CASH last week! More and more our World leaders are starting to sound like the Joker in the last Batman movie, who said:

"Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I’m a dog chasing cars. I wouldn’t know what to do with one if I caught it. You know, I just… do things… Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it’s all "part of the plan." Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos."

Speaking of chaos, our final GDP figure has been revised down 0.3% to 5.6% and the chain-weighted price index has been revised up 20% to 0.5% and the PCE has also been revised up 20% to 2.5% - so people aren’t buying more things, but the things they are buying are costing them more - now that’s progress! Unfortunately, our American wage slaves are making no progress at all as Personal Income drops across the country. Nevada was hit hardest with workers making 4.8% less in 2009 than they did in 2008, Californians lost 3.5% of their incomes and VP Cheney’s homies in Wyoming lost 3.9% while Bush’s buddies in Texas fell 3.5% too. The new regime in DC and the good people of West Virginia fared best with a 2.1% increase (voting for Obama didn’t help as New York took a 3.8% hit) but it wasn’t enough to pull up lost wages in 42 states that gave us a national average of -1.7%. Don’t worry though, if you were in the top 10% last year, you did very well and the top 0.1% scooped up all those lost wages and more, adding an average of 14% to their incomes in 2009.

None of that matters because, even though there is no plan at all to help the bottom 90% get jobs or even to help them earn the same amount of money for the same job they had last year, at least we have a plan to give MORE FREE MONEY to the banks as the administration finds yet another way to hand out cash by tapping the $700Bn TARP fund to pay the banks to modify the mortgages on homes that people can’t afford to pay for anyway.

I want to cut through the BS and just say this is like the government paying you to sell stocks that have gone lower on you - nice deal if you can get it! Somehow the banks in this country are no longer investors at all - apparently EVERY loan they have ever written must be repaid - either by the consumer or the government. This is especially fascinating as the banks still get to keep all those years of "risk premium" they’ve been charging even though, as it turns out, they never actually had any risk. Not only that but, even given the current facts that we do not let loans fail - the banks STILL have the nerve to charge risk premiums - as if there were some chance they won’t get paid in the future. It’s GOOD to be a bank!

Asia was thrilled this morning, although the Hang Seng wasn’t acually thrilled until 2:58, when it was stuck around 20,850 on a flat day, but by 3:04 they were back at 21,100 so all must be well in Asia as they held most of that 250-points-in-6-minutes gain to finish the day at 21,053. Remember - it doesn’t matter HOW you go up, as long as it looks like you went up for the day. Also looking "marvelous" on the 1-day chart were the Nikkei (up 1.5%), the Shanghai (up 1.3%) and the BSE (up 0.5%) even though Japan’s CPI dropped yet another deflationary 1.2%.

Europe is not all that excited about Greece this morning and down almost half a point across the board. Toyota (TM) sales are so bad in Europe that they are shutting down production for 12 days and 11 UBS (UBS) and Cazenove workers are being charged in London with an insider-trading scandal while JPM (JPM), Lehman and UBS (again) are named as conspirators in a bid-rigging case. Don’t worry - I’m sure they have a plan to fix this and I’m sure that plan involves GIVING THEM MORE FREE MONEY!

Like the Joker says: "Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is HORRIFYING!"

Have a great weekend,

Phil

5 Utility Stocks to Brighten Your Portfolio

It�s no secret that many investors love utilities stocks because they are stable performers, regardless of the economy.� After all, you can bike or bus to work, swap that pricey latte for a basic cup of Joe and nosh on ramen � but you still need to keep the lights on.��

Utilities are less volatile because they are regulated monopolies and can pass on increased costs to customers. Regulators still have to approve rate hikes, but those requests seldom are denied.

Utility stocks offer many other attractive perks as well: they pay out nice dividends, don�t suffer wild price fluctuation and still offer conservative growth.� That makes the right utilities that rare blend of strength, stability, income and growth that investors can hold for a long time.

Here are five good names to consider for your portfolio:

Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK): Charlotte, N.C.-based Duke Energy generates electricity in the Carolinas and the Midwest and offers natural gas distribution services in Ohio and Kentucky.� The company has announced plans to acquire its neighbor, Raleigh, N.C.-based Progress Energy (NYSE PGN), in a $13.7 billion deal.� If regulators approve the acquisition, the combined company would become the largest power company in the U.S., with more than 7.1 million electricity customers in the Carolinas, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio.� Duke is trading 3.4% above its 50-day moving average and has a dividend yield of 5.3%.

Empire District Electric (NYSE:EDE): Empire is a Missouri-based utility providing electric, natural gas and water service to about 215,000 customers in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Empire also offers fiber optic services. Rate increases were responsible for raising revenues in the company�s electric segment by nearly 13% over the prior year.� Empire has a 5.7% dividend yield and is trading nearly 4% above its 50-day moving average.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (NYSE:BIP): Brookfield owns and operates utilities, transport and energy, and timber assets around the world.� Similar to a real estate investment trust, Brookfield uses funds from operations (FFO) to report cash flow. The company�s utilities segment generated FFO of $144 million in 2010.� Brookfield has a 5.3% dividend yield and is trading more than 5% over its 50-day moving average.

Pepco (NYSE:POM):�This company�is one of the largest energy delivery companies in the Mid-Atlantic region, serving about 1.9 million customers in D.C., Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey. The company recently took a hit over frequent, wide-ranging and prolonged outages from winter storms.� Even so, PEPCO is trading more than 5% above its 50-day moving average and has a dividend yield of 5.6%.

First Energy (NYSE:FE): The Ohio-based utility has had to deal with outages from the intense spring storms that have pummeled the Midwest.� First Energy�s 10 electric distribution companies generate and deliver electricity, natural gas, clean coal and renewable energy to 4 million customers.� The company�s stock is trading nearly 5.7% above its 50-day moving average and has a dividend yield of 5.5%.

Bottom Line: All of these stocks have strong fundamentals and pay healthy dividends. They�re also trading above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages � a dynamic that can indicate a long-term uptrend. So while these utility stocks are not going to give you the wild ride of many tech stocks and small-caps, they�re solid, conservative investments that can give good returns with lower risk.

As of this writing, Susan J. Aluise did not old an interest in any of the stocks mentioned here.

Dow breaks 3-week winning streak

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended mostly lower Friday as jittery investors digested a weaker-than-expected economic growth report and as Europe's debt crisis still loomed in the background.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 74 points, or 0.6%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq (COMP) managed to gain ground, adding 11 points, or 0.4%.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 logged a fourth straight week of gains, but the day's declines in the Dow put the blue chip index in negative territory for the week, down 0.5%.

Friday's slump came as investors reacted to the government's first reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. The United States economy picked up speed at the end of 2011, growing at an annual rate of 2.8%, as consumers increased their spending. But the data fell short of the 3.2% forecast, based on a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

While the worse-than-expected figure is disheartening, "the real disappointment is in the details" of the report, said Mark Chandler, global head of currency at Brown Brothers Harriman. Inventories rose during the quarter, accounting for a large part of the growth, but consumption growth, a measure of demand, was weak.

Investors had been hoping for news that would back up growing optimism about the nation's economic recovery. Instead, the news seemed to jive with the Federal Reserve's lower outlook for the economy.

The Fed announced Wednesday that it plans to keep the federal funds rate near zero until late 2014, because the recovery remains too slow to warrant higher interest rates any time soon.

Anxiety also continues to loom over Greece's ongoing negotiations with private-sector creditors in an attempt to reduce its debt burden. Without an agreement, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that's due March 20.

In addition, Fitch downgraded the sovereign debt ratings of five European countries, including Italy and Spain, which took the biggest hits.

Europe's Debt Crisis

U.S. stocks ended in the red Thursday, as investors digested a mixed batch of corporate earnings results, and remained cautious amid lackluster economic data and the continuing debt talks in Greece.

Companies: Earnings reports were also weighing on the market on Friday.

Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) was the worst performing stock on the Dow. Shares sank 2.5% after the company posted its biggest drop in quarterly earnings in two years and widely missed Wall Street's estimates.

Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) was also a big decliner on the Dow. Shares of the maker of Tide detergent, Crest toothpaste and Pringles snacks fell after the company lowered its outlook for the year.

An 5.4% drop in shares of DeVry (DV) was a big factor in the S&P 500's slide. The for-profit educator's earnings plunged 90% and undergraduate enrollment continued to decline.

Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) was a big loser on the Nasdaq. While the coffee chain beat forecasts with strong earnings and revenue in its fourth quarter, shares slipped as investors were underwhelmed by the company's profit outlook for the future.

Ford (F, Fortune 500), aided by a one-time gain, posted 2011 profit of $20.2 billion -- its biggest since 1998. But for the quarter alone, earnings missed forecasts, and shares tumbled.

On the flip side, shares of Newell Rubbermaid (NWL, Fortune 500) and Eastman Chemical (EMN, Fortune 500) were big winners on the S&P 500 on the back of strong earnings.

Transocean (RIG) shares rose after a federal judge cleared the company of some damages related to the Deepwater Horizon spill, because it was shielded by a contract with well-owner BP. BP (BP) shares slumped.

Meanwhile, the Social Media ETF (SOCL) spiked 5% on news that Facebook is planning to file IPO registration papers next Wednesday, according to the The Wall Street Journal. Shares of social media companies LinkedIn (LNKD), Pandora (P), Groupon (GRPN) and Zynga (ZNGA) also popped following the report.

World markets: European stocks finished lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) dropped about 1%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany fell 0.2%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) was flat. Shanghai wrapped up a week-long celebration for Chinese New Year.

Economy: The University of Michigan's final installment of its January Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 75, up from an initial reading of 74. Economists were expecting the index to come in at 74.2.

Why Soros thinks the euro will survive

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery edged down 14 cents to settle at $99.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery rose $5.50 to $1,732.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose slightly, pushing the yield down to 1.90% from 1.93% late Thursday.  

Gold, Silver Climb to End Dismal Week on a High Note

Gold and silver prices lifted amid Friday’s U.S. market equity gains and rising grain and energy prices.

Gold futures recovered from a dismal week with sharp increases Friday, jumping 1.7% at a final bid of $1,591.60 per ounce, according to CME Group data. Gold reached a high of $1,596.50 and a low of $1,565.60.

4 Regional Banks That Beat the Big Boys

Silver futures finished the day up about 0.8 %, with a final bid of $27.35. Friday’s high for silver prices reached $27.48, and the low was $27.05.

Gold bullion ended at $1,593 per ounce for Friday’s trading session in London, according to BullionVault.

“Gold has been a range trade with a bearish bias given the progressively lower highs since late February,” according to the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Gold and silver trusts climbed across the board Friday.

  • The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) was up about 1.1%.
  • The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) was about 1.1% higher.
  • The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) climbed about 0.3%.

Gold- and silver-mining ETFs all showed healthy gains Friday.

  • The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) rose about 1.5%.
  • The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ) climbed about 2.5%.
  • The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL) was about 1.2% lower.

Gold-mining shares showed widespread impressive gains Friday, with Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) and NovaGold Resources (AMEX:NG) leading the way.

  • Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) gained about 1.6%.
  • Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) was up about 0.8%.�
  • Eldorado Gold (NYSE:EGO) showed gains of around 0.2%.
  • Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) was up 2.7%.
  • Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) was more than� 6.7% higher.
  • Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) jumped about 1.5%.
  • NovaGold Resources (AMEX:NG) was up close to 6%.
  • Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) was up about 0.8%.

Silver-mining shares were mixed Friday.

  • Coeur d’Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) dipped about 0.2%.
  • Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) was flat.
  • Pan American Silver (NASDAQ:PAAS) was around 0.5% higher.
  • Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) dipped around 0.5%.
  • Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ:SSRI) rose 0.6%.

As of this writing, Angela Nazworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Adrian Ash of BullionVault�contributed to this report.

U.S. job growth seen tapering off slightly

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

U.S. employment report for March should help clarify the economic picture after an unusually warm winter helped boost growth early in 2012. See full story.

Stock funds star in blockbuster 2012 opener

U.S. stock investors came out of 2011�s �hunger games� secure that both the U.S. and Europe had survived a treacherous year, and they gave 2012 a powerful, profitable opening to rival any Hollywood blockbuster. But we�ve seen this movie before. See full story.

Fund, ETF investors could see global gains fade

Stock-fund and ETF investors venturing outside of the U.S. waded into calmer waters in the first quarter, but rough currents lie ahead. Positioning portfolios against such uncertainties will dominate investors� attention. See full story.

Bond fund investors ride out market�s bumps

If the first quarter is any indicator, bond market behavior may finally reflect the �new normal� that Pimco�s Bill Gross and others first started talking about a few years back. See full story.

How to boost your investing stamina

Research indicates that for most investors, doing nothing may be their best path to portfolio success, writes Steve Beck of MarketRiders. See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

Instead of acknowledging that banks have become a part of government, we keep pretending they are private institutions, writes David Weidner. See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Is the state that you have designs on retiring to tax friendly or not? And the basic questions to answer are these: How does the state tax your income? How does it tax your property and your consumption? And what�s the overall tax burden? See full story.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

3 Great Ways To Get Your Guesthouse

Love having the folks over but hate waking up to them rustling the newspaper or waiting for them to get out of the bathroom after they carried said paper in there half an hour ago? A guesthouse may be worth considering.

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Whether you need some personal space, have run out of space in your existing home and want to spread out or just want another source of income, a guesthouse or even a modest guest apartment can meet all of those needs. Just make sure you're doing it for your own enjoyment and not for some imagined pay day down the road.

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"People making additions and renovations or converting space to a guesthouse should be doing that because it's going to enhance their lifestyle and enjoyment of the property," says Frank Gregoire, a realtor and appraiser at Gregoire & Gregoire in St. Petersburg, Fla. "I don't think there are many cases where it makes sense to spend on an addition or conversion of space if your intent is to resell and recoup costs."Even the people who are going to build your guest home would advise against building it just to help make a sale. The National Association of Homebuilders, already facing a downturn in new home sales that dropped another 0.7% in July and left inventory at a 48-year low thanks to a lack of construction and demand, saw its builder confidence index drop last month after lingering in lukewarm territory for the past six months."Very little has changed in terms of housing market conditions so far this year," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a homebuilder from Reno, Nev. "Builders continue to confront the same challenges in accessing construction credit, obtaining accurate appraisal values for new homes and competing against foreclosed properties that they have seen for some time."Considering the stockpile of houses out there, its a wonder real estate brokers aren't marketing half of them as guesthouses in buy-one-get-one deals. The inventory of new homes on the market in July was 165,000, a 6.6-month supply dwarfed by the 3.6 million previously owned homes in the mix. The average new home price, meanwhile, hit $222,000 in July, while average existing homes sold for $174,000. That gap has widened significantly since 2008 as labor and material costs remain high. Those disparities haven't helped the value of major home projects either. A guesthouse can get costly, but a $232,000 luxury master suite addition that costs about as much as a small cottage only brings back about $122,000 (or 52%) in resale value, according to the 2010-11 Remodeling magazine Cost vs. Value Report. That beats a $75,000 sunroom, which earns back less than half its value once a house hits the market.With help from appraisers, real estate agents, builders and government agencies, we came up with the three easiest ways to get the guesthome you've always dreamed of without incurring a lifetime of nightmarish payments:

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1. Find an existing house and build it a partnerThe 2000s seemed like the decade of the teardown, with the cute little homes of yesteryear being razed for McMansions built like sets for reality television shoots.

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This vastly underestimates the little home's potential as a sturdy guest cabin or a larger vintage home's value as a primary estate. Exactly which direction a buyer takes depends largely on the community they're planning to build in. For example, the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Regulatory Barriers Clearinghouse says that almost all communities require permits to build guest housing, but some such as Greensboro, N.C., place different conditions on those permits depending on whether the original house is attached to the new guest structure or not.Approval of those permits also depends largely on the size of the lot involved. Sacramento County, Calif., requires at least a 5,200-square-foot lot before a property owner can even think about building a guesthouse. Providence, R.I., bumps that up to 25,000 square feet if you want to build servants' quarters, while Charlotte, N.C., shuns a specific lot size while insisting the lot be twice the size of the minimum required for building within the main residence's zoning district.It could also hinge on who you plan to have staying in said property on a regular basis."In your bread-and-butter neighborhoods, it's common to use them to generate income," Gregoire says. "If you have a higher-value neighborhood, it's common to use a guesthouse as overflow for out-of-town guests or to put your teenager in there." The regulation of said properties is as diverse as the places they're built in. Charlotte allows secondary buildings to be used as guesthouses, employee quarters or elderly and disabled housing. Providence, meanwhile, will allow an accessory unit, but only if it doesn't have a kitchen. Knoxville, Tenn., shares no such concerns when it comes to letting the guests cook, but limits homes with guest facilities to higher-density areas.Those same communities can also dictate just how large a guesthouse can be in proportion to the primary estate. Greensboro limits it to 1,000 square feet or 30% of the gross floor area of the main residence. Nashville, Tenn., and Ann Arbor, Mich., hold guesthouses to 25% the size of the main house, while Fort Lauderdale, Fla., slaps a 600-square-foot cap on guest quarters unless they're an apartment attached to the main home. In that case, they can be as much as 49% the size of the main living space, but can only have one bedroom and one bathroom.Those guests are also going to need somewhere to park, which is why Santa Clara, Calif., requires at least one off-street space for each guest residence. Ann Arbor is just a touch more conservative in requiring at least three off-street spaces for the main house and guest dwelling. Beyond the basic plumbing and electric, this is a lot of construction in a market that already doesn't reward such effort.If the thought of starting from scratch is a bit scary or if going with a pre-fab option seems to defeat the purpose, you may want to:

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2. Put the guests in the garageFonzie from Happy Days lived in a garage apartment and Mike Seaver from Growing Pains pulled it off when he needed to branch out during his trying teenage years, but you don't have to be a sitcom character to see the value in unused garage space.

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Converting a garage loft to an apartment unit may be just the answer for homeowners hemmed in by zoning restrictions. In Seattle, a guest unit has to be attached to the main dwelling, which makes space over an attached garage ideal. Santa Clara requires that the roof, siding and windows of the accessory unit be consistent with the design of the principal residence. It can also be a cheaper alternative, as Remodeling places the cost of a modest garage addition at $61,000 and a slightly more upscale project at $90,000. That doesn't add windows or make many other aesthetic changes, but it also comes in at far less than a two-story addition ($165,000) or a master suite addition ($108,000 to $232,000).Just realize that you're building it for your guests and not for any notable bump in resale value. A modest garage addition retains 59% of its value when the house is sold, but that master suite and big two-story addition will bring back 63% to 65% of what a homeowner paid for them. If that retail value's a concern and all the work just seems fruitless during this uncertain real estate market, you could always ...

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3. Just buy a guesthouse propertyExisting home prices are still well below pre-recession levels and the 9.4-month supply of homes that the National Association of Realtors says is on the market should keep prices low for a good, long while. With that in mind, why knock yourself out building?

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"In Florida, it costs more to build something than it is to buy something comparable," Gregoire says. "There's an imbalance between supply and demand and, in a situation like that, it's hard to build something new and recoup the money."Buying property with an existing guesthouse not only removes the hassle of seeking approvals, running utilities to the property and running afoul of zoning restrictions, but it does away with some of the guesswork as well. Some of the nastiest surprises don't come while the guesthouse is being built, but when its first tax bill comes."The county property appraisers will base their assessment on the number of living units and the number of square feet of heated area," Gregoire says. "Having an additional guesthouse, rental apartment or in-law apartment is going to result in an increase in the taxable or assessed value of the property." >To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/notteham. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>How To Build Your Dream Home From Scratch>>7 Cheap Places For Foliage Friendly Homes>>7 Places To Get That House In The WoodsFollow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

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4 Networking Companies That Are Poised To Move

In part one of this article, we discussed the importance of networking companies - namely Hewlett Packard (HPQ), F5 (FFIV) and Juniper Networks (JNPR). The premise of the article involves the return of technology spending and where large corporations are most likely to spend their money. The first obvious choices are on the companies that specialize in managing data traffic - essentially the lifeblood of most operations. Here are four more to consider.

Cisco (CSCO)

For quite some time now, Cisco has been considered the gold standard among that group. However there is reason to suspect that the competition for that title is no longer a foregone conclusion. However, I am inclined to look at the entire sector to start to appreciate a little bit more of what each company has to offer in their own right.

In its most recent quarter which ended January 28, Cisco reported net income that climbed 44% and arrived at $2.2 billion, or 40 cents per share. This compares with earnings of $1.5 billion, or 27 cents per share year-over-year. If you factor out that the costs associated with stock-based compensation as well as some acquisition-related amortization, the company actually earned 47 cents per share - 4 cents per share above analysts' expectations based on polls by FactSet. Revenue was $11.5 billion, up 11% from $10.4 billion a year ago and compares favorably to the $11.2 that was projected.

I think that is what analysts continue to ask. As impressed as I am with the report, there continues to be many who are simply unwilling to give the company much (if any) applause for what continues to be a remarkable turnaround from the depths of last summer where Cisco showed little focus whatsoever. Its results clearly demonstrate the company is keen in improving its margins as it reported gross margin that improved a full point from the previous year while also exceeding analyst estimates. However it seems that area of performance is not growing at a rate that appeals to the most ardent bears - at least to the extent where it can prove that it can reclaim some of the market share that it has lost to the competition over the years.

Brocade (BRCD)

Brocade is another interesting story and one that I have recently become enamored with. In its recent Q4 earnings announcement, not only did it beat its projected numbers but it also raised guidance. The question is though, what did it prove? But that is not to take away from the many accomplishments that it has logged this year, especially considering the market's early reaction to its once perceived inability to compete.

Looking at it from a bearish lens, Brocade's Q4 numbers were far from stellar. The company reported flat revenue on a year-over-year basis and less than 10% sequential. Revenue for its network storage service was down 4% from the previous year, but this was offset with an 11% growth from smaller areas of its business - notably IP. But regardless of how one looks at it, it can't be discounted that it did beat consensus estimates on both year-over-year declines and its end of range. To top it off, profitability was a huge plus.

In 2008, the company acquired one of its competitors, Foundry Networks. That was an acquisition that seems to now be paying off. In the deal, management sought to broaden the company a little bit more and place less dependency on its storage business. The other advantage was it wanted to be able to sell networking gear to its existing customer base to provide the services of a one-stop shop, a strategy that is now proven to have worked or at the very least, currently working. Brocade continues to prove that it can do just fine with a small piece of the market pie for now, but there is no denying that it is hungry for a bigger slice.

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)

It appears that there is modest recovery in communications spending for this reason. Things are starting to look more favorable for two the sectors recent underperformers in Alcatel-Lucent and Ciena. Although it is hard to tell of late, the IP and optics businesses for both companies are looking better as well - particularly for ALU. The company's newest routing platform competes extremely well when compared to similar models from Cisco as well as Juniper. Some experts have suggested that it might (in fact) be slightly better.

The company is also seeing an uptick in its wireless segment business and ALU desperately needs this trend to continue. The company has shown that it is not restricted solely to U.S. business as it has managed to get contracts from the three major Chinese service providers in China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom. This is even though competitors Huawei and ZTE are prominent and local. This is nothing short of remarkable. These are not small deals either, and ALU's partnership with China Mobile for a next-generation network could pay large dividends in the years to come.

In the U.S. the company has forged deals with the major carriers such as AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) and they continue to spend large sums of money to upgrade and expand networks. As great as that is, I am intrigued to find out how much margin ALU can draw from this business.

Ciena (CIEN)

Optical networking firm Ciena is one company that I've had my eye on for quite some time and I think that it may be time that other investors do that same. Though its name is seldom mentioned among the ranks of Cisco and HP, the company deserves a considerable amount of credit for (if nothing else) the fact that it still exists today. While some consider Ciena a product of the tech bubble, the company did not actually enter any legitimate discussion until the bubble had already burst. In similar fashion, the end of the bubble sent many of its clients out of business as many of them over-spent on networking equipment.

So this is where the company still ranks today - at the bottom of the list when it comes to the top networking names in the sector. But it does appear to now have a few things working in its favor. Its recent quarterly performances suggest that management has figured out ways to squeeze more margins out of its products. But analysts continue to question whether or not its recent performance is sustainable.

For this reason, I continue to have my own doubts about the company and I'm not yet ready to proclaim that it is a buy just yet. What remains to be seen is whether the company has the ability to produce a second act of profitability and growth. It would need to demonstrate this over a period of (at least) three consecutive quarters for me to feel comfortable that it can run its business effectively. But as prudent as that may be, by then everyone may have figured it out. It's a double-edged sword where risk is the means of profitability. But investors may want to consider some of the names above in anticipation for when technology spending fully returns.

Disclosure: I am long CSCO.

Dividend Stock Analysis: Medtronic

Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) manufactures and sells device-based medical therapies worldwide. Medtronic is a dividend champion which has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1977 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 34 years.

The most recent dividend increase was in June 2011, when the Board of Directors approved a 7.80% increase to 24.25 cents/share. Medtronic's largest competitors include Becton Dickinson (BDX), C.R. Bard (BCR) and Baxter International (BAX).


Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered a negative annualized total return of 0.6% to its shareholders. A major reason for that was the fact that the stock was grossly overvalued in 2001, trading at a P/E of over 60. Click to enlarge:


The company has managed to deliver an increase in EPS of 15.20% per year since 2002. Analysts expect Medtronic to earn $3.46 per share in 2012 and $3.79 per share in 2013. In comparison, Medtronic earned $2.86 /share in 2011. Click to enlarge:



What differentiates Medtronic from its competitors is its scale of operations, diversity and depth of products, focus on emerging markets and its culture of innovation. The company has managed to generate higher sales volumes in the past through strategic acquisitions and organic expansions. Future organic growth will be aided by maintaining and growing its strong product pipeline. The company is also focusing on restructuring and realigning its global operations, which is expected to decrease its annual costs by 20 to 25 cents/share by 2012.

The company has been able to generate consistently high returns on equity in the 18% -23% range over the past decade, with the exception of 2002, 2006 and 2007. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time. Click to enlarge:

The annual dividend payment has increased by 17% per year over the past decade, which is higher than the growth in EPS. Click to enlarge:

A 17% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every four years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1978, we see that Medtronic has actually managed to double its dividend every four years on average.

Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio increased slightly from 25% to almost 29%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings. Click to enlarge:


Currently Medtronic is trading at 11.50 times earnings, yields 2.90% and has a sustainable dividend payout. I find the stock attractively valued per my entry criteria and I will considering adding to my position in the stock as funds become available.

Disclosure: Long MDT