Saturday, January 26, 2013

The Starbucks Earnings Breakdown: Forget the Verismo

The history of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX  ) has been a storied one since the company's beginning, and the latest chapter is shaping up to be an exciting one indeed. The company reported earnings last Thursday, and it looks as if everything is going according to plan for the most part. The holidays appeared to be successful for the company, with limited-edition steel�gift cards�selling out in six minutes and later on eBay, where $450 cards went for more than $1,000.

We also had news on the much-hyped Verismo brewer, and the recent earnings gave some great insight into how the little brewer sold over the holidays in comparison with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' Keurig brewers.

In the following video, Motley Fool analyst Blake Bos covers the Verismo launch, looks at the important earnings news investors should be aware of, and highlights where shares are priced at today.

The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Apple earnings flat despite sales gain

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

Strong iPhone sales still don�t quite measure up to Wall Street�s targets. Apple�s shares fall as forecast for revenue, margins disappoints. See full story.

Netflix surges late as sales, subscribers rise

Video-streaming company ends quarter with more than 27 million U.S. subscribers and forecasts more gains to come. See full story.

10 U.S. cities with the most bed bugs

Pest-control company Orkin reports a 32% jump in what it calls �bed bug business� in 2012. Here, from its ranking of U.S. cities with bed bug infestation issues, are the top 10 most infested cities. See full story.

How to profit from the coming currency wars

Central banks around the world are preparing for an all-out currency war to boost their economies. Here�s how investors can profit from that futile attempt, writes Matthew Lynn. See full story.

U.S. stocks gain; S&P 500 near 1,500

U.S. stocks pull higher after lawmakers vote to extend the nation�s borrowing limit and earnings from Google and IBM beat estimates. See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

Should health insurance be like car insurance? Why some companies are rewarding employees who take good care of themselves � and penalizing those who don�t. See full story.

How to Boost Your Overseas Yields While Minimizing Risk

In Omaha during Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-B) annual shareholder meeting, Tom Gaynor, chief investment officer of Markel Corp. (NYSE: MKL), detailed an asset class he follows -- SID -- which stands for "stocks in drag." This was meant to highlight that certain "safer" securities may not actually be that safe and instead will demonstrate price volatility similar to stocks.

International bonds were one asset class he referred to in his talk. Most investors buy bonds for their price stability, steady coupon payments and the fact that there is a very high likelihood of getting your investment back once a bond reaches its maturity date. For the most part, these characteristics closely fit domestic bonds issued by the U.S. government, corporations and municipalities.

 

These same securities exist in other countries. In general, international bonds are an appealing asset class because they help investors diversify their portfolios and can offer higher yields than in the United States. The main drawback for U.S. investors is that buying international bonds subjects them to currency fluctuations, since the U.S. dollar must be exchanged for a foreign currency to purchase the underlying bond. This is because foreign entities issue their bonds in their local currency. Currencies can exhibit quite a bit of volatility and this means the price of the underlying bond can also be quite volatile.

In addition to the currency volatility, the near-term outlook for international bonds is negative, given the U.S. dollar has been weak. The weakness is due to low interest rates and a weak economy. From the currency perspective, when the dollar declines, a foreign investment decreases in value. But there is a way to mitigate some of these problems through foreign bonds issued in U.S. dollars, which are fittingly referred to as "Yankee Bonds," and can carry very appealing dividend yields.

The portfolio manager for the DoubleLine Emerging Market Fixed Income Fund (Nasdaq: DBLEX) is currently investing in emerging market bonds issued in dollars in order to avoid the impact of a weak dollar, currency fluctuations and to gain exposure to individual investments that are trading at appealing valuations. The fund currently has an appealing dividend yield of about 5.3% and holds a Yankee bond from Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (NYSE: PBR). Investors in U.S. corporate bonds have to invest in 30-year bonds just to get a 4% coupon, meaning they can pick up substantial income gains from Yankee bonds.

Selecting individual investments in Yankee bonds requires extensive legwork, but it can be worth it. In the Petrobras example, I believe investors would be well served by considering the company's common stock, but other more conservative (or income-minded) folks may be more comfortable with holding the underlying bond that currently yields 5.88% and matures in five years and returns the initial investment, as opposed to the stock, which has been volatile. The five-year rate for U.S. corporate bonds is comparatively stingy at a recent 1.87%.

Reuters also recently detailed that Yankee bonds from foreign financial institutions have been popular and that $96 billion have been issued so far this year from banks in Canada, Australia and Europe. Last year, CIBC Bank in Canada and Commerzbank in Germany both issued bonds in U.S. dollars.            

> I don't have any specific Yankee bonds to recommend and believe most investors are better of leaving the individual security selection to fixed income experts, such as through the DoubleLine fund I mentioned earlier that pays a high overall dividend to investors.  StreetAuthority's High Yield International newsletter, written by StreetAuthority co-founder Paul Tracy, is also always on the lookout for compelling international opportunities, including the appealing Yankee Bond class.

Mellanox Slips: No Catalysts, Says Pac Crest; Products Still Tops, Says Piper

Shares of Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) are down $2.75, or 5%, at $48.94, paring some losses after the stock last night was halted and then plunged 24% following a Q1 forecast that missed analysts’ estimates by a wide margin.

The stock has gotten at least two downgrades, that I can see, this morning, with Pacific Crest’s Brent Bracelin cutting his rating to Sector Perform from Outperform, and from Craig-Hallum.

Bracelin writes, “The magnitude and unexpected nature of the decline significantly increases the risk/reward profile on MLNX in the short run, particularly given that operating expenses are now at a $200 million run-rate.”

Bracelin cut his estimate for this year to $440 million in revenue and $1.80 per share in profit from a prior $557 million and $3.56, what he calls a “worst-case scenario.” He sees few “catalysts” on the horizon, adding that “Intel (INTC) entering the 100G market in 2014 does not help.”

“While downside below $27 (10x plus cash) could be limited, we see no catalyst to drive a recovery back to $52 until growth reaccelerates.”

But Piper Jaffray’s Andrew Nowinski today reiterates an Overweight rating, while cutting his price target from $65 to $52, writing that the firm “remain confident in our thesis”:

We continue to believe Mellanox will hold a competitive advantage via its FDR technology and due to management�s decision to accelerate R&D spending this year, will maintain its lead over the competition with the launch of EDR (100GB/s) products in 2014. While we are reducing our price target to $52 to account for modestly lower estimates, we believe the market reaction to the guidance (shares down 20% after hours) is overblown and expect the shares to recover toward our price target over the next 12 months in anticipation of these developments.

Nowinski now projects $450 million in revenue and $1.59 per share in profit this year, down from a prior $583 million and $3.59 per share.

HSBC Buys $876 Million Worth of Silver


Silver has now rallied for 7 days due to the flood of inflows into silver backed ETF’s and investment demand for coins and bars internationally. Analysts polled by Reuters expect silver to rise in 2013.

Holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, stood at 10,689 tonnes on Jan. 22, up 604.9 tonnes, or nearly 6 percent, from the end of 2012.

By comparison, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold ETF, saw an outflow of nearly 15 tonnes so far this year.

This has helped silver prices rally over 6% so far this year and 4.5% last week alone. The close above $32/oz yesterday was bullish technically and could lead to silver testing the next level of resistance which is at $34/oz.

The U.S. Mint has sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins and will resume sales the week of January 28 when the US Mint said inventory would be replenished.

Chinese silver turnover surged to 2,200 tonnes on Friday and analysts say Chinese investor’s interest in silver is continuing to rise as many are looking at silver as a cheaper alternative to gold.

Hence, trading volumes for the precious metal on the SGE soared in 2012.

Silver bullion imports by China remain robust too. Silver imports were 228 metric tons in December, according to data released by the customs agency.

There are also rumours that Apple is experiencing delays in producing the new iMac due to difficulty in sourcing industrial silver in volume in China. More silver than is typically used is utilised in the new 21.5" Apple iMacs.

HSBC Buying KGHM Silver Bars

HSBC has quietly moved into acquiring large amounts of silver bullion.

The bank has secured another deal to buy silver bars from KGHM which brings their total purchases of silver from KGHM alone in the last 12 months to $876 million or PLN 3.65 billion.

KGHM is one of the largest producers of silver in the world and is the second-largest producer of refined silver in the world.

They produce silver bars registered under the brand KGHM HG that are attested to by “Good Delivery” certificates issued by the London Bullion Market Association and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre.

Listed metals producer KGHM signed an estimated PLN 1.67 billion deal on 2013 sales of silver to HSBC, KGHM said in a market filing yesterday.

The deal puts the total value of deals between KGHM and HSBC in the last 12 months to PLN 3.65 billion or $876 million, the filing read.

The Management Board of KGHM announced that on 21 January 2013 a contract was entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch for silver sales in 2013.

The estimated value of the contract is PLN 1,672,260,469.66. As a result of entering into this contract, the total estimated value of contracts entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch over the last 12 months exceeded 10% of the equity of the Company and amounts to PLN 3,654,120,061.59.

The highest-value contract signed during this period is the above-mentioned contract. The criteria used for describing the contract as significant is that the total estimated value of the contracts exceeds 10% of the equity of KGHM.

KGHM is one of the largest companies in Poland and one of the largest mining & metallurgy companies in the world.

The main customers of Polish silver in recent years have been the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium.  HSBC appears to be one of their main customers now.

Respected and erudite, James Steel, the chief commodity analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. continues to be bullish on silver and recently said how “silver tends to track gold, except it over performs in a bull market”  and how he was “moderately bullish on silver” in 2013.

HSBC did not comment on the deal and it only came to light as KGHM is a listed company and had to report the deal which was then picked up in Polish media.

The massive deal could simply be HSBC securing supply for the NYSE listed ETFS Physical Silver as they are the custodian.

Or it could be that senior people in HSBC are concerned about securing supply as they expect robust investment demand to continue and possibly increase resulting in higher prices.

*Post courtesy of Mark O'Byrne at Gold Core.

 

Financial stocks drop; Citi shares tumble 8%

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Shares of Citigroup Inc. and other large banks dragged financial stocks into the red Tuesday, after Citigroup reported a drop in fourth-quarter earnings.

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Shares of Citigroup C �fell 8.2%, their biggest one-day percentage drop since Oct. 3, when the stock closed down 9.8%.

On Tuesday, the bank reported its fourth-quarter profit fell 11% from a year earlier as choppy capital markets overshadowed evidence of the bank�s continued recovery from the financial crisis. Read MarketWatch coverage of Citigroup earnings

Blue chip J.P. Morgan Chase JPM �also saw shares close down with a loss of 2.8%. J.P. Morgan Chase reported quarterly results last Friday. Read more about 23% drop in profit.

Shares of Wells Fargo & Co. WFC �bucked the trend and closed higher, gaining 0.7%. The San Francisco-based company reported fourth-quarter results in which earnings rose. Read MarketWatch coverage of Wells Fargo results

The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF XLF , which measures the performance of financial stocks in the S&P 500 index SPX , fell 0.8%. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF KBE �declined 0.9%.

Of the ten sectors in the S&P 500, financial stocks were the only loser on the day.

Of the other financial stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �, Bank of America Corp. BAC �shares fell 2%, while shares of American Express Co. AXP �rose 0.9% and Travelers Cos. TRV �shares advanced 0.5%.

Other notable decliners on the day included Morgan Stanley MS , Fifth Third Bancorp. FITB �, IntercontinentalExchange Inc. ICE �, and MetLife Inc. MET �

Another Up Day for the Dow?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEX: ^DJI  ) snapped its five-day losing streak yesterday with a 0.70% gain, but can the bulls win out again today? Let's take a peek at what might drive another day of gains or what might tip the market toward losses.

European worries
Yesterday, markets approved the falling Spanish and Italian bond yields after comments by a European Central Bank member hinted at potential further action for intervention. The STOXX 50 (INDEX: ^STOXX50E) gained 0.85% yesterday and the FTSE 100 (INDEX: ^FTSE  ) rose 0.70%. Investors will closely watch any further news regarding Spain or Italy.

Economic reports galore
This morning will see the release of the weekly initial and continuing jobless-claim numbers. The market expects 355,000 initial claims, down from last week's 357,000, and 3.35 million continuing claims, up from last week's 3.33 million.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be released, giving an insight into inflation for March. Core PPI, which excludes any inflation from energy and food, is expected to grow by 0.2%, which will match February's growth.

The last economic report for the morning will be regarding international trade, which can give insight into domestic and overseas demand. The market expects a trade balance of negative-$53 billion for February, slightly more than January's negative-$52.6 billion.

Tomorrow
Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) blew out analysts' expectations of a $0.04 loss per share with $0.09 in positive earnings for its first quarter, and now the next up to report is JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) on Friday. While Alcoa's earnings surprise boosted the stock 6.2% yesterday, JPMorgan will have to buck the trend of its falling profits to meet expectations of $1.16 per share. In the fourth quarter, JPMorgan's profit fell more than 22% when it posted $0.90 earnings per share. Expectations are still lower than last year's first-quarter earnings of $1.28 per share.

Get ready for more earnings
Trading on each piece of market news is a great way to rack up transaction fees, which is one reason The Motley Fool promotes long-term investing, and investing in companies focused on the long term. For five such companies already recommended by our Motley Fool Stock Advisor service, and key insights into what to look for when they report earnings, check out our free report: "5 Stocks Investors Need to Watch This Earnings Season."

Tips on How to Invest Better Into Securities

People are searching for tips in any area of life. The same can be said about investing. They look at more experienced investors and want to see why those investors became who they are today. It is quite clear that those successful people followed some rules and had very specific strategies that brought them success. I have been interested in the topic for a long time and will try to cover some of the tips that can help us to become better at making investment decisions.

Buy more risky securities to get bigger return on your investment. Depending on what kind of investor you are risk can be a very good tool to increase your profits. Why? The bigger the risk, the bigger your potential reward can be. So, if you want not just secure investment instruments, but bigger than average profits you have to look for less safe securities, analyze them and if you see that they have potential to grow dramatically; buy them. If you are a conservative investor, do not follow the tip. However, you should remember that investments are not risky at all; they will probably have very low possibility for bigger than average profits.

Another idea that may seem shocking to you, but it is true and that is: buy when everybody is selling and sell when everybody is buying. Crowd is wrong almost all the time. It buys at the top and sells at the bottom. It is run and controlled by emotions. You cannot be a good trader if you make decisions based on your emotions, good or bad. Base those on your logical investing principles and you will be ahead of everybody. Buy when prices are low and everybody is afraid to buy and sell them high when everybody wants to buy from you.

Trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Traders have famous clichés. One of them is: do not try to catch falling knives. This is what most traders do when they go against trend. When prices are falling you need to wait till they stop and start forming a bottom. The same can be said about a rising market. Do not sell if prices are constantly rising. Wait for some signs of a reversal. When prices fail to go higher start selling.

Learn to focus on a few securities. Concentration is key to trading successfully. But you cannot have it if you try to concentrate on one hundred or even more stocks. You will lose focus, because various securities can go to various directions at a time and you may be confused as to which security goes where and which ones you should pick up for buying. Pick out two or three and follow them diligently. When you see the best situations for buying use them without any doubt.

Reduce your losses and make your profits grow would be my final tip. If you learn how to cut your losses quick profits would take after themselves. Most traders would quickly become successful if they just learned this rule. Let your profits be at least twice as big as your losses and you will have only every third trade to be successful in order to break even. If you do better than that you will have profit.

Hope the article was useful. I also recommend reading my article on top 15 Forex trading strategies. If you are interested in the topic, click here. Wish you to become a successful investor.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Should You Chase Winners?

By David Russell

The way I see it, there are essentially two trades facing investors right now: whether to chase winners or look for opportunities among unloved growth names.

On the one hand, we have low-risk stocks like utilities, drug makers, and consumer-product companies--the ones you hear constantly touted for being "high-quality" and paying "big dividends." On the other, we have many companies that are trading near 52-week lows that seem to be bottoming out, especially industrials and certain technology names.

American investors have grown so paranoid about things that go bump in the night--European debt blowups and Chinese economic data, for example--that we have been forced into stocks with extreme safety. They have sought investments that resemble bonds as much as possible because they have little risk and pay income.

These safety names essentially amount to little more than "high-beta" Treasuries, and I believe that they need to be understood as such. If Treasury yields start to rise and risk appetite returns, companies like Consolidated Edison (ED), Altria (MO), and Kraft (KFT) will slow down or reverse. The focus will then shift to beaten-down growth names that stand to benefit from a stronger economy.

At the same time, certain industrial and material stocks have been sitting and waiting for the last couple of months. Most of them, including Ingersoll Rand (IR), U.S. Steel (X), and Terex (TEX), have been nudging their way higher since October but remain trapped against their 100-day moving averages. If sentiment improves and risk appetite return, these could really run.

One potential strategy is a butterfly spread on X: You could buy one January 31 call, sell two January 33 calls, and buy one January 35 call, for a total cost of $0.09. This strategy will start making money in a hurry if X pushes above $31, with a maximum profit of more than 2,000 percent if the stock closes at $33 on expiration. (See our Education section)

The trade has a big potential reward but low probability of success because X is currently around $26, so would have to rally more than 25 percent for the maximum profit to be realized. The reason that I suggest it is that, when a stock like X starts to move, a 25 percent gain in a single month is completely possible.

The steel giant is always a good name for a complex strategy like a butterfly because it trades a ton of options and therefore has tight bid/ask spreads. Always remember that the more pieces a trade has, the more it will cost you in both commissions and bid/ask spreads.

Ford looks similar to X and has been pushing higher since October while trying to break its 100-day moving average. It also has tight option spreads.

A few others worth checking out include:

  • Huntsman (HUN): This stock has been holding support around $9.40 and beat expectations the last time it reported on Nov. 2.
  • NXP Semiconductor (NXPI): It has seen bullish call buying in recent sessions, with a potential catalyst from Google Wallet.
  • Rite-Aid (RAD): The company's turnaround seems to be gathering steam and management raised guidance on Dec. 15.
  • Clearwire (CLWR): It recently signed a new contract to provide networking services to Sprint Nextel and raised capital. That takes bankruptcy off the table. Shares are stuck at their 100-day moving average, but a 50 percent move to $3 looks imminently doable.
  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS): This name has spent all of 2011 consolidating after a big move in late 2010. Look for it to make a higher low above $40, then go to its 52-week highs around $50 and consolidate, followed by a breakout and new highs.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS): I have hated the financials for a long time, but this one looks like it's done going down. It's probably not ready to rally yet, so I would wait for its 100-day moving average to come down to the stock and then look for break.
  • Whirlpool (WHR): This stock trades for less than book value and will benefit from better housing and employment. But it's probably not ready to move yet. Like GS, you want to wait for the 100-day to come down and then look for the stock to break through.

Overall, the boring safety names may continue to lead early in 2012, so it could make sense to wait for pullbacks in those in the near term. But at some point sentiment will return to growth.

Be ready for that shift to occur, because when it does the picks identified here could strongly outperform.

Where to Find Yields Double Those in the U.S.

A couple of weeks ago, I told you about the enormous number of high-yielding stocks abroad. I think the amount of international dividend-payers out there is one of the market's biggest secrets.

I told you that only 17 profitable U.S. companies were paying yields of more than 12%... compared with 210 abroad. The numbers fluctuate day to day, but the trend is pretty clear.

I've researched this topic for years and the fact is, foreign companies are simply paying higher yields across the board.

In the table to the right you can see the difference between what we get from U.S. companies and what's available from international companies. Keep in mind that I only looked at the common stocks of companies that were profitable during the past year.

Truth is, the stocks in the S&P 500 pay an average yield of just 2.0%, making the United States one of the lowest-yielding markets in the world.

But go abroad, and you find something completely different. No, not every country is a dividend stalwart... but there are a surprising number of markets that more than double the yields found here in the United States.

Compare our 2.0% average yield with what I'm seeing in international markets.

According to Bloomberg, Germany's average yield is 3.6%... Brazil's average yield is 3.6%... the United Kingdom yields the same... Australia yields 4.7%... New Zealand pays 4.8%.

Take a look:


 
But there are more reasons to look abroad than just the dividend yields.

You see, there's a correlation between economic growth and rising stock prices. The faster the growth, typically the higher the stock market moves.

  So it shouldn't surprise you that in 2011 the S&P 500 returned about 2% (that's with dividends included!). When you look at the total performance worldwide, the U.S. market ranked just 13th in the world during that period. In other words, there were a dozen other places to make more money.

But that's just one year. The difference is more pronounced over the long term.

During the past five years ended 2011, the S&P 500 returned -1.2%. But 44 other countries delivered better stock market returns. According to Bloomberg, countries such as Chile, Germany and even Mexico have handily outperformed the U.S. market.

So not only can you find higher yields abroad, but you can also see stronger capital gains.

Look, the United States is unlike any other nation on the planet. It's the largest economy and home to the world's most innovative entrepreneurs. But the simple fact is that the headiest days of our economic growth are behind us.

Why?

It's simply the law of large numbers. With an economy in excess of $14 trillion, growing more than a few percent each year is a major undertaking.

In fact, think back about what we've seen in the past few years. The U.S. government has spent trillions in an effort to stimulate the economy. The Federal Reserve has spent trillions more. Interest rates have been slashed to zero.

And yet, the U.S. economy grew just 2.8% in 2011. Not bad, but nowhere near the top of the list when it comes to gross domestic product growth (GDP).

Qatar topped the list with 17.0% growth. Panama saw a 7.4% rise in GDP... South Korea, 4.5%... Singapore, 5.2%... Poland, 3.8%... even Chile boosted its GDP at a 5.9% annual rate.

The fact is, more and more income investors are realizing that if they want to give themselves the best chance at the "Holy Grail" of investing -- high yields AND rising stock prices -- then they need to look at international companies.

Risks to Consider: Don't get me wrong -- investing in international dividend-payers isn't a guaranteed winning investment. Nothing ever is.

Action to Take-- > But as I like to say, limiting yourself to only U.S. stocks is like going to a restaurant and limiting your options to just one side of the menu. Sure you can find something you like... but wouldn't you rather see all the options?

7 Back-to-School Option Trades

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#1 – Broadcom Corp. (BRCM)     

#2 – Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)     

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#7 – Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)

Misconceptions About A SiriusXM Share Buyback

I recently wrote an article about the supply of cash building up at SiriusXM (SIRI) and the issues surrounding a potential share buyback. The article referenced two studies that showed most of the time companies undertaking share buybacks do a disservice to shareholders. The shares initially get a short term pop in price, but over the longer term, the shares will resume trading on the fundamentals of the company and most will trade lower. Why is this?

The primary reason for trading lower appears to be that companies are using the cash to buy shares because there is no better use for the cash. Investors buy stock in companies for income, capital appreciation or some combination of both. If the cash generating capacity of a business is not used for increasing dividends or reinvesting in the business to grow future earnings, why should investors be satisfied and bid up the price of shares?

In spite of the two referenced studies, there were comments on the article from investors bullish on the prospects of Sirius essentially stating that it would be different for Sirius:

In the case of Sirius XM, where the share count may be as high as 6.5 billion shares, share buybacks would be the most logical solution. Such amount of outstanding and preferred shares is unprecedented, ... and harms the share price and company image tremendously. Even with future profits in billions, the siri's share count would still be detrimental to the company.

and,

Share buyback. IMO the stock price is undervalued and one of the big problems is that most analysts think there are too many shares outstanding (dilution ). By eliminating dilution, it may also kill off the short interest in this stock.

If the number of shares outstanding were the only concern of investors, a simple reverse split would address that issue. What ultimately drives share prices is earnings. One of the most common metrics used to assess the value of a stock is its Price to Earnings (or P/E) ratio. Investors are buying a portion of a company and as owners are looking to earn income on their investment, both now and in the future. So, what is the Sirius P/E ratio?

Seeking Alpha showed the P/E at nearly 43 when the share price was at $2.14. But that's a backward looking or historical measure and it does not take into account the share dilution effects. Sirius has forecasted 2012 adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (or EBITDA) of $860 million, a growth of 20% over the 2011 projected EBITDA figure of $715 million. Considering the company's 2011 interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization through the first three quarters of 2011 totaled $430 million, and that a full year total would be about $585 million, we can derive earnings of roughly $130 million for 2011. With $860 million of EBITDA for 2012, and holding the interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization constant at $585 million, 2012 Earnings would be around $305 million. Using a diluted share count in the 6.5-7 billion range, you are still under a nickel a share in 2012 and the forward diluted P/E is still in the low 40's. That indicates an expectation of a lot of growth going forward beyond 2012.

2012 Free Cash Flow (FCF) is another important metric. Sirius guidance of $700 million FCF in 2012 is substantially better, but still only about a dime per diluted share with shares trading at more than 21x the forward FCF.

There is the potential for continued growth in both metrics. A price increase began rolling out in January and is likely to have some negative impact on subscriber activity with churn increasing and conversion rates declining. It remains to be seen whether or not the negative impacts are more than offset by the increased monthly rates. One positive about the price increase is that it did not create the type of negative headlines that occurred after the price increase at Netflix or the institution of the $5 monthly debit card fee at Bank of America.

In addition to the price increase, there are strengthening car sales and an expanding used car program that could help FCF, top line and bottom line growth. Does a share buyback help these numbers?

Share buybacks do not magically increase the earnings of a company. Everything else being equal, one would expect the earnings per share (EPS) to increase if the number of shares - or denominator, is reduced. However, it is impossible to hold everything else equal. The cash used from a buyback comes from somewhere - the current FCF, new debt or cash already invested in marketable securities.

Cash can be used to lower debt (my own preference) and improve earnings in two ways. Not only would there be less interest expense because there is less debt, but there is also the likelihood of higher debt ratings. Higher debt ratings also translate to lower interest rates and lower interest expense. And lower interest costs means more EPS. And if debt isn't to be lowered, what is the next best use of cash?

If Sirius uses cash for a share repurchase program, it indicates the company is foregoing other projects. Management has made a decision not to advertise or develop a new product or to acquire other content. When management makes these decisions, we could assume that they believe that the return on these alternate uses won't drive EPS higher than a lower share count would. If that's the case, is the investor better off owning a larger percentage of Sirius (through a reduced share count) or receiving the cash through a dividend?

Ignoring some of the tax implications, I would maintain a dividend is a better use of cash from an investor perspective than a share buyback. With a dividend, the investors can decide where to put their money to work. Investors that like Sirius can reinvest the dividends and increase their ownership percentage. If they think there are better investments, they also have that option. More importantly, a dividend shows investors that management foresees continued FCF and earnings to support future dividend payments and dividend increases.

Management may be reluctant to pay dividends for several reasons. Instituting a regular quarterly dividend becomes an obligation on the part of management to continue those payments, since dividend cuts typically result in share prices being punished. Dividend payments mean cash is being used for purposes other than reinvestment in the business, curtailing the ability to take advantage of future growth opportunities. Instituting dividend payments tells investors that management sees fewer growth opportunities going forward. Growth typically results in capital appreciation, and management compensation in the form of options (or restricted stock) is tied very much to growth and capital appreciation.

And all of this ignores the situation with the Liberty Media (LMCA) ownership stake in Sirius. If Liberty does not participate in a share buyback, they will eventually grow into a majority ownership position of Sirius. Greg Maffei, Liberty CEO, has stated selling the Sirius shares is not a logical option for Liberty. While this means that a buyback eventually places Sirius under Liberty control, it would take quite a bit of time before that happens. This is because the number of shares that would need to be repurchased (more than 1 billion shares) and the cash required to make those purchases is quite large.

Summary
A share buyback often sends a message that a company has no better internal uses for cash. Those investors looking for capital appreciation and growth in the share price, are being told that there are limited growth opportunities. Those investors looking for dividend income and increasing dividends to keep up with inflation won't be satisfied. Sirius investors hoping for a share buyback should be careful about what they wish for.

Disclosure: I am long SIRI, BAC.

Money moves 5 doomsayers are making now

Unemployed men wait outside a soup kitchen in Chicago in February 1931.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � They are sentries at the stock market�s wall of worry, warning investors to prepare for another epic crash for debt-laden economies.

Yet with U.S. equity markets on a tear since early October, hitting levels not touched in several years, most of Wall Street isn�t seeing much cause for alarm.

But investors should be very afraid, the doomsayers caution.

�Hold cash, and keep it safe,� said Robert Prechter, head of market forecasting firm Elliott Wave International. �There will be another buying opportunity, probably about four years from now.�

Click to Play Spain is the worry, not Portugal

Markets have been preoccupied with Portugal, but the real linchpin to the success of the euro project in the short term is Spain. Vincent Cignarella explains why on Markets Hub. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)

Instead, increasingly optimistic buyers have pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �above 13,000; the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP �over 3,000, and the Standard & Poor�s 500 Index SPX �past 1,400.

The gains extend beyond stocks. Gold may be off its September 2011 high of $1,907 an ounce, but is still in the respectable mid $1,600s, and oil �remains above $100 a barrel. Meanwhile, yields on both the 10-year Treasury note 10_YEAR and the 30-year bond 30_YEAR �are around a percentage point lower from a year ago, boosting bond values.

Also, the greenback is rising. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY , a measure of the dollar against six other major currencies, is up sharply over the past 12 months.

It�s enough to make a confirmed pessimist downright gloomy.

After all, what�s a doomsayer to do when it seems everything � even Europe � is rallying? Do you stand your ground in cash, or join the crowd and closely eye the exit?

Party like it�s 2007

Of the five prominent market skeptics interviewed for this article, four are reluctantly going along for the ride.

/quotes/zigman/627449 DJIA 12,617.32, -104.14, -0.82% /quotes/zigman/3870025 SPX 1,338.31, -12.21, -0.90% /quotes/zigman/123127 COMP 2,862.99, -27.16, -0.94% Climbing the wall of worry

The consensus among this group is that the rally is not sustainable � just another big party before an even bigger hangover. They see stock prices as being artificially inflated by Federal Reserve policies of quantitative easing and low interest rates, and that to put out the fires in Europe, the European Central Bank has gotten in on the act.

But, these strategists say, while these monetary drugs are palliative to markets, they require bigger doses for progressively dwindling results and will eventually fail.

Also, they believe the market�s valuation is stretched beyond what the fundamentals justify. Government policies are encouraging leveraged institutional investors and hedge funds to go long on stocks, they maintain, while cash-flush companies buy back outstanding shares from cash-strapped individual investors.

Individual investors, not incidentally, are engulfed by debt, the doomsayers point out. As they see it, consumers struggling to unwind debt are getting squeezed by higher food and energy costs. Accordingly, they�ll have even less disposable income to sustain corporate profits, the pessimists say. And one outcome these forecasters can all agree on is that the stage is being set for a big, ugly global stock-market crash.

Five shades of gray 1. Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, said the worst investment now is bonds, because it�s the one asset that hasn�t been crushed. The second-worst option is cash, because the Fed insists that inflation is not a threat, he said.

Peter Schiff

Schiff is known for having called the 2007 financial crisis, and has been a vocal critic of artificially low interest rates set by the Fed.

Among stocks, Schiff said he�s focusing on multinationals and exporters, areas that have some insulation to a U.S. economy that he believes is heading for a crisis.

Earlier in the month, Euro Pacific�s asset management arm launched its EP Strategic U.S. Equity Fund EPUSX , which focuses on U.S. businesses that stand to benefit from increasing sales in overseas markets.

Schiff said the Fed can be in denial about inflation for only so long, and eventually will have to raise interest rates.

�They�ll keep [rates] low until the market forces them,� Schiff said. �It�s like trying to hide it when you�re pregnant, you can only do it for so long.�

He added: �If we get to 2014 and we don�t have a crisis, the Fed will keep rates low but at some point it won�t matter because we won�t have any money because we�ll be paying $30 for a carton of milk.�

Belo Corp.: Television Stock Stabilizing at an Attractive Price

Belo Corp. (BLC) owns 20 TV stations around the country (including two in Seattle named KING and KONG). They have a diverse portfolio of affiliates of the major TV networks. The company was founded in 1842 as a newspaper company, but in 2008 they spun off their remaining newspaper assets and became purely a television broadcaster.

Naturally, in 2008 and 2009 the downturn in the economy affected their revenues, which consist largely of advertising. As a result, the company has taken a number of noncash charges since 2008. However, revenues and earnings in 2009 have showed definite signs of recovery, with net revenues for the first three quarters of 2010 up 14.8% as compared to the same period in 2009, of which 11.9% came from non-political advertising.

The earnings picture of the company at least based on current earnings is attractive, with a P/E ratio of 10.07. The historical earnings picture has been greatly distorted by the large writeoffs of their intangible assets. This is a non-cash charge, and merely reflects the decline in revenues that we are already aware of. As such, it represents no actual cash loss to the holders, and therefore can be ignored when examining Belo’s earnings power (although we also have to reverse the tax benefit of the writeoffs as well).

In terms of Belo’s abilities to generate free cash flow, taking the writeoffs out for the first nine months of 2010, Belo produced $136 million in operating income, and an additional $16 million in excess depreciation, which is also a source of cash flow to equity holders. Interest owed over that period was $60 million, producing an interest coverage ratio of 2.5x. This leaves $92 million in pretax earnings, or say $55 million afterwards based on a 40% tax rate.

If we assume that the fourth quarter will show the same results as the other three (it may actually be better because of election ads and holiday advertising), we have $73 million in estimated cash free cash flow to equity for 2010 (see all conference call transcripts here). In 2009, free cash flow to equity was $65 million. Based on a market cap of $694 million as of the January 31, 2011 close, we have an estimated price/free cash flow ratio of 9.5x, which I consider to be attractive. Nor are these results atypical; looking back to 2005, Belo Corp.’s annual free cash flows have consistently been in the $60 to $80 million range once the effects of the newspaper company they spun off in 2008 are stripped out. Apart from impairments, they have never recorded a loss over that period.

On top of the non-cash writeoffs dealt with above, the major cause of Belo’s low valuation is their debt situation. Their total long-term debts as of their latest SEC filing total $949 million, most of which consists of bonds. $175 million of these bonds fall due in May of 2013, and an additional $270 million in November of 2016.

As I stated above, interest is covered about 2.5 times based on current results, and both sets of bonds now trade at a significant premium to par. Belo Corp. is very sensibly devoting the great majority of its free cash flow to paying down debt and, based on $73 million or so in free cash flow generating ability, their free cash flow is sufficient to pay down their 2013 bonds as they come due, and most of the 2016 bonds as well.

Belo Corp. has reduced long term debt by $80 million since the end of 2009, and by an additional $64 million in 2009 itself. Obviously, as they pay their debt down they increase owner earnings through savings on interest expenses, and they improve their borrowing capacity in the event of a large short-term need for cash. More importantly, they relieve the specter of financial distress that is now hanging over the company’s valuation.

Belo Corp. also announced recently that they have completed the process of severing their pension funds from the newspaper they spun off in 2008. They have disclosed that this will produce a noncash charge to earnings, but which will also significantly lower their future pension liabilities.

At any rate, Belo Corp. has regained its traction after the economic crisis, and shows positive indications of being able to manage its debt situation, being capable of paying down interest as well as keeping up with principal. Furthermore, it trades at an attractively low multiple to its existing cash flow, and we may expect this to expand as they pay their debts down. As a result, I would definitely recommend Belo as a candidate for portfolio inclusion.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Kodak shares plunge on bankruptcy report

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Shares of Kodak finished sharply lower Wednesday following a report that the company was preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing.

Kodak shares, which have already dropped over 90% in the past year, closed down 28% yesterday afternoon after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company was preparing for a bankruptcy filing in case an attempt to sell a number of digital patents fails.

The report, which cited anonymous sources, came a day after Kodak (EK, Fortune 500) disclosed that the New York Stock Exchange had warned that it could be delisted in six months if its struggling stock price does not recover. The warning was triggered by the fact that the stock's average closing price has been less than $1 per share for thirty consecutive trading days.

A Kodak spokesman said the company does not comment on "market rumors or speculation."

In September, Kodak shares plunged following reports that it was considering bankruptcy, though they recovered after the firm denied those rumors.

At the time, Kodak was already struggling after rating agency Moody's downgraded several Kodak debt securities, pushing Kodak even deeper into "junk" status. Fitch followed up with its own downgrade.

Patents: Silicon Valley's deadliest weapon

Kodak has suffered massively from photography's transition from film to digital. In September it announced that it needed to tap $160 million from a pre-existing $400 million credit line. Just over a month later, the company warned that it could run out of cash if it fails to sell a number of its patents, raise additional capital or borrow more money.

Kodak announced in July that it was exploring the sale of more than 1,100 patents tied to digital imaging. Analysts said last year that the deal could generate as much as $3 billion.

Tech giants have been spending big bucks to arm themselves with patents. A group led by Apple (APPL) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) paid $4.5 billion for patents from bankrupt Canadian networking equipment firm Nortel in July.

Not to be outdone, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) agreed to buy smartphone maker Motorola Mobility (MMI) for a whopping $12.5 billion in August. The deal's catalyst was Google's desire to get its hands on Motorola's patents. 

Invest Money For a Secure and Stable Future – Tips on Engaging in Investments

Are you wondering how to put your money into good use? Do you want to know how to help your money grow and gain profit from it? If you find yourself nodding in affirmation, you should definitely study the basics of investment and try it. Investment is one of the ways to secure yourself a good future. In simple terms, doing so will help you set aside money for a special purpose. It will keep you financially safe because the principle of investment states that your money will grow in a certain amount of time.�

Nonetheless, with the many types of investment out there, how will a person be able to choose which to undergo? First of all, one should determine their goals for investing. People choose to invest to gain more income. There are also others who do so to secure for themselves or their loved ones a good future. There are also those who wish to improve the value of their property. Either way, it is truly for a great cause.�

Depending on the objectives you have set for your investing needs, you should definitely make sure that you do research. This is to help you find ways which you can use to make your own investment succeed. Asking an expert on the field of finance will also give you the chance to find out which tools you can employ. Doing so will help you weigh your options-the pros and cons.�

After doing research, you should definitely invest money on things such as educational plans, residential real estate and even the security of your property. These are the most common fields which people invest in to aid them in obtaining a secured future for their selves and their family. As you can see, investments are not just about improving your present life. It is about preparing for the future.�

So, consider doing some investment if you wish to have stability in your latter years.

Top Stocks To Buy For 12/15/2012-4

Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc (NYSE:MMI) achieved its new 52 week high price of $38.82 where it was opened at $38.71 UP 0.10 points or +0.26% by closing at $38.82. MMI transacted shares during the day were over 2.55 million shares however it has an average volume of 4.90 million shares.

MMI has a market capitalization $11.53 billion and an enterprise value at $8.58 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 0.90 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 2.34. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared a -0.71% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 0.59%.

The company made a return on asset of 0.62% in past twelve months and return on equity of -2.38% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $12.74 billion gaining $43.22 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 27.90%.

According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $3.05 billion cash in hand making cash per share at 10.27. The total of $98.00 million debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 2.00. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 1.58 and book value per share was 16.51.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 1.36% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price $37.85 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price $28.23.

MMI holds 296.94 million outstanding shares with 262.17 million floating shares where insider possessed 11.65% and institutions kept 10.50%.

The Advantages Of Getting A High School Diploma Online

Getting a high school degree now is not something that requires you to be at school for hours nor neither does it take many lectures and class work.

To do this, sometimes you would have no choice but to omit some of the fun like hanging out with friends after school, going to prom parties and watching your loved ones smiling with joy at your graduation. What should really matter to you is the acquiring of your high school degree.

It is possible to register with virtual high school so that you can work at your degree in your convenience without disturbing your daily plans. Even a regular student can benefit by taking part of the lessons online with the experts in his line of study.

There are many benefits to doing your high school diploma online. It means that age is not of consequence, and no matter how old you are there is a chance for you to complete your online courses and get the high school diploma.

In virtual studies, no one cares who you are, how you manage your work or even how long it takes to finish the work. There is so much flexibility that adults find it very convenient to study this way because nobody needs them to attend class at designated time, and so they can easily do the courses during their free time. This might be at night or at dawn before they proceed to other duties of the day.

Anyone who wants to get a high school diploma online must be good at communication. Possessing good communication skills is important since part of the grading is on communication abilities.

Just like in normal schools, the virtual ones are also categorized as public and private. Majority of the public online schools just admit students of high school age, but the private ones admit anyone.

Your sole duty is to make sure that the courses you choose to take and the school you go to online is accredited.

Enjoy more of this author’s articles about topics such as the stainless steel welding rod and the steel fabricator.

Top Stocks For 2012-1-17-15

DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

Tuesday August 25, 2009


Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE: BIG) today reported second quarter fiscal 2009 income from continuing operations of $28.6 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, compared to income from continuing operations of $26.1 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, in the second quarter of fiscal 2008. Including the impact of discontinued operations, second quarter fiscal 2009 net income totaled $28.4 million, or $0.34 per diluted share, compared to $26.0 million, or $0.32 per diluted share, in the prior year.

Acacia Research Corporation (Nasdaq: ACTG) announced today that its Microprocessor Enhancement Corporation subsidiary has entered into a license agreement with Eurotech Inc., covering a portfolio of patents that relate to an architecture employed in advanced pipeline microprocessors. This architecture allows for conditional execution of microprocessor instructions, and a later determination of whether the instructions executed should be written back to memory. By conditionally executing instructions in this architecture, significant improvements in microprocessor speed can be achieved.

Willdan Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: WLDN) today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Willdan Energy Solutions (WES), was awarded a $67 million contract with Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc., (Con Edison), a subsidiary of Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE: ED), to implement Con Edison’s new energy efficiency program for small business customers. The initial contract work will commence in the current quarter, with most of the work scheduled to be completed by the end of 2011.

Staples, Inc. (Nasdaq: SPLS) announced today the results for its second quarter ended August 1, 2009. Total company sales increased nine percent to $5.5 billion compared to second quarter 2008 sales of $5.1 billion, which included $673 million of Corporate Express sales for the month of July 2008. For the second quarter of 2009, on a GAAP basis, net income attributed to Staples, Inc. declined 38 percent year over year to $92 million, and diluted earnings per share decreased 38 percent to $0.13, from the $0.21 achieved in the second quarter of last year.

With the growing popularity of netbooks, small laptop computers designed for web browsing and e-mailing, iGo (NASDAQ: IGOI), a leading provider of portable power solutions, unveiled a new netbook charger helping to make this year’s hottest tech trend more portable and versatile.

Biotricity Corporation (Pink Sheets:GWND) announced today that it has leased a location in Houston, Texas for the construction of its first power plant to generate electricity from biomass. The lease is part of a 79 acre power station originally built by Reliant Power, now RRI Energy and is now being developed into the Houston Clean Energy Park.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Evernote: The New Billion-Dollar Mobile Company

Mobile app operator Evernote has raised $70 million in a Series D round — including investors like Meritech Capital and CBC Capital — at a cool $1 billion valuation.

No doubt, the goal is to eventually bring Evernote public. But the company might not be in much of a rush. After all, some of the recent social deals, like Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA), Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) and Pandora (NYSE:P), have been lackluster performers.

Evernote has a variety of apps that help users collect content and write thoughts and notes. It�s simple stuff, but users love the products — and most importantly, people often willing to pay for them.

Evernote provides premium versions of its apps, which currently enjoy more than 1 million paid customers. This is in stark contrast to Instragram, which Facebook recently acquired for $1 billion. The company’s photo app, while popular, was good for precisely $0 in revenues, and the company has nothing resembling a business model.

With the capital, Evernote plans to keep up its aggressive growth plan. This will include acquisitions, as well as a move into China.

Evernote CEO Phil Libin wrote up an interesting blog post about the funding. One notable quote: �This financing brings us another small step closer to our long-term goal of building a hundred year startup that can be everyone�s second brain.�

Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of �The Complete M&A Handbook”, �All About Short Selling� and �All About Commodities.� Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli or reach him via email. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Futures Down Slightly; DuPont Rising, Verizon Falling

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index are down roughly 0.1% ahead of Tuesday’s opening bell.

Shares of DuPont (DD) are up 1% after its reported a drop in fourth-quarter profits but predicted full-year earnings ahead of consensus estimates. This sort of thing isn’t hopeful for the broader economy:

Chief Executive�Ellen Kullman�noted that “weakness in markets served by performance chemicals and electronics and communications provided significant challenges in 2012,” but added that the company has adjusted its plans to “meet the changing market environment and grow our businesses in a slow-growth world economy.”

Meanwhile, shares of Verizon (VZ) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) both fell after the companies reported earnings.

Johnson & Johnson was down about 1% after itsfull-year forecast came in below analysts estimates. Verizon’s stock dropped 1.5% after it reported a bigger loss in the fourth-quarter.

Shares of Boeing (BA) are also on the decline, down about 1% after the weekend brought more grim news for the maker of the 787 Dreamliner — it looks like the planes will be grounded for a while before regulators can figure out why its lithium ion batteries catch fire.

Bloomberg has a good look today at the man at the top of the company, and the challenges he’s facing:

The Dreamliner crisis is the biggest predicament McNerney has faced in his career, which has included running�General Electric Co.�s aircraft engines business and almost five years in charge of�3M Co. Boeing directors who named him CEO in 2005 considered him a prize who would restore the company�s reputation after a series of scandals and get the Dreamliner launched in a disciplined, cost-efficient way.

Now�board members�probably want to know what McNerney knew and when about the Dreamliner�s lithium-ion batteries, said Michael Useem, director of the�Center for Leadership and Change Management�at the�University of Pennsylvania�s Wharton School. While investigators are focusing on the batteries and electrical system, they have yet to zero in on a cause of two incidents.

Dominic Rushe sees the Dreamliner’s problems as representative of the greater issues we face in trying to balance corporate profits with social good:

The Dreamliner’s problems are not just a Boeing issue. They are a lesson in the limits of outsourcing and the all too cosy relationships between regulator and regulated that have caused problems across industries from automotive to food and financial services in recent years.

And finally, the slow death of the Blockbuster video store continues — owner Dish Network (DISH) said this morning it will close 300 locations nationwide and cut 3,000 jobs. That will leave 500 Blockbusters in the US, the same number of stores that Dish closed just in 2012.

Morgan Stanley, Up 18.5% in 2013, Beats a Mild Retreat

BloombergReady to forgive?

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) are down about 1.4% this afternoon, which may be a little profit-taking after the bank’s stock has surged about 18.5% in January.

It’s been a good month for�shareholders of�Morgan Stanley, which not only produced healthy quarterly earnings that felt like the start of better things to come, but also continued its restructuring, announcing 1,600 layoffs.

But just when you think this or that bank has put the bad old days behind it…

On March 16, 2007,�Morgan Stanley�employees working on one of the toxic assets that helped blow up the world economy discussed what to name it. Among the team members� suggestions: �Subprime Meltdown,� �Hitman,� �Nuclear Holocaust� and �Mike Tyson�s Punchout,� as well a simple yet direct reference to�a bag of excrement.

Ha ha. Those hilarious investment bankers.

Then they gave it its real name and sold it to a Chinese bank.

That’s from Jesse Eisinger’s piece today about what’s in court documents the bank was forced to hand over in a lawsuit brought against it by a Taiwanese bank. I strongly suggest you read the whole thing, but here’s more of the dirty details:

Finally, by early 2007, the bank appears to realize that the subprime market is cratering even worse that it expects. Even the supposedly safe pieces of C.D.O.�s that it owns, including its piece of [a subprime C.D.O. called] Stack, are facing losses. So Morgan Stanley bankers set to scouring the world to peddle as a safe and sound investment what its own employees are internally deriding.

Morgan Stanley declined to comment on whether it made money on its Stack investments over all. But it looks to have turned out well for the bank. In Stack, it managed to fob off a nuclear bomb to the Taiwanese bank.

With serendipitous timing, Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman was on Bloomberg Television today and asked was how far the financial industry has moved towards winning back the trust of the public, its customers and government:

It is a journey. The heart of it is that the financial crisis destroyed a lot of confidence and trust and there have been a lot of misinformation since then, so it has been a slow build. But I think it starts with the amount of capital and liquidity banks have now put to work inside their own organizations. So they are a lot safer. A lot of the management has changed inside these organizations and a lot of the businesses they engaged in pre-crisis, they are not engaged in now. I think the trust is coming back, but it will be a multi-year journey.

 

Income Investors Could Almost Double Their Yield With This Trade

Retirement planners usually advise investors to hold a combination of stock market and fixed income investments in their portfolio. Investments could include mutual funds, ETFs, or individual securities. Ten-year Treasury notes offer a yield of 1.85%, which means an investor using traditional planning tools would earn about $185 on a $10,000 note.

Because interest rates have fallen so low, many investors are taking on more risk in pursuit of more income. This decision could lead to devastating losses if market conditions change suddenly, like they did in 2008. Rather than shifting assets to excessively risky investments, income investors should consider a different way to use traditional investments.

 

Fixed income investors can diversify with real estate, which is also an income producing investment. Investors can participate in that sector by buying real estate investment trusts (REITs), but picking the right REIT can be a challenge.

Under IRS rules, REITs are required to pay out a high percentage of earnings as dividends. Since the earnings can be increased by depreciation and other accounting charges, the dividends can consume a large amount of the cash flow, which puts the REIT at risk of being unable to fund its operations. Rather than trying to find the best REIT, we can use the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ) to track a REIT index that invests in companies owning office buildings, hotels and other real property.

VNQ reports a dividend yield of about 3.6% based on the payments from the past 12 months and generally pays a dividend quarterly. The specific payment amount varies and tends to increase in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters last year, the dividend averaged 51.5 cents. Assuming a similar payout over the next 12 months, we can conservatively estimate that the income from VNQ will be about $2, or about 3%.

While 3% is a low yield, it is significantly higher than the yield of long-term Treasuries. In addition to higher income, VNQ also offers potential capital appreciation. Realistically, there is very little potential upside in bond prices after a 30-year bull market.

With covered call option writing, we could increase the income from VNQ. This strategy is not really any riskier than owning VNQ outright. If VNQ falls, the covered call writer and the stock owner who doesn't use covered calls will experience a loss. But the covered call writer's loss will be smaller. If VNQ goes up, both investors will gain, although those gains are capped with a covered call. The biggest difference is that covered calls could almost double the annual income from 3% to 5.4%.

Rather than describe this idea in theoretical terms, let's dive in and use real numbers. At the time of this writing, VNQ was trading at $68.09 a share. You could buy 100 shares of VNQ and sell a call that expires in March with a strike price of $70 for 28 cents. Each options contract is for 100 shares of stock -- selling this call generates $28 in income immediately. Over the next two months, if VNQ announces a dividend, and they have paid a dividend in March in the past, you'll receive the dividends just like you would if you hadn't written a covered call.

When the option expires, if VNQ is trading above $70 you will have to sell the shares at $70. Assuming you sell the shares, the total return would be about 3.2%, or 1.6% a month. This profit comes from the $28 options premium and the profit on the shares. If there is a dividend payment of 51.5 cents, that return could rise to 4%.

If VNQ is below $70 at options expiration, we see a return of about 1.2% from the dividend and options premium and will be able to sell more calls. Repeating this strategy throughout the year could increase your annual income from VNQ to 5.4%, assuming we find similar trades five more times a year ($0.28 x 6 = $1.68 + $2 dividend yield = $3.68/$68.09 x100 = 5.4%).

Markets are always changing and investors need to adapt. In a low interest rate world, writing covered calls is one way to adapt and profit.

> Buy VNQ at the market price and sell one VNQ March 70 Call at the market price for each 100 shares of VNQ purchased. Set stop-loss at $64 on VNQ but do not use a stop-loss with the call. If VNQ falls, the call will expire worthless and the income received will partly offset the loss in VNQ. If VNQ closes below $70 when the options expire, the income from the options premium and dividend would be 1.2% in two months. If VNQ closes above $70, the stock will be called away and your profit will be 4% in two months, including dividends.

Nokia: Morgan Stanley Ups Target to €2.60, Still Sees a Struggle

Morgan Stanley’s Francois Meunier today reiterates an Underweight rating on shares of Nokia (NOK), while raising his price target on the ordinary shares traded in Helsinki (NOK1V) to �2.60 from �1.50, writing that the “news flow” for the company’s Lumia line of phones running Microsoft‘s (MSFT) Windows Phone 8 has improved, but that he worries about profits in the handset division and the Nokia-Siemens Networks equipment division.

The shares are�up 14 cents, or 3.2%, at $4.57, helped in part, no doubt, by a report this morning from market research firm�Kantar WorldPanel�stating that Windows Phone saw “strong European growth” in the twelve weeks through December 23rd, �claiming 5.9% of sales in Britain and 13.9% in Italy, way up from year-ago levels. The ordinary shares today are up 1.4% at �3.42.

Meunier’s new target reflects a “going concern” take-out value for the business, rather than the “break-up value” he had previously been using. On that score, he writes, there are “Two key questions,” namely, “How material will the turn around in the handset business be to long-term prospects?” and “What is the likelihood of a f further deterioration in cash, particularly driven by NSN?”

You can’t ignore the change in “sentiment” based on Lumia, writes Meunier, but he thinks even with a meaningful rebound in smartphone volume, Nokia needs more change to improve its handset prospects:

Smartphone revenues have started to grow again, as Lumia volumes have ramped and the decline of Symbian has become less material (see Exhibit 4). The key question is whether smartphone revenue growth can offset the decline in feature phones. Higher ASPs in smartphones mean it does not need a like-for-like market share gain to offset the decline in revenue terms. We expect Nokia to gain ~5% of global smartphones, growing smartphone volumes at 25% in 2013e and 30% in 2014. We expect net revenue growth of ~3-4% pa in Devices & Services over 2013-14, as Nokia feature phone volumes decline ~15% pa. Given competition in Windows Phone, we think upside beyond this depends on a more thorough revisit on product strategy, possibly involving the launch of an Android phone [�] We would be cautious before extrapolating stronger Q4 profitability to 2013/14: Q4 volumes are seasonally strong, pricing has been supported by new products, and write-downs of Windows 7 devices in previous quarters may have helped margins. We now assume smartphone gross margins recovering towards 16% by year-end 2013 � lower than feature phone gross margins at 22-23%. Q1 margin guidance in Devices is -2%, +/-4pp, which likely incorporates some more weakness on gross margins for smart devices.

He still sees it tough going for Nokia when the top two smartphone players,�Apple�(AAPL) and�Samsung Electronics�(005930KS) gobble up all the profit, as he illustrates in the following chart:


As for the Networks business, it’s the bright spot, but Meunier thinks the business may be reaching the end of a streak of better-than-expected profit, and he opines the business is still “sub-scale” in terms of being able to compete for equipment contracts, in contrast to Ericsson (ERIC), his preferred pick:

NSN is the primary driver of upside to our price target. We now assume a long-term margin of 5%, justifying an EV/Sales multiple of 0.5x and a valuation of �0.8 per share. As importantly, our base case is that NSN remains a financially independent entity, so no further cash contribution from Nokia Group is required to restructure, and we add a Group net cash balance of �0.6 per share back to our SOP valuation. Recent unconfirmed newsflow suggesting that NSN is in talks to raise a bond, which would presumably be used to refinance the term loan maturing in June, would imply a more independent financial future for the company.�While Q1 guidance implies NSN is reaching the tail end of recent supernormal profitability, cash generation has been much better than anticipated in 2012. Rationalising the contract base has also contributed positively to earnings.

 

As the Dollar Goes Down, Stock Profits Go Up

Recently, at the latest G-20 meeting of top financial advisers from around the globe, serious concerns were raised about the falling value of the American dollar against world currencies. While Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner offered reassurances that there was no active plan to devalue the dollar, it also is clear that there is no active plan to stop its decline. In fact, it is the Federal Reserve’s talk of possible quantitative easing that most fuels these concerns and has sent the US dollar to a 15 year low against Japan’s yen and down .8% to $1.4070 for the euro.

Since offering a stimulus package did not help significantly and lowering interest rates hasn’t tempted increased consumer spending, allowing the dollar or slip further against other floating currencies may be a risky but clever option. Geithner now suggests that a weaker US dollar may actually be in our nation’s national best interests. Certainly, it would appear that this may be the factor that has been stimulating growth, especially among companies that do significant foreign export business.

Stock brokers are going to be recommending that investors take a second look at some of these American companies profitability recently. One such Issaquah, Washington based-business, Costco (COST) has experienced a growth in sales of $1.6 billion since last year. This represents a 7.8% revenue increase. Of that amount, 4% came from US locations and a whopping 14% from international sales. The momentum has continued into September, and shows no sign of slowing.

Costco (COST), the largest membership warehouse company in the world and 4th largest US retailer, appears to be benefiting from these “foreign trade tailwinds.” With a net sales increase of 11.3%, the company’s shares are also looking attractive, up 14.1% from a year ago. Costco’s success is definitely tied to its ability to offer high sales and rapid turnover with honed operating efficiency. As gas prices rise, more and more customers are pulled into the parking lot to fill up their vehicles and shop at the same time. Smart marketing makes this company’s future look strong and bright. Whether through online trading or using a traditional stock broker, investing here looks like a great opportunity.

Another company that has benefited from the declining dollar value is the world’s largest farm equipment maker, Deere (DE) . More familiarly known as John Deere, this Moline, Illinois-based company has seen its net sales climb 6% in the last 9 months with a favorable translation of currency of 3%. Once again, the weakened dollar is making US exports on items such as construction, transportation, and farm equipment more affordable to overseas markets. A company such as Deere, with significant foreign sales and a strong American base seems like a really safe investment opportunity right now for stock brokers and online trading.

Does a declining American dollar send a message of national weakness to the rest of the world and to this country’s citizens? Maybe not. In the years 1995-2002, a “strong” dollar raced ahead of other floating currencies by as much as 30%. This may have sounded great and felt even better when taking a vacation abroad, but it was probably not a realistic relationship for American currency to maintain with that of her world neighbors. The gradual decline now being experienced may actually be a necessary correction to that over-valued global status.

Interestingly, with over 2 million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, one might wonder if the “strong” dollar played a nefarious role in this global slowing down of the world economy. Whether or not that is the case, the re-adjustment in valuation of the dollar does seem to be making US products more competitive and increasing the job opportunities in foreign exports. Because imports become more expensive, Americans are encouraged to “buy American.” More product sales translates into more job opportunities and a recovering economy.

This may be a prudent time to make stock market portfolio adjustments, including such trustworthy companies as Deere and Costco who have created significant foreign markets and will be able to expand even further as their profitability levels continue to rise. As the S&P Index demonstrates, those companies drawing from overseas markets are currently up 5.5 percentage points above those who primary revenue is limited to American sources. Who would have thought a declining dollar could be so valuable? (Click to enlarge)



Disclosure: Long COST, Long DE

Surprise! 85,000 Jobs Lost in December

S&P 500 futures are factoring in a dip on today’s jobs numbers disappointment, down 3.4 points to 1,134.10 for the March contract. Those hopes of “imminent” job creation are proving to be less imminent, after the�U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of the Census reported a drop in jobs of 85,000 in Decemberversus expectations for 10,000 jobs to be added. That basically confirms�Wednesday’s dour December report by�ADP (ADP).

The headline unemployment number remained at 10%.

Some folks are finding a silver lining in the fact that November was revised up from a loss of 11,000 jobs. The revised figures for October showed 127,000 jobs lost versus the original 111,000 figure.

The dollar’s weakened against the Euro in the wake of Labor’s numbers, rising to $1.4372. Gold futures for delivery in February are up $4.50 at $1,138.20 per ounce, and oil futures for light sweet crude are down 57 cents at $82.09 per barrel for February contracts.

Our friends at RDQ Economics remain undaunted, however, in seeing the bright side: “Over the last three months, we have seen private sector hours worked rise at an 0.8% annual rate and the rise in temporary help over the last three months (57,000 per month or 37.4% at an annual rate) suggests that companies need to boost hiring,” they write.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

How to Play Decelerating Earnings Growth Going Into 2012

I laid out a road map for the end of the year a few weeks back, before the market took off.

It went something like this: Expect a strong upward move following the recession forecast by the Economic Cycle Research Institute that would end at around the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500, around the 1,280 area.

After that, I suggested the market would stall, and then keel over, as the prospect of recession became more evident.

I expected this to play out over two or three months, with the top hitting around the end of December, but it seems that lately the market likes to rush from one place to another. In August, stocks rushed to a low, and in October stocks rushed to a high. Everyone is in a hurry these days.

What�s fascinating about the move higher in October was that returns shunned many conventions. Normally, at a time like September when you are looking at what to own after two tough months, you are considering stocks that have weathered the recent storms the best — and that would have been staples and utilities.

Yet as it turned out, the stocks that turned out best in October, during the rebound, were ones that had been crushed the most in the previous two months.

In this way, the rally turned out just like the autumn-winter rally in 2010: Beaten-down energy, materials, financial and industrial stocks performed best, as well as the more cyclical subsectors of technology. Some notable names were F5 Networks (NASDAQ:FFIV), Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) and Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI).

This rebound occurred during an earnings season whose details were obscured from day to day by the flash of a lot of news out of Europe. The noise from the old country was so overwhelming that it was easy to miss something really important that was happening as U.S. companies reported.

Mike Wilson at Citigroup (NYSE:C) points out that in contrast to last year at this time, earnings growth is now rapidly decelerating from previously high levels. That is a huge change from last year, when earnings growth was exploding higher.

This is a little hard to see on the surface because the level of growth is around the same — at around 15% year-over-year on average. The difference is the rate of change, and Wilson points out, quite correctly, that for stock pricing it�s always the trajectory of growth, rather than the absolute level, that matters the most.

Wilson�s unique model suggests that this deceleration is not about to stabilize, and in fact points to “meaningfully negative” earnings growth in 2012. That does not mean all companies� earnings will contract, but it does mean it will take a lot of skill to pick stocks rather than sectors.

The most obvious ways to see this already are in the two major earnings misses of the season: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). These two former earnings growth leaders are no longer leading. It’s the same with industrial giants 3M (NYSE:MMM) and Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB).

If this trend continues, potentially the best way to play stocks going forward is to buy ones in which earnings expectations are already in the dumps, and short ones for whom expectations are highest.

I think that this is why FFIV worked out so well: All along, I had said expectations were too low, and so when it reported and results were OK, it was as if it was reporting 100% growth.

Right now, the areas where expectations are lowest — according to Wilson and confirmed by my own research — are financials, autos and semiconductors. Expectations are highest in staples, software, IT services and high-end consumer.

Topping Off

Now, my discussion is going to get a little more esoteric about the potential for decline from here, but bear with me because there is a good payoff. Again, I am leveraging a combination of my own work as well as the research of Wilson.

Since 1929, the Citigroup analyst reports, there have only been 19 occurrences in which the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 has trended down for 50 consecutive days, with the “trend” defined as the rolling 10-day average. On the last Wednesday in October, this happened for the 20th time.

What�s interesting is that the pattern has a distinctive routine before and after. What tends to happen before is a rapid 20% correction that doesn�t bounce much, thus causing this unique negative trend. After approximately 100 days from the peak, the market then tends to stage a sharp rally that comes within 5% of the downward-sloping 200-day average.

On average, this rally lasts approximately 50 days and marginally surpasses the 200-day average. Then, the rally fails and proceeds to drop approximately 20% to 25% over the next six months. The final low is 32% below the original peak, an amplitude that implies the S&P 500 will hit 950 by April 2012.

While this approach differs from the approach that I provided in my road map, it reaches much the same conclusion. Price patterns certainly can diverge from the precedent, but Wilson points out this setup has only occurred 20 times in the past 90 years — and 95% of the time, the first big rally fails right around the 200-day; just like the recent rally did.

It�s going to be very tempting to shift entirely to the short side of the market armed with this information, but considering that there still are a lot of levers that political and central bank leaders can pull, we would want to tread carefully at first.

Bottom line: We need to be careful not to be sucked into the siren call of the long side just because the market is up over the past month. Nothing has been solved in Europe, earnings growth at major companies is decelerating here, and a global recession still looks to be in the cards.