Nokia Still The Market Leader, Charter Equity Says; Upgrades To Buy

Nokia (NOK) might be something of an afterthought in the buzz machine that is the U.S. smartphone market, but size counts for something, says Charter Equity Research. Analyst Ed Snyder today upgraded the world’s dominant maker of mobile handsets to Buy from Market Perform.

Some hightlights from Snyder’s upgrade:

• Nokia might not be the fastest mover, but supply chain efficiencies have kept costs low and protected double-digit operating margins throughout the downturn. “…while [Nokia] loses the innovation battle it usually wins the handset war by eventually replicating the innovators�� features into lower cost phones across a much wider channel,” Snyder writes.
• Cost competition among carriers will ultimately lead to fewer subsidies and cheaper phones, which favors Nokia because it can maintain margins at lower price points.
• Nokia’s slow response to the iPhone, has investors writing off Nokia stock.? “That sentiment combined with analyst��s excessive U.S. centric view of the mobile phone market has left many investors exposed to rapid appreciation in the stock when sell-side opinions normalize with a rebound in earnings,” he says.

Shares of Nokia are up 1.1%, or 16 cents, to $15.24 today.

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Is Boston Scientific's Stock Cheap by the Numbers?

Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

• The current price multiples.
• The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
• How much growth we can expect.

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX  ) might be.

The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.

Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.

Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.

Boston Scientific has a P/E ratio of 14.5 and an EV/FCF ratio of 12.0 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Boston Scientific has a negative P/E ratio and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 15.2.

A positive one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal (at least in my opinion). For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.

Boston Scientific has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.?

Company	! 1-Year P /E	1-Year EV/FCF	5-Year P/E	5-Year EV/FCF
Boston Scientific	14.5	12.0	NM	15.2
Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT  )	18.7	10.8	19.8	14.5
Medtronic (NYSE: MDT  )	11.3	11.7	14.0	13.3
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  )	15.4	13.3	14.5	12.4

Source: S&P Capital IQ; NM = not meaningful due to losses.

Numerically, we've seen how Boston Scientific's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine...

The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.

In the past five years, Boston Scientific's net income margin has ranged from -30.2% to 7.3%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from -6.3% to 17.7%.

How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; margin ranges are combined.

Additionally, over the last five years, Boston Scientific has tallied up two years of positive earnings and four years of positive free cash flow.

Next, let's fig! ure out. ..

How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.

Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. Due to losses, Boston Scientific's trailing EPS growth rate isn't meaningful. However, here's how Boston Scientific's peers performed:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; EPS growth shown.

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

Source: S&P Capital IQ; estimates for EPS growth.

The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of Boston Scientific?are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.

The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 14.5 P/E ratio and its reasonable one-year P/E ratio masks its past losses over the five-year period. We see that its peers have had much stronger past records for margins and profitability and similar analyst expectations for future growth. In addition, Boston Scientific doesn't pay a dividend.

Boston Scientific's initial numbers aren't impressive compared to its peers, but this is just a start. If you find Boston Sc! ientific 's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident one way or the other. As a start, add it to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis.

To see the stocks that I've researched beyond the initial numbers and bought in my public real-money portfolio, click here.

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Louisiana-Pacific: Analyst Says Price Jump Muddies Story

Investors have doubted the recovery of Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)despite asharp bounce in the prices for its key product in the last month. That’s to their credit, according to UBS, which issueda downbeat analysis of the home-building products maker’s current plight.

Prices of the oriented strand board that is Louisiana-Pac’s signature product – and one that’s beenin the midst of a persistent decline in demandamid the housing crisis -jumped 25% in June. While that’s come off some relatively low levels, a 25% bounce is an impressive move.

But UBS argued that the turn in pricing didn’t signal any sustainable recovery, but insteadmostly reflected a modest inventory build after LPX customers depleted their inventories in preceding months. Therewould have been a small measure of a seasonal bulge in demand, but itturned out to be smaller than usual, and camelater in the calendar thanin previous years.

That’s meant that it won’t do anything to help Louisiana-Pacific’s second quarter. Analysts expected the companyto record a loss of 32 cents a share when it reports its results July 27. UBS said it anticipated a loss of 33 cents a share for the period.

Because of the downturn in demand,the OSB manufacturers have been running at less than 40% capacity. There could be some urgency to boost that output, so a bump in prices, in the long term, could pose a problem for the business, if it incents those competitors to reignite capacity to levels that don’t match demand.

Louisiana-Pacific shares eased abotu 2% in Tuesday’s trading.

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Why Companies Decline

At the end of Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs, we hear directly from Jobs about his legacy. Among the topics he considers is why companies decline. Ultimately, Jobs feels that companies decline when the salesmen start running the show.

Through Isaacson's book, Jobs lays out a generalized lifecycle for leading companies. First, a company starts out by doing a great job. It innovates and then "becomes a monopoly or close to it in some field." Sadly, at this point, "the quality of the product becomes less important." This is when the company starts "valuing the great salesmen, because they are the ones who can move the needle on revenues, not the product engineers and designers." According to Jobs, this is precisely how "the salespeople end up running the company."

Jobs provides a number of historical examples of this phenomenon. It happened at IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) when John Akers took over in the mid-1980s. Akers, according to Jobs, was a "smart, eloquent, fantastic salesperson, but he didn't know anything about product." He also felt that the same thing happened at Xerox and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) . About the latter company, Jobs felt the decline began when Steve Ballmer took over, and he doesn't think "anything will change at Microsoft as long as Ballmer is running it."

Jobs thought a similar process occurred at Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) when John Sculley, formerly of PepsiCo, became CEO from 1983 to 1993. Sculley, according to Jobs, was a guy who showed little interest in creating great products, and that almost destroyed the company. Jobs said Apple "was lucky and it rebounded."

One might extrapolate from Jobs' remarks that founder-led firms such as Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) and Facebook can continue on their upwa! rd traje ctory. In fact, there is some evidence for that view in the book.

Despite the fact that Jobs felt Google had "ripped off the iPhone," he did agree to meet with its co-founder Larry Page, who had sought out Jobs' advice on how to be an effective CEO. In a nutshell, Jobs told him to focus on five products and get rid of the rest of it.

Jobs said he tried to be as helpful as he could to Page, and added that he'd have done the same for Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook. Clearly, Jobs believed in founder-led companies, and was wary of firms that were headed by leaders who didn't love developing products.

Obviously, these are pretty general observations from Jobs about an extremely complicated topic. But I'd still value Jobs' insights on this more than I would, say, a business guru like Jim Collins. When a guy who deservedly belongs in the same pantheon as Henry Ford and Thomas Edison speaks, I think we should listen.

If you'd like to learn more about three great companies that are taking advantage of the iPhone, iPad, and Android revolution, then have a look at our latest free report. You can get it right now by clicking here.

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Apollo to Buy Stone Tower Capital, Adding $17 Billion in Credit Assets

Apollo Global Management LLC, theprivate-equity firm started by Leon Black, agreed to buy StoneTower Capital LLC, adding $17 billion in credit assets andmaking capital markets its biggest business unit. Terms weren��tdisclosed.

Stone Tower, based in New York, invests in corporate loans,bonds and asset-backed securities for institutions such asgovernment and corporate pensions and university endowments. Thetransaction will bring Apollo��s assets under management to $82billion, of which $39 billion will be in capital markets, thefirm said today in a statement.

Private-equity companies are seeking to become morediversified asset managers after the financial crisis sappedinvestor appetite for leveraged buyouts. Blackstone Group LP (BX),the world��s largest private-equity firm, became the biggestmanager of collateralized loan obligations after buying Dublin-based Harbourmaster Capital Management Ltd. in October.Washington-based Carlyle Group, the second-largest private-equity firm, agreed in January to buy Dutch money managerAlpInvest Partners NV to expand its asset-management business.

��The strategic benefits are significant to our business,particularly amid the cyclical volatility and secular changeswhich we believe are creating voids in the marketplace that ourcombined platform can now effectively fill,�� James Zelter, headof Apollo��s capital markets business, said in the statement.

Apollo in July agreed to buy Gulf Stream Asset ManagementLLC, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based manager of corporate-credit assets. That acquisition added more than $3 billion ofassets under management to Apollo��s capital-markets business.

Shares Decline

Apollo fell 6.4 percent to close at $11.76 in New York. Thestock has declined 38 percent since its March 29 initial publicoffering, when Apollo sold shares at $19 each.

Michael Levitt, Stone Tower��s chief executive officer, willjoin Apollo as vice chairman of its credit management business,Apollo said in the statement. T! he firms expect to complete thetransaction in the first quarter.

Apollo today also agreed to buy Taminco Group Holdings, aBelgian chemical producer, from London-based private-equity firmCVC Capital Partners Ltd. for about 1.1 billion euros ($1.4billion).

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PIMCO¡¯s Gross Backs Off ¡®New Normal¡¯ Prediction

PIMCO's Bill Gross, seen here (far left) at Schwab Impact in October, has changed his economic outlook.

How the mighty have fallen. Is Bill Gross the next Bill Miller? Investors could be forgiven for asking after PIMCO Total Return experienced significant net outflows in 2011, the first year that's happened since 1993, as the well-respected bond king somehow missed the biggest bond rally in nine years.

And now Gross appears to be backing off his earlier "new normal" claim (or at least heavily modifying it). The new normal as PIMCO describes it is a world of muted Western growth, high unemployment and relatively orderly deleveraging.

"How many ways can you say ‘it’s different this time?’” Gross asks in his latest monthly commentary. “Mohamed El-Erian’s awakening phrase of several years past has virtually been adopted into the lexicon these days, but now it has an almost antiquated vapor to it that reflected calmer seas in 2011 as opposed to the possibility of a perfect storm in 2012.”

In typical Gross style, he writes that “we appear to be morphing into a world with much fatter tails, bordering on bimodal. It’s as if the Earth now has two moons instead of one and both are growing in size like a cancerous tumor that may threaten the financial tides, oceans and economic life as we have known it for the past half century. Welcome to 2012.”

Gross (left) adds that most developed economies have not, in fact, deleveraged since 2008, as he originally predicted. Credit as a whole remains resilient or at least static because of quantitative easings in the United States, U.K. and Japan.

“So global economies and their credit markets instead of delevering and contracting, continue to mildly expand. To the extent that most sovereign debt is now viewed as ‘credit’ in addition to ‘interest rate’ risk, then its integration into private markets cannot be assured.”

As to the investment implications of this “new, new normal,” Gross surprises by quoting legendary money manager Sir John Templeton’s four most dangerous words in investing–“it’s different this time.”

“For 2012, in the face of a delevering zero-bound interest rate world, investors must lower return expectations,” Gross concludes. “Between 2% and 5% for stocks, bonds and commodities are expected long term returns for global financial markets that have been pushed to the zero bound, a world where substantial real price appreciation is getting close to mathematically improbable. Adjust your expectations, prepare for bimodal outcomes. It is different this time and will continue to be for a number of years. The new normal is 'Sub,' 'Ab,' 'Para' and then some. The financial markets and global economies are at great risk.”

Crown Holdings after Quarter Results Made New Record High - CCK

Crown Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CCK) recently hit 52 week peak price $36.28, opened at $34.83 scored +5.76% closed $35.64. CCK traded on over 3.88 million shares in comparison to average volume of 1.21 million shares.

CCK has earnings of $360.00 million and made $7.91 billion sales for the last 12 months. Its quarter to quarter sales remained -3.37%. The company has 159.34 million of outstanding shares and 156.81 million shares were floated in the market.

CCK has an insider ownership at 1.75% and institutional ownership remained 86.51%. Its return on investment (ROI) for the last 12 month was 10.41% as compare to its return on equity (ROE) of 264.71% for the last 12 months.

The price moved ahead +6.54% from the mean of 20 days, +8.03% from 50 and went up 23.46% from 200 days average price. Company’s performance for the week was 4.89%, +5.76% for month and yearly performance remained 37.66%.

Its price volatility for a month remained 1.69% whereas volatility for a week noted as 2.21% having beta of 0.61. Company’s price to sales ratio for last 12 months was 0.72 while its price to book ratio for the most recent quarter was 40.97 and its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) remained 1.01 billion for the past twelve months.

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Microsoft (MSFT) And EU: Best Friends For Life?

After all of the bile that has passed between the European Union and Microsoft (MSFT) over Redmond’s monopolistic behavior in the region, the two may now be bedfellows.

The European Commission, a branch of the EU, has been trying to build its own "Google (GOOG) killer", not wanting the US to dominate one more key arena of the tech world. The governing body has contracted with Fast Search & Transfer, a company which Microsoft is buying, to "lead Pharos, short for Platform for Search of Audiovisual Resources Across Online Spaces, a publicly funded project designed to develop technology geared to help businesses better search multimedia files," according to MarketWatch.

It may be that the EU and Microsoft have found a common goal in wanting to beat back Google so that it does not come to dominate the worlds of search, wireless devices, desktop software, and green energy.

Now that Google is the one with the monopoly, why shouldn’t Microsoft get a little help from the government?

Douglas A. McIntyre

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Winners of 2011 Show Tumult Across the Pacific: William Pesek

If Asians (MXAP) got together to name aperson of the year, someone who brought surprise, intrigue andeconomic impact to the region, the choice would be obvious:Mother Nature.

From earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand to floods in thePhilippines and Thailand to Chinese droughts to volcaniceruptions in Indonesia, this was a year overrun by nature��sfury. Food shortages and the effects of climate changechallenged governments and inflation rates as rarely before.

Other forces of nature, meanwhile, ran out of steam. Themost surprising thing about Kim Jong Il��s death is that we wereso surprised. Time was never on the side of the hard-livingNorth Korean leader after a 2008 stroke. Yet, the world seemedto think the laws of science no longer applied to Kim.Unstoppable China also showed signs of being subject to a set oflaws -- those of economics, which guarantee that rapid growthinevitably slows.

As 2011 draws to a close, 10 awards are in order for thecountries, people and companies that shaped Asia��s tumultuousyear -- natural disasters aside.

Homer Simpson Award: To the hapless crowd at Tokyo ElectricPower Co. (9501), whose corruption and negligence turned Japan��s March11 earthquake and tsunami into the worst crisis since Chernobyl.Japan��s nuclear industry was proved to be no sounder than thatof the fictional Springfield Nuclear Power Plant, where on ��TheSimpsons�� cartoon program, the bumbling Homer heads safety.Only for Japan��s 126 million people, there��s nothing to laughabout.

��Dictatorships for Dummies��

Ready or Not Award: To Kim Jong Un, the 20-something sonexpected to replace Kim Jong Il. Grandfather Kim Il Sung spentdecades preparing his son to take over in 1994. Kim Jong Il hadfar less time to show his successor the ropes. If onlyAmazon.com carried a ��Dictatorships for Dummies�� title.

Reality TV Award: To Philippine President Benigno Aquino,for offering nary a dull moment. First, he stood up to theCatholic Church��s stance against contracep! tion and familyplanning. Then he went after the billions of dollars watchdoggroups say Ferdinand Marcos looted during his 21 years in power.Next, he arrested predecessor Gloria Arroyo on corruptioncharges. And you think things are tense in Washington?

Overwhelmed Freshman Award: To Yingluck Shinawatra, thefresh-faced prime minister of Thailand. With her unsteadyhandling of massive floods that breached Bangkok��s defenses,Yingluck confirmed concerns that she is both unqualified for thejob and a proxy for her brother Thaksin Shinawatra. He wasousted from the premiership in 2006 amid huge street protests.Talk that Yingluck may allow her brother to return to Thailandmeans one thing: This might just be a warm-up.

Coming Out Party Award: To Myanmar, for shocking the globeby taking steps toward democracy. If you told Hillary Clinton ayear ago that she would be in Yangon and embracing Aung Sang Suu Kyi, the U.S. secretary of state might have laughed. It makesyou wonder whether Pope Benedict XVI will soon get an invite.

Underdog Award: To Anna Hazare, whose hunger strike shookIndia. Only history will tell if the anti-corruption movementtouched off by the Gandhian social activist will drive thechange India��s inefficient economy needs. It��s a dialog thatIndia must have if it��s going to keep up with China.

Gillard Thrives

Grrl Power Award: To Julia Gillard, the Australian primeminister who is thriving in a man��s world. After topplingpredecessor Kevin Rudd in a June 2010 party coup, word was thatGillard wouldn��t last. Today, she��s running an economy that��sthe envy of the developed world and planning to lead the LaborParty to the next election in 2013. Gillard is also working toincrease female participation in Australia��s executive suites.Good on you, mate.

Clueless Executive Award: Although it��s hard to top Japan��sTepco for dismal leadership, Olympus Corp. deserves honorablemention for a scandal that left a $1.3 billion hole in itsbalance sheet and President Shuichi Takay! ama stru ggling to savethe company��s board. And the next recall by Sony Corp., which ison course for a fourth straight annual loss, should be ChairmanHoward Stringer.

Contrarian Indicator Award: To Standard & Poor��s, whichmight as well have flashed a ��buy�� signal on American debtwhen it cut the U.S.��s AAA rating in August. Far from fleeingthe dollar, investors -- many of them from Asia -- loaded upanew on U.S. Treasuries. Does that signify complete distrust ofour credit-rating system, or what?

Meredith Whitney Award: To Muddy Waters LLC, the Hong Kong-based short-seller that claimed to have found financialshenanigans at timberland owner Sino-Forest Corp. Whitney��s 2007prediction that Citigroup Inc.��s dividend was in danger -- itwas later cut -- drew denials and rebukes. Muddy Waters��sreport, initially disputed, is looking more accurate (TRE) by the day.Among the investors tripped up was John Paulson, he of thecolossally profitable bet on subprime mortgages.

It��s fitting that the final award concerns China becauseAsia��s prospects are so dependent on the region��s dominanteconomic power. Maybe next year is when we will find out ifSino-Forest was an anomaly or a microcosm of the Chinese growthmiracle. If it��s the latter, then what Mother Nature served upthis year might seem tame by comparison.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinionsexpressed are his own.)

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Time Warner Inc. Upward Trend Recorded from last Four Trades - NYSE:TWX

Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) recently hit 52 week peak price $36.23, opened at $34.71 scored +2.65% closed $36.03. TWX traded on over 17.52 million shares in comparison to average volume of 7.71 million shares.

TWX has earnings of $2.41 billion and made $26.40 billion sales for the last 12 months. Its quarter to quarter sales remained 1.84%. The company has 1.11 billion of outstanding shares and 1.11 billion shares were floated in the market.

TWX has an insider ownership at 0.01% and institutional ownership remained 83.49%. Its return on investment (ROI) for the last 12 month was 4.13% as compare to its return on equity (ROE) of 6.96% for the last 12 months.

The price moved ahead +9.56% from the mean of 20 days, +12.78% from 50 and went up +15.96% from 200 days average price. Company��s performance for the week was +11.51%, +9.31% for month and yearly performance remained 34.54%.

Its price volatility for a month remained 2.09% whereas volatility for a week noted as 4.08% having beta of 1.25. Company��s price to sales ratio for last 12 months was 1.51 while its price to book ratio for the most recent quarter was 1.22 and its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) remained 6.57 billion for the past twelve months.

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2012 Preview: Alcatel-Lucent

The calendar has turned, and the new year has begun. Now... what are you going to do with it? In our 2012 preview series, we're taking a look at some of our favorite stocks, and wondering: Will they do as well this year as last year? Or in Alcatel-Lucent's (NYSE: ALU  ) case, could they do any worse?

A few Foolish facts about Alcatel-Lucent

2011 Stock Return	(47.3%)
P/E	7.0
Dividend Yield	None
1-Year Revenue Growth	(1.3%)
1-Year Profit Growth	0%
CAPS Rating (out of 5)	***

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.

What's ahead for Alcatel-Lucent?
Alcatel had a pretty miserable 2011, no two ways about it -- but three days into 2012, it's already off to a great start. Yesterday, as markets glowed green around the globe, Alcatel was shining particularly brightly with a 9% gain in share price. Can it keep it up?

As so often in life, the answer is: "It depends." There's no doubt that Alcatel has an opportunity to sell "arms" to telecom superpowers AT&T (NYSE: T  ) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) , as they race to offer improved cellphone service. AT&T's need for bandwidth to support its iPhone franchise is well-known -- as are the troubles it's had providing this support. Meanwhile, AT&T frittered away a lot of infrastructure-building time while pursuing a merger with T-Mobile and needs to catch up. Verizon, while not distracted by such empire-building hobbies, has added the iPhon! e to its network, and will need to keep adding capacity to support it.

On the other hand, this is basically the same story we heard last year. And while it's true that at first, Alcatel seemed to be capitalizing upon Big Telecom's need for speed, growing sales smartly in 2011, it never did manage to translate these greater sales into actual cash profits. In fact, last I checked, Alcatel was burning cash at the rate of $565 million per year.

The "B" word
Now, this is not to say that I'm one of the unnamed skeptics that telecom analyst Bernstein was referring to last year when it denied seeing an "immediate bankruptcy risk" at Alcatel. Sure, the company's got more than $5.8 billion in debt -- but it's also got $4.9 billion in cash. At its current rate of value destruction, Alcatel -- which has burned cash consistently for the past half-decade -- can probably go on burning cash for close to another decade before its bank account goes dry. For this reason, I don't see Alcatel going bankrupt in 2012.

I just don't see the stock going anywhere fast, until it gets its cash flow situation fixed.

Looking for a stock with better prospects of producing profits in the new year? Find out which company our experts like best in our new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012." Thousands have already requested access and it'll only be available for a limited time. Simply click here -- it's free.

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Crocs: A Shoe Stock That Might Fit in 2012

Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX  ) shares stumbled big-time last fall. If the footwear company can redeem itself in 2012, though, investors who step into the shares now could be in for some gains.

First, I'll admit it: For many years, Crocs was one of my least favorite stock ideas. Once a darling cult stock, the company hit a wall in 2008 after the fad element of its footwear reached a peak. There was a point when Crocs' ultimate survival was in question, but the company has since made it off the endangered list.

Although Crocs shares plunged in October after it lowered its forecasts, overall, the company's been reporting perfectly solid financial growth lately. Let's compare it to several footwear peers' financial metrics over the last 12 months.

Company	Revenue Gain (Loss) %	Earnings (Loss) Per Share	Gross Profit Margin %	Total Debt-to-Capital Ratio
Crocs	30.8%	$1.23	53.7%	0.3%
Deckers Outdoor (Nasdaq: DECK  )	31%	$4.16	50.2%	5.9%
Wolverine Worldwide (NYSE: WWW  )	18%	$2.53	39.6%	9.1%
Nike (NYSE: NKE  )	14.3%	$4.67	44.2%	4.6%

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

As you ! can see, Crocs is actually holding its own quite admirably after its years of swampy difficulties. Although the lowered guidance (and uncertainty about the European marketplace for Crocs) certainly gives investors reason for concern, Crocs looks like a value at this point, with perfectly solid revenue growth, a solid profit, a handsome profit margin, and an optimistic outlook in the Asian marketplace.

Crocs' PEG ratio is currently 0.49. That's the very cheapest compared to Deckers, Wolverine, and Nike, which sport PEG ratios of 0.90, 1.04, and 1.78, respectively. However, one benefit that these other brands have over Crocs is that the latter is largely considered a "warm-weather brand," meaning that from this point forward investors may have to wait a few months before getting excited about its selling season. Though it has made forays into more conventional shoe styles that are closer to those of these competitors, there is no telling yet whether or not they'll take off.

To keep an eye on these developments, add Crocs and the rest of the companies here to your Watchlist using the links below. The service is 100% free and will keep you current on all the relevant news and events about the companies you care about.

• Add Crocs to My Watchlist.
• Add Wolverine?World?Wide to My Watchlist.
• Add Nike to My Watchlist.
• Add Deckers?Outdoor to My Watchlist.

If shoe stocks don't fit your investing lifestyle, check out "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012," a report that outlines a company described as the "Costco of Latin America," absolutely free.

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Spa tub Include Essential Addition To your Spa tub

Portable hot tub. Spas have grown to be more popular then ever today like a great way to relax in the home, plus more people these days are installing hot tubs in their residences. Not only can you love it washing in the hot spa, you may also obtain some good many benefits. You’ll be able to saturate the trouble and tension apart since the domestic hot water assists relieve the tension within your aching physique. You can also do straightforward drinking water physical exercise or drinking water aerobic exercises within your hot spa, that is a effective and safe technique of working out and keeping shape.

Spas are usually made from cedar, redwood and bamboo, which enable it to support as little as one or more to be able to more than ten folks. When making you buy, make sure you get your hot spa from a reputable hot spa maker. Provided that the bath tub maker has a great track record is the greatest promise of top quality and repair.

You will find there’s number of hot spa types that you should select from, like the easily transportable hot spa or property health spa, You will be confronted with the diverse selection of hot spa capabilities, styles, requirements and add-ons so it will be recommended that you arm yourself with some basic information about hot tubs prior to deciding in your model preference. The web is a superb spot to seek out useful home elevators hot tubs along with the different hot spa types in the marketplace. Price is a crucial thought too when you choose to buy the hot spa, which in turn is dependent upon from the, size and options that come with the particular health spa you end up picking. It’s also advisable to learn the particular operating cost of the bath tub. Portable hot tub.

When you have mounted the hot spa in the home, make sure you preserve this inside great functioning issue as it is not really a inexpensive investment. Nearly all hot tubs ought to come with a hot spa deal with because this is a vital and useful hot spa! additio n to possess. Hot spa insures help to keep litter box and impurities from the drinking water. Any hot spa without a deal with can also be unsafe while younger kids or pets may possibly inadvertently fall under the drinking water. Hot spa insures in addition support keep temperature in the hot spa, thereby reducing your heat charges.

It is crucial that you purchase a top quality hot spa deal with. Be sure that your hot spa deal with will be sturdy and sturdy then it can be used for a long time ahead. Furthermore be sure the hot spa deal with could be the proper size and suits safely around the hot spa. Using a hot spa deal with which fixes safely also helps in preserving impurities and litter box from the hot spa, as well as traps heat helping maintain your drinking water nice very hot.

Following long term use, the hot spa deal with can become waterlogged and unproductive. When this occurs, the cover can’t insulate heat well. For the reason that predicament, it might be time and energy to customize the deal with. Recognize that the hot spa deal with could also become put on and wrinkly wherever it is often folded and unfolded once a lot of occasions. Any -wrinkle within your hot spa deal with could also allow more temperature to flee, so that it is no more powerful while padding. Portable hot tub.

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Buy, Sell or Hold: HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) Has Absorbed the Financial Crisis' Impact and Is Now Exploiting It

Just a few short weeks ago, the May reporting period from NPD Group painted a rather unhappy portrait of the videogame market in North America and stocks like Activision (ATVI) and Electronic Arts (ERTS). Total sales were down by -20% for the same period in 2009, with major players in the video game software publishing business Activision, Electronic Arts, Ubisoft and others failing to make significant impressions on sales charts.

NPD reported sales for the June period this past Thursday, and while the software numbers were as soft as they were in May, video game hardware performed particularly well.

Overall, the numbers are less than thrilling. Revenue was down -6% over 2009, down to $1.10 billion from $1.17 billion. The real source of the decline is software sales. Video game stock Take-Two (TTWO) had a runaway hit Red Dead Redemption, whose May sales gave TTWO stock shareholders a much appreciated shot in the arm. Red Dead sold well in June with just under 1 million units sold across both the Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox 360 and the Sony (SNE) Playstation 3.? The rest of the software charts, however, were less kind. Nintendo (NTDOY) dominated with their games Super Mario Galaxy 2, New Super Mario Bros., and Wii Fit Plus taking up three spots on the top ten, but with Galaxy 2 their best seller at just 548,400 units sold, it’s hardly a banner month for the Big N.

Disney (DIS) made the charts with the Nintendo DS SKU of their Toy Story 3 tie-in, as did Warner Bros. Interactive‘s (TWX) Lego Harry Potter on the Nintendo Wii. THQ‘s (THQI) UFC 2010: Undisputed also returned to the charts but failed to sell more 300,000 units total across multiple platforms. Noticeably absent from the charts a! re major releases from ATVI like Transformers: War for Cybertron, a game based on the successful toy and film franchise, and their racing game Blur released in late May. NPD Group should announce games that made the 11 through 20 spots in the top 20 list this week, though no game in those spots will have sold more than 136,000 units.

The hardware market, meanwhile, was very healthy. While year to date hardware revenue is down 16% overall, June 2010 saw a +4.9% increase over June 2009, and an impressive 35% increase in unit sales. Leading the home console pack was MSFT who released a redesigned model of their Xbox 360 on June 19. Of the 451,700 Xbox 360s sold in June, however, just 40% were redesigned units according to Webush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter. Pacther estimates that some 35% of the units sold were of the Xbox 360 Arcade SKU which sells at just $150, bringing the system closer to the coveted impulse buy market.? SNE sold just 304,800 Playstation 3s in June, losing out to Microsoft but continuing their 11 month streak of year-on-year improved sales for the system. SNE has been suffering from supply constraints since this past January. NTDOY, as always, put in an incredibly strong showing with 422,500 Wiis sold in June and 510,700 Nintendo DS continuing their dominance of the portable games space.

Triple-Digit Profits No Matter What the Market Does You are not at the mercy of the markets. You can start adding triple-digit winners to your portfolio now if you’re ready to embrace the new rules of investing. Let Jon Markman, MSN Money Contributing Editor, show you how to make money every day in up markets AND down. — Download your FREE copy of this report here.

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(ISSC, R, CLNO, MWV, JPM) Stock to Watch by DrStockPick.com

Innovative Solutions & Support, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISSC) announced that the Company has entered into an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) agreement with Eclipse Aerospace to provide the Vantage Premier avionics suite for the EA500. Under this agreement, the Company will be the supplier of Primary Flight and Multi-Function Displays as well as the Integrated Flight Management and Electronic Flight Bag System on the Eclipse 500.

Innovative Solutions and Support��s President Roman Ptakowski stated, ��We are pleased to have been chosen to partner with Eclipse Aerospace for the supply of the cockpit avionics for the EA500. The Vantage Premier avionics suite is one of the most advanced cockpits available on any aircraft. The thirteen microprocessors in the IS&S displays control all major aircraft systems including Electronic Circuit Breakers, Radios, Transponders and Radars. FMS precision navigation, coupled auto-throttle, full VNAV, and Synthetic Vision give the Eclipse Twin-Engine Jet unrivaled performance. The aircraft specific synoptic pages provide for a graphical presentation and control of all major subsystems including calculations for Take-Off / Landing performance as well as weight and balance.��

The IS&S developed independent Integrated Standby System is also featured in the Eclipse aircraft with an unmatched performance in stability and accuracy of attitude, heading and airdata parameters.

Mr. Ptakowski continued, ��This OEM agreement illustrates the value of Innovative Solutions & Support��s products. We design all of our products to meet the most stringent industry requirements as well as to easily accommodate foreseeable future needs. They are equally suitable for owners of both newly manufactured aircraft and aircraft in need of an upgrade. The Vantage Premier enhanced avionics suite is available for integration i! nto othe r aircraft.��

Headquartered in Exton, Pa., Innovative Solutions & Support, Inc. (www.innovative-ss.com), designs, manufactures, and markets flight information computers, electronic displays, and advanced monitoring systems that measure and display critical flight information. These systems include RVSM and airspeed, as well as engine and fuel data measurements.

Ryder System, Inc (NYSE:R) announced that it has donated $45,000 to the Neva King Cooper Educational Center, a special needs education center for children and young adults with significant intellectual disabilities located in Homestead, Fla. The donation will be used to purchase SMART Boards to be installed in every classroom.

Ryder System, Inc. provides transportation and supply chain management solutions. It operates in three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC).

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO)

Cleantech Transit Inc. was founded to capitalize on technology advances and manufacturing opportunities in the growing clean energy public transportation sector. The Company has expanded its focus to invest directly in specific green projects. Recognizing the many economic and operational advances of converting wood waste into renewable sources of energy, Cleantech has selected to invest in Phoenix Energy (www.phoenixenergy.net). This project could benefit the Company’s manufacturing clients worldwide.

Biomass is a renewable energy source which is derived from woody plants such as trees; sawmill co-products; wood waste and other plant material (grasses and straw). Generally regarded as an environmentally sustainable fuel source when it is derived from sustainably managed forests. Regarded as “carbon-neutral” because the burning of biomass releases about the same amount of carbon dioxide into the a! tmospher e as it had absorbed while it was growing. Renewable because trees and crops can be replanted to replace what has been used. Biomass energy systems can generally provide low carbon footprint compared to other fossil fuels.

Cleantech Transit, Inc. (CLNO) is pleased to announce it has met its funding requirement to secure the Company’s ability to earn in 25% of the 500KW Merced Project.

The Company is in the final stages of closing its initial interest in the Merced Project and is currently working on completing the necessary documentation and expects closing the transaction soon. As previously announced Cleantech has the option to earn up to 40% of the Merced Project and the Company plans to continue to work towards increasing its interest in the Merced Project as they move ahead.

For more information about Cleantech Transit, Inc. visit its website www.cleantechtransitinc.com

MeadWestvaco Corporation (NYSE:MWV) announced it is listed on the 2011 Dow Jones Sustainability World Index (DJSI World) for the eighth consecutive year. The DJSI World recognizes the world’s leading companies in the areas of economic, environmental and social performance, and evaluates organizations based on their commitment to and success in integrating sustainability into core business objectives and performance.

MeadWestvaco Corporation provides packaging solutions to the healthcare, beauty and personal care, food, beverage, tobacco, and home and garden industries worldwide.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) announced that it has been appointed by Vanguard, one of the world’s largest investment management companies, to offer four of its U.S.-registered Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on the international segment of the Mexican Stock Exchange, Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV).

JPMorgan Chase & Co., a financial holding company, provides various financial services worldwide. Its Investment Bank segment provides various in! vestment banking products and services, including advising on corporate strategy and structure, capital-raising in equity and debt markets, risk management, market-making in cash securities and derivative instruments, prime brokerage, and research services serving corporations, financial institutions, governments, and institutional investors.

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JAKKS Pacific Rockets Downward

This week was a rough one for JAKKS Pacific (JAKK), the toy maker out of California. It issued a profit warning on its all-important Christmas quarter, as its toys haven't picked up traction among consumers. (In keeping with the standard corporate practice of blaming the economy for poor results though, management of course cited a "difficult retail sales environment for toys" as the only cause for the nearly 40% reduction in its estimate for holiday quarter sales.) The stock fell 20% in one day, and appears quite cheap relative to its cash flow.

The company trades for just $350 million despite a net cash position of $140 million and free cash flow above $50 million in each of the last two years. Last year, the company generated a return on equity of more than 11%.

If you think it's cheap, you wouldn't be alone among value investors. Oaktree Capital, which is run by Howard Marks (whose recent book is summarized here) made a bid earlier this year to buy the entire company for $20/share (it currently trades for under $14). Oaktree owned almost 5% of JAKKS at last check, while Dreman Value, run by David Dreman (whose books are summarized here) owns 6% of the company.

But there is enough hair on this company to give investors at least some pause. First, the company's debt is convertible into equity in a couple of years. The conversion price is only about 10-15% higher than the current price, but would result in the share count rising by more than 20%! As a result, under certain circumstances, equity investors may find themselves with significantly reduced upside potential.

Second, while the cash flow in recent years looks strong, it's a little bit suspect as to whether this is sustainable. First, depreciation and amortization are far higher than capex.

As a result, the company is likely enjoying all the cash flows associated with licensing certain brands without making the investments that will generate the same cash flows in the future.

Exa! cerbatin g this issue is the company's Goodwill situation. In 2009, the company didn't just take a big bath, it drowned itself in a 12-foot swimming pool. Hundreds of millions of dollars of Goodwill was written down in the process; but those purchased companies appear to be contributing healthily to the company's cash flow. I say this because the company is paying earn-outs to the sellers of the companies JAKKS has bought! This means the financial targets of purchased companies are being met/exceeded, even though the Goodwill of many of these companies has been wiped out. This suggests the company's return on equity is overstated at best and rather fictional at worst.

The management issue is a tough one to figure out. Though the current CEO was a co-founder of JAKKS, he only assumed the CEO role in 2009 (and was a co-CEO at that) and has been CEO by himself since 2010. Despite being a founder, his ownership position is rather small at 172 thousand shares, most of which consist of restricted stock grants he has received in the last couple of years! He takes home $4 million in salary, however, suggesting his incentives lie in growing the company rather than delivering shareholder value. This may explain why he rejected Oaktree's $650+ million purchase offer; he's not likely to think like an owner the way these incentives are lined up.

Because this is only his first full year running the company on his own, however, it's difficult to evaluate his ability as manager. As discussed in the first paragraph of this article, however, the year did not go well.

Finally, there's an issue with the company's cash position. Most of it is likely stuck overseas and subject to repatriation taxes if brought back home. This would serve to explain why the company needs debt despite a sizable cash position: the cash is stuck.

JAKKS definitely shows a lot of value potential, but there are clearly some risks here. Let me know what you decide, or what other factors you considered before making ! your dec ision.

Disclosure: No position{$end}

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Futures Rising After Italian Auction, Jobless Numbers

The Italian government sold government bonds at yields that showed improvement from last month, indicating some confidence among investors in the country’s prospects. Jobless claims in the U.S. rose 15,000 to 381,000 last week, the government reported.

Italian 10-year notes were yielding 6.98%, down from a high of 7.65% last month, but the Italian government failed to sell the maximum number of bonds it had allotted for sale.

The data appeared to please investors after a weak trading day on Wednesday, and stock futures were pointing up early.

Dow Futures rose 21 points to 12,102; S&P 500 futures rose 2.8 points to 1,247.3.

Fertilizer company Mosaic (MOS) fell 4% after announcing it plans to cut back on phosphate production because supply is now exceeding demand, the company said.

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WebMD Private Equity Bids Due Monday: Report

Adding to November reports by TheStreet that WebMD(WBMD), the New York Post reports that private equity firms bidding for the online healthcare company have a Monday deadline.

The New York -based company is increasingly in deal crosshairs as reports of private equity bidding interest circle, just as legendary investors Carl Icahn and George Soros increase holdings in the lagging stock.

KKR(KKR) and Providence Equity Partners are among four potential suitors for WebMD who have until Monday to firm bids, the Post reports, citing unnamed sources in a Thursday article.

According to Post , potential private equity buyers will look to finance a purchase by raising debt equal to six times the company's earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization, half of the 12 times EBITDA valuation that a sale may warrant.

The sale rumors follow November filings with the Securities and Exchange commission that activist Carl Icahn increased his WebMD stake to 9.5% from 7.9%, adding to top share stake in the company.

After reports of sale talks first were revealed by TheStreet, Icahn publicly stated a preference for the company to consider a $1 billion stock buyback program in favor of a sale. He considers the company "undervalued from a long-term perspective."

See Carl Icahn's portfolio.

Thursday's added reports of a potential WebMD sale process boosted shares nearly 8% to $37.42 and above $3.49 price that shares closed at after first sale reports surfaced. Even with a rumor-fueled stock, WebMD shares have faltered in 2011, falling nearly 30% year-to-date.

WebMD shares have gained nearly 50% since its 2005 IPO, however they fell to a post-crisis low of $25.56 in September.

In its third quarter earnings in November, the company reported revenue of $135 million and net income of $11.2 million that beat Wall Street expectations by a healthy margin, but it also lowered its full-year revenue guidance because of a slowdown in marketing spending by pharmaceutical companies.

At the time, the company forecast revenue of $555 million to $565 million, down from an August estimate of $580 million to $600 million.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

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Deck Construction Software Information

Even if the decking is made of wood, the vinyl deck railings are often chosen to help prevent rotting and cracking which can lead to dangerous falls when it involves the railing.The deck construction software allows different options to be programmed into it and different plans to be chosen that fit within those parameters. This is very important since there are city and neighborhood regulations that must be met when building a deck and the deck construction software helps individuals to find the deck that they love and that meets their needs within those rules and guidelines.

The vinyl deck railings are very easy to clean, only needing to be wiped down periodically so that they stay looking neat and clean. The software can show the individuals how their pool or furniture will fit into the space that will be provided by the deck. This is very important since the biggest mistake people often make in choosing a deck plan is to choose one that is not big enough for the use they are going to make of the deck. By using the deck construction software, the furniture can be placed within the deck to show whether there is enough room for all of it along with room to walk and maneuver comfortably on the deck.

The deck construction software also allows individuals to play with the shape of the deck, making it curved or making it have many levels rather than just one. It also allows individuals to play with the various decking patterns that are available, rather than just the standard way to lay the planks of the deck.

The vinyl deck railings also do not have the trouble that wood railings have with rotting or warping. They can often add built in planters and other decorative features to give them an all around feel for how the deck will look and function.

It can have decorative containers built into it for plants and flowers to grow in and can come in a variety of different colors. The deck construction software can alert individuals to these issues and recommend the types of sup! ports an d materials that would best serve that particular type of deck. There are also deck construction software programs available at do-it-yourself types of stores which will allow individuals to see different plans and play around with them before printing the plans and buying the materials from the store.

If you want to know more about furniture china and import furniture china you can ask the author for more information.

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The Price You Pay for Shopping at GameStop: Free Porn

Would you like a little nudity with your Mario and Sonic Olympic entertainment?

GameStop (NYSE: GME) has sparked a bit of controversy this morning for selling a used, E-rated game �C Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games �C without first checking its contents.

The game was sold to the mother of a six-year-old boy, which is where the problem begins. WSBTV.com reports (via My Nintendo News) that when the boy opened the game, he discovered a pornographic drawing that was presumably made by the previous owner.

Why would someone sell a used game with such an image, especially one that's geared toward children? No one knows. Frankly, I don't even like to write cheat codes in the instruction manual before deciding if I'm going to keep a game or not.

The boy's mother, Traci Turner, said that when she called the store to let them know about the issue, the employee thanked her for calling and hung up. ��It was kind of shocking because I expected them to have more of a reaction like I did,�� she told WSBTV.com. ��Like, ��Oh my gosh, can you bring it to us. I apologize.'��

To prevent this from happening again, the troubled mother said that she will only buy new games from now on.

Kind of ironic, isn't it? Game publishers have spent millions of dollars annoying consumers with DRM and silly download codes to persuade us from buying used games. Meanwhile, a single pornographic drawing does the trick and gains media attention without the negative backlash from DRM-hating consumers.

Brilliant move, GameStop. Brilliant move.

Follow me @LouisBedigian

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Healthcare Business Brief: Humana Spotlighted for 2012, Amgen Catches an Upgrade

Stryker (NYSE:SYK) is accused by Synthes in a lawsuit of raiding its San Francisco sales force and using confidential information from former employees. Synthes says in a complaint filed today that Stryker seeks to obtain “an improper competitive advantage�� in the industry for medical implants and instruments used in spinal surgery.

Investing Insights: Are Shareholders Benefiting From the Health Conscious Consumer?

Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:PPHM) shares jump after the developer of antibodies to treat cancer and viral infections says results for its bavituximab drug preliminary phase II trial to treat patients with hepatitis C showed antiviral activity. And, the treatment is safe.

Humana (NYSE:HUM) is seen by Investment U as one the best defensive stocks for 2012. Investment U notes that the impacts of new healthcare rules are minimal and the firm has substantial growth potential. A large number of analysts, roughly 68% of them rate the stock a Buy and the rest no worse than a Hold.

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) weighs in on Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) after digesting recent events related to the firm including its planned buyback of $5 billion worth of stock. Analysts cite prescription sales trends and a favorable dollar to euro climate as drivers, as they slot in 2012 earnings per share at $6.13 vs. Wall Street��s $5.82.

To contact the reporter on this story: Tanya Harding at staff.writers@wallstcheatsheet.com

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Damien Hoffman at editors@wallstcheatsheet.com

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Bank Failures Top 100, but Public Remains Confident in Deposits

Deutsche Bank (DB) is a leading global investment bank headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. The bank offers financial products and services for corporates, government, financial institutions, private and business clients globally. It competes with other global investment banks like Credit Suisse (CS), UBS (UBS), JP Morgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Deutsche Bank’s investment banking services come under our M&A and Capital Markets division, which comprises of Mergers and Acquisition Advisory (M&A), Equity Capital Markets (ECM) and Leveraged Debt Capital Markets (LDCM). The offering includes comprehensive financial advisory services on mergers & acquisitions (M&A), restructuring advisory and capital raising services in the debt and equity capital markets. For providing these services, Deutsche Bank, like other investment banks, charges a fee which is generally a percentage of the total value of the deal.

We estimate that the M&A and Capital Markets division constitutes around 6% of our $54.80 price estimate for Deutsche Bank’s stock.

Asian Growth Boosting Demand for Banking

Investment banking activity, which witnessed a steep drop during the recent economic downturn, has been picking up in 2010. Thomson Reuters releases annual league tables for M&A, equity capital markets, and debt capital markets and states that the value of global M&A activity increased to $2.4 trillion in 2010, nearly a 23% increase from last year. [1]

M&A advisory fees from completed transactions increased 27%. The increase in M&A activity in 2010 has largely been driven by growing demand from emerging markets, where investment banking activity increased around 76% from last year and accounted for around 33% of the total value. [1]

We estimate that M&A deal volume will recover after it dipped considerably in 2008 due to a decline in global M&A activity ($3.7 trillion in 2007 to around $2.0 trillion in 2009). As capital markets begin to normalize to pre-recession levels, we expect to see M&A activity hit 2007 levels by 2015. If instead, volume picks up and recovers to these levels by 2013 instead and fees on these deals recover to prior levels, this could contribute around 2-3% to our price estimate.

Deutsche Bank’s M&A market share globally has fluctuated ranging from 14-17% historically. It jumped significantly in 2008 as a result of a higher volume of deals completed by Deutsche Bank compared to the prior years. We expect Deutsche Bank to maintain a strong position in the M&A market as it focuses on expanding abroad.

We believe that Deutsche Bank’s established presence in emerging markets, and in particular Asia, could help it expand its M&A market share globally. [2] If market share reaches past levels by 2013, this could add another 1-2% to our price estimate.

If Deutsche Bank can use its global presence to secure higher M&A market share and assuming that fees and deal volumes return to past levels at a quicker pace than we currently expect, we could see at least 5% upside to our current estimates.

Notes:

1. Thomson Reuters Says Global M&A Activity Value Rose 22.9% in 2010
2. Asian M&A rankings: Deutsche upturns the M&A order

Disclosure: No position

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Time to dump your holdings, pack your bags and head for the beach?

“Sell in May and go away” is one of the most widely touted Wall Street adages. It’s based on historical data going back decades that show summer and early fall to be the worst time of year for stocks, while the biggest stock market gains are made from November through April.

But does it really make sense to dump all of your holdings, pack your bags and head for the beach? Or, in the midst of this powerful bull market, is sell in May one of those investment strategies that’s just plain silly (and possibly lazy)?

We asked some of our experts to weigh in on whether they thought it would be wise for you to sell in May, or if they could offer some better investment strategies for the months ahead.

Presidential Cycle Trumps Sell in May

Expert: Louis Navellier, Editor, Blue Chip Growth

Investment Strategy: Growth stock investing focused on fundamentals

His take: They say “sell in May” because huge inflows of cash from pension funding comes in November and April. This pumps money into the market and creates the biggest surge for the indexes, but when May rolls around, the inflows decrease. If you only invest in index funds, selling in May might be your best bet. But if you buy individual stocks and want to make money in 2011, don’t take your money off the table this summer.

We’re in the third year of a presidential cycle, and every such year of this cycle has been up since 1955. The second and third quarters have proven to provide some of the biggest gains of the year, and this is why you really shouldn’t sell this summer.

Now, I expect that the market will get more selective post-May, but that actually works in your favor, because the big money will be chasing fewer stocks, and the profit opportunity will be amplified. Where’s the money going to go? Right into companies with strong earnings and solid fundamentals. ! Look for companies with strong sales, earnings and margin growth, because this it where the rally will be while the junk will be left in the dust.

    

Market Timing Doesn’t Work

Expert: Dan Wiener, Editor, The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors

Investment Strategy: Winning strategies for Vanguard investors

His take: What’s missed in all this “sell in May” stuff is the fact that, outside of an IRA or other tax-deferred account, you pay taxes on any gains you may have accrued, which cuts into your returns dramatically.

Market timing doesn’t work, and there are plenty of examples when sell in May was wrong. Had you sold in May 2009, for instance, you’d still be waiting for the market to dip lower — and you would have missed out on months of positive gains that summer. Of course, certain defensive sectors tend to do well in the period, such as health care. But rather than make a market-timing bet, why not just make it a long-term part of your portfolio? You’ll sleep easier, and you won’t have to guess when to get back in.

Clean Up But Don’t Cash Out

Expert: Richard Band, Editor, Profitable Investing

Investment Strategy: Conservative investing for income and low-risk growth

His take: Like many catchy Wall Street slogans, “sell in May and go away” contains a kernel of truth. Yes, the stock market tends to generate smaller returns from May to October than in the other six months. Does it follow, though, that you should sell every stock and mutual fund you own on May 1, and buy them all back on Oct. 31? In many years, you would end up buying back at a higher price than you sold for. And, unless you confined yourself to no-load mutual fu! nds insi de a retirement account, you would, over time, heap up a king’s ransom in brokerage commissions and capital gains taxes.

The better strategy? Comb through your stock portfolio at least three or four times a year (April is as good a season as any), and clean out your marginal holdings — those that, in your judgment, have exhausted their near-term potential. Feed any free cash back into the market on the next 3%-5% pullback in the blue-chip indexes. Except in major downturns, it doesn’t make sense to cling to large cash balances. Resort to cash only if you can’t find enough stocks you trust for the long run.

Cash is Trash; Buy Global Stocks

Expert: Robert Hsu, Editor, China Strategy

Investment Strategy: Global stocks traded on U.S. exchanges (ADRs)

His take: I’m expecting to see a continuation and likely upward expansion of the trading range that we’ve seen throughout the spring in domestic markets, with emerging markets outperforming. This is a continuation and confirmation of my discussion that “cash is trash” right now, and that investors are moving in a big way to equities and hard assets.

The real engine of the world’s economy is in the emerging markets of Asia, driven by China. This is emphasized by the recent IMF report that expects for the “Age of America” to end, with China overtaking the United States in real terms as early as 2016.

For U.S. investors, it will be increasingly important to invest in strong global companies benefiting from the growth in emerging economies through both the summer and full-year 2011. Overall, I expect a relatively strong double-digit year for both domestic and global equities, with the outperformance coming from and driven by emerging markets during the second half. Sell in May and miss out on all the gains? I don’t think so.

Lagging Sectors Should Shi! ne

< p>Expert: Nancy Zambell, Editor, Buried Treasures Under $10

Investment Strategy: Undiscovered stocks priced under $10 per share

Her take: At every little blip in the markets, the doomsayers have been crying foul, but they’ve been wrong. The Dow has risen 10% so far this year, while the S&P 500 is up 8.7%, and the Nasdaq, 8.3%, with gains across a broad spectrum of sectors. Now, “sell in May and go away” is their new mantra. And I think they are still wrong; I’m looking for good performance in May, but more narrowly dispersed among sectors that have not yet had their day in the sun.

In 2011, energy and industrials have been the biggest winners so far. But health care, materials and consumer discretionary have not been far behind. It should be no surprise, as these are the sectors that most often lead during a period of economic recovery.

This march forward has been fantastic. Nevertheless, we’ve come far and fast, so I would not be surprised if the best-performing sectors did take a rest (not a decline) in May — albeit temporarily. That will give rise to opportunities in sectors that haven’t yet had a chance to shine, including regional banking and technology. And I also wouldn’t rule out selected names in health care. In short, don’t sell in May — just invest your new monies in a different way!

There’s More Money to Be Made

Expert: Hilary Kramer, Editor, GameChangers

Investment Strategy: Investing in the companies that are revolutionizing the way we live

Her take: Should you sell in May and go away? Absolutely not. Should you think about taking some profits if you’ve been fully invested? Absolutely.

I remain bullish on the market — to be honest, more than I thought I might be at this point. Liquidity from the Fed, low interest rates, strong earnings a! nd relat ively tame inflation are a powerful combination. I’m watching to see when some or all of these factors will come to an end, but that end doesn’t appear to be in sight quite yet. If you “go away,” you’ll almost certainly miss out on more gains.

At the same time, whenever you get a run like we’ve had — the S&P 500 is up nearly 30% from October through April — taking some profits and lightening up here and there is just smart investing. And, as we all know, the market is more volatile than it used to be. All it can take is one headline to bring stocks down.

So be smart about banking some of your profits. At the same time, please don’t go away. There’s more money to be made. Just be selective in the stocks you own. Look for companies that can continue to grow if (or when) some of the current positives turn negative — after all, this has been a supported rally — or companies with specific catalysts in place to drive them higher no matter what happens in the market.

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