Saturday, January 17, 2015

In Pursuit of Millennials, Retailers Become Makeover Artists

In Pursuit of Millennials, Retailers Become Makeover Artists Jin Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images NEW YORK -- Alison LePard, a 19-year-old college sophomore from Wellesley, Massachusetts, says that when she shops for clothes and accessories, her goal is a look that is uniquely hers. So she does a lot of mixing and matching. "I don't blindly follow what they put out," LePard said of store displays. "I don't want to wear just one brand. I don't want to be a stereotype." She's hardly alone. Recent surveys have found that members of the millennial generation -- the roughly 80 million Americans born between 1977 and 2000 -- pride themselves on their individuality, and shop accordingly. Compared with their parents, millennials are far less likely to identify with a political party or to formally affiliate with a religion -- key indicators of an independent streak -- according to Pew Research Center. As shoppers, they are less attached to brands and more willing to create their own style, surveys by Nielsen, The Boston Consulting Group and other researchers have found. This generational trait is forcing retailers to rethink everything from their merchandise and marketing to their dressing rooms and logos. Some companies, including H&M and Urban Outfitters (URBN), have ridden the individuality wave while others, such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Aeropostale (ARO), have been slow to react and are paying the price. At stake is the $600 billion millennials spend a year in the United States, according to Accenture (ACN), a sum that's projected to grow to an estimated $1.4 trillion in 2020, when the oldest of the cohort will be 43. Millennial men spend twice as much a year on apparel as non-millennial men, while millennial women outspent other generations by a third, the consultants said.

[Millennials] no longer want to be a walking billboard of a brand. Individualism is important to them, having their own sense of style.

Abercrombie's woes came into sharp relief last month when the company said it was shrinking its well-known logo and increasing its assortment of fashion for women, all to appeal more to 16- to 22-year-olds who don't want to look like everyone else. The move came after 10 straight declines in quarterly same-store sales. "They no longer want to be a walking billboard of a brand," said Michael Scheiner, an Abercrombie spokesman. "Individualism is important to them, having their own sense of style." Other companies are also adjusting their strategies to reach this elusive group. Gap's (GPS) new ad campaign, with the facetious tag line, "dress normal," is all about creating an individual style, the idea being that there is no normal. Aeropostale, for its part, says its new product lines by blogger Bethany Mota are meant to convey "authenticity, emotion and relevance." Mall owners have had to adjust, too. Indianapolis-based Simon Property Group (SPG) is now working with fashion magazines and fashion website Refinery29.com to entice millennial shoppers to the mall with videos, new designers and personalized advice. "Not looking like everyone else is key to everything about what we do," said Chidi Achara, Simon's global creative director. The drive to reach millennials comes during a difficult environment for retailers. Retail spending was flat in August, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, and household spending dropped by 0.1 percent in July, the first decline since January. In August, retailers ranging from Walmart Stores (WMT) to Macy's (M) cut their sales forecasts. How Millennials Shop Thanks to the Internet and smartphones, millennials are more informed shoppers than older generations. More than 70 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds recently surveyed by The Intelligence Group said they research options online before going to a store. Millennials spend a higher share of dollars online than other generations, according to market research and consulting firm NPD Group, though they still make 75 percent of their purchases at brick and mortar stores. With vast amounts of information easily available, they are savvy shoppers who know how to compare price, quality and convenience. Accustomed to building Facebook (FB) pages and other online identities, millennials are comfortable with the notion of mixing and matching different elements of their persona, a trait that carries over into their shopping choices, according to analysts and academics. To reach this first generation of "digital natives," it's no longer enough for stores to offer a rack and a dressing room. "People are looking to create a unique identity," said Allen Adamson, an author and branding expert at Landor Associates. "They want to put together their own story rather than have someone else tell them." In addition to an inviting website and easy payment system, retailers are trying to make shopping more exciting for this over-stimulated generation. At H&M's midtown Manhattan store, for example, shoppers can strut their stuff on the store's fashion walk and then possibly have their video selected to be displayed outside. Gap is stressing that same aspiration with its new "dress normal" ad campaign, which uses taglines such as "dress like no one's watching" and "simple clothes for you to complicate." Sales at Gap stores fell 5 percent in the last quarter. The company said the ad campaign is aimed at customers who want to "dress for themselves." That certainly describes Brianne Casey, a 24-year-old New Yorker, who studied marketing and now works as an assistant to a buyer for a retail chain. Casey said she shops at a variety of stores to get the best prices and follows fashion trends on blogs to see what's hot. But in the end, she said, "I like creating my own style."

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Brent oil tops $115 a barrel on Iraq worries

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, on Thursday pushed above $115 a barrel for the first time since September, boosted by continued worries over Iraq, while the U.S. benchmark lagged behind on supply concerns.

ICE August Brent futures (UK:LCOQ4) were up 93 cents, or 0.8%, at $115.19 a barrel. On Nymex, WTI crude futures initially traded lower but were then pulled higher as Brent rallied. The Nymex August contract (CLQ4)  rose 34 cents, or 0.3% to $105.93 a barrel. Nymex crude had topped $107 last week as Iraqi turmoil grew.

The risk premium built into Brent prices "is here to stay in the near future as long as the situation remains tense," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, strategist at VTB Capital. "There is no direct threat to the production facilities south of the capital just yet, but the market is not complacent about accounting for some degree of uncertainty here."

President Barack Obama on Thursday said the U.S. is prepared to take targeted military action in Iraq if warranted and that the U.S. would send up to 300 military advisers to the country. He insisted, however, that U.S. troops won't be returning to combat in the country.

Reuters A general view of Iraq's Baiji oil refinery in January 2009.

News reports said Iraqi government forces continued to battle Sunni militants for control of the country's biggest oil refinery in the northern town of Baiji. The refinery produces oil for domestic consumption and the fight isn't seen directly impacting exports from Iraq's crucial southern oilfields and facilities.

However, reports Wednesday that oil majors have begun to move nonessential personnel out of the south have highlighted concerns that exports could be curtailed. Iraq exports around 2.5 million barrels a day. Strategists have warned that significant disruptions could send oil toward $125 a barrel or higher. Meanwhile, the conflict has undercut expectations for Iraq to boost future oil production, which could provide a long-term floor for prices. See: Why Iraq means you can kiss idea of sub-$100 oil goodbye.

"Specifically, key infrastructure developments might be delayed, hampering export growth in spite of rising export handling capacity at Basra," in the south, wrote strategists at JBC Energy. However, in the north of Iraq, "the apparent consolidation of Kurdish power may in fact even herald higher exports," they said in a note.

Nymex futures were undercut Wednesday by a smaller-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration.

In other product markets, July natural-gas futures (NGN14)  fellnearly 4 cents, or 0.8%, to $4.62 per million British thermal units. July gasoline (RBN4)  rose nearly 3 cents to $3.13 a gallon, while July heating oil (HON4)  was up around 1.5 cents to $3.06 a gallon.

More from MarketWatch:

Larry Fink: There's good reason for this bull market to continue

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Low stock-market returns are the new normal

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Indexed Universal Life Insurance: A Rip-Off with a Fancy Name

'Document entitled life insurance, a pen and glasses on a desk. Close up image. This is an exclusive image and it can only be fo Getty Images How would you like to put money into a financial product that lets you benefit from market gains, but never feel the pain of its losses? The money and growth inside the policy will be 100 percent tax-free for life. That's the seductive pitch often used to tout an investment called indexed universal life insurance. Based on that sales pitch, it would be no wonder if your response were, "Sign me up for that right away!" Unfortunately, all that glitters is not gold. The sales materials for your IUL policy will almost always be illustrated with unrealistic compounded rates of return. But as we all know, stock market growth does not simply compound over time. Sure, you can measure an "average rate of return," but in the real world, prices oscillate, and performance can be a creature of timing much more than investing. In fact, an indexed universal life insurance policy will almost always leave you holding the bag. Let me clarify first that these are entirely different investments than the "properly designed whole life policies" that I wrote about back in March. When you invest money inside an IUL policy, you're setting up a life insurance policy with an annual renewable term cost of insurance. The extra money placed in the policy goes into sub accounts, and those funds will generally follow an index (or indices) in some form when that index increases in value. This structure will cause the cost of insurance to rise every year, which is why most people let these policies lapse in later years. One Man's $50,000 Premium A retired neurosurgeon at one of my seminars told me about his IUL nightmare. He invested substantial money in an indexed universal life insurance policy when he was 49. He funded this policy for 20 years, and the projected profits never seem to materialize. Among the reasons why: The projections that were illustrated for him were not realistic. The expenses of the insurance and many other hidden fees come out daily. The guaranteed growth of 3 percent was only payable at policy cancellation. Much worse was the bill when he turned 70. This policy was structured with a 20-year guaranteed term policy for the death benefit, and his premium hit almost $50,000 -- and not one nickel was going into any cash value. Surely, something must be wrong, you say? He assumed it was clerical error until he called the carrier and was told that is how those types of policies are built. In the 21st year of the policy, the premium was supposed to be almost 100 times the first year's premium, and it was only going to rise further, since term insurance gets more expensive as people age. This man closed the policy down, which meant he no longer would receive the death benefit, and even the pitiful gains his investment had realized were now taxable because he'd lost the umbrella of the insurance policy tax structure. Lousy Ideas, Without Clear Numbers Welcome to the wonderful world of indexed universal life insurance. I can't wait to see in this articles comments that somehow, one of you knows about a "special product" that has a "no lapse" guarantee or some other new (and yet old) wrinkle that allegedly makes these lousy policies better. These dogs with fleas are generally sold to those with high incomes, such as doctors, as a way to put loads of money away in a tax-free environment instead of the limitations of an individual retirement account or 401(k). The illustrations are not realistic and fail to speak plain English as to what is going to happen with these policies. If you have been sold one of these policies, examine the illustration you were shown and notice the cost of insurance cannibalizing the cash value in the later years of the policy. Study the cost of insurance, which will never be plainly spelled out in dollars and cents (your first clue something is amiss) but rather in decimal points. Watch how that number grows in the later years. If you have the misfortune of having one of these policies, you might still have an option to roll into a 1035 tax-free exchange. It would allow you (assuming you qualify health-wise) to exchange your cash value in your IUL policy into a properly designed whole policy with solid guarantees and fixed costs all disclosed up front. More from John Jamieson
•Good Debt, Bad Debt, and a Faster Way to Pay Off a Mortgage •Will End-of-Life Expenses Eat Up Your Estate? •Is Foreclosure Investing for You?

Why SolarCity (SCTY) Stock Is Gaining Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- SolarCity (SCTY) was gaining 7.4% to $61.30 Tuesday following research notes from Brean Capital and Goldman Sachs (GS), according to The Fly On The Wall.

In its note Goldman Sachs said that SolarCity is set-up favorably ahead of its earnings report. The firm said it expects the company to report deployments in the high-end of its guidance in its quarterly report. Goldman Sachs has a "conviction buy" rating for SolarCity.

Brean Capital helped raise the company's stock with its new "buy" rating for competitor SunPower (SPWR), which also commented on the growth in the Asia-Pacific solar market.

Must read: Warren Buffett's 10 Favorite Growth Stocks SELL NOW: If you own any of the 900 stocks that TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified as a 'Sell'...you could potentially lose EVERYTHING in the next 6-12 months. Learn more. TheStreet Ratings team rates SOLARCITY CORP as a Sell with a ratings score of D+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation: "We rate SOLARCITY CORP (SCTY) a SELL. This is driven by some concerns, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its weak operating cash flow, poor profit margins, generally high debt management risk and feeble growth in its earnings per share." Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows: Net operating cash flow has significantly decreased to -$8.43 million or 113.02% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing to the industry average, the firm's growth rate is much lower. The gross profit margin for SOLARCITY CORP is rather low; currently it is at 20.82%. It has decreased significantly from the same period last year. Despite the weak results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 56.43% has significantly outperformed against the industry average. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.08 is relatively high when compared with the industry average, suggesting a need for better debt level management. Regardless of the company's weak debt-to-equity ratio, SCTY has managed to keep a strong quick ratio of 1.89, which demonstrates the ability to cover short-term cash needs. SOLARCITY CORP reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. We feel it is likely to report a decline in earnings in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, SOLARCITY CORP reported poor results of -$0.75 versus -$0.56 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 244.0% in earnings (-$2.58 versus -$0.75). Compared to other companies in the Electrical Equipment industry and the overall market, SOLARCITY CORP's return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500. You can view the full analysis from the report here: SCTY Ratings Report STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet's Stocks Under $10 has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months.Learn more.

Stock quotes in this article: SCTY 

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Nomura Picked a Bad Day to Upgrade US Steel

I just wrote about iron miners getting pounded; now it’s time for the steel stocks like US Steel (X), AK Steel (AKS) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).

ASSOCIATED PRESS

US Steel has dropped 2.4% to $24.24 at 2:50 p.m., while AK Steel has fallen 0.9% to $6.26, Steel Dynamics has declined 3.4% to $17.11, and Nucor (NUE) is off 1.1% at $49.58. And yes, it’s for the same reason that iron miners are getting pounded: China.

The funny thing: Nomura’s Curt Woodworth upgraded US Steel to Buy from Neutral. He explains why:

[Free cash flow potential significant] as US Steel transformation elevates earnings profile. We are upgrading US Steel to Buy and increasing our PT to $32 from $27 to account for higher through-the-cycle EBITDA / FCF generation. After the stock's 18% correction since January (vs. S&P500 +2%), we see many reasons to own [US Steel]. After meeting with the CEO and CFO last week, we have increased conviction in the company's direction as well as the opportunity sets in the commercial, financial, and operating functions of the business. We see US Steel's cash flow significantly increasing in the coming years.

Well, after today’s drop, that would make US Steel an even better buy, wouldn’t it?

Monday, January 12, 2015

Fed continues to cut stimulus by $10B

The Federal Reserve agreed Wednesday to continue to pare its economic stimulus despite a slowdown in job growth last month.

In a statement after a two-day meeting, the Fed said it will buy $65 billion a month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, down from $75 billion. In December, Fed policymakers took their first step in tapering the program begun in September 2012, reducing the bond-buying from $85 billion a month.

The purchases are intended to hold down long-term interest rates and spur the economy and labor market.

FIRST TAKE: Fed action won't cheer markets

FED STATEMENT: Full text

DAVID MARSH: Tests loom for Janet Yellen

In its statement, the Fed noted that since its last meeting "labor market indicators were mixed" and the housing recovery "slowed somewhat." But it added that household spending and business investment "advanced more quickly in recent months." Policymakers also cited the labor market's "cumulative progress" since the Fed began the bond-buying and the improved outlook.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters last month that the Fed would continue to trim the purchases generally in $10 billion increments, assuming economic reports meet Fed projections. Bernanke said the bond-buying likely would be halted by the end of the year.

Employers added only 75,000 jobs last month, down sharply from a 200,000-plus monthly pace since last August. That raised questions about whether the Fed would hold off on tapering this month. But economists cited Labor Department data that indicated much of the decline was due to severe weather that temporarily kept workers at home.

The unemployment rate last month fell to 6.7% from 7%, edging closer to the 6.5% the Fed has identified as a threshold for when it could begin to consider raising its benchmark short-term interest rate. That rate has been near zero since the 2008 financial crisis.

But the Fed reiterated Wednesday that it will likely keep the short-term rate near zero "we! ll past" the time that unemployment falls below 6.5%.

The Fed agreed to reduce its purchases of Treasury bonds to $35 billion a month from $40 billion, and its purchases of mortgage-backed securities to $30 billion from $35 billion. The vote was unanimous. Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren, who dissented to the start of tapering last month, is no longer a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee.

Despite the weak jobs report, the economy generally has accelerated recently, with economic growth in the second half of 2013 estimated to exceed 3%. Meanwhile, some Fed policymakers have said the risks of the bond-buying, such as eventual high inflation and asset bubbles, have risen.

The meeting was the last for Bernanke, whose second four-year term ends Jan. 31. Bernanke is credited with helping lead the nation from the financial crisis and recession with a series of bold moves to pump cash into the economy. Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen will succeed him, becoming the first woman to head a major central bank.

Horse slaughter blocked by federal law

SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) — The resumption of commercial horse slaughter in the U.S. was blocked Friday as President Obama signed a budget measure that withholds money for required federal inspections of the slaughtering process.

Although the measure provides temporary funding for the federal government, it stops the Agriculture Department from spending money for inspections necessary for slaughterhouses to ship horse meat interstate and eventually export it to overseas consumers.

"This clear message from Washington echoes the opinions of an overwhelming number of Americans from coast to coast: horse slaughter is abhorrent and unacceptable," said Matt Bershadker, president and CEO of the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals.

The president's action came as a New Mexico judge granted a preliminary injunction against a Roswell company from moving forward with its plans to start slaughtering horses.

The ruling by state District Judge Matthew Wilson will keep alive a lawsuit by Attorney General Gary King, who's seeking to permanently block horse slaughter in New Mexico. The lawsuit could serve as a possible insurance plan in case the federal government provides inspection funding in the future.

Blair Dunn, a lawyer for Valley Meat, said the company will continue to wage a legal fight to convert its cattle processing plant to the slaughtering of horses. He contended that the federal move to withhold money for meat inspections could cause U.S. trade violations.

"I don't see them opening now. No matter what, they are not going to violate the law," said Dunn, who also represents a plant in Missouri that wants to produce horse meat.

The last domestic horse slaughterhouses closed in 2007, a year after Congress initially withheld inspection funding. After federal money was restored in 2011, plants in New Mexico, Missouri and Iowa began trying to start horse slaughtering.

King's lawsuit contends that the Roswell company's operations would violate New Me! xico's environmental and food safety laws.

Valley Meat is trying to disqualify the judge who's handling the case because of comments posted by horse slaughter opponents on a Facebook page for the judge's election campaign. Wilson issued an order Friday saying he would consider setting a hearing on the company's request.