Saturday, September 1, 2012

India Markets Monday Wrap-Up: Late Buying Fuels Indices

Indian stock markets languished in the red for the larger part of the trading session today on the back of relentless selling pressure across index heavyweights. However, the afternoon session saw buying activity picking pace as a result of which the indices managed to break above the dotted line. The final trading hour saw the indices close barely into the positive. While the Sensex today closed higher by around 23 points, the NSE-Nifty today closed higher by around 7 points. The BSE Mid cap and the BSE Small cap, however, bucked the trend as both closed lower by 0.2%. Gains were largely seen in banking and oil & gas stocks, while FMCG stocks were at the receiving end.

As regards global markets, Asian indices closed in the red today while European indices have opened mixed. The rupee was trading at Rs 55.49 to the dollar at the time of writing.

Auto stocks closed mixed today. While Tata Motors (TTM) and Hero Motocorp found favour, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motors closed in the red. The slowdown in the Indian economy continues to adversely impact Indian auto companies. Bajaj Auto has announced volume numbers for May 2012. The company sold 321,922 motorcycles in May 2012 compared to 317,989 units in May 2011, a tepid growth of 1%. The commercial vehicles (CV) segment registered a 26% fall, with sales declining to 30,297 units compared to 40,860 units during May 2011. Overall sales fell by 2% to 352,219 units compared to 358,849 units in May last year. It must be noted that for FY13, the company has set a target of selling a total of 5 m units, translating as a 15% YoY increase in overall volumes. During FY12, the company sold a total of 3.8 m motorcycles. Domestic motorcycles volumes stood at over 2.5 m units. The management expects the domestic market to grow at a pace of 6-7% on an overall basis this year. This 6% to 7% growth in volumes in the domestic market would translate to a total of 2.72 m to 2.75 m units. Therefore, to meet its target the company would have to go all out in selling motorcycles in the export markets this year.

Aurobindo Pharma had a forgettable FY12 wherein issues with the U.S. FDA (for plants unit III and unit VI), lower dossier income and anti-retroviral sales impacted overall performance. However, there has been some relief for the company. The FDA has started approving drugs from Aurobindo Pharma's unit III and is also expected to audit unit VI in July-September. Unit VI especially is a key facility manufacturing cephalosporins (anti-infectives) in the injectables space. It must be noted that the USFDA had inspected the company's unit III and unit VI, both located in Andhra Pradesh, in 2010 and found significant violations of its goods manufacturing norms. The regulator thus issued a warning letter to the company along with an import alert in 2011. Given that unit III is operating at optimum capacity, plans are to shift some production to unit VII. Having said that, once the company receives the green signal for unit VI, it will result in a ramp up in performance. From its unit VI, Aurobindo had made applications for a total of 24 drugs in the U.S. The stock closed 1% higher.

Stable Value Funds Receive Increased Scrutiny

Just as the underlying investments in supposedly “safe” money markets are receiving increased scrutiny, so too are the underlying investments in stable value funds.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is “shedding mortgage debt from a stable value fund, under pressure from insurers in a case raising questions about suitable investments for funds normally regarded as a super-safe haven for retirement savings," Reuters reports

Stable value funds, as the news service notes, are used in 80% of 401(k) self-directed retirement plans and are meant to be the most conservative choice for employees—liquid, plain vanilla and backed by insurance.

But the $1.7 billion JPMorgan Stable Asset Income Fund has invested as much as 13% in private mortgage debt underwritten and rated by the bank itself, according to documents reviewed by Reuters, leading to a potentially troubling conflict of interest. The portfolio is available through a collective trust, which pools assets among various 401(k) plans, as well as through separately managed accounts whose allocations closely mimic the portfolio.

JPMorgan cut that mortgage exposure to about 4% on Tuesday, but the industry average for all private placements in stable value funds is only about .5%, Reuters notes, citing Hueler Analytics.

The “stable value” largely comes from the purchase of insurance which, unlike money market funds, contains certain restrictions related to liquidity and redemptions. According to the Stable Value Investment Association, stable value funds are structured in two ways: as a separately managed account, which is a stable value fund managed for one specific 401(k) plan; or as a commingled fund, which pools assets from many 401(k) plans. Commingled funds offer the benefits of diversification and economies of scale for smaller plans.

“Regardless of how stable value funds are structured, they are comprised of a diversified portfolio of fixed income securities that are insulated from interest rate movements by contracts from banks and insurance companies,” according to the association’s website. “The protection from interest rate volatility is universal to stable value funds. How this contract protection is delivered depends on the type of stable value fund investment purchased.”

5 Rebranding Blunders: Netflix Joins List

Netflix (NFLX) is dumping its plan to rename its DVD business "Qwikster," joining the ranks of other failed rebranding efforts.

The company received a slew of backlash last month when it announced it would split up the company into two units -- one dedicated to its streaming service and the other for its DVD-by-mail business. Subscribers criticized the move as convoluted and clunky for users of both services and threatened to cancel their memberships.

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>Netflix Abandons 'Qwikster'On top of this, Netflix also failed to secure the Twitter handle for Qwikster, which was already owned by someone who refers to himself as "Elmo" and Tweets about smoking pot. Prior to the split-up announcement, Netflix already was contending with irate subscribers over a price hike and announcement that Liberty Starz (LSTZA)content will no longer be available streaming next year. The split-up, it seemed, was the last straw for subscribers. As a result, Netflix said it will keep the company intact, with just one Web site, one account and one password to access both rental ques. "It is clear that for many of our members two Web sites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs," Chief Executive Reed Hastings said on the company's blog. Netflix's quick abandonment of its DVD rebranding is reminiscent of several past branding blunders gone awry. Here's a look at some of the most memorable rebranding disasters.

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New Coke

One of the first major branding blunders came from Coca-Cola (KO) when in 1985 it introduced the infamous "New Coke."

The company changed the 99-year-old formula of its popular soft drink, simply calling it "the new taste of Coca-Cola," which apparently was a sweeter version of the original. The reaction to the change was profound, and New Coke was ultimately a marketing failure. Coca-Cola reverted back to the original formula just three months after the change, re-branding it "Coca Cola Classic," and resulting in a significant gain in sales. New Coke lingered on store shelves until the early 1990s.The move led to speculation that New Coke was simply a marketing ploy.

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Gap Logo

Gap(GPS) quietly redesigned its iconic logo in October 2010, but the response from shoppers was anything but quiet.

The new logo, designed by Laird and Partners, updated its original 20-year-old predecessor with a small blue box sitting above the "p". Gap shoppers took to the Internet, with people on Facebook saying that if Gap kept the new design they would no longer shop at the store. The company responded to this backlash, asking consumers to submit their own ideas for a new logo. But within a week Gap reverted back to its old logo, leaving consumers to criticize its amateurish attempt at rebranding. And Gap's president at the time, Marka Hansen, resigned just weeks after the failed logo.

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Tropicana Carton

Who knew consumers were so attached to their orange juice carton?

Tropicana found out in January 2009 when it redesigned its container. The company, a division of PepsiCo(PEP), replaced the classic straw-in-orange with a simple glass of orange juice. Branding experts criticized the new packaging saying it made Tropicana look like a generic store brand and stripped it of its personality. As a result, sales plunged 20% following the redesign, and Pepsi received significant backlash. Tropicana scrapped the new packaging two months after its release.

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The Shack

Amid declining sales, RadioShack (RSH) decided to rebrand the company "The Shack" in 2009.

This was a clear move by the electronics retailer to emphasize its non-radio offerings. "When a brand becomes a friend, it often gets a nickname -- take FedEx or Coke, for example," Lee Applbaum, chief marketing officer of RadioShack, said in a release at the time. "Our customers, associates and even the investor community have long referred to Radio Shack as 'The Shack,' so we decided to embrace that fact and share it with the world."But the company didn't go so far as to officially change the name of the store, instead it left RadioShack signage and adopted "The Shack" nickname in its advertising campaign. "The Shack" became the butt of jokes, but the company continues to use the nickname.

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Comcast Becomes Xfinity

Comcast's(CMCSA) decision to re-name itself Xfinity earned the No. 1 spot in Time magazine's Top 10 Worst Corporate Name Changes in 2010.

The company changed the name of its cable television, Internet and phone services in February 2010. While the name of the company remained Comcast, it rolled out Xfinity on its cable trucks, uniforms and advertisements. "We are beginning to reposition the company with the consumer, demonstrating how the technical and product investments we have made can redefine how customers experience video, voice and the Internet," CEO Brian Roberts said at the time. The name change came as Comcast dealt with subscribers beginning to abandon its service for Internet video. At the time, Comcast also faced a bad rap, and it was believed the company adopted Xfinity to try to change customers' perception. -Reported by Jeanine Poggi in New York. Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

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Asia Markets Rise; Infosys Slides

Asian stock markets generally rose Friday, as cooler-than-expected Chinese growth strengthened expectations that Beijing could ease its monetary policies further.

More in Markets
  • Dow Posts Best Day in a Month
  • South Korean Stocks, Won Rise on Rocket Failure

But India's stock market fell after software bellwether Infosys delivered a weak revenue outlook for the fiscal year that began April 1.

China's rate of economic growth slowed to 8,1% in the first quarter, down from the 8.3% that economists had forecast. Speculation that growth would be stronger than expected had lifted U.S. stocks on Thursday

While the result marked a sharp slowdown from the fourth quarter, when growth hit 8.9%, "green shoots have sprung up in many sectors, convincing us that the current slowdown looks more and more like a slow consolidation, rather than a precipitous downturn." said Xianfang Ren, senior China analyst at IHS Global Insights.

Additionally, slowing growth may support expectations that the Chinese government will ease monetary policy.

"We believe that the government will react to this weaker-than-expected GDP growth rate by introducing more policy measures to boost lending, speed up project starts, encourage consumption, and support property sales," Jun Ma, Deutsche Bank greater China chief economist said. "The fact that the trough of sequential growth is likely behind us and that further policy easing is forthcoming in the second-quarter will provide a very positive environment for the equity market."

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 1.8% to 20701.04 and Japan's Nikkei Stock Average added 1.2% to 9637.99, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1% to 4323.3 and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.1% to 2008.91.

China's Shanghai Composite edged up 0.4% to 2359.16 and Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 0.3% to 2987.82.

But the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index fell 1.4% to 17094.51.

Markets showed relief when North Korea's rocket launch on Friday morning fizzled out, with the rocket breaking apart soon after liftoff. Also supporting sentiment were comments from the president of the New York Federal Reserve on Thursday that helped spur hopes of more stimulus and investors also welcomed lower borrowing costs in Europe and strong lending data from China.

In Hong Kong, financial and property sector firms rallied. Agricultural Bank of China jumped 6% and Ping An Insurance Group climbed 4.3%. China Overseas Land & Investment added 2.4% and China Resources Land rose 5.5%.

China Cosco Holdings slipped 0.2%, also in Hong Kong, after reports the shipping giant could seek up to 10 billion yuan ($1.59 billion) from the Ministry of Finance after record losses in 2011.

Resource firms in Australia gained, though they slipped from the day's highs after the weaker-than-expected growth figures from key customer China. Global miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto advanced 1.7% and 2.3% each, while copper producer PanAust gained 4.5%.

Lynas jumped 7.8% after the rare-earths miner won a court challenge to its effort to complete a processing plant in Malaysia.

In Tokyo, index heavyweight Fast Retailing leapt 8.6% after the fast-fashion company revised up its full-year earnings outlook as it reported six-month results late Thursday.

Sony tumbled 5.5% after the strategy unveiled by its new chief executive, included a three-year plan to increase revenue to ¥8.5 trillion (about $105 billion) failed to impress investors.

"I can't see any way Sony can possibly achieve that kind of number, especially since its business has been shrinking," said David Rubenstein, senior technology analyst at Religare Global Asset Management Japan.

In Mumbai, Infosys plunged 13% to its lowest level in more than six months, pulling down rivals Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services, after India's second-largest software exporter by sales said it expects this fiscal year revenue to grow 8% to 10%. That is short of the forecast of 11% to 14% growth for the sector from outsourcing industry body Nasscom.

—Miyuki Seguchi contributed to this article.

3 Beaten-Down Brazilian Buys

As the U.S. indices mounted one of their strongest Octobers ever, the S&P 500�s 11.5% return paled in comparison to the 21% surge in the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE:EWZ). Impressive to be sure, but that�s only part of the picture. If you go back through all of 2011, the S&P 500 is slightly in positive territory through the first 10 months while the EWZ was down almost 19%.

It�s been a tough year for Brazilian stocks thanks to concerns about the global economy. Brazil is rich in natural resources, so commodity exports are a big driver of growth there. Fears over slower growth around the world — and some think a recession is looming — have hit commodity- and natural resource-related stocks especially hard.

By many measures, Latin American stocks haven�t been this cheap since the U.S. financial crisis three years ago. And while red-hot growth in emerging markets might have cooled for the time being, it isn�t going away. The good news is that the dip this year minimizes further downside risk, and many of these stocks are poised for a nice move when there are signs the global economy is strengthening.

Here are three beaten-down Brazil buys that could be viewed as value plays, growth plays — or both. Heck, they could even be considered income plays, because all three have very nice dividend yields.

Vale

Vale (NYSE:VALE) is the second-largest mining company in the world and the largest producer of iron ore, which is the most produced and consumed mineral in the world. And prices have held up much better than other commodities like copper and nickel in recent weakness. This relative strength should continue going forward when you factor in supply and demand, especially in emerging markets.

In the third quarter, Vale�s profits fell 18% from 2010, but most of that was because of weakness in Brazilian currency. Revenues actually increased 16%, and the company produced a record amount of iron ore in the quarter. Iron ore sales volumes did fall slightly, but prices were 18% higher than the third quarter of 2010 and near record levels.

The stock is down 25% in 2011, and management said in its third-quarter earnings statement that a deep global recession already is priced into VALE shares. I would largely agree with that. I like VALE as a long-term play on emerging-markets growth, which we know will continue to be strong. A temporary slowdown or even recession would delay an upside move, but it wouldn�t derail it. Plus, you collect a nice 7% dividend yield.

Itau Unibanco

Itau Unibanco (NYSE:ITUB) is the largest private-sector bank in Brazil. (Banco do Brasil has the most assets, but it is controlled by the government.) As with many other financials this year, the stock has struggled, losing 20%.

For the rest of this year and into 2012, a weak global economy could keep a lid on growth as interest rates are lower than they used to be and fewer loans are being made. Longer term, however, banks in Brazil will benefit from the acceleration of growth and additional wealth created in a rising middle class.

ITUB is strengthening itself in a weak environment by cutting costs and increasing efficiency, which increases the upside potential as the economy strengthens. The stock is a value at just 8.1 times expected 2012 earnings and kicks out a 3.4% yield.

Embraer

Not surprisingly, orders for jet airplanes have not exactly been robust in the slow economy. And while a surge in orders isn�t imminent, the longer the drought continues, the more pent-up the demand for when orders do start to flow again.

Brazil�s Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) is an exciting growth story in both regional jets used by airlines as well as private business jets. The regional jet is a growing area of commercial aviation because these smaller, fast and sleek single-aisle planes are used for shorter distances and often are waiting in hubs to be the first or last leg of a journey for anyone traveling to and from places such as Daytona, Santa Fe, Cedar Rapids, White Sulphur Springs and Vail. The reason: It is more economical to run these smaller planes than fly large aircraft at low passenger capacity. This technique is being used in Asia and Latin America, too. Airports are springing up, and regional jets are a great way to service them.

In business jets, the company is ready to unveil new models (the Legacy 450 and 500), which are expected to be very successful. China also is an important market for Embraer in the executive jet area. It can�t sell regional jets there for competitive reasons, but air travel is growing fast in China, and Embraer has made that country enough of a priority that it now does final assembly of planes in China.

Through the first three quarters of 2011, Embraer delivered 122 planes. What�s interesting, however, is that the company is sticking by its target of 220 plans for the year. That will mean a busy fourth quarter of 100 deliveries if it is to meet that goal. Part of the reason for the year-end frenzy is the June earthquake in Japan slowed down production of some engines, pushing delivery back. I think 2012 should see at least that many planes delivered and possibly more if the global economy gains traction.

ERJ is down about 3.5% for the year, which is better than many of its Brazilian counterparts, and it yields a nice 5.6%. It�s still pretty cheap at 11 times next year�s earnings, and I expect the stock to move in anticipation of a stronger economy.

As of this writing, Hilary Kramer did not own a position in any of the aforementioned stocks.

Ensco: Dividend Dynamo or the Next Blowup?

Dividend investing is a tried-and-true strategy for generating strong, steady returns in economies both good and bad. But as corporate America's slew of dividend cuts and suspensions over the past few years has demonstrated, it's not enough simply to buy a high yield. You also need to make sure those payouts are sustainable.

Let's examine how Ensco (NYSE: ESV  ) stacks up. In this series, we consider four critical factors investors should examine in every dividend stock. We'll then tie it all together to look at whether Ensco is a dividend dynamo or a disaster in the making.

1. Yield
First and foremost, dividend investors like a large forward yield. But if a yield gets too high, it may reflect investors' doubts about the payout's sustainability. If investors had confidence in the stock, they'd be buying it, driving up the share price and shrinking the yield.

Ensco yields 2.9%, quite a bit higher than the S&P's 2%.

2. Payout ratio
The payout ratio might be the most important metric for judging dividend sustainability. It compares the amount of money a company paid out in dividends last year to the earnings it generated. A ratio that's too high -- say, greater than 80% of earnings -- indicates that the company may be stretching to make payouts it can't afford, even when its dividend yield doesn't seem particularly high.

Ensco's payout ratio is a moderate 52%.

3. Balance sheet
The best dividend payers have the financial fortitude to fund growth and respond to whatever the economy and competitors throw at them. The interest coverage ratio indicates whether a company is having trouble meeting its interest payments -- a ratio less than five can be a warning sign. Meanwhile, the debt-to-equity ratio is a good measure of a company's total debt burden.

Let's see how Ensco stacks up next to its peers:

Company

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Interest Coverage

Ensco 48% 12 times
Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO  ) 35% 16 times
Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP  ) 11% 40 times
Rowan (NYSE: RDC  ) 26% 8 times

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

4. Growth
A large dividend is nice; a large growing dividend is even better. To support a growing dividend, we also want to see earnings growth.

Here's how Ensco has performed over the last few years:

Company

5-Year Earnings-Per-Share Growth

5-Year Dividend-Per-Share Growth

Ensco (7%) 70%
Diamond Offshore Drilling 12% 0%
Helmerich & Payne 8% 9%
Rowan Companies (16%) 0%

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Ensco's dividend growth figure looks massive because the company really began paying serious dividends in 2010.

The Foolish bottom line
Ensco exhibits a fairly clean dividend bill of health. It has a decent yield, a moderate payout ratio, and a reasonable debt burden. Dividend investors will want to keep an eye on how well the company's recent acquisition of Pride International is integrated and how successfully Ensco is able to use its new assets to boost its earnings. To stay up to speed on Ensco's dividend progress, add it to your stock watchlist. If you don't have one yet, you can create a free, personalized watchlist of your favorite stocks by clicking here.

5 Ways to Keep Your Car Out of a Snowbank

Despite holiday songs' claims to the contrary, dashing through the snow is exactly what most drivers want to avoid as winter weather approaches.

American roads crammed with cars sporting the same all-weather tires they took on summer vacation and filled with folks who expend the same amount of effort cleaning snow off their cars as they do wiping fog off the bathroom mirror after a shower can be treacherous once snow or ice enters the mix. Of the 6.3 million accidents the Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says occur on U.S. roads each year, more than 1.5 million are weather related.

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In states cold enough to let the flakes fall, snow and sleet account for 225,000 accidents, or 15% of weather-related crashes, each year. Roughly 70,900 people are injured in those crashes, while 870 are killed. Ice causes its fair share of problems on an annual basis, accounting for 190,000 accidents, 62,700 injuries and 680 deaths on American roads each year. Even slush is a lot less pleasant than its convenience-store treat name implies, killing 620 people each year and injuring another 47,700 in 168,300 accidents.A super-sized SUV or your all-wheel-drive suburban soccer shuttle won't necessarily keep drivers safer, either. While ground clearance is certainly nice when drifts pile up in the driveway, and four-wheel drive comes in handy for pulling your car out of a plowed-in snowpile, they won't stop a car if it's skidding or keep it on the road in tight corners. Mark Cox, director of the Bridgestone Winter Driving School in Steamboat Springs, says winter driving safety has little to do with the Ford(F), Chevy(GM), Toyota(TM), Honda(HMC) or Nissan(NSANY) drivers buy and everything to do with how a driver prepares for the season.With an emphasis on traction, vision and snow-covered street smarts, Cox shared five suggestions for preventing your car from becoming that flipped-over roadside mess that factors into seemingly every local television snow traffic story. Those plows didn't push all that snow to the sides of the road just so you could turn it into an impromptu parking space during rush hour:

1. Put on the snow tires What can make a Hyundai Sonata handle a snow-covered road as well as a Volvo wagon? A decent set of snow tires.

Unlike their more sensitive sibling, the all-weather tire, snow tires rely a lot more on real rubber and don't stiffen up as much when the weather turns chilly. There's also a lot more tiny tread on the tire surface to take away winter moisture more quickly. The downside is that winter tires can start at $100 a pop, can cost as much as $1,000 to $2,000 once a driver invests in a new set and wheels and require both storage space and some seasonal labor when they're switched out. The upside is that those tires can stop a car up to 50% faster than their all-weather counterparts."Generally, the difference between the best all-season tires and the best winter tires is about 30% to 50% in traction," Cox says. "Snow-tire engineering has taken a quantum leap over the last decade, and most people don't realize what's really available out there and how much difference it can make."If Cox's Bridgestone connection seems a bit of a conflict of interest in this area, consider that Michigan Technological University's Keweenaw Research Center in Houghton, Mich., also strongly suggests making the switch to snow tires before the season begins. Not only do they provide more traction and stability, but they're saving both of your sets of tires a lot of wear and tear.

2. Clean off your car ... the whole carHey. You. The driver who thinks it's perfectly fine to just brush off the car windows and let the wind finish the job once you're on the road: You're a disgrace.

That snow you're just allowing to blow off the hood? It's going right onto your windshield, gunking up your wipers and making it harder for you to see the road. That veritable igloo on your roof? It just blew straight into the field of vision of the car behind you, which wouldn't be so bad if you'd bothered to clear off the snow off your taillights. You've basically just given the car behind you permission to take off your back bumper and/or ram you into the nearest ditch. But since you clearly lack any sort of sympathy and aren't motivated by the needs of others, perhaps we'll put this in terms that can penetrate that little invisible sphere you consider your world: "If you don't clear the roof off before you start driving, almost instantly your rearview becomes obscured," Cox says. "If you're unlucky enough to have it warm up just enough during your trip and you stop at a stop light, all that stuff can slide forward and obstruct your vision out of the windshield as well."At the very least, it'll ruin your view or cause you to stop short and spill that coffee you just spent 15 minutes placing such an intricate order for. At worst, it'll render you snowblind just as you're coming to a well-worn and likely slick intersection where your stopping ability will be similar to that of a sliding penguin. Of course, if you're not cleaning snow off of the fairly obvious areas, chances are you're not clearing out or applying snow-resistant silicone to the wheel wells and are basically oblivious to your lost breaking power. That isn't going to end well."When you go on a long trip, especially when it's warm, you can get a lot of snow and slush buildup in the wheel wells, and it typically isn't a problem," Cox says. "If you're out traveling all day and the wheel wells are packed full and you park outside overnight when it's cold, you might find that the next day your brakes or your tires might be frozen to your inner fender and it make take away some of your suspension."

Watch the roadThis bit of advice doesn't just cover the black tarmac with the little white lines on it, but everything under and around that roadbed.

On highways, this means looking out for the "phantom shoulder." If a plow has a nice, flat edge that can push snow well off a road and flatten it out along the way, a steep ditch by the roadside can suddenly appear to be a wide shoulder lane."In reality, that's just soft snow that your car will sink right into," Cox says. "Some telltale signs for avoiding that are the delineator posts with reflectors or shadows and grass sticking through that smooth area." If a driver does manage to get snagged in such a snow trap, Cox advises against yanking the wheel back toward the road, which will only create more problems. Instead, a driver who feels the car sinking should hold the wheel gently and steer smoothly back into traffic.That gentle approach is basically the key to all winter driving. When taking curves, for examples, Cox advises braking before the curve when the car is traveling straight, taking your foot off the brake before steering into the curve and accelerating only when the car straightens out at the end of the turn. Reading the terrain is similarly important, especially at intersections where ice is smoothed out from various cars braking in the same spot and on hills where drivers spin their tires in the same place with similar results. Bridges also ice over earlier than normal roads and areas shaded by trees, buildings or even billboards get slick quicker than other spots. "You have to identify the portions of the road that become slippery before everything else," Cox says. "Even if you're in a hilly area and you drive around from the south or west, there are going to be shadows and it's going to be slippery."

Wipers on, lights onClearing the headlights, taillights and signal lights is great and all, but not very helpful if you're not turning them on.

During the day, there's a simple rule to follow when you're driving during a snowfall: If your wipers are on, your lights should be too. Fog lights aimed low can improve visibility in nonurban areas where drivers aren't blinding people, but keeping the lights on during a daytime snowstorm is as much about being seen as it is about seeing. "Any time you turn your wipers on, that mean visibility is less than ideal, so go ahead and turn the lights on," Cox says. "That's not necessarily so you can see, but so others can see you under less-than-ideal light conditions."When it comes to night driving and near-whiteout conditions, however, there's only one option: the low beams. High beams are just going to bounce right back at you, and while low beams don't fare much better when it comes to improving visibility, they give you and your fellow drivers a fighting chance. When those other drivers make their presence felt in the oncoming lanes, however, Cox recommends focusing on the right side of the roadway to avoid glare and maintain decent night vision.

Wear sunglassesIt seems like an odd strategy in the middle of winter, but any skier or snowboarder can tell you that tinted shades make it a lot easier to see changes in snowy terrain.

It's not advisable to just pick up the first pair of reflective aviators you come across and barrel into a blizzard, or take the Corey Hart approach and wear them for night driving, but sunglasses can have a significant impact when you've spent the past hour of your commute staring into a field of white."Generally sunglasses, especially lighter-tinted sunglasses, can allow you to see with a little bit better depth perception in low-light conditions," Cox says. "You can see the subtle shadows and the changes in the road and any little benefit you can get is going to make your decisions better as a driver." >To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/notteham. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>10 Cheap Vacations For Expensive Times>>6 Essentials For Airline Travel Survival>>10 Best Craft Beer Vacation DestinationsFollow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

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Buy This Dip… At Your Own Peril

 

Eurozone concerns have absolutely crushed stocks this week. Very few names have been able to shake off the negative sentiment, proving once again that positive earnings or guidance just doesn’t matter right now.

We are in a news-dominated market. As long as the press remains focused on the deepening crisis in Europe, it will be difficult for individual stocks to find higher ground. It will most likely take a major resolution to decouple stocks from the eurozone’s grip. Until that time, sentiment could continue to snap from bullish to bearish on the smallest rumor.

Yet, even if you ignore the news completely, the markets give important clues that can indicate where we might be headed in the coming days and weeks— and judging by how stocks are behaving this morning, I would not rush out to buy this dip. Here’s why:

Indecision on “non-event” days is crippling positive momentum. If you’re looking for the market to snap back with a powerful performance following a broad downward move, don’t hold your breath.

Since the beginning of November, stocks have struggled to string together more than one day of upside action. This is especially prevalent in small-cap stocks. On the days before Wednesday’s big drop, buyers and sellers yanked stocks back and forth to no avail. The close ended up the same as the open, with a lot of noise in between.

The market can’t match October’s highs. None of the major indexes have been able to top their late October highs. While I didn’t expect the pace of the October rally to sustain itself through the end of the year, it would have been ideal to see the market digest the move with additional sideways action.

Instead, several sharp downward moves have effectively corrected a good chunk of the preceding rally. It will take much more conviction from the bulls to push equities any higher.

Support levels are holding, but for how long? The silver lining today is that the S&P 500 appears to be holding a major support zone.

How to Beat the Stock Market Casino

For a lot of people, the stock market looks like one big casino.

And, to some extent, the casino analogy works. There are parts of the market that are consistent losers for investors…

The initial public offering market is one of those. It�s true that some IPOs are big winners. Anyone who bought Microsoft or Home Depot or Wal-Mart at the IPO and held on got rich. These are people somewhat like those who hit the jackpot playing slots. It�s not a typical experience. Most of the time, if you buy IPOs, you�ll lag the market. In truth, an IPO is when insiders sell something they no longer want at prices they�d never pay.

There are lots of other ways to lose money in the markets. In my book Invest Like A Dealmaker, I cited research by J. Carlo Cannell that showed how restaurants, semiconductor capital equipment companies and computer manufacturers were industries that actually generated negative returns for investors for more than 20 years running.

But the casino analogy falls down in lots of other ways. If you know what to look for, you don�t have to play the loser games. You can choose to play only games in which the odds tilt in your favor. Then, over the long haul, with patience and diligence, you will make a lot of money.

What you want to look for is one of those pools from which investors consistently take money out of the market. These include things like spinoffs,thrift conversions and other quirky sets of ideas that collectively beat the market over time�

For many of these, there are structural reasons for the outperformance. In other words, how the market creates these securities practically bakes in the outperformance.

Today I want to share with you another idea along these lines: a post-bankruptcy stock.

Joel Greenblatt � who wrote the bible on �Special Situations� investing and enjoyed 10 years of earning 50% annual returns doing it � writes:

�The new stock of a formerly bankrupt company may be relatively undervalued because Wall Street analysts don�t yet cover it, because institutions don�t know about it or simply because the company still retains a certain stigma from the bankruptcy filing.�

Bankruptcy is a wonderful thing. It allows a company to hit the reset button and start over. Sometimes good companies go bankrupt simply because they got caught during a bad time with too much debt. Bankruptcy rights that situation and sends the company back out into the world with a better balance sheet.

So you can still find good companies � with good market niches, cash flow and margins � coming out of bankruptcy.

University of Charleston: How we cut tuition by 22%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- After seeing enrollment decline for the first time in a decade, the University of Charleston, in West Virginia, slashed tuition by 22% for the upcoming school year hoping to entice more students.

The school, which currently has 1,006 undergraduate students, employed a series of initiatives to afford the cut, including reducing its financial aid, sharing professors with colleges in the region and graduating students early. As a result, tuition for new students will be $19,500 per year beginning in August -- down from the current rate of $25,000.

In an interview with CNNMoney, the university's president, Dr. Edwin Welch, explains why he took this unusual step and what the impact has been so far:

Why did you decide to cut tuition?

Last year, there were 30 students or so who had enrolled at the university but changed their minds after August 1. They went to different places -- we lost some students who transferred to community colleges. This was a new event for us.

We realized parents and families were now considering the overall price, not just the discount [financial aid and scholarships] they would be able to get. As universities we tend to market education the same way Joseph A. Banks advertises clothes, thinking the advertised price is not that important but the discounts are the most important part. But that's what is driving middle-class students away. So it seemed we needed to take a fresh look.

How did you decide on a 22% cut?

We had thought about cutting tuition by 20% at first, but the board said the total price should be under $20,000, so we cut it a little further and agreed on a ceiling price of $19,500.

How are you able to afford to cut tuition by 22%?

We've undertaken about half a dozen initiatives to reduce what it costs to run the institution.

We have a faculty-sharing program, which is a new initiative for this upcoming year. We'll share professors between five schools to teach certain subjects. We also have a fast-track program, and 35% of the students who come to our school and stay earn a degree in three years instead of four or enroll in graduate school. That means students can replace a year of tuition with a year of income.

We have not lowered salaries.

Has the school reduced the total amount of financial aid it is offering to students?

We reduced how much aid we're giving overall. We're guaranteeing no one will pay more than $19,500.

Numbers won't be complete until the end of the year, but if we had 1,000 students and reduced tuition by $5,500 per student, that's $5.5 million that's not going to be awarded in financial aid. But on the other hand, all of our students get a discount anyway because we reduced the overall price.

We still have financial aid available -- a significant amount. This year we probably gave $15 million in financial assistance. Next year, we'll give maybe $10 million.

What has been the impact of the decision to lower tuition so far? Have you seen applications increase?

So far, the reaction from parents and students has been very positive. We expected a spike in applications, and applications are up nicely in our primary markets -- West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky. Total applications are ahead of our two-year average but slightly behind last year.

More importantly, our deposits are up 40%. This suggests that students and families who look at us are finding the new tuition structure attractive and are depositing at a higher rate than previously.

As part of its 5-year vision, your university hopes to increase enrollment -- which currently stands at a total of 1,372 undergraduate and graduate students -- by 79%. Do you think this is a realistic goal?

As part of our vision, we want to reach total enrollment of 2,500 students within the next five years. We are starting a physician's assistant program which should bring some additional students, and we would like to add another graduate program. We hope that the process of lowering tuition helps us in the undergraduate area.

Have you seen enrollment decline in recent years?

We've had 60% more enrollment over the past 10 years, and we've had 10 years of increases. Then we had a decrease in new students this year [the 2011-2012 academic year]. We were down 70 students. So our commitment was to make sure this was the one exception to the trend.

What if the tuition cut does not boost enrollment? What's next?

This all revolves around net income. We can meet our budget targets either by increasing enrollment, increasing net revenue per student, or a combination of both. If neither of those three occur, then we will need to reduce expenses or expand other revenue sources.

Do you foresee your decision to cut tuition sparking a price war with other colleges?

I was at a national meeting with college presidents this January talking about tuition reduction, and a number of presidents talked to me in the meeting and outside of the meeting, saying they are considering lowering tuition.

I would hope schools would start to get their advertised price more in line with what people actually have to pay, but presidents are nervous, boards are nervous. It takes a while because it is such a bold and daring thing to do. Most schools are going to be afraid to do it. Sewanee, University of the South, did it last year and their enrollment went up, and we followed what they did.

Which colleges do you expect will be the first to follow your lead and lower tuition?

Schools like us who are second-tier educational institutions. Not Harvard, not the University of Pennsylvania. Schools that already have high rates of financial aid and are willing to market the price over the discount and change the way they operate.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated the school is hoping to add 2,500 students over five years. It's trying to reach a total enrollment of 2,500 students in five years. 

Cerner Rallies As Jefferies Upgrades To Buy With $87 Target

Shares of health-care IT systems provider Cerner (CERN) are trading higher after Jefferies & Co. analyst Richard Close upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, keeping his $87 target price, asserting that after a recent 20% pullback, the stock is “too attractive to pass up.”

He says that given “an improving purchasing environment,” the sell-off is overdone. “CERN is one of the best positioned to benefit from the stimulus,” he added, noting that the stock trading at a 10% discount to its historical average P/E.

CERN today is up $3.23, or 4.4%, to $76.78.

Friday, August 31, 2012

Nvidia: Nomura Ups to Buy; Likely Beat on FYQ1

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are up 22 cents, almost 2%, at $12.48 after Nomura Equity Research’s Romit Shah raised his rating on the stock to Buy from Neutral, while maintaining his $16 price target, writing “enough is enough,” that the stock has an enviable 20% free cash flow yield based on its enterprise value, and trades at just one times sales, the same level where it bottomed in 2010.

“The market is not assigning any value to Tegra, in our view,” writes Shah, “considering $5 in net cash, Intel royalties ($1.00) and a graphics business that is conservatively worth $7-8 per share.”

The company’s fiscal Q1 results, to be reported Friday, will likely beat the consensus 9 cents a share in profit by a penny, Shah writes, on $915 million in revenue, just below the average $916 million estimate.

Shah sees 75 cents a share in profit this year, above the average 67 cents estimate, driven by share gains against Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in graphics chips, as the company wins business at Apple (AAPL) and “other mainstream desktop and notebook platforms.”

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ORCL: ‘I Don’t Care If x86 Goes To Zero,’ Says Ellison

Following a report of better-than-expected fiscal Q1 profit this afternoon, Oracle (ORCL) held a conference call with analysts during which it projected fiscal Q2 revenue below expectations, but profit slightly above consensus.

Oracle sees revenue growth in a range of 4% to 8%, year over year, which would equal $8.99 billion to $9.34 billion, and earnings per share in a range of 56 cents to 58 cents.

Analysts have been modeling revenue of $9.36 billion and 56 cents per share in profit.

As with last quarter, the fly in the ointment for revenue growth is the company’s hardware business. Revenue for those products is expected to be flat with last quarter, at best, to down as much as 5% for the quarter, although it also expects another expansion of gross profit margin for the product line.

Oracle shares are up 73 cents, or 3%, at $29.08.

During the Q&A, the first question was about the hardware business. CEO Larry Ellison emphasized that Oracle is unconcerned about lackluster results in selling servers based on Intel’s (INTC) chip technology, which is the “low-end” hardware that Oracle says has held back growth for the hardware division overall.

“I don’t care if our commodity x86 business goes to zero,” said Ellison. “We have no interest in those things. We don’t make money selling other people’s intellectual property. Sun [Microsystems] sold that stuff and we are phasing it out. We have no interest in that business. We want to meet [chief financial officer] Safra [Catz's] goal, which is getting back to our pre-Sun margins.”

“Sun had a practice of selling x86 servers at very low margins,” Ellison continued, later in the call, when again pressed by analysts to explain.

“And we reward our sales team for selling products with higher margin. So, we don’t reward them for selling x86. But our servers, Sparc and Exaline, are growing, and so are our storage systems [including] Exadata.”

Ellison suggested that next fiscal year, most of the x86 drag will be out of the hardware business and total hardware revenue will start to grow again. He said in the meantime, people should focus on margin and profit improvement in hardware.

Gilead Science: Complera Approval Is Positive, But Quad Remains Main Event

As only the second complete HIV therapy in a once-daily pill to reach the market, approval of Complera should represent something of a milestone. A combination of Gilead Science’s (GILD) Truvada, itself a combination of two drugs, and Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) Edurant, the product follows in the wake of Gilead's $3bn-a-year Atripla.

However, the drug is not expected to become as big a commercial success – consensus data from EvaluatePharma shows sales of $507m by 2016, a figure that masks very different views of Complera’s future. Gilead shares climbed 2.5% on Thursday to $36.09, largely due to a recovery after Wednesday's sector-wide declines as this approval was widely expected - all eyes remain fixed on the impending data from a quad pill that is much morelikely to move the needle.

In the bag

Approval of Complera, previously called Btripla, was widely expected given the green light forEdurant earlier this year, the only new component of the triple combination.

The drug has been priced at a very similar level to Atripla, so the choice between the two will come down to the drugs’ relative attributes. Most believe Atripla will continue to be the first choice.

Five Minutes with Fitz: Should You Buy This Stock Market Dip?

The market's recent 45-day rocket ride was the longest uninterrupted climb without a triple digit decline since 2006 - until Tuesday when the Dow lost 203 points.

The sell-off begs the question: Should you buy the stock market dip?

First things first. The sky isn't falling even though there are a lot of investors who believe the worst after two tough days on Monday and Tuesday.

In fact, if you remember your recent history, we used to eat declines like these for breakfast. Two-hundred-point days were not uncommon. For that matter, neither were 400-point swings only a few years ago.

What investors need to realize is this: The stock market has come a long way in a hurry since establishing panic-driven lows on March 6, 2009.

The S&P 500, for example, has tacked more than 100%. Compared to those gains, Monday and Tuesday's losses are just rounding errors in the big scheme of things.

This means a portfolio worth $500,000 would be worth $1,000,000 today if it had been invested in something as plain vanilla as an S&P 500 Index fund only three years ago.

On that basis alone, I could make the case this is the pullback everybody has been waiting for.

But that's the problem...everybody is waiting on the same thing.

Waiting for a Stock Market Dip

According to various reports, most investors remain on the sidelines for reasons that are as obvious as they are self-evident - worries about debt, politics, jobs and the future dominate nearly every poll.

You can see that if you look at stock market volume.

It's down 50% since the financial crisis began. According to CNBC data, last Friday a mere 3.2 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. Three years ago, that figure was 7.5 billion on an average day.

This complicates technical analysis because it limits the statistical validity of many analytics that might otherwise be functioning normally.

So what's a technical trader to do?...

The same thing they would normally do: Look to the past in an attempt to identify distinct patterns that have high odds of repeating themselves in the future.

The key in today's markets is the time frame.

In an attempt to discern what's happening when the markets go south, most traders begin turning to smaller chunks of data dropping from daily charts into bars of 1 hour, 30 minutes, 15 minutes, or even tick-level data.

What you actually want to do is go to a bigger time frame like weekly charts. That helps you get rid of the noise and see the forest for the proverbial trees.

Let's take the S&P 500 as an example.

If you change the S&P's chart from a daily to a weekly as I've suggested, you can see some pretty nice similarities between the upside move that began in July 2009 and the run that's underway now.

There's a rally that took us higher into April of 2010 and a summer correction that returned us to July troughs. Technicians refer to this as a cyclical bull market within a secular bull market.

Here's where it gets interesting.


Figure 1: Source: Fitz-Gerald Research Analytics, Money Map Press

If you look at the chart carefully, you see there are also a few squiggles over that time frame - pullbacks for lack of a better term - that ultimately led to more upside.

This is what pros are referring to when they encourage buying "dips."

I think the odds are good that we're smack in the middle of just such another squiggle and that investors should be buying the dips even if a few days of selling pressure do persist.

Heck, especially if we have more selling - because it suggests we could see another 10-15% on the upside.

Fundamentally, this makes sense for four reasons:

Four Reasons to be Long the Stock Market

  • Generally speaking, most of the big "glocals" we favor are flush with cash, running leaner than they have been in years and have built up the defenses necessary to weather a downturn without undue impact on earnings.

  • This is the cheapest 52-week "peak" in terms of PE ratios we've seen since 1989. And there've been 34 of them according to Bloomberg so this is not inconsequential. History shows shrinking price/earnings ratios generally provide a margin of safety to the upside.

  • Corporate profits are predicted to reach record levels through 2013 so there's potentially another 12 months of runway; to be fair I think it's actually about eight because I believe profits will contract a bit faster than other analysts.

  • Team Bernanke and his central banker buddies are in pom-pom mode. Further stimulus is not only likely, but highly probable. This is absolutely wrong, but probably good for overall prices moving higher since cheap capital is like drugs for the addicts. Ultimately, we will have to pay, but that's a subject for another time.

  • What if I'm wrong?

    That's part of the game. There are no guarantees.

    Nobody knows the future, which is why I also encourage the use of trailing stops to help protect capital and capture gains.

    Not only do trailing stops remove the emotional turmoil of tough days, but having them in place allows you to concentrate on the upside - even when everyone else is concentrating on the downside.

    Even that, though, is a bullish sign.

    When it's easier to scare the hell out of people than it is to attract them to the markets, the smart money nearly always goes long.

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      Five Ways to Make 2012 Your Best Year Ever
    • Money Morning:
      The Markets or the Mattress: I Know Where My Money is Going
    • Money Morning:
      Why China's "Blindside" Could Be A Great Buying Opportunity

    Trader Targets Volatility in Ivanhoe

    By Chris McKhann

    Option selling has abounded as the volatility has leaked out of the market, and we see another example in Ivanhoe Mines (IVN).

    IVN closed yesterday at $15.30, up 0.92 percent on the session. The stock's volatility has risen as its price gapped higher on Monday, lost most of that gain Tuesday, and then yesterday rebounded off losses that had taken shares back to Friday's close.

    At least one trader is trying to take advantage of the increased volatility and option premiums. optionMONSTER's systems show that 10,000 June 15 puts changed hands, with the largest block of 9,300 sold for $0.90. This was against open interest of 790 contracts and total average volume of 4,000 options per day.

    With the shares so close to the strike price, this is really a statement that the trader is willing to buy IVN at that $15 level come the June expiration and that shares are very unlikely to fall below $14.10, which is the break-even point for the trade on the downside.

    The implied volatility of those puts is 55 percent, slightly below the 59 percent average for IVN but well above the 30-day historical reading of 50 percent. This may be trying to take advantage of the increasing implied volatility going into its earnings announcement, which is scheduled for next week.

    (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)

    Choosing Direct Vs. Indirect Hedging

    By Chris McKhann

    Diversification has long been touted as the best tool to manage risk, and it can be in some respects. But it can be very disappointing to find that in times of crisis your "diversified" assets have a correlation of 1--which means that they will all go down together. It is for just that reason that direct hedging can often be the best approach.

    Correlations between stocks and indexes are near an all-time high, as they often are in difficult economic times. So you are better off owning indexes than individual stock picking for the time being (though that can change quickly, as David notes in his column).

    That poses an equally difficult problem in hedging because traditional safety plays such as gold or bonds can move in the same direction as equities at the very times you most want them not to.

    This is why the VIX has been described as the best hedge. The inverse correlation with the S&P 500 is very high, as much as 85 percent by some measures, and gets even higher when the market sells off. That means the VIX spikes when the market tanks.

    Unfortunately, one cannot buy the VIX itself, something that would make our investing lives much easier. And the tradable VIX-related products--futures, options, and exchange-traded funds and notes--are not ideal hedges, and their complexities make them truly useful to a limited few. Even though they too have a very high inverse correlation to the SPX, their various costs make implementation and strategy selection near impossible.

    So we return to equity options. If you own a concentrated position in one stock, a basket of stocks, or an ETF, the most direct hedge is simply to buy puts in those assets. That way you can be that you are insuring exactly what you want to.

    Such put protection is guaranteed to kick in at a certain point if those assets fall far enough, as the premiums for these options rise when their underlying tanks. This occurs both because of the move in the underlying's price and the increase in volatility, which benefits long options. (See our Education section)

    Like any insurance, of course, there is a cost involved. That is the biggest issue in buying puts as a direct hedge. But you do get to choose your premium, your deductible, and the term of your insurance. This means that, unlike your car or life insurance, you can have a much better idea of the relative cost of this protection if you understand the volatility data.

    The problem is that that relative cost is usually pretty high and can significantly cut into your portfolio's performance. That's why traders turn to put spreads, out-of-the-money calendar spreads, or other instruments aimed at reducing the cost of the protective position.

    The problem with these strategies is that we are back in the land of questionable correlation. Some of these strategies will cap potential gains in the case of a selloff, limiting the hedge to a certain range. Others are making bets on relative moves or on the timing of those moves.

    There is no reward without risk. But good option traders focus on the risks that they want to take--and avoid the ones they don't.

    The 7 Highest Yielding Stocks With Real Dividends

    We spend a lot of time sorting through dividend stocks to build lists that meet our investment criteria. Many data sources will display stocks with unbelievable yields, and after double checking their facts, we find that the company has either cut its dividend, the stock was recently sold off or the yield calculation is wrong. Today, we've found the real high yield stocks that are actually paying the stated dividend.

    To make the cut, each of these stocks had to have a stable annual dividend, a positive return over the last year and be trading at $5 per share or more. We left Cypress Sharpridge Investments (CYS), Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (ANH) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) off the list because they have cut the most recent dividend distributions. We found seven stocks in our screen that have dividend yields over 12%.

    ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR)

    ARMOUR has a dividend yield of 19.9%, and pays dividends monthly. Although they cut their dividend in the fall of 2011, they have maintained their dividend for 5 consecutive months, and it appears to be stable at current levels. ARMOUR invests mostly in residential mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mack or Ginnie Mae.

    Two Harbors Investment Corp (TWO)

    Two Harbors started paying dividends in 2010 and raised their dividend to $1.60 per share in 2011. So far, it looks like they will be keeping their dividend the same for 2012, which gives them a 16.1% dividend yield. Two Harbors invests in residential mortgage backed securities and other financial assets that make up 5-10% of their portfolio.

    Whiting USA Trust (WHX)

    Whiting USA Trust has raised its dividend each year since 2009 and currently has a yield of 15.6%. Whiting USA Trust is a trust that was formed by the Whiting Petroleum Corporation to hold an interest in underlying oil and natural gas properties located in the US. The NPI is the only asset of the trust and entitles the trust to receive 90% of the proceeds of production sales from underlying properties.

    Arlington Asset Investment (AI)

    Arlington Asset Investment Corp started paying dividends in 2010 and has been increasing their dividend just about every other quarter. They currently have a 14.2% dividend yield. AI is a investment firm that invests in mortgage-related assets. AI acquires mortgage backed securities that are issued by both government agencies and private companies.

    Capstead Mortgage REIT (CMO)

    Capstead's quarterly dividends are not predictable distributions. Over the last three years, they range from $.26 per share to $.58 per share. CMO increased their dividend in 2011 after cutting it in 2010, and currently has a dividend yield of 13.10%. Capstead invests in residential pass through securities that are mostly adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). These ARMs are guaranteed by government agencies.

    New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)

    New York Mortgage Trust has been paying dividends since 2008 and has a 3 year dividend growth rate of 43%. Their dividend yield is 14.1%. NYMT is a REIT whose name is self-explanatory. They are a self advised REIT that invests in mortgage backed securities, prime adjustable rate mortgage loans and commercial mortgage backed securities. In 2009 they changed their strategy to start moving away from ARMs to diversify their portfolio.

    Full Circle Capital (FULL)

    Full has a dividend yield of 12.3% and pays dividends monthly. They cut their monthly distribution in 2011, but have maintained their current dividend for 6 months. Full Circle Capital Corp is a non-diversified investment company that strives to create income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments. Their investments are made to a diverse range of companies in lower to mid markets.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    NVDA, INTC: Fun New Tricks with Virtualization, Parallelism

    In case you missed it, there have been some interesting technical assessments put out about Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA) in the last 24 to 48 hours.

    Patrick Moorhead, who worked for years at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and runs Moor Insights & Strategy, has been consulting with Nvidia of late.

    Yesterday he offered up his assessment of Nvidia’s announcement of “VGX,” a technology that is meant to “virtualize” the use of “graphics processing units,” or “GPUs.” The technology is made possible by Nvidia’s introduction recently of a new line of GPUs, called “Kepler.”

    Chip makers such as Intel (INTC) have made changes to microprocessors to support virtualization at a chip level, but Nvidia says its VGX is the first effort for graphics chips, specifically.

    Moorhead writes that the chip technology will make it more feasible to have virtual desktops, where compute activity happens largely on the server while the client device is getting rapid updates of its user interface. He thinks this will be a significant advance in “cloud computing”:

    Currently, GPUs cannot be shared in the cloud by different users. This has led to massive scalability issues for cloud gaming and virtualizing high end applications for designers and power users. NVIDIA�s Kepler is the world�s first GPU that can be virtualized in hardware, or shared, by many users in the cloud. Service providers can then install a few high-end NVIDIA Kepler-based VGX cards into servers and serve multiple users and application instances. VMware�s Hypervisors and Citrix XenDesktop will both be supporting NVIDIA�s VGX architecture.

    See the link above to read the entire white paper.

    In another note, Tom Halfhill, an editor with Microprocessor Report, wrote this week that Intel has made an interesting new offer to those trying to program across the multiple CPU “cores” of today’s microprocessors.

    A project named “River Trail,” developed in Intel Labs, uses the Javascript programming language — actually, extensions to Javascript that Intel wrote — which masks all of the hardware details from the programmer.

    It is a “refreshingly different approach” to parallel programming, writes Halfhill, that “makes parallel programming easy enough for almost anyone.”

    “The technology can accelerate any task that benefits from data parallelism,” writes Halfhill. “The more inherent parallelism in a program, the greater the speedup.”

    Halfhill even gives an example of his own tinkering:

    Intel�s API draft specification includes some example method calls, but MPR judged them a little too simplistic to be fully illustrative, so we wrote a few of our own. The following example uses the ParallelArray map method to create a multiply-add (madd) function that operates on every array element. It assumes the program has already created a 10-element ParallelArray named pa1 containing the numbers 1 through 10:

    var pa2 = pa1.map(function madd(x){

    return x*2+x;

    });


    The function returns the sum and stores it as the corresponding element in the new array, pa2. After this method call, the pa2 array contains the following elements:�

    3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30

    For the skeptics out there, Halfhill writes, “our example isn�t mere pseudocode�it�s real executable code. River Trail actually does hide the nitty-gritty details of vector arithmetic, multithreading, and multiprocessing from Javascript programmers.”

    Halfhill’s article is available only to subscribers to Microprocessor Report.

    Thursday, August 30, 2012

    U.S. stocks close higher ahead of Fed decision

    MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

    Major indexes close higher as central bankers address policy at a gathering that could yield further moves to stimulate the economy. See full story.

    Gold ends lower as safe-haven bids dwindle

    Gold futures lose steam on Tuesday, off 0.2% on the wake of a relatively well-received Spanish bond auction. See full story.

    Oil ends higher on optimism about Spain, data

    Crude-oil futures advance Tuesday, erasing recent losses as the Spanish government managed to sell more than expected at a debt auction and most markets pushed higher ahead of word from the Fed. See full story.

    Adobe, Jabil down after hours following outlooks

    Shares of software maker Adobe and electronics contract manufacturer Jabil each fall late Tuesday after the companies issue weaker-than-expected financial forecasts. See full story.

    Pandora pressured by new Spotify service

    Online radio provider facing more competition with rival�s free, mobile service, but analyst sees Pandora holding its ground. See full story.

    MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

    After 15 years in New York City covering Wall Street, David Weidner is leaving. He leaves 15 observations on the industry he�s hated to love and loved to hate. See full story.

    MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

    When it comes to IRAs, timing is everything. Robert Powell looks at five rules that could derail your retirement-savings plans. See full story.

    Bypass the ‘Bear’ Trap

    In the midst of every major correction, experienced traders always look for telling signs of possible bottoms — events that signal pivot points for the market. One such development is the sale of the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) to Federated Funds (FII).

    When Wall Street’s most vocal short-sale mutual fund manager, David Tice, decides it’s time to sell assets tied to the bearish case for stocks, one has to wonder whether he sees the easy downside money already made and the landscape for shorting stocks more difficult down the road after such a sharp pullback in the major averages.

    Just as venture capital firms Fortress Capital and Blackstone (BX) went public last year right before the market topped out, let’s hope this sale of the Prudent Bear Fund will prove to be a contrarian indicator that signals a true bottom.

    STOP BUYING STOCKS … FOR NOW, ANYWAY

    I’ll tell you how you’re not going to make money in this market, and that’s by buying stocks.

    I say this as a professional trader with almost 25 years’ experience in the game, and a swing trader at heart. Nothing makes me happier than putting on a quick trade and banking big gains in the space of a couple of weeks. Moving from one position to the next, riding on the success of your last great trade, is exhilarating and, let’s face it, downright addicting.

    But in today’s market, it’s impossible to even go on vacation for a couple of days without coming back to find your positions in the red — you’ve got to be on top of your trading account even when the rest of your family is beckoning from the beach.

    But if you play your cards right, you can afford to take another vacation to make up for the one you had to spend the whole time behind your laptop!

    HERE ARE YOUR CHOICES

    There are two things you can do to thrive in today’s market:

    1. You can stay in the big names that are paying regular dividends — the companies that might be feeling the pinch from the current market conditions, but the ones that are going to come through it with flying colors.

    2. Or, you can trade options and simply simulate the gains you might normally enjoy from owning stocks but without the long-term time commitment.

    It seems like everyone on Wall Street and certainly in the financial press wants to say that the bottom is here and that it’s time to start picking up stocks on the cheap. But they’ve been calling for the end to the pain for many, many months now and yet we’re still waiting.

    If you’re sitting on the sidelines in cash, you might have saved some dough, but you haven’t really made any, either. That’s no fun. In fact, that shouldn’t even be a consideration when there are so many ways you can be padding your trading account with fat profits … if you only know where to look.

    FOLLOW THE MONEY FLOW

    Forget the markets, the economic reports and the people on TV who get paid to make predictions that invariably never come to pass.

    This summer’s trading action has felt like death by a thousand cuts. The markets are slowly, and painfully, grinding higher — only to be set back by fear, malaise or the wind blowing in the wrong direction, it seems.

    If I can teach you anything today, it’s that you should become a student of sector rotation. That is, there’s still plenty of money flowing in the markets, and while it’s leaving the troubled industries like housing and the financials, it’s still there and it’s pouring into high-demand areas like commodities and healthcare.

    I do this in my Tactical Trader trading service, and you can do it, too. Simply start by cherry-picking the top-performing sectors, and then take a look at the companies that are doing well — your mission is to find the best of the best names, and to buy call options on them.

    So, where do you start? …

    BUILD YOUR OWN ETF

    Sure, you can buy Exchange-Traded Funds, which represent a group of stocks in a particular sector. You can even buy ETF options. But I encourage you to look very carefully at the specific names within an ETF, and how they are weighted. Some components might be doing well, but if there’s a big loser on the list, it’s going to drag down your trade.

    I like to simulate owning an ETF simply by casting a net over the top three to five names. My criteria are simple: I want to see big-volume trading in companies that had a stellar last quarter (i.e., they beat estimates, raised forward guidance and maintained/raised their dividend, if they have one), and are confident that they can up the good work.

    Even better for us, it’s earnings season, so the time is now to get a clear picture of how they did during some very tough months and how they’re planning to do, three months from now.

    PICK GOOD STORY STOCKS, BUT AVOID THE FAIRYTALES

    For the most part, companies try to be forthcoming with where they see their businesses heading in the coming quarters. Remember, Wall Street is also making its own bets on their performance, so even if a company has a spectacular quarter but it falls short of analysts’ estimates by a penny or two, it can sink the stock.

    So, sure, a company can make any old projections that it wants to (case in point, many of the banks that still haven’t fully reported how big their losses and subsequent write-downs will be). But for the most part, if a company says it’s going to do well — barring any major disasters, of course — chances are, it will or, at least come very close.

    SEPARATING THE WHEAT FROM THE CHAFF

    The best part of doing your homework and picking the names with the best potential — other than making money on your own terms, in the time frame you designate because that’s what options trading is all about — is that, if any of them don’t live up to your expectations, you can cut them loose. Plain and simple.

    So, if you’re holding on to some winning names and you bank profits in them … and maybe even go back to the well a couple more times because there’s nothing wrong with going back and betting on your winning horses … keep in mind that they might be names you want to own.

    Buying call options gives you the right to buy stock at the option’s strike price. And that’s why I like to buy deep in-the-money calls. If you’re riding a stock and it shoots up 10 or 20 points while you’re in your options trade, you can exercise your right to own the stock at any time during the life of your options contract � at the price you agreed to pay (the strike, or exercise price).

    However, it’s no secret that stocks oftentimes pause on their way up, or even retrace their steps a bit. If you see the stock running up, up up and then it either stands still or pulls back, that’s a good time to cash out of your option trade. Enjoy the profits and hold on to your original investment dollars to get back on the horse again.

    GO ‘BACK’ TO YOUR BEST PICKS, AGAIN AND AGAIN

    Stocks don’t just shoot up in a straight line — they do what’s called backing-and-filling, which basically means they build support areas from which they can take off and run to new highs. These temporary dips are great for picking up your favorite names at decent prices before the ride takes off again.

    Sure, you might have missed out on some great trades if you were trying to avoid being caught in the “bear” trap that the overall market has turned into. But there are plenty of profits out there for you to capture. So, start looking at earnings reports, trading volume, money flow and performance expectations to pick out some stars of your own to add to your portfolio today!

    Sparton Q2 Results Power Past Siemens Medical Speed Bump

    Sparton Corporation (NYSE: SPA), a $218MM LTM revenue company that designs, develops and manufactures complex electronic and electromechanical products and subassemblies (and provides related services) for the Medical, Military & Aerospace, and Industrial & Instrumentation markets, just announced strong Q2 FYE June 2012 results. These results, highlighted by 20% growth in revenues, (up 14% net of this past year's acquisition of Byers Peak) show Sparton has mostly overcome the speed bump in its growth path from reduced sales to one of its large medical customers, Siemens Medical (SI), stemming from Siemens' move to reduce supply risks by adding another company to join Sparton in its manufacturing chain.

    Sparton's renewed organic sales growth further confirms Sparton's repositioning to sustained profitability by an outstanding turnaround team that has already proven itself capable of making tough cuts when, and if, necessary, as well as investments in both R&D and business development. Sparton's accretive acquisitions of Byers Peak and the larger August 2010 purchase of Delphi Medical Systems, meaningfully expanding Sparton's medical device manufacturing into the therapeutic device sub-market, additionally position the company for both growth and higher margins in the future.

    At February 9, 2012's closing price of $8.60/share, Sparton's $86.5MM market valuation remains around 1.1X book with almost $29MM of net cash at 12/31/12 equal to roughly 1/3 of that market value. While sustainably profitable and growing again, Sparton remains in a valuation catch-22, lacking meaningful analyst coverage (only Sidoti formally covering and B Riley informally commenting) and the trading liquidity and expanded price multiples that such coverage generates. Through the end of January 2012, Sparton has executed on a stock buyback plan announced in August 2011, repurchasing and retiring 338,000 shares for around $2.7MM.

    Sparton's current $57.6MM enterprise value ($86.5MM market cap less $28.9MM net cash) is now around 4.2X LTM operating EBITDA of $13.6 (ex impairment charge, property sales gains, etc.) and a low 0.26X LTM revenues of $218.5MM. Note, this revenue rate is already supported by $126.5MM of contracted backlog at December 31, 2011.

    Outstanding December Q2 Operating Performance And Substantial Y/Y Improvement

    As discussed in Sparton's December 2011 Q2 earnings press release, in addition to the sales growth discussed above, Sparton grew gross profit by almost 16% and adjusted EBITDA 65% from prior year's quarter. For Q2, Sparton reported net earnings of $0.19/share that included a very small gain on the sale of a long-held investment in a private company offset by an even smaller restructuring charge vs. $0.14/share in December 2010 quarter that did not have a full GAAP tax charge. Taking out non-recurring net benefits, (see page 5 of Sparton's recent Q2 FY'12 earnings call slide show) from each year's period, Sparton would have reported $0.18/share pro-forma EPS for this recent December Q2, 80% higher than a fully-taxed $0.10/share in the prior year's December quarter. Thus, earnings not only grew this quarter, but the growth rate accelerated over prior quarters'.

    Three Segments, Defense & Security, Medical, And Complex Systems With Differing Margins

    Sparton Corp. is currently segmented into three business units: Defense & Security Systems ("DSS"), Medical Devices, and Complex Systems (formerly Electronics Manufacturing Services "EMS") with substantially differing gross margins. Sparton also recently launched a new fourth business unit, Navigation & Exploration, commercializing some of Sparton's defense technology in digital compasses and hydrophones into new products for oil & gas exploration, sea floor mapping and port security applications. For now, this start-up NavEx unit remains within the DSS segment results.

    As illustrated in slides 6-8 of Sparton's recent Q2 FY'12 earnings call slide show, Sparton achieved gross margins in each of its segments at or near its guided target ranges for FYE June 2012 as follows (actual December Q2 margins in parenthesis): DSS: 20%-25% (19%), Medical 13%-16% (14%), and Complex Systems 7%-10% (10%).

    Sparton Continues Positioning For Growth And At Higher Margins
    Sparton is moving from a successful turnaround into a growth story with a stated vision as follows:

    become a $500 million enterprise by fiscal 2015 by attaining key market positions in our primary lines of business and through complementary and compatible acquisitions; and will consistently rank in the top half of our peer group in return on shareholder equity and return on net assets.

    Management's vision of higher revenues at higher rates of returns involve transitioning Sparton from a traditionally defined 'contract manufacturer' to a higher margin full service developer, designer, and manufacturer of complex & sophisticated electromechanical devices. This transition is being achieved by a combination of generating profitable organic growth, making complementary and compatible acquisitions, and fixing or divesting underperforming lines of business. Slides 12 and 13 of Sparton's June Q4 FY'11 earnings call slide show are quite helpful to understanding Sparton's three prongs to achieve the growth targeted by management's ambitious vision above.

    Profitable Organic Medical Segment Growth Has Overcome Siemens Move To Dual Sourcing

    Over the last few years, Sparton has made meaningful new investments in sales & marketing and research & development to engage new customers as well as enhancing relationships with key existing customers that have included - in the Medical segment: Siemens Medical, Fenwal, and NuVasive (NUVA), in the DSS segment: the US Navy, Northrop Grumman (NOC) and BAE Systems, and in the Complex Systems segment: Goodrich (GR), Raytheon (RTN), and Parker Hannifin (PH). Sparton recently launched Navigation & Exploration unit, commercializing some of Sparton's defense technology in digital compasses and hydrophones into new products for oil & gas exploration, sea floor mapping and port security applications has not disclosed any large customer names yet.

    In Sparton's June Q4 and FY'11 press release, the company disclosed that it had received notice from its large medical customer, Siemens, of Siemens' plan to reduce its supply risks by adding another company to join Sparton in its manufacturing chain on two programs, which annually generated $28MM of Siemens' $36MM in total business with Sparton. Sparton continues to sole source other programs of Siemens that are not expected to be dual-sourced due to these product programs' more limited remaining life and the costs to obtain regulatory certification of an additional supplier. At the time, Sparton estimated Siemens' move to dual-source certain programs might negatively impact Sparton's annual sales by between $12MM to 16MM.

    Over the course of the first half of this FYE June 2012, as the reduction in sales to Siemens has ramped in, Sparton has been able to more than offset this segment revenue decline with increased sales to other medical customers. This is best illustrated by the table in slide 11 of Sparton's recent Q2 FY'12 earnings call slide show showing other medical segment sales rising by $10.3MM from the 2nd half of FY'11 to the 1st half of this FY'12, while Siemens sales on its dual-sourced programs dropped by $7.9MM. Sparton's introductory script of its Q2 conference call gave guidance that Sparton expects this $7.9MM pace to only decline further to around $4.5-$5.5MM in the 2nd half of FY'12 and that it "will be fully offset by increased sales with existing customer programs coupled with new business awards."

    Other Profitable Organic Growth Opportunities

    During the recent December Q2 FY 12 earnings conference call question & answer session, Sparton management not only highlighted a continuation of expected growth in the Medical segment but across all segments. This not only included Complex Systems, where Sparton is having success with its new prototyping service offerings, but also included the DSS segment, despite overall US defense spending cutbacks.

    In particular, in Sparton's introductory script of its Q2 conference call, management highlighted potential Defense Department increases in that "Congress appropriated $95 million, an 8% increase from the prior year's budget, for the line-item where sonobuoy product purchases are covered." Increased Foreign sonobuoy sales at higher margins are also expected. Also, Sparton and its sonobuoy joint venture, ERAPSCO, has received substantial defense-related research & development contracts toward new sonobuoy designs and applications to assist a new high altitude anti-submarine warfare (HAASW) mission, equipping Boeing's (BA) new P-8 Poseidon jet including a September 2011 $8.9MM subcontract to modify existing sonobuoy models. Finally, according to slide 10 of Sparton's recent Q2 FY'12 earnings call slide show, the company expects, in the March or June quarter, contracts for the SSQ-101 ADAR sonobuoy and the new SSQ-125 sonobuoy. (See also my article entitled, "Sparton: Ready to Cash In on the Naval Arms Race".)

    Making Complementary And Compatible Acquisitions

    In addition to Sparton's plan to improve the Medical segment's market share within the in-vitro diagnostics market through geographic expansion and new & increased vertical offerings, the company's Medical segment has moved into the therapeutic device market, specifically targeting Cardiology, Orthopedic, and Surgical segments via the two highly accretive acquisitions of Delphi Medical and Byers Peak, mentioned, above. These acquisitions provided not only a new and diversified customer base but also expanded Sparton's geographic reach into the western US. (For greater detail on the Delphi acquisition, see my article entitled, "Sparton: Delphi Medical Acquisition Should Be Highly Accretive".) While the Byers Peak acquisition closed in March 2011, it wasn't until the end of November 2011, 2/3rds into this most recent quarter, that manufacturing consolidation into Delphi's Frederick, Colorado facility was completed. Thus, additional margin benefits may still result from this successful acquisition.

    From several answers given on the recent December Q2 FY 12 earnings conference call, it is clear that larger synergistic acquisitions are a main focus of management.

    Fixing Or Divesting Underperforming Lines Of Business As discussed more fully in my November 8, 2011 article entitled "Sparton Corp.: Strong Q4 Operating Results Bode Well For Q1", after my firm, Lawndale Capital Management, launched a proxy fight in 2008 that successfully resulted in board and management changes, Sparton removed huge costs from its operations, while jettisoning unprofitable contracts, and shuttering grossly under-utilized and inefficient manufacturing capacity over the past few years. For example, in Sparton's Complex Systems (formerly EMS) segment, these improvements continued into FY June 2011 with gross margins rising from only 4% in FY'10 to 10% in FY'11, where this improved gross margin has remained in FY'12's first half as well. During the recent December Q2 FY 12 earnings conference call question & answer session, management confirmed that some legacy contracts remain not optimally priced and would be improved upon as contracts roll over. In addition, on the call, in response to one of my questions regarding DSS segment sonobuoy quality improvement costs, management said that recent increased costs peaked in the most recent December quarter and, in addition to these on-going costs declining, and they should pay off in the future with fewer rejected lots and less rework expense.

    In Conclusion
    With the bump in the road from diminished sales to Siemens now quickly overcome, and further organic growth and margin improvements on the horizon for Sparton, the current market valuation of SPA shares is a compelling risk/reward investment opportunity worth researching further. Future planned acquisitions and investments in R&D and business development make the opportunity even more compelling.

    Disclosure: I am long SPA.