Saturday, March 2, 2013

Will PepsiCo Help You Retire Rich?

Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.

Many investors think of PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP  ) simply as the also-ran in the cola wars. But even though its identity focuses on its namesake beverage, PepsiCo has huge strength in its snack business, where it dominates the competition with a highly efficient worldwide distribution network. Can PepsiCo finally rise above its cola rival to demonstrate its advantages? Let's revisit how PepsiCo does on our 10-point scale.

The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.

Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.

When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:

  • Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
  • Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
  • Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
  • Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at PepsiCo.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Size

Market cap > $10 billion

$117 billion

Pass

Consistency

Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of five past years

3 years

Fail

Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years

5 years

Pass

Stock stability

Beta < 0.9

0.47

Pass

Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20%

(26%)

Fail

Valuation

Normalized P/E < 18

22.42

Fail

Dividends

Current yield > 2%

2.8%

Pass

5-year dividend growth > 10%

8.3%

Fail

Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years

41 years

Pass

Payout ratio < 75%

53.5%

Pass

Total score

6 out of 10

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.

Since we looked at PepsiCo last year, the company has fallen by three full points, as a decline in revenue, higher valuations, and a slowdown in dividend growth cost the company on the score front. But the stock has done quite well, rising about 20% over the past year.

Despite the constant comparisons to Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) , PepsiCo has staked out a different core business model, with big success. Rather than simply relying on beverages as Coke does, PepsiCo's entire aim is to capitalize on the fact that consumers tend to buy snacks and drinks together. By offering both, PepsiCo maximizes its revenue, while Coke leaves the potential snack sales on the table -- often for Pepsi's Frito-Lay to grab.

But lately, Pepsi has had to deal with the threat of rising anti-obesity sentiment. Soda sales have declined in the U.S., in part because of concerns about sugar and calorie content, and even as Pepsi has shifted toward alternate beverages, the impact on the company's growth has been considerable. Even emerging-market sales haven't been able to soften the blow entirely for Pepsi, as Coke has fought it around the world in search of higher-growth areas.

So far, though, Pepsi has resisted pressure to break itself into two separate companies. Despite the recent move from Kraft Foods to free its Mondelez snack business, Pepsi's unified approach to snack and beverage sales arguably requires a close relationship in order for it to work.

For retirees and other conservative investors, the fact that PepsiCo's dividend growth has slowed recently even as its shares have gotten more expensive isn't the best of news. Even with more than 40 years of rising dividend payouts, PepsiCo would be a better buy for a retirement portfolio at a slightly cheaper price -- especially as it continues to work through the challenges of the current economic environment.

Keep searching
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.

Find out more about PepsiCo and its growth potential by reading our premium research report on the beverage and snack giant. Inside, Fool contributor and consumer-goods analyst Nicole Seghetti questions whether the soda business is fizzing up or fizzling out at PepsiCo and guides you through everything you need to know about the company, including the key opportunities and threats facing the company's future. Simply click here now to claim your copy today.

Add PepsiCo to My Watchlist, which will aggregate our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Top Stocks To Buy For 2/11/2013-3

Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:NUS) achieved its new 52 week high price of $49.96 where it was opened at $47.98 no change for the day by closing at $49.58. NUS transacted shares during the day were over 1.17 shares however it has an average volume of 875,112 shares.

NUS has a market capitalization $3.09 billion and an enterprise value at $2.92 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 1.87 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 5.89. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 8.08% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 14.68%.

The company made a return on asset of 17.73% in past twelve months and return on equity of 28.44% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $1.61 billion gaining $25.92 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 9.30% holding 28.70% quarterly earnings growth.

According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $233.40 million cash in hand making cash per share at 3.74. The total of $146.26 million debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 28.78. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 2.38 and book value per share was 8.19.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 8.52% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price of $43.35 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price of $38.63.

NUS holds 62.40 million outstanding shares with 54.25 million floating shares where insider possessed 12.34% and institutions kept 84.90%.

4 Surprising Nations That Minted 6 New Forbes Billionaires


In March, Forbes will release its next billionaires list, a compendium of everyone who has at least nine zeroes in the accounting of their personal wealth. While there are still a few months before the big day, the magazine has started letting details trickle out about the newest additions to the list. As I reported earlier, one interesting aspect about these nouveau ultra-riche is the number of them who made their fortunes in fashion. Equally fascinating, however, is where some of the new billionaires hail from.

Admittedly, most of the list comes from three pretty unsurprising places: China, America, and Western Europe. The biggest new contributors are Italy, with five freshly minted billionaires this year, and China and the Netherlands, both of which have four. All told, Europe accounts for 22 of the 35 new inductees.

The big surprise, though, may be the six new billionaires from countries that you might not think of as particularly wealthy.

A Peek at Forbes' Billionaires List -- And Bright News for Developing Countries
  • Mori Arkin
  • Zadik Bino
  • Rufino Vigil Gonzalez
  • Desmond Sacco
  • Stephen Saad
  • Isabel Dos Santos
  • More from DailyFinance:


Bruce Watson is a senior features writer for DailyFinance. You can reach him by e-mail at bruce.watson@teamaol.com, or follow him on Twitter at @bruce1971.

The 25 Best Public Companies in America

The following video is from Thursday's MarketFoolery�podcast, in which host Chris Hill, as well as analysts Jason Moser, Brian Richards, and Matt Argersinger discuss the top business and investing stories of the day.

Motley Fool Managing Editor Brian Richards sheds some light on The Motley Fool's recent report on the 25 best companies in America, and explains why Cummins (NYSE: CMI  ) , Teradata (NYSE: TDC  ) , and Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL  ) topped our rankings. In this installment of MarketFoolery, we discuss some of the best public companies in America.

The amount of data we store every year is growing by a mind-boggling 60% annually! To make sense of this trend and pick out a winner, The Motley Fool has compiled a new report called, "The Only Stock You Need to Profit From the NEW Technology Revolution." The report highlights a company that has gained 300% since first recommended by Fool analysts, but still has plenty of room left to run. To get instant access to the name of this company transforming the IT industry, click here -- it's free.

The relevant video segment can be found between 10:24 and 15:27.

For the full video of today's MarketFoolery, click here.

Why BGC Partners Shares Jumped

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of wholesale financial brokerage BGC Partners (NASDAQ: BGCP  ) rose as much as 10% after reporting its fourth-quarter results.

So what: For the quarter, BGC Partners reported a 19% increase in revenue to $436.3 million and a 262% increase in GAAP income to $27.4 million. The company's recent real estate acquisitions spurred its rapid bottom line growth, and management noted that volume levels in its financial services industry have begun to rebound in the first quarter. Based on estimates found at Yahoo! Finance, BGC's GAAP EPS actually fell short of Wall Street's expectations, but the company stood pat on its quarterly dividend, keeping it at a robust $0.12 per quarter for an annualized yield of better than 10%.

Now what: With BGC's financial services segment finally showing signs of life, and its real estate acquisitions paying handsome dividends, I'd say that with a single-digit forward P/E, there's still quite a bit of value to be squeezed out of its share price. As long as BGC remains prudent with its acquisition strategy and pays out sustainable dividends, there's no reason it couldn't head higher.

Craving more input? Start by adding BGC Partners to your free and personalized Watchlist so you can keep up on the latest news with the company.�

If you like dividends, you'll love these nine stocks!
If you're interested in some of these dividends on your quest for high-yielding stocks, The Motley Fool has compiled a special free report outlining our nine top dependable dividend-paying stocks. It's called "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks." You can access your copy today at no cost! Just click here to discover the winners we've picked.

Busy Week? Catch Up on Financials Headlines Here

The financials sector is never short on news, but if you're short on time, let me do the leg work for you.�I've dug through The Motley Fool's financial sector coverage over the past week to highlight five stories you don't want to overlook.

Read on for this week's big news.

1.�1 Thing From JPMorgan Investor Day That Surprised Me
John Grgurich had several takeaways from JPMorgan Chase's (NYSE: JPM  ) Investor Day, and�in this piece, he opines on "the depth of talent on the JPMorgan management bench." In addition to the obvious, Jamie Dimon, Grgurich highlights other key members of the executive team -- where they came from and where he thinks they might be going. As any Foolish investor knows, good management can make all the difference for a big company like JPMorgan.

2. The Sequester, and How Not to Solve a Budget Problem
"Federal spending is going to be cut by $1.1 trillion over the next decade, starting [today]. Neither party is happy about it, and almost everyone thinks it's a bad idea."

Morgan Housel outlines the details of the sequester -- which began yesterday, March 1 -- noting the places spending cuts both occur and don't occur ... all the while wondering if we're going about this completely backwards.

3. 3 Banks Bucking the Sell-OffWith the�S&P 500�down nearly 3% in the past week, and the S&P's bank stocks down 3.5%, Motley Fool financials analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson take a look at which banks may be bucking the downward trend this week. You may not be surprised to learn that Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) is on that list.

4.�4 Critical Dates for Bank of America
If you're a Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) investor, put these dates on your calendar. Stress test results and the settlement of some of B of A's legal troubles are two of the things John Maxfield previews for the coming months.

5.�5 Important Charts About Banking
Everyone's favorite financials Fool (or just mine?) John Maxfield is back this week with more awesome charts. If you're a bank investor and you're struggling to understand some of the nuances of their (complicated) businesses, give John a chance to illuminate some things for you. By the time you finish reading, you may have a different impression of how big banks are performing post-financial crisis.

Speaking of performance, Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012. Is there more yet to come? With significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank�(or any bank) before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy, and as an added bonus, you'll receive a full year of FREE updates and expert guidance as key news breaks.

Why Alcoa Is Ready to Rebound

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Alcoa and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Alcoa facts

Headquarters (Founded)

New York (1888)

Market Cap

$9.0 billion

Industry

Aluminum

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$23.7 billion

Management

Chairman/CEO Dr. Klaus-Christian Kleinfeld
CFO Charles McLane Jr.

Return on Equity (Average, Past 3 Years)

2.7%

Cash / Debt

$1.9 billion / $8.8 billion

Dividend Yield

1.4%

Competitors

Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH  )
Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX  )

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 93% of the 3,679 members who have rated Alcoa believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those bulls, NoblyNaive, succinctly summed up the Alcoa bull case for our community:

Aluminum manufacturers as a whole are looking for about a 9% bump in demand, which should impact profits favorably. U.S. commercial aerospace has huge backlog of aluminum planes to pump out and is ramping up production considerably. No hiccup in the recovery will stop this bump in AL demand. This stock price has sunk to the point that under anything better than incompetent management, it can only go up if the economy stays on track for 2013.

Of course, that short pitch doesn't even come close to telling the entire story for Alcoa. You're in luck, though. The Fool's brand-new premium report on Alcoa looks at all sides of one of the most compelling material plays in the market. You can grab your copy here, which comes with free updates for 12 months.

Want to see how well (or not so well) the stocks in this series are performing? Follow the TrackPoisedTo CAPS account.

Top Stocks For 3/2/2013-18

NuEarth Corporation (Pink Sheets:NUEC), a manufacturer and marketer of “Clean & Green” products and technology, has concluded its acquisition of AB Technology, SA of Lokeren, Belgium. (AB Tech). AB Tech is a Northern European provider of “green” biodegradable cleaners and paint strippers. AB Tech’s sales for 2009 were in excess of $4 million.

This merger of NuEarth and AB Tech marks a major milestone in the product offerings now available to their respective clients. Currently, a large number of industries, institutions and public sectors enhance their environments with solutions offered by the two organizations. Bringing them together provides a powerful platform for innovating and supporting the needs of their clients. The combined savings from the synergies will yield $2.1M to the bottom line while the addition product mix will add $7.5M to the top line.

“NuEarth Corporation is the US exclusive distributor of NuSoil; AquaSolv; Dustblock; and Roadbinder. Through this combination NuEarth now will become the exclusive distributor for ABTech’s line of biodegradable cleaners and strippers,” said Alfon Rosalini, Senior Vice President of NuEarth. “The combination will greatly strengthen NuEarth by accelerating the growth strategy and enhancing the brand portfolio of the company. This will clearly be a win for both companies’ customers while significantly enhancing value for all shareholders. We will have a total combined global footprint and the leading service organization in the industry capable of a major expansion to serve the needs of both our existing and future customers.”

Clean Harbors, Inc. (NYSE: CLH), the leading provider of environmental, energy and industrial services and hazardous waste management services throughout North America, will provide a live webcast of its Investor Day on Thursday, September 16, 2010, from approximately 8:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. (EDT).

All interested parties are invited to listen as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Alan S. McKim, Chief Financial Officer James M. Rutledge and four additional members of the executive management team provide an overview of the Company�s businesses, growth strategy and industry outlook through a series of presentations, followed by a question-and-answer session. The live webcast can be accessed in the Investor Relations section of the Company�s website. For those unable to listen to the live presentations, the event will be archived and available on the Company�s website.

Clean Harbors is the leading provider of environmental, energy and industrial services and hazardous waste management services throughout North America. The Company serves more than 50,000 customers, including a majority of the Fortune 500 companies, thousands of smaller private entities and numerous federal, state, provincial and local governmental agencies.

Headquartered in Norwell, Massachusetts, Clean Harbors has more than 175 locations, including over 50 waste management facilities, throughout North America in 36 U.S. states, seven Canadian provinces, Mexico and Puerto Rico. The Company also operates international locations in Bulgaria, China, Sweden, Singapore, Thailand and the United Kingdom.

Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) will launch a new polymer for sheet and injection-molded faceshield applications. Eastman Tritan copolyester is an innovative clear polymer that delivers high-impact strength and chemical resistance to compete with polycarbonate (PC) in faceshield, visor and mask applications for the motorcycle, industrial, sports, medical and military industries.

Eastman Tritan copolyester is available for faceshield applications, marketed within Spartech�s ULTRATUF brand. Spartech ULTRATUF FS sheet made with Tritan is transparent and available in gauges up to 75 mil.

�We are committed to providing value-added solutions to our customers,� said Janet Mann, chief technology officer, Spartech. �With ULTRATUF FS sheet made with Eastman Tritan copolyester, we are able to offer our customers significant property advantages over polycarbonate faceshields, including easy processing and fabrication opportunities, which support our commitment to deliver the highest standards of quality and innovation. ULTRATUF FS sheet further enhances our product portfolio, allowing Spartech to be a full-service provider of thermoplastic sheet and film in the face protection market.�

Eastman Tritan copolyester combines the advantages of traditional copolyester sheet, such as clarity and chemical resistance, with enhanced toughness, heat resistance and ease of coating and fabrication, as the sheet does not require drying. This combination of properties allows manufacturers to meet the growing need for advanced chemical resistance in faceshields while avoiding the crazing, whitening and other side effects related to chemical exposure that can impair vision.

�Chemical resistance specifications are becoming increasingly important, especially in industrial safety and military applications, and any change in the surface of a protective faceshield can impair vision and be considered a material failure,� said Eastman�s Lucian Boldea, business director, Specialty Plastics Business Organization. �Eastman Tritan copolyester satisfies previously unmet needs in industry safety applications by delivering a durable, clear material with excellent chemical resistance.�

How Not to Blow It With Financial Aid

What do last year's bonus, your kids' straight As and the money grandma socked away for their education have in common?

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They can all hurt your chances of landing financial aid.

After handing out lots of free money to families at the height of the recession, colleges are tightening their criteria for aid. They're looking much more closely at the financials parents lay on the table�and it's all too easy to make a misstep that costs your family thousands of dollars a year in assistance. More than ever, you need to know what colleges want to see and how to make yourself look as deserving as possible.

Live Chat Recap
  • Rachel Louise Ensign and finaid.org's Mark Kantrowitz answered reader questions on Sept. 10. Replay the event.

It takes a lot of work to cover all the bases of financial aid. But putting in the effort can save you a heap of money up front�and keep your child from becoming yet another heavily indebted college graduate.

Here's a look at the some of the biggest mistakes families make in the aid process, and the best ways to steer clear of them.

Earning too much at the wrong time.

Many parents wait until late junior year or early senior year to start thinking seriously about college. But by then, you may have blown your best chance to position yourself for the most aid.

Enlarge Image

Close John Kuczala

Why? Your "base income year" is already well under way.

The Free Application for Federal Student Aid, which determines your eligibility for federal help and aid from many schools, is based on your family's tax return for the year before the child enrolls in college. In other words, if your child plans to start college in fall 2013, schools will look at your return for 2012�the base income year.

Many people don't realize this, and don't take any steps to adjust their income, the biggest factor in determining aid. Experts urge families to get an early start and keep their earnings as low as possible during that year.

For instance, take any big windfalls, such as capital gains or the sale of a property, before the Jan. 1 when your child is a high-school junior, says Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of financial-aid website finaid.org. If you own a business, you may want to defer compensation or take a lower annual salary.

"Every $10,000 reduction in income is going to improve your aid eligibility by [about] $3,000" if you have one child in college, says Mr. Kantrowitz. In other words, if you're the sole breadwinner with one kid in college and cut your pay to $100,000 from $150,000, your child will be eligible for about $15,000 more aid annually. (This is a simplified rule of thumb that doesn't apply in all cases, he says.)

Still, you don't want to overdo it. The Internal Revenue Service may come after you for not paying yourself a fair wage, and "the colleges don't like it when someone is rich but appears poor," says Mr. Kantrowitz. They may pull back on their institutional aid if they decide your family doesn't actually need the help.

About 250 mostly private colleges also ask parents to fill out a supplemental form called the CSS/Financial Aid PROFILE for awarding institutional funds.

Letting the wrong family members hold college money.

Not all family members' assets are considered equal by colleges in the standard federal aid formula.

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For one thing, a child's income and assets count heavily against their potential aid. Every dollar a child has in assets�that includes bank accounts or trust funds�cuts their possible award by 20 cents. Every dollar a child makes in income above $6,130 (the limit for 2013-14 aid) cuts their possible award by 50 cents.

Before the base income year starts, parents should transfer the child's assets�that includes any money in checking and savings accounts�into a 529 plan, a tax-advantaged savings account for college, says Mr. Kantrowitz.

Money held in a 529 belonging to a student or custodial parent reduces the student's eligibility for financial aid only up to 5.64%�meaning an account with $10,000 could knock off a maximum of $564 in aid.

But families should be careful about letting relatives other than custodial parents�like grandparents, aunts and uncles�set up 529s for kids. Every dollar a student gets from a 529 plan owned by other relatives is considered income to the student and reduces potential financial aid by 50 cents if the student is above the income threshold, says Mr. Kantrowitz. A $10,000 withdrawal would reduce aid eligibility by up to $5,000.

Making assumptions about what schools will offer.

When figuring out where your child will apply, don't just guess what schools might offer in aid. Colleges make it easy to figure out how much they're likely to give, with net-price calculators on their websites.

You input financial data like your income, assets and family size, and the calculator spits out an estimate of what you'll pay for tuition, fees and room and board, minus any estimated grants or scholarships. They generally don't factor in things like loans or work study.

By using these calculators, some families will find that generous private colleges may cost them less than their in-state public university, says Robert Weinerman, senior director of college finance at consulting firm College Coach and a former financial-aid officer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. That's because the Harvards and Yales of the world give many low-income students a nearly full ride, and many midtier schools give desirable students a lot of money off the sticker price to get them to attend.

Still, there are a number of questions about the accuracy of these estimates; for one thing, some use two-year-old data to make their calculations. That's why it's crucial that your child applies to a "financial-aid safety school," such as a state university, that you'll be able to afford with no aid at all, says Mr. Kantrowitz of finaid.org.

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Close Associated Press

A Duke freshman organized her things last month as she prepared to move into a residence hall on campus.

Thinking merit money is all about grades and SATs.

If you assume your child's good grades guarantee a merit scholarship at a safety school, you may be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Colleges can figure out when top-flight students are using them as safety schools; these kids' grades and SAT scores will be significantly better than those of the average student who enrolls. With less scholarship aid available at most places, some midtier schools are less willing to offer high-performing students merit money if they think it's unlikely they'll enroll, says Alex Bickford, senior manager of college finance at College Coach and a former financial-aid officer at Southern New Hampshire University.

So, if students want the college to try to lure them with merit money, they should visit the campus and show a genuine interest by contacting professors and alumni, he says.

Not applying for all the aid you're eligible for.

In the heat of the application process, some affluent families don't apply for aid because they assume they're not eligible. Nearly 30% of high-income families didn't fill out the FAFSA last academic year, according to a recent Sallie Mae survey.

That's usually a big mistake, says Mr. Bickford, since affluent families may qualify for at least some aid. The typical family earning more than $100,000 received $5,451 in grants and scholarships last academic year, Sallie Mae says. Not filling out the FAFSA can disqualify you from merit-based aid at some schools, says Mr. Kantrowitz.

Upper-income families shouldn't count themselves out for outside scholarships either, says Mr. Kantrowitz. Roughly the same percentage of students with family incomes over $100,000 or more received scholarships from sources outside of the college as did students with family incomes under $50,000: about 10%, he says.

Figuring the "expected family contribution" is all you're paying.

When you actually get your child's acceptance letters in hand, there are plenty more pitfalls to watch out for, such as missing the nuances of the financial-aid offers.

Most schools have their own format for these offers, but one constant is the expected family contribution�a gauge of how much your family can expect to pay each year out of pocket. The catch, which often isn't immediately obvious, is that the expected contribution often isn't all you're paying.

To fill any gap between the expected family contribution and the total cost of attendance, a college may offer your family some "free money" in the form of grants and scholarships. But they may also expect you to take out loans, and have your child contribute money from work-study and summer jobs to meet your need. They may also leave some need unmet.

It's also important to bear this in mind when using net-price calculators on school websites. By law, the calculators must show the net price of the school�what you'll pay after grants and scholarships�but some calculators add another estimate that includes loans and makes it look like you'll pay less than you really will, says Lauren Asher, president of the Institute for College Access and Success, a nonprofit group that monitors student debt.

Going for the loan with the lowest interest rate.

If you do plan to take out loans, be wary of ones from private lenders that boast good-looking interest rates.

For instance, Sallie Mae, the largest private student lender, is offering loans with a variable rate as low as 2.25% and ones with a fixed rate as low as 5.75%. In comparison, new federally subsidized loans taken out by undergraduates currently carry a fixed 3.4% rate, and federal parent Plus loans currently have a fixed 7.9% rate.

"Are these low rates appealing to parents? Absolutely," says Mr. Bickford, the former financial-aid officer. But it's hardly ever a good idea to go with one of these private loans instead of a federal one, no matter the difference in rates, he says.

With the variable-rate options, the rate may rise above the fixed federal rate in the years that you or your child are paying it back. Private loans are also less flexible than federally backed ones if you're in a tough financial situation later on.

Thinking an aid offer is set in stone.

In many cases, colleges will increase your aid package if you appeal it. But you'll have to know what information to put forward to convince them.

If your family has financial constraints that don't show up on the FAFSA�the form doesn't ask about things like high medical bills or support for a special-needs child�you should send financial documents that attest to this. Send similar documents if you've had a big financial change since your base income year.

Colleges may also boost your aid package if you tactfully show them that directly competing colleges are offering you a better aid package. At many schools, "they're figuring out the minimum amount of aid they need to give you to get you to come," says Kalman A. Chany, a New York City-based consultant who helps families maximize their financial-aid packages.

Send the aid office the award letters from the other colleges and reiterate your child's interest in their school. Even at need-only institutions, you may land a better package, says Mr. Weinerman. "There's a lot of art in need-based financial aid," he says.

Figuring aid will be about the same all four years.

Once your child's freshman aid package is set, remember that you'll have to go through the process again with a new FAFSA each subsequent year, and that the results may well be different, even if your financial picture doesn't change in your new base income year.

Many colleges these days practice "frontloading," where they offer students more money freshman year than in later years to get them in the door. The typical student at a four-year public or private nonprofit college will get around $1,400 less in grants and scholarships their sophomore year, according to an analysis of aid data done by Mr. Kantrowitz.

If their financial situation stays the same, there's little families can do to prevent this drop-off in grant aid, says Mr. Kantrowitz.

Still, a college's financial-aid office may be forthright about frontloading if you ask, he says. Once you know you'll likely get less aid, you can start saving to cover the shortfall.

One more thing to bear in mind: Even if your child didn't receive any aid in the first year of college, keep applying in subsequent years. If you have a change in your family situation�say, another child goes off to college or your family income goes down�you could become eligible for aid.

Ms. Ensign is a Wall Street Journal staff reporter in New York. She can be reached at rachel.ensign@wsj.com.

The Slow, Profitable Death of Traditional IT

It's almost hard to remember the days when a chief information officer, or CIO, would dictate the devices and software you'd use at work. That started to change when the Web and open standards rose to prominence and made data sharing across different platforms easier. That, in turn, freed users to choose to work with the devices they liked best.

Today, many companies have "BYOD," or "bring your own device," policies that cater to these control freaks. And none has benefited more than Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , which has seen legions of fans bring iPhones to work rather than opt for company-approved BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY  ) alternatives.

But there are limits to the allowable chaos. Accordingly, Dropbox, a popular file sharing service that's used in 95% of Fortune 500 organizations, just recently announced administrative tools to make it easier for CIOs to monitor those who use the software at work.

Is there a happy medium between BYOD and the command and control days that led the ascendancy of the PC and BlackBerry? Tim Beyers of Motley Fool Rule Breakers and Motley Fool Supernova addresses this question and more in the video below. Please watch, and then be sure to leave a comment to let us know what you think.

For further analysis of Apple, I invite you try our newest premium research service. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, will tell you�whether Apple is a buy now and what opportunities remain for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. Just�click here now to get instant access to his latest analysis.

Should You Buy This Energy Highflier?

It's no secret that the refining industry is hot right now. Increasing domestic oil production has flooded refiners with cheap crude, allowing them to make a killing on margins, as the price of gasoline -- based on the world's oil price -- remains high. Even refiners that are relatively new to the publicly traded world are posting incredible returns. Since its IPO last December, PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF  ) has returned an astounding 35.9%. Today we take a closer look at what's driving growth, and whether or not it's worth buying into now.

What is PBF
PBF Energy produces unbranded petroleum products, including heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, and lubricants. It operates three refineries -- one each in Toledo, Ohio, Delaware City, Del., and Paulsboro, N.J. -- and combined capacity is about 540,000 barrels per day.

It is the fifth-largest independent refiner in the states, behind Valero (NYSE: VLO  ) , Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX  ) , Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC  ) and Tesoro (NYSE: TSO  ) . The group as a whole had a terrific 2012, and has performed very well so far in 2013. Take a look at how PBF compares to its peers statistically:

Company

Price

EPS

P/E

YTD Perform-
ance

Refineries

Through-
put Capacity

(Mbpd)

Avg. Complex-
ity

Valero

$45.70

$3.75

12.2

28.78%

16

2540

12.4

Phillips 66

$61.01

$6.48

9.4

10.42%

15

2231

11

Marathon Petroleum

$76.68

$9.89

7.8

19.75%

7

1644

11.7

Tesoro

$50.23

$4.19

12

10.66%

7

917

10.2

PBF Energy

$35.92

$3.85

9.3

22.32%

3

540

11.3

Source: Yahoo! Finance, PBF Energy

Obviously, PBF Energy is not the next Valero; it is a small fish in a big pond. However, there are a few things to like here. Despite only having three refineries, the average complexity of those refineries is quite high. That number, the Nelson Complexity Rating, indicates the cost and value of a refinery's capacity. A high number indicates a more costly refinery to upgrade and maintain, but one that is also able to produce higher-value refined products and process more difficult crudes, as compared to a refinery with a lower rating.

Higher and higher
Shares of PBF have soared on news events. It climbed when Hess�announced it was doing away with its refining business, it popped when Valero announced spectacular earnings, and it climbed again today, when management announced that its first rail delivery of Bakken crude was slated to arrive this week. PBF also announced it planned to increase the capacity of Canadian heavy crudes it can process at its Delaware City refinery, adding 40,000 barrels per day and bringing the total capacity up to 80,000 bpd by the end of the year.

That's a lot of good news. In fact, the stock is up more than 23% since I first wrote about it a mere two weeks ago. Make no mistake, with a P/E barely over nine, this is not the sort of wild ride investors take on overvalued technology stocks. PBF's quick ascent was matched by Valero and its industry peers, but that doesn't mean it's a risk-free stock either. Before we throw our hat in the ring, let's take a look at some potential setbacks.

Higher still?
There are some potential threats to the continued rise of PBF's share price. First, with only three refineries, PBF is at risk of a significant loss of capacity should something go wrong at any location. Its Toledo refinery recently experienced a fire in its fluid catalytic cracking complex. That section is shut down, and other units at the refinery are running at reduced rates. Only time will tell what sort of impact this will have on the bottom line, but it is now imperative that there are no incidents at the other refineries until this one is up and running at full capacity again. There is very little wiggle room when you only have three facilities.

Second, much of the upside to PBF is built on the premise that it will be able to utilize cheap domestic crude sources delivered via railcars. We have already seen how little pipeline spills affect pipeline companies, so I don't anticipate a rail car spill having an affect either, if and when one occurs. However, oil price volatility will affect the refining industry. If the price of Brent crude plummets and brings down the global price of refined products with it, that's bad news for the industry. Similarly, if the price of WTI skyrockets, and eliminates the spread between the two crude benchmarks, it will take refiners' profitable margins with it. Though I see both scenarios as unlikely in the near future, predicting oil prices is a fool's errand.

Finally, without an earnings report under its belt, there are more than a few questions that remain unanswered for now, including tangible ideas like a blueprint for the future, and intangible ideas like management's transparency and approach to investor relations.

Foolish takeaway
I think there is significant upside at PBF Energy for the next three years at least, but that is likely true of all well-managed refiners. Interested investors may want to wait until PBF reports earnings for the first time before opening a position, though in this case that may mean missing out on some more immediate gain in share price.

It's easy to forget the necessity of midstream operators that seamlessly transport oil and gas throughout the United States. Kinder Morgan is one of these operators, and one that investors should commit to memory due to its sheer size � it's the fourth-largest energy company in the U.S. � not to mention its enormous potential for profits. In The Motley Fool's new premium research report on Kinder Morgan, our top energy analyst breaks down the company's growing opportunity, as well as the risks to watch out for, in order to uncover whether it's a buy or a sell. To determine whether this dividend giant is right for your portfolio, simply click here now to claim your copy of this invaluable investor's resource. As an added bonus, you'll receive a full year of key updates and guidance as news develops, so don't miss out!

Friday, March 1, 2013

Digging Into Coca-Cola Earnings: Is Coke Getting Flat?

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) released earnings today, and while the company met analysts' estimates, gross margins contracted to their lowest point in a decade due to increased commodity costs, causing a bit of a sell-off today. In this video, Motley Fool consumer goods analyst Blake Bos tells investors which markets will be bellwethers for Coca-Cola's return to its past profitability and whether now is a good time for investors to get involved with the company.

There is absolutely no question that Coca-Cola has been great to long-term shareholders, but the company faces some new threats to its continued market dominance.�We've�recently compiled a premium research report containing everything you need to know about Coca-Cola. If you own or are considering owning shares in the company, you'll want to click here now and get started!

U.S. stock market rallies on jobs report

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) � U.S. stocks on Friday started a new month with strong gains after the January nonfarm payrolls report bolstered thinking that the lackluster recovery remains on track.

�This is the day we probably reach 14,000 on the Dow,� said Darrell Cronk, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank.

�The primary driver is not the 157,000 new jobs, but the positive revisions to the months of November and December,� Cronk said.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �rose 87.24 points, or 0.6%, to 13,947.82. The blue-chip index has not reached 14,000 since October 2007.

The S&P 500 index SPX �gained 8.32 points, or 0.6%, to 1,506.43, with telecommunications leading the gains among its 10 major industry groups.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP � added 19.08 points, or 0.6%, to 3,161.21.

For every stock falling more than four rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where nearly 104 million shares traded as of 9:50 a.m. Eastern.

Ahead of Friday�s open, stock-index futures had added to gains after the government reported the U.S. economy created a smaller-than-expected 157,000 jobs in January but added more the prior two months than initially thought. The unemployment rate edged up 0.1% to 7.9%. Read: U.S. economy adds 157,000 jobs in January.

Top SEC Attorney Inherited Dirty Madoff Millions, Says Suit

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Irving Picard, trustee for the liquidation of Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff’s firm, has filed a suit against top SEC attorney David Becker and his two brothers that said that Becker and his siblings benefited from a Madoff account that was in their mother’s estate. The suit further alleges that the Beckers liquidated the account, some of the funds of which amounted to “$1,544,494 of other people’s money.”

Becker had announced on Feb. 1 that he would be leaving the SEC, just eight days prior to the date on a pre-trial summons that was served to Becker and his brothers William and Daniel. He said he had “no idea” when the case was filed, and that the summons came in the mail “sometime late last week,” according to a Bloomberg report. He denied that his departure from the SEC had anything remotely to do with the Madoff lawsuit, but instead was the natural end of a “two-year deal” with SEC chairman Mary Schapiro.

The Beckers’ mother, Dorothy, passed away in June of 2004, according to an MSNBC report, and all three Becker brothers were appointed co-executors of her estate. The Madoff account among her assets, according to the suit filed in N.Y. federal court, received a bit more than $2 million from Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC. The suit, which was filed late last year, says, "The trustee's investigation has revealed that $1,544,494 of this amount was fictitious profit from the Ponzi scheme. Accordingly, defendants have received $1,544,494 of other people's money."

John Nester, an SEC spokesman, said that Becker knew nothing about the Madoff investments. He went on to say in a statement, "He was not involved in his parents' financial affairs, and has no recollections of his parents' investment with Madoff prior to his mother's death and the subsequent liquidation of the account."

The suit filed by Picard seeks to recover the illicit funds for return to Madoff’s’ victims.

Top Stocks To Buy For 2/8/2013-4

Furiex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:FURX) achieved its new 52 week high price of $19.54 where it was opened at $18.59 up 0.63 points or +3.40% by closing at $19.14. FURX transacted shares during the day were over 36,828 shares however it has an average volume of 99,729 shares.

FURX has a market capitalization $189.12 million and an enterprise value at $121.16 million. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 20.90 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 1.80. In profitability ratios, operating profit margin in past twelve months appeared at -610.82%.

The company made a return on asset of -40.60% in past twelve months and return on equity of -74.72% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $9.05 million gaining $0.92 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 23.20%.

According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $67.97 million cash in hand making cash per share at 6.88. The total debt was $0.00 billion. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 5.36 and book value per share was 10.61.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 16.72% where the stock price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average with $15.99 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average with $15.65.

FURX holds 9.88 million outstanding shares with 7.41 million floating shares where insider possessed 11.21% and institutions kept 73.10%.

Will ASML Holding Fall Short Next Quarter?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for ASML Holding (ENXTAM: ASML) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can, at times, suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like ASML Holding do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is ASML Holding sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. ASML Holding's latest average DSO stands at 63.8 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 78.3 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does ASML Holding look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The raw numbers suggest potential trouble ahead. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, ASML Holding's year-over-year revenue shrank 15.5%, and its AR dropped 9.3%. That looks ok, but end-of-quarter DSO increased 1.8% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 92.7% versus the prior quarter. That demands a good explanation. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

Is ASML Holding your best play in technology? Computers, mobile devices, and related services are creating huge amounts of valuable data, but only for companies that can crunch the numbers and make sense of it. Meet the leader in this field in "The Only Stock You Need To Profit From the NEW Technology Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add ASML Holding to My Watchlist.

Housing: Partying Like It’s 1925

As incredible and out-of-balance as the housing bubble was, I'm becoming more convinced that the housing bust -- particularly in new home construction -- has been even more remarkable.

From 1960 to 2007, America built an average of about 1.5 million homes per year. That ballooned to 2.2 million per year during the housing bubble, and collapsed to half a million a year in 2010. After rebounding from the depths, about 800,000 new homes were built in 2012.

There's something incredible about that 800,000 figure. I recently came across this chart in a paper by UCLA economist Ed Learner, showing housing starts from 1920-1950. You'll notice that housing starts in the year 1925 were about ... 800,000.

Think about that. We're building the same number of homes today as we were back�when cars had to be started with a hand crank, and the new technological breakthrough was a giant box called a "radio." The U.S. population in 1925 was 115 million and growing by about 1.5 million per year. Today it's 315 million and growing by 2.5 million per year.

Comparing current housing starts to 1925 levels isn't meaningful in itself. It's just a way to put the current market in perspective. But that perspective should be powerful: Given household formation and current levels of existing inventory, there is no reasonable way you can justify current levels of housing construction. Barring a deep demographic shock like a war, it won't support population growth.

Bill Miller of Legg Mason told the Financial Times this month:

He [Miller] says there is a big structural demand for homes due to a growing population and a lack of building during the bust, when fewer than 500,000 new homes a year were built. The long-term trend is for 1.4m to 1.5m new homes a year, so to catch up "we probably need to get to 2m housing starts at some point in the next five years."

We don't know exactly when that's going to happen. It could be next year, or five years from now -- maybe even longer. But we know with a high degree of confidence that it will happen someday. People need a roof over their heads.

And we know what will come with a boom in construction: It's good for jobs, it's good for economic growth, and it's obviously good for homebuilders. A quality builder like NVR (NYSE: NVR  ) has a good chance of outperforming in the coming years.

Some worry that homebuilder stocks look expensive. That's understandable. But valuing a homebuilder based on current earnings might be misleading. If housing starts double from current levels, as Miller and others suggest, earnings growth at homebuilders will surge. A decade ago, people made the opposite mistake, assuming homebuilders were cheap based on inflated earnings. Remember: Busts can be just as distorting as booms.�

link

Pentagon Buys $27 Million Worth of Warbots Ahead of Sequester Date

As the final hours before "sequester" ticked away Thursday, another "ticking" sounds was heard deep within the Pentagon halls -- the clickety-clacking of military robotics contracts being awarded.

The Department of Defense announced a pair of such contracts on Thursday. Of the two, U.S. firm iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT  ) won the slightly larger award, a $14.4 million contract to supply an unspecified number of the new FirstLook "throwable" robots, along with spare-parts kits and robot accessories.

Weighing in at 5.4 pounds, and dimensioned 4 inches tall by 10 inches long by 9 inches wide, the FirstLook is a tough little robot that looks like a mini PackBot. It is designed to be tossed through windows and through other confined access points to spy out what's inside through the lenses of four built-in cameras that wirelessly transmit data back to the operator.

A second robotics contract went to the U.K.'s QinetiQ, which has been asked to supply similar Dragon Runner-10 Micro Unmanned Ground Vehicles (MUGVs), along with spare parts, for a total sum of $12.9 million. The DR10s are somewhat larger and heavier�than the FirstLooks -- 5.8 inches tall by 15 inches long by 13.5 inches wide, and weighing 10 pounds. QinetiQ has designed these, too, as throwable robots for checking out confined spaces from a safe distance.

The two sets of warbots are scheduled to arrive within just days of each other, with iRobot's FirstLooks being delivered Aug. 20, and QinetiQ's DR10s arriving Aug. 25.

link

Are You Expecting This from Santarus?

Santarus (Nasdaq: SNTS  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on March 4. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Santarus's revenues will expand 45.8% and EPS will decrease -66.7%.

The average estimate for revenue is $62.0 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.01.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Santarus booked revenue of $54.7 million. GAAP reported sales were much higher than the prior-year quarter's $26.8 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.13. GAAP EPS of $0.13 for Q3 were much higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.01 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 66.3%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 16.3%, much better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 16.4%, much better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $209.8 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.20.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 137 members out of 151 rating the stock outperform, and 14 members rating it underperform. Among 32 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 28 give Santarus a green thumbs-up, and four give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Santarus is buy, with an average price target of $10.44.

  • Add Santarus to My Watchlist.

Why BroadSoft Shares Got Crushed

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Internet communications company BroadSoft (NASDAQ: BSFT  ) sank a whopping 28% today after the company issued guidance that disappointed Wall Street.

So what: BroadSoft's fourth-quarter results -- adjusted EPS of $0.47 on revenue growth of 13% -- managed to top estimates, but downside guidance for the current quarter and full year is triggering plenty of concerns over slowing growth going forward. Management said that consumer applications revenue will be down prior to service providers upgrading completely to LTE networks, while professional services�revenue will decline due to revenue recognition timing issues, forcing analysts to drastically recalibrate their valuation estimates.

Now what: Management now sees full-year EPS of $1.20-$1.35 on revenue of $181 million-$189 million, well below its prior view of $1.72 and $196.9 million. "In 2013, we will continue to focus on developing innovative mobile services to address the growing multi-device communication trend and provide users the freedom to communicate from anywhere," CEO Michael Tessler reassured investors. "[W]e remain excited by the opportunities to further drive adoption of BroadSoft-enabled solutions." When you couple the uncertainty surrounding BroadSoft's growth trajectory with its still-lofty price ratios, however, I'd wait for an even more of a pullback before buying into that bull talk.

Interested in more info BroadSoft? Add it to your watchlist.

2013 and beyond
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in the brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Universal Display Makes Up for Lost Time

Last quarter, OLED specialist Universal Display (NASDAQ: PANL  ) got absolutely clobbered after the company missed Street forecasts. Delays in OLED adoption in TVs were one culprit to the shortfall, which led to a troublesome jump in inventory sitting on the balance sheet. Just days ago, shares were also knocked down by 16% on negative analyst sentiment.

After posting fourth-quarter earnings last night, shares have gained by as much as 17% today. How good were the figures?

A mixed bag
Revenue in the fourth quarter came in at $28.1 million. A large chunk of that was the $15 million royalty payment the company received from Samsung, which it collects every other quarter. Material sales declined modestly to $10.1 million. However, the Street was expecting only $26.4 million in revenue, allowing the company to top expectations.

On the other hand, UDC missed analyst estimates on the bottom line by a penny. The $0.12 per share profit was barely shy of the $0.13 per share profit that analysts were modeling for.

The guidance game
UDC offered guidance for the next fiscal year, with 2013 sales expected to be in the range of $110 million to $125 million, although it's worth noting that management missed its guidance last year, because of aforementioned OLED TV product delays at Samsung and LG. In the third quarter of 2012, UDC was forced to reduce full-year guidance from a range of $90 million to $110 million to a lower range of $80 million to $82 million for fiscal 2012. The company was able to moderately top this reduced range, as full-year 2012 sales ended up being $83.2 million.

Those OLED TV delays have weighed on UDC's results, but the good news is that LG has finally started shipping those devices. LG started taking pre-orders late last year, and the South Korean company said that it had over 100 customers waiting in line. That's a respectable amount of consumers willing to pay over $10,000 to be early adopters of the next wave of TV technology. Make no mistake: OLED is the next wave and LG just recently said it would invest an additional $657 million in OLED panel manufacturing facilities.

Samsung introduced its curved OLED TV at CES last month, but has not disclosed a firm shipping date. At long last, OLED TVs are beginning to ramp up, and while we're still in the very early stages, it's better than further delays.

There are plenty of Galaxies where that came from
Deutsche Bank is slightly increasing its price target on shares from $32 to $35 while sticking with its "buy" rating following the results. The analyst believes UDC is being conservative with outlook and also expects the launch of Samsung's Galaxy S IV (which is slated for March 14) to provide a near-term boost of green material sales.

However, this is still up in the air (in my opinion). While Samsung is certainly a big proponent of OLED displays in its smartphones, recent rumors suggest that the company has been running into manufacturing challenges producing AMOLED displays at the full HD resolutions it wants to. Those difficulties may force Samsung to switch back to traditional LCD displays in 2013 throughout its lineup while it works out the kinks.

The South Korean company is also reportedly having power issues with its Exynos 5 Octa chip that was supposed to power the Galaxy S IV, and it may have to fall back on Qualcomm for one of its newer Snapdragon processors that boast better power efficiency. Chances are the Galaxy S IV may ship with a SoLux Display and a Snapdragon 600.

If the rumors prove accurate, then the Galaxy S IV may not benefit UDC like Deutsche Bank believes. Fortunately, Samsung has plenty of other Galaxy devices that sport OLED displays, even if the new flagship won't.

Galaxy S IV notwithstanding, UDC still has plenty of opportunities this year.

Universal Display has a powerful patent portfolio behind OLEDs, a technology poised to dominate the displays of the future. Its placement at the center of OLEDs makes the company an underappreciated way to play the enormous sales growth in tablets and smartphones. However, like any new technology, there are plenty of risks to Universal Display. I've authored a new premium report that dives into reasons to buy the company as well as the challenges facing it. For access to this comprehensive report, simply click here now.

Youku Crushes Estimates, but Shares Are Down 19%

Even though�Youku Tudou (NYSE: YOKU  ) beat expectations, the market shot shares down as much as 19% in after-hours trading. The company crushed analysts' estimated losses of $0.96 and $3.75, per ADS, with $0.11 and $0.51 for the quarter and year, respectively; but as earnings were still in the red, the stock followed suit.

After Youku completed its merger with Tudou on�Aug. 23, 2012, Tudou's financial results were consolidated with Youku's for the quarter and year.

In Q4 2012, the company raked in net revenues of $102.1 million (RMB635.8 milllion), a 30% increased compared to combined revenues �over the same period last year. Similarly, net losses improved. The company saw a 43% decrease from the combined net loss over the same period, losing only $18.2 million (RMB113.6 million).�

According to President Dele Liu:

In terms of cost structure, the fourth quarter results reflect early synergies resulting from the merger, especially in bandwidth and personnel related expenses. We expect this trend to continue into 2013, supported by the overall improvement of our unit economics due to the ongoing growth in traffic, especially the significant growth from mobile devices.

For FY2012, net revenues were�$288.2 million (RMB1.8 billion),while net loss totaled US$68.1 million (RMB424.0 million).�

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Victor Koo said he was pleased with company's performance:

We managed solid revenue growth and the net loss for the combined company has narrowed materially despite sales disruption brought on by the reorganization of our sales team after the merger.

For 2013, CEO Koo added that he expects the large-scale merger to continue to affect the company's finances, but, by the second half of 2013, the company should see a growth in momentum and cost synergies.

2 Shares Set to Beat the FTSE 100 Today

LONDON -- The FTSE 100 (FTSEINDICES: ^FTSE  ) is creeping back further today, up 0.25% to 6,342 by 7:50 a.m. EST. The Italian political crisis was days ago now, and it seems to have been conveniently forgotten as short-term thinking once again comes to the fore.

With the FTSE up only modestly, it's not hard for individual companies to beat it. Here are two achieving that feat today.

British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS  ) (NYSEMKT: BTI  )
British American Tobacco shares have had a reasonable year, and today they've gained 0.3% reach 3,428 pence after the company released better-than-expected results for the full year. Although stick volumes were down by 1.6%, revenue rose by 4% to 16 billion pounds, feeding through to a bottom-line basic earnings-per-share rise of 26% to 198.1 pence.

The dividend is to be lifted by 7% to 134.9 pence per share for a 4% yield. Some will be unwilling to invest in a tobacco company for ethical reasons, but there's no denying that it's a profitable business.

Howden Joinery (LSE: HWDN  )
Howden Joinery Group shares are up 75% over the past 12 months, having gained 9.2% this morning to reach 208 pence after the firm delivered full-year results. Total revenue rose by 3.9% to 887 million pounds, with pre-tax profit up 1% to 112 million pounds.

A full-year dividend of 3 pence was announced, up from last year's start of 0.5 pence, to give a yield of 1.5% on the current share price. Going forward, the company intends to offer a dividend with between 2.5 and 3.5 times cover, with one-third of the previous year's dividend paid as an interim the following year.

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AmSurg Increases Sales but Misses Estimates on Earnings

AmSurg (Nasdaq: AMSG  ) reported earnings on Feb. 25. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), AmSurg beat expectations on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew. GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Gross margins contracted, operating margins dropped, net margins increased.

Revenue details
AmSurg recorded revenue of $244.2 million. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for revenue of $237.9 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 9.3% higher than the prior-year quarter's $223.3 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.49. The eight earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.50 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.49 for Q4 were 6.5% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.46 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.53 for Q4 were 20% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.44 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 54.1%, 80 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 29.8%, 40 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 6.9%, 80 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $262.6 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.52.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $1.07 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.17.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 139 members out of 147 rating the stock outperform, and eight members rating it underperform. Among 50 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 48 give AmSurg a green thumbs-up, and two give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on AmSurg is hold, with an average price target of $28.64.

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Currency ETFs: A Smart Way to Play Dollar Devaluation?

U.S. investors face a huge potential problem in their portfolios: currency risk. Yet many of them never even realize it. With currency ETFs, though, investors now have the power to hedge their exposure to the U.S. dollar in a way that could produce big profits if the dollar declines in the future. Let's take a closer look at what currency ETFs are and how they can help you manage currency risk in your portfolio.

Making currencies easy
Before currency ETFs came along, trading the foreign exchange markets was relatively difficult. Investors had a few different options to bet on movements in the dollar versus foreign currencies. You could buy foreign currency directly from banks or at currency-exchange kiosks at airports and other locations, but the transaction costs remain unacceptably high for any serious investor, and holding foreign cash doesn't give you any interest. Yet on the other end of the spectrum, forex futures contracts give you professional-level exposure to currency fluctuations, but you have to be willing to take massive positions, as single standard-size futures contracts often represent six-figure sums in U.S. dollar terms, and even specialized small contracts get into five figures.

Currency ETFs have been around for more than seven years now, and they've bridged the gap between high-value futures contracts and the local bank's currency exchange desk. The way most currency ETFs work is simple: Each share of the ETF represents a certain fixed amount of foreign currency, and so the cost of the share in dollar terms goes up and down along with changes in the exchange rate between the dollar and that foreign currency.

For instance, one of the largest players in the currency ETF market is CurrencyShares, which has a wide variety of ETFs targeting different markets. Each share of CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar (NYSEMKT: FXC  ) , for instance, represents 100 Canadian dollars, while shares of CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (NYSEMKT: FXY  ) are each worth 10,000 Japanese yen.

In addition to moving along with currency fluctuations, currency ETFs usually invest in instruments that pay at least small amounts of interest. In some cases, as with the CurrencyShares Euro (NYSEMKT: FXE  ) , low interest rates are insufficient to pay all of the fund's expenses. But in markets with higher interest rates, as with the CurrencyShares Australian Dollar (NYSEMKT: FXA  ) , you'll receive modest dividends from your ETF holdings -- about a 3% yield in the case of the Australian currency ETF.

Insurance or gambling?
With the flexible trading that exchange-traded funds offer, currency ETFs are easy to buy and sell whenever the markets are open. That makes them easy to use for speculation as well as for legitimate attempts to hedge U.S. dollar exposure.

But with recent trends in the global economy, the line between speculation and hedging has become very blurry. Rhetoric from world leaders, especially among emerging markets, about the need to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency has become a lot quieter lately, especially as the dollar has risen dramatically in value against the Japanese yen over the past year. Still, as budget debt balances in the U.S. continue to rise, it's easy to envision a situation in which reducing the value of the dollar benefits the government in handling its debt -- while hurting those investors who rely on the dollar maintaining its value.

New ways to play
With the introduction of the PIMCO Foreign Currency Strategy ETF, an actively managed fund that will use various analytical tools to decide which currencies to target for maximum exposure to better returns as well as protection against a future dollar decline, interest in currency ETFs is likely to soar in the weeks and months to come. But the long-term viability of currency ETFs depends on their ability to provide better returns than U.S. dollar-denominated assets. Given the steady decline in the dollar's value for decades, that seems like a reasonable bet for the future as well.

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Dollar drops against yen ahead of G-20

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) � The dollar declined against the Japanese yen in Asia trading hours Friday, ahead of a meeting of the world�s top finance ministers and central bankers set to start later in the day.

The dollar USDJPY �slipped to 92.27 Japanese yen on Friday, down from �92.85 late the previous day and trading around its lows of the week.

�Once again Japan continues to grab headlines in Asia, with plenty of yen positioning ahead of the [Group of 20] meetings,� IG Markets strategist Stan Shamu said.

At the Moscow gathering, finance leaders of the Group of 20 major economies will back a pledge to �refrain from competitive devaluation� and will monitor �possible monetary-policy spillover,� Bloomberg News reported Thursday, citing a draft statement it had obtained. Read: G-20 reportedly to vow no competitive devaluation

The Japanese currency is likely to be a particular focus for the meeting, given that it has fallen by more than 6% against the dollar in about six weeks, according to FactSet data.

Click to Play How betting against the yen paid off

U.S. hedge-fund investors have made billions off the weakening yen. The prospect of inflation in Japan as the yen weakens may prompt people to turn to gold as a currency hedge.

�All week we have heard conflicting reports on what various leaders think about the yen�s depreciation. As a result ... the G-20 meetings [may] provide some clarity on this,� said Shamu at IG Markets.

The ICE dollar index DXY �which measures the greenback against a basket of six other top currencies, traded at 80.288, down from 80.336 in late North American trading Thursday.

The WSJ dollar index XX:BUXX XX:BUXX , which uses a slightly wider currency basket, eased to 71.59, down from 71.67 late Thursday.

The euro EURUSD �was little changed, inching lower to $1.3361 from $1.3369 in late trading Thursday.

The single currency had lost ground against the dollar Thursday after the release of disappointing euro-zone gross domestic profit data. Read: Dollar advances as euro-zone GDP disappoints

�Any further negative data will weigh on euro/dollar, potentially to break below $1.33. Later today, we have Italian and European trade-balance numbers to look out for,� said Shamu at IG Markets.

In the U.K., investors will be focusing on retail sales data, �which have the potential to derail the pound further should the data disappoint,� he said.

The British pound GBPUSD �rose to $1.5517, up from $1.5492, while Australia�s dollar AUDUSD �traded at $1.0361, up slightly from $1.0353.

Portland General Electric Misses on Both Revenue and Earnings

Portland General Electric (NYSE: POR  ) reported earnings on Feb. 22. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Portland General Electric missed estimates on revenues and missed estimates on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank. Non-GAAP earnings per share contracted significantly. GAAP earnings per share dropped.

Gross margins increased, operating margins increased, net margins shrank.

Revenue details
Portland General Electric reported revenue of $463.0 million. The four analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected a top line of $489.2 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were the same as the prior-year quarter's.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.38. The nine earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.41 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.38 for Q4 were 21% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.48 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.37 for Q4 were 2.6% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.38 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 45.8%, 200 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 15.3%, 90 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 6.0%, 10 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $556.1 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.67.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $1.84 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.91.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 80 members out of 88 rating the stock outperform, and eight members rating it underperform. Among 28 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 26 give Portland General Electric a green thumbs-up, and two give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Portland General Electric is hold, with an average price target of $28.00.

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Target Beats Up on Analysts Yet Again

Target (NYSE: TGT  ) reported earnings on Feb. 27. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Feb. 2 (Q4), Target met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew significantly. GAAP earnings per share expanded slightly.

Gross margins grew, operating margins shrank, net margins contracted.

Revenue details
Target notched revenue of $22.73 billion. The 19 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for revenue of $22.67 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 6.8% higher than the prior-year quarter's $21.29 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $1.65. The 20 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast $1.53 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.65 for Q4 were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.43 per share. GAAP EPS of $1.47 for Q4 were 1.4% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.45 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 28.3%, 260 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 7.3%, 70 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 4.2%, 40 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $17.21 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.06.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $76.26 billion. The average EPS estimate is $4.91.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 2,431 members out of 2,663 rating the stock outperform, and 232 members rating it underperform. Among 795 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 748 give Target a green thumbs-up, and 47 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Target is outperform, with an average price target of $69.41.

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  • Add Target to My Watchlist.

3 Stocks to Get on Your Watchlist

I follow quite a lot of companies, so the usefulness of a watchlist to me cannot be overstated. Without my watchlist, I'd be unable to keep up on my favorite sectors and see what's really moving the market. Even worse, I'd be lost when the time came to choose which stock I'm buying or shorting next.

Today is Watchlist Wednesday, so I'm discussing three companies that have crossed my radar in the past week -- and at what point I may consider taking action on these calls with my own money. Keep in mind that these aren't concrete buy or sell recommendations, nor do I guarantee I'll take action on the companies being discussed weekly. What I can promise is that you can�follow my real-life transactions�through my profile and that I, like everyone else here at The Motley Fool, will continue to hold the integrity of our�disclosure policy�in the highest regard.

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP  )
J.C. Penney certainly hasn't been a dull company to follow over the past year and change, as former Apple stores vice president Ron Johnson has tried practically everything under the sun to turn around Penney's ailing retail business. Ron Johnson's multipart plan involved removing sales from Penney's grand scheme, introducing the store-within-a-store concept with desirable brand-name products, and focusing its efforts on mobile.

The experiment has been a monumental failure thus far, with Johnson caving in on reintroducing sales and online sales improving only modestly. What really stands to be a thorn in Penney's side is the upcoming litigation between it and Macy's (NYSE: M  ) over the rights to sell Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia products in its stores.

Penney's has taken a 16.6% stake in Martha Stewart Living and plans to introduce mini-shops -- one featuring Martha Stewart's products -- within its stores. Needless to say, despite her troubled past, Martha Stewart's products are still a force to be reckoned with in regard to driving traffic into retail stores. Macy's, however, contends that it entered into an agreement with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia in 2007, long before Penney's entered into its pact with Martha Stewart Living, which should preclude Penney's from selling these products until 2018. The case, which is readying to get under way in New York, won't doom either party, but Penney's clearly has more on the line to lose if the judge sides with Macy's. Keep a close eye on this case, as Martha Stewart could be the biggest traffic driver Penney's has in its deck.�

Affymax (NASDAQ: AFFY  )
Biotech shareholders occasionally live and die by the sword -- Affymax shareholders know that all too well after their stock was eviscerated on Monday following word that it and licensing partner Takeda Pharmaceuticals were, in cooperation with the Food and Drug Administration, recalling all lots of injectable Omontys. According to the press release, of the 25,000-plus patients having taken the once-a-month injectable anemia drug, about 0.2% had a hypersensitivity reaction of which one-third were considered serious. In total, 0.02% of cumulative patient injections resulted in death.

While I'd like to say an 85% haircut is grounds for a rebound, I think the company could unfortunately fall another 50% to 75% from its current levels and would consider betting against it on any rally in the interim.

The reasons are simple. First, recalls that result in death rarely are easy fixes. The FDA isn't going to allow Affymax to just simply slap a black-box label on there and "ta-da," problem solved. We're probably looking at multiple new safety aspects being looked at and potentially one or more safety trials being run.

Second, Affymax's entire pipeline is built around Omontys. Its only other trials are a late-stage dosing trial with Omontys and a mid-stage overseas study utilizing Omontys to treat patients with anemia caused by pure red cell aplasia. Without Omontys, Affymax has enough cash to perhaps survive another two years if it announces layoffs and cuts back on R&D.

Finally, even if -- and that's a big if -- Omontys makes it back to market, Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN  ) will have further solidified its market share lead in anemia treatments with Epogen. Amgen's Epogen has basically controlled the market for two decades, and multiyear agreements with the nation's top dialysis centers ensure that Affymax will have a rough go of things if it manages to revive Omontys.

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY  )
Mortgage real estate investment trusts continue to sport impressive dividend yields, but they've been basically taken to the woodshed over the past few months as the Fed's mortgage-bond buying program has lessened the number of available MBS's for purchase and significantly reduced the net interest margin that Annaly receives. However, that pattern looks like it could be about to change, which would be great news for Annaly.

Last week the Federal Reserve noted in its meeting minutes that it may not be able to continue purchasing $85 billion worth of Treasuries and mortgage bonds prior to unemployment levels hitting 6.5% as it originally thought. While this is unlikely to have a big immediate impact on interest rates, as I'd suspect the Fed will merely cut back on its purchases, not stop them altogether, it'll definitely open up the pool of MBS's to Annaly's advantage and should quickly boost net interest margins while allowing it to add leverage with minimal risk.

Please keep in mind that eventually lending rates will rise and, as they do, Annaly's net interest margin will be pinched. Until that time, which the Fed has commonly said won't be until at least 2015, you can probably expect solid margins and a relatively high yield.

Foolish roundup
Is my bullishness or bearishness misplaced? Share your thoughts in the comments section below, and consider following my cue by using these links to add these companies to your free personalized Watchlist to keep up on the latest news with each company:

  • Add J.C. Penney to My Watchlist.
  • Add Affymax to My Watchlist.
  • Add Annaly Capital Management to My Watchlist.

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