Saturday, November 3, 2012

Japan’s Currency Woes: Yen ETFs in Focus

With just two and a half months in the books, 2010 has already been an odd year from an investment perspective. A small European nation that accounts for just a fraction of global GDP has become a major driver of stock and bond markets around the globe, capable of setting off both buying and selling sprees with every new development. The financial sector, a laggard since its role in sparking the most recent recession, has surged higher, while utilities have been among the worst performers.

But perhaps no development has been more perplexing than the strength of the Japanese yen, an issue that has become a source of major frustration to officials still working to pull Japan’s economy from a prolonged downturn and ward off a period of deflation. A strong yen is a potential problem for Japan because it makes the country’s exports, a major component of the national economy, more expensive to international consumers. For the most part, Japanese equities missed out on the rally of 2009, finishing the year in positive territory but lagging far behind emerging and developed economies. While the drivers of the country’s poor performance are numerous, the relative strength of the yen has frequently been fingered as a major contributor.

The persistently strong currency has sparked some bizarre actions from the Japanese government in recent days. “Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama tried to weaken the yen Friday through the unusual step of talking down the Japanese economy in front of parliament,” writes Alex Frangos. “He called for international help to contain the yen’s advance.” According to Frangos, the yen is nearly 20% stronger than it was in August 2008 compared to an inflation-adjusted basket of currencies weighted towards Japan’s largest trade partners.

Reversing Course?

Identifying a primary cause of the yen’s resurgence is a challenging task. While interest rates in Japan are near zero, record low rates elsewhere provide little incentive for investors to switch to other currencies. Moreover, a new tax law is encouraging Japanese corporations to repatriate foreign earnings, and is expected to result in companies bringing nearly $5.5 billion home in March.

Despite the government’s inability to suppress the Japanese currency in recent months, signs that the yen may be due for a reversal are beginning to emerge. The Bank of Japan will reportedly increase the money supply at its meeting this week, a step that could help to fight deflation. More importantly perhaps is the potential return of the carry trade, the practice of borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies. Australia has already begun raising interest rates, and expectations for a rate hike in the U.S. at some point this year have jumped in recent weeks. Numbers from the Tokyo Stock Exchange indicate that investors are betting on a slide in the yen.

Yen ETF Options

For investors looking to take either a long or short position in the yen, there are a number of options available.

  • CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY): This ETF is designed to track the performance of the Japanese yen, and is structured as a equitized single currency trust. As shown below, FXY has been relatively volatile in recent months as Japanese officials have stepped up their efforts to hold the currency in check.

click to enlarge

  • WisdomTree Dreyfus Japanese Yen Fund (JYF): While currency ETF products from WisdomTree and Rydex will generally exhibit strong correlations, there are some key differences between these funds that may impact effective tax rates and exposure to credit risk. JYF is up nearly 8% over the last year, including a 3% gain so far in 2010.

  • ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS): This ETF has slipped in 2010 as the yen has shown strength, but could be an interesting play for investors convinced that the government’s efforts to suppress the currency will ultimately be successful. It should be noted that YCS seeks to deliver leveraged results on a daily basis, meaning that regular monitoring and rebalancing may be required if holding over an extended period of time.

Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.

Today’s Best Investment

Don’t go overboard chasing today’s best investment. In 2009 stocks and gold were at the top of the hit parade. In 2010 they may not even be good investments. In your search for the best investment stand back and take a good look at the landscape. Soon it’s likely to change so pay attention, especially if you are a new investor.

When 2009 began your best investment might have taken the form of doing all you could to keep your job and mortgage afloat. In March the stock market ignited and skyrocketed 60% in a matter of months. And once again gold was being touted as the world’s best investment.

As a new year approaches investors need to reflect on the past when looking forward; and especially the new investor needs to ask questions. Why were stocks and gold such good investments? Will the trends continue, and what could happen that might turn things around? The year 2009 was unique.

Money was cheap and the dollar weakened significantly vs. other major currencies. Investors couldn’t earn significant interest on safe investments. Profits were enhanced for major U.S. corporations doing business abroad as earnings were translated from foreign currencies to dollars. The price of gold rose on the back of the weak dollar, since its price is quoted in dollars per ounce.

Both gold and the stock market were good investments, at least in part due to a falling dollar. Investors were relieved when it appeared that the worst of the financial crisis was over, so they took cheap dollars and bought riskier investments pushing the stock market and gold prices higher. After all, the safest investment in the world (the U.S. T-bill) was paying much less than 1%.

It is unusual when the stock market goes up over 50% in a matter of months; and unusual when gold soars at the same time. It is also unlikely, in my opinion that both trends continue throughout next year. Stocks could be derailed by rising interest rates, a weaker than anticipated economy, lower corporate profits and/or a relapse of financial crisis.

Gold is being advertised as the best investment in the world, again. The new investor might not realize it, but this has happened more than a couple of times since the early 1970’s. The upward trend in this precious metal has never had staying power. A stronger economy and dollar could take the floor out from under all that glitters.

One thing won’t change next year. Your best investment will be a balanced portfolio of good investments coupled with a sound investment strategy. Instead of chasing this year’s best investment categories, lighten up on them… rebalance your portfolio.

A retired financial planner, James Leitz has an MBA (finance) and 35 years of investing experience. For 20 years he advised individual investors, working directly with them helping them to reach their financial goals.

Jim is the author of a complete investor guide, Invest Informed, designed for average investors or would-be investors of all levels of financial background and experience. To learn more about investments and investing and his new financial guide go to http://www.investinformed.com.

The Best Retail REITs of 2011

As we approach the end of a tumultuous 2011, it's time to look back at the biggest winners and losers of the year.

So in this series, that's exactly what we're doing, sector by sector. Today, let's take a look at the biggest winners in the retail REIT sector. First, the backstory, then the results.

The backstory
This year, we saw U.S. Treasuries get downgraded from AAA status while Congress played politics instead of fixing the budget; a domestic economy that has been recovering from its financial crisis in fits and starts; big trouble in Europe; and a Chinese economy that doesn't seem so bulletproof.

The daily volatility in the financial industry has been tremendous, but REITs haven't been swinging around as wildly as banks. Part of that is because European debt fears have been manifesting in bank stock volatility, but REITs have also been less volatile because of the dividend yields that are a hallmark of the sector. This is because a REIT has to pay out 90% of its taxable income in order to keep its favorable tax status.

Another thing to keep in mind with REITs is that most are heavily leveraged. As a result, any change in the Fed's actions to keep interest rates low could hurt future debt refinancings.

The best retail REIT stocks of 2011
For context, the S&P 500 has returned 1.3% after dividends this year. In other words, the market has been basically flat.

REIT

2011 Dividend-Adjusted Return

Price-to-Tangible Book Value

Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG  ) 33.7% 8.2
Taubman Centers (NYSE: TCO  ) 26.9% NM
Federal Realty Investment Trust (NYSE: FRT  ) 20.9% 4.5
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (NYSE: SKT  ) 18.0% 5.5
Acadia Realty Trust (NYSE: AKR  ) 12.9% 2.5
Glimcher Realty Trust (NYSE: GRT  ) 12.7% 6.0
Macerich (NYSE: MAC  ) 10.8% 2.5

Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful.

In a tough economy, these retail REITs have given investors solid returns above their dividend yields, which range from 2.7% to 4.3%. Unlike many of their peers recently, these REITs have seen investors willing to pay goodly premiums to tangible book value for them (Taubman's price-to-tangible book value isn't meaningful because it has negative book value).

As you look at this list for investing ideas, remember that big dividends don't guarantee big returns, and make sure that the premiums are worth it.

If you're looking for other dividend-producing opportunities in the financial space, let me leave you with a regional bank that has some of the best operational numbers I've ever seen. I wrote about it in our brand-new free report: "The Stocks Only the Smartest Investors Are Buying." I invite you to take a free copy. Just click here to find out the name of the bank I believe Buffett would be interested in if he could still invest in small banks.

Top Stocks For 6/4/2012-9

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (CRWE)

CRWE’s selection of CoreLink reflects recent diversification beyond CRWE’s original charter as a provider of services and knowledge to small business owners taking their own companies public. In addition to these services, CRWE has transitioned into a multifaceted media organization that publishes clients’ news online; sells advertising adjacent with its digital network targeted at a high-income audience; designs, hosts and maintains websites; produces marketing videos from concept to final product; crafts press releases and articles for maximum SEO; develops email campaigns; and forges branding campaigns to bolster client company images.

CRWE’s digital network is designed, on behalf of its clients, to bring together targeted high-income audiences and advertisers on its financial websites that include, among others, DrStockPick.com, PennyOmega.com, BestOtc.com, CRWEFinance.com, CRWESelect.com, CRWEPicks.com and StockHotTips.com.

Whilst there are many benefits for consumers shopping online, business that start their operations or transfer their operations online greatly benefit from doing so. The internet allows businesses to analyse their competitor’s online strategy. A firm can keep abreast of new products that are released, react to price changes, or use the internet to discover secondary data on their competitors. The internet allows a firm to react quickly to a change in their competitor’s strategy, and try to provide a service that allows them to match or beat their competitors. One of the major benefits of setting up or moving a business online is the cost advantages of doing so. A firm can save a number of costs. As consumers pay for the product before it is dispatched, this improves the cash flow for the company, making sure for the firm that they can pay their suppliers and other costs on time.

Crown Equity Holdings Inc., together with its digital network, currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing, which brings together targeted audiences and advertisers. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

For more information, please visit their website: http://www.crownequityholdings.com

Aruba Networks, Inc. (Nasdaq:ARUN) announced the ArubaEdge Partner Program. The program will foster, certify and promote end-to-end mobility solutions from an ecosystem of technology partners leveraging the Aruba Mobile Virtual Enterprise (MOVE) architecture. The ecosystem is comprised of top-tier suppliers that share a forward-looking vision of secure mobility, a commitment to customer service and a focus on device interoperability. ArubaEdge Certified Partners’ products are tested and validated to reliably interoperate with Aruba’s secure mobility infrastructure. Certified partners utilize a standardized certification process to quickly and rigorously check device performance results against a reference standard to ensure interoperability. Interoperable configurations are documented and supported by both Aruba’s and the partners’ support organizations.

Aruba Networks, Inc. provides distributed enterprise networks that securely connect local and remote users to corporate information technology resources worldwide. Its product line comprises ArubaOS that integrates user based security, application-aware RF services, and wireless LAN access to deliver the mobile networking solution for large and mid-sized enterprises; software modules for ArubaOS; mobility controllers for the operation of secure mobility solutions; and access points, which serve as on-ramps that aggregate user traffic onto the enterprise network and direct this traffic to mobility controllers.

Intersil Corporation (Nasdaq:ISIL) announced a new fisheye image correction technology, developed by the Intersil Techwell product group. This proprietary technology provides real-time correction of distorted video images generated by a fisheye lens’ ultra-wide field of view, and delivers corrected images in a normalized rectangular output. This new technology integrates a high definition Image Signal Processor (ISP), delivering a single HD resolution video output and up to four standard definition video outputs. The technology is compatible with all types of fisheye lenses and enables a single fisheye camera to replace four existing cameras. In automotive applications, the technology enables a wide angle, panoramic camera to provide a viewing angle up to 180 degrees.

Intersil Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of analog integrated circuits (ICs). The company offers a range of application specific standard products and general purpose proprietary products for consumer, industrial, computing, and communications markets.

Power-One Inc. (Nasdaq:PWER) announced the launch of its redesigned AURORA UNO-2.0 single phase string inverter. The new-look 2.0kW inverter is Power-One’s smallest residential inverter and is an excellent choice for the average roof top installation. A new design and new features, such as a special built-in heat sink compartment and a front panel user interface, are only some of the benefits the new device offers. Moreover, the UNO-2.0 is packed with Power-One’s proven high performing technology and offers a high speed and precise MPPT, as well as an efficiency rating of 96.3 percent. The wide input voltage range makes the inverter suitable to low power installations with reduced string size.

Power-One, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets power conversion and power management solutions for the renewable energy, communications infrastructure, and other high technology markets.

The Best Low Risk Investments

Before you can go on to make your millions, there are two key things you need to consider in order to keep more of your hard earned money. There is a reason professional athletes and lottery winners lose ALL their money within two years. They fail to understand two simple concepts.

I like to teach my students that it is possible to make money without money, although most people you know probably told you otherwise. I’m sure whenever you asked someone about investing, you were told to put your money in the stock market, and just leave it there until you are ready to retire. This is the OLD way, and that is not the way I do it. Investing is very important, and making passive income is even more important.

But even more important than passive income are these low risk investments.

Investment 1 – Debt Elimination

Not quite what you expected huh? This is probably one of the easiest ways to put some money into your pocket. Why would you be happy about making 2% per year in a CD when you are making minimum payments on a credit card that carries an annual interest rate of 19%?

The money you are paying to banks is a lot more than what the bank is paying you to keep your money locked up in a CD for 2-3 years.

Make eliminating debt a top priority and more importantly pay off those high interest rate credit cards or transfer the balances to a card with a lower interest rate.

What you save in monthly payments on credit cards you can then use to invest for passive income and lower your overall cost of living.

Investment 2 – Furthering Your Education

Another really important investment that is low risk is educating yourself. I’m sure you are well aware that the more educated people make the most money. Think Engineers, Lawyers, Doctors, Astronauts, etc.

Not everyone can be the next Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Kobe Bryant, or Eminem. You will need knowledge on “something” if you really want to be successful in life.

In the world we live in today it is quite possible to achieve success without going to a 2yr or 4yr college. You can educate yourself on many things by learning at your own pace, and possibly getting some certifications.

Years ago, I did an internship when I was in college and I met a college dropout who was making over $150,000 per year because he studied on his own and got some IT certifications.

If you think out of the box, you will be surprised at the possibilities.

I know you were probably looking for the magic secrets to impossible wealth, well, that’s in the other article I wrote. This article is about two very basic but VERY critical investments you need to have a good foundation for wealth building.

I have been investing for over a decade and have done meticulous research on how to build wealth. My primary focus is on strategies that can create low risk residual streams of income.

Not only do I personally practice the methods I write about, I have also coached many others in these methods to show them (and to show myself) how easy it is to make money with passive residual streams of income. You can read more about my best strategies at http://bestresidualincomestrategies.com/

Yelp Files for $100 Million IPO

Local reviews site Yelp on Thursday filed for an initial public offering, hoping to raise $100 million.

Yelp, which is not profitable, generated $58.4 million in net revenue for the first nine months of 2011, up 80% from the same period last year. Revenue grew to $48 million in 2011, up from $26 million from the year prior.

See if (GRPN) is in our portfolio

The company is likely trying to capitalize on strong demand for Internet offerings in the last few months. Deals site Groupon(GRPN) saw its stock surge 40% on its first day of trading earlier this month, as did fellow review site Angie's List(ANGI) during its Nasdaq debut on Thursday. Around 61 million unique visitors use the Yelp Web site and its mobile application is used on more than 5 million unique devices. Yelp is looking to trade under the ticker "YELP" though it didn't specify an exchange on its S-1. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

Friday, November 2, 2012

Solar Companies Poised to Benefit From End of Tightening in China

A signal China sent out on the weekend is that inflation has been well under control and monetary tightening will be eased after inflation peaks in June. Bears have been waiting for China's economy's hard landing, and the stocks are priced in for a hard landing as well.

But a new phase of growth is expected in the second half of 2011. New industries are focused on the country's 12th five-year plan, such as new energy, military industry, and the environmental remediation industry. As a result, commodities will unlikely become hot investments again this time, because the new industries need less steel, iron ore, and coal. Instead, new technologies will be the investment darling. The previously high-flying companies such as Cliff Natural Resource(CLF), Alpha Natural Resource (ANR), and Teck Resources (TCK), are not likely to experience the same growth again.

Investors will definitely look to invest in renewable energy for the next few years, as China alone has invested over $100B to nurture the new industry. Many solar energy companies have received billions in credit lines from major Chinese banks to develop projects worldwide -- no doubt benefiting China and countries that wants to adopt renewable energy.

Currently, world class solar companies include First Solar (FSLR), LDK Solar (LDK), Hanwha Solarone (HSOL), Suntech (STP), JA Solar (JASO), Trina Solar (TSL), Jinko Solar (JKS), Sunpower (SPWRA), Q-cell (QCLSF.PK) and Sharp(SHCAF.PK). The low cost and high quality solar PV makers are mainly located in China or Asia. The following charts indicate why it's not difficult to find stocks priced in China's hard landing, while valuation is cheap in the solar space (data from Yahoo Finance and Google Finance):

1. LDK Solar

2. First Solar


LDK Solar currently is trading at trailing P/E 2.2, while FSLR's trading at P/E 18; the low valuation of P/E 2.2 is priced in the hard landing of China's economy because high and new growth industries deserve higher P/E. While assuming FSLR is trading at fair value, LDK should definitely be valued at a much higher price.

Disclosure: I am long FSLR.

Industry Ranks: Red and Green Zones for Changing Your Portfolio

(Click chart to enlarge)

I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis.

My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the question, “Where are trends under-discounted?” Price momentum tends to persist, but look for areas where it might be even better in the near term.

If you are a value player, look at the green zone, and ask where trends are over-discounted. Yes, things are bad, but are they all that bad? Perhaps the is room for mean reversion.

My candidates from both categories are in the column labeled “Dig through.”

If you use any of this, choose what you use off of your own trading style. If you trade frequently, stay in the red zone. Trading infrequently, play in the green zone — don’t look for momentum, look for mean reversion.

Whatever you do, be consistent in your methods regarding momentum/mean-reversion, and only change methods if your current method is working well.

Huh? Why change if things are working well? I’m not saying to change if things are working well. I’m saying don’t change if things are working badly. Price momentum and mean-reversion are cyclical, and we tend to make changes at the worst possible moments, just before the pattern changes. Maximum pain drives changes for most people, which is why average investors don’t make much money.

Maximum pleasure when things are going right leaves investors fat, dumb, and happy — no one thinks of changing then. This is why a disciplined approach that forces changes on a portfolio is useful, as I do 3-4 times a year. It forces me to be bloodless and sell stocks with less potential for those wth more potential over the next 1-5 years.

I still like energy names here, utilities, and reinsurers, particularly those that are strongly capitalized. I’m not concerned about hurricanes for the strongly capitalized; they will be around to benefit from the increase in pricing power after any set of hurricanes.

I’m looking for undervalued and stable industries. Human resources — sure, more part time workers. Healthcare information? A growing field, even with the new “health bill.” Same for Biotech.

Even in a double dip, toiletries will still be purchased. Phone calls will still be made, and the internet will still be accessed. Perhaps life insurers are worth a look here; after all, the Bush tax cuts are expiring, and there will be more demand for tax avoidance.

I’m not saying that there is always a bull market out there, and I will find it for you. But there are places that are relatively better, and I have done relatively well in finding them.

At present, I am trying to be defensive. I don’t have a lot of faith in the market as a whole, so I am biased toward the green zone, looking for mean-reversion, rather than momentum persisting. The red zone is more highly cyclical than I have seen in quite a while. I will be very happy hanging out in dull stocks for a while.

Best Stocks To Invest In 2012-1-8-1

SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif., and HELLERUP, Denmark, Dec. 12, 2011 (CRWENewswire) — OXiGENE, Inc. (Nasdaq:OXGN), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutics to treat cancer and eye diseases, and Azanta Danmark A/S, a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on oncology, women’s health and addiction medicine, have established a partnership agreement to provide access to ZYBRESTAT for the treatment of patients in Europe and Canada with anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) on a compassionate use basis. OXiGENE’s newly-formed Named Patient Program (NPP), to be managed by Azanta, provides a regulatory mechanism to allow healthcare professionals in Europe and Canada to prescribe ZYBRESTAT to individual ATC patients while it is still in development.

Under the terms of the agreement, OXiGENE will provide ZYBRESTAT to Azanta. Azanta will serve as exclusive distributor for ZYBRESTAT in the specified territory for this purpose and will provide ZYBRESTAT to physicians solely to treat ATC on a compassionate use basis in the territory covered by the agreement until such time as ZYBRESTAT may obtain marketing approval in that territory. The territory includes the European Union, including the Nordic countries and Switzerland, and Canada, and the agreement may also be expanded to include other countries on a country-by-country basis. OXiGENE and Azanta will cooperate on regulatory activities relating to ZYBRESTAT for the treatment of ATC within the territory. There will be no transfer of ownership of intellectual property rights for ZYBRESTAT to Azanta under the terms of the agreement.

Commented Peter J. Langecker, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer of OXiGENE: “This agreement represents a critical milestone in the ongoing development of ZYBRESTAT, reflecting OXiGENE’s commitment to facilitate access to this potentially valuable therapy by ATC patients who have no other treatment options. We are delighted to work in partnership with Azanta, a privately held European specialty pharmaceutical company with specialized technical and regulatory expertise in implementing compassionate use programs. While Azanta focuses on our Named Patient Program, we will continue to pursue a global regulatory strategy for ZYBRESTAT in ATC, including seeking additional financing for the FACT 2 study, with the goal of initiating this pivotal trial in 2012.”

Commented Claus Moeller, Chief Executive Officer of Azanta: “Partnering with OXiGENE to distribute ZYBRESTAT to European and Canadian ATC patients under appropriate regulatory auspices reflects our strategy to build industry leadership by making innovative developmental therapies available to patients in international markets. We believe that ZYBRESTAT has generated an impressive body of safety and activity data, with a suggested survival benefit in ATC, and has significant therapeutic and commercial potential. We are pleased to make our distribution and regulatory expertise available to help advance this promising therapeutic option, and we look forward to a productive collaboration.”

About ZYBRESTAT

OXiGENE believes that ZYBRESTAT is poised to become an important therapeutic option in a novel class of small-molecule drug candidates called vascular disrupting agents. Through interaction with vascular endothelial cell cytoskeletal proteins, ZYBRESTAT selectively targets and collapses tumor vasculature, thereby depriving the tumor of oxygen and causing death of tumor cells. In clinical trials in solid tumors, ZYBRESTAT has shown potent and selective activity against tumor vasculature, as well as possible clinical activity against anaplastic thyroid cancer, ovarian cancer and various other solid tumors.

About OXiGENE

OXiGENE is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutics to treat cancer and eye diseases. The Company’s major focus is developing vascular disrupting agents that selectively disrupt abnormal blood vessels associated with solid tumor progression and visual impairment. OXiGENE is dedicated to leveraging its intellectual property and therapeutic development expertise to bring life-extending and life-enhancing medicines to patients.

About Azanta

Azanta A/S is a specialty pharma company primarily operating within oncology, women’s health and addiction medicine. The vision of Azanta A/S is to become an international market leader within specialty pharma products and innovative pharmaceutical concepts. Azanta A/S currently markets or makes available nine specialty pharma products in the Nordic region and in the U.K., including Nimoral, a hypoxic radiosensitizer for the treatment of head and neck cancer patients undergoing primary radiotherapy. In addition, Azanta A/S has a portfolio of low risk development projects which are planned to be commercialized within the next two to three years.

Safe Harbor Statement

This news release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any or all of the forward-looking statements in this press release, which include possible outcomes of clinical studies involving ZYBRESTAT, interest among potential partners or regulatory filings and outcomes, may turn out to be wrong. Forward-looking statements can be affected by inaccurate assumptions OXiGENE might make or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the outcome of clinical studies and the availability of additional financing to continue development of ZYBRESTAT. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in OXiGENE’s reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission, including OXiGENE’s reports on Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K. However, OXiGENE undertakes no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events or otherwise. Please refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010.

Contact:

Investor and Media Contact:
ir@oxigene.com
650-635-7000

Source: OXiGENE, Inc.

THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

Takeover-Target Stocks Near Their 52-week Lows

Jimmy Rogers, the legendary hedge fund trader and billionaire, said he waits patiently until something he wants to buy is so cheap and so "overlooked" that all he has to do is "walk over and pick it up."

There were times when Mr. Rogers' "cheap pickings" were hard to find or weren't quite cheap enough. He's often said in interviews that he had to be extraordinarily patient to find the best opportunities.

Some investors and traders are looking for the obvious. They wish they could look at market volume leaders, which as I write this happen to be Bank of America (BAC) and Sandridge Energy (SD),and buy the ones that would be the most profitable.

As the 16th century English proverb states, " If wishes were horses, beggars would ride." But wishes don't cut it. Careful investigation and time-consuming analysis does when it comes to finding hidden stock market "gems."

Sandridge made quite a splash Thursday (Dec.22) when it announced that it will receive $1 billion for a portion of its interest in oil acreage in western Kansas.

It is starting a joint venture with Spanish energy company Repsol YPF (REPYY.PK). The deal includes Repsol getting a 25 percent interest in one spread of land controlled by SandRidge and a 16 percent interest in another.

If you had owned shares of SD before the announcement, and you happened to be fortunate enough to buy it when nobody seemed to want it on the October 4, 2011, intraday low price of $4.55 per share, you could have sold it today, Dec.23, 2011, for nearly a 100% profit at $9.

So the key to finding either takeover-target stocks or the next Sandridge Energy, is to look where few are looking and buy some companies that haveintrinsic value but haven't hit the big trading desks' "radar screen."

Today's Super-Cheap Stocks that may be Tomorrow's Takeover Stocks

At the present time, many of those kinds of companies are found specifically in the silver producing area of the basic materials sector.

Companies like Hecla Mining (HL), Silvercorp Metals (SVM) and Alexco Resources (AXU) are current examples.

Some, like China-based Silvercorp, have some nasty problems to overcome. SVM has been the target of rumors alleging that it has reported earnings fraudulently, which the company has adamantly denied.

Those who have been spreading the rumors are now being investigated by the Chinese government for false reporting and fraud.

SVM has recently repurchased over $35 million of its own shares and also increased its dividend by 25%. As you look at the one-year chart, you can see that as recently as the beginning of May 2011 SVM shares were priced around $16.

When a company like SVM has no debt, $177 million in total cash, is reporting 65% operating margins and quarterly earnings growth (year-over-year) of nearly 49%, (assuming these statistics are mostly accurate), even Jimmy Rogers would take notice.

IAMGOLD (IAG) is another "hidden gem" that's bouncing around near the bottom of it's 52-week price range. When you look at the key financial statistics I believe you can see that here's a company that's well worth "walking over and picking up."

IAG recently had good newsthat normally would make for a nice rally, but the entire precious metals production sector has been in a big slump due to worries that the European debt fiasco will cause prices to slump. The experts disagree!

IAMGOLD is a leading mid-tier gold mining company producing approximately one million ounces annually from five gold mines (including current joint ventures) on three continents.

This company is uniquely positioned with a strong financial position and extensive management and operational expertise.

To grow from this strong base, IAMGOLD has a pipeline of development and exploration projects and continues to assess accretive acquisition opportunities.

Its growth plans are strategically focused in West Africa, select countries in South America and regions of Canada. IAMGOLD also operates Niobec, a niobium mine in the Canadian province of Quebec.

This "fire sale" on precious metals producing or exploration companies is widespread. It even includes some of the best ones like Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), which recently hit a new 52-week low.

AEM owns and produces some valuable mineral properties in Canada, Finland, and Mexico. The company primarily explores for gold, as well as silver, copper, zinc, and lead.

Its flagship property includes the LaRonde mine located in the southern portion of the Abitibi volcanic belt, Canada. The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

AEM has had some tough breaks lately, but it has recently made some accretive acquisitions. AEM is currently selling at less than 12 times next year's earnings and pays almost a 2% dividend to boot. Take a close look at this company's website.

The list of takeover-target stocks near their 52-week lows includes some small ones like Exeter Resource Corp.(XRA), which the analysts at Casey Research carefully evaluated and declared "undervalued."

If XRA were to move back to its 52-week high of $6.50 from its recent low of $2.50, that would be a whopping gain of 160% for those who bought near that low price!

Finally, if you want to read a saga of how speculators can double or even triple their money by investing in these kinds of companies read about Australia's Sundance Resources Ltd (SUDCF.PK).

All of the above mentioned companies are being impacted by end-of-year tax-loss selling on lower-than-normal volume. That historically sets the stage for a nice rebound after the first of the new year.

As the Bloomberg story on Sundance Resources reminds us, if a small company is in the process of being acquired but delays and snags have slowed the process, the price often corrects down and the upside potential soars.

Sundance still expects the deal to close by the end of May 2012. This suggests that traders buying the stock now could gain the biggest payout of any billion-dollar deal in the world, according to data compiled by the Bloomberg article referenced above.

"On an annualized basis, the 65 percent return balloons to 149 percent, the data show."

“You can’t find an investment that can give you such an upside,” said Alick Wong, a quantitative research analyst at Louis Capital Markets in Hong Kong."

Before the 2011 stock-trading year comes to a close, consider these possibilities carefully. Don't overdo it on any one of these companies and spread the risk around if you choose to speculate.

Many people talk about and write about these kinds of amazing potential rewards AFTER the fact.

From my own experiences with buying companies like ATAC Resources (ATADF.PK) back when it was trading for around 40 cents per share, and eventually selling for a 5-fold profit, I know how exciting these situations are.

By the way an excellent article was written lately by Matt Badiali titled "There's a Fire Sale Taking Place in Elite Gold Stocks" that I recommend you read in conjunction with what I've shared with you in this article. It offers more compelling suggestions that deserve some Jimmy Rogers-like consideration.

Disclosure: I am long SVM, AXU, HL, IAG, AEM, XRA.

Is Whole Foods Market a Buffett Stock?

As the world's third-richest person and most celebrated investor, Warren Buffett attracts a lot of attention. Thousands try to glean what they can from his thinking processes and track his investments.

We can't know for sure whether Buffett is about to buy Whole Foods Market (NYSE: WFM  ) -- he hasn't specifically mentioned anything about it to me -- but we can discover whether it's the sort of stock that might interest him. Answering that question could also reveal whether it's a stock that should interest us. In this series, we do just that.

Writing in a recent 10-K, Buffett lays out the qualities he looks for in an investment. In addition to adequate size, proven management, and a reasonable valuation, he demands:

  • Consistent earnings power
  • Good returns on equity with limited or no debt
  • Management in place
  • Simple, non-techno-mumbo-jumbo businesses
  • Does Whole Foods meet Buffett's standards?

    1. Earnings power
    Buffett is famous for betting on a sure thing. For that reason, he likes to see companies with demonstrated earnings stability.

    Let's examine Whole Foods' earnings and free cash flow history:

    Source: S&P Capital IQ.�

    Whole Foods' earnings have increased considerably over the years. Its free cash flow has fluctuated a bit depending on how much the company has been investing in new and existing stores.

    2. Return on equity and debt
    Return on equity is a great metric for measuring both management's effectiveness and the strength of a company's competitive advantage or disadvantage -- a classic Buffett consideration. When considering return on equity, it's important to make sure a company doesn't have an enormous debt burden, because that will skew your calculations and make the company look much more efficient than it is.

    Whole Foods generated a return on equity of 13%, or 11% on average over the past five years. That's not enormous in the grand scheme of things, but it's fairly impressive for a grocer and for the fact that the company carries almost no debt. (Safeway, for instance, generates slightly smaller returns on equity while carrying a debt-to-equity ratio of 147%).

    3. Management
    CEO John Mackey has been at the job since he co-founded Safer Way, which would eventually become Whole Foods, in 1978. In 2010, he was joined by Walter Robb, Whole Foods' former chief operating officer, as co-CEO.

    4. Business
    The grocery business isn't particularly susceptible to wholesale technological disruption.

    The Foolish conclusion
    So is Whole Foods a Buffett stock? Perhaps. Although Whole Foods' return on equity may not be enormous on an absolute basis, it's impressive in context. The company also exhibits several of the other quintessential characteristics of a Buffett investment: consistent or growing earnings, tenured management, and a technologically straightforward business.

    If you're interested in another promising retailer that our top analysts and chief investment officer picked to beat the market, you can check out The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2012. I invite you to download this special report�for a limited time by clicking here -- it's free.

    Top Stocks For 5/7/2012-8

    _________________________________________

    FREE Daily Stock Alerts From DrStockPick.com

    _________________________________________

    Monday Dec. 7, 2009

    DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

    HZHI, Horizon Health International Corp., HZHI.PK

    HZHI through its US and Canadian Subsidiaries is servicing all of North America through its E-Commerce System, providing services as a �Home, Office and Workplace Medical Equipment Specialist� offering a complete end-to-end shopping experience for aids for daily living, disability products, ergonomic solutions and leading-edge assistive technology through online retail stores across North America.

    HZHI entered into an agreement with Exmovere Holdings for the exclusive rights to market the �Chariot� and the �Telepath� in Canada on Nov. 20, 2009.

    �The Chariot� is a mobility device that can be implemented by millions of people suffering from mobility problems. It is the only, truly hands free, self-balancing vehicle. It also serves as a unique platform for integrating vital sign, emotion monitoring and environmental sensors for hospitals, military and hazardous materials workers. It is a new wearable device that will help people with physical challenges to get around.

    �The Telepath� is the world�s first and only Zigbee biosensor wristwatch that uses infrared sensors to detect heart rate without a chest strap, 3-d accelerometers to model human movement, and a variety of metallic sensors to detect skin temperature and skin conductance. The Telepath transmits these data via computer or cell phone to online data centers, care givers and/or emergency services.

    The market for mobility devices is extremely large; in 2008, Canada exported US$4.2 million worth of mechanically propelled wheelchairs and mobility scooters. That number represents a 114.1% gain over the $1.9 billion in powered mobility aids sold 4 years earlier in 2004. Canadians imported $24.1 million worth of power wheelchairs and mobility scooters last year. Canada imported almost $20 million more in battery-assisted mobility imports than it shipped as exported goods.

    HZHI and Exmovere Holdings Inc. will be conducting demonstrations of the �Chariot� and the �Telepath� (a BioSensor Wristwatch) to the Investment Community in Canada, commencing in January 2010.

    The door is Opening to Enter the Multi Million Dollar Mobility Aid and BioSensor Products Market for HZHI

    Contacts:
    Horizon Health International Corp.
    Delbert G. Blewett
    President
    604-998-3385
    horizonhealth@shaw.ca
    www.Horizonhealthandsafety.com

    Add HZHI to your Watch List!, do your homework, and like always BE READY for the ACTION!

    S&P, Dow wrap up best January in 21st century

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- January offered up an apology to discouraged investors.

    Unlike 2011, when markets spiked and sunk several hundred points each day but ultimately closed out the year relatively flat, all three indexes mostly climbed higher throughout the month with occasional dips.

    The Nasdaq climbed 8% in January and the S&P 500 and Dow each added 3.4% and 4.4%. Absent, so far in 2012, are the heart wrenching daily drops and pops in stocks.

    Even with a choppy trading day Tuesday, it was the best January for the S&P and Dow since 1997 and since 2001 for the Nasdaq.

    Facebook: Bankers trade fees for bragging rights

    U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range Tuesday, after worse-than-expected U.S. housing and manufacturing data tempered the modest enthusiasm over Europe's progress on a new fiscal pact.

    The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) slid 21 points, or 0.2%.The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 0.6 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq added 2 points, or or 0.1%.

    Investors parsed through a mixed bag of earnings from Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), UPS (UPS, Fortune 500), Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) and Mattell (MAT, Fortune 500). But weak reads on Midwest manufacturing and home prices were the main drivers pushing the market down from an initial boost.

    Stocks got an early boost after European Union leaders agreed Monday to strengthen a financial firewall and most members of the 27-nation group will sign a new fiscal compact. But the first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece.

    Without a deal with private-sector creditors, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds, and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that's due March 20.

    "There's positive news coming out of Europe, but it's still very tenuous with Greece," said Jeffrey Phillips, chief investment officer of Rehmann Financial. "Every time we see something positive there, we seem to see it reverse in four or five days."

    EU leaders back fiscal pact, bigger firewall

    U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground Monday afternoon.

    World markets: European stocks closed posting solid gains. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 0.8%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 1.1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) climbed 1.5%.

    Meanwhile, Asian markets ended modestly higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) ticked up 0.3%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 1.1% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 0.1%.

    Economy: The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed home prices dropped 1.3% month-over-month in November.

    Later in the day, the January edition of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is set for release, as is the Congressional Budget Office's 10-year budget and economic outlook.

    The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to hit 67 in January, up from 64.5 in the month prior, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com.

    Companies: RadioShack (RSH, Fortune 500) shares plunged 29%, after the electronics retailer warned late Monday that its fourth quarter earnings will fall far short of expectations.

    Exxon Mobil shares dropped 2%, after the oil giant reported its quarterly earnings climbed to $9.4 billion on revenue of $121.6 billion.

    Mattel shares closed up 1.3%, after the toymaker beat Wall Street estimates on quarterly earnings and raised its annual dividend 35%. Worldwide sales of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels and American Girl toys posted solid gains, although revenue overall fell short of analysts' expectations.

    Mattel's top competitor, Hasbro (HAS), will release its corporate results Monday.

    Pfizer was hurt in the fourth quarter by the loss of its patent for Lipitor, a drug for treating high cholesterol. The drug maker beat Wall Street expectations on earnings and revenue, but its shares slide 1.3%

    UPS shares dropped 0.9%, even though the courier beat forecasts on earnings but fell short on revenue. In a statement, Kurt Kuehn, UPS's chief financial officer, said the company expects 2012 to bring "mixed economic growth around the world."

    Online retailer Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) reported results after the bell Tuesday, missing analysts' estimates on revenues but beating profit expectations. Shares dropped nearly 9% in trading after the close.

    Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but gained versus the Japanese yen.

    Oil for March delivery dropped 37 cents to $98.39 a barrel.

    Gold futures for April delivery rose $7.40 to $1,740.40 an ounce.

    Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved higher, pushing the yield down to 1.80% from 1.84% late Monday.  

    Powerful Short-term Rally Ahead

    Editor’s Note: Sam Collins will be on vacation�through June 25. Filling in for him�are two other top technical analysts, Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis.

    A little foreign tailwind appears ready to blow in the market’s favor today with the news that the Chinese central bank announced plans to loosen the yuan’s de-facto peg to the U.S. dollar. The news should help to provide the market some additional juice as this action has been long-pressured by the United States.

    In addition, the euro appears to be gaining a little relative strength lately. As with other analysts, we were concerned with the euro’s continued weakness as it was a sign that investors weren’t willing to move beyond the sovereign debt issues that had clouded the market more than a month ago. The latest strengthening in the euro shows some willingness of the market to begin rebuilding after the shockwaves that were created by the European debt crisis.

    Back home, we’re excited to see the week’s trading begin, as our outlook remains relatively bullish. You’ll recall that, on Friday, we spoke about the large amounts of overhead call open interest that was set to expire. As we predicted, the market saw little to no volatility on Friday, as the overhead call open interest kept a cap on any rally potential.

    We will say, though, that we were off by 27 cents on our forecast for the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) shares to end the day’s trading at $112. You have to admit that it was uncanny the way that the SPY traded above $112, only to be instantly sold back below the strike. Like we said, there’s a reason we watch the open interest data closely.

    With the overhead call open interest out of the way until July’s expiration, which is four weeks away, we expect that this market will flex its muscles this week. We’re forecasting the S&P 500 (SPX) to make an advance to the 1,150 level this week, providing even more reason for investors to start believing in the latest bottom and thus moving more capital back into equities.

    In addition to the technical strength, the fact that earnings season is less than a month away will start to entice investors to move back into stocks. Last quarter’s positive results were enough to get investor’s attention. We expect that most investors will want to be in the market as the season approaches, instead of on the sidelines in cash.

    Finally, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has broken below the 30 level that we have been identifying as a must for stocks to start another climb. The chart below indicates the range that we expect the VIX to trade within over the next month or so. The bottom of this range is captured by the 17.5 mark.

    Our expectations are that the unwinding of the negative sentiment that is indicated by the latest highs in the fear index will help move the SPX and other benchmark indices toward the top of their 2010 ranges, providing the bulls with a powerful short-term rally.

    Double Your Money on the Rumor AND the News
    Learn how to cut through the rumor and manipulation surrounding corporate earnings announcements and bank money-doubling option trades all year long. Download our FREE trading guide here.

    Wash, Rinse, Repeat?

    Wow! The market's ups and downs are getting more violent and the time frame of the moves is getting more compressed. When I wrote last Monday that the markets looked a little overbought and that it was maybe time for a little pullback (see Time for one step back?), I never expected the severity and speed of the downdraft.

    On Wednesday, I had remarked to a friend that things looked a little overdone in Europe. The sense of panic was evident. 17 leading economists publicly warned that Europe was sleepwalking toward disaster. Tim Duy, whom I regarded as relatively level-headed, rhetorically asked if there is even a panic button in Europe. Little did I know Draghi's pledge to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro was imminent. Nor did I expect that we would move from a short-term oversold condition Wednesday on one of my trading models to a near-overbought reading by the close Friday.

    Up, up and away?
    The bulls were encouraged Friday when the SPX staged an upside breakout past a key level of technical resistance on decent volume. Does this mean that the bull and bear tug of war is over and the bulls have won?

    Not just yet. When I reviewed some of my secondary indicators on the weekend, they hadn't quite confirmed the bullish breakout staged by the SPX. Consider, for example, the relative returns of SPY vs. TLT (US long Treasury ETF) as an indicator of the risk-on vs. risk-off trade. As of Friday's close, this relative return ratio remains in a trading range and has not confirmed the bullish equity breakout.

    The same non-confirmation can be found in the relative performance of defensive sectors, such as Consumer Staples against the market. As of Friday's close, Consumer Staples remain above a relative support level and has not broken down, which would indicate that the bulls had taken control of the stock market. Similarly, the relative performance of Utilities (not shown) also shows a similar pattern of holding up above relative support.

    Moving across the Atlantic, where ECB chief Mario Draghi sparked the risk-on rally, the chart of the Euro STOXX 50 is still struggling to rise above resistance. In addition, while the yields on Spanish and Italian bonds have fallen, they have not fallen sufficiently for me to wave the all-clear signal.

    More of the step-forward, step-back shuffle?
    I wrote several weeks ago that we remain in a choppy market and I am waiting for some definitive signs of either strength or weakness before I would want to make a directional call (see Waiting for direction). While the bulls won a battle Thursday and Friday, they haven't won a decisive victory yet. To be sure, there are good reasons to be relatively sanguine about the outlook. China seems to be turning around, as evidenced by the better than expected HSBC flash PMI last week; Mario Draghi has taken the risk of Eurogeddon off the table, as least for now; and the American economy appears to be stabilizing, or at least it's not going over a cliff.

    Even though I am cautiously optimistic about the stock market, my official vote in the Ticker Sense blogger poll remains neutral. Until I see some signs that the bulls can break through and take control, my base case remains that of a market dancing the step-forward and step-back shuffle, though I may be tactically inclined to either increase or reduce my portfolio beta. Wash, rinse and repeat.

    Disclaimer: Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

    None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

    Thursday, November 1, 2012

    Karen Beseth is all about energy conservation. She shuts off the lights when leaving the room and sets the thermostat at 67 degrees through her small town's blustery winters. But there's one concession the DeWitt, N.Y., insurance consultant won't make -- she loves her incandescent lightbulbs. No surprise then that in advance of the federal phaseout of traditional bulbs starting Jan. 1, she's stocking up. Her garage and basement shelves are filled with 100-watt four-packs. "There's just some things we put our foot down on," she says.

    More From Anne Kadet
    • The Nightmare Before Christmas: Shopping
    • Amazon Prime Made Me A Shopping Machine
    • Insurance for Everything

    Polls show that many Americans aren't even aware of the pending ban, but 13 percent say they are hoarding to prepare for a time when the 134-year-old technology joins heroin and sea-turtle meat in the banned-products pantheon. Home Depot, which supplies nearly a third of the bulbs that plug into the nation's 4 billion light sockets, says that as 2011 drew to a close, incandescent sales jumped.

    Experts like Bill Hamilton, Home Depot's merchandising VP for electrical, say alternatives to incandescents have vastly improved -- light quality is up, and prices are falling fast. But not everyone's convinced. I just tried replacing the incandescent bulb on my nightstand lamp, and the results weren't pretty. The $3.50 halogen bulb was decent, but halogens don't save many watts. LEDs use 80 percent less energy, but the $40 bulb was dim and the angular device looked clunky in my lamp. The real shocker was the $6.50 compact fluorescent. Its thin, cold glow gave my bedroom the look and feel of a state-run psych ward (don't ask me how I know this). Even my dog looked sickly.

    Of course, for many folks, the objection to the bulb ban goes beyond aesthetics. Bulbs.com CEO Mike Connors says most of his business clients, like hotels, happily embraced the new technology -- they love the savings. The hoarders are often consumers with a political agenda: They don't like the government dictating choices. "There's a combative feeling," he says.

    In the House of Representatives, some Republicans are still hoping to see the ban repealed. And in Texas, the state legislature passed a bill declaring it legal to manufacture and sell incandescent bulbs within state lines -- never mind the fact that there's not a single bulb factory in Texas. "Everyone loves it," says a spokesperson for George Lavender, the representative who wrote the bill.

    This is hardly the first product ban to meet resistance. The Department of Energy recently cracked down on showerhead makers that were circumventing water-flow restrictions with multiple-head systems. On eBay, opportunists sell used '60s-era toilets that offer a "big flush" -- for $700. John Maly, a Colorado intellectual property strategist who uses a high-flush toilet imported from Calgary, Alberta, says he gets several hundred hits a day to his website, FreeExistence.org, which provides instructions on how to install your own commode and jimmy your showerhead to remove the regulator.

    Of course, the lightbulb ban could create new opportunities. In Europe, where the phaseout launched in 2009, retailers that stocked up are making out like bandits. LightBulbs Direct in the U.K. says demand is huge for its stash of 100- and 60-watt bulbs, which sell for about $1.50 -- a fat markup over the pre-ban price of 60 cents or so.

    And in Germany, a genius entrepreneur concocted the ultimate work-around. He's marketing his bulbs as miniature space heaters. Billed as "the best invention since the lightbulb," his "heatballs" sell for around $2.30. Who says government regulation stifles creativity?

    Oversupply Concerns Lead to Potash Downgrade

    By Simon Avery

    Paul D'Amico, an analyst with TD Securities Inc., has cut his rating on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) to “reduce” from “hold,” citing weaker-than-expected demand from China and the stock price’s 20% rise since November.

    He is maintaining his price target of $95 (U.S.). The shares traded down about 1% in Toronto today but up 19 cents in New York at $111.13.

    Mr. D’Amico noted in a report Wednesday that Belarusian Potash Co. has just done a deal to supply China with one million tonnes for 2010 and both price and volume appear to be weak. He expects that there will be excess supply of potash through the first half of next year.

    “Although our long term view remains positive due to agronomic requirements, we view the current stock price of POT as rich and lacking near-term positive catalysts as potential positive earnings surprises appear limited without a strong 2010 China contract,” he wrote.

    Mr. D’Amico has reduced his share profit estimate on Potash Corp. for 2010 to $5.56, down from $8.25. He also set a 2011 estimate of $7.95 a share, reflecting an expected improvement in potash sales volume and pricing.

    Wednesday Apple Rumors: Neil Young Urged Steve Jobs to Develop Hi-Def Digital Audio

    Here are your Apple rumors and AAPL news items for today.

    Steve Jobs Discussed HD Music Format With Neil Young: Speaking with All Things Digital at the D: Dive Into Media event, legendary rock icon Neil Young said that the problem with the modern music industry isn’t the rise of digital distribution but the audio quality of MP3s. The solution, according to Young, is improved, significantly larger digital music files in a different format that could offer the high-definition sound quality common to traditional analog music formats like vinyl records. Steve Jobs, famously a vinyl fan, had discussed the problem with Young before he passed away in October 2011. Jobs was “working on it,” according to Young, but was apparently nowhere near announcing a new audio format to replace the MP3 or even the high-quality lossless audio format supported by iTunes.

    Apple Buying Up HDTV Parts from Big Suppliers: Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster threw more fuel on the Apple HDTV fire on Tuesday, claiming in a note to investors that a “major TV component supplier” told him that Apple is actively shopping for parts. Munster believes that the manufacturer’s statements are strong indicators that Apple will in fact release an HD television set by the end of 2012. Rumors about Apple’s TV kicked into high gear in October after Walter Isaacson’s biography Steve Jobs quoted the late CEO as saying he had “finally cracked” designing an HD television for Apple. Munster, however, originally had indicated that Apple would delay release such a device for significantly longer, suggesting in September 2010, for example, that Apple’s deal with Rovi (NASDAQ:ROVI) confirmed that Apple would sell its own TV by 2014, along with its own content services.

    Kindle Sales Triple as Amazon Earnings Disappoint: You’ve got to spend money to make money. That maxim was painfully borne out for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) when it reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday. The company saw a 57% decline in net income because of a $4.7 billion increase in spending. The company invested heavily in developing and releasing its Kindle Fire tablet computer last fall. Earnings may have missed Wall Street expectations, but Amazon’s strategy worked in terms of establishing itself in Apple’s market. Amazon still refuses to reveal specific sales numbers but the company did say that the Kindle line of products saw a 177% increase in sales and that it sold “millions” of Kindle Fire tablets.

    As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. Follow him on Twitter at�@ajohnagnello�and�become a fan of�InvestorPlace on Facebook. For more from the company, check out our previous�Apple Rumors�stories.

    Supreme Court Ruling On Credit Card Arbitration Has Consumer Advocates In An Uproar

    According to a recent ruling made by the Supreme Court, largely supported by US Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, consumers who sign a credit card agreement which features an arbitration clause do not have the option to dispute any charges or fees in the courtroom. The decision, which was 8-to-1, immediately riled up many consumer advocacy groups.

    In order to obtain a credit card, a consumer must first sign a highly detailed credit card agreement provided by the issuer. In almost all cases there is an arbitration clause nestled somewhere within the fine print that should the cardholder want to dispute fees at any point, they may do so but only through arbitration. This means that they cannot file a suit in court.

    There exists a 1996 federal law which allowed disgruntled consumers to take their disputes against their credit card issuer to court. However, the afore-mentioned Supreme Court ruling declared that the arbitration clauses contained within credit card agreements surpass that law. The president of the Center for Responsible Lending, Michael Calhoun, says that the
    Supreme Court ruling gives credit card providers, in addition to companies that provide borrowers with automobile and student loans, an inordinate amount of power. This is
    due to the fact that if consumers have no legal recourse, they are able to exact any fee they so choose. �These arbitration clauses have become a �get out of jail free� card,� said Calhoun, according to National Public Radio.

    As a result, practically every consumer loan agreement now has an arbitration clause written into it. The

    primary exception to this rule is mortgage loans, because in that instance such arbitration clauses are strictly prohibited. The managing attorney at the National Consumer Law Center Lauren Saunders claims that, in fact, the arbitration process is unfair due to the financial incentive the arbitrators have to rule in favor of lenders. �Who are you going to favor, the company that might send you more business, or the consumer who you�ll never see again?� Saunders said, as reported by NPR. However, this issue is likely far from being put to bed. Consumer advocates are pushing for the newly instituted Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to closely study these arbitration clauses which could ultimately result in their being banned from all consumer credit card agreements.

    Polycom Q2 Tops Estimates; But Stock Takes A Hit (Updated)

    Polycom (PLCM) posted better-than-expected Q2 results.

    The videoconferencing company reported revenue of $295 million in revenue, and non-GAAP profits of 34 cents a share, ahead of the Street consensus at $287.5 million and 32 cents. Revenue was up from $231 million a year ago.

    The company exited the quarter with $485 million in cash and no debt.

    In late trading, PLCM is off 2 cents at $31.80.

    Update: Polycom told investors on a conference call this afternoon that it expects Q3 revenue to be up 2%-2.5% from the second quarter, with gross margin up about 20-30 basis points sequentially, and operating margin up slightly. The top of the range would suggest revenue of $304.4 million, ahead of the Street at $297.7 million.

    The company said it now sees full year revenue growth in the low 20s on a percentage basis, with operating margins of 14%-14.5%. Polycom continues to forecast operating margins to hit 20% at some point in 2011.

    Update 2: Hmmm, there is clearly something here the Street doesn’t like. PLCM in late trading is now down $3.32, or 10.4%, to $28.50.

    It's the classic evasion of reality. We own a losing stock that continues to drop. But rather than sell and take the loss, we stubbornly hold on and wait for a bounce that never comes. The only thing worse would be doubling down along the way.

    More From Jonathan Hoenig
    • What the Bond Market Is Telling Us
    • When the Best Trade Is No Trade
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    To stem this familiar scenario, traders rely on the stop-loss order, an order to sell shares you own below the current market price, should that level ever be hit.

    It serves a practical purpose, to cut losses short, but also a psychological one. The reason stop-loss orders work is that they are actually executed; unlike the "mental" orders we often mark in our brains but never pull the trigger on in our portfolios.

    But everything that makes the stop-loss order so useful also holds true for its mirror image, the buy-stop order, which ironically most investors never consider using at all.

    A buy-stop order is entered for a security you don't own at a price above the current market. Once your specified price is breached, the shares are purchased.

    What makes buy stop orders effective is that they are triggered by the market's only important indicator, price.

    It's always a little bewildering that upon coming across a stock we want to own, our first instinct is to wait for it to fall so we can buy it cheaper. You know the drill: XYZ is at $35.10, but you're going to hold off and see if you can pick it up at $34.85.

    But if you're bullish on XYZ, you want the stock to rise, not fall. Buy-stop orders allow you to be first in line to participate in that move as soon as the market confirms your outlook.

    Using them truly puts you first in line. Even with today's instantly disseminated quotes, it still takes investors time to see a price, analyze how it might fit into their portfolio, and actually call or log-on to their accounts to place the trade. Buy stop orders mean you've already executed by the time most investors are just firing up their E*Trade (ETFC) account. In effect, you are making the market.

    In addition, just like stop-loss orders, buy stops instill a discipline that prompts one to act even when emotions get in the way.

    Consider that stocks just finished out their best first quarter in 14 years, with the S&P 500 rising 12% from roughly 1260 to 1408. As we've written about over the past few months, fund flows suggest many individual investors have missed the rally, instead allocating assets to bonds, which suffered their worst quarter in 2 years.

    That's the emotional risk: regardless if it's Apple (AAPL) or even many marine shipping stocks, stubborn investors will sit out strong bull runs for their most favored ideas simply because they refuse to purchase shares any higher than the level at which they first noticed the investment. We squirm and stammer, but often fail to actually act.

    Buy stop orders put aside fundamental considerations like earnings, management or analysts' opinion. They don't succumb to our fears over "buying the top" or of having "already missed the move". They act when you should want to: when the market is proving you right.

    Where to place a buy-stop order, however, differs slightly from a sell-stop in that you don't already own the shares. With sell-stops, many investors stick to a fixed loss on their initial investment. If the stock ever declines 15% below their purchase price, for example, they're out.

    With buy stops, we don't have the objective measure when determining where to place an order.

    So do you put buy-stops 1% higher than the current market price? Five percent? While specifics will depend on each individual's portfolio, timeframe and risk tolerance, I believe the idea is to place the buy stop at the cusp of what you see as a new, higher trading range for XYZ.

    Long equity investing means looking for a fundamental revaluation of an asset. Whether it's gold going from being frowned on to gorged upon or Latin American stocks transitioning from being avoided to embraced, the idea isn't to grab a quick scalp, but to participate in a longer-lasting trend.

    To that end, I look to put buy stops where a market would begin to break out to higher, often historic or uncharted levels -- the places your gut would tell you to dump shares, not buy them.

    Like an artist or inventor, this involves investors being able to imagine something new: namely a trading range or valuation that does not yet exist.

    The buy-stop order works because it purposefully puts us in the market exactly when that transformation in the midst of occurring: when what we had imagined beings to actually become real.

    —Jonathan Hoeing is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC

    Endeavour Silver: Focused On Growth

    Endeavour Silver (EXK) has spent the better part of 2011 executing growth plans and expanding their footprint from Mexico to Chile, a safe and secure mining jurisdiction in South America.

    For the third quarter of 2011, revenues came in at $38.8 million on the back of 858,738 ounces of silver and 4,926 ounces of gold production. An average silver sale of $40.72 per ounce was recorded with cash costs of $5.03 per ounce, net of gold credits.

    The Guanajuato plant expansion has been completed on time and on budget, eventually expanding capacity to 1,600 tpd. Drilling continues to expand the deposit at the Daniela, Karina, and Lucero veins with recent drill results indicating significant mineralization.

    Going forward, the addition of the La Presidenta and Lomas Bayas projects in Chile are significant from a geographical diversification standpoint and indicate that Endeavour can take their business model to other areas of the globe. Lomas Bayas was the subject of small scale mining in the past with a number of claims consolidated into the current property of 407 hectares. The numerous small holdings have been the reason the deposit was not exploited to a greater extent.

    The property has bulk tonnage, open pit potential and a 60 hole, 10,000 meter drill program is underway with samples indicating strong mineralization. La Presidentia is located at the north end of the Lomas Bayas caldera and encompasses 1700 hectares. The property has a history of small scale mining with no state of the art drilling or development.

    The balance sheet remains in strong shape with $123.26 million in cash, short-term investments, and available for sale securities easily funding capex and drill programs going forward. Reserves and resources continue to grow from 16 million silver equivalent ounces in 2005 to almost 100 seo’s this year and production growth has jumped from 350,000 ounces in 2004 to a target of 3.7 million ounces in 2011.

    The business plan of acquiring past producing mines and utilizing modern mining techniques to build reserves and resources has led to significant growth over the past few years. By optioning La Presidentia and Lomas Bayas Endeavour shows that their model is applicable outside of Mexico diversifying their asset base.

    Quite a few silver miners have had problems in 2011 ranging from production delays to asset writedowns and ownership questions. However, Endeavour has pushed forward with their growth plans successfully upgrading the mill at Guanajuato and diversifying their asset base.

    Investors looking through the silver mining sector should take a close look at Endeavour Silver. The management team is rock solid with more than 175 years of mining experience and a track record of success.

    Disclosure: I am long EXK.

    Wednesday, October 31, 2012

    Real Estate Agencies Differences

    Most likely much more than any service market, there’s a gaping distinction between the very best Genuine Estate Agency along with the worst, or even “the rest”.

    Throughout the boom leading up to the height of 2007 it was apparent that dollars came extremely quickly within the business. A lot of, struggling in their present job of the time saw the market as a really lucrative, effortless career choice. Standards usually had been low, there was small powerful self-regulation inside the market plus the public, fairly understandably had small confidence. Some opening their own Agency produced fantastic marketing and advertising capital in becoming different/better/more ethical or whatever – often with small substance behind their claims.

    Then came the Global Monetary Crisis, second and third tier lenders collapsed, some high profile mainstream banks identified their profligacy of lending led to their collapse and also the business lost its golden glow. Those needing the services of a Actual Estate Agency knew they had a difficulty and became discerning with their option. The business took a key reality check.

    At exactly the same time, the Government stepped in and put in location an external agency to regulate standards. The Genuine Estate Agency Authority was formed in New Zealand giving a platform for the public to create complaints, from which they could take confidence that independent investigation and suitable disciplinary action would happen.

    Subsequent to the GFC quite a few Genuine Estate Agencies have struggled to stay in profit with a lot of closing their doors. Other people, especially those that often maintained high ethical standards and who valued the principals of service have increased their marketplace share in a declining volume marketplace.

    So, what must a possible vendor appear for in picking a Actual Estate Agency to maximise the sale cost of, what exactly is almost certainly, their lost useful asset?: – Firstly, use the expertise of other people, who has the lion’s share of the nearby marketplace. What are past customers saying of the Actual Estate Agency by way of testimonials? – How lengthy has the agency been operating within the location and what exactly is the churn or turnover of salespeople? Excellent agencies retain very good people today. – What exactly is the office profile inside the New Zealand Herald and neighborhood media and does it have a top quality physical presence with an office inside the heart of the locality – the office window remains essential.

    Every Actual Estate Agency has its own office policies and procedures (or lack there of). Ask what processes are in location to benefit the individual property seller – the manager and individual salespeople really should be extremely clear about these.

    Marketplace share as well as the collective strength of the sales stream coupled using the expertise of the individual listing salesperson inside the office is quite critical.

    Actual Estate Agencies commonly are enhancing (they should do so to survive), but there is certainly still a gaping distinction between the very best and worst Genuine Estate Agencies.

    It pays to invest time applying a couple of key questions ahead of committing to give your most useful asset to an all-so-ran agent.

    Please visit our articles about Cheap Heels and Munro Shoes

    Immelt and Paulson Meet Again

    This event — Hank Paulson being interviewed by Jeffrey Immelt at the 92nd Street Y on February 18 — might just have got a lot more interesting:

    On Sept. 15, 2008, the day Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, Paulson says he was “startled” when Immelt came to his office and told him GE was finding it “very difficult” to sell short-term debt “for any term longer than overnight.” A day earlier, GE sent investors a letter saying its ability to sell commercial paper was “robust.” Immelt, in a statement issued Friday by GE, said he “does not believe” the two discussed problems with GE commercial paper on Sept. 15, or in one previous talk.

    If correct, the portrayals in Paulson’s book, “On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System,” could spell trouble for GE in court, where shareholders are accusing Immelt and other executives in civil suits of violating securities laws by misleading investors in fall 2008 about GE’s finances and withholding key information.

    Now, what are the chances that Immelt will bring up the discussion he had with Paulson on September 15? It would be really amazingly wonderful if the mogulfest turned into a substantive disagreement with millions of dollars at stake, with Paulson standing by his book and saying that Immelt had complained about illiquid CP markets, and Immelt denying the allegation.

    But frankly it strains credibility that Immelt would have had a meeting with Paulson on that particular day and said anything else: this was hardly the time to be paying social calls. As a result, I suspect that Immelt won’t raise the subject — just as Paulson, in his book, never raises the subject of his scandalous meeting with the Goldman Sachs board in June 2008. If the likes of Immelt and Paulson had their way, no one would ever ask any tough questions at all, at the 92nd St Y or anywhere else.

    (HT: Bishop)

    Teva Downgraded as Copaxone Faces More Pressure

    Piper Jaffray analyst David Amsellem downgraded Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) to Neutral from Overweight today on concerns that competition for its multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone is clouding the company’s prospects. Biogen (BIIB), for instance, has developed a promising competitor to Copaxone called BG-12, and Teva is also trying to protect the drug against generic competition.

    “Following strong data for Biogen Idec�s BG12…we believe doubts regarding the long-term future of Copaxone will only deepen, making it difficult for us to envision sentiment surrounding TEVA turning around in the next several months,” Amsellem writes.

    “As such, we are downgrading TEVA to a Neutral from an Overweight, and lowering our price target to $45 from $63. Though we acknowledge that TEVA shares are relatively inexpensive in the context of strong cash flow generation, the reality is that concern regarding Copaxone (i.e., brand and generic competition) will not resolve anytime soon, making it difficult in our view for investors to step in primarily on the basis of valuation.”

    2 REITs: One Safe, One Speculative

    Real estate investment trusts (REITs) can offer terrific dividends and stability to your portfolio, depending on the type of real estate in the portfolio. Today I�ve identified two REITs that are going through a transition. If successful, the moves could mean big capital gains on top of generous dividends.

    Getty Realty Corp.

    Getty Realty Corp. (NYSE:GTY) operates in a very interesting space — one that I like a lot. The company owns and leases retail motor-fuel and convenience-store properties and petroleum-distribution terminals. GTY�s properties are leased or sublet to distributors and retailers that sell gasoline and various motor-fuel products, convenience store products and automotive-repair services.

    Getty owns 1,000 properties in 20 states and leases an additional 167. Some readers may be old enough to recognize the Getty name. Those who aren�t nonetheless recognize the major oil-company names that your local gas station/convenience store operates under. It�s where you fill your tank and get your beef jerky.

    In 2000, a spin-off that handled Getty’s petroleum-marketing business and had almost 800 properties in its portfolio filed for bankruptcy. Getty repossessed those properties. It plans to do all of the following to get them generating revenue again: make short-term compensation arrangements with the existing occupants, sign fuel-supply agreements with third-party fuel suppliers, arrange long-term leases with gasoline distributors and sell 160 properties.

    Getty believes this will eventually result in long-term triple-net leases for tenants, of which 282 have already been signed. The repositioning process will cost Getty some money and won�t bring in as much in rent, though.

    If Getty can stabilize the portfolio, GTY is undervalued, with significant capital gains to be had. From what I can tell, Getty does appear to have the cash flow needed to pay its 25 cents-per-share quarterly dividend, which is a 6.2% yield.

    If the company can�t pull it together, that dividend will be cut back — and so will the share price.

    Federal Realty Investment Trust

    Maybe you aren�t so keen on making a speculative bet. That�s fine. You can play it safe with�Federal Realty Investment Trust� (NYSE:FRT). The company owners, manages, develops, and redevelops retail and mixed-use properties. It holds 87 of them, representing 19.2 million square feet, across 14 states.

    How safe is Federal Realty?� It has been in business since 1962 — and has increased its dividend for 44� years�straight! The company is seeing strong numbers currently, with same-store net operating income up 5.5%. The REIT has also raised its guidance on 2012 FFO.

    The stock has returned 150% since its financial-crisis low and continues to make new highs. It�s as solid a REIT as you will find, and it pays $2.76 per share annually, which currently represents a 2.7% yield. �This REIT has a place in either a regular or retirement portfolio. If you happen to be an options player, it�s solidity also allows you to enjoy scoring premiums by selling covered calls.

    As of this writing, Lawrence Meyers did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. He is president of PDL Capital, Inc., which brokers secure high-yield investments to the general public and private equity. You can read his stock market commentary at SeekingAlpha.com. He also has written two books and blogs about public policy, journalistic integrity, popular culture and world affairs.

    Surprisingly Weak Home Prices Indicate We Haven’t Hit Bottom

    Standard & Poor’s said today that a home price index comprised of 20 metropolitan areas showed prices fell to their lowest levels since 2003 in December. The Case-Shiller Index’s continuing weakness was disappointing, aprticulalry after the market appeared to have stabilized last year.

    “In terms of prices, the housing market ended 2011 on a very disappointing note,” said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices in a statement. “With this month�s report we saw all three composite hit new record lows. While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended.”

    many observers, including Warren Buffet himself, had surmised that 2011 would see improvement in the housing market, which is considered necessary for a full economic recovery. But the recent data (admittedly lagging) paints a different picture.

    The data is weighing on stocks today, particularly after durable goods data also gave investors little to cheer about.

    Shares of homebuilders were broadly lower, although Hovnanian (HOV) rose after reporting some strong contract data. The major indexes were see-sawing around zero.

    3 Whole Companies To Buy if Win Lottery

    The Mega Millions lottery prize has become one of the biggest headlines out there. The jackpot is now at a staggering $540 million, sparking a frenzy to buy up tickets despite 1-in-176 million odds.

    No doubt, the winner will have a tough time spending all the cash. Even if you took your winnings as a lump sum (which means you’ll lose a significant chunk of change), you’ll still be left with $293 million after taxes.

    Still, plenty of lotto winners — and for that matter, people who have earned their millions — have gone bust, wildly spending their cash with no plans to grow it.

    Any lottery winner definitely could have fun playing the stock market, but with almost $300 million in cash, you could buy a whole company! A number of smaller outfits go for the low hundreds of millions, and have decent enough prospects that they could end up being worth that enormous check.

    Here’s three publicly traded companies you might consider buying if you hit the Mega Millions jackpot:

        Collectors Universe ($132 Million)

    Collectors Universe (NASDAQ:CLCT) provides authentication and grading services for collectors of high-value items, like coins, trading cards, autographs and stamps. CLCT has been a top player in the market since the 1980s and has made some key acquisitions along the way.

    In the latest quarter, Collectors Universe generated $11.4 million in revenues and posted income from operations of $1.1 million.

    The company also pays a hefty annual dividend of 7.9%, which would come to about $10.4 million per year if you held its whole pile of stock.

        Big 5 Sporting Goods ($171 Million)

    Big 5 Sporting Goods (NASDAQ:BGFV) would be a good choice for a sports nut.

    Founded 57 years ago, the company operates 406 stores across 12 states. Each location is about 11,000 square feet and offers a wide mix of merchandise, such as equipment for fitness, fishing, tennis, golf, snowboarding and roller sports. Like most of the other sporting goods retailers, its offerings include products made by Nike (NYSE:NKE), Wilson and Under Armour (NYSE:UA).

    The management team has had a long history of discipline and strong execution, and in 2011, Big 5 had revenues of $902.1 million and operating income of $19.2 million. And its 3.7% dividend yield isn’t anything to sneeze at, either.

    West Bancorporation ($174 Million)

    Rich people put their money in a bank.

    Super-rich people can BUY a bank.

    One possibility: sleepy West Bancorp (NASDAQ:WTBA), which operates in Iowa. The firm has been around since 1893 and is headquartered in West Des Moines.

    In the latest quarter, West Bank reported net income of $3.7 million, and the bank has shown improvement in its loan pipeline as the U.S. economy continues to recover. It too sports a nice dividend, with WTBA yielding around 3.2%.

    Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog�IPO Playbook, a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial public offerings. He also is the author of��The Complete M&A Handbook”,��All About Short Selling��and��All About Commodities.��Follow him on Twitter at�@ttaulli�or reach him via�email. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

    Today In Commodities: Trading Your Plan

    Over the years I’ve learned that when markets are quiet it is easy to fall asleep at the wheel and not abide to your plan, but avoid those pitfalls to increase the likelihood for success. Crude bounced off support and closed back above the 9 day MA above $101/barrel. As long as $100 holds prices should work higher. I have advised the sidelines to clients until we get a clearer picture. Natural gas remained in its 15 cent trading range as prices tread water today finishing slightly lower. A settlement above the 9 day MA is needed for any hope of a recovery. Equities finished flat as the 9 day MA continues to act as the pivot point. Being prices are oversold do not rule out a correction back to the 20 day MA…which would be roughly 30 points lower in the S&P and 240 in the Dow.

    February gold is having trouble getting above $1635, the same level that acted as resistance in recent weeks. I expect this to be temporary and have a target of $1660 plus in the coming weeks. Silver is likely taking a breath before its next leg higher as well failing to breach $30/ounce in recent sessions. My target in March remains $32. The dollar failed to hold onto early gains closing lower with all other crosses higher on the day. If this serves as an interim top, which is too early to say buying the Euro may be the best play…stay tuned. Commodity currencies still appear to be at lofty levels so on a commodity correction play the Loonie, Kiwi and Aussie from the short side.

    Cocoa picked up 7% today as a new leg higher may be under way. We like the risk to reward dynamic buying at these deflated levels especially if the greenback turns south…trade accordingly. Potential crop damage from last week’s cold temp in Florida lifts OJ limit higher today carrying prices near two month highs. Shorts should have been stopped out on the new high at a loss. Wait for a clearer sign in the Treasury market as we could go either way. New entries in bearish Euro-dollar plays can wait for a higher entry as if looks like there is a touch more upside. Continued adverse weather in South America and buyers stepping in ahead of Thursday’s USDA report contributed to the jump in grains today. Corn gained 1.3%, wheat 2.7% and soybeans just over 3%. Clients have no exposure. Live cattle have lost ground eight of the last nine sessions and still appear to have more downside…trade accordingly. My target in February is 119.00. Remain on the sidelines in lean hogs as prices may test the mid-December lows.

    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

    Has Cbeyond Made You Any Real Money?

    Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

    Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Cbeyond (Nasdaq: CBEY  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Over the past 12 months, Cbeyond generated $18.4 million cash while it booked a net loss of $4.7 million. That means it turned 3.7% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

    All cash is not equal
    Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

    For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

    So how does the cash flow at Cbeyond look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

    With 31.2% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Cbeyond investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, stock-based compensation and related tax benefits provided the biggest boost, at 15.5% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 78.5% of cash from operations.

    A Foolish final thought
    Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

    We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

    • Add Cbeyond to My Watchlist.