Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Shorter the time target, less must be your equity exposure

Below is the edited transcript of his answers. Also watch the accompanying video.

Caller: I can invest Rs 20,000 per month. I want to earn around Rs 20 lakh in a time period of seven to eight years. I have investments in LIC, fixed deposits and NSC, and I have two dependents. How should I allocate the money?

A: Basically you already have a lot fixed deposits. So for Rs 20 lakh, that is, if you want to invest around Rs 20000 for a period of 10 years, I would suggest that you invest in diversified equity or even in top-capital equity. Essentially, you already have lots of debt schemes. I would recommend you do one of these two or three funds - Franklin India Bluechip, HDFC Top 200, Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity. You can pick and choose. This Rs 20000 could grow depending on the returns it could grow in 10 years to anywhere between Rs 40-53 lakh at an assumed return of around 14%.

Caller: I can invest Rs 10,000 per month and am looking at investment through an SIP. My goal is Rs 10 lakh in five years, and I have no dependents. How should I allocate the money?

A: You don�t have any dependents then possibly you don�t really need life insurance. You may need other kinds of insurance in terms of health or possibly disability insurance that you should seek. Separate advice but in terms of getting Rs 10 lakh for five years, when your period of investment is five years, a pure equity investment is not something that we would suggest. I would tend to suggest a balanced fund where about 70-75% is in equity and about 25-30% would be in fairly highly rated debt. This Rs 10000 per month will roughly give you, assuming a return of around 12.9% for five years, about Rs 8.5 lakh. If you want to get Rs 10 lakh, you should do Rs 12000.

Recommended funds are HDFC Prudence, you can do Reliance Regular Saving Fund � the balanced option or Birla Sun Life 95. The Rs 10000 or Rs 12000 that you decide to put in, I would suggest you spread it only over two funds and do not take all the three. You can pick and choose the two or three that you want.

Q: Would it be a safe assumption that if I am able to save Rs 10000 per month now its quiet possible that three or four years from now it will naturally scale up to maybe Rs 12000-13000� sheer inflation and perhaps the natural progress of things. Should one assume that when one has a goal of Rs 10 lakh five years down the line?

A: The point there is when he wants to increase his investment by Rs 2000 at that time, the period is only two or three years. And that time to invest in a balance fund would be a little more risky. As your goal comes nearer, you want more debt and much less equity. In fact, for a two-year horizon, it would be difficult to recommend equity. It will have to be pure debt instrument. If it is next year, he can still consider balanced fund but if it is after that then he should look at debt.

Bear of the Day: Park Electrochemical (PKE) - Bear of ...

Park Electrochemical (PKE) recently reported its 3rd straight earnings miss thanks in large part to a -6% decline in net sales.Analysts revised their estimates meaningfully lower for both 2014 and 2015 following the company's most recent earnings miss on June 26. This sent the stock to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock.Despite this, shares currently trade at a premium on a forward P/E basis. Investors may want to avoid PKE until its earnings momentum turns around.Park Electrochemical Corp. manufactures high-technology digital and RF/microwave printed circuit materials primarily for the telecommunications and internet infrastructure and high-end computing markets and advanced composite materials, parts and assemblies for the aerospace markets. Sales of printed circuit materials products account for approximately 85% of its total revenue.First Quarter ResultsPark Electrochemical reported somewhat disappointing first quarter fiscal 2014 results on June 26. Earnings per share came in at 25 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4 cents. It was the company's third straight earnings miss.The company continued to post lethargic top-line results. Net sales declined 6% to $43.4 million, which was well below the consensus of $47.0 million. Despite this, the operating profit margin expanded a solid 190 basis points which led to a 4% increase in net income.Estimates FallFollowing the Q1 earnings miss, analysts revised their estimates meaningfully lower for both 2014 and 2015. This sent the stock to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2014 is now $1.17, down from $1.26 before the Q1 release. The 2015 consensus is currently $1.25, down from $1.38 over the same period.This continues the trend of negative earnings revisions over the last several months, as you can see in the company's 'Price & Consensus' chart:Premium ValuationDespite the negative earnings momentum, shares of! Park Electrochemical are still trading at a premium valuation on a forward P/E basis. Its 12-month forward P/E ratio of 21 is well above the industry median of 16x and its 10-year historical median of 18x.Investors with a short-term time horizon that are still interested in the 'Electronics - Miscellaneous Components' industry may want to consider Nidec Corp (NJ) or Stoneridge (SRI) instead, which are both Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks.The Bottom LineWith a string of negative earnings surprises, falling earnings estimates and premium valuation, investors should consider avoiding this Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock until its earnings momentum turns around.Todd Bunton is the Growth & Income Stock Strategist for Zacks Investment Research and Editor of the Income Plus Investor service.