Friday, September 13, 2013

Are All-Time High Prices Supported In Nike?

With shares of Nike (NYSE:NKE) trading around $65, is NKE an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Nike is engaged in the design, development, and worldwide marketing and selling of footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company sells its products to retail accounts, through retail stores and Internet sales, and through a mix of independent distributors and licensees around the world. Nike focuses its product offerings in seven key categories: Running, Basketball, Soccer, Men’s Training, Women’s Training, Nike Sportswear and Action Sports. It also markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses. As the staying active and fitness movement sees progress, Nike is a company that is poised to see rising profits.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

Nike stock has been seeing an explosive run higher over the last several years. In fact, the stock is currently trading at all-time high pricees. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Nike is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

NKE

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Nike options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Nike Options

19.45%

23%

20%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

June Options

Flat

Average

July Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Nike’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Nike look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

2012 Q1

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

58.33%

-16.00%

-9.56%

-5.42%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

9.39%

7.37%

9.67%

21.97%

Earnings Reaction

11.06%

6.16%

-1.12%

-9.39%

Nike has seen mixed earnings and increasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have been pleased with Nike’s recent earnings announcements.

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P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Nike stock done relative to its peers, Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX), Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ:DECK), Under Armour (NYSE:UA), and sector?

Nike

Crocs

Deckers Outdoor

Under Armour

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

26.67%

18.62%

31.02%

27.88%

19.56%

Nike has been an average performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Nike provides athletic footwear and apparel during a highly demanding time to consumers, athletes, and companies worldwide. The stock has been surging higher over the last few years and is now trading at all-time high prices. Earnings have been mixed while revenues have seen a steady increase over the last four quarters, overall pleasing investors. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Nike has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Nike to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now

As prices for solar panels and modules stabilize, stocks in the solar energy companies have once more put on a growth spurt. Since the beginning of the year shares of SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) are up more than 300% and shares of China�� Canadian Solar Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) are up nearly as much. Industry consolidation is not a far-fetched notion any longer.

SunPower is back in the money after the company sold a 60% stake to Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT) for $23.25 a share in the summer of 2011. Shares are trading at around $23.50 at noon on Monday, after peaking at over $28 in late July. It�� not hard to imagine that Total may want to shed SunPower, either through a sale or a spin-off. What�� a bit harder to imagine is that there�� a buyer lurking in the weeds.

Another possible target is the solar energy division of SunEdison Inc. (NYSE: SUNE). The company said last week that it would be spinning off its semiconductor business into a separate company next year. In the second quarter of this year the semiconductor segment provided about 60% of SunEdison�� total revenues of $401.3 million. But the company�� solar business has historically provided most of the revenues and could be both a target as operating losses in the solar energy segment continue.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: China Security & Surveillance Technology Inc. (CSR)

China Security & Surveillance Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, installs, distributes, and services surveillance and safety products, systems, and software in the People?s Republic of China. The company?s products include standalone digital video recorders (DVRs); embedded DVRs; mobile DVRs; real-time hard-compression coding cards; DVR compression boards; digital cameras; intelligent high-speed dome cameras; intelligent control system software platforms; perimeter security alarm systems; monitors; and radio frequency identification terminals and data collectors. It serves various customers, which include governmental entities, such as customs agencies, courts, public security bureaus, and prisons; non-profit organizations, including schools, museums, sports arenas, and libraries; and commercial entities consisting of airports, hotels, real estate, banks, mines, railways, supermarkets, and entertainment venues. The company is headquartered in S henzhen, the People?s Republic of China.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: ChinaEdu Corporation(CEDU)

ChinaEdu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides educational services to the online degree programs of universities in the People?s Republic of China. It also offers online tutoring services to primary and secondary school students; operates primary and secondary schools; and markets international English language curriculum programs to established learning institutions, as well as international polytechnic programs to vocational schools in China. The company?s online degree programs offer associate and bachelor?s degree programs, including accounting, marketing, finance, business administration, international business, law, civil engineering, education, computer science, literature, project management, marketing, and administrative management. These online degree programs primarily target working adults. Its services also include academic program development, technology services, enrollment marketing, recruiting, student support services, and finance operati ons. The company provides technical, recruiting, and other services for the online degree programs of 27 universities; and technology support services to 7 additional universities that are awaiting regulatory approval to launch their online degree programs. As of December 31, 2010, it served approximately 311,000 online degree programs students, as well as approximately 51,450 students in other businesses. ChinaEdu Corporation was founded in 1999 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

10 Best Safest Stocks To Buy Right Now: 3SBio Inc.(SSRX)

3SBio Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products in the People?s Republic of China. Its products include EPIAO, an injectable recombinant human erythropoietin to stimulate the production of red blood cells in patients with anemia and to reduce the need for blood transfusions; and TPIAO, a recombinant human thrombopoietin to treat chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia. The company also offers Intefen, a recombinant interferon alpha-2a product for the treatment of carcinoma of the lymphatic or hematopoietic system and viral infectious diseases; Inleusin, a recombinant human IL-2 product to treat renal cell carcinoma, metastatic melanoma, and thoratic fluid build-up caused by cancer and tuberculosis; and Iron Sucrose Supplement for treating anemia associated with iron deficiency, as well as for patients with end-stage renal disease requiring iron replacement therapy. In addition, its product pi peline comprises a high dosage EPIAO; NuPIAO, a second-generation EPIAO; TPIAO to treat idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura; NuLeusin for metastatic melanoma and metastatic renal cell carcinoma; human papilloma virus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer; and an anti-TNF monoclonal antibody product candidate for treating rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and other inflammatory diseases. Further, the company?s product pipeline includes Feraheme, an in-licensed intravenous iron replacement therapeutic agent used to treat iron deficiency anemia in chronic kidney disease patients and in patients requiring hemodialysis; and Nephoxil, an iron-based phosphate binder for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in patients with ESRD. It sells its products directly, as well as through its network of distributors to various healthcare providers, including hospitals, clinics, and dialysis centers. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shenyang, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Hilary Kramer]

    3SBio (NASDAQ:SSRX) is based in China, so it has suffered from the uncertainties that have hit the stock market there, but it’s a solid company that should achieve strong growth for years to come. The majority of sales come from two strong products, EPIAO and TPIAO, which have both benefited from improved regulations and access in China. 3SBio should increase revenues in excess of 20% over the next two years, but the stock is attractively valued at only 12 times the 2012 estimate of 95 cents a share. SSRX is an attractive buy at current prices.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: Raptor Pharmaceutical Corp.(RPTP)

Raptor Pharmaceuticals Corp. operates as a biotechnology company in the United States. The company is dedicated to speeding the delivery of new treatment options to patients by working to improve existing therapeutics through the application of highly specialized drug targeting platforms and formulation expertise. Its clinical stage development products include DR Cysteamine, which is in phase IIb for the treatment of cystinosis; phase IIa for the non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; and phase II for the treatment of Huntington?s disease. Raptor?s clinical-stage products also include Convivia that is in Phase IIa stage for the potential management of acetaldehyde toxicity due to alcohol consumption; and Tezampanel and NGX 426, which completed phase I stage for the treatment of migraine and pain. Its preclinical product candidates comprise HepTide for the treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Hepatitis; WntTide for the treatment of breast cancer; NeuroTrans for the treatmen t of neurodegenerative diseases; and Tezampanel and NGX 426 for the treatment of Thrombosis and Spasticity Disorder. Raptor Pharmaceuticals Corp. is headquartered in Novato, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By cnAnalyst]

    Raptor Pharmaceutical Corp. (NASDAQ:RPTP) is the 7th best-performing stock last month in this segment of the market. It was up 69.94% for the past month. Its price percentage change was 52.20% year-to-date.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: China Mobile(Hong Kong)

China Mobile Limited, an investment holding company, provides mobile telecommunications and related services primarily in the Mainland China. It offers various services comprising local calls, domestic long distance calls, international long distance calls, domestic roaming, and international roaming. The company also provides voice value-added services, including caller identity display, caller restrictions, call waiting, call forwarding, call holding, voice mail, and conference calls; customer-to-customer messages and corporate short message services; and mobile Internet access services. In addition, it engages in other data businesses, which primarily include multimedia messaging services; color ring services that enable users to customize the answer ring tone from various selection of songs, melodies, sound effects, or voice recordings; and mobile reading, mobile gaming, mobile video, mobile payment/wallet, mobile TV, mobile market, and Internet data center services. F urther, the company offers telecommunications network planning, design, and consulting services; roaming clearance services; technology platform development and maintenance services; and mobile data solutions, and system integration and development services, as well as operates a network and business coordination center. Additionally, China Mobile Limited sells mobile phone handsets and devices. As of March 31, 2011, it served approximately 600.8 million customers. The company was formerly known as China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited and changed its name to China Mobile Limited in May 2006. China Mobile was founded in 1997. The company is based in Central, Hong Kong, and is considered a Red Chip company due to its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. China Mobile Limited is a subsidiary of China Mobile Hong Kong (BVI) Limited.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: China Kanghui Holdings(KH)

China Kanghui Holdings develops, manufactures, and markets orthopedic implants and associated instruments. It offers approximately 30 product series of orthopedic implants and associated instruments for trauma, spine, cranial maxillofacial, and craniocerebral indications. The company?s trauma products include a range of nails, plates and screws, and cranial maxillofacial plate and screw systems used in the surgical treatment of bone fractures. Its spine products comprise screws, meshes, interbody cages, and fixation systems used in the surgical treatment of spine disorders. China Kanghui Holdings also manufactures products, including implants, implant components, and instruments for original equipment manufacturers. The company markets its products under Kanghui and Libeier brand names through third-party distributors to hospitals and surgeons. It sells its products in Asia, Europe, South America, and Africa. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Changzho u, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sherry Jim]

    China Kanghui Holdings is a developer, manufacturer and marketer of orthopedic implants in China. China Kanghui Holdings has a market cap of $532.47 million; its shares were traded at around $23.35 with a P/E ratio of 56.95 and P/S ratio of 14.48.

    Soros bought 592,000 shares of China Kanghui Holdings at $18.52 and did not purchase more in the first quarter 2011.The stock has increased 28% year to date.

    First quarter 2011 net income increased by 23.6% to RMB22.0 from RMB17.8 million in the first quarter 2010. Net income per diluted ADS was RMB0.87 in the first quarter 2011, increased from a net loss per diluted share of RMB0.77 in the first quarter 2010. Domestic sales for its proprietary products increased 21.0% year over year to RMB50.1 million from RMB41.4 million, and international sales of proprietary products increased 246% from RMB11.1 million from RMB3.2 million. The company has cash and cash equivalents of $27.1 million on its balance sheet as of March 31, 2011.

    China Kanghui expects year-over-year revenue growth of 20 to 25% in 2011, making revenue for the year 2011 between RMB292 and RMB303.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: U S Concrete Inc.(USCR)

U.S. Concrete, Inc. engages in the production and sale of ready-mixed concrete, precast concrete products, and concrete-related products for use in commercial, residential, and public works construction projects in the United States. It operates in two segments, Ready-Mixed Concrete and Concrete-Related Products, and Precast Concrete Products. The Ready-Mixed Concrete and Concrete-Related Products segment involves in the formulation, preparation, and delivery of ready-mixed concrete to customers? job sites; and the provision of various services that include the formulation of mixtures for specific design uses, on-site and lab-based product quality control, and customized delivery programs. This segment also engages in the mining and sale of aggregates, such as crushed stone aggregates, sand, and gravel; and the resale of building materials, including rebars, concrete blocks, wire mesh, color additives, curing compounds, grouts, wooden forms, concrete masonry, and tools. Th e Precast Concrete Products segment produces a range of precast concrete products for use in various architectural applications, including free-standing walls used for landscaping; soundproofing and security walls; panels used to clad a building facade; and storm water drainages. This segment also offers various finished products consisting of utility vaults, manholes, catch basins, highway barriers, curb inlets, pre-stressed bridge girders, concrete piles, and custom-designed architectural products. The company serves general contractors, concrete sub-contractors, design engineers, architects, governmental agencies, property owners and developers, and home builders principally in Texas, California, New Jersey, and New York. As of March 7, 2011, it had 102 fixed and 11 portable ready-mixed concrete plants, 7 precast concrete plants, and 7 aggregates facilities. U.S. Concrete, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By cnAnalyst]

    US Concrete Inc (NASDAQ:USCR) is the 9th best-performing stock last month in this segment of the market. It was up 65.22% for the past month. Its price percentage change was -79.12% year-to-date.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: Universal Travel Group(UTA)

Universal Travel Group, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider offering air ticketing and hotel booking services, as well as domestic and international packaged tourism services via the Internet, customer representatives, and kiosks in the People?s Republic of China. It also provides technological solutions to travel reservations, and tour planning and tour guide services. In addition, the company operates TRIPEASY Kiosks, which are placed in hotels, office buildings, banks, shopping malls, and MTR stations for travel booking with credit cards or bank debit cards. Universal Travel Group is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Louis Navellier]

    As China’s economy grows, the Chinese middle class has taken flight — literally. Providing the travel arrangements for this newfound class of Chinese travelers is Universal Travel Group (UTA).

    The company provides domestic and international airline ticketing services, along with cargo transportation agency services. But it’s not just flights that UTA helps citizens book. The company also provides hotel reservations, tour planning, ground transportation, railway and express delivery and air delivery services.

    UTA is the travel agency in China, and considering the shares have booked a 190% gain over the past 12 months, it certainly seems like the sky is the limit for UTA.

    I rate UTA an A, making it a strong buy.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: iSoftStone Holdings Limited(ISS)

iSoftStone Holdings Limited provides various information technology (IT) services and solutions in the Greater China and internationally. It offers an integrated suite of IT services and solutions, including consulting and solution services, IT services, and business process outsourcing (BPO) services. The company provides a range of consulting services for an overall engagement or discrete consulting services in conjunction with other services. It also develops industry-specific solutions, including treasury management, cash management, property and casualty insurance core, financial holding company business analysis, trust company core, and banking risk management solutions for banking, financial services, and insurance industries; supply chain management, enterprise information portals, business intelligence, business process integration, and management and e-commerce solutions for energy, transportation, and public sectors; mobile and embedded technology, next generati on platforms, business intelligence functionality, and network security products for the communications industry. In addition, the company offers various IT services consisting of application development and maintenance, research and development, and infrastructure and software services. Further, it provides a range of BPO services, such as securities trade processing services for the investment banking industry; digitization and archiving of policyholder information, as well as account processing and customer service for insurance industry; and cross-industry BPO services comprising finance and accounting, customer care, and human resources. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lowell]

    iSoftStone Holdings Limited Ame is an IT service provider operating an integrated service delivery platform for IT services and solutions in the Peoples' Republic of China. Isoftstone Holdings Ltd. has a market cap of $779.58 million; its shares were traded at around $15.38 with and P/S ratio of 3.96.

    Soros bought 510,345 shares of iSoftStone Holdings Ltd. in the first quarter of 2011, at an average share price of $19.28. The stock price has declined 12.38% year to date.

    The company operates a suite of IT services and solutions, including: IT services, which primarily includes application development and maintenance (ADM), as well as R&D services and infrastructure and software services; consulting and solutions; and business process outsourcing (BPO) services.

    iSoftStone’s first quarter 2011 revenues of $20.5 million, increased from $13.8 million in the same quarter 2010. Net income increased to $5.2 million from $788,000 in the same quarter 2010. The company’s operating expenses grew 30% from the first quarter 2010 due to in large part to a continuing investing in management capacity, sales force and marketing efforts to support top-line growth and research and development activities. Net revenues in each of its global markets, which comprise almost 45% of its business, increased as well. iSoftStone is affected by seasonal trends and its first quarter results are typically lower than other quarters.

    iSoftStone will be expanding into the public sector for the first time through a multi-million-dollar project they won in the first quarter. “We believe the contract gives us great entry point to grow our presence in the public sector,” the company said in a statement.

Top 10 China Companies To Buy Right Now: LDK Solar Co. Ltd.(LDK)

LDK Solar Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of photovoltaic (PV) products; and development of power plant projects. It offers solar-grade and semiconductor-grade polysilicon; and multicrystalline and monocrystalline solar wafers to the manufacturers of solar cells and solar modules. The company also provides wafer processing services to monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cell and module manufacturers; and sells silicon materials, such as ingots and polysilicon scraps. In addition, it engages in the production and sale of solar cells and modules to developers, distributors, and system integrators; and design and development of solar power projects in Europe, the United States, and China, as well as provides engineering, procurement, and construction services. LDK Solar Co., Ltd. operates in Europe, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in Xinyu City, t he People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul]

    LDK Solar Co., Inc.(NYSE: LDK) closing price in the stock market Tuesday, Jan. 3, was $4.38. LDK is trading 9.48% above its 50 day moving average and -11.82% below its 200 day moving average. LDK is -70.74% below its 52-week high of $14.97 and 71.76% above its 52-week low of $2.55. LDK‘s PE ratio is 6.53 and its market cap is $573.78M.

    LDK Solar Co., Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of photovoltaic (PV) products; and development of power plant projects together with its subsidiaries. LDK offers solar-grade and semiconductor-grade polysilicon; and multicrystalline and monocrystalline solar wafers to the manufacturers of solar cells and solar modules.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One under-$10 name that's starting to move within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade is LDK Solar (LDK), a vertically integrated manufacturer of PV products for polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules, systems, power projects and solutions. This stock is off to a decent start in 2013, with shares up 13.1%.

    If you take a look at the chart for LDK Solar, you'll notice that this stock has been trending range bound and consolidating for the last month and change, with shares moving between $1.42 on the downside and $2 a share on the upside. Shares of LDK have just started to trend back above its 50-day moving average at $1.55 a share with decent upside volume flows. That move is quickly pushing shares of LDK within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade above a key downtrend line that has acted as resistance for a few months.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in LDK if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.78 to $1.83 a share and then once it clears more resistance at $2 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.97 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then LDK will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $2.17 to its 52-week high at $2.32 a share. Any high-volume move above $2.32 to $2.36 will then give LDK a chance to tag $3 to $3.50 a share.

    Traders can look to buy LDK off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at its 200-day moving average of $1.46 or at $1.42 a share. One can also buy LDK off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Yield Investing: Dividend, Earnings And FCF

There are numerous ways to value investments, and many investors prefer a specific valuation method. For some it may be the often used price-to-earnings multiple. For others it may be revenue growth, and still others may look at price momentum. Yield investing is one way to value a stock by comparing the current price to various factors that produce income from an investment. There are many ways to measure yield - three common ones are dividend yield, earnings yield and free cash flow yield.

Dividend Yield
Dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend per share by the price per share or the annual dividend by the market cap. A high dividend yield could reflect stocks that are undervalued and will provide a higher return. To determine if a dividend yield is high, it is often compared to the market yield. For example, the average dividend yield for the S&P 500 over the the last six decades leading up to 2013 is 3.4%. Using this as a benchmark, any yield above this mark is attractive. Rising dividend yield can be the result of two occurrences: a falling stock price or a rising dividend payout, the latter being preferable. Another use of dividend yield is to compare it to the yield on 10-year treasuries. If an investment's dividend yield is greater than the treasury yield, then that investment is attractive given that the risk profile is not too high.

Earnings Yield
Earnings yield is the last 12 months of earnings per share divided by the current price per share. The earnings yield measures how much return an investment in a company earned over the past 12 months. Earnings yield is the inverse of the popular price/earnings ratio. Like the dividend yield, the higher the earning yields, the more attractive the investment. Earnings yield is extremely useful for comparing various markets. For example, if the current 10-year treasury yield is 3.5% and the earnings yield for S&P 500 is 5%, then the stock market is undervalued on an earnings basis compared to the bond market. Company shares trading at an earnings yield greater than 5% will be considered undervalued compared to the market. The criticism of using the earnings yield, like the P/E ratio, is that earnings are easily manipulated. And because of the potential for creative accounting to impact earnings, some investors prefer to use free cash flow as a truer measure.

Free Cash Flow Yield
Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield is the annualized FCF per share divided by the current share price. FCF yield is popular with investors who believe the true measure of a company's operating strength is sought by following the cash. FCF is the cash left over after paying all the operating expenses and capital expenditures, or operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Determining how much cash a company generated, after paying its operating expenses and other ongoing costs to keep itself operating, and comparing that to the price per share provides the company's true value. The higher the FCF yield, the more attractive the investment. The FCF yield points to the fact that investors would like to pay as little as possible for as much earnings as possible. Similar to earnings yield, the FCF yield can be used to compare companies across the same or different industries.

Which 'Yield' Makes Sense?
Are there advantages to using one yield measure over another? That depends on the investor. No one measure is the "holy grail." Each has its critics and proponents. Dividend yield is perhaps the most frequently used yield measure. It is also the one that is left to the company's discretion, because dividends can be increased, decreased or suspended by the company at any time, although companies try not to reduce dividends because it is a negative signal. Therefore, dividend yield is not the best yield measure when looking to value a company, but it can indicate a company's general trajectory.

Investors will often compare dividend yield to the yield on 10- year treasuries (a riskless asset) as a proxy for stock market attractiveness. Secondly, the yield level or percentage change can give investors foresight into company management's expectations of future cash flows and growth prospects. Lastly, dividend yield can be used in conjunction with other measures. For example, FCF provides insight into the cash generated after expenses. If the FCF is low and the dividend yield is high, this indicates a mismatch in the investment's valuation using both metrics and should raise a red flag for the analyst or investor. In contrast, if the FCF is high and the dividend yield is low, the company could be signaling a future acquisition or other growth investment that could be a positive catalyst for the stock.

FCF yield and earnings yield are two measures that can be used to value a company and compare it to other investments over time. These yields look at valuation in two ways, the former using cash flow and the latter using earnings. Although proponents and critics argue about which measure is a better indicator of "true earnings," both can be used to find strong companies. Take the following example:


Earnings Yield FCF Yield
Stock A 5% 4%
Stock B 10% 5%

In this example, Stock B has a higher earnings and FCF yield than A, which says that the stock appears undervalued on both measures. Also, one can notice that the earnings yield has a larger spread than the FCF yield, which should make the investor look deeper into the financials to see where the cash is going or what makes the company's earnings much higher.

In another example:

Earnings Yield FCF Yield
Stock A 5% 4%
Stock B 10% 1%

In this example, Stock B has a higher earnings yield but a lower FCF yield, which can lead to two conclusions. The first is that earnings are being propped up by non-cash items like depreciation. The second conclusion is that FCF is being reduced by large capital expenditures.

Using the two yields in conjunction with each other provides a clearer picture of the company's valuation than either measure alone. Although earnings and FCF yields look backward, using these measures together with dividend yield may provide some forward-looking insight into the management's expectations of future earnings.

The Bottom Line
Dividend, earnings and FCF yields are applicable measures on their own, although their limitations are noteworthy. Understanding the inputs that go into each calculation better prepares the investor for the measure's usefulness. But used together, these yield measures can paint a clear picture of a strong or weak potential investment.


Monday, September 9, 2013

Floating Rates and Total Return

Mutual and ETF expert Doug Fabian discusses some intriguing ideas for income and growth, including floating rate securities and a favorite total return bond fund.

Steve Halpern: We're here today with mutual fund expert Doug Fabian. Doug, how are you doing?

Doug Fabian: Doing great, Steve.

Steve Halpern: You know, we should report, you mentioned that going forward, income investors will need to blend both income and growth, and in light of that philosophy, you've just combined two of your leading newsletters-Successful Investing, which was growth-oriented, and High Monthly Income, which, obviously, was an income publication.

Could you expand on the reason behind that move and describe for our listeners what they could expect from the new service going forward?

Doug Fabian: Well, I originally started the income newsletter from the request of long-term subscribers. Steve, my publication was started by my dad Dick Fabian in 1977, so we've been continuously publishing since then and we've had subscribers get older and then they wanted income from their investments.

But now I've blended the two newsletters; one, because I've gotten the request from subscribers to do so, but the real reason being, that people are living longer and I believe that they can't just go into complete income and depletion mode in their investment portfolios, but they still need some growth.

Also, I'm finding that many people have the goal of leaving some sort of legacy for their family, and that legacy will usually revolve around assets they're not going to spend in their own retirement, so they still want to have some growth on those assets.

For people who have been, or are familiar with the Fabian newsletters and what we do, they're now going to be able to get a combination of growth and income from their investments and I'm looking forward to delivering that message for them.

Steve Halpern: Thank you. You note that one way to diversify bond holdings and guard against rising interest rates is through floating rate securities. Could you explain what those are and how people would use them in their portfolio?

Doug Fabian: Certainly. You know, I was not ever that familiar with floating rate securities until about a year ago. I started researching, "What are we going to do when interest rates rise?" I found that there is another asset class. I consider this to be an alternative income play.

There are loans that are made in the marketplace, very large loans, and these loans are then securitized, meaning that they can be bought and sold depending upon the issuer and depending upon the credit worthiness and the like, so these senior loans-and they're called senior loans because of where they stand in the capital structure of a company.

These senior loans carry variable interest rates, so when interest rates rise, the interest on these loans is going to rise for whoever took the loans out.

So there are mutual funds and exchange traded funds that are invested in these senior loan securities, and they have different creditworthiness, so there are some higher yielding senior loans, there is some outstanding credit quality, so there are some investment grade senior loans.

You can purchase them in the form of a mutual fund. The Fidelity investments, for instance, have a floating rate securities fund that is of higher grade. We own this for our investment clients. And then also, Oppenheimer has a senior loan fund that they've had for over eight years and has an excellent track record.

And then there are now exchange traded funds in this floating rate or senior loan arena. The most popular of which is PowerShares Senior Loan (BKLN).

BKLN currently has a yield of 4.6% and it is not susceptible to rising interest rates, so it's a great way for somebody who still wants to have some fixed income component to their portfolio to be able to sell out of a bond fund that can be negatively impacted by high interest rates, and still receive a decent coupon from a senior loan invested security.

Steve Halpern: Now I know in your work you always focus heavily on making your readers aware of both risk and reward and something like this sounds like a great opportunity for income investors. I was wondering if you could touch on what the risks associated with this would be.

Doug Fabian: Well, the risks, and again, I always do research from that perspective. I looked back at history and found in the 2008 market crisis, if listeners will recall, part of that crisis was a credit crisis and so in a credit crisis situation, that's the most negative environment for senior loan securities.

One of the things that we watch, in terms of managing downside risk, is what is the spread between high yield and treasury bonds.

So if we receive yields, and credit spreads start to expand greatly, that would be kind of a red flag that we could be going into a period that could negatively affect senior loans.

These mutual funds, the ETFs weren't available in 2008, so I looked at the mutual funds price history, and they declined about 20% during the 2008 negative credit cycle, so there is downside risk that needs to be managed. You could put a 5% stop loss underneath a security, of course, to kind of manage that downside risk.

Sometimes I associate the stop loss with the yield that you're receiving on an annualized basis, that's how I came up with 5%, in this particular case, because I believe that you'll get a 5% income stream, so let's not risk any more than 5% principal when we're invested in these securities.

Steve Halpern: That's a fascinating approach. I also noticed the largest position in your income portfolio is a mutual fund called the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (DBLTX). Could you explain a little about that?

Doug Fabian: Well, I'm a big fan of Jeff Gundlach and the DoubleLine Group. Jeff Gundlach has a very interesting history in the investment arena. He was the bond king over at TCW for over 20 years and then went out and started his own firm, I believe the year was 2009.

There was a lot of controversy about that, because he took a lot of people with him from TCW to start DoubleLine. That's when I first started getting interested in what he was doing, and what really attracted me to Jeff Gundlach was his track record during 2008.

What people might not remember is, in the 2008 credit cycle we were just talking about, many bond funds performed extremely poorly and in that year treasury bonds had one of their most spectacular years ever.

Treasury bonds were up over 30% in calendar year 2008, but investment grade bonds, certainly junk bonds, many of the total return bond funds, had a horrible year, some were down 15%, 20%.

But Jeff Gundlach's fund, that he was running over at TCW, had a flat year that year and he actually forewarned investors of the coming crisis at that time in subprime, so I've just really respected this man's work.

He has done a fantastic job of running the DoubleLine Total Return Fund and I just have a lot of faith in his market calls in an area that I'm not an expert in myself.

Even in this year, where treasuries have fallen some 15% on a year to date basis, the DoubleLine Total Return Fund is generating a yield slightly under 5%, and the total return on a year to date basis is down 1%, so he's done an excellent job of managing risk, even in this very difficult interest rate rising environment that we're in, in 2013.

Steve Halpern: Finally, listeners might recall that I interviewed another Fabian recently, your son Dave (see Diamonds in the Rough). You must be very proud of his role in this business and his success.

Doug Fabian: Absolutely, he's doing a great job. He has worked hard to get his name out there, writing a lot of articles at Seeking Alpha and other websites and he's a third generation money manager for the Fabian family.

Steve Halpern: Well, thanks for joining us today, we appreciate all your insights.

Doug Fabian: Thank you, Steve.

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The expert featured in this column, Doug Fabian, may or may not own positions in any investment vehicle mentioned here. The views and opinions expressed are his or her own.

Can Apple Really Hit a $777 Analyst Price Target and New All-Time Highs?

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the beneficiary of what has become a very rare analyst upgrade for the case to buy Apple shares. The stock was initiated by Cantor Fitzgerald in new analyst coverage with a price target of $777 for the stock. Before you get too excited here, the analyst call is from Brian White who was formerly with Topeka Capital. It is an extremely bullish call, but from an analyst who was always bullish on Apple before.

Be advised that the analyst previously had a price target north of $1,000 for Apple during and after the boom, but earlier in 2013 White lowered his target down to an odd $888 target because Apple’s stock price had fallen so much.

White called the company’s fiscal 2014 a year for liftoff. The thesis is that the years of innovation will start to payoff over the coming year after a very competitive year in looking backwards. New products are expected, included the formerly much talked about AppleTV and an iWatch as well as refreshes of the iPhone and iPad models.

Apple shares rose 2% to $498.69 based upon this upgrade and with an up-day in the stock market. What is interesting is that this implies upside north of 55% for new investors. It also implies gains that would be about 10% higher than that former 52-week high and all-time high of $705.07.

This analyst call has a bit of irony or paradox to it. We consider it a regurgitated call. If this is the same analyst who was rating it before, a mere company moniker change does not necessarily mean it is a new call. Outside of that, we also cannot help but call this analyst upgrade price target out for being lower than before even if it is much higher than now.

We have no real problem with analyst calls due to changes in firms. It happens. That being said, getting back above that former all-time high over $700 is not likely going to be an easy task. The consensus price target is down at $527.17 as of Wednesday and the highest price target is $825 for Apple.

We think it is worth noting that Apple is back to be being the most valuable company by market capitalization worth some $453 billion now. For Apple to rise as much as Brian White hopes it can, Apple would be worth just over $700 billion minus the impact of any share buybacks retiring shares. The translation is that it is magically creating another $250 billion in market capitalization, and much of that has to come from real investors putting serious capital to work in Apple alone.