Saturday, November 24, 2012

Investors to Stay with Stocks, Latest Vanguard Report Finds

A new Vanguard study finds that most American investors continue to view equities as a critical component of long-term investment plans, although they remain wary of risk and possess more modest expectations for future returns, the fund group said today.

The Vanguard study, The Aftermath: Investor Attitudes in the Wake of the 2008-2009 Market Decline, examines the link between the economic crisis of 2008-2009 and the investment decisions made by American households. The study is based on a nationwide survey conducted in late May and early June 2009.

"Despite the public debate on the risks involved in equity investing through 401(k) retirement plans and target-date funds, the survey shows that most investors acknowledge the importance of equities in these types of vehicles," says Stephen Utkus, head of Vanguard Center for Retirement Research and one of the authors of the study.

Some 3,012 American investors, ages 21 to 79, in households with $5,000 or more in savings and investments were part of the study. The key findings are:

  • Many investors believe households should hold some stock market exposure right before and during retirement. Nearly 90% of respondents believe it is important to invest in equities in the years leading up to retirement. Seven in 10 respondents believed that some ongoing equity holdings are necessary during retirement.
  • The majority of investors held steady with their stock holdings. Whether due to inertia or a belief that their portfolios were suitably constructed, six in 10 households made no changes during the market decline. Somewhat surprisingly, while 21% of stock market investors reduced equity holdings and 5% sold all equities during that period, a fairly sizeable group of 17% increased stock exposure. Even among those selling all equities, most respondents plan to resume investing in the stock market.


Analysis of the survey results shows the decision to sell or reduce equity holdings was less related to concerns about heightened market risk than it was to several factors: first- or second-hand experience of a job loss or foreclosure during the crisis, whether the investment was in a taxable account, and the time to a planned retirement.

"The confluence of important economic factors with the market decline quite logically led to a greater sense of insecurity among some individuals," explains John Ameriks, co-author of the study and head of Vanguard Investment Counseling and Research. "But broadly speaking, the study results suggest that investors continue to believe equities are an important part of their portfolios despite the worst financial crisis in several generations."

  • Many investors understand stock market risk and believe it's still worth taking. Nearly three-quarters of respondents (73%) said they knew that significant market declines could occur. In response to a separate question, only 28% said they were completely surprised by the downturn. But while such declines may have been within their expectations, there were conflicting views of the future benefits of stock market investing. About half agreed that the stock market is a more dangerous place to invest than in the past, while half believed that the risks of stocks are worth taking.
  • Respondents believe future equity returns will be well below historic norms. Investors anticipated a median return of 7.5% on stock market investments, well below the 10% to 12% long-term average returns seen historically for the stock market.
  • Retirement may not be permanently impaired by market losses. Only 13% of respondents strongly agreed with the view that their retirement had been permanently impaired by the market decline. Those within 10 years of retirement and concerned about foreclosure and job loss were more worried about delaying retirement. In separate questions on how they would cope with the shortfall, 74% said they would reduce spending, 48% pointed to increasing savings, and 45% said it may be necessary to work longer.


Risk and return are joined at the head

BOSTON (MarketWatch) � Some people are afraid of making a mistake by taking on risk, while others take risks that lead to mistakes.

Such behaviors are the focus of the new book �Investment Mistakes Even Smart Investors Make � and How to Avoid Them,� by Larry Swedroe of Buckingham Asset Management in St. Louis, who is one of the most thoughtful financial advisers.

No matter your feelings about the market � if you think the current run will continue or you expect a downturn � the mistake comes when you let those feelings override long-term strategy.

That�s what investors need to guard against now. And anyone who avoids the bulk of the book�s 77 different errors is likely to reach the end of their investing lifetime pretty happy with the results.

That said, no blueprint will help an investor avoid all of the potential and theoretical booby-traps. Moreover, even the best investors make mistakes; the key is to avoid the giant ones from which there is no recovery, and to avoid being bled to death by an endless series of small errors.

Timing device

To see how it is impossible to embrace risk while trying to avoid mistakes, you have to look at the real differences between the two.

Click to Play Think you're a smart investor? Check your DNA

WSJ's Jason Zweig stops by Mean Street to discuss new research suggesting that DNA determines one's ability to make smart or risky investment decisions. Photo: Getty Images.

Risk is defined as �exposure to the chance of injury or loss,� while the dictionary definition for a mistake is �an error in action, calculation, opinion, or judgment caused by poor reasoning, carelessness, insufficient knowledge� and the like.

�People who say you�re making a mistake if you put your money at risk � if you do something that exposes you to a potential loss � don�t understand how risk works,� Swedroe said in an interview. �They�re getting out of the market because they see it as too risky, but with interest rates near zero there is a very big chance that they can�t generate the returns they need from riskless investments.

�There�s a risk in everything, so the mistake doesn�t come from taking risks � it�s from taking the wrong risks or taking risks in the wrong amount,� he added.

Investors need to find some moderation in a market that seems to bounce them from end-to-end of the greed/fear spectrum. While the temptation is to jump into stocks when it feels like things are going well and to stay on the sidelines when pain appears imminent, most people lack the skill in timing the market to make that work.

They give it a try, however, because of what they see as past mistakes.

Swedroe noted that a lot of investors look to the recent past and feel, for example, that they made an error being invested in 2008, at a time when the financial crisis buckled the stock market.

�They�re deciding � based on what happened � that they made a mistake being in the market,� Swedroe said, �when there was no way to see just how bad the problems were, and they are trying to avoid making the same mistake again even if that kind of stock market event is likely to happen just once or twice in a lifetime.

�They�re confusing strategy with outcome,,� he added. �They may have taken prudent risks that were appropriate, but then those risks actually showed up.�

Feeling lucky?

In short, it�s like the people who talk with financial advisers and say �I can tolerate risk, I just don�t want to lose any money.� They have no problem with the risks when the investment strategy is working in their favor, but when the outcome is less than expected, they�re convinced they�ve made a mistake.

Most financial advisers, for example, say that the average investor should always have some exposure to the stock market, with long-term money that can ride out the bumps and grinds to capture the long-term trend.

�The mistake most people made in 2008 wasn�t that they were invested in the stock market, it�s that they had, say, 80% of their assets there when they should have had maybe half of their portfolio there,� Swedroe noted. �The mistake wasn�t exposing their money to the market at a time that turned out to be bad, it was exposing too much of their money to the market regardless of the situation, because the losses they suffered � while unusual � obviously were not out of the realm of possibility.�

Confusing strategy and outcome is a way many investors let the ends justify their means.

Sadly, it�s also what leads to the kind of thinking that spurs someone to abandon long-term strategies and go for what looks good today. It�s how someone avoids the chance of losing money in the stock market but assumes the risk that their money won�t keep pace with inflation. The risks are different, but the potential downside is the same � that your money won�t go as far you need.

Top Stocks For 3/28/2012-8

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Friday October 30, 2009

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PowerSafe Technology Corporation (PSFT.PK) subsidiary Amplification Technologies Inc. (www.amplificationtechnologies.com) (ATI), is offering higher performance thermoelectrically cooled discrete amplification single photon counting solid state photodetectors. These photodetectors are mounted on a two stage thermoelectric cooler inside a hermetically sealed TO8 package and can be operated down to a temperature of -30oC.

State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), one of the world’s leading providers of financial services to institutional investors, today announced that it was selected by Storage Networking World (SNW) as one of the top honorees for the Fall 2009 “Best Practices in Storage” Awards Program and received the “Technology Innovation and Promise” award for its Standardized Accelerated Virtualized Eco-Friendly (SAVE) Storage initiative. SNW’s twice annual “Best Practices in Storage” Awards Program identifies and acknowledges excellence among users of storage technology. The award winners were selected by a panel of judges based on detailed case studies of the IT challenges and solutions implemented at each company. State Street was presented with the award this month at a ceremony hosted by SNW, in conjunction with IDG’s Computerworld and the Storage Networking Industry Association.

Inuvo(TM) (NYSE Amex: INUV) announces that it will release earnings for third quarter 2009 on Thursday, November 12, 2009. Richard K. Howe, Chief Executive Officer, and Gail L. Babitt, Chief Financial Officer, will then host a conference call at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time to review these results.

ICx Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq GS: ICXT), a developer of advanced sensor technologies for homeland security, force protection and commercial applications, announced today that it has been awarded a $3.6 million contract for the Pentagon Force Protection Agency (PFPA). As part of the contract, ICx will provide both Griffin(TM) and ChemSense(TM) instruments for installation in the Pentagon.

Rosetta Genomics (NASDAQ: ROSG) today announced that Ayelet Chajut, its Executive Vice President, R&D, Head of Molecular Biology will speak at the 6th International Conference on Circulating Nucleic Acids in Plasma and Serum (CNAPS-VI). The conference will be held November 9 through 11 in Hong Kong. Dr. Chajut’s presentation, “Circulating microRNA as a new generation of molecular diagnostic markers” will be made November 11.

Northeast Indiana Bancorp, Inc., (OTC Bulletin Board: NIDB), the parent company of First Federal Savings Bank, has announced that the Corporation will pay a cash dividend of $0.17 per common share. This represents a 3.0% increase over the Company’s previous quarter dividend of $0.165 per common share. The dividend will be payable on November 24, 2009 to shareholders of record on November 10, 2009.

Are You Getting the Best Out of Your 401k Plan?


When it comes to your future retirement, it is best to have your ducks in a row when the time comes to bask in the land of post-occupational bliss.

As any keen investor knows, it's best to prepare and plan. And thanks to the Internal Revenue Service, a handy checklist has been created to make sure you know exactly what you can expect from your 401(k).

The IRS surveyed a sample of the 500,000 401(k) retirement plans covering 60 million Americans and brought to light features that employees can anticipate and demand of their plans from their employers...

Policies like after-tax contributions, employer matching, and vesting among others that can have a significant impact on your potential retirement plan.

The Interim Report has been released, though a much more detailed report is due out by the end of the year. The questionnaire covered 1,200 plans (plans that did not respond to the survey were audited).

Employers, pay attention! You can use this list as the point of reference in deciding whether you should amend your plan to add new features or enhance benefits policies.

For employees, this list may prove helpful in gathering support for what you'd like to add to your plan.

Here are a few statistics before digging deep into the key features...

One feature that might have employees more interested if offered more broadly is allowing employee after-tax contributions, which are separate from a Roth option. Only 4% of the plans the IRS surveyed allowed these after-tax contributions. The survey discovered 67% of employees who were making after-tax contributions increased the dollar amount of those contributions between 2006 and 2008, meaning this feature is incredibly valuable for particular employees.

Another popular feature that might be missing from your employer's plan is a Roth option. Only 22% of 401(k) plans surveyed offer a Roth option, while 65% of employers whose plans don't offer a Roth option cite the reason as a lack of interest from employees.

As Forbes explains:

Yet Roth savings can be very powerful as the earnings and eventual distributions are tax-free, leaving retirees with a tax-free bucket to draw on when managing their retirement income and retirement tax bracket. For 2012, employees can contribute $17,000 a year to a 401(k) account, or $22,500 if they are 50 or older.

As for the list of various other features that could be added to your 401(k) plan and the respected percentages of plans surveyed with that feature:

  • No age requirement to sign up (20%)
  • Employees can change deferral elections at any time (41%)
  • Permit after-tax contributions (4%)
  • Catch-up contributions allowed for employees at age 50 (96%)
  • No service requirement (minimum time on the job) needed to make contributions (13%)
  • Employer matching contributions program in place (68%)
  • Hardship distributions permitted (76%)
  • Employee loans permitted (65%)

Now that you have your list and an idea of what other employers are doing, speak with your employer about adding various features you'd find beneficial to your plan.

If you're an employer, talk with your plan holders on what they might be interested in. You might be surprised what your employees are interested in and how much reforming a retirement plan can add to quality of life at work...

 

International REITs Offer Currency and Inflation Hedge

Among dividend paying equity ETFs, REITs continue to out perform other dividend stock ETFs. Both international (RWX) and US REITs (IYR), (VNQ) are ranked at the top two spots in the following trend score table. This trend has lasted several months now. For more detailed performance, please look here.

Assets Class Symbols 03/09
Trend
Score
03/02
Trend
Score
Direction
SPDR DJ Wilshire Intl Real Estate (RWX) 9.74% 10.04% v
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (IYR) 9.61% 10.0% v
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) 9.41% 10.12% v
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) 9.2% 9.09% ^
Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (VYM) 9.15% 9.39% v
iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY) 8.42% 7.38% ^
First Trust Value Line Dividend Index (FVD) 8.22% 7.75% ^
WisdomTree Emerging Market Equity Income (DEM) 8.12% 7.59% ^
iShares Dow Jones Intl Select Div Idx (IDV) 8.05% 9.23% v
SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY) 7.95% 7.14% ^
PowerShares Intl Dividend Achievers (PID) 7.84% 9.12% v
PowerShares HighYield Dividend Achievers (PEY) 7.11% 6.33% ^
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) 6.48% 8.35% v
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) 6.3% 5.21% ^
iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index (PFF) 3.38% 3.4% v
The trend score is defined as the average of 1,4,13,26 and 52 week total returns (including dividend reinvested).

International REITs (RWX), (DRW), (IFGL) have risen along with the global economic recovery. The sector suffered staggering a loss in 2008: SPDR Dow Jones Intl Real Estate (RWX) had a 51% loss, WisdomTree International Real Estate (DRW) was -57% and iShares FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Dev Real Estate (IFGL) was -52%. Since then, the sector has recovered dramatically, though from the following table, it has still had negative annual returns in the last 3 years.


As of 3/04/2011

Description Symbol 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr Avg. Volume(K) 1 Yr Sharpe
SPDR Dow Jones Intl Real Estat (RWX) 24.45% -3.57% NA 312 106.56%
iShares FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Dev Real Estate (IFGL) 13.32% -5.29% NA 66 65.6%
SPDR Dow Jones Global Real Estate (RWO) 27.78% NA NA 71 144.86%
iShares S&P Dev ex-US Property (WPS) 16.81% -4.01% NA 20 79.7%
WisdomTree International Real Estate (DRW) 22.25% -3.97% NA 32 99.26%

RTP, BHP, Vale Threatened by China Iron Maneuvers

Well, here it is, the end of easy street for iron miners producers Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP) of Australia, and Brazil’s Vale S.A. (VALEThe Globe & Mail this morning reportsthat talks with China over prices have “gone into overtime.” China’s steel mills, which consume half the world’s iron ore, looked unlikely to complete negotiations with RTP and the rest by today’s deadline for annual ore price agreements, “pushing China … onto the volatile spot market.” Globe cites Chinese steel industry sources.

China buying ore on the open market, outside of agreed contracts, would create “a huge derivatives market” in iron ore, which could erode the power of BHP and RTP and Vale to collect what they need to make a profit.

In effect, BHP and RTP, which are merging, and Vale, are having a tougher time pushing China than are computer makers, who this morning scored a victory in China’s agreement to postpone an order mandating Web filtering software on all new PCs in China.

I penned a negative piece on just this possibility a few weeks ago, when it was announced that BHP and RTP would merge, after RTP rejected an offer from China’s Chinalco steel mill.

BHP shares today are up 55 cents, or 1%, at $55.95, RTP shares are down 11 cents, or .1%, at $168.84, and Vale shares are up 8 cents, or .5%, at $17.91.

Moodys Downgrades Nordic Banks, Investors Yawn

Copenhagen won the backing of the E.U. to cut the influence of rating agencies.

Those AAA rated subprime loans certainly didn’t help, and now comes fresh evidence that investors are increasingly ignoring rating actions at the ‘big three’ in favor of their own analysis.

The latest response to the Moody’s Investors Service downgrade of the biggest Nordic banks was rising bond and share prices, according to Bloomberg, the exact opposite of what should happen when a seismic event of this magnitude occurs.

“The reaction is the latest sign that investors are paying less attention to the views of rating companies and relying more on their own analysis to determine whether to buy or sell,” the news service says.

“We can see for ourselves just how strong the Swedish banks are so we don’t place much weight on what rating agencies tell us,” Nicklas Granath, a partner at the Stockholm-based asset manager Norron who helps manage about $200 million, said in an interview with Bloomberg. “More and more the market is likely to take the same approach.”

Bloomberg says “Investors are showing greater willingness to ignore Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings” as European pokicymakers try to reduce the raters' influence. “Denmark, which holds the European Union presidency, said this month it won backing in the 27-member bloc to curtail the influence of the raters. Danish banks have started firing Moody’s, while Swedbank AB, one of Sweden’s four biggest lenders, has said the views published by rating companies are ‘backward looking.’”

Moody’s last week lowered Sweden’s Nordea Bank and Svenska Handelsbanken to Aa3, and Norway’s DNB Bank to A1, all single-level downgrades. Credit grades of SEB (SEBA) and Swedbank were affirmed while Landshypotek was cut two steps to Baa2. All ratings carry stable outlooks, Moody’s said.

And the reaction, according to Bloomberg?

“Handelsbanken’s shares rose on the day after the May 24 downgrade. Nordea was up as much as 1.4% and DNB climbed as much as 1.6%, before erasing gains that day. Nordea shares advanced as much as 1.3% and were trading lower by 0.3% to 54.45 kronor. Handelsbanken increased 0.8% , topping the 0.9% loss of the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index.

“The yield on Nordea’s benchmark 1.25 billion-euro note maturing in 2019 has declined four basis points to 2.61% over the past three days, while the yield on a five-year Handelsbanken dollar note slid two basis points to 2.60% on May 25. The yield moves inversely to price. “

A similar response has also been seen in the sovereign debt markets, the news service concludes, where U.S. Treasuries last year rose after S&P stripped the world’s largest economy of its top grade. The Bank of England said in March there was “little market reaction” to Moody’s decision to cut the outlook on its rating to negative.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Smaller Energy Stocks Among the Large Caps Look Doubly Interesting


Disclosure of a legendary investor’s 5.8% stake boosts the stock price of Chesapeake Energy (CHK) by 8% in one day and may have implications for unlocking value in peer stocks including buy recommendations Devon Energy (DVN), EOG Resources (EOG) and Encana (ECA). More than two decades ago, Mr. Icahn’s investment influenced the restructuring of Phillips Petroleum, now part of buy-recommended ConocoPhillips (COP) and USX Corporation, now a separate U.S. Steel (X) and buy-recommended Marathon Oil (MRO).

CHK stock has appreciated only modestly since the chairman sold all his stock at the bottom of the market in October 2008. At a low McDep Ratio and low credibility, CHK is a classic target for a proactive financier. Meanwhile, DVN has already undertaken major actions to unlock value as it has concentrated its resources, retired debt and is repurchasing stock at a rate of about 0.5% a month. Though EOG manages its finances conservatively, an activist investor might advocate taking on some debt to finance stock repurchase. ECA offers attractive long-term value concentrated on a growth resource while high cash flow multiple at today’s low natural gas price may be holding back stock price.

A widening gap in McDep Ratio between small cap and large cap stocks in the past year attests to rising resource value. Logically, those stocks at the smaller end of the large cap spectrum become doubly interesting for both fundamental value and the increasing likelihood of being targeted for acquisition, leveraged buyout, or stimulus from a change agent.

Originally published on December 21, 2010.

Top Stocks For 2012-1-16-2

DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

Monday August 24, 2009


Stocks Upgraded Today

CompanyTickerBrokerage FirmRatings ChangePrice Target
Sinclair BroadcastSBGIBenchmarkHold � Buy$6
BrocadeBRCDArgusHold � Buy$11
Zimmer HldgsZMHThomas WeiselMarket Weight � Overweight
MicrosemiMSCCThomas WeiselMarket Weight � Overweight
AshlandASHKeyBanc Capital MktsHold � Buy$53
American ExpressAXPBarclays CapitalEqual Weight � Overweight$28 � $38
Discover Financial ServicesDFSBarclays CapitalEqual Weight � Overweight$30 � $50
Advanced MicroAMDCitigroupHold � Buy
Repsol SAREPUBSNeutral � Buy
WPP Group plcWPPGYDeutsche SecuritiesHold � Buy

Stocks Downgraded Today

CompanyTickerBrokerage FirmRatings ChangePrice Target
Natural ResourceNRPCitigroupHold � Sell
AirmediaAMCNSusquehanna FinancialNeutral � Negative
StrykerSYKThomas WeiselOverweight � Market Weight
KC SouthernKSUUBSBuy � Neutral
Toll BrothersTOLCitigroupBuy � Hold
CreeCREEKaufman BrosBuy � Hold$36

5 Reasons to Get a Whiff of Coty’s IPO

Bring up a name like Sally Hansen to any stodgy guy on Wall Street, and I�m guessing the reaction would be something along the lines of �Don�t know, don�t care.� But Sally Hansen — a nail polish brand, for those who don’t know — is a household name to many consumers and just one of countless popular brands owned by fragrance and cosmetics maker Coty.

Coty, by the way, just�announced a $700 million IPO.�Maybe�that will get the attention of the old guys on Wall Street. It definitely should.

5 One-Time IPO Stars Worth Considering

While IPOs still might be getting a bad rap from the Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) fiasco, Coty is looking strong. Here are five simple reasons you shouldn�t let this IPO pass under your nose. To start, the company is �

Everywhere

Just browse through some of its brands, and you’ll recognize products you see all the time: Rimmel cosmetics, OPI nail polish, Adidas fragrances, Calvin Klein cologne. Plus, enough celebrities have a fragrance line owned by Coty that laundry-listing them all would make you feel like�you�re reading TMZ, not�InvestorPlace.

I think you get the point. The company has its hands in every cookie jar, unlike a competitor like Revlon (NYSE:REV) that simply makes Revlon products. Boooring.

Coty can thus attract consumers from every demographic. And it�s not just a diversity of products, but a diversity of products that each has a mass market and that are all �

Established

Coty has been around for more than 100 years, since Fran�ois Coty started it in 1904. That incumbency also is comforting since it isn�t selling a new, hot technology (like, oh, I don�t know � Facebook) that could be in today and out tomorrow.

No, Coty keeps it simple. People need to spray on something to smell good, put on something to make their faces pretty and fancy up their nails to look presentable — demand for such products probably won�t dry up anytime soon.

Plus, Coty isn’t trapped in brick-and-mortar or relying on a gimmick like now-struggling Avon (NYSE:AVP) did with its door-to-door salesladies. It stays on the manufacturing end of it all. Even as retailing habits shift to buying more online, the company will continue to connect with customers by supplying online retail sites.

But at the same time, Coty also keeps �

Expanding

Don�t confuse established with stagnant, because Coty is never sitting still.

Here are a few numbers: Last year, Coty did $4.1 billion in sales — an 18% increase from $3.48 billion in 2010 — and for 2012, it expects to grow sales at least 10% year-over-year to a minimum of $4.5 billion, according to Reuters.

Coty also made a recent attempt to buy Avon — scratch that, two attempts. And that was coming off a busy 2010 that saw four acquisitions — Dr. Scheller Cosmetics, philosophy, OPI and TJoy — in a span of two months.

Diversity like Coty�s doesn�t happen overnight, though. Those purchases were on top of the countless others in the past century, including that of Del Labs and the global fragrance business of multinational giant Unilever (NYSE:UL).

I�d be surprised if the $700 million Coty expects to raise with its public offering isn�t used for more of the same, especially considering that CEO Bernd Beetz�s management philosophy is nothing other than �innovate or die.�

There�s more, though. The company also is …

Loaded with Loyalty5 One-Time IPO Stars Worth Considering

That�s just the culture of cosmetics. During a lunchtime conversation with friends the other day, the subject turned to what nail polish everyone uses. (I know, girl talk is riveting.) Not only did each person name a specific brand, but each one gave a specific reason about why that brand was best — price, quality, color, you get it.

Plus, the three brands named were all owned by Coty.

But if you don�t trust hearsay, trust this: The Brand Keys “Loyalty Leaders” report agreed that consumers don�t just stick with their favorite cosmetic brand, but do so even in a bad economy.

That�s because these products, even though they might seem like it, actually are �

Not a Luxury

I don�t care that Coty calls some of its products �prestige,� or that talk of its anticipated IPO often references the success of luxury companies like Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) — which is up 80% since its recent IPO. Sure, that success is a good sign.

But Coty has a luxury feel without the same luxury status. See, cosmetics and fragrances are day-to-day requirements — no matter the price, no matter the economy — especially in a society as appearance-oriented and anti-aging as ours.

Just look at how Ulta (NASDAQ:ULTA), the salon and cosmetics company, has been faring: YTD returns are up 45% and three-year returns are up a whopping 800%!

That�s because, for women, beauty products are routine — oftentimes a necessity. And smelling good (which we can�t forget, since fragrances made up over half of Coty’s revenue last year) usually doesn�t get de-prioritized in a down year.

But that brings us full circle to the very first point: A variety of products also means a variety of price points. Even if a recession does force consumers to save some cash by choosing a new scent, there�s a pretty good chance those dollars still are going to the same place.

Well played, Coty.

The bottom line? This is a company with a strong foundation and popular brands in its corner that give it an edge — probably part of the reason Berkshire Hathaway�s (NYSE:BRK.A, BRK.B) Warren Buffett already owns a 7.5% stake, and definitely a reason to keep an eye out for its IPO.

As of this writing, Alyssa Oursler did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Analyzing Noteworthy Buys And Sells Among Mega-Cap Stocks Thursday

We covered Thursday's noteworthy insider buys and sells in a prior article earlier today. The following are additional noteworthy insider trades reported on Thursday, but limited to extremely large-cap or mega-cap companies. Mega-caps are usually the biggest companies in the investment universe, and are generally household names. There is no exact definition, but generally they are thought of as companies with market-caps in excess of $100 billion, which number between 80 and 90 among U.S. exchange traded equities. For the purposes of this article, we have extended that range to over $50 billion, and present below the most notable trades reported on Thursday among extremely large-cap or mega-cap stocks; notable based on the dollar amount sold, the number of insiders selling, and based on whether the overall buying or selling represents a strong pick-up based on historical buying and selling in the stock (for more info on how to interpret insider trades, please refer to the end of this article):

Bank of America (BAC): BAC is a global financial services company providing banking and financial services to individuals, small- and middle-market businesses, corporations and governments primarily in the U.S., and also internationally in over 40 foreign countries. On Thursday, Director Susan Bies filed SEC Form 4 indicating that she purchased 50,000 shares for $0.37 million, adding to her prior 33,043 share position in the company. Insider buying is rare at BAC, as in comparison, insiders purchased a total of 77,000 shares in the past year. BAC recently reported its Q4, with earnings in-line and revenues slightly beating estimates. The stock trades have recently run-up over 50% from December lows and trades at a discount 7 forward P/E and 0.3 P/B compared to averages of 9.6 and 0.7 for the major regional banks group, while earnings are projected to fall from $1.30 in 2011 to $1.11 in 2013.

US Bancorp (USB): USB is a super-regional financial services holding company, operating full-service branch offices and ATMs, and providing a full range of banking and financial services including brokerage, insurance, investment, mortgage, trust and payment services to individuals, institutions and corporations. On Thursday, three insiders, Vice Chairman Joseph Hoesley (20,639 shares), EVP Jennie Carlson (66,952 shares) and EVP Lee Mitau (5,000 shares), filed SEC Forms 4 indicating that they sold a total of 92,591 shares for $2.65 million, with the majority of the shares sold acquired as a result of exercising options. In comparison, insiders sold a total of 0.59 million shares in the past year. USB is undervalued, trading at a current 12.3 P/E on a TTM basis, and at 1.7 P/B, compared to the averages of 11.8 and 0.9 for its peers among major regional banks.

AT&T Inc. (T): AT&T is a global telecommunications services provider, offering local exchange, long distance, network access and wireless services to consumers, businesses and other service providers. On Thursday, four insiders, Chief Strategy Officer John Stankey (57,366 shares), Sr. EVP Donald Watts (26,586 shares), Sr. EVP Catherine Coughlin (31,423 share) and Group President Forrest Miller (66,216 shares), filed SEC Forms 4 indicating that they sold a total of 0.18 million shares for $5.4 million; the shares sold by Mr. Stankey, Mr. Watts and Ms. Coughlin were acquired as a result of exercising options. This is in addition to the sale of 66,279 shares by Mr. Miller that we reported just earlier this week, so that overall insiders this week reported selling 0.25 million shares. In comparison, insiders sold only an additional 37,000 shares in the past year. AT&T has been almost flat during the last decade, and it currently trades at 11-12 forward P/E and 1.6 P/B compared to averages of 14.6 and 1.7 for the diversified communications group.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): CAT is the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines and industrial gas turbines. On Thursday, Group President Steven Wunning filed SEC Form 4 indicating that he exercised options and sold the resulting 126,000 shares for $14.0 million, ending with 75,863 shares in direct and 951 shares in indirect holdings after the sale. In comparison, insiders sold a total of 0.42 million shares in the past year. CAT just last week reported a stellar Q4, obliterating analyst earnings estimates ($2.32 v/s $1.77) and also beating on revenue ($17.24 billion v/s $16.02 billion), and guiding both revenue and earnings above consensus. The stock currently trades at 10-11 forward P/E and 5.5 P/B compared to averages of 10.6 and 2.5 for the construction and mining machinery group.

United Parcel Service (UPS): UPS delivers packages and documents throughout the U.S. and over 220 other countries. On Thursday, SVP Christine Owens filed SEC Form 4 indicating that she sold 20,569 shares for $1.6 million, pursuant to a 10b5-1 plan, and ending with no shares after the sale. In comparison, insiders sold a total of 82,342 shares in the past year. UPS just this Tuesday reported a mixed Q4, beating on earnings ($1.28 v/s $1.25) and missing on revenues ($14.2 billion v/s $14.4 billion). Its shares currently trade at 14 forward P/E and 9.5 P/B compared to averages of 12.3 and 2.5 for the air freight group.

General Electric Co. (GE): GE is one of the largest and most diversified industrial conglomerates in the world, manufacturing a wide variety of products for the utility, consumer, industrial, healthcare, transportation and other industries. On Thursday, Director Alan Lafley filed SEC Form 4 indicating that he purchased 10,000 shares for $0.19 million, increasing his holdings to 62,075 shares in direct and 18,446 shares in indirect holdings. Insider buying is rare at GE, and in fact the last time an insider bought GE stock was in May of 2011, and in total insiders purchased 45,000 shares in the past year. GE trades at 10-11 forward P/E and 1.7 P/B compared to averages of 14.8 and 1.7 for its peers in the diversified conglomerate group.

General Discussion on Insider Trading

The reports in this series identify last week's insider trades of noteworthy significance by sector or industry group, either by virtue of their timing, their size, the number of insiders buying or selling, based on who is buying or selling, or by the trend of their buys and sales over the long-term. The rest of the series by sector and by week can be accessed from our author page.

What is Insider Trading?: Insider trading as defined here (and by the SEC) includes not just corporate insiders such as company executives and key employees, but also directors and large shareholders that have access to non-public information. Large shareholders are defined by the SEC for this purpose are those having beneficial ownership of 10% of more of the firm's equity securities (including institutional investors). Also, in the U.S., "insiders" are not just limited to corporate officials and major shareholders, but also when a corporate insider "tips" a friend about material non-public information, the duty the corporate insider owes the company is now imputed to the friend who is now in violation of a duty to the company if he or she trades on the basis of that information. The U.S. is generally viewed as having the strictest laws against illegal insider trading, and makes the most serious efforts to enforce them.

While most insider trading is legal, the term is commonly used to refer to the illegal kind when a corporate insider trades based on material non-public information that can have an effect on the company's share price. By law, insiders are prohibited from trading based on non-public information, but most believe that such trading does occur around the edges. The thinking goes that corporate insiders, because of their access, have the most up-to-date information on the health of their companies and the industries they operate in. Investors, as a result, can benefit from the timely knowledge of insider transactions. In fact, one University of Michigan study found that when executives bought shares in their own companies, the stocks tended to outperform the total market by 8.9% over the next 12 months. Conversely, when they sold shares, the stock underperformed by 5.4%.

Timeliness of Information: Like in the 13-D and 13-G filings for Institutions, the SEC Forms 3 and 4 on insider filings are extremely timely, and hence of greater significance, as they must be reported within two business days of the trade.

Insider Buying More Informative than Selling: As a rule, insider buys are more informative than sells. This is because insiders sell often, and they sell for a variety of reasons that may be completely unrelated to the health of the company, including, for example, to diversity their holdings or to pay for an upcoming personal expense. In contrast, insider buying is relatively uncommon, and since they have an exclusive window into their own company's performance, it is reasonable to presume that they probably have good reasons based on information at their disposal when they are risking their own assets to buy company stock.

Regular and Automatic Trades: Insider trades may be regular trades, or they may be automatic trades made under SEC Rule 10b5-1. It is generally believed that regular insider share purchases and sales carry more predictive value as they are made voluntarily by insiders. Conversely, trades made under SEC Rule 10b5-1, called "Automatic Buys" and "Automatic Sells," are part of a pre-determined plan or contract, and it is assumed that the plan was created before the insider had any privileged non-public information. Generally, almost all automatic trades are sells, not buys.

Furthermore, even automated trades made under 10b5-1 have some informative or predictive value due to loopholes in the rule that, for example, allow the insider to cancel the trading plan without any penalty or legal liability. So, the insider could set up a 10b5-1 trading plan before they have inside information (for example, from a quarterly report and guidance) while retaining the option to later cancel the plan based on the inside information. So, in effect, the execution of an automated trade also carries some predictive value as insiders retain the option under the existing rules to cancel their trades without penalty or legal liability.

Credit: Fundamental data in this article were based on SEC filings, I-Metrix by Edgar Online, Zacks Investment Research, Thomson Reuters and Briefing.com. The information and data is believed to be accurate, but no guarantees or representations are made.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. Further, these are our opinions and we may be wrong. We may have positions in securities mentioned in this article. You should take this into consideration before acting on any advice given in this article. If this makes you uncomfortable, then do not listen to our thoughts and opinions. The contents of this article do not take into consideration your individual investment objectives so consult with your own financial adviser before making an investment decision. Investing includes certain risks including loss of principal.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Should You Get Out of Seadrill Before Next Quarter?

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Seadrill (NYSE: SDRL  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Seadrill do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Seadrill sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. As another reality check, it's reasonable to consider what a normal DSO figure might look like in this space.

Company

LFQ Revenue

DSO

Seadrill $1,031 66
Ensco (NYSE: ESV  ) $916 63
Diamond Offshore Drilling (NYSE: DO  ) $878 64
Transocean (NYSE: RIG  ) $2,242 92

Source: S&P Capital IQ. DSO calculated from average AR. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. LFQ = last fiscal quarter. Dollar figures in millions.

Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, so don't consider this the final word -- just a way to add some context to the numbers. But let's get back to our original question: Will Seadrill miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Seadrill's year-over-year revenue shrank 3.7%, and its AR grew 20.5%. That's a yellow flag. End-of-quarter DSO increased 25.2% over the prior-year quarter. It was down 11.4% versus the prior quarter. That demands a good explanation. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

  • Add Seadrill to My Watchlist.
  • Add Ensco to My Watchlist.
  • Add Diamond Offshore Drilling to My Watchlist.
  • Add Transocean to My Watchlist.

Why Fusion-io Shares Soared

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of data storage specialist Fusion-io (NYSE: FIO  ) climbed 11% today on a report that the company is working on an original equipment manufacturing deal with giant Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) .

So what: If the deal gets done, Wall Street analyst Piper Jaffray noted that Cisco could quickly represent 10% of Fusion-io's business over the next three to four quarters. Additionally, Piper estimates that Fusion-io's Facebook revenue could double to about $200 million in 2012, giving investors plenty of reason to increase their own growth estimates.

Now what: Don't let today's pop keep you from looking into the stock. Piper maintained its outperform rating with a price target of $38, representing about 40% worth of upside left to the current price. When you couple the tailwinds working in Fusion-io's favor with the fact the stock is still well off its November highs of $41.70, Piper's target seems like a reasonable bet.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

AZO: "Our most difficult quarterly comparison in a long time"

Executives

William T. Giles - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President of Information Technology, Finance & Store Development and Treasurer

Unknown Executive -

William C. Rhodes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer and President

Analysts

Patrick Palfrey - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division

Christopher Horvers - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division

Matthew J. Fassler - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

John R. Lawrence - Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc., Research Division

Aram Rubinson - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Kate McShane - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Simeon Gutman - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division

iShares South Korea ETF Is Emerging as an Asian Leader

South Korea is becoming a market leader as it aggressively pushes into other markets with its innovative high-tech products. The country’s potential hasn’t gone unnoticed, and investors have been throwing money at South Korea’s markets and ETF.

South Korea’s ETF (EWY) took a spill on Friday as one of the county’s naval vessels sank near the border of North Korea, but will it leave any permanent damage? Although details about the incident are spotty, few analysts seem to believe so.

That’s because it otherwise seems like there’s little not to like about the South Korean economy lately. South Korea, a leading manufacturer of microchips, LCD panels and automobiles, is one of Asia’s fastest growing economies and the country has experienced the greatest increase in per-capita GDP since the mid-1960s, remarks Michael Schuman for TIME.

  • China has been pushing around other Asian countries as it encroaches on leading sectors and competing with even lower costs. Still, Korea has maintained an edge over China by switching gears from a developing economy based on manufacturing into an advanced country that is increasingly based on innovation.
  • Additionally, Korean companies have been aggressively pushing into markets such as India and China, outmaneuvering Japan in these key economies. Korea has the potential to become a leader in these markets and direct where industries will be heading.
  • Foreign investors bought $3.76 billion worth of stocks in South Korea’s stock markets and purchased $15.3 billion in local bonds this year as optimism about an economic recovery and amply liquidity worldwide remain high, according to Bernama. Korean bonds have become favorable on growing expectations that the Citigroup’s World Government Bond Index may soon include Korean Treasury bonds.
  • Cho Jae-hoon, a senior analyst at Daewoo Securities Co. believes that “foreign investors turned their eyes to Korean assets amid mixed favorable conditions: the local currency’s ascent to the dollar, earnings momentum by Korean firms and the low probability of a rate hike in Korea in the near term.”
  • South Korea’s economy is expected to expand about 5% this year.
  • iShares MSCI South Korea (EWY)

Max Chen contributed to this article.

Disclosure: None

Ensigns Flown In England

From 2002 to the year 2004 I lived in the United Kingdom, in the area of London to be a little more specific. During my time in England I observed all kinds of British flags hoisted on British flagpoles throughout this exciting capital city. Interestingly, different country flags are used this day and age in the United Kingdom.

The flag of England features the St George’s cross, which has been very popular since the 13th century. I am told that this cross was derived from participation in the Crusades.

Over time, the flag design, which features the St George’s cross, was used more often. The cross of St George was hoisted on naval type flag poles on vessels for many years. Today, the cross is hoisted on a jack to represent an admiral. Some on land have confused this flag for the one that is used on behalf of the Church of England. In today’s many sport’s events, the St George’s cross is very much prominent.

There is an substantial difference between the flags flown by Wales and England. The flag of Wales is derived from a badge-flag of the Tudor period. It is in the Tudor livery colors of green and white (also symbolized by the leek), with the traditional Red Dragon over all. This flag was given official status by a government statement in ’58 after an unsuccessful attempt to replace it with one bearing the royal badge of Wales.

This island of Guernsey is one of the Channel Islands, and located further from the main island of England than it is from the country of France. Even though owned by the monarchy, the island is under rule of its own government. For many years, the flag hoisted on local flag poles was the flag that featured the cross of St George. This was changed in 1985, when a cross like that seen on the “gonfanon” of William the Conqueror was added over the red one.

In the past, the flag of Northern Ireland was not the Union Jack. This territory’s flag existed for some twenty years and was a banner of the arms of the government of Northern Ireland.

Many historic flags, even though not officially in use, can still be purchases as (good) replicas. At times, one can observe these flags hoisted on garden flag poles.

Author is a former flag expert with over 20 years of experience in the area of flagpoles.

Today in Commodities: Fighting Against the Dollar

The inverse relationship in the dollar and commodities was very evident this week, so keep it on your radar.

On the week, Crude appreciated just over 4% taking prices in the front month near $113/barrel. Very impressive move for the bulls, but perhaps more stunning was the ascent of the distillates, with RBOB up 3.5% and heating oil higher by nearly 6%. My question is: At what price we will see demand destruction? We would not rule out a 3-5% correction, so do not get too long in the tooth. Natural gas has finished lower for six sessions in a row, but the 11% plus correction should be used as a buying opportunity. We’re suggesting purchasing July 50 cent call spreads and on signs of an interim bottom we will be buying June futures for clients. The indices should finish flat on the week but stiff resistance appears to be forming, so longs should book profits and aggressive traders could institute shorts and add on a confirmation of a trade lower. Our favored play is June put options in the ES.

The U.S. dollar posted a fresh 2011 low today as all majors were higher; the euro and Swissie were the standouts. Clients hold shorts in the euro and Aussie and are currently underwater. We would remain in both for now and look to add if prices start to rollover. A new recommendation: Aggressive traders could scale into longs in the yen with tight stops.

We are neutral in lean hogs having lifted client’s shorts yesterday at a profit … stay tuned. As for live cattle, we will be looking for a buy level in June next week ideally closer to $1.15.

Relentless moves in gold and silver today, as I had to look twice, thinking my eyes were deceiving me. Silver picked up over 5% this week and gold appreciated just over 3%. We missed it and do not like either at these levels.

Aggressive traders could buy cocoa and sell cotton at their current levels. We have a target of July cocoa at 3300 and $1.75 in July cotton. We’re suggesting buying December corn on a correction, are okay buying November soybeans at current levels and have finally tuned the corner on the CBOT/KCBOT wheat spread.

As for the debt complex this week, it was not good for the bulls, though we still like buying weakness in 10-yr notes as we feel a bounce is coming … trade accordingly.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Generate Real Profits Synthetically

Want to establish a profitable stock position in top-dollar stocks before they go even higher?

You can use options to create a stock position — a synthetic one — with the cash you currently have in your trading account and without the specter of a margin call threatening to jeopardize your trading position.

When you create a synthetic stock position, you’re simply buying to open (or selling to open) a call option while selling to open (or buying to open) a put option that share a strike price and expiration month.

Just like you can buy stock or short stock, you have the ability to simulate both long and short stock positions synthetically.

You can create a long synthetic stock position, which is a bullish endeavor just like buying a stock to hold long in your account. In this case, you would buy a call and sell its corresponding put. You can also create a short synthetic stock position by selling calls and buying the opposite puts.

By performing this strategy on a 1-to-1, call-to-put ratio, you can position yourself to take advantage of the price swings that could move the stock but with a lower cash outlay for a similar risk-vs.-reward scenario.

For instance, if ABC Company is trading in the $200 area and you predicting a terrific outlook for the stock in the coming months, you could look at the January 2010 options at the $200 strike price. A synthetic long position would end up with a $3 cost per share, or $300 per contract, to represent a 100-share position in the underlying stock.

Here’s how that would work. You would:

  • Buy 1 ABC January 230 Call at $20, Sell 1 ABC January 230 Put at $17
  • The $20 for the long call is money you would spend, while you would collect a $17 credit for the short put, for a total cash outlay of $3. So for $300 per contract, you’re controlling 100 shares for just a little more than the cost of a single share of the underlying stock!

    If you’re accustomed to buying long calls, you typically buy those with the expectation that the stock will rise — or continue to rise — above the strike price. But the advantage of having the short put position is to offset your initial cash outlay.

    Whether the stock goes up or down, both sides of this trade will travel in tandem. If the stock goes up, the call option will move in-the-money and be valuable on its own. The put will decrease in value, where you can buy it back without giving up all premium you collected at the outset of the trade.

    It would be ideal if put you sold at $17 expired worthless, but if you do have to buy it back, it would hurt a lot less if you only had to pay back a fraction of that — especially if that call you bought at $20 keeps increasing in value. That’s what can make synthetic stock positions a win-win situation!

    As with all stock and option trading strategies, there are risks. If the stock drops dramatically, you would need to buy back the short position, possibly at a higher premium than you collected for it, and the value of the call will drop as well. (Remember that both call-buying and put-selling, the strategies you used to initiate this trade, are both bullish bets that bank on the stock value increasing during your options’ lifespan.)

    With any short position, the risk of “assignment” comes into play. In the case of the short put, someone who owns the long put could exercise his or her right to sell (or “put”) shares to you at the strike price, thereby turning your synthetic stock position into an actual one. But if you’re trading options on a stock you want to own, the trading risk of ending up with a long stock position might end up being a reward.

    When you’ve got good, solid stocks that typically tend to ride their own uptrend and keep going up, options traders have a tremendous opportunity to use simulated stock positions to make very real returns!

    If you enjoyed this article, check out Dawn Pennington’s “Put Real Profits in Your Account Synthetically” and “Synthetic Call Options Similar to Real Deal.”

    Wednesday, November 21, 2012

    5 Stocks to Survive Eurogeddon

    Europe is a scary place right now. With bond yields in some of Europe's weaker countries soaring and the threat of sovereign default at the forefront of everyone's mind, the situation looks a lot like the U.S. did in late 2008 and early 2009. The risk of a complete collapse of the economic system -- one that could bring the continent's credit markets to a standstill -- may not be all that high, but it's definitely not zero, either.

    With that in mind, smart contrarian investors should be looking at whether they can pick up some bargain stocks on the cheap from fearful investors dumping good European stocks along with bad ones. But how can you tell which companies are most likely to weather the storm?

    A history lesson
    If the financial crisis three years ago taught investors anything, it's that companies that rely on the credit markets too much run the risk of complete meltdown when those markets seize up. Wall Street institutions Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns both owe their demises to a simple fact: At a critical moment, they needed outside financing, and no one was willing to give it to them. That proved once and for all that cash is king, while debt ties you down and can prove to be your undoing if it gets out of control at the wrong time. Other stocks, including Ford (NYSE: F  ) and Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) , came to the brink of their own respective corporate debt crises before gaining respite in the 2009 recovery.

    So to get a sense of which stocks in Europe -- including the U.K., despite its steadfast refusal to embrace the euro -- are in the best condition to survive a similar credit crunch if it happens there, looking at debt levels is essential. Obviously, a company that has a sufficient cash cushion doesn't need to worry about whether it can borrow on the open market -- and in fact, it could be able to take advantage of bad conditions to make strategic deals like buyouts at bargain prices.

    Further filtering the results to include only low- or no-debt Europe-based companies that trade conveniently on U.S. exchanges, I found the following five stocks.

    Stock

    Cash/Debt

    Revenue Outside Europe

    Aixtron (Nasdaq: AIXG  ) $426 million / $0 95%
    Icon $166 million / $0 53%
    Logitech (Nasdaq: LOGI  ) $379 million / $0 64%
    Sequans Communications (NYSE: SQNS  ) $65.5 million / $3.4 million 93%
    Vistaprint (Nasdaq: VPRT  ) $161 million / $0 52%*

    Source: S&P Capital IQ as of Dec. 12. *U.S. revenue; Vistaprint doesn't break down non-U.S. revenue between European and non-European countries.

    Now admittedly, these companies aren't home free if the worst happens in Europe. Just as the U.S. crisis led to a global slowdown, so too would the global recession that results from a Eurogeddon scenario have a big impact on the way these companies do business. Sequans in particular has been hit hard throughout the year as a small-cap company competing against much larger chip makers in the ultra-competitive 4G market.

    But these companies all have at least some cash cushion to help them get through a crisis. That's especially important for contract research organization Icon, but for all these businesses, not needing access to outside capital could be critical. Moreover, even though these companies have European headquarters, they all do the bulk of their business overseas -- something that has helped other stocks like Telefonica (NYSE: TEF  ) , with its Latin American exposure.

    Show me the money
    So as you look at Europe, you have to be extremely selective in the stocks you choose. But one of the key ingredients every prospective stock you look at should have is a solid balance sheet that can withstand the worst that the sovereign debt crisis can throw at you. These companies all have their pluses and minuses, but they won't have you pulling out your hair if a credit crunch happens.

    Often, the best defense for your portfolio is a strong offense. For the U.S. side of your stock portfolio, the Motley Fool's latest special report on dividend stocks that can secure your future is available -- but only for a limited time, so click here to claim your free report before it's gone.

    Country Financial Index: Confidence Level in Overall Financial Security Holds Steady

    Americans' level of confidence in their overall financial security held steady in June, as the Country Financial Security Indexticked down just one-tenth of a point. Results indicating a more optimistic near-term view of Americans' finances were offset by continued uncertainty about longer range issues. The survey is conducted and released every other month.

    While the overall index remained stable, the short-term component--an indicator of immediate financial concerns--increased for the second consecutive month. According to researchers, this momentum was driven by improved ratings of overall financial security and an increase in the number of Americans able to set aside money for savings and investments. Among respondents, 41% rate their financial security favorably, up two points from April and up six points from the beginning of the year. A full 46% were able to save, up one point from April and three points from February.

    Key findings include:

    ? In contrast to short-term sentiments, confidence about long-term finances has yet to show significant signs of recovery.

    ? The number of Americans confident they will have enough money for a comfortable retirement dipped one point to 56%.

    ? Confidence in the ability to have enough resources to send children to college increased one point to 62%in June, but remains significantly lower than pre-recession readings.

    ? In comparison to other generations, the 18-29 age group has grown significantly more confident about their finances in the last few months.

    ? Fully 44% were able to set aside money for savings or investments, an 11-point jump from April.

    "As we reach the middle of the year, it is clear Americans are still uneasy about their finances as the unpredictable economic situation continues," says Keith Brannan, vice president of Financial Security Planning for Country Financial. "It is encouraging, however, to see that sentiments about short-term finances are heading in the right direction. We hope people understand that making the right financial decisions now can help them in the long-term."

    Read about Country Financial's property insurance survey from the archives of InvestmenAdvisor.com.

    Top Stocks For 2012-2-9-6

    Kenneth Cole Productions, Inc. (NYSE:KCP) reported financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2011. The Company reported operating income of $1.1 million, flat versus the year-ago quarter. The Company reported net income per fully-diluted share of $0.03 in the second quarter versus of $0.05 in the year-ago period. The Company noted that during the quarter it took an impairment charge of $0.02 per fully-diluted share against the value of its auction-rate securities.

    Kenneth Cole Productions, Inc. designs, sources, and markets a range of fashion footwear, handbags, and apparel in the United States and internationally.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (OTC:CRWE), together with its digital network, currently provides electronic media services specializing in online publishing, which brings together targeted audiences and advertisers.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers internet media-driven advertising services, which covers and connects a range of marketing specialties, as well as search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

    Today, the majority of people spend their work and leisure time in front of their computers on the Internet. As social networking sites replace meeting up with friends and searching the Internet for information rather than going through books becomes the norm, advertisers are seeing a huge potential for marketing and advertising various products and services on the Internet.

    Crown Equity Holdings Inc. is pleased to announce that it has entered into a joint venture to deploy VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) technology delivering voice, video and data services to residential and commercial customers. The joint venture company is Crown Tele Services Inc. which was a wholly-owned subsidiary of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. will own fifty percent (50%) interest in the joint venture.

    Commenting on the joint venture, Kenneth Bosket, President of Crown Equity Holdings Inc., said: �We are excited to deliver VoIP communications solutions specifically designed to meet the business and residential market needs in this fast-growing global market.�

    One of the main advantages of VoIP over traditional phone service is savings on long-distance calls. By converting a caller�s voice to data and transferring it over the Internet to a VoIP phone on the other end, companies with multiple sites can avoid traditional phone lines and the long-distance charges that come with them.

    For more information, please visit: http://www.crownequityholdings.com and http://crownteleservices.com/

    American Safety Insurance Holdings, Ltd. (NYSE:ASI) reported net earnings of $4.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2011, or $0.38 per diluted share, as compared to $6.2 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, for the same period of 2010. Net earned premiums increased 25% to $59.2 million. Property losses from U.S. storms were $5.1 million ($3.3 million after tax), contributing approximately 9 points to the combined ratio. The combined ratio was 105.8% compared to 99.4%.

    American Safety Insurance, Cambrex, consulting services, CROWN EQUITY HOLDINGS, Crown Tele Services, CRWE, crwe.ob, IR services, Kenneth Bosket, Kenneth Cole, NYSE:, NYSE:ASI, NYSE:KCP, online media advertising, otcbb:crwe, Pakistan, VOIP

    American Safety Insurance Holdings, Ltd. provides specialty insurance and reinsurance solutions for small and medium sized businesses primarily in the United States and Bermuda.

    Cambrex Corporation (NYSE:CBM) reported second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2011. Reported sales increased by 17.6%, and excluding the impact of foreign currency, sales increased 6.9% compared to the second quarter of 2010. EBITDA was $13.2 million in the second quarter of 2011, an increase of 8.6% compared to $12.1 million in the second quarter of 2010. Debt, net of cash was $75.5 million at the end of the second quarter of 2011, an improvement of $7.1 million during the quarter which includes a positive $0.4 million currency impact on foreign cash balances.

    Cambrex Corporation, a life sciences company, provides products and services for the development and commercialization of new and generic therapeutics.

    G Headshot Review – What’s Inside?

    Most individuals cringe when they here MLM or Multi Level Advertising, because they much more than likely had a lousy encounter with a house based business chance that didn’t work out. The truth is most fail; upwards of 90% of those that dive into a direct promoting company don’t find the financial freedom they hoped for.

    In just about each and every incident it’s not the item or service, but the individuals themselves that are responsible for failing. It takes hard work and many dedicated hours to succeed at any company, particularly a Network Marketing business. And most do not have the drive, time or patience to be effective. Most will quit if they do not see good results come fast and simple.

    While choosing the correct company model is useful in ones good results, you must be passionate about the product or services and use it successfully yourself before you are able to ever expect to share the service to other people.

    Enter Send Out Cards, I began using the online greeting card services as a company tool to help construct my promotional products company. While my 20 year business had been and is still extremely effective I truly by no means had a consistent system in place to follow up, thank and keep in touch with my clients and prospects.

    I became Send Out Cards distributor with the intention of by no means sharing this company chance with anybody. I simply wanted to use the program to grow my current company. But as time went on and I truly began to see the possible of this MLM, I opened my eyes and have started helping other businesses and people generate a residual income by helping them become card senders and teaching them how to assist others become card senders.

    When your head and heart are behind a product or service you’re no longer selling you’re sharing something you are passionate about and your success will probably be inevitable the day you realize this.

    I strongly recommend to get the G Headshot. However you have to read the whole G Headshot Review here.

    Tuesday, November 20, 2012

    2 Positive Signs for SINA

    SINA (Nasdaq: SINA  ) carries $16.1 million of goodwill and other intangibles on its balance sheet. Sometimes goodwill, especially when it's excessive, can foreshadow problems down the road. Could this be the case with SINA?

    Before we answer that, let's look at what could go wrong.

    AOL blows up
    In early 2002, AOL Time Warner was trading for $66.27 per share.

    It had $209 billion of assets on its balance sheet, and $128 billion of that was in the form of goodwill and other intangible assets. Goodwill is simply the difference between the price paid for a company during an acquisition and the net assets of the acquired company. The $128 billion of goodwill in this case was created when AOL and Time Warner merged in 2000.

    The problem with inflating your net assets with goodwill is that it can -- being intangible after all -- go away if the acquisition or merger doesn't create the amount of value that was expected. That's what happened in AOL Time Warner's case. It had to write off most of the goodwill over the next few months, and one year later that line item had shrunk to $37 billion. Investors punished the stock along the way, sending it down to $27.04 -- or nearly a 60% loss.

    In his fine book It's Earnings That Count, Hewitt Heiserman explains the AOL situation and how two simple metrics can help minimize your risk of owning a company that may blow up like this. Let's see how SINA holds up using his two metrics.

    Intangible assets ratio
    This ratio shows us the percentage of total assets made up by goodwill and other intangibles. Heiserman says he views anything over 20% as worrisome, "because management might be overpaying for the acquisition or acquisitions that gave rise to the goodwill."

    SINA has an intangible assets ratio of 1%.

    This is well below Heiserman's threshold, and a sign that any growth you see with the company is probably organic. But we're not through; let's also take a look at tangible book value.

    Tangible book value
    Tangible book value is simply what remains after subtracting goodwill and other intangibles from shareholders' equity (also known as book value). If this is not a positive value, Heiserman advises you to avoid the company because it may "lack the balance sheet muscle to protect [itself] in a recession or from better-financed competitors."

    SINA's tangible book value is $1 billion, so no yellow flags here.

    Foolish bottom line
    SINA appears to be in good shape in terms of the intangible assets ratio and tangible book value. You can never base an entire investment thesis on one or two metrics, but there are no yellow flags here. If any companies you're researching do fail one of these checks, make sure you understand the business model and management's objectives. I'll help you keep a close eye on these ratios over the next few quarters by updating them soon after each earnings report.

    Keep up with SINA, including news and analysis as it's published, by adding the company to your free, personalized watchlist.

    SM: Is the 4 Percent Rule Viable?

    So ... you've put the finishing touches on your retirement plan, and you're set to withdraw 4% from savings each year, because that's what financial planners (and columnists) have long advised.

    Can you guess what's coming?

    Last year, a research paper in the Journal of Financial Planning predicted that a safe nest-egg withdrawal rate for retirements begun in 2010 is 1.8%. In other words, a new retiree with $500,000 should pull no more than $9,000 from savings annually to help ensure that his money lasts as long as he does. Stunned? Wait. There's more.

    More on Retirement
    • Secrets of the 401(k) Millionaires
    • Retire Here, Not There: South Carolina
    • 5 Things to Do If You Want to Retire in 2012

    Within weeks of that report's appearance, a study in Retirement Management Journal made the case that a safe withdrawal rate for some individuals could be as much as 7%. Which means the same person with $500,000 could start retirement by pulling about $35,000 from savings annually.

    See? Isn't retirement-planning fun? In fact, both papers make some intriguing points. (We'll get to them in a moment.) But here's the real lesson: Retirement planning -- or rather, good retirement planning -- is never really finished. Ideally, your particular plan is open to new ideas and research and, as such, is able to evolve.

    Take the so-called 4 percent rule. Based on pioneering work in the early 1990s by William Bengen, a certified financial planner in El Cajon, Calif., the rule states that retirees can pull about 4% annually from their nest egg, with a high probability that their savings will last 30 years. (Bengen himself eventually set the figure at 4.5%.) The findings helped establish budgets and spending patterns for countless individuals. Recently, though, researchers have been investigating how additional variables -- investment fees, the timing of retirement, retiree spending patterns -- could affect Bengen's benchmark. Here's what some of that work might mean for your retirement.

    On your mark

    "Market valuations" -- the relative health of markets at the moment you enter retirement -- are now an important part of calculating withdrawal rates. The thinking: Markets move in cycles (bull markets follow bear markets, and so on), and we can measure (to some extent) whether we're on the cusp of the former or the latter. Why is that important? If you happen to retire at the start of a bear market and withdraw too much too soon, your nest egg might expire before you do.

    In his study in the Journal of Financial Planning, economist Wade Pfau notes that when price/earnings ratios (to cite one marker) are at or above historical averages, as they are today, investors in coming years are more likely to see anemic returns. As such, a new retiree would want to keep his initial withdrawal rate on the low side -- perhaps as low as (gulp) 1.8% -- to weather coming storms.

    Care to gamble?

    Most research into withdrawal rates assumes retirees, in effect, want a guarantee that their savings will last 30 years or more. But what if you're willing to gamble? Would you risk having (virtually) no savings for a brief period late in life in order to draw more early in retirement? Having a pension, for instance, might make that a risk worth taking.

    That's the question Duncan Williams and Michael Finke, a doctoral student and professor, respectively, at Texas Tech University, tackle in Retirement Management Journal. One possible answer: Some risk-tolerant retirees could start with a withdrawal rate of 7%.

    And what if you're risk averse?

    Even a 95 percent chance of success, when it comes to a nest egg's long-term survival, "may still represent a significant risk," says Ed Easterling, founder and president of Crestmont Research, a Corvallis, Ore.-based investment-research firm. His example: A surgeon tells you she has a sterling 95% success rate with the operation she's about to perform -- and mentions that she operates 20 times a week. That means, of course, that one surgery per week, on average, will go bad. Easterling's point: A 95% success rate might sound good to others -- but is it good for you?

    Running the numbers

    Financial coach Todd R. Tresidder, founder of FinancialMentor.com, offers a four-step method for figuring withdrawal rates that reflects much of the recent research: Estimate your life span, assess market valuations at the time you retire, account for variables like inflation and investment fees, and revisit your plan regularly. Tresidder is confident that investors can run the numbers themselves -- but I'm less so. Get your adviser to help with this.

    Holding its value

    And what of Bill Bengen, father of the 4% rule? One of the most affable people in the financial-planning industry, Bengen has never claimed that his findings are right for every retiree. Indeed, he thinks some of the latest research about market valuations is "terrific."

    He told me recently that he started with a specific set of assumptions: a retirement lasting 30 years, with savings in a tax-deferred account and nothing left for heirs. Change just one of those parameters, he says, and your "safe" withdrawal rate may differ.

    Still, Bengen notes, 4% remains a prudent jumping-off point for calculating withdrawal rates from nest eggs. Just keep your plan open to some adjustments.

    Earnings Preview: The Walt Disney Co.

    The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is expected to report Q1 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, February 9 with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET.

    Guidance

    Analysts are looking for a profit of 39c on revenue of $9.63B. The consensus range is 34c-51c for EPS, and revenue of $9.26B-$10.18B, according to First Call. Disney has wanted to sell its Miramax name and film library for months, reportedly valued at about $700M, and recently closed Miramax's offices and let go most of its remaining personnel. Disney is also said to be eyeing a stake in Bus Online, China's largest in-bus digital media and advertising company. During the quarter, Sean Bailey was named president of Walt Disney Studios Motion Picture Production following the departure of Oren Aviv. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hong Kong Disneyland narrowed its losses due to cost cutting and a slight increase in attendance.

    Analysts and investors will listen for comments on ad revenue, as well as what's going on with Miramax. In addition, Disney may discuss the possibility of entering into a deal to provide movies and TV shows to Apple's (AAPL) iPad, which may eventually help earnings at its movie studio.

    9 Dividend Stocks on the Radar

    A few weeks ago, I wrote about 9 dividend stocks that should do well in 2011. I went through each sector and picked 1 stock per sector. Why? Because we are all looking for asset diversification and each sector has good and bad moods. I don’t know if I’ll have time to analyze dividend stocks in the upcoming weeks but I thought of sharing all the numbers according to my dividend stock analysis template.

    So here are the 9 Dividend Stocks on my Radar:

    Ticker NUE T DRI JNJ
    Name Nucor Corp AT&T Inc Darden Restaurants Inc Johnson & Johnson
    Dividend Metrics
    Current Dividend Yield 3,29 5,75 2,30 3,41
    5 year Dividend Growth 9,29 5,39 38,20 10,35
    1 year Dividend Growth 2,30 2,42 27,37 10,20
    Company Metrics
    Sales Growth (1 year) 41,59 1,03 -1,45 -0,50
    Sales Growth (5 year) 6,25 23,48 5,68 4,76
    Earnings growth #N/A N/A -9,75 10,51 0,96
    P/E ratio 109,00 13,08 14,82 12,91
    Margins growth -23,70 0,48 0,45 -0,78
    Payout ratio 339,90 52,36 34,40 43,54
    Return on Equity 1,85 18,56 23,11 24,88
    Debt to Capital Ratio 0,31 0,38 0,28 0,10
    Stock Metrics
    Price 47,96 28,38 47,13 61,44

    Ticker HUSKF.PK NA.TO MMM INTC WEC
    Name Husky Energy Inc National Bank of Canada

    3M

    Co.

    Intel Corp Wisconsin Energy Corp
    Dividend Metrics
    Current Dividend Yield 4,52 3,61 2,43 3,02 2,72
    5 year Dividend Growth 1,76 7,20 4,32 13,97 14,08
    1 year Dividend Growth -25,00 1,61 3,41 13,19 21,77
    Company Metrics
    Sales Growth (1 year) 20,59 -1,90 15,31 24,19 1,81
    Sales Growth (5 year) 11,44 0,22 5,08 3,84 -0,62
    Earnings growth 6,43 46,93 14,14 177,54 7,80
    P/E ratio 21,88 11,57 16,04 10,63 15,38
    Margins growth -17,43 #N/A N/A -1,09 1,93 1,40
    Payout ratio 86,96 41,40 36,72 30,56 41,16
    Return on Equity 7,84 16,88 28,74 25,16 12,39
    Debt to Capital Ratio 0,18 3,01 0,09 0,02 0,74
    Stock Metrics
    Price 29,97 74,86 92,23 21,47 59,20

    As you can see, I already have a position in 3 of them (JNJ, NA and HSE). I believe that JNJ will come back after their quality control problems, National Bank is one of the most active Canadian banks right now (the first one to raise its dividend and reporting great profits) and Husky Energy is based on an energy play (I told you I prefer companies over commodities). As a result, I am currently left with no liquidity in my account (or barely!). However, I keep an eye on these companies since I may sell my position in PDN or RIM this year.

    PDN had a few problems with mines lately so I am starting to think that it will be stuck in the $4 range for a while longer. With regards to RIM, I am just waiting to see the stock jump to a higher level (around $90) since several financial analysts see the stock at that price. This was the plan when I caught the falling knife back in 2010.

    So if I end up with a few bucks left by the end of the year, I might turn around and look on my radar list. I must say that Intel (INTC) will probably be my next full analysis as I find the numbers pretty interesting and I love technology .

    What are your favorite picks among these stocks? Any other stocks you feel would be interesting to follow with me?

    Disclaimer: I hold positions in JNJ, NA and HSE.