Geron Corp: Why I Decided To Take A Flyer On This $2 Biotech Stock

Biotech stocks are probably the hardest to get a true handle on unless you have a P.H.D., a good research staff and more than a little luck. I think the best way to invest in the space is to select companies that seem to have significant promise, have the funding to last a few years and hope for the best. As long as you can make yourself comfortable with the notion that for every 5 stocks you invest in, one or two will go bankrupt, one will muddle along, one will be a slight success and the last one will be a ten bagger. One stock I am comfortable throwing into the mix at these price levels is Geron Corporation (GERN).

According to Yahoo Finance, "Geron Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, develops biopharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancer and chronic degenerative diseases, including spinal cord injury, heart failure, and diabetes."

7 Reasons to take a flyer on Geron at $2 a share:

• Its pipeline of oncology drugs is promising. It has one drug, imetelstat, that is in several clinical trials. A breast cancer treatment just completed enrollment into phase II trials.
• It has approximately $140mm in net cash on its balance sheet. It is bleeding about $40mm to $45mm a year in operating cash flow so it has over three years of funding at current run rates.
• Insiders have been net insider buyers of the stock over the last six months.
• The median price target on Geron for the 4 analysts that cover the company is $6, triple its current price.
• Although sales are small, revenues are projected to grow 80% in FY2012.
• The stock looks like it has bottomed and just crossed over its 100 moving day average.

click to enlarge

• The CEO is presenting at 2012 Global Health Care Conference in New York City at the end of the month which should generate positive buzz for the stock.

Disclosure: I am long GERN.

Earnings Preview: The Walt Disney Co.

The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) is expected to report Q1 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, February 9 with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET.

Guidance

Analysts are looking for a profit of 39c on revenue of $9.63B. The consensus range is 34c-51c for EPS, and revenue of $9.26B-$10.18B, according to First Call. Disney has wanted to sell its Miramax name and film library for months, reportedly valued at about $700M, and recently closed Miramax's offices and let go most of its remaining personnel. Disney is also said to be eyeing a stake in Bus Online, China's largest in-bus digital media and advertising company. During the quarter, Sean Bailey was named president of Walt Disney Studios Motion Picture Production following the departure of Oren Aviv. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hong Kong Disneyland narrowed its losses due to cost cutting and a slight increase in attendance.

Analysts and investors will listen for comments on ad revenue, as well as what's going on with Miramax. In addition, Disney may discuss the possibility of entering into a deal to provide movies and TV shows to Apple's (AAPL) iPad, which may eventually help earnings at its movie studio.

How Fast Is the Cash at JAKKS Pacific?

It takes money to make money. Most investors know that, but with business media so focused on the "how much," very few investors bother to ask, "How fast?"

When judging a company's prospects, how quickly it turns cash outflows into cash inflows can be just as important as how much profit it's booking in the accounting fantasy world we call "earnings." This is one of the first metrics I check when I'm hunting for the market's best stocks. Today, we'll see how it applies to JAKKS Pacific (Nasdaq: JAKK  ) .

Let's break this down
In this series, we measure how swiftly a company turns cash into goods or services and back into cash. We'll use a quick, relatively foolproof tool known as the cash conversion cycle, or CCC for short.

Why does the CCC matter? The less time it takes a firm to convert outgoing cash into incoming cash, the more powerful and flexible its profit engine is. The less money tied up in inventory and accounts receivable, the more available to grow the company, pay investors, or both.

To calculate the cash conversion cycle, add days inventory outstanding to days sales outstanding, then subtract days payable outstanding. Like golf, the lower your score here, the better. The CCC figure for JAKKS Pacific for the trailing 12 months is 97.4.

For younger, fast-growth companies, the CCC can give you valuable insight into the sustainability of that growth. A company that's taking longer to make cash may need to tap financing to keep its momentum. For older, mature companies, the CCC can tell you how well the company is managed. Firms that begin to lose control of the CCC may be losing their clout with their suppliers (who might be demanding stricter payment terms) and customers (who might be demanding more generous terms). This can sometimes be an important signal of future distress -- one most investors are likely to miss.

In this series, I'm most interested in comparing a company's CCC to its prior performance. Here's where I believe all investors need to become trend-watchers. Sure, there may be legitimate reasons for an increase in the CCC, but all things being equal, I want to see this number stay steady or move downward over time.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Because of the seasonality in some businesses, the CCC for the TTM period may not be strictly comparable to the fiscal-year periods shown in the chart. Even the steadiest-looking businesses on an annual basis will experience some quarterly fluctuations in the CCC. To get an understanding of the usual ebb and flow at JAKKS Pacific, consult the quarterly-period chart below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

On a 12-month basis, the trend at JAKKS Pacific looks less than great. At 97.4 days, it is 24.3 days worse than the five-year average of 73.1 days. The biggest contributor to that degradation was DSO, which worsened 67.5 days when compared to the five-year average.

Considering the numbers on a quarterly basis, the CCC trend at JAKKS Pacific looks good. At 43.1 days, it is 34.1 days better than the average of the past eight quarters. With quarterly CCC doing better than average and the latest 12-month CCC coming in worse, JAKKS Pacific gets a mixed review in this cash-conversion checkup.

Though the CCC can take a little work to calculate, it's definitely worth watching every quarter. You'll be better informed about potential problems, and you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

• Add JAKKS Pacific to My Watchlist.

Tech and Financials Role Reversal

The fourth quarter trend of Tech outperforming Financials has been completely flipped on its head in the first week of 2010.

The chart below (click to enlarge) highlights the relative strength of the Financial and Technology sectors versus the S&P 500. For each series, the rising line indicates the sector is outperforming the S&P 500 and vice versa. For the entire fourth quarter, Technology (red line) led the market while Financials (blue line) lagged, but with the change of the calendar came a change of pace. Now, Financials are leading the pack as stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS) escape the 'Whitney Effect', while names like Google (GOOG) can't seem to get out of their own way.

The Endgame In Europe

Tyler Cowen commenting on the failed German bond auction offered perhaps the most succinct analysis of the dilemma facing Europe:

Maybe these markets simply will shut down soon. There is so much talk about what the Germans should do, but I don’t see the viable options. With Germany’s own credit status now in doubt, eighty percent debt to gdp ratio, massive welfare state, and unfavorable demographics, are they supposed to endorse — going to endorse — ten or fifteen percent price inflation for a few years’ time, all with no guarantee of reforms in the economically weaker countries? And is that inflation then followed by a subsequent deflation? Or does it continue forever? And would Germany have to move to a regime of wage flexibility for the professions too? How politically feasible is that? I don’t see how the Germans benefit from going down this road, even if you think, as I do, that the alternatives are quite dire.

And amid all the talk among politicians, technocrats and the media about what should or not should be done, he properly notes that there are questions of democracy which should be considered.

The motto “no monetary union without a fiscal union” isn’t wrong, but more to the point is “no fiscal union without a common electorate.”

Even assuming, however, that Europe could expeditiously merge in such a fashion as to allow for continent wide referendums on solutions, it is not all that clear to me that would be in the best interests of the German citizens or for that matter those of their northern neighbors. The collective voting power of the failing countries might well be able to dictate the terms of any new regime. Certainly the antipathy to fiscal reforms so far demonstrated doesn’t argue for any sort of outcome which would not negatively impact the more responsible countries.

Now along comes Holman Jenkins in the WSJ who alludes to a potential way out of the dilemma:

A month ago, as far as the eye could see, Germany was to be the last good credit in Europe, able to bail out all the others. Well, that illusion has liquidated itself in a hurry. Investors sent a message at Berlin’s Wednesday bond sale, sitting on their hands for $3 billion being offered. The message: Markets are getting ready to punish Germany for the sin of its neighbors’ overborrowing, unless Germany allows the sin of money-printing to paper over those sins in the short term.

Then what? Despite the overheated reaction, a six-page German memo that surfaced last week is a most promising document. It describes, if you look between the lines, a Europe that becomes safe for sovereign default. No bank runs. No precipitous withdrawals from the euro. Instead a generous, pro-reform receivership for bankrupt governments at the hands of fellow European governments.

The deadbeats would get debt relief at the expense of Europe’s banks, which hold much of their debt. The deadbeat governments would get new funding from somebody (likely the European Central Bank), in return for welfare and labor-market reforms that would be democratically practical because they would be coupled with debt relief.

Herein resides the best possible solution to the European impasse: an outcome that restores growth, avoids self-defeating austerity, and allows the best possible recovery for bondholders, who would collect more pennies on the dollar than they would if debtor countries were pushed into depression in a futile effort to pay every centime. The only downside would be a modest appearance of subservience to Berlin.

Now Jenkins does readily admit that it takes a certain bit of optimism to believe that this would truly work as smoothly as outlined, but it does seem to address some of the issues that Cowen raised.

Extinguishing the existing debt and funding ongoing needs by the ECB would certainly be much less inflationary than flooding the market with Euros in order to maintain the status quo. While any imposed solution is going to be an affront to the concept of democracy, the tone of this one would at least probably be grudgingly accepted by most of the parties’ electorates. The fiscally conservative countries could at least hope that the ECB printing presses don’t send inflation running and the aid recipients’ populace would hopefully see that their diminished living standards are preferable to the depression they were staring down.

What becomes of the banks that are forced to eat the losses is another matter. Germany, France and a few other countries are going to have to cope with massive recapitalisation to the detriment of their economies. It remains to be seen if bank creditors will finally pay a price, but at least the plan would provide time for an orderly reorganization as opposed to the hysteria that would most likely result from a collapse of the EU.

I suspect that something along the lines of what Jenkins has outlined will come to pass. In some respects this all seems creepily like the period leading up to the passage of TARP. All sorts of plans floating about, predictions of the end of at least banking as we knew it in the US, hard positions and politicians taking everything up to the brink. And then we muddled through.

Expect the EU to do so as well. The careers of too many politicians and technocrats depend on it and, while I don’t think it would be Armageddon the alternative would in Cowen’s words be “dire.”

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Passes This Key Test

There's no foolproof way to know the future for Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE: MSO  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

A cloudy crystal ball
In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

Why might an upstanding firm like Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

Is Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

Watching the trends
When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia's latest average DSO stands at 72.8 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 63.2 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

I don't think so. AR and DSO look healthy. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia's year-over-year revenue shrank 5.4%, and its AR dropped 28.6%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO decreased 23.7% from the prior-year quarter. It was down 6.1% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

What now?
I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments section below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

• Add Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia to My Watchlist.

Property Listings Go Hollywood

DeeAnna Staats may have made her millions in the luxury home furnishings and interior design industry, but she may as well have been in show business. That’s what prospective homebuyers will think, anyway, when they receive her Hollywood-budget video that acts as a house listing and will be delivered preinstalled on brand-new iPads. The $35 million Malibu home has much to offer and Staats felt the best way to present its features was through a short film – but not just any short film. The piece was directed by Graham Henman and scored by Hans Zimmer Studios, the genius behind The Lion King, Gladiator and True Romance. For more on this continue reading the following article from TheStreet.

You might think the video above is the trailer for Hollywood's next big summer blockbuster. But it's actually the listing for one woman's $35 million Malibu house.

DeeAnna Staats hired Hollywood movie director Graham Henman to shoot the three-minute film, called The Spider and the Fly, with Hans Zimmer Studios (which produced the musical score of The Lion King, Gladiator and True Romance) as the masterminds behind the soundtrack. The movie, which will take the place of a regular listing, will be sent out by Staats to prospective buyers across the United States and the globe -- on gift-wrapped iPads.

"I wanted to present [the home] to buyers in a creative way that would give them a real sense of the place," explained Staats, owner of luxury-home-furnishing and interior-design company Staats & Co. "[It's] a unique and very emotional house."

Though Staats won't disclose exactly how much it cost to produce the short film, she did concede that it was a "full Hollywood production" -- one that's already been downloaded and sent out on 100 brand-new iPads.

Christened the "Carbon Mesa," the 9,500-square-foot Malibu mansion sits high above California's "Billionaire's Beach." It features 4,500 square feet of outdoor patio space, six enormous bedrooms, nine bathrooms, a movie theater and a wine cellar that can store more than 800 bottles. That's grandeur that, as far as we know, is surpassed only by Gianni Versace's Miami palaceand the newly-listed, $58 million "La Palais" in nearby Beverly Hills.

But if you think that you have to be a multimillionaire to create a snazzy short film to reel in prospective buyers, you're wrong. Though not all of us have access to Hollywood directors, an increasing number of owners and Realtors are getting behind the camera themselves to dabble in some video marketing -- and it's working.

Eric Lavey, an agent with Keller Williams Realty in Beverly Hills, produced a short movie about a Hollywood Hills listing, marketing it as a sizzling bachelor's home. The sexy two-minute flick snagged a buyer for the $969,000 property in less than 30 days.

And who could forget the risque, black-and-white short film produced by Neo Property in Australia? The, er, cheeky video features models strolling through the spectacular beachfront Queensland home in the buff. The home, valued at $2.185 million, sold after just 3,800 hits on the Internet. (Wonder how many of those were repeat views?).

HHGregg adds to worries over electronics retailers

MARKETWATCH FRONT PAGE

In another bad sign for the consumer-electronics retailers, HHGregg shares lose almost two-fifths of their value after the Indianapolis-based company forecasts a wider first-quarter loss on an unexpected drop in sales. See full story.

Google tablet costs $152 to build, analysis shows

Google�s tablet costs $152 to build, slightly higher than the cost for Amazon.com�s Kindle Fire, according to a tear-down analysis. See full story.

Netflix caught between speaking up and shutting up

Video-streaming leader sets viewing records, but is still trying to recover from several missteps and stock-price declines. See full story.

Municipal bonds discount San Bernardino bankruptcy

Municipal bond investors shrug off the latest California city to declare bankruptcy � San Bernardino � as the broader market continues to perform relatively well. �We�re going to have bankruptcies here and there,� says one analyst. See full story.

Goldcorp stock drops 10% on mine setbacks

Goldcorp Inc.�s U.S. shares Wednesday are on track to post their worst one-day loss since the peak of the financial crisis as analysts slashed outlooks after the Canadian gold miner�s warning on weaker output. See full story.

MARKETWATCH COMMENTARY

One thing that�s far more worrisome than the to-be-expected light summer trading volume is the recently bearish behavior of corporate insiders, writes Mark Hulbert. See full story.

MARKETWATCH PERSONAL FINANCE

It�s a situation that seems to defy supply-and-demand logic: If there�s more demand in the housing market, wouldn�t the cost of borrowing funds to buy a home be significantly on the rise? See full story.

Crude Awakening

Forget Hubbert�s Peak, think Drake�s ingenuity.

Commodity prices are collapsing, as I predicted in my Aug. 8 column. Copper is down 28% from its February top. Cotton has dropped 58% from its early March peak. Crude oil is down from its late April peak of $114 per barrel to $96, but it is still up 28% from its $76 October low.

Why? Beats me. The Arab Spring disruptions have fizzled, and Libyan oil production�zero in August�will likely reach 700,000 barrels a day at year�s end. In October OPEC cut its 2011 global demand forecast for the fourth consecutive month, this time by 180,000 barrels to 87.8 million per day.

Despite these dynamics the oil market is still worried about shortages, as first predicted by geoscientist M. King Hubbert in 1956. He examined the rise and fall of individual oilfield production and projected those patterns for the entire U.S. He then predicted a peak in output in 1970. Few believed him, but his forecast proved correct, and then shortages caused oil prices to surge in the 1970s.

Followers extrapolated �Hubbert�s Peak� globally and predicted a top in worldwide output in 2010�12. That ­hasn�t panned out, so they pushed it to 2015�20. They had to. Continual rises in output belied the static Malthusian shortage mentality of Hubbert�s Peak.

History shows that human ingenuity and free-market prices always ­overcome prospective shortages. In the mid-1800s a shortage of whales ­threatened to blow out all the whale-oil-­fueled lights. Edwin L. Drake�s first-ever oil well in Titusville, Pa. in 1859 gave the whales a reprieve as kerosene replaced whale oil.

Initial engineering estimates of proven oilfield reserves tend to be ­conservative. But by accounting for further development, continual technology advances such as horizontal drilling and supportive prices, the U.S. Geological Survey calculates that 86% of total U.S. proven reserves are additions to original numbers.

New finds are adding still more. Norway�s Statoil, for example, ­recently discovered a potential 1.5-billion-barrel oilfield, among the five largest off Norway. With new technology permitting oil drilling under 6,000 feet of water, Petrobras discovered a huge field off the coast of Brazil under layers of salt.

The Hubbert�s Peak devotees also seem blind to the vast array of substitutes for petroleum. Hydraulic fracturing�fracking�is producing tremendous quantities of shale gas, and natural gas has plummeted from $13 per million Btu in 2008 to $3.42. U.S. gas reserves are estimated to last 100 years at current consumption rates.

Shale gas is also prevalent in China, Argentina and the U.K. With abundant natural gas, Canada is planning to ship LNG to Asia, and the U.S. is likely to retool import terminals to export LNG.  South Africa�s Sasol is planning a $10 billion facility in Louisiana to convert natural gas into diesel fuel, which competes with petroleum products.

Coal has a dirty image due to sulfur and carbon dioxide emissions, but new technology is solving these problems. Coal can also be turned into gasoline and diesel fuel.

Nuclear energy is on hold in many parts of the world after the tsunami in Japan but will probably be revived, as it was after the Three Mile Island incident in 1979 and the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. Petroleum from Canadian oil sands is relatively expensive but supported by today�s prices, and ­production is forecast to double to 3 million barrels a day by 2030.

Renewable energy sources such as ethanol, wind, solar and geothermal require huge government subsidies and are losing favor in the federal budget-cutting era.

On the demand side, regulations like auto-mileage minimums curtail energy consumption. Higher prices encourage efficiency. With economies here and abroad becoming more ser­vice- and less goods-oriented, global oil consumption per real GDP fell 41% from 1980 to 2010.

Shale gas excepted, cheap North American energy is fully exploited. However, most Americans favor energy efficiency and production on this continent against imports. In fact, imported energy fell to 49% of the total for sources outside North America in 2010, down from 60% in 2005. The Obama Administration is torn between the energy industry and labor unions, who want more energy ­development, and environmentalists, who want none.

Given the sagging global economy, expect crude oil prices to fall�barring outside shocks�with Hubbert�s Peak nowhere in sight.

Wall Street Needs to Get Behind These Stocks

Wall Street doesn't seem to think the companies listed below worth much enthusiasm. So why do our Motley Fool CAPS members disagree? They've bestowed on these companies the highest four- and five-star ratings, signaling their faith that the associated businesses will outperform the market while Wall Street offers lackluster support at best.

So who�has it right? The professional class of analysts sitting in their paneled offices smoking stogies, or a motley crew of community investors pooling their best thoughts for others to share? We think we know who'll come out ahead. How about you?

Stock	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	No. of Analysts	Wall Street Bullish Sentiment	CAPS Bullish Sentiment
Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC  )	****	11	63%	87%
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK  )	****	16	69%	95%

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.

Now, as much as we love our CAPS community, don't buy these companies just because they've garnered top ratings. And don't sell 'em just because Wall Street says to, either. Investing requires close diligence on your part, so use these ratings as a launching pad for your own research.

The "It" girl
It's understandable why analysts are reticent about backing IT services specialist Computer Sciences. It's still under investigation by the SEC over accounting irregularities in some of its international divisions; it is still weighed down by its contract dispute with the health services regulator in the U.K., something that could cause it to write down the $1.5 billion full value of the contract; and its CFO just resigned in the wake of the company's appointment of a new CEO.

It's actually that last point that probably portends the most hope for the government IT contractor. A fresh start with fresh eyes can sometimes be what a company needs to get past an ugly chapter in its history. Rival Ebix (Nasdaq: EBIX  ) has bounced back after questions were raised over its accounting propriety and its�growth-by-acquisition strategy. Shares of the cloud-based IT coordinator have climbed back up to nearly the same level they were at a year ago despite having been cut in half by this past October.

Computer Sciences reported earnings that beat analyst expectations, once adjustments were made to exclude the NHS contract. It also reported that new contract business stood at $13 billion year to date, up 26% from the year-ago period, so with a turnaround specialist at the helm now, there seems every reason to believe it can continue to improve, even if the big rally in shares the other day was a bit premature.

While the broader CAPS community is supportive of CSC, All-Star CAPS members are even more so, with 90% of those top investors weighing in thinking it will go on to outperform the broad indexes. Add the IT specialist to�your Watchlist�then head over to the�Computer Sciences CAPS page�and tell us if you think the turnaround around specialist can turn around CSC.

At the precipice
Pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline suffered something of the opposite problem the other day when it reported earnings. While it was profitable, it missed analyst projections and saw sales of its Avandia and Valtrex slip. It also said it was buying back less stock than it did a year ago.

Unlike some rival drug makers like Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN  ) , who face a particularly steep patent cliff, wherein a significant portion of their revenue will face generic competition in the near future, Glaxo hopes to achieve something more akin to a "patent slope." That's because it has a deep pipeline of drugs in development that ought to help make up for the loss of protection for Seretide and Avandia.

CAPS member BinyaminK recently remarked that Glaxo is a slow and steady performer that, like the tortoise in its race against the hare, should ultimately come out ahead.

This is a "Giant Tortoise Stock." Like a giant tortoise, It may be big and slow, but it has a hard shell (economic moat), can swim far (enter into new and emerging markets and industries), and live long.

Add GlaxoSmithKline to the Fool's free portfolio tracker and see if it can coast over the edge with the rest of the pharmaceutical industry.

What's wrong with that?
Banking stocks are indeed scary places to invest these days, but find out the one financial institution The Motley Fool believes even Warren Buffett would consider taking a stake in if he could. Get your copy of the special free report "The Stocks Only the Smartest Investors Are Buying" before this limited-time offer expires.

Best Stocks To Invest In 2011-12-12-3

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (NYSE Amex:OESX), a leading power technology enterprise that designs, manufactures and deploys energy management solutions, announced that it has reached an agreement with De Lage Landen for the purpose of financing Orion�s Throughput Agreement (OTA) projects.

The program agreement is aimed at making energy efficiency finance more easily available and affordable for companies who desire to benefit from the tremendous energy cost savings delivered through Orion�s energy management products. The agreement differs from recent debt financings that Orion has completed, providing for the transfer of asset ownership directly to De Lage Landen.

Scott Jensen, Chief Financial Officer of Orion also said, �Even as we worked through the program development process, the De Lage Landen team has been outstanding to work with. We�ve already worked together to execute several customer deals with a value of approximately $700,000. This relationship allows us to focus on our core competency of developing and integrating energy efficient products on behalf of our customers and shifts the financing responsibilities to an industry leader in that field.�

�We�re excited to partner with Orion,� says Mark McGovern, General Manager, Clean Technology Group, De Lage Landen. �Their go-to-market strategy and comprehensive offerings in lighting, solar, wind and other energy-efficient solutions make them an excellent fit for De Lage Landen. We�ve enjoyed working with them to develop and roll out this new program to support and grow their sales, and we look forward to expanding this relationship in the future.�

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. is a leading power technology enterprise that designs, manufactures and deploys energy management systems � consisting primarily of high-performance, energy-efficient lighting platforms, intelligent wireless control systems and direct renewable solar technology for commercial and industrial customers � without compromising their quantity or quality of light.

For more information, visit www.oesx.com.

Internet Voice, also known as Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), is a technology that allows you to make telephone calls using a broadband Internet connection instead of a regular (or analog) phone line. Some services using VoIP may only allow you to call other people using the same service, but others may allow you to call anyone who has a telephone number - including local, long distance, mobile, and international numbers. Also, while some services only work over your computer or a special VoIP phone, other services allow you to use a traditional phone through an adaptor.

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (CRWE.OB) announced that its subsidiary Crown Tele Services Inc. has entered into a letter of intent with AVIX Technologies, Inc., which sets forth terms by which AVIX Technologies, Inc. will acquire an exclusive licensing agreement for Canada and a non-exclusive global licensing agreement in the hospitality, foodservice and tourism industries for telecommunications including VoIP (Voice Over Internet Protocol) telecom technology systems for residential and commercial services, calling card and cellular phone applications.

Crown Tele Services Inc. is a provider of affordable, world class (VoIP) communications solutions and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Crown Equity Holdings Inc.

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. offers advertising branding and marketing services as a worldwide online multi-media publisher with its digital network of websites and focuses on the distribution of information for the purpose of bringing together a targeted audience and the advertisers that want to reach them. Its advertising services cover and connect a range of marketing specialties, as well as provide search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

For more information about Crown Tele Services, Inc., please visit: www.crownteleservices.com

For more information, please visit: http://www.crownequityholdings.com

Dreyfus Strategic Municipals Inc. (NYSE:LEO) reported the financial information for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2011, compared with the results for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2010.

Dreyfus Strategic Municipals, Inc. operates as a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund invests primarily in municipal obligations of various states of the United States.

Greif, Inc. (NYSE:GEF) announced plans to release fourth quarter and fiscal year 2011 results after the market closes Wednesday, Dec. 7, 2011 . The Company has scheduled a conference call for Thursday, Dec. 8 , at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) to review the results.

Greif is a world leader in industrial packaging products and services. The company produces steel, plastic, fibre, flexible, corrugated and multiwall containers, containerboard and packaging accessories, and provides blending, filling, packaging and reconditioning services for a wide range of industries.

TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) reported the expected impact of an extended outage at its jointly-owned Genesee 3 power plant located in Genesee, Alberta. On Nov. 11, 2011, the Genesee 3 facility, a 466 megawatt (MW) joint venture with Capital Power Corporation (233 MW net to TransAlta), experienced an unplanned outage that resulted in damage to turbine/generator bearings. Capital Power Corporation had initially estimated a return to service date of mid-December, however based on work done to-date, the outage has been extended to January 1, 2012.

TransAlta is a power generation and wholesale marketing company focused on creating long-term shareholder value. TransAlta maintains a low-to-moderate risk profile by operating a highly contracted portfolio of assets in Canada, the United States and Australia.

New Year’s Prediction #4: Retail, the Hottest Sector of 2012

If you’ve been following my recommendations for a year or more, you�ll know all too well that the “experts” on Wall Street were warning everyone about the troubled retail sector and proclaimed the American consumer was dead. But I chose to ignore their ramblings — and made outstanding profits on the very sector they lambasted.

Just take a look at the year-to-date returns of these retail- and consumer-based companies:

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) +25%

AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) +20%

Limited Brands (NYSE:LTD) +32%

McDonald�s (NYSE:MCD) +31%

O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) +33%

These are just a few of the retail investments I have in my blue-chip portfolio. In 2012, it would behoove you to secure these in your portfolio as well, because although these 12-month gains came in the face of extreme market pessimism, we’re now seeing the biggest surge in consumer confidence in eight years. This includes strong consumer spending (including robust holiday sales) and, as I previously discussed in my New Year’s Prediction #2, steadily improving job growth.

So, in the coming months, I’m going to continue looking for opportunities to capitalize on this powerful trend. In fact, I recommend buying stock in VF Corp. (NYSE:VFC), the apparel and footwear powerhouse behind a number of blowout brands such as The North Face, Wrangler, Reef and Nautica, to name a few. I�ve enjoyed some remarkable returns in select consumer-based companies, and I believe the best is yet to come in 2012.

Prediction #5: Where the Indexes and Our Stocks Are Headed

Goldman-Bashing at Bloomberg and Fortune

It’s Goldman-bashing time again (when isn’t it), with Michael Lewis returning to the same source of comedic gold that he’s mined in the past. His new column should be here, but isn’t; Alphaville has excerpts.

I have no problem with this kind of thing; I only wish it were a bit funnier. I’m all in favor of opinion columnists bashing Goldman (GS) every so often; I certainly do it often enough myself. On the other hand, they shouldn’t be allowed to get away with outright falsehood and extravagant stupidity. So why is Ben Stein writing for Fortune, and why are they letting him exude this kind of crap about Goldman Sachs?

Obviously, Goldman can put any disclaimer it wishes in the boilerplate of the offering documents. But as underwriters, it has a duty to deal fairly and honestly with its buyers, and to deal as a fiduciary, putting clients’ interests first if the buyer is a client of the firm. It holds itself out to the world that way, too. It holds itself as “adding value” when its works for a pension fund or any buyer by selling him securities. Read the annual report.

That is, it, Goldman, has a legal duty to not take advantage of the people to whom it acts as a fiduciary.

Does Stein think that if he uses the word “fiduciary” often enough, he’ll be able to change what it means? A broker-dealer, by its very nature, is an intermediary, a middleman. If you trade with Goldman, it’s either acting as a broker — finding someone else in the market who wants to buy what you’re selling, or sell what you’re buying — or else it’s acting as a dealer, and taking the opposite side of the trade itself. In neither case can it be a fiduciary.

A fiduciary is someone who invests someone else’s money on their behalf; Goldman Sachs Asset Management is one such institution which does indeed have a fiduciary duty to its clients. But Goldman’s traders are by definition the opposite: far from having their interests aligned with the people they’re trading with, they actually take the opposite side of the trade. Besides, when Goldman underwrites an offering of new securities, its client is the issuer, not the buyer of the paper. If Goldman had a fiduciary duty to its client in such matters, it can’t also have a fiduciary obligation to the investors in the deal.

But Stein hasn’t reached the heights of its idiocy quite yet. He continues:

Obviously, it’s different if Goldman is trading with a hedge fund or a canny wealthy trader who is not a client, who takes all kinds of risks. But when underwriting and selling to clients, such as pension funds, Goldman has a legal and moral duty…

The problem, of course, is for Goldman to be able to discern, for any given counterparty, whether Ben Stein would consider them to be “not a client” or a client. The bank is providing exactly the same service to the “canny wealthy” types as it is to “clients such as pension funds” — but Stein seems to think that every trader should have a red phone and a blue phone, with one used for “clients” and the other one used for “not a client”s. How to tell them apart? Maybe the traders should phone Stein first, every time, just to be on the safe side.

What kind of magazine prints this stuff? What kind of editor allows a columnist to get away with something like this?

Simple fact: if the banks’ proprietary trading had been consistently profitable, they would not have needed to be bailed out by the taxpayers in 2008.

Does Stein really think that the losses suffered by the banks in 2008 were the result of prop trading? That somehow the hundreds of billions of dollars in writedowns on toxic loans were so small that a consistently profitable prop-trading operation could have more than made up for them and obviated the need for a bailout?

Of course not: Stein doesn’t think. But as a result, his columns are neither interesting nor provocative: they’re just stupid. And I can’t for the life of me work out why Fortune is publishing them.

Asian Markets Fall

HONG KONG—Asian markets fell Thursday as concerns about the ability of European countries to borrow added to lingering concerns about Greek elections this weekend.

In the Markets

• Blue Chips Drop 77 Points
• Markets Pulse
• Hong Kong IPO Market Loses Its Edge

Many investors "are waiting to see the key Greek elections Sunday and any potential policy measures to be taken next week," said Kazuhiro Takahashi, general manager of investment strategy in Daiwa Securities.

Fears about the health of Spain's financial system were prominent, after Moody's Investors Service downgraded Spain by three notches-to Baa3, just one level above junk. The ratings agency said the €100 billion ($126 billion) Spanish bank bailout will worsen the government's debt position and that the European country's current reliance on external funding is unsustainable.

Concerns surrounded Italy's debt after it sold one-year treasuries at a yield of 3.97%, about double the borrowing costs from a month before. Investors were looking ahead to see the yields on another Italian auction, where it will sell longer-term debt, later in the global day.

There remained concerns about Greece, where depositors are withdrawing cash ahead of the election this weekend.

In the U.S., retail sales dropped for the second month in a row, the first consecutive monthly decline in nearly two years. The data for May fell less than expected, but April's data were revised down into negative territory.

Japan's Nikkei Average dropped by 0.2%, Australia's S&P ASX 200 lost 0.5%, while South Korea's Kospi was flat. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.5%, the China Shanghai Composite was 0.3% lower and Singapore's Straits Times Index lost 0.3%.

The euro was up slightly, at $1.2570, after gaining 0.4% against the dollar on Wednesday; while the dollar was little moved, at 79.42.

Although the Hang Seng Index was lower on Thursday, investors were already looking ahead to a visit by senior officials from Beijing in July, who are expected to offer something for the local economy.

"July 1 marks the fifteenth anniversary of Hong Kong's handover, [and] there are expectations that the central government will roll out measures to support the Hong Kong economy," said Ben Kwong, chief operating officer of KGI Asia.

There are expectations that visiting leaders could allow mainland professional investors to buy shares in Hong Kong, via a special qualified domestic institutional investor program, which is pushing up Hong Kong subsidiaries of mainland brokers: Haitong International gained 0.6% and Guotai Junan climbed 4.4%.

Also in Hong Kong, further upheaval at Esprit punished the fashion retailer's share price, down 10.2%, after the chairman resigned "due to personal reasons." The news came out just after the resignation of the chief executive, who also cited personal reasons, pushing the company's share price down 22% on Wednesday before the shares were suspended in the afternoon.

Shares in major flat screen television manufacturers are up, after a Nikkei report that the prices of flat-panel TV sets at large retailers are heading up. May's average sales prices were 15% above March's record low, taking the average back to October levels before fierce year-end competition kicked in. Sharp and Panasonic both gained 2.2%.

Write to Daniel Inman at daniel.inman@wsj.com

3 Reasons to Reconsider Emerging Market Stock ETFs

Yesterday, June 2, 2011, 14-year old Sukanya Roy rocked the first place trophy at the 2011 Scripps National Spelling Bee. For some reason, I thought of my 14-year old daughter, and wondered whether she could spell “perescii.”

Then my mind shifted to something else entirely. Specifically, I wondered how many Americans could spell the word, “ethnocentrism.“ It is essentially spelled like it sounds. What’s more, it aptly describes the investing tendencies of many Americans.

In essence, scores of U.S. investors regard the S&P 500 as the star at the center of the financial universe, while foreign stock benchmarks merely exist like planets in orbit. (I’m as guilty as the next ... no judgments here. And I lived in Southeast Asia for roughly four years.)

Don’t believe it? You may wish to inspect your 401k or brokerage account(s). Although half of the world’s stock market capitalization comes from outside the U.S., many of us only have 0%-20% of foreign stock exposure. (Note: It’s not much different when it comes to advisers. My peers typically recommend 20% or less overseas.)

In truth, we feel more comfortable when we invest in what we know. After all, most of us couldn’t spell Malaysia, let alone identify the country on a map.

That said, emerging market economies are growing 2-3x faster than the U.S. or Europe. It follows that if you want to be more successful in the months and years ahead, you’ll need to lose the ethnocentrism.

Granted, through the prism of 1/1/11-6/3/11, you may have been better off in U.S. ETFs alone. However, emerging market ETFs have been recovering from 2011 lows, whereas U.S. ETFs could be heading in the opposite direction.

Here are three reasons to consider emerging market ETFs right now:

1. Central Banks in Developing Countries Will Soon Shift From Tightening to Neutral: Many an ethnocentric individual has talked about how Japan’s recession adversely impacted U.S. GDP in the first half of 2011. That may be a convenient way of looking at a half-empty American cup.

However, emerging economies like China and India have been deliberately curbing their white hot economies for the past nine months. Japan’s recession may have helped the cause, making it possible for central banks in emerging Asia to stop the rate hikes sooner. In other words, you may not need to fret the end of QE2 in the U.S. when you’ve got the end of tight monetary policy in emerging Asia. (Consider SPDR S&P China GXC.)

2. Japan’s Need to Recover: In the near-term, the world’s third largest economy will certainly rebuild. Countries like Malaysia (EWM) and South Korea (EWY) benefit tremendously from that need, as they are top-of-the-line providers of materials and services to Japan. In fact, since the earthquake/tsunami date of 3/11/11, EWM and EWY are up 5.3% and 11.5% respectively. The S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY)? 0%.

3. Changing of the Guard in Relative Strength Percentile Rank: On a chart or in a table, one can examine the year-to-date performance spread between Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) and the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). At one point in March, the difference was as wide as 700 basis points. Today, it is down to roughly 300 basis points.

More importantly, VWO is moving in the right direction over the last three months. Across the entire ETF universe, SPY has traveled from a relative strength percentile rank of 62 to 47; conversely, VWO has journeyed from 40 to 60.

Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

• Noble nets deepwater drilling permit. Noble Energy (NBL) was awarded the government's first deepwater drilling permit since last year's Gulf spill. The permit is for a well located in 6,500 feet of water about 70 miles southeast of Venice, La. As a precautionary measure, Noble has contracted to use Helix Energy's (HLX) capping stack to stop the flow of oil in the event of a well control event. The same system was used to help stanch the flow of BP's (BP) leaking well last summer. Regulators said additional permits will be granted in 'the coming weeks and months' if companies demonstrate they can drill safely.
• YRC plummets on restructuring decision. Shares of YRC Worldwide (YRCW) fell 21.6% in yesterday's trading after it announced it had reached an agreement in principle with lenders and other stakeholders to restructure the company. YRC said the move could result in "a very substantial dilution of existing equity holders" as some of its debt becomes converted into equity. The company has until July to close the restructuring transaction. Premarket: YRCW -7.5% (7:00 ET).
• Pep Boys gives up on sale. Pep Boys (PBY) abandoned efforts to sell itself after bids came in too low, sources said, sending shares down 10% in yesterday's trading to $12.53. The company had reportedly attracted initial indications of interest at $10-$11/share, but had expected a bid priced in the low teens. Pep Boys has tried unsuccessfully in the past to sell itself, and could still decide to revive the effort at a future date.
• Blackstone buys Centro assets. Australia's Centro Properties Group confirmed it was selling its U.S. assets to Blackstone (BX) for $9.4B. Offloading its 588 U.S. properties will allow debt-laden Centro to focus on running its Australian operations as a stand-alone company. For Blackstone, the deal is a hefty bet on the recovery of U.S. retail property.
• Health Care REIT buys Genesis assets. Health Care REIT (HCN) agreed yesterday afternoon to buy the real estate assets of privately-held rehab facility and nursing home operator Genesis HealthCare for $2.4B. The assets include 147 post-acute, skilled nursing and assisted living properties in 11 states. The deal followed an announcement earlier in the day that Ventas (VTN) would buy Nationwide Health Properties (NHP) for $7.4B, with both deals part of a larger consolidation trend in the rapidly growing health care and senior housing real estate sector.
• FDIC's Bair calls for bank restructuring. Speaking at Reuters Future Face of Finance Summit, FDIC chief Sheila Bair said the country's largest banks may need to restructure and downsize unless they can prove that they would be easy to dismantle in the event of another financial crisis. Among other steps, banks would have to set up more foreign subsidiaries and realign their legal structures. Bair said investors also need to accept that they'll get lower returns from banks that hold higher capital and run safer operations.
• Barclays buys U.K. Egg assets from Citi. Barclays (BCS) is paying an undisclosed sum to buy the U.K. credit card assets of online bank Egg from Citigroup (C). Egg's U.K. assets consist of 1.15M accounts with approximately £2.3B ($3.75B) of gross receivables. The purchase is part of Barclays' plans to boost its retail banking business, and is part of Citi's plan to sell non-core businesses.
• General Mills, Nestle vie for Yoplait. General Mills (GIS) and Nestle (NSRGY.PK) are said to be among the leading bidders for a 50% stake in Yoplait, as both submitted offers valuing the No. 2 yogurt maker at around €1.6B ($2.2B). Bright Dairy & Food Co. reportedly submitted a higher offer of around €1.7B, but it's unclear if the Chinese firm will receive final regulatory approval from its authorities. The stake is being sold by French private-equity firm PAI Partners, and a final bidder may be selected in the next few weeks.
• Siemens eyes IPO for lighting division. Siemens (SI) is reportedly considering an IPO of its Osram lighting division within the next two months, a step that would bring the conglomerate one step closer to a total exit from consumer products. Osram has an enterprise value of €6.5B-7B ($9B-9.7B), and Siemens has retained Deutsche Bank (DB), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Commerzbank (CRZBY.PK) to help prepare the potential IPO. In yesterday's trading, SI +3.4%.

Earnings: Tuesday Before Open

• Ares Capital (ARCC): Q4 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $156.9M (+126.4% Y/Y) beats by $28.4M. (PR)
• Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG): Q4 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.09. Shares +5.7% premarket. (PR)

Earnings: Monday After Close

• A123 Systems (AONE): Q4 EPS of -$0.43 misses by $0.06. Revenue of $24M (-2% Y/Y) beats by $2.4M. Shares -3.4% AH. (PR)
• Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP): Q4 EPS of $0.66 beats by $0.17. Revenue of $118.5M (+69% Y/Y) in-line. Shares -0.4% AH.(PR)
• Universal Health Services (UHS): Q4 EPS of $0.58 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $1.56B (+21% Y/Y) in-line. Shares +1.7% AH. (PR)
• Youku.com (YOKU): Q4 EPS of -$0.13 misses by $0.10. Revenue of $23M (+182% Y/Y) beats by $2.3M. Shares -7.4% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

• In Asia, Japan +1.2% to 10754. Hong Kong +0.3% to 23396. China +0.5% to 2920. India +3.4% to 18447.
• In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.5%.
• Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.4%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +0.1% to $97.08. Gold +0.6% to $1418.70.

Tuesday's Economic Calendar

• Auto sales
  7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
  8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
  10:00 Hearing: Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Update (Bernanke)
  10:00 Hearing: Mortgage Finance Reform (Geithner)
  10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
  10:00 Construction Spending
• Notable earnings before Tuesday's open: ARCC, BMO, CNP, DRH, FIG
• Notable earnings after Tuesday's close: DNDN, MBI, MDR, NKTR, PAY, SINA, TIVO

The SA Currents team contributed to this post.

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Ford And The Importance Of Signaling

Today shares of Ford Motor had an impressive mid-day rally as the stock popped from $10.70 to $11.10 in just minutes after the auto manufacturer announced it will initiate a 5-cent dividend at the end of January, its first dividend payout in five years.

Booming '90s

In the late '90s, when Ford's stock still traded at $30 a share, shareholders were spoiled with a quarterly dividend of $0.50. When the recession of 2001 hit hard, Ford was forced to slash its fat dividend to just 10 cents a quarter from 2003 onwards. The stock price moved in tandem with the dividends, with the stock trading in the high-single-digits.

Troubles of 2006

Despite a recovery of the economy, fierce competition from foreign competitors combined with rapidly rising labor costs (as a result of the mighty auto unions) Ford came in serious financial difficulties in 2006. In the same year rating agencies cut its credit to junk and Ford decided to skip its dividend payments. In that year Alan Mulally was hired as new CEO of the firm. Under his command the company laid-off thousands of workers, closed factories and sold well-known brands including Land Rover, Volvo and Jaguar.

Recession of 2008

Thanks to the measures taken by Mulally Ford entered the 2008 recession in reasonable shape and was not forced to accept a government bail-out, something which Chrysler and General Motors could not avoid.

Improved operating performances leading to positive operational cash flows and years of divestment allowed the company to pay back large parts of it debt. Long term-debt was cut from $170 billion to $105 billion in a period of just four years, a remarkable achievement given the circumstances.

Turnaround

The year 2009 started off badly for Ford's shareholders, who were more worried about the state of the economy than impressed with Mulally's actions. The stock traded $1.50 at the beginning of the year. With economic signs turning green and improvements becoming more visible, the stock started a two-year lasting rally closing at $19 in the beginning of 2011. In the period 2007-2010 Ford managed to reduce its long term debt by some $60 billion to roughly $105 billion, thereby significantly strengthening its balance sheet.

Signaling

This year Ford's shareholders have not much to cheer for, with the stock down 35% year to date, hovering around $11. The timing of the dividend announcement acts as a main signaling factor in Ford's case.

• While a 5 cent dividend might be lower than analysts have expected (expectations were about 8 cents) the payment is ahead of schedule as major rating agencies have not rated Ford's credit investment-grade yet.
• Ford explicitly mentions to be cautious, as it does not want to skip or cut a dividend when economic headwinds might arrive. The new dividend policy is geared towards much more stable dividends tied to long-term performance.
• Bondholders are cheering pushing the 2021 8.875% notes up 2.5 point to 105 cents on the dollar. This shows that both equity and credit investors have trust in the company. Remember that higher dividends normally worsen the bondholders risk-return profile.
• The announcement comes just weeks after the four-year agreement with labor union UAW during which costs will rise 1% per annum giving much greater visibility on future profits and cash flows.

Shareholders should applaud Ford's move. While a 2% yield per annum is not spectacular, there is room for upside surprise, as under the lead of Alan Mulally, Ford has chosen a much more conservative and long-term financial strategy.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Dycom FYQ1 Misses; Stock off 8%

$336 million (market cap) Construction firm Dycom Industries (DY) is falling hard tonight after the company reported fiscal Q1 sales and profit below expectations. Revenue fell 22%, year over year, to $259 million, below the $269 million expected, yielding profit per share of 15 cents, excluding some costs, versus 17 cents expected.

The company’s services, primarily to telecoms and utilities, are suffering from reduced capital expenditures by those industries. The firm predicted a decline in revenue this quarter from last, which is about as expected: analysts have been forecasting $238 million this quarter. Dycom shares are off 71 cents, or 8%, at $8.

What’s Next for Natural Gas?

A headline on a piece last week by Erik Reguly in Toronto’s Globe and Mail put it succinctly, �Nuclear�s loss not a worry; the new world power is gas.�

Of course, he was talking about the likely public fear of nuclear energy in the wake of Japan�s disaster and the fact that shale gas in North America and elsewhere has boosted natural gas reserves to previously unimagined levels. Moreover, as Reguly explained, gas-burning power plants take roughly two years to complete and cost $1 billion. Compare that to a nuclear plant�s $6 billion price tag and the 10 years required to build one. �How can the nuclear, coal and renewable energy industry compete with vast supplies of cheap gas?� he asked. �They can�t. Even some nuclear industry executives admit as much.�

In fact, there is yet another reason to be bullish on natural gas � namely a new process being developed by several still-private companies that�s able to cost effectively transform natural gas into gasoline. As Scientific American noted �in April 2009, the process involves burning a portion of the gas to create temperatures of up to 3,300 degrees F, while a series of chemical reactions transforms it into the longer chains of hydro carbons we put in automobile tanks.

The Texas company that is making this happen, Synfuels International, envisions its process being used to recover some of the trillions of cubic feet of natural gas the World Bank estimates escapes from oil wells or is disposed of by burning. In less developed countries, this converted gasoline could be sold on the local market. Over time — assuming the process is widely adopted — it would exert downward pressure on world oil prices. Assuming the process is scalable, it might even be used to convert gas to gasoline in order to combat temporary oil price hikes. Say good-bye to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in other words.

So where does all this leave an investor who is�bullish on the natural gas industry? An expanding number of uses for natural gas will keep companies involved in shale gas development busy. And certainly, there are established shale gas plays such as Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) Petrohawk Energy (NYSE:HK) that are worth a look.

More speculative plays might include Flowtek Industries, (NYSE:FTK), which jumped 30% last Thursday on what some speculate was its use of citrus-based chemicals to extract gas from shale deposits, a method that�s perhaps more earth-friendly than the fracking chemicals that have aroused the ire of environmentalists and many who live near gas fields.

Meanwhile, companies such as Clean Energy Fuels� (NASDAQ:CLNE) are betting that municipalities, along with bus, taxi and trucking companies, or for that matter any organization that wants better control over fuel costs will find it worthwhile to run their vehicles on natural gas vs. gasoline. CLNE develops natural gas dispensing filling stations. Trading at just north of $13, the stock was up 2% on Monday. It�s a pure play in the purest of all easily recoverable naturally produced fuels and worth checking out.

At the time of publication, Mark Ingebretsen�did not hold any of the individual stocks named in this article; he may hold some of them through mutual funds.

The End of the Beginning?

The energy sector's surge over the last two days may lead some to believe that the rush is now on.

Well, not so fast.

The markets pulled back this morning.

That's expected after a run up. But we need to understand the primary concerns moving forward.

Those are direction and conviction.

The energy sector got slammed worse than the overall market as a whole when it was going down, and it advanced quicker when it increased.

So, what will happen from this point onward?

The safe answer is to suggest mostly lateral movement over the next several months. And that is what most of the TV pundits are doing.

And as usual, they are going to miss another boat.

What has happened over the last two sessions, overlooking the anticipated pullback today, is the first wave in the next move up. It is, therefore, actually the end of a beginning cycle that will put both prices and volatility for energy in general - and for oil in particular - back on the radar.

No move up in oil is accomplished by regular, easy to calculate increments.

But one genuinely new factor has emerged.

And it will dictate more of our investment moves as we get further into this event-filled summer.

Riding the Wave of Anticipation The return of instability, marked by price acceleration both up and down (but on aggregate leading to higher price levels), will be taking place over shorter periods.

This is an important new wrinkle to understand. It introduces a novel risk element into the equation while, at the same time, setting the stage for increasing profits. Those profits will develop over shorter time periods for the investor who is capable of riding ahead of this curve.

I call this development compression, and it has a pervasive impact on how you should approach to the market.

Traditionally, major market swings were thought to be rare. They were thought to be infrequent enough to be discounted by longer (and relative) periods of apparent stability. Value destruction or inflation would take place, but then a protracted period of consolidation would follow.

With the introduction of volatility indices (VIXs) - for the Dow, S&P, more focused market sectors, oil - analysts began charting the instability and (surprise, surprise) paper cutters found ways to trade derivatives off of VIX figures.

Today, just about every TV talking head will tell you that volatility is subdued, at inordinately (some are even saying "historically") low levels. What they don't factor in is a very important subsector pressure that is rapidly developing.

(Remember, these are the guys who predicted seven of the last two market swings!)

This is not hitting the market across the board, although when it erupts it will have market-wide effects. It is centered in the energy sector and in oil investments specifically.

Compression takes place when considerable change occurs over a short period.

More of the result takes place in a rapid advance or contraction. What I identified in the standard deviations (or sigmas) in option trading that led to my new Energy Sigma Traderservice is a case of this phenomenon.

We are now about to witness a similar development in the broader oil market.

Some of this (as ever) is the result of geopolitical events - primarily the approaching European embargo of Iranian oil imports, the simmering "Arab Spring," global demand levels, and emerging regional supply imbalances. Other causes include the continuing spread between Brent prices set in London and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) set in New York.

That spread increases volatility on both sides by distorting actual supply-demand calculations and magnifying pricing distortions for the bulk of daily oil trades worldwide using these two benchmarks as a base.

We have become so accustomed to those factors that they serve as 30-second "explanations" for the TV folks.

Unfortunately, these explanations do not really explain anything about the real wave coming.

Two Aspects of the New Reality are Coming Fast. Two new factors will undermine the previous way of looking at things. The new reality will not look much like the old one.

First, the cycles of compression will intensify.

In other words, not only will more be happening over shorter periods, those periods will be occurring with greater regularity. The time between peaks or valleys will itself compress, as will the activity within the deviations.

The usual assumption that a "normal" period will follow the instability, allowing the market to repair itself and establish a new trading equilibrium will be severely tested.

The technicians will have greater difficulty reading and interpreting their graphs.

Measuring the ripples from throwing a rock into the water is one thing. What we are going to experience is the equivalent of somebody throwing a handful of rocks in a short period of time.

It will distort the ability of traditional analysis both to define and explain what is taking place.

Second, once this cycle begins, it is likely to be derailed only by a major outside (exogenous) event.

The 2008 oil-pricing spike did not end because of something that happened within the oil market. It ended because of the demand and credit constriction resulting from an external collapse - the subprime mortgage mess.

I have been writing for some time now that the usual internal safety valves tempering oil-pricing fluctuations are having less and less success. That sets the stage for accelerating movements in oil being subject to more extreme outside restraints.

These continuing compressions will ultimately lead to an energy equation that demands significant change, both in terms of sourcing and usage. But that is still some time off.

What we have now is rising instability and pricing dynamics that will provide some real opportunities to make substantial profits.

There is a new trading environment emerging.

What we are experiencing is not the beginning of the end, but the curtain is coming down on the first act of a new play.

This is the end of the beginning.

And as the new rush moves in, we intend to trade in advance of it.

That's where the big money is going to be.

[Editor's Note: Brent crude prices will only accelerate with global uncertainty running amok.

But if you were anEnergy Advantagemember, you'd already know the biggest trend in energy today, and, best of all, how to protect yourself against this uncertainty.

And we're smack in the middle of the biggest energy event to hit the markets in years. To hear about it,CLICK HERE.]

Safe Investment – What Are Your Options?

Safe investment is the dreamed thing for everyone starting from little business to retired people that want to make their living up. This is the thing that bothers the nation in all ages. This thing is a problem that has stayed there too long and needs to be solved soon. Many governments have tried their best but yet no one manages to get what is most wanted by everyone.

401k plan is one of the plans that are retirements oriented. It was good for the time being but in the ever changing environment and stock market changes it is old and not working now. Many other plans followed by the banks and the government but yet one thing stays there. How to deal with the taxes on the saving we are doing. Taxes are the cut that the government takes from your money. The reason for that is to better everything from hospital to schools and etc. But not all money go to that direction and those flaws are the thing that makes the plans and the future plans also not working for the nation but rather for specific people that want to get their hands on more money without any hard work but staying home and watching TV.

Everyone hard earned penny will be taxed. The percentage of the taxes is sometime killing one. Safe investments are the thing that is most desired for all people. These investments will pay off after 30 or even 40 years and all that time they will be taxed. Each time you put money to your saving they will taxed, each month they will be taxed, each year they will be taxed by the bank or by the government.

Modern man has turned from a money gainer to a tax payer. If somebody has decided to save some money for the future allows the people to that on their own. Each man should receive the full amount of money that he or she has worked hard to get. After he or she gets it, it is his or hers responsibility to thing of the future.

Safe investments are hard to make in these days. The reasons for that are many. Starting from clashes on the stock market and going on with more global problems such as war, mass hunger, and mass death cause by nuclear explosion and etc. All these things no matter where they are located in the space will affect the way the money move from place to place. That is why these days it is hard and very difficult to find good way for safe investments. It is more likely the safest thing that a man could do is to take the money aside and put them in a box and then put the box under the bed. Probably nowadays it is the safest thing. Now that you have understood about safe investments, look out for the best possible way where you can invest your money and have happy returns.

Did you know that there are secure investment alternatives outside of the market?

I put together a free video that reveals a 200 year old financial tool that banks and Wall Street have been trying to keep secret from you. Visit my website here for the details: http://secureinvestmentsecrets.com

5 Companies That ‘Brought it Back’

If at first you don�t succeed … well, try doing what made you a success in the first place. “Bringin’ it Back” appears be the motto of an increasing number of companies — given the state of the economy, that�s not a surprise.

But going back to one�s roots is not easy and is no guarantee of success. Walt Disney�s (NYSE:DIS) ABC network just canceled �Charlie�s Angels,” which was one of the most iconic TV series of the 1970s — and should have been left there. And Sears Holdings‘ (NASDAQ:SHLD) Kmart brought back “blue-light specials” in 2009 after an 18-year absence, and that hasn’t done much to turn things around — while same-store sales rose 0.7% in 2010, Kmart�s same-store sales fell 1.7% in the first quarter and were flat in Q2.

Still, it’s difficult to ignore the temptation to retry something that worked before. MySpace’s new owners are trying to rekindle the once-explosive social network’s success, and heck, someone is even trying to bring back the DeLorean — a success as a pop culture icon thanks to “Back to the Future” but a business failure.

These five companies couldn’t resist and have either succeeded or are waiting for the payoff as they try to “bring it back”:

Wendy’s

The Wendy�s (NYSE:WEN) hamburger chain has struggled in the years since the 2002 death of founder Dave Thomas, who became a celebrity from his time as the company�s TV pitchman. When billionaire Nelson Peltz acquired the chain in 2008, Wendy’s stock had shed almost three-fourths of its 2012 value, and it dropped another 25% from that point through this year. To help revitalize the company, Wendy’s is invoking the name of its late founder.

Last month, Wendy’s rolled out its new burger, dubbed “Dave’s Hot and Juicy.” And while the burger’s moniker is a throwback to a much better time, the sandwich is a complete revamping of a decades-old recipe. Wendy�s sweated every detail of the burger, which features a bigger patty, buttered bun and extra cheese. USA TODAY even pointed out that the company consulted a �pickle chemist.� Whether the new burger will help boost Wendy�s bottom line is not clear.

    

Motorola

Back in the administration of George W. Bush, only the cool kids had a Motorola (NYSE:MMI) RAZR flip-phone. Millions of them were sold from 2004-07. Then, the RAZR faded into oblivion after Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) introduced the iPhone in 2007, and Motorola eventually replaced it with its own smartphone, the Droid, in 2009.

This month, Motorola announced it would be bringing back the RAZR name and pairing it with the aforementioned Droid. The pairing of old and new will use Google�s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android operating system and boast 1 GB of RAM and 16 GB of storage — and it will be made out of the takes-a-licking synthetic fiber Kevlar. So far, the verdict from experts is cautiously optimistic. Wired magazine noted, �With the solid performance, suite of accessories and fantastic industrial design, it’s only the somewhat unattractive interface that lets the Motorola Razr down.�

Gap

Casual clothing chain Gap Inc. (NYSE:GAP)’s namesake Gap stores have fallen on hard times.�North American same-store sales�are dropping this year and have fallen at least 5% in six of the last seven years. Gap has made numerous attempts to jolt the company back to life, including a logo change that lasted a week and, most recently, a clever but otherwise ineffective advertising campaign.

This month, Gap announced a two-pronged approach to finding its footing. The company will close 200 North American stores while opening 30 stores in China by next year. And the Gap also will go back to its roots — “high-quality jeans and casual clothes with an American aesthetic,” according to a Reuters report. The Gap hopes to build positive momentum behind its popular 1969 brand of jeans, bring back more bold colors and even simplify floor sets.

Volkswagen

The German automaker played the nostalgia game once, and now it’s doing it again — with a twist. In 1998, Volkswagen (PINK:VLKAY) introduced the �New Beetle,” whose design was inspired by the company�s best-selling �Bug� that was available in the U.S. from 1949 to 1979. The company sold 50,000, 80,000 and 80,000 more units in its first three years. However, the company’s annual number dwindled to less than 15,000 by 2009, and the Beetle was discontinued in 2010.

The 2012 Beetle will be the “new” New Beetle. Volkswagen promoted the vehicle in Super Bowl commercials and gave them away to members of the audience of the �Oprah Winfrey Show.� According to Auto Week, the Beetle is expected to sell 50,000 to 60,000 units in the U.S. annually. Some analysts expect the company to topple Toyota (NYSE:TM) as the world’s largest automaker

News Corp.

After News Corp.�s (NASDAQ:NWS) Fox network canceled �Family Guy�in 2002, the show developed a cult following. Reruns featuring the foul-mouthed Griffin family saw 1.9 million viewers, easily besting the rest of the programming on Cartoon Network’s late-night Adult Swim block of shows. And the first DVD volume of shows sold 1.6 million copies in 2003, making it the top TV DVD of the year, and the second volume sold another million copies.

Viewer love for “Family Guy” was so pronounced that Fox brought the show back after an unprecedented three-year hiatus. The show even poked fun of Fox, rattling off the 29 shows that had aired and been canceled during the interim. Since then, �Family Guy� has led or been among Fox’s top-rated shows.

As of this writing, Jonathan Berr does not own any shares of the aforementioned stocks. Follow him on Twitter at @Jdberr.

Intel: Street Upbeat on ‘Romley’ Prospects

The Street today is responding to yesterday’s presentation by Intel (INTC) at the New York Public Library of its “Romley” server line of microprocessors, unveiled in San Francisco earlier this month under the official name of the “Xeon E5.”

In the Trustees Room in the old Beaux-Arts building on 42nd Street and Fifth Avenue, Intel’s Data Center chief, Diane Bryant, a 25-year veteran, held meetings with a handful of press before addressing analysts. Bryant has been on the job only a few weeks, but displayed a firm grasp of the big picture and the particulars.

Fun factoids: Bryant hosts a “Texas Holdem” tournament for Intel staff every year at her home. Also, the Sacramento native was responsible for design of the “IO Buffer” in the 486 microprocessor — all six transistors of it — back when she was a fresh young UC Davis Double-E graduate.

(And an Itanium fun factoid: Did you know the high-end server chip is used to run all of Intel’s manufacturing operations, such as tracking the movement of wafers through the fab? Intel remains “very committed” to Itanium, Bryant told me.)

The Street seems largely enthused about the presentation.

Stifel Nicolaus’s Kevin Cassidy this morning reiterates a Buy rating on Intel shares and a $34 price target, writing,

We came away from the event convinced Romley could be Intel’s most successful server/storage/networking processor yet. Importantly, we expect Intel’s next server-class CPU based on the same architecture though on the 22nm process could surpass Romley in performance and revenue.

Credit Suisse’s John Pitzer this morning reiterates an Outperform rating on shares of Intel and a $35 price target, writing that the Data Center operation is “not your grandfather’s server business”:

OEMs had over 400 designs set for volume deployment across Server, Storage and Networking which is 2x the amount of Nehalem; 2) 100 of those 400 designs (25%) were in Comms Infrastructure vs. low single digit % for Nehalem; and 3) those 100 designs can now target the Application, Control and Data planes of the Networking market vs. largely just the Control plane with Nehalem. To sum it up, INTC�s Server chip business is NOT just a play on Enterprise Servers (2% unit CAGR), it is a levered play on robust growth in Networking (40% CAGR), Storage (20% CAGR) and the Cloud (30% CAGR).

Intel shares today are down 8 cents at $28.08.

Fin

Amid Oil Turmoil and Higher Prices, Think China Alternatives and Uranium

Here is your reality on oil prices and the surge of democracy in North Africa and the Middle East ... this feels a little like the fall of communism – widespread and domino like. BUT the difference is, we don’t know who is going to take over.

With the fall of communism, we knew who was taking over and the U.S. had cemented itself as the peace broker in the process. This is very different – and while I don’t think this will prove horrible to U.S. interests (a different reality for sure) in the region – the dust is not going to settle anytime soon.

If your worst case scenario is Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Al Queda influences in power, then oil becomes a political weapon for the new power regimes. If you have military transition and uncertain leadership, elections and evolution – this will take months if not years.

We may be in a period of higher oil prices for longer than we have ever dealt with, if only for the reality that this will take time and oil is a weapon.

There is no other way for the world to go than alternative and nuclear energy.

Some alternative energy plays to consider in the reality of higher oil:

China Solar

• (TSL) – Trina Solar
• (STP) – Suntech Power Holdings
• (YGE) – Yingli Green Energy

Anyone who watches the Shanghai market knows how many Chinese solar stocks there are out there, but many investors have been content to simply trade the group. Start by taking a look at Trina Solar.

Uranium Miners

• (SXRZF.PK) – Uranium One

With North Sea oil over $100 a barrel, the alternative fuels are back in rally mode. Good news for solar developers and other renewable plays — and good news for the uranium miners too.

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Should Mitek Systems Acquire Top Image Systems?

One of the discussion topics on Micro Cap Club, has been about the possibility of Mitek Systems (MITK) acquiring Top Image Systems (TISA). Both Mitek Systems and Top Image Systems have similar stories via a history of working with large banks and leveraging those relationships to market and launch mobile banking applications.

Mitek Systems was incorporated in 1986 and went public in the early 1990's. The company historically provided financial institutions with advanced imaging and analytics software to authenticate and extract data from checks and other documents. The company was an unknown until 2009 when smart phone camera technology made it possible for Mitek to develop mobile apps for the banking industry. Since then Mitek has rolled out a mobile banking suite which includes Mobile Deposit®, Mobile Photo Bill Pay™, Mobile ACH™ and Mobile Balance Transfer™. Mobile Deposit has quickly gained market penetration with 250 financial institutions, including eight of the top 10 banks, which have signed agreements to deploy Mobile Deposit.

The company markets and sells Mobile Deposit® primarily through sales partnerships with leading system integrators for the financial services industry including Fiserv, Inc., Fidelity National Information Services, Inc., NCR Corporation, Jack Henry & Associates, Inc., Wausau Financial Systems, Inc., BankServ, RDM Corporation, J&B Software Inc., Bluepoint Solutions, Inc., and others. Mitek apparently makes around $0.10 every time a check is deposited. Mobile Deposit is the largest revenue contributor to date but there seems to be hundreds of uses outside this one area. For example, in early February 2012, Mitek entered the insurance vertical by announcing a deal with Progressive to launch Mitek's Mobile Photo Quoting, Mobile Photo Payment, Mobile Photo Claims, and Mobile Photo Document Capture.

Mitek System's stock has gone on an incredible run from $0.50 - $13.00 over the last two years. Four analysts cover Mitek with an average price target of $15.33. With the stock near an all time high, it would make sense for the company to use its stock as currency to acquire strategic assets while also gaining an international footprint. Mitek Systems ($300 million market cap) should take a look at Top Image Systems ($34 million market cap).

Top Image Systems (TISA), founded in 1991, is a leading enterprise content management solutions provider for automating banking, invoice, mail room, and other processes. The company has over 800 installations in over 40 countries. The company has a strong European and Asian presence and works with some of the largest financial institutions including Citibank (C), Standard Chartered Bank (SCBFF.PK), HML, and Deutsche Bank (DB). Top Image is launching mobile banking apps into its end markets via MobiCHECK (Deposit), MobiPAY (billpay), and MobiCLOUD.

Top Image Systems is planning to leverage its relationships to launch its mobile banking app initiative in 2012. Not only does Top Image plan to launch its mobile banking apps internationally, but it plans to open a sales office in the U.S. to promote the mobile banking platform and compete with Mitek head to head. While Mitek holds a dominant position with Mobile Deposit here in the United States, it only has one Mobile Bill Pay customer (two others pilot testing), so this market is up for grabs. Piper Jaffray believes Mobile Bill Pay is not only a larger market ($350 million) but it is also a "catalyst" app for other applications.

Top Image Systems not only works with major banks but also some of the largest players in Energy, Transportation and Logistics (FedEx (FDX), DHL, etc), as well as many government agencies. This established customer base outside of the banking sector could prove useful for more mobile applications.

Top Image System's reported impressive FY2011 results from its core business (pre mobile app roll out), while giving strong guidance for FY 2012. In 2011 revenues increased 32% to $28.7 million with EPS up 76% to $0.30. The company has $2.1 million in cash and no debt. TISA is currently trading at 10x TTM EPS.

There have been 66 recent M&A transactions in the space, including: IBM (IBM) acquiring FileNet and Datacap, Open Text (OTXT) acquired Vignette, Kofax (KFAXF.PK) acquired 170 systems, and HP (HPQ) acquired Autonomy. The average multiples paid were: 3.6x trailing revenue, 20x trailing EBITDA, and 33.6x trailing net income.

When I first heard the Top Image Systems story a few months back, I thought it was a bad euro knock off version of Mitek. The more I followed the company the more impressed I became of its core business and how this core business was undervalued at its current valuation. A friend of mine posed the question about Mitek potentially acquiring Top Image for this core asset and its international presence.

Top Image hasn't deployed any mobile solutions to date, but if the company is successful in even getting one major client, I'm sure the marketplace would quickly revalue TISA shares much higher. With Mitek shares currently being valued at 100x the average analyst EPS estimates for FY 2012 and with a $100 million shelf registration sitting out there, an acquisition isn't too far fetched.

Top Image Systems Presentation

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Tyson Foods Beats on EPS but GAAP Results Lag

Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN  ) reported earnings on Feb. 3. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q1), Tyson Foods met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew and GAAP earnings per share contracted significantly.

Margins dropped across the board.

Revenue details
Tyson Foods tallied revenue of $8.33 billion. The 14 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for revenue of $8.29 billion. Sales were 9.4% higher than the prior-year quarter's $7.62 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions.

EPS details
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.42. The 16 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.34 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS of $0.41 for Q1 were 48% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.79 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Figures may be non-GAAP to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 5.9%, 390 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 3.3%, 320 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 1.9%, 200 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $8.48 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.45.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $34.41 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.06.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 261 members out of 332 rating the stock outperform, and 71 members rating it underperform. Among 94 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 78 give Tyson Foods a green thumbs-up, and 16 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Tyson Foods is outperform, with an average price target of $22.86.

• Add Tyson Foods to My Watchlist.

S.W.A.T Teams to the Gulf! Time to Sell Oil Companies?

by Dominique de Kevelioc, de Bailleul

Anyone watching President Obama speak from the White House Rose Garden should be shaking their heads following his bizarre statement regarding the British Petroleum oil spill in the gulf.

“I do want to speak briefly to the American people about the recent BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico,� said Obama. �Earlier today DHS Secretary Napolitano announced that this incident is of national significance and the Department of Interior has announced that they will be sending SWAT teams to the Gulf to inspect all platforms and rigs and I have ordered the secretaries of interior and Homeland Security as well as administrator Lisa Jackson of the Environmental Protection Agency to visit the site on Friday to ensure that BP and the entire U.S. government is doing everything possible not just to respond to this incident but also to determine its cause.”

This administration, not unlike the past one, has used the threat of terrorism in every instance to snatch rights, freedoms and treasure from the American people. With the reinvestigation behind the unlikely cause of the destruction of the twin towers in New York gaining steam along with the swing toward referring disbelievers of the official report of 9-11 as patriots and not as manic-depressives to whom the government �useless idiots� would like to have these brave people of conscience referred, we are given another incident of disaster to ponder� whether the truth will be told regarding the BP oil spill or will another bizarre executive order be forthcoming instead.

For our safety, of course, the U.S. goon squad may just seize the U.S. oil industry in the name of national security, spinning the move as anything but a Hugo Chavez banana republic seizure of property rights. S.W.A.T teams don�t have the expertise to determine the cause of an oil leak from an offshore platform as far as we knew.

People, those darn terrorist are at it again. Give the government your property.

Was the spill caused by a terrorist group? Of course, anything is possible. But the question that will linger in the minds of many sane and rational Americans is: Is this just another Reichstag ploy to again bypass the legislative processes required of our Constitutional Republic?

Still not convinced that something might be askew in this ongoing nightmare of incremental insidious tyranny on the loose?

�Private security guards with Blackhawk Protection blocked media access to the hotel early Thursday, and would not let reporters or photographers near the area where rig workers were getting off vans,� wrote Chris Kirkham of The Times-Picayune, who reported on the workers� arrival to shore from the offshore BP rig in question.

Something is obviously not right. Reporters cannot ask questions in the new Fascist Republic. Freedom of the Press has been abolished as well. This is not an isolated incident of the federal-level goon squads preventing press coverage with assault rifles and armed stooges. Everything now is a matter of national security, didn’t you know?

Since not many answers will likely be forthcoming regarding the BP oil spill, should investors sell shares of oil companies?

Under these mysterious circumstances, holders of oil stocks may want to consider dumping shares and take a wait-and-see posture until this latest U.S. government sideshow is resolved. The three biggest industries are under attack or meddled by this government gone rogue, including the bank, healthcare, and now, possibly, energy industries.

Caution is advised. A lot of private enterprises have been seized or mangled during the past two years, wiping out investors or enriching them depending upon the whims of a Czar in charge at the moment.

The American people have questions of THEIR government, many questions. What ever happened to the polite phrase we often heard in school, �There�s no such thing as a stupid question.� Apparently, the U.S. government determines whether a question is stupid or not, and then decides whether it should S.W.A.T team you for daring to ask.