Saturday, February 2, 2013

Are You Expecting This from Chipotle Mexican Grill?

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 5. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenues will increase 17.1% and EPS will expand 8.3%.

The average estimate for revenue is $698.8 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.96.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Chipotle Mexican Grill booked revenue of $700.5 million. GAAP reported sales were 18% higher than the prior-year quarter's $591.9 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, EPS came in at $2.27. GAAP EPS of $2.27 for Q3 were 19% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.90 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 37.9%, 60 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 17.0%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 10.3%, 10 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $2.73 billion. The average EPS estimate is $8.77.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 2,760 members out of 3,200 rating the stock outperform, and 440 members rating it underperform. Among 1,009 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 926 give Chipotle Mexican Grill a green thumbs-up, and 83 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Chipotle Mexican Grill is hold, with an average price target of $388.00.

With hundreds of companies out there vying with Chipotle Mexican Grill for shoppers' dollars, strong brands matter, and they can provide growth for even boring, mature companies -- as long as they're the right ones. That's why we've compiled a special report on "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Chipotle Mexican Grill to My Watchlist.

Washington Post Explores Sale of HQ Building

Washington Post (NYSE: WPO  ) is contemplating the sale of its headquarters building in the nation's capital. The company has been ensconced in the complex since 1950, and it has witnessed many historic moments. Most notably, it was where reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein wrote a series of articles on the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s.

Publisher Katharine Weymouth, in an email to employees published on the newspaper's business blog, alluded to the company's need to modernize and streamline its operations. "Once we removed the presses from this building over 10 years ago, we were no longer tied to this particular location," she wrote.

"Our preliminary analysis suggests that a move will make good operational and economic sense; however, we have not yet decided on where or when," Weymouth added.

This Income-Boosting Strategy Is Dangerous Right Now

Investors always like the idea of getting something for nothing. If you're willing to consider adding options to your investing arsenal, one strategy seems to offer you the chance to get paid to do something you would have done anyway.

As so often happens, though, there's no such thing as a free lunch on Wall Street. Later on, I'll explain why this strategy is so dangerous right now, but first, let's get you up to speed on exactly what strategy we're talking about and why it looks so attractive.

Buying the dips
Many investors reject options-based investing strategies out of hand, thinking that options are extremely risky instruments that can lose their entire value. But like any tool, options are only as risky as the purposes you use them for. Although you certainly can make extremely high-risk bets using options, other options strategies can actually reduce the risk in your portfolio.

One strategy that many value investors use is called put-writing. To use this strategy, you take a stock that you're interested in buying but whose price is currently higher than you're willing to pay. After you choose a lower price at which the stock would be attractive, you then write a put option that allows the option-buyer to sell shares to you at that price.

The strategy has two possible outcomes. If the stock never falls below the strike price of the option, then the put buyer won't exercise the option. You won't get the shares, but you will get to pocket the money that you received when you wrote the put. On the other hand, if the stock is below the agreed-upon price, then the put buyer usually will exercise the option. The put buyer will sell shares to you, but it will be at the agreed-upon lower strike price. Moreover, you'll get an even bigger discount because you still get to keep the money you got when you wrote the option.

Better than limit orders?
Notice how in both cases, you got to keep the proceeds from selling the put option. That makes the put-writing strategy seem a lot smarter than doing what many investors do instead: putting in a limit order to buy shares at a certain lower price. With limit orders, you don't get paid anything for your commitment.

But limit orders aren't exactly the same as writing puts. For one thing, as long as the stock price doesn't trigger the order, you can always cancel a limit order if something fundamental changes about the stock. With put options, on the other hand, you'd have to buy the option back, in some cases paying more than you originally received when you wrote the option. Also, limit orders execute at any time, while options tend to get exercised only near expiration. Therefore, even if the stock temporarily dips, a put option might not get exercised even where a limit order would have gotten cheap shares for you.

Another worrisome thing about put-writing is the fact that because the S&P Volatility Index (VOLATILITYINDICES: ^VIX  ) , which some call the fear index, has been extremely low lately, put-writing often produces less income than it does during more normal markets. Put writers actually want fear levels in the market to be higher because that fear boosts the amount that put buyers are willing to pay for the option.

Most important, with the stock market approaching record highs, many stocks are trading well above what value investors would prefer to pay. Writing put options doesn't work as well when you choose a strike price far below the current price, because the odds of such a big decline are quite low. Combine that with the overall lack of volatility, and you may find that writing puts isn't worth the trouble and extra commissions that you'll pay.

Keep your options open
Right now, it's better to focus put-writing attention on individual stocks that have gotten hammered hard lately. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) obviously comes to mind after its recent growth disappointment, as panicked investors are paying up for protection from further losses. Similarly, VMware (NYSE: VMW  ) and majority-owner EMC (NYSE: EMC  ) both may make good put-writing candidates after VMware's guidance failed to live up to investors' high expectations. Despite saying that growth in its licensing business would slow considerably this year, VMware still has plenty of potential, and investors may well have bid down the shares too aggressively.

For the most part, though, when market volatility is low, the best options strategies are ones that involving buying options rather than writing them. As a result, you should wait until more fear creeps back into investors' minds before trying to capitalize on a put-writing strategy.

As much as Apple has gotten beaten down, it's an interesting candidate for put-writing if you believe in its prospects. But there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on both reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, and what opportunities are left for the company (and more important, your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thinking on Apple, simply click here now.

Quantum Goes Red

Quantum (NYSE: QTM  ) reported earnings on Jan. 30. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q3), Quantum met expectations on revenues and exceeded expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank and GAAP earnings per share dropped to a loss.

Gross margins increased, operating margins dropped, net margins dropped.

Revenue details
Quantum recorded revenue of $159.4 million. The six analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated a top line of $159.7 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 8.1% lower than the prior-year quarter's $173.5 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.02. The six earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.00 per share. GAAP EPS were -$0.04 for Q3 compared to $0.02 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 42.7%, 20 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 0.6%, 340 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -5.1%, 740 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $150.6 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.01.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $598.6 million. The average EPS estimate is -$0.05.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 171 members out of 199 rating the stock outperform, and 28 members rating it underperform. Among 30 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 25 give Quantum a green thumbs-up, and five give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Quantum is outperform, with an average price target of $2.07.

Is Quantum the best tech stock for you? You may be missing something obvious. Check out the semiconductor company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Quantum to My Watchlist.

Has Capstone Turbine Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Capstone Turbine.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth

5-year annual revenue growth > 15%

36.8%

Pass

1-year revenue growth > 12%

18.1%

Pass

Margins

Gross margin > 35%

6.9%

Fail

Net margin > 15%

(26.7%)

Fail

Balance sheet

Debt to equity < 50%

24.5%

Pass

Current ratio > 1.3

1.91

Pass

Opportunities

Return on equity > 15%

(73.1%)

Fail

Valuation

Normalized P/E < 20

NM

NM

Dividends

Current yield > 2%

0%

Fail

5-year dividend growth > 10%

0%

Fail

Total score

4 out of 9

Source: S&P Capital IQ. NM = not meaningful due to negative earnings. Total score = number of passes.

Since we looked at Capstone Turbine last year, the company has kept its four-point score for the third year in a row. But the stock has suffered, losing a third of its value in the past year.

On one hand, Capstone has done a good job of making revenue growth a priority. Although the nearly 37% annual growth over the past five years came off a small base, record order backlogs point to continued success in Capstone getting business for the foreseeable future. Success in weathering Hurricane Sandy when traditional utilities had massive outages for weeks following the storm also boosted Capstone's reputation.

Yet profitability has eluded Capstone. One problem is that truly large customers that want localized co-generation capability can turn to General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) , Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) , or the Pratt & Whitney division of United Technologies. Each of those companies competes to provide big power plants that can support the needs of hospitals, manufacturing facilities, or collegiate institutions. By contrast, Capstone has a niche in provider options for smaller businesses and residential use, but those areas haven't ramped up yet.

The potential gold mine for Capstone comes from the energy industry, where the need for power in remote drilling locations is tailor-made for Capstone microturbines. With Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG  ) having made big orders for Capstone products to power their shale gas operations, the precedent has been set. With low natural-gas prices having curtailed production, though, the extensive capital expenditures necessary to get Capstone systems up and running haven't been on oil and gas producers' priority lists.

For Capstone to improve, it needs to work on convincing residential consumers and small businesses that its revolutionary power-distribution model is superior to the grid-based structure that current utilities use. That's a tall order, but if Capstone can pull it off, then the stock has plenty of room to recover.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Capstone is laser-focused on small-scale power applications, but GE is the master at big power projects. Find out whether GE is the better buy in our premium research report, in which our industrials analyst breaks down GE's multiple businesses. You'll find reasons to buy or sell GE, and you'll receive continuing updates as major events unfold during the year. To get started, click here now.

Click here to add Capstone Turbine to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Why Copano Energy Shares Surged

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of natural gas company Copano Energy LLC (NASDAQ: CPNO  ) climbed 15% today, after Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP  ) agreed to acquire it for about $3.2 billion.

So what: The all-stock deal values Copano at $40.91 per unit, and represents a 24% premium to its closing price on Tuesday. KMP is making the move to boost its access to increasingly-attractive shale basins in Texas, Wyoming, and Oklahoma, but, judging by its own stock's pullback today, Mr. Market isn't too excited over the price being paid to do it.

Now what: The deal is expected to close in the third quarter, and should be immediately accretive to cash available for distribution to KMP unit holders. According to KMP Chairman and CEO Richard Kinder:

Copano's assets are very complementary to ours, as [Kinder Morgan] is principally a pipeline transportation and storage company, while Copano is primarily a fee-based gathering, processing and fractionation player.�. Broadening our midstream assets will allow us to offer a wider array of services to our customers.

While Copano's upside is likely limited at this point, KMP's newly-bolstered growth prospects might help spur some long-term gains.

How about Kinder Morgan? Add it to your watchlist.

Wynn Earnings: Macau Results Fall Behind Competitors

The earnings reports from Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS  ) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN  ) over the last two days couldn't have been any more different. Sands had a great quarter in Macau, growing revenue and EBITDA well ahead of the Macau market's overall pace; Wynn lost a lot of ground in Macau. Wynn had an outstanding quarter in Las Vegas; Sands dropped like a rock.

For both companies, the Macau market accounts for more of their revenue and earnings, so the quarter's win goes to Las Vegas Sands, no questions. Let's take a closer look at the results.

Digging into the numbers
In yesterday's review of Las Vegas Sands' results, I covered the EBITDA growth of the company's casinos, pointing out that Cotai is continuing to steal share. The narrative continued today because Wynn saw a 9.7% decline in revenue and a 9.5% decline in EBITDA to $283.2 million.

I don't expect this general trend to reverse anytime soon, and I expect to see somewhat negative Macau results from MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM  ) and similar positive results from Melco Crown (NASDAQ: MPEL  ) .

To take a fundamental look at where gaming play is headed, I've listed below the VIP (rolling chip) level of play and the mass market level of play at the three most established and profitable casinos Wynn and Las Vegas Sands own. Companies report numbers slightly differently, so don't pay attention to the absolute number; instead focus on the change year over year. These numbers also take luck out of the equation, something that can skew EBITDA numbers quarter to quarter.

Casino

Rolling Chip Drop

YOY Change

Mass Market Drop

YOY Change

The Venetian Macau

$12.7 billion

(6.6%)

$1.2 billion

10.5%

Wynn Macau

$27.7 billion

(6.6%)

$699.3 million

(1.0%)

Sands Macau

$5.8 billion

(24.2%)

$708.6 million

3.1%

Source: Company earnings releases.

What we see are two things: Mass market is clearly stronger than VIP play right now, and Cotai is where gaming is headed, particularly for mass play.

The table above shows why Las Vegas Sands is outperforming Wynn and likely the other players on the Macau Peninsula right now.

Growth opportunities
On the conference call, CEO Steve Wynn talked a lot about expanding the company, not only in Macau, but also urban developments in places like Boston and Philadelphia. More U.S. development doesn't excite me given the massive competition, and until the company announces something concrete, it's hard to evaluate an opportunity.

In Macau, Wynn is spending as much as $4 billion on a resort that will be completed in three years. This will open about the time that Las Vegas Sands opens The Parisian and MGM Resorts opens a new resort.

What happens in Vegas
The interesting part of today's report, and what has kept the stock out of free fall, is very good numbers in Las Vegas. Revenue was up 12.1% in the quarter to $390.4 million and EBITDA was up 29.4% to $115.3 million.

Better-than-expected win percentage helped results, but so did a 14.3% jump in table game play and a 14.9% jump in slot play. This compares to a 13.7% drop in table play at Las Vegas Sands' strip resorts and a 0.7% decline in slot play.

MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment� (NASDAQ: CZR  ) both have a lot riding on Las Vegas, which has recovered slowly in 2012, and it will be interesting to see what they report. Both room revenue and food and beverage was mixed for the two companies that have reported, and they don't give a lot of indication of what MGM or Caesars will report.

Foolish bottom line
The results for Wynn out of Macau are disappointing, and I don't expect them to markedly improve until 2016 when the company's new Cotai resort is complete. Until then, I think flat revenue and EBITDA for Wynn as a whole would be a reasonable expectation, along the lines with what the past year has been. For long-term investors, the thesis is that the Cotai resort can double both revenue and EBITDA for the whole company and that's worth hanging on for.

In the near term, Las Vegas Sands will continue to take share because of growth on Cotai, and so will Melco Crown.

Macau has grown to five-and-a-half times the size of the Las Vegas Strip, with $33.6 billion of gaming revenue in 2011, but Wynn Resorts is falling behind because it doesn't yet have exposure to Cotai. That will soon change, and construction is under way on the next resort from Steve Wynn, so what will the impact be? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Wynn Resorts research available for smart investors like you. Thousands have already claimed their own premium ticker coverage, and you can gain instant access to your own by clicking here now.

Friday, February 1, 2013

PMC-Sierra Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

PMC-Sierra (Nasdaq: PMCS  ) reported earnings on Jan. 31. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 29 (Q4), PMC-Sierra beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank significantly and GAAP earnings per share dropped significantly.

Gross margins increased, operating margins dropped, net margins contracted.

Revenue details
PMC-Sierra logged revenue of $129.4 million. The nine analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for a top line of $126.5 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 15% lower than the prior-year quarter's $152.6 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.12. The 10 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.10 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.05 for Q4 were 58% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.12 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 71.7%, 310 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 4.6%, 440 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 8.6%, 1,000 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $124.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.08.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $538.5 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.40.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 212 members out of 231 rating the stock outperform, and 19 members rating it underperform. Among 48 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 45 give PMC-Sierra a green thumbs-up, and three give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on PMC-Sierra is hold, with an average price target of $5.75.

Is PMC-Sierra the best semiconductor stock for you? You may be missing something obvious. Check out the semiconductor company that Motley Fool analysts expect to lead "The Next Trillion-dollar Revolution." Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add PMC-Sierra to My Watchlist.

Energy Stocks: Energy stocks off, Occidental gains after earnings

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Energy stocks fell Thursday, with better-than-expected earnings breathing some life into Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Consol Energy Inc., among others.

Shares of Occidental OXY �rose 3.5% as the company reported a fourth-quarter earnings decline that beat Wall Street expectations on stronger volumes, sharply lower expenses and higher profit in its chemical business.

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Falling profits at Royal Dutch Shell last year could be explained by volatile oil and gas prices. But Andrew Peaple reckons economies of scale may no longer be working for the oil giant.

Excluding a one-off charge, Occidental�s earnings were $1.83 a share on revenue of $6.17 billion. Analyst expectations had hovered at $1.66 a share on revenue of $5.85 billion. Read: Occidental's earnings fall on write-down.

Shares rallied more than 10% in the past three months, and declined about 12% in the past year.

�We expect shares to continue to outperform on the heels of this report,� analysts at Sterne Agee wrote in a report to clients. Occidental�s board is slated to meet in mid-February, and there is �good chance� the board will approve a dividend increase to 62 cents or 65 cents a share from the current 54 cents, implying a 3% yield, they said.

Shares of coal miner Consol CNX �advanced 0.6%. Consol profit fell on lower production, but the miner also surpassed analysts� expectations. It reported a fourth-quarter profit of $149.9 million, or 65 cents a share, down from $195.6 million or 85 cents a share a year earlier. Revenue dropped 9.9% to $1.39 billion.

Analysts expected income of 24 cents a share on $1.29 billion in revenue. Read: Consol profit down on lower coal volume.

Enlarge Image

ConocoPhillips COP �shares declined 5.1%, one of the heaviest losses among energy stocks on the S&P 500 Index SPX . ConocoPhillips late Wednesday reported a decline in earnings and missed analysts� expectations.

The Houston-based company said profits reached $1.43 billion, or $1.16 a share, down from $3.39 billion or $2.56 a share a year earlier. Adjusted earnings fell to $1.43 a share from $1.55 a share on lower commodity prices, according to the company.

Analysts had expected adjusted earnings of $1.42 on revenue of $13.31 billion. ConocoPhillips earnings fall on lower oil and gas prices.

ConocoPhillips rivals Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM �and Chevron Corp. CVX �turned lower, and ended the day down 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Both companies are slated to report fourth-quarter results Friday.

U.S.-listed shares of Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A �retreated 3%. Shell on Thursday reported a rise in fourth-quarter profits.

The Anglo-Dutch company said it would increase capital expenditure this year to find and develop more resources and rejoin the world�s top oil and gas producers by 2018.

Shell said it expected $33 billion of net capital investment this year, up 10% from 2012, with a large portion of that going to high-risk, costly ventures to grow production in areas such as the Arctic and Kazakhstan.

Shares of Hess Corp. HES �fell 1.1% following steep gains earlier this week, on news it was planning to sell its New Jersey refinery and as hedge fund Elliott Management called for a company reorganization and board shake-up.

Analysts at Soci�t� G�n�rale, Tudor Pickering Holt and UBS downgraded Hess stock to neutral from buy following the rally, which had taken the stock to gains around 30% so far this year.

Cameron International Corp. CAM �shares rose 4%. The oil-field services company reported a profit of $218.3 million, or 88 cents a share, up from $99.9 million or 40 cents a share a year earlier. Revenue rose 19% to $2.43 billion. See: Cameron International net doubles.

Cameron also forecast earnings of 70 cents to 75 cents a share in the first quarter and 2013 earnings of $3.70 to $3.95 a share. Analysts peg first-quarter earnings at 84 cents per share and 2013 earnings at $4.04 per share.

The company is trading at lower multiples than peers and its own historic average, analysts at UBS wrote in a note. �Despite the lowered earnings guidance for 2013, we continue to like the stock. We are impressed with the strong order rate and believe 2013 should be another strong order year, which will begin to translate into earnings in 2014,� they said.

The SPDR Energy Select Sector XLE , an exchange-traded fund covering energy names, declined 0.4%. Crude futures CLH3 �were off 0.5% at $97.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chrome Is a Bigger Threat to Windows Than You Think

Tablets aren't the only devices taking sales from PC makers. Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Chromebook is also taking a toll, if comments from Acer are to be believed.

Chrome OS-based machines accounted for between 5% and 10% of the Taiwanese computer maker's U.S. shipments in the fourth quarter, company president Jim Wong told Bloomberg Businessweek in a recent interview. Overall shipments dropped 28% over the same period, suggesting a weak climate for Windows PC sales.

"Windows 8 itself is still not successful," Wong told the magazine. "The whole market didn't come back to growth after the Windows 8 launch, that's a simple way to judge if it is successful or not."

His account matches up with what we've seen recently from the PC industry's other key participants. For example, Intel�issued uninspiring first-quarter earlier this month, continuing a trends that's seen the chip maker's revenue and profit decline over the past year.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) hasn't fared much better. Windows division revenue came in at $5.9 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase. Trouble is, that total is more than $1 billion short of Microsoft's last major release: Windows 7 helped push division revenue to $6.9 billion in fiscal 2010's second quarter.

Mr. Softy's backers will rightly point out that 60 million Windows 8 licenses have been sold to date. And yet license commitments don't equal quantifiable PC sales. We've no idea how many "licensed" Windows 8 PCs Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and their peers have sold as of this writing.

Which brings us back to Acer. If Chromebooks are selling well enough to account for more than 5% of of sales -- enough that the company is considering taking the device to new markets -- then there has to be a growing base of customers who use it as a PC alternative.

Windows may still dominate the world, but the clouds are finally rolling in. Do you agree? Disagree? Either way, we want to hear you think in the comments box below. And remember: if you're interested in further analysis of Microsoft's prospects in a post-PC world, we've compiled�a premium research report�that digs into the details of the business and tells you whether the stock is a buy right now. Just�click here to claim your copy.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Who Will Win This Small Drug Market?

Isis (NASDAQ: ISIS  ) and Sanofi (NYSE: SNY  ) received Food and Drug Administration approval this week for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) treatment Kynamro. HoFH is a rare genetic disease that causes severely high LDL levels that pose cardiac risks. The patient pool resembles a puddle and already contains a contender:�Aegerion's (NASDAQ: AEGR  ) �Juxtapid received approval last month.

Who will win?

Close match
HoFH treatments qualify for orphan status, which means that the patient population is small but the drugs can carry a higher price tag to compensate. The battle between Kynamro and Juxtapid might never have a clear victor, though I'd personally consider Juxtapid the stronger candidate.

Juxtapid and Kynamro have run nearly parallel down the pipelines, and both have proven effective while also presenting comparable liver safety risks. But Kynamro had an additional health risk that raised questions last fall.

When Juxtapid went before an FDA panel, the vote was 13-2 in favor of approval. Kynamro's panel voted 9-6 the following day, citing concerns with the abnormal tissue growth that appeared in 3.1% of the trial's patients. Kynamro later received a negative recommendation from the European Medicines Agency, which disagreed with the FDA that the merits outweighed the cancer risks.

But both drugs might find a market. HoFH treatment often requires patients to try different drugs until striking upon the right combination. Kynamro seems at a disadvantage due to the safety issue, but Isis also has Sanofi in its corner.

Juxtapid is Aegerion's only drug, putting it in a particularly vulnerable position. The company announced a last-minute deal with its development partner Catalant, but that's not in the same league as Sanofi. A vague secondary offering was announced early this month to help fund Juxtapid's launch.

Another step back
Juxtapid could best Kynamro financially if Aegerion received an indication expansion to include heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (heFH) � the far more common genetic cholesterol condition. Juxtapid and Kynamro might face expansion difficulties due to their liver safety risks, but if one makes it through, it will probably be Juxtapid.

That market won't be an easy win either as it might become crowded with a new group of statin rivals running up the pipes. Statins like Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) 's off-patent Lipitor tend to lack the strength required to manage the severely high LDL levels associated with heFH or HoFH. While the companies pushing the potent new drugs openly pursue general high-cholesterol patients, these rare genetic conditions would make for an easier sell.

Foolish final thoughts
Juxtapid will likely sell well within its market. But the key question remains: What will Aegerion do next? Until the answer to that question becomes clear, I'm going to play the waiting game.

While you can certainly make huge gains in biotech and pharmaceuticals, the best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. In our free report "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich," we name stocks that could help you build long-term wealth and retire well, along with some winning wealth-building strategies that every investor should be aware of.�Click here now�to keep reading.

Germany Weighs Bank Split

FRANKFURT�Germany's ruling coalition will propose a plan to isolate banks' risky activities from customer deposits, according to a draft law seen by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

Under the draft law, banks with proprietary trading, high-frequency trading or hedge-fund-financing operations that make up either 20% of the balance-sheet value or surpass �100 billion ($135 billion) in value will be required to transfer their risky businesses into legally and financially separate units.

Critics, including Germany's opposition parties, said the proposals don't go far enough.

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Analysts said it was unclear how the plan would affect Deutsche Bank.

It is unclear how many banks the new rules will affect, analysts said, and the number will likely depend on how some of the risky activities are defined. Deutsche Bank AG, Europe's largest bank by assets with a nearly �2.2 trillion balance sheet, shut down its proprietary-trading unit in 2008 but maintains large high-frequency-trading and prime-brokerage arms.

Analysts said details were insufficient to determine how the law might affect Deutsche Bank, although it could hurt the bank's attempts to bolster its financial strength if it is forced to hive off business units and set aside capital for them.

"It will not be helpful [for Deutsche Bank]. It's all about the extent to which it will not be helpful," said Christopher Wheeler, a banking analyst with Mediobanca in London.

Germany's banking sector opposes the measure. "There has so far not been any evidence that separating the trading businesses will increase financial-market stability," Michael Kemmer, president of the Association of German Banks, said. "There is no need for this hasty legislative initiative."

While market-making activities won't be automatically affected by the law, German banking regulator BaFin will be given the right to determine whether such activities could be destabilizing, and the power to stop banks from undertaking them. In addition, the law would require that banks submit wind-down and contingency plans in case of financial trouble, which have already been requested by BaFin.

The proposed rules would most likely affect Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank AG and Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, as institutions with large trading operations. Representatives of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank referred to the statement by the banking association. LBBW declined to comment.

Last week, European plans to require banks to separate high-risk financial activities such as investment banking from their retail banks received a boost when the governments of Germany and France backed proposals by a group of experts led by Finland's central-bank president, Erkki Liikanen.

The ideas of the so-called Liikanen group are aimed at preventing the spread of financial trouble from toxic parts of a bank's balance sheet into healthy parts of the business, which could destabilize banks and force governments to bail them out in order shore up the broader financial system.

France is also in the midst of passing a similar law, which would force banks to hive off only a small share of their investment-banking activities into separate entities, the governor of the Bank of France said at a parliamentary meeting Wednesday.

"On average, the assets that would be confined if the law was voted today would represent on average 3%" of banks' revenues from market activities, Christian Noyer said. He said he believes the French parliament is right to avoid forcing French banks to give up too much of their activities, particularly market-making activities for companies and France's government debt.

The European Union will press ahead with proposals in September to ringfence the region's retail banks from risky trading activities, a spokesperson for the European commissioner for internal markets, Michel Barnier, said Wednesday.

"Commissioner Barnier is firmly committed to present legislation based on the Liikanen report�.in September of this year," the spokesperson said. "In this work, Commissioner Barnier will act to implement a key principle: When banking activities continue to raise a systemic risk�in spite of all EU rules that we are putting in place�such activities would have to be structurally separated from the rest of the banking activities."

The German draft bill will be presented to the cabinet next week and then will need to be approved by the lower house of parliament.

If approved, it would go into force in January 2014 and would require banks to come up with a plan for hiving off risky activities by July 2014. All of the risky businesses would need to be fully isolated by July 2015.

The plan is a signature banking reform by Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats, who are campaigning to stay in power in Germany's elections in September. The main opposition Social Democrats presented their own plan last year, calling for German banks to separate their investment-banking and retail-banking businesses.

German opposition parties criticized the draft law on Wednesday, saying it wouldn't make the banking industry significantly safer.

"This bill is totally inadequate," Gerhard Schick, a Green party spokesman on finance issues, said in a statement. He said it wasn't even as effective as the Liikanen proposals, which Mr. Schick called the "absolute minimum" overhaul that is needed.

Deutsche Bank's co-chief executives Anshu Jain and J�rgen Fitschen have repeatedly warned against penalizing or splitting universal banks that combine securities trading and deposit taking, which they argue are more stable in a crisis because they have more diversified sources of earnings. Banks' critics, including some German politicians, respond that the universal-banking model helps make the banks too big and interconnected to fail.

—Harriet Torry, William Horobin and Laurence Norman contributed to this article.

Write to Laura Stevens at laura.stevens@wsj.com

JDS Uniphase Rises 7% on FYQ2 Beat, In-Line Q3 Rev View

Shares of fiber optics component vendor JDS Uniphase (JDSU) are up 85 cents, or almost 7%, at $13.25 in late trading after the company this afternoon reported fiscal Q2 revenue and earnings per share that topped consensus expectations and projected revenue this quarter in line with consensus.

Revenue in the three months ended in December rose 4.9%, year over year, to $429.4 million, yielding EPS of 18 cents.

Analysts on average had been modeling $422.7 million and 14 cents.

Gross porfit margin, on a non-GAAP basis, rose from 47.1% a year earlier, and 45.8% in the prior quarter, to 48%. Operating margin rose from 9.8% a year earlier and 9.2% in the prior quarter to 11.3%.

For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $405 million to $425 million, roughly in line with, to slightly above, the consensus of $413 million.

JDS management will host a conference call with analysts at 5 pm, Eastern time, and you can catch the webcast of the call here.

Shares of competitor Finisar (FNSR) are up 61 cents, or 4.3%, at $14.78.

GM to Invest $200 Million in Michigan Powertrain Center

PONTIAC, Mich. (AP) -- General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) will add a wing to its engine and transmission development headquarters in Pontiac, Mich., with hopes of getting new technology into cars and trucks much faster.

The Detroit automaker on Wednesday announced that it would spend $200 million to add 138,000 square feet of new labs in Pontiac, allowing it to consolidate work from four other facilities.

The move won't create any new jobs, but it will bring 400 more positions to the Pontiac headquarters, raising its total employment to 3,900 from 3,500. The positions will be moved from GM facilities in Castleton, Ind., Wixom, Mich., Torrance, Calif., and Warren, Mich. The 400 jobs also include the previously announced move of GM's fuel cell development center from Honeoye Falls, N.Y., to Pontiac.

Work on the new wing is expected to start in the spring and be finished during the second half of 2014. It's part of GM's plan to invest $1.5 billion in its North American facilities this year.

The company said in a statement Wednesday that the new wing will help speed development of new engines and transmissions. CEO Dan Akerson has said the company is behind competitors on powertrain technology. The company has six-speed automatic transmissions while competitors have up to 10 speeds. More speeds generally make cars and trucks more efficient and perform better.

Sam Winegarden, GM's vice president of global engine engineering, said the move isn't about creating new jobs, it's about speeding new products to market. "This helps with the ability to do things both faster and more efficiently," he said.

For example, engineers working on a transmission or engine can simply walk down a hallway to get a question answered as opposed to calling someone in a different location and time zone, Winegarden said.

Speedier development is important because most of GM's engines and transmissions will have to be new within the next few years due to stricter government carbon dioxide pollution and fuel economy regulations, Winegarden said.

Shares of General Motors Co. slipped 46 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $27.99 in afternoon trading. They have traded in a 52-week range of $18.72 to $30.68.

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How eBay Empowers Entrepreneurs

In the following video, Motley Fool analyst Brendan Byrnes sits down with Maynard Webb, author of Rebooting Work: Transform How You Work in the Age of Entrepreneurship.

Finding innovative companies to invest in for the new age of entrepreneurship can be as easy as investing in your own backyard. Our free report, "3 American Companies Set to Dominate the World," shows you how. Click here to get your free copy before it's gone.

Brendan Byrnes: Yeah, what are some companies, in particular, that you see that are implementing this well and what can we learn from them?

Maynard Webb: Well, obviously I'm the Chair of LiveOps, and we have the world's largest distributed workforce that works from home and 20,000 people in the call center so I think we do that well. I believe eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY  ) has done a good job of enabling entrepreneurs to create businesses out of their house.

I also think a lot of innovative companies are letting people work from home more than ever before and think about the fact that new people don't have to come to your location, they can actually stay where their families are and still do good work.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Political Bickering Sends Stocks Lower

Stocks are lower today after government estimates of GDP growth came in lower than expected for the final three months of the 2012. With roughly an hour left in the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is down by 26 points, or 0.19%.

GDP unexpectedly shrinks in fourth quarter
If you had any doubts about the damage politicians in Washington can do to the economy, then the fourth-quarter GDP figures released by the Department of Commerce this morning should clear those up. For the three months ended Dec. 31, the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% as federal lawmakers exploited the so-called "fiscal cliff" for political gain.

As The Wall Street Journal characterized it, the domestic economy "screeched to a halt" at the end of last year after growing by 3.1% in the third quarter. While prior forecasts had ranged from 0.3% to 2.1% for the final months of 2012, the consensus forecast settled around 1% among economists interviewed by both Bloomberg News and the Journal. Suffice it to say that few, if any, foresaw a contraction.

Digging a bit deeper into the numbers reveals a number of notable nuances. In the first case, the lion's share of the decline came from reductions in government spending, particularly defense spending. After expanding at a rate of 12.9% in the third quarter, defense spending fell a staggering 22.2% on an annualized basis as the military braced itself for the automatic spending cuts that had been set to take effect at the beginning of January but were pushed back to the end of March. Once all other sources are included, federal government spending dropped in aggregate by 15%.

Alternatively, the building momentum in the housing sector provided a bigger-than-usual boost, with seasonally adjusted residential fixed investment up by 15.3%. Further, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% from October through December, compared with a 1.6% in the preceding three-month time period.

The big question now is: What does this mean for 2013? Needless to say, the contraction in output -- the first since the financial crisis receded -- is not a good omen and potentially takes some of the steam out of the still-fragile recovery.

This was on display yesterday when a closely watched measure of consumer confidence dropped precipitously. The measure, reported by the Conference Board in an index, fell from 66.7 in December to 58.6 this month, effectively erasing all of 2012's gains. To point out the obvious, an analyst quoted by the Journal noted, "The economy has less momentum going into 2013 than initially thought, making it vulnerable to external shocks."

Individual stocks
In terms of individual stocks, shares of Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) are the best-performing component on the Dow today. Despite mounting problems with its newest aircraft, the 787 Dreamliner, which remains grounded by regulators around the world, the aerospace company reported (link opens PDF) fourth-quarter revenue that was in line with the consensus forecast and earnings which came in unexpectedly higher. According to the company's chairman and chief executive officer Jim McNerney:

Our first order of business for 2013 is to resolve the battery issue on the 787 and return the airplanes safely to service with our customers. At the same time, we remain focused on our ongoing priorities of profitable ramp up in commercial airplane production, successful execution of our development programs, and continued growth in core, adjacent and international defense and space markets.

Alternatively, shares of smartphone pioneer Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM  ) are sharply lower today following the unveiling of the company's newest smartphone. Known as the Z10, the phone departs from RIM's signature keyboard-sporting designs in an attempt to compete with Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) iPhone. At present, RIM's shares are down more than 8%, giving back some of the impressive gains that they have recorded since the beginning of the year.

Speaking of Apple, while there remain many questions about whether RIM can even survive, the latest BlackBerry is likely an unwelcome surprise for the Cupertino-based technology giant, which has been gradually losing market share to rivals ever since it first introduced the iPhone. On the heels of this trend, shares of Apple have fallen by more than 30% since peaking in September of last year. And as my colleague Eric Bleeker recently pointed out, Apple has now even ceded its position as the largest company by market cap back to ExxonMobil.

Want to learn more about Apple?
There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on reasons both to buy and to sell Apple, as well as what opportunities are left for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thoughts on Apple, simply click here now.

Facebook results set for review after hours

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) � Facebook Inc.�s stock went on a wild ride late Wednesday, seeing sharp losses and slight gains following better-than-expected quarterly results from the social-networking company.

Shares of Facebook FB tumbled by as much as 10% after the release of the company�s fourth-quarter results. They managed to erase the losses to notch modest advances, only to return to the red where they traded down 4.1% at $29.96.

Some investors apparently had anticipated a �blowout� quarterly report, one analyst said. See: Facebook�s results beat Street, but shares slip.

Investors had been drawn in ahead of the results, leaving the shares with a year-to-date gain of 17.4% and an advance of 35% since Facebook�s last financial report was released in October.

Click to Play Facebook earnings top estimates

Stocks pull back after the Federal Reserve kept its bond-buying program steady, but offered a mixed review of the economy. Meanwhile, Facebook reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat forecasts. (Photo: Getty Images)

Late Wednesday, Facebook said adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were 17 cents a share, better than the 15 cents a share expected among analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue rose to $1.59 billion from $1.13 billion a year ago, higher than the consensus estimate of $1.51 billion for the most recent period.

The results pointed to traction in the company�s mobile-advertising business. See MarketWatch�s live coverage of Facebook�s earnings.

Meanwhile, Qualcomm Inc. QCOM �shares stayed higher in late trading, up by 6.3% at $67.56 after the company�s quarterly forecast came in above expectations. The wireless chip maker expects fiscal second-quarter revenue of $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion and earnings of $1.10 to $1.18 a share. Analysts had pegged earnings at $1.10 a share on revenue of $5.9 billion.

Sales at Qualcomm during the fiscal first quarter rose 29% to $6.02 billion. Net earnings jumped 32% to $2.2 billion and earnings were $1.26 per share. Wall Street anticipated earnings of $1.13 a share on revenue of $5.9 billion.

Shares of JDS Uniphase Corp. JDSU �gained 14% to $14.17 after the maker of broadband products swung to a fiscal second-quarter profit of $4.1 million, or 2 cents a share. Adjusted earnings of 18 cents a share were above the 14 cents a share expected by Wall Street analysts. See: JDSU swings to profit on communications revenue.

Better-than-expected results at Align Technology Inc. ALGN �helped shares of the Invisalign braces maker rise 10% to $32.25. Read more about Align Tech's quarterly report.

Best of MarketWatch Reuters Here's the one other story that� you can't afford to miss today /conga/story_of_the_day.html247571

Ahead of late trading, U.S. stocks backed away from five-year highs after the Federal Reserve said U.S. �economic activity had paused in recent months� and maintained its monetary policy. Read about Wednesday's action in U.S. stocks.

The S&P 500 Index SPX fell 0.4% at 1,501.96 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lost 44 points at 13,910.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP shed 0.4% at 3,142.31.

UK Considers Property Stamp Duty Increase

The United Kingdom (UK) is considering raising the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) on properties priced below £250,000 from 1% to 3%, which has many citizens and experts petitioning the government to rethink the plan. The current SDLT has remained unchanged for 15 years and it’s argued that any increase will undermine the chance for a true real estate market recovery. Analysts point to the 7% SDLT charged on properties priced over £2 million and how the increase made last year drove down sales in that price bracket. For more on this continue reading the following article from Property Wire.

Around 80,000 people in England and Wales, 10% of the market, could find themselves paying three times more stamp duty this year as the average property price looks set to breach the £250,000 mark, it is claimed.

For these buyers, Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) will jump up from 1% to 3%, an increase from £2,500 to £7,500 and it has resulted in calls for the government to urgently re-evaluate the 1% stamp duty ceiling which has remained unchanged for over 15 years whilst the average price of a house has increased three fold from £79,242 to £249,958.

When first introduced in 1984 an average priced property, which was then £29,106, incurred no SDLT and properties over £30,000 were subject to a 1% charge. In 1997, stepped bands were introduced and, despite property prices having increased, the point at which the tax jumps from 1% to 3% has remained at £250,000 ever since.

HM Land Registry shows that, despite a lacklustre housing market, 2012 saw the average property price in the UK rise 0.75% to £249,958. A similar slight increase would bring the average property price above the £250,000 threshold.

‘Should the band not be reassessed, there are two possible consequences. A bunching will occur at £250,000 which will prohibit the fragile recovery of the market, depressing house prices with the frightening prospect for negative equity and even repossessions. Home owners might also choose not to trade up,’ said Naomi Heaton, chief executive officer of London Central Portfolio.

She pointed out that it is reported that the government base their analysis on data from the Halifax and Nationwide, who together only represent a third of the mortgage market. ‘These are mainstream high street lenders whose analysis puts average prices well below the actual averages demonstrated by HM Land Registry. As such, the Chancellor might be completely unaware of the Stamp Duty knife edge which average prices are teetering on,’ she explained.

In the run up to the March Budget stamp duty will be high on the agenda. Rumours are circulating though that, rather than re-evaluating the £250,000 threshold, Chancellor George Osborne might increase stamp duty by 1% across the higher bands as an additional revenue raiser and populist pleaser.

In last year’s Budget a new band was introduced at 7% for properties over £2 million and this has resulted in the over £2 million sector seeing sales fall. The preceding year also saw stamp duty increase by 1% for properties over £1 million to 5%. Some think it could be easily increased to 6% and at the same time target properties over £500,000 raising the 4% band to 5%.

 

Last year, the SDLT rise in the £2 million plus sector resulted in a 30% collapse in transactions. London Central Portfolio calculates that a similar fall in transactions of properties valued between £500,000 and £2 million on the back of a 1% increase in Stamp Duty, would result in a net loss of £202 million in tax receipts over one year for an already beleaguered UK economy.

Such a move would be felt most in London where 45% of the transactions over £500,000 occur. Property owners in prime London central locations already pay their fair share, according to Heaton. ‘They contribute 27 times more Stamp Duty to the Exchequer on each transaction, paying on average £67,505 compared with £2,500 in the rest of the country,’ she said.

‘The Chancellor must move quickly to reassess the UK’s Stamp Duty situation. A recovery in the domestic property market will only be good news if the 1% stamp duty ceiling is also raised. For any buyer, finding an additional £5,000 is a big ask, especially in the current climate, and for first time buyers, it could be the difference between renting and owning,’ she explained.

‘The government should not continue edging up stamp duty percentages, as they have over the last 16 years, without taking into account rising property prices, inflation or the impact on transactions, which have fallen by 33% since 1997. The stamp duty regime needs to be carefully scrutinised in the context of accurate market data to avoid another snap eve of the Budget decision leaving the British tax payer with even greater financial burdens and a languishing property market,’ she added.

Financial stocks drop after economic data

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) � Financial stocks dropped on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. economy contracted in the fourth quarter.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund XLF , which tracks financial stocks in the S&P 500 SPX , dropped 0.3% in afternoon trade.

Click to Play Dow on the cusp of 14,000

MarketWatch's Polya Lesova joins the News Hub to discuss the strength of the markets as the Dow Jones Industrial Average nears 14,000. GDP numbers for the fourth quarter are due and January's ADP came in high.

Before the market opened, the Commerce Department estimated that U.S. gross domestic product fell at a 0.1% annual rate, while economists had expected a 1% rise in GDP. Read: Economy shrinks in fourth quarter.

Separate data showed that private-sector payrolls rose by 192,000 in January, which was better than analysts expected. Read: ADP shows improving labor market in January.

In Washington, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concluded its first meeting of the year on Wednesday, saying it will continue its bond-buying program.

The committee said in a statement that growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline. Read: Fed holds easing stance, says growth has �paused�.

In the financial sector, shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS , , Morgan Stanley MS �and J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM �all edged higher on the news, while Bank of America Corp. BAC �and Citigroup Inc. C �shares fell.

Piper Jaffray Cos. PJC �shares gained 1% after the investment bank said it swung to a fourth-quarter profit. Read: Piper Jaffray swings to fourth-quarter profit.

Net revenue jumped 51% to $140.9 million. Piper Jaffray provides investment banking, institutional brokerage, asset management and other financial services to businesses and institutional investors.

Build Your Wealth With Family Firms

LONDON -- It's surprising to think there are family owned or family controlled firms in the FTSE 100. But there are some, such as Associated British Foods (LSE: ABF  ) , Schroders (LSE: SDR  ) , and Reckitt Benckiser (LSE: RB  ) .

Performance
It's often said that family ownership helps to underpin long-term consistent performance. Does this stack up in the FTSE 100?

Well, just look at these share price performance figures over one, five, and 10 years:

1 Year

5 Years

10 Years

FTSE 100

9.6%

7.1%

42.6%

ABF

45.6%

103.3%

175.3%

Schroders

26%

72.2%

219.9%

Reckitt Benckiser

23.4%

61.4%

171.3%

Source: Google Finance. Prices as of Jan. 25.

An investment in any of these firms over the last one, five, or 10 years would have blown an FTSE tracker out of the window. In each case, the return over 10 years is at least four times what the index delivered.

I haven't taken account of dividends in this comparison. Looking at the total return would change the numbers somewhat, but the three firms are all good dividend payers, so the conclusions would be broadly the same. I suspect that the three firms would show even better outperformance.

Family fortunes
What's so special about family firms? There is a wealth (an appropriate collective noun here) of academic research on the subject, and the consensus is that family firms perform better in the long run because they focus more on long-term objectives.

Indeed, some studies have suggested that family firms underperform in good times, precisely because they don't sacrifice long-term resilience in favor of short-term profit. So you're less likely to see family firms loading up on debt in boom years, for example. In fact, they tend to be more lowly geared throughout the cycle, emphasizing safety and balance-sheet strength over quick profits. The aim is to get rich slowly, not quickly.

Another common feature is that family firms are more careful with their money. They keep their costs down and are much more selective when it comes to capital expenditure. So it's no surprise that family firms indulge much less in buying companies, especially avoiding large acquisitions. Mergers and acquisitions are renowned for destroying shareholder value while boosting the stature and earnings of CEOs.

Finally, family firms tend to retain employees longer, building loyalty and a strong corporate culture.

ABF
ABF's ownership of Primark is a case in point. The now-incongruously named food group has seen its once-peripheral budget retail chain grow like a cuckoo in the nest to become one of its biggest profit generators.

There's no synergy between the retail stores and ABF's food businesses, and conglomerates are out of fashion. There would likely be a quick profit from a demerger. It's a fair bet that the Weston family's control has acted as a brake on that. It owns 55% of the company, the CEO is a family member, and the family appoints one director to the board.

Schroders
Fund manager Schroders illustrates the parsimonious approach to acquisitions. "We've made five small bolt-on acquisitions [since 2006] without huge execution risk, which is what we like," CEO Michael Dobson told the Financial Times last year. That included a shrewd 25% purchase of an Indian fund manager -- but with net 3 billion pounds of cash on the balance sheet, plenty of CEOs would be agitating for a big deal.

The Schroder family controls 44% of the shares, and octogenarian Bruno Schroder, the great-great-grandson of the founder, sits on the board.

Reckitt Benckiser
Reckitt Benckiser is perhaps not generally thought of as a family firm. But the Benckiser family owned about 15% of the shares until last year, when it sold down to 10%. It is entitled to nominate a director so long as the holding stays at that level. The current incumbent is deputy chairman Peter Harf, whose day job is running the family investment firm that also owns cosmetic giant Coty.

The company demonstrates the longevity angle to family firms. Current CEO Rakesh Kapoor has worked for the firm and its predecessors since 1987. He took over in 2011 from Bart Becht, who had been CEO since Benckiser merged with Reckitt and Coleman.

Investing in family firms is just one way of building your wealth. There are lots more tips in this free report from The Motley Fool: "Ten Steps To Making a Million in the Market." With equity markets forging ahead this year, there's no time like the present to look at where to invest. You can download the report now by clicking here.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Consumer Confidence Falls 12.1% for January

The Consumer Confidence Index continues its downward trend, dropping 12.1% for January, according to a Conference Board report released today. Analysts had expected a slight 2.4%�slump, but were left surprised by consumer's assessment of business and labor market conditions. The index dipped to 58.6 in January, from 66.7 in December.

"Consumer Confidence posted another sharp decline in January, erasing all of the gains made through 2012," said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco in a statement today. "Consumers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook and, in particular, their financial situation. The increase in the payroll tax has undoubtedly dampened consumers' spirits and it may take a while for confidence to rebound and consumers to recover from their initial paycheck shock."

Drawn from a random sample, only 16.7% of consumers believe business conditions are "good," compared to 17.2% in December. Likewise, opinions of "bad" business conditions bumped up from 26.3% to 27.4% of those surveyed.

Appraisals of the job market also grew increasingly pessimistic. The percentage of consumers believing jobs are "hard to get" bumped up 1.6 percentage points to 37.7%.

Looking ahead, opinions of future business conditions show some signs of hope. Although fewer consumers believe business conditions will improve over the next six months, fewer consumers also predicted that business conditions will continue to worsen.

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Steel Dynamics Beats Analyst Estimates on EPS

Steel Dynamics (Nasdaq: STLD  ) reported earnings on Jan. 28. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Steel Dynamics met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank and GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Margins grew across the board.

Revenue details
Steel Dynamics notched revenue of $1.71 billion. The 14 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected to see revenue of $1.69 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 8.3% lower than the prior-year quarter's $1.86 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.19. The 15 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.15 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.27 for Q4 were 93% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.14 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 10.6%, 200 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 5.6%, 120 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 3.6%, 200 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $1.91 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.27.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $7.63 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.23.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 929 members out of 967 rating the stock outperform, and 38 members rating it underperform. Among 207 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 198 give Steel Dynamics a green thumbs-up, and nine give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Steel Dynamics is outperform, with an average price target of $15.44.

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Judge OKs $4 Billion BP Oil Spill Criminal Settlement

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- A federal judge has approved an agreement for BP (NYSE: BP  ) to plead guilty to manslaughter and other charges and pay a record $4 billion in criminal penalties for the company's role in the massive 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

BP agreed in November to plead guilty to charges involving the deaths of 11 workers aboard the drilling rig that exploded and for lying to Congress.

Before ruling on Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Sarah Vance heard testimony from relatives of workers who died when BP's blown-out Macondo well triggered an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon rig in April 2010.

More than 200 million gallons of oil spewed from the well about 50 miles southeast of the Louisiana coast before it was capped three months later.

New Oriental Education Misses Q2 Estimates

New Oriental Education & Technology (NYSE: EDU  ) posted Q2 results that disappointed the market. The China-based company posted a loss of just under $9 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, compared with a profit of $7.5 million the same quarter the year before. Analysts had forecast negative EPS of around $0.04 for the latest quarter. Net revenues advanced strongly, by 30% to $166 million, but the market expected a slightly higher figure.

Meanwhile, New Oriental Education reported that total student enrollments grew by 7% year over year to roughly 505,000. The number of schools and learning centers also advanced, to 744 from Q2 2012's 726.

The company also provided top line guidance for its current quarter. It anticipates taking in total net revenues of $212 million to $221 million. It did not provide an an estimate for net profit.

Report: YouTube will start charging for premium content - 11:50 AM

(gigaom.com) -- YouTube plans to launch paid subscriptions as early as this spring, according to unidentified sources cited in AdAge. The sources say that YouTube is asking media companies that have already gained large a YouTube following — like Machinima, Maker Studios and Fullscreen — to submit ideas for paid channels that would cost “somewhere between $1 and $5 a month.” A Google spokesperson confirmed to AdAge that YouTube is “looking at” subscriptions.

YouTube would initially launch around 25 paid channels, according to the report, and “is also considering charging for content libraries and access to live events, a la pay-per-view, as well as self-help or financial advice shows.” It’s unclear if the channels would cost $1 to $5 apiece or would be lumped together as an inexpensive bundle.

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YouTube’s paid offerings might help the site compete against streaming services like Netflix, Hulu Plus and Amazon Instant Video, all of which are developing their own original content. But the subscriptions would also give content creators with large audiences a chance to pull in revenue beyond ads. And the opportunity to charge might provide brands that were previously wary to put video up on YouTube with the incentive to do so.

Will viewers pay? They might if transactions are easy — Google could integrate Google Payments, for instance — and might also be interested in perks like downloads for offline viewing, or bundles of videos that previously had to be tracked down individually.

Update: A YouTube spokesperson sent us the following statement about the site’s plans:

“We have long maintained that different content requires different types of payment models. The important thing is that, regardless of the model, our creators succeed on the platform. There are a lot of our content creators that think they would benefit from subscriptions, so weâ�?�?re looking at that.”

 

Why the Dow Took a Step Back Today

Perhaps it was time to take a step back. With little impactful economic news hitting the wires today, markets cooled from a red-hot start to the year on Monday. If anything, a slight slowdown in December housing numbers may have even restored a hint of bearishness to Wall Street. That said, by day's end the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) had fallen just 14 points, or 0.10%, to 13,881.

While the real estate sector dealt with less than spectacular data, manufacturing was a different story. Industrial mainstays got a boost today as December durable goods orders rose 4.6%. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) investors happily bid the stock 2% higher, as the positive indicator combined with better-than-expected earnings results to paint a pleasant picture of what's to come. Caterpillar was the Dow's biggest gainer on Monday.

Alternatively, Alcoa (NYSE: AA  ) was the worst performer in the blue-chip index, sliding 1.4% as materials stocks declined. W?ith shares having already advanced nearly 6% in 2013, investors worry that the market may be getting ahead of itself from a valuation perspective. Nothing overwhelmingly negative was revealed about the aluminum business in particular today; Alcoa was just one of 18 blue chips to sell off to start the week.�

Shares of 3-D printing pioneer 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD  ) suffered a precipitous drop Monday, falling 13.9%. Here too, reasons for the fall were not outwardly evident, but the drop was likely due to growing concerns that investors have placed too much of a premium on the high-growth 3-D printing industry. Shares in competing company Stratasys�also tumbled about 10% today.

Another high-growth business, beverage newcomer SodaStream (NASDAQ: SODA  ) fell 4.3% today. The stock, trading near 52-week highs after a run-up of about 40% in the past few months, worries some that there isn't much room left for further gains. Still, with no debt and a promising business model, SodaStream might not be in as dire straits as some on Wall Street believe.

It's no huge surprise Caterpillar rose today. The company is the market share leader in an industry in which size matters, and its quality products, extensive service network, and unparalleled brand strength combine to give it solid competitive advantages. Read all about Caterpillar's strengths and weaknesses in our brand new report. Just click here to access it now.

Cognex: Piper Downgrades

Cognex (CGNX) shares are trading lower this morning after Piper Jaffray analyst Auguste Richard cut his rating on the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

“Cognex’s shares have had a strong run on the backs of a number of recent catalysts,” Richard writes in a research note. “The company reported a strong Q2, positively pre-announced Q3 last week, and held an upbeat analyst meeting highlighting its new product initiatives last week. While there is likely an upward bias to the company’s revenue estimates, there is also likely an upward bias to the company’s SG&A spending as it expands into a broad array of markets and geographies. As a result, we do not see significant
upside to our estimates … We are moving to the sidelines based on valuation.”

CGNX is down 83 cents, or 3.1%, to $26.39.

Better Comeback Play: RIM or Nokia?

With this Wednesday's release of the BlackBerry 10, the time has come to decide which is the better comeback play between�Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM  ) and Nokia� (NYSE: NOK  ) . Where Nokia has been quietly -- maybe too quietly -- building momentum, RIM is going all in with the new release. RIM's stock is up nearly 130% in the last six months, although shedding some heading into Wednesday, and while the immediate reaction may not be the correct one, the BB10 is the ballgame. Each of these companies was once a juggernaut in its own right -- RIM in smartphones and Nokia in the entire mobile device spectrum.

The story is shaping up to be a true "tortoise or the hare" race for third place in the smartphone kingdom, but it is unclear if that assertion proves true or if RIM can rocket ahead and survive. Beyond the drama being staged for Wednesday is the question of which stock makes sound investment sense. Even if RIM has a fighting chance in this race, there is a real argument that it has run too far too fast and is ready for a fall. Let's consider.

Nokia is spreading its wings
Not long ago, Nokia announced that it had sold 4.4 million Lumia smartphones in the quarter, a solid increase from the 2.9 million it sold in the third quarter. The smartphones that run on the Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) Windows platform are a critical product line for both companies. Nokia abandoned its own Symbian OS in favor of the partnership with Microsoft. A solid Windows-based product is a critical part of Microsoft's push back into the limelight.

The sales figures build on the momentum the Lumia line received when China's largest wireless provider adopted the Lumia 920t as one of its flagship offerings. Based on both the signing of this deal and the solid operating results, Nokia has returned to profitability and believes it will stay there for each quarter of 2013 and beyond. It is also seeing the benefits of various cost-cutting measures it has put into place. Overall, the company is back on solid footing and on a trajectory to perform into the future.

RIM's shooting star
If you can forgive the myriad mixed metaphors, the takeaway is that the release of the BB10 is the single most important event for RIM in the foreseeable future. IDC analyst Ramon Llamas said, "This is RIM betting the farm -- it's that big, it's that important." Llamas also noted that CEO Thorsten Hein, who will be introducing the product personally, is essentially betting his entire career on the success of the new device.

The company is coming off of six consecutive quarters of declining sales and falling market share. The positive price action in the stock is largely speculative and appears to be driven by institutional buying. The real concern for the rest of us is that if this turns into another case of "buy the rumor, sell the news," regardless of the reception the BB10 receives, the stock could get hammered. Preparation for such an eventuality may explain the stock's weakness during Monday morning's trading, just ahead of the release.

On the other hand, there are a great many business professionals who are only one or two smartphones away from their last BlackBerry. The challenge that RIM faces is to get those users who once faithfully relied on their BB to even consider a new one when it becomes time to upgrade again. This need is likely central to the company's decision to make a major push into the ad market, including the announcement that it will be running ads during the next Super Bowl.

And the winner is...
There is a strong argument that everyone from consumers to the wireless carriers would like to see a legitimate third option. The combination of high subsidies and sweeping influence would largely be alleviated by the entrance of a legitimate third choice �that the carriers could push in stores. Consumers would benefit because in a duopoly, the players are more interested in beating each other than serving their customers.

While I, as a former BB fan, would love to see the BB10 survive, Nokia feels better positioned at this point on multiple fronts. The Microsoft partnership gives the company a huge amount of support, not just financially but in terms of exposure. The third option must be a legitimate ecosystem provider and the breadth of influence that Microsoft carries is hard to rival, particularly by the beleaguered likes of RIM.

From an investment perspective, there is a serious risk that after RIM's run, the stock may get hammered as shareholders take profit to reduce risk. Nokia has not run as far, but the slow and steady approach of the company and the stock is more appealing for my investment capital. RIM may become interesting again in the future, but as things stand, Nokia is the better rebound play right now.�

Nokia's been struggling in a world of Apple and Android smartphone dominance. However, the company has banked its future on its next generation of Windows smartphones. Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers has created a new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia to help investors decide if the company is a buy or sell. To get started, simply click here now.

Top Management Changes Continue at JPMorgan

Last week, my editor and I had a discussion over use of the phrase "the house that Dimon built" when referring to JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) . I had been using it as a way to inject some fun into stories that can otherwise be a bit dry, and to avoid writing the company's name over and over. His objection was that JPMorgan Chase is more accurately "the house that James Pierpoint Morgan built."

I dejectedly agreed to stop using my fun phrase. But with yesterday's news that JPMorgan's upper management is seeing yet another personnel change -- coming on top of nearly a year of drastic management changes in the wake of the London Whale trading debacle -- it will soon be hard to argue that JPMorgan Chase is anything but�the house that Dimon built. This is a good thing.

Talk about bad timing
The New York Times is reporting that John Hogan, JPMorgan's chief risk officer, will be taking a "sabbatical." He took over the position just months before the London Whale trading incident came to light: a massive derivatives bet gone wrong that has so far cost the bank more than $6 billion to wind up.

An internal memo quotes Hogan as saying: "Later this month I plan to begin a sabbatical for a few months, returning to the firm in early summer in my current role as chief risk officer." Hogan's father passed away last fall, and after the year he had as chief risk officer -- trying to contain the damage caused by the London Whale -- if anyone at JPMorgan needs a sabbatical, it's him.

A rose by any other name...
Still, sometimes sabbaticals turn into reassignments, or "resignations," by which of course I mean "terminations in all but name." And another permanent shakeup at the top would certainly be in line with what's been going on at JPMorgan since the London Whale story broke.

Longtime Dimon lieutenant Ina Drew was the first major casualty of the botched trade. Drew had overseen the bank's chief investment office in London, where Bruno Iksil -- the London Whale himself -- worked. She left the bank in May, and was succeeded by Matthew Zames�, who then became co-chief operating officer in July, alongside Frank Bisignano.

Michael Cavanagh, another young up-and-comer like Zames, was also promoted to co-chief executive of JPMorgan's corporate and investment bank in July.�Zames and Cavanagh are among those seen as being groomed by Dimon for eventual ascension to CEO.

In November, it was announced that Marianne Lake, previously the bank's community- and business-banking CFO, would replace Doug Braunstein as uber-CFO. Braunstein was CFO when the London Whale scandal came to light, who infamously remarked he was "very comfortable" with said positions just weeks before all hell broke loose.

And just last week, it was announced that Cindy Armine -- a newcomer from Citigroup�-- would replace Martha Gallo as head of global compliance and regulatory management: this, right around the time the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency smacked JPMorgan with two cease-and-desist orders regarding the bank's money-laundering controls.�

Just what the doctor ordered
Whatever eventually becomes of the sabbaticaled Hogan, JPMorgan Chase is clearly Jamie Dimon's bank now. Anybody who's anybody in the top echelons of management are there because Dimon wants them to be. And not only are the most important current positions filled with Dimon's handpicked people, he's also handpicked several possibilities for the bank's most important future position: CEO.

Of course, Dimon himself is still CEO, even after the epic loss that cost so many below him their careers. Is this fair? Probably not. As captain, maybe Dimon should have gone down with his ship. Maybe he should have resigned. The board obviously didn't see it fit to fire him, either (though they did cut his 2012 pay by $10 million, no small punishment).

Fair or not, however, in the end, I think it's good Dimon is still with the bank.

It was his aversion to risk and naturally compulsive, controlling nature that kept JPMorgan from the worst excesses of the financial crisis, and brought it out of the crisis in far better shape than most. And while the London Whale trade did cost the bank more than $6 billion dollars, Dimon's famous "fortress balance sheet" was able to absorb it as easily as could have possibly been hoped for.

Consequently, the bank has, for the most part, been able to move on from the worst effects of the London Whale. From a numbers perspective, of natural importance to investors, JPMorgan is obviously doing well; its soaring fourth-quarter results are proof positive of that.

Maybe the London Whale was just what the doctor ordered. JPMorgan is almost unarguably a better, stronger bank than it was before May of last year: a tighter ship, with top managers that Dimon knows and trusts, and a culture that's probably even more risk-averse than ever before. Whatever you like to call JPMorgan Chase, in a post-crash world, that's the kind of thing both investors -- and the person on the street -- can rightly agree on and celebrate.�

While you're in the mood, take a minute and check out a new Motley Fool report on the JPMorgan Chase. Penned by the Fool's top JPMorgan Chase in-house expert, you'll learn where the key�opportunities�for the superbank lie, where its core�growth�will come from, and the potential�business risks. You'll also get an analysis of its�leadership team. For instant access click here now.

Are You Expecting This from Royal Dutch Shell?

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDSA  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Jan. 31. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Royal Dutch Shell's revenues will grow 4.4% and EPS will increase 39.1%.

The average estimate for revenue is $120.71 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $2.17.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Royal Dutch Shell logged revenue of $112.12 billion. GAAP reported sales were 9.2% lower than the prior-year quarter's $123.41 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $2.10. GAAP EPS of $1.14 for Q3 were 1.8% higher than the prior-year quarter's $1.12 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 16.4%, 140 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 8.7%, 30 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 6.4%, 70 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $467.39 billion. The average EPS estimate is $8.46.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 15 members out of 15 rating the stock outperform, and members rating it underperform. Among two CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), two give Royal Dutch Shell a green thumbs-up, and give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Royal Dutch Shell is outperform, with an average price target of $79.63.

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