Saturday, August 10, 2013

5 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now

The following video is from Thursday's Investor Beat,� in which host Chris Hill, and analysts Jason Moser and Isaac Pino dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

Shares of Microsoft rose nearly 3% on news that the tech giant is planning a major reorganization. Microsoft will be organized around key functions rather than specific products, and the goal is a better sharing of information, better devices, and better services. In our lead story on Investor Beat, Motley Fool analysts Jason Moser and Isaac Pino discuss how Microsoft seems to be modeling its changes on Ford Motor's most recent reorganization, and whether investors will benefit.

Also, our analysts discuss Yum! Brands' deepening troubles, Amazon's uptick riding a trend of rising e-commerce, Costco's 6% increase in same-store sales, and Wal-Mart abandoning its plans for three new stores in Washington, D.C. Those stories, plus two stocks our analysts are going to be keeping a close eye on in the week ahead.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now: StemCells Inc (STEM.W)

StemCells, Inc. (StemCells), incorporated in August 1988, is engaged in the research, development, and commercialization of stem cell therapeutics and related tools and technologies for academia and industry. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing stem and progenitor cells as the basis for therapeutics and therapies, and cells and related tools and technologies to enable stem cell-based research and drug discovery and development. The Company�� primary research and development efforts are focused on identifying and developing stem and progenitor cells as potential therapeutic agents. The Company has two therapeutic product development programs, including its CNS Program, which is developing applications for HuCNS-SC cells, its human neural stem cell product candidate, and its Liver Program, which is characterizing the Company�� human liver cells as a therapeutic product.

CNS Program

The Company in its CNS Program, is in clinical development with its HuCNS-SC cells for a range of disorders of the central nervous system. The CNS includes the brain, spinal cord and eye. In February 2012, the Company had completed a Phase I clinical trial in Pelizeaus-Merzbacher Disease (PMD), a fatal myelination disorder in the brain.

The Company�� CNS Program is focused on developing clinical applications, in which transplanting HuCNS-SC cells protect or restore organ function of the patient before such function is irreversibly damaged or lost due to disease progression. The Company�� initial target indications are PMD, and more generally, diseases in which deficient myelination plays a central role, such as cerebral palsy or multiple sclerosis; spinal cord injury, disorders in which retinal degeneration plays a central role, such as age-related macular degeneration or retinitis pigmentosa. The Company�� product candidate, HuCNS-SC cells, is a purified and expanded composition of normal hum an neural stem cells. Its HuCNS-SC cells can be directly tr! a! nsplanted.

Liver Program

Liver stem or progenitor cells offer an alternative treatment for liver diseases. A liver cellular therapy or cell-based therapeutic provide or support liver function in patients with liver disease. The Company held a portfolio of issued and allowed patents in the liver field, which cover the isolation and use of both hLEC cells and the isolated subset, as well as the composition of the cells themselves.

The Company�� range of cell culture products, which are sold under the SC Proven brand, includes iSTEM, GS1-R, GS2-M, RHB-A, RHB-Basal, NDiff N2, and NDiff N2B27. Its iSTEM is a serum-free, feeder-free medium that maintains mouse embryonic stem cells in their pluripotent ground state by using selective small molecule inhibitors to block the pathways, which induce differentiation. RHB-A is a defined, serum-free culture medium for the selective culture of human and mouse neural stem cells and their maintenanc e and expansion as adherent cell populations. RHB-Basal is a defined, serum-free basal medium. When supplemented with specific growth factors, this media is formulated for the propagation and differentiation of adherent neural stem cells. RHB-Basal can also be tailored to specific-cell type requirements by the addition of customer preferred supplements.

The Company�� NDiff N2 is a defined serum-free scell culture supplement for the derivation, maintenance, expansion and/or differentiation of human and mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells and tissue-derived neural stem cells supplement. Its NDiff N2-AF is a serum-free and animal component-free version of NDiff N2. Its NDiff N2B27 is a defined, serum-free medium for the differentiation of mouse embryonic stem cells to neural cell types. NDiff N27-AF is a serum-free and animal component-free version of NDiff N27. Its GS1-R is a serum-free media formulation shown to enable the derivation and long-term maintenance of tr ue, germline competent rat embryonic stem cells without! the ! ad! dition ! of cytokines or growth factors. Its GS2-M is a defined, serum- and feeder-free medium for the derivation and long-term maintenance of true, germline competent mouse iPS cells.

The Company also markets a number of antibody reagents for use in cell detection, isolation and characterization. These reagents are also under the SC Proven brand and it includes STEM24, STEM101, STEM121 and STEM123. Its STEM24 is a human antibody that recognizes human CD24, also known as heat stable antigen (HSA), a glycoprotein expressed on the surface of many human cell types, including immature human hematopoietic cells, peripheral blood lymphocytes, erythrocytes and many human carcinomas. Its CD24 is also a marker of human neural differentiation. Its STEM101 is a human-specific mouse antibody that recognizes the Ku80 protein found in human nuclei. Its STEM121 is a human-specific mouse antibody that recognizes a cytoplasmic protein of human cells. Its STEM123 is a human-specific mouse antibody that recognizes human glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP).

The Company�� Other products marketed under SC Proven include total cell genomic DNA (gDNA), RNA and protein lysate reagents purified from homogenous stem cell populations for intra-comparative studies, such as Epigenetic fingerprinting, Southern, Western and Northern blots, PCR, RT-PCR and microarrays. This range of purified stem cell line lysates includes mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells propagated in SC Proven 2i inhibitor-based GS2-M media and mouse ES cell-derived and fetal tissue-derived neural stem (NS) cells propagated in SC Proven RHB-A media.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Tangoe Inc (TNGO)

Tangoe, Inc. (Tangoe), incorporated on February 9, 2000, is a global provider of communications lifecycle management (CLM), software and services to a range of enterprises, including large and medium-sized businesses and other organizations. CLM encompasses the entire lifecycle of an enterprise's communications assets and services, including planning and sourcing, procurement and provisioning, inventory and usage management, mobile device management (MDM), invoice processing, expense allocation and accounting, and asset decommissioning and disposal. Its on-demand Communications Management Platform is a suite of software designed to manage and optimize the complex processes and expenses associated with this lifecycle for both fixed and mobile communications assets and services. On February 21, 2012, it acquired ttMobiles Limited (ttMobiles), On January 10, 2012, Tangoe acquired Anomalous Networks Inc. On December 19, 2011, it acquired ProfitLine, Inc. (ProfitLine).On March 16, 2011, the Company acquired the telecommunications expense management division of Telwares, Inc. and its subsidiary Vercuity Solutions, Inc. (Telwares). On January 25, 2011, it acquired HCL Expense Management Services Inc. (HCL). On August 8, 2012, the Company acquired the Telecommunications Expense Management Business of Symphony Teleca (TEM Business).

The Company�� solution is implemented worldwide, providing service coverage in over 180 countries and territories in over 125 currencies with support for approximately 1,700 different communications carriers and 1,900 different billing formats. Its user interface is translated into 16 different languages and its solution supports compliance with the requirements of 63 regulatory committees around the world. Its on-demand software organizes disparate billing, ordering, asset and usage data into a format, allowing its customers to access, query and analyze their communications expense and asset profile information. Improved control of the billing process helps enterpri! ses ensure they pay their bills on time, avoiding late payments and associated service interruptions. Its software also provides customers proactive and predictive mobile usage alerts allowing them to avoid mobile bill overages. Its solution allows its customers to manage the financial, legal and reputational risks associated with unauthorized or unintended use of their communications assets and services.

Communications Management Platform

The Company�� customers can engage the Company through its client service group to manage their communications assets and services using a combination of CMP and its client services. The services it offers include help desk, asset procurement and provisioning and carrier dispute resolution. Its Communications Data Management technology processes and normalizes service-provider billing and order-related information for its customers. CMP also integrates with its customers' critical third-party enterprise systems, including enterprise resource planning, accounts payable, general ledger and human resources systems, which enables automated, real-time access to and synchronization with employee, accounting, user access authentication and security policy information.

The Company sells CMP in three standard bundles: Asset Management, Expense Management and Usage Management. The Asset Management bundle of CMP provides asset procurement, provisioning, tracking and disposal capabilities for fixed and mobile communications assets and services. The Asset Management bundle tracks and audits all add, move, change or disconnect service transaction orders and manages all customer assets and services by location, business unit and employee. Its MDM software allows its customers to manage and maintain their mobile inventory with wireless, real-time monitoring and remote update functions. Key capabilities of the Asset Management bundle of CMP include catalog management, procure, provision, track, maintain and dispose.

Catalog Manage! ment incl! ude Customer-configurable catalog of over 51,500 services, devices, features and plans with dynamic access and presentation based on corporate policy and user profile. Procure include capture, validation, approval, submission and tracking of fixed and mobile service and equipment orders. Provision is engaged in establishment of mobile device enterprise connectivity with installation of corporate applications, usage and security policies utilizing wireless provisioning capabilities. Track includes tracking of fixed and mobile assets, including information regarding characteristics, configurations, ownership and operational and connectivity status. Maintain include centralized management of mobile devices enabled through on-device software providing security and usage policy enforcement as well as automated mobile policy and mobile application deployments and updates. Dispose include collection, data cleansing and disposal of mobile devices.

The Expense Management bundle of CMP provides automated processing and services to manage every aspect of the fixed and mobile communications billing function, from receipt to payment. Key capabilities of the Expense Management bundle of CMP include contract management, billing, audit, dispute, allocate, payment and optimize. The Usage Management bundle of CMP provides enterprises with visibility and control over how communications assets and services are being used in fixed and mobile environments through a combination of real-time and historical usage tracking as well as corporate communications and security policy enforcement. The Company�� capabilities of the Usage Management bundle of CMP include secure, policy management, monitor, real-time, compliance, performance and support. The Company offers Real-time Telecommunications Expense Management (rTEM) bundled or as a point solution. Its rTEM solution serves the enterprise, medium and small business and carrier deployment markets.

The Company�� rTEM solution provides businesses and ca! rriers of! all sizes the ability to monitor, report and analyze data, voice, short message service (SMS) and roaming consumption of their mobile devices in real-time. Its rTEM solution utilizes predictive algorithms designed to proactively identify and help prevent costly, unexpected overages from occurring. Its rTEM solution also provides device location monitoring services to help find lost or stolen devices, as well as device geo-fencing features to alert appropriate individuals that an asset is leaving or entering pre-defined geographic tracking areas, providing additional device security tracking. Its rTEM solution supports implementation on smartphones, tablets and machine-to-machine communication devices.

Strategic Consulting and Other Services

The Company offers a set of strategic consulting services that address all areas of CLM for fixed and mobile environments. These services can be contracted separately or in conjunction with CMP. Its strategic consulting services offerings include sourcing, strategic advisory service, bill auditing, inventory optimization, mobile optimization and policy administration. The Company assists its customers with reviewing and negotiating contracts with communications carriers. The Company provides its clients with peer comparison analysis and benchmarking. It works with its customers to identify billing errors and other issues related to usage and contract activity. The Company advises its customers on how to align their current asset and service inventories with their business objectives. The Company aids its customers in aligning their mobile policies, assets, contracts and requirements. It works with its customers to formulate policies concerning the appropriate use of communications assets and services. In addition, the Company helps its customers develop policies regarding risk mitigation, entitlements, cost management, liability models, cost allocation methodologies and positive behavioral management. The Company also offers standard imple! mentation! services, including data conversion, system configuration, process review and corporate system integration, to assist its customers in the setup and deployment of CMP.

The Company competes with Emptoris, Rivermine, MDSL, Symphony SMS, Vodafone, XIGO, AirWatch, BoxTone, Good Technology, MobileIron, Sybase, Zenprise, CSC, Orange, Ariba and PAETEC.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By James K. Glassman]

    52-Week High: $23.05

    52-Week Low: $11.99

    Annual Revenue: $140 million

    Projected 2013 Earnings Growth: 33.3% 

    Terry Tillman, who analyzes software stocks for the Raymond James investment firm, chose SuccessFactors for 2012. Now he's enthusiastic about Tangoe (symbol: TNGO), which makes software that helps manage the telecom services that large and midsize companies use. Revenues in the July–September quarter were up 39% from the same period in 2011. When you consider Tangoe's fast growth, its P/E of 20, based on 2013 earnings estimates, seems attractive. But I'm mainly drawn by the firm's similarity to SuccessFactors. Two in a row?

  • [By James K. Glassman]

     Terry Tillman, who analyzes software stocks for the Raymond James investment firm, chose SuccessFactors for 2012. Now he's enthusiastic about Tangoe (symbol: TNGO), which makes software that helps manage the telecom services that large and midsize companies use. Revenues in the July–September quarter were up 39% from the same period in 2011. When you consider Tangoe's fast growth, its P/E of 20, based on 2013 earnings estimates, seems attractive. But I'm mainly drawn by the firm's similarity to SuccessFactors. Two in a row?

Best High Tech Stocks To Buy For 2014: Marin Software Inc (MRIN.N)

Marin Software Incorporated, incorporated on March 16, 2006, provides cloud-based digital advertising management platform to advertisers and agencies. The Company�� Revenue Acquisition Management platform is a software-as-a-service (SaaS), analytics, workflow, and optimization solution for marketing professionals, enabling them to manage their digital advertising spend across search, display, social and mobile advertising channels. Its platform integrates with publishers, such as Baidu, Bing, Facebook, Google, Yahoo! and Yahoo! Japan, as well as Web analytics and ad-serving solutions, and key enterprise applications to enable marketers to measure the return on investment of their marketing programs.

The Company�� software platform serves as a system-of-record for advertising performance, revenue and conversion data and allows advertisers to correlate advertising spend to subsequent revenue outcomes or business events. It enables its customers to simulta neously run large-scale digital advertising campaigns across multiple publishers and channels, making it easy for marketers to create, publish, modify and optimize campaigns in real time.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Alcatel Lucent SA (ALU)

Alcatel Lucent, incorporated on June 18, 1898, is engaged in mobile, fixed, Internet Protocol (IP) and Optics technologies, applications and services. The Company is a partner of service providers, enterprises, industries and governments worldwide. Alcatel-Lucent includes Bell Labs centres of research in communications technology. Its operations are in more than 130 countries. The Company operates in three business segments: networks, applications, and services. On December 31, 2010, the Company completed the sale of its Vacuum pump solutions and instruments business to Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology AG. In September 2010, the Company acquired OpenPlug, a mobile software and applications development tools vendor. In June 29, 2010, the Company acquired ProgrammableWeb.

During 2010, the Company launched the Digital Media Store, a multicontent digital storefront that allows service providers to deliver content to end-users. Launched during 2010, Optism is a permission-based mobile marketing solution. During 2010, it launched Alcatel-Lucent�� Mobile Wallet Service (MWS), which allows the mobile operator to leverage its secure network to deliver a mobile payment capability through a mobile handset. During 2010, it also launched Alcatel-Lucent�� Application Exposure Suite to facilitate the development of new services by third-party application developers and content providers.

Networks Segment

The Networks segment supplies a portfolio of products and offerings used by fixed, wireless and converged service providers, as well as enterprises and governments for their business communications. The Company�� IP portfolio consists of four product families that deliver multiple services, including broadband triple play for residential customers; Ethernet and IP Virtual Private Network (VPN) services for Enterprise customers, and wireless second-generation (2G), third-generation (3G) and long term evolution (LTE) broadband services for mobile operators. The main product fami! lies include Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label Switching (IP/MPLS) service routers, Carrier Ethernet service switche, Multi-service wide-area-network (or MS WAN) switches and Content Delivery Network (CDN) appliances.

Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label Switching (IP/MPLS) service routers direct traffic within and between carriers��national and international networks to enable delivery of a range of IP-based services (including Internet access, Internet Protocol TV (IPTV), Voice over IP (VoIP), mobile phone and data, and managed Enterprise VPN services) on a single common network infrastructure with superior performance, with application intelligence, and with scalability (such as the simultaneous support of many diverse types of traffic and customers); Carrier Ethernet service switches. Carrier Ethernet service switches enable carriers to deliver residential, business and wireless services, and these products are mainly used in metropolitan area networks; Multi-service wide-area-network (MS WAN) switches. Multi-service wide-area-network (MS WAN) switches enable fixed line and wireless carriers to transition their existing networks to support newer technologies and services, and Content Delivery Network (CDN) appliances. Content Delivery Network (CDN) appliances distribute and cache (store) Web and video content.

The Company�� Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label Switching (IP/MPLS) and Carrier Ethernet products are designed to facilitate the development and availability of applications for the more participatory and interactive Web 2.0 business and consumer services. Its service routers are particularly well suited to deliver complex services to business, residential and mobile end-users. Its IP/MPLS service routers and Carrier Ethernet service switches are often used in conjunction with its DSL and Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) access products to deliver these newer triple-play services, or with its wireless access products to deliver LTE solutions, or w! ith its D! ense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) and optical switching products to deliver converged backbone transformation solutions for optimizing IP transport. Its Optics division designs and markets equipment for the long distance transportation of data over fiber optic connections via land (terrestrial) and under sea (submarine), as well as for short distances in metropolitan and regional areas.

The Company�� transport portfolio also includes the microwave wireless transmission equipment. Its terrestrial optical products offer a portfolio designed to seamlessly support service growth from the metro to the network core. With its products, carriers manage voice, data and video traffic patterns based on different applications or platforms and can introduce a range of managed data services, including multiple service quality capabilities, variable service rates and traffic congestion management. These products allow carriers to leverage their existing network infrastructure to offer these new services. Its submarine cable networks can connect continents (using optical amplification required over long distances), a mainland and an island, several islands together, or many points along a coast. It offers a portfolio of point-to-point microwave radio products meeting both European telecommunications standards (ETSI) and American standards-based (ANSI) requirements.

The Company�� Wireless All Around message developed during 2010 is a combination of wireless and IP products. The version of CDMA technology, known as 1X EV-DO Revision A, enables operators to offer two-way, real-time, high-speed data applications, such as VoIP, mobile video, push-to-talk and push-to-multimedia. The introduction of High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) and HSPA+ (the latest evolutions of W-CDMA technology) on networks and devices has led to increases in data speeds available to broadband devices. The Company develops mobile radio products for the second generation (2G) Global System for Mobile communications (GS! M) standa! rd, including General Packet Radio Service / Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (GPRS/EDGE) technology upgrades to that standard.

LTE offers service providers a compelling evolution path from all existing networks (GSM, W-CDMA, CDMA or WiMAX) by simplifying the radio access network and converging on a common IP base. RFS designs and sells cable, antenna, tower systems and their related electronic components, providing an end-to-end suite of radio frequency products. RFS serves original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, system integrators, network operators and installers in the broadcast, wireless communications, microwave and defense sectors. Specific applications for RFS products include cellular sites, in-tunnel and in-building radio coverage, microwave links, television and radio. The Company offers products that extend from legacy switching systems to IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) solutions for fixed, mobile, and converged operators. It has deployed its next-generation network (NGN) products in more than 170 fixed NGN networks, and it has provided the core network for more than 66 full IMS fixed and mobile networks. Its fixed access solutions allow carriers to offer triple-play services over a single access line. Its carrier customers are offering both residential and business customers multiple services, such as a number of broadcast channels, video on demand, high definition television (HDTV), VoIP, high speed Internet, and business access services.

Applications Segment

The Applications segment develops software-based applications and solutions that contribute to the personal communications for users. The Applications group is divided into two businesses: Enterprise Applications and Network Applications. The Enterprise Applications business includes its IP-based communications and collaboration applications for enterprises, including the Genesys contact center business. The Network Applications business develops applications used by service pr! oviders t! o deliver a range of services to their customers, and also includes Motive, which provides software for service providers to remotely manage their customers��at-home networks, networked devices and broadband and mobile data services. During the year ended December 31, 2010, its Applications segment accounted 12% of its total revenue.

The Applications segment is investing resources in next generation collaboration and communications systems offered by its Enterprise Applications division; customer contact, customer engagement and service management areas addressed by its Genesys and Motive businesses; carrier applications, such as communication and messaging, next-generation telephony, digital media and multi-screen delivery of content and personalized advertising, device agnostic location based address book services, and technologies, such as Long Term Evolution (LTE), IP multimedia subsystem (IMS), and Application Enablement.

Services Segment

The Services segment is focused in helping the service provider and customers realize the potential of media, information technology (IT) and telecommunications services and technologies. These services address the lifecycle of its customers��networks and operations, and encompass business consulting, systems design and integration, maintenance and managed services. The service offerings are organized around four areas: network and system integration, managed and outsourcing solutions, multi-vendor maintenance, and product-attached services.

The Company competes with Avaya, Cisco Systems, Ericsson, Fujitsu, Huawei, ZTE and Nokia Siemens Networks.

5 Best Tech Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Aruba Networks Inc.(ARUN)

Aruba Networks, Inc. provides next-generation network access solutions for the mobile enterprises worldwide. Its products include ArubaOS, an operating system software for wired, wireless, and remote access products for integrating user-based security, application-aware radio-frequency services, and wireless LAN access to deliver mobile networking solutions; software modules for ArubaOS; mobility controllers for managing wired and wireless access; access points, which serve as on-ramps that aggregate user traffic onto the enterprise network and direct this traffic to mobility controllers; and mobility access switches that provide secure network access for wired users and devices. The company also offers remote networking products comprising remote access points for securing always-on network access to corporate enterprise networks from remote locations; Aruba Instant; and Virtual Intranet Access client software that provides secure network connectivity for Windows laptops and MacBooks. In addition, it offers outdoor wireless mesh routers to secure Wi-Fi access and backhaul links for transporting voice, video, and data traffic wirelessly. Further, the company provides management and security software products, such as AirWave network management for managing mobile and wired users on multisite networks; and Amigopod access management, which manages secure wireless LAN access for visitors, contractors, employees, and their mobile devices, as well as offers cloud-based content security services for branch offices and teleworkers. It markets its products to construction, general enterprise, education, finance, government, healthcare, hospitality, manufacturing, media, retail, technology, telecom, transportation, and utility industries through its sales force, value-added resellers, value-added distributors, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Toby]  

    The company is set to benefit from the rapid proliferation of wi-fi devices and WLAN adoption across the globe. As enterprises move to 802.11n WLANs, there is a need to upgrade the infrastructure of the WLAN significantly, which is unlike the change from 11b to 11g, creating a significant opportunity for Aruba to gain market share.

    "We think that ARUN is the largest WLAN pure-play and the mind-share leader in the market, which we believe is a result of ARUN's superior Security-based differentiation," the analysts said.

    Apart benefiting from secular trends, the company also holds a significant advantage over larger, more-diversified networking companies in that an expansion of WLAN and network rightsizing does not cannibalize existing revenue streams from physical wired edge ports.

Friday, August 9, 2013

Why Polaris Is Poised to Keep Zooming

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, all-terrain vehicle maker Polaris Industries (NYSE: PII  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Polaris and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Polaris facts

Headquarters (founded)

Medina, Minn. (1987)

Market Cap

$6.6 billion

Industry

Leisure products

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$3.3 billion

Management

Chairman/CEO Scott Wine

President/COO Bennett Morgan

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

53.5%

Cash/Debt

$380.8 million / $106.4 million

Dividend Yield

1.8%

Competitors

Arctic Cat

Honda Motor

Kawasaki Heavy Industries

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 90% of the 349 members who have rated Polaris believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just yesterday, one of those bulls, TMFInnovator, explained why the stock still has plenty of room to run:

Polaris is a constant reminder to me on why I should never 'anchor' on a stock's current price. PII has had a seat on my watchlist since Aug '11, when it traded at $50. Since then, the company has executed almost perfectly and the stock price rose accordingly, hitting many new 52-week highs over the next two years.

I don't think they're done yet.

-Even at $95, PII is trading at a respectable 18 times earnings.
-There are still plenty of drivers. The US DoD awarded a $382 million contract for Polaris 'fire and emergency vehicles' through 2018. Consumer spending also continues to recover, and additional discretionary income is good for recreational vehicle sales.
-The dividend has increased 121% in four years and is still just 37% of LTM's free cash flow.   

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong four-star rating, Polaris may not be your top choice.

We've found another stock we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

How to Avoid Working One More Year

Hundred dollar bills with the words retire young.Getty Images Should you quit now or work another year? This is the question that plagues many soon-to-be retirees. In fact, there's even a term for those suffering from this condition: The work one more year syndrome. Some people who have adequate resources are afraid to retire, fearing that their nest egg won't last through a 30-year retirement. Here are some suggestions for people who have enough money to retire, but feel compelled to stay in the workforce for another year: Have a clear understanding of the 4 percent rule, and create a plan based on accurate knowledge. Retirees generally understand that a sustainable withdrawal percentage is 4 percent annually, but not everyone knows all the intricacies behind this rule of thumb. In order for you to gain more confidence that your portfolio will survive, you need to have a clear understanding of the original study by William Bengen (pdf) and how future changes will affect your assumptions. You should know the asset allocation used, the assumptions made and how the numbers are calculated so you can think for yourself whenever a new published study challenges the numbers. Build reasonable cushions into the plan. Another year of work means a bigger nest egg, but there are also other ways to increase your chances of retirement success. You could develop a detailed budget and identify areas where you could cut spending if market performance doesn't go your way. Your personal inflation rate is also somewhat controllable, and it could be smaller than standard inflation. There are many ways to conservatively plan for retirement, and working longer is just one of them.

Consider adding income that doesn't take much work. Many people with the work-one-more-year mentality think retirement means completely stopping all active income generating activities, but retirement can also mean making a bit of income on the side. For example, perhaps you could invest in physical real estate. Being a landlord is certainly hard work, but it also gives you an additional source of retirement income that generally keeps up with inflation. You could also turn a hobby into a small income-generating venture. There are lots of ways to make more money, and the income generated doesn't have to be huge to improve your retirement finances. Even just a few thousand dollars a year will mean a sizable decrease in how much you need to draw from your nest egg each year. Being flexible with withdrawals will greatly increase the likelihood that you can retire sooner. The 4 percent rule assumes a retiree will start off withdrawing a fixed amount and increase withdrawals by inflation even if the market tanks. In reality, I doubt anyone who actually runs the numbers will do this. You can drastically improve your chances of never depleting your nest egg just by suspending the inflation increase whenever the markets don't cooperate. The good news is that this is usually easily accomplished because you can probably cut out some parts of your budget temporarily without a noticeable sacrifice in comfort. Be optimistic about your future. Future returns may not be as bright as they were in the past, but your portfolio will do fine unless the year you retire is during a significant financial downturn and you aren't flexible with your spending. And even if this unfortunate series of events happens, you can always just find another job. There is no way to know for sure if your nest egg will last your lifetime. But if you take a few precautions, you won't have to spend your retirement years worrying about running out of money. Familiarize yourself with a few strategies that will help you to weather unforeseen events. And then when you hit your retirement savings goal, go ahead and quit your job if you still want to.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Is Viad Corp's Cash Machine Shutting Down?

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Viad Corp (NYSE: VVI  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Viad Corp generated $32.4 million cash while it booked net income of $12.9 million. That means it turned 3.1% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Viad Corp look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With 49.2% of operating cash flow coming from questionable sources, Viad Corp investors should take a closer look at the underlying numbers. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 32.9% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 46.8% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Looking for alternatives to Viad Corp? It takes more than great companies to build a fortune for the future. Learn the basic financial habits of millionaires next door and get focused stock ideas in our free report, "3 Stocks That Will Help You Retire Rich." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Viad Corp to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

This Week's 5 Smartest Stock Moves

If you're feeling good about the market, you're not alone. Take my hand as we go over some of this week's more uplifting headlines.

1. Tesla beats Edison, again
Range anxiety is real, and it's what keeps many drivers from making the switch to electric cars.

What happens if they run out of battery life on the open road? Will a cross-country road trip ever be feasible?

Well, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) is doing its part. The fast-growing maker of electric cars announced on Wednesday that it was dramatically expanding its Supercharger network. These are charging stations that allow Tesla Model S drivers to recharge their speedsters for free. Ramping up its fleet of charging stations will allow more customers to plan long treks without having to worry about range anxiety.

Now if only Elon Musk could do something to cure the "Are we there yet?" anxiety.

2. Amazon wants to direct
The return this past weekend of Arrested Development may have been a big deal for Amazon.com's (NASDAQ: AMZN  ) streaming rival, but the leading online retailer isn't asleep at the wheel when it comes to original programming.

Amazon revealed the five shows that it will be green-lighting for a slate of fresh episodes. Alpha House, Betas, and three children shows made the cut after Amazon gave viewers a few weeks to check out several pilots to determine what shows it should bankroll.

Production will now begin on the five shows, and they will begin streaming exclusively through Amazon Prime Instant between later this year and early next year.

3. Another notch for K-Cups
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR  ) has done surprisingly well for a company that lost patent protection governing its Keurig K-Cup portion packs last year.

A couple of months ago it was Lipton striking a deal to get its signature teas out in K-Cup form directly through Green Mountain, and now The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf -- the country's oldest and largest privately held specialty coffee and tea retailer -- has squared away a deal for Keurig owners to begin brewing the company's signature beverages come early next year.

These deals may not be material needle-movers for Green Mountain financially, but they once again validate going through the company itself and its growing distribution muscle than to chance it with a third-party distributor.

4. This friend request was long overdue
It was a rare streak for Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) shares, trading lower for seven consecutive trading days.

The unfortunate run came to an end on Thursday after BMO Capital Markets and Jefferies & Co. upgraded the shares. The news sent the stock 5% higher, making up some of the ground that it had lost in the previous days.

Both analysts are also nudging their price targets slightly higher on Facebook, encouraged by the improving state of the leading social networking website's ability to monetize its growing number of page views.

5. Everything checks out
The Fresh Market (NASDAQ: TFM  ) saw its shares pop 8% higher on Wednesday after posting strong quarterly results.

The upscale grocer saw sales and earnings climb 13% and 15%, respectively, for the quarter, fueled by healthy same-store sales growth and a widening of gross profit margins.

The near-term future is encouraging, and the supermarket operator is boosting its comps guidance by 50 basis points on both ends. The Fresh Market now sees same-store sales rising 2.5% to 4.5% for the entire year.

That's fresh!

Three smart moves for you
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Pactera Technology International Goes Negative

Pactera Technology International (Nasdaq: PACT  ) reported earnings on May 23. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Pactera Technology International missed estimates on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly. Non-GAAP earnings per share contracted significantly. GAAP earnings per share shrank to a loss.

Margins dropped across the board.

Revenue details
Pactera Technology International reported revenue of $152.3 million. The six analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated net sales of $159.3 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were much higher than the prior-year quarter's $65.5 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.12. The five earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ forecast $0.12 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.12 for Q1 were 40% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.20 per share. GAAP EPS were -$0.02 for Q1 compared to $0.14 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 25.9%, 900 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -0.9%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -1.1%, much worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $163.3 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.15.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $673.9 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.69.

Investor sentiment

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Pactera Technology International is outperform, with an average price target of $9.43.

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Add Pactera Technology International to My Watchlist.

New Durable Goods Orders Up 3.3% for April

New orders for manufactured goods increased 3.3% to $222.6 billion for April, according to a Commerce Department report (link opens as PDF) released today. After falling a revised 5.9% in March, this month's increase is a return to average, rather than a major manufacturing boost.

Source: Census.gov. 

Analysts' 1.1% growth estimates proved too pessimistic for April's numbers. Transportation equipment led the rebound, boosting 8.1% to $67.6 billion. But even excluding transportation numbers, new orders still managed a 1.3% bump, beating Mr. Market's 0.4% prediction.

Shipments fell 0.6% on a 2.9% slump in computers and electronic products, but unfilled orders increased 0.3% primarily because of a 0.8% bump in computers and electric products.

Inventories squeaked up 0.4% to $377.9 billion for April, setting (yet again) a new record since data was first recorded in 1992.

Today's April report exceeded expectations, but a May manufacturing index report released yesterday points to potentially tough times ahead.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Carney: Criticism of IRS Response "Legitimate"

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama's spokesman says the White House is facing "legitimate criticisms" for its shifting accounts about who knew what about the Internal Revenue Service's targeting of conservative political groups, and when they knew it.

Press secretary Jay Carney's acknowledgement Wednesday was an attempt to stem a growing narrative that the White House has bungled its response to the IRS controversy, even though the White House appears to have had no direct role in the agency's targeting of conservative political groups.

"There have been some legitimate criticisms about how we're handling this," Carney told reporters during his daily briefing. "And I say 'legitimate' because I mean it."

The criticism of the White House has largely focused on its evolving story about who in the White House knew about the IRS targeting before it became public May 10. Carney on Wednesday attributed the changing accounts in part to an attempt by the White House to provide the public information quickly, even before the full details are known.

"Quickly and comprehensively are not objectives that always meet," he said. "Our approach is we get the information we have to you, and as we get more information, we fill in the details."

Since the IRS targeting of conservative groups became public, the White House's primary focus has been making clear that Obama had no advanced knowledge of the agency's actions or an independent audit of the activity. Carney and other White House advisors say the president learned about the targeting like the general public -- from news reports.

However, Carney has struggled to provide full accounts of who on the president's staff may have known about the politically explosive IRS activity before the president.

In his first account last week, Carney said White House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler was told "very broadly" on April 24 about the inspector general's audit into the IRS office at the center of the targeting controversy.

But on Monday, Carney said staff in Ruemmler's office first learned of the impending IRS report on April 16. After Ruemmler was told, Carney said she then alerted White House chief of staff Denis McDonough, deputy chief of staff Mark Childress and other senior White House officials.

Carney continued Wednesday to withhold the names of those other staffers, saying he "can't account for every conversation that might have been had."

The shifting stories have created friction between Carney and reporters during his daily briefings. However, the press secretary took a softer tone Wednesday, calling reporters "smart" and "good at your jobs."

Of course, Carney may have had another reason for his sunnier disposition. Wednesday marked his 48th birthday.

"This is how I chose to spend it," he joked as he fielded questions from reporters.

Dow May Open Flat After Friday's Record Close

LONDON -- Stock index futures at 7 a.m. EDT indicate that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) may open down by seven points this morning, while the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) may open a single point lower. CNN's Fear & Greed Index has surged higher and currently sits at 91, suggesting that the bullish sentiment may be nearing a peak.

In London, markets opened strongly this morning, and the FTSE 100 is up 0.39% as of 7:30 a.m. EDT. Germany's DAX has continued its recent strong run, gaining a further 0.36%. Stock markets in the eurozone's recession-bound southern states all lost ground following weak economic data. In Greece, new data showed that industrial orders were down by 12.7% in March compared with the same period last year, while in Italy, industrial orders were down by 10% on a year-on-year basis. Greece's Athens Stock Exchange General Index is down 3% at the time of writing, while Italy's FTSE MIB is down by 0.8%.

U.S. trading may start slowly, as there are no major economic reports due this morning and the earnings calendar is nearly empty. Companies that are scheduled to provide quarterly updates include Campbell Soup, which is expected to report earnings of $0.56 per share before markets open this morning. Should Campbell Soup disappoint investors, its shares could be heavily traded, as the firm's stock has risen by 36% so far this year to outperform its peers. Campbell is also expected to provide updated guidance today -- it has previously projected earnings of between $2.51 and $2.57 for the 2013 fiscal year.

Other stocks that may be actively traded today include Qihoo 360 Technology. The Chinese Internet security firm reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share earlier this morning, beating consensus forecasts of $0.13 per share. Qihoo's revenue was up 58% compared with the same period last year, also beating expectations, and the firm has updated its second-quarter guidance to between $142 million and $144 million. Later today, TiVo is due to report its latest quarterly earnings, as are Urban Outfitters, Guess, and Big Lots.

Yahoo! stock is 2% higher in premarket trading this morning following reports that the Internet giant is about to buy blogging site Tumblr for $1.1 billion, although neither company had confirmed the deal at the time of writing.

Finally, let's not forget that the Dow's daily movements can add up to some serious long-term gains. Indeed, Warren Buffett recently wrote: "The Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions." If you, like Buffett, are convinced of the long-term power of the Dow, you should read "5 Stocks To Retire On." Your long-term wealth could be transformed, even in this uncertain economy. Simply click here now to download this free, no-obligation report.

Why Severn Trent, ITV, and BG Should Lag the FTSE 100 Today

LONDON -- After closing above 6,600 for three days in a row, the FTSE 100 (FTSEINDICES: ^FTSE  ) has beaten its five-and-a-half-year record again today, climbing 0.11% to 6,693 points by 7:40 a.m. EDT. A period of strong earnings reports and positive sentiment toward further economic stimulus will have helped the index close above 6,500 points for eight days in a row, provided there's no slump later today.

But not all of the FTSE 100's constituents are on the up. Here are three that are falling today.

Severn Trent
After soaring yesterday when an international consortium lined up a bid for the water company, Severn Trent's shares have fallen 1.3% today after the firm rejected the approach. The board told us today that "a conditional proposal was tabled ... at only a modest premium to the share price before the announcement of 14 May." Saying that the offer "completely fails to recognise the existing and potential value of Severn Trent," the board rejected it.

Whether there will now be an improved offer remains to be seen, but with the share price still up 12.4% on the pre-approach price, there appear to be quite a few investors who are hoping for further developments.

ITV
Despite ITV telling us this morning that it is on track for another year of good growth, the television company's shares have dropped 2.6%. Broadcast and online revenues for the first quarter of the year are up 6% to 456 million pounds. At ITV Studios, Q1 revenue is down 5% to 201 million pounds, but that is apparently due to a front-loaded delivery of programs last year, and full-year revenue growth is expected to reach double figures.

Chief executive Adam Crozier said, "As we anticipated, the quarterly pattern of demand from advertisers in 2013 is very different to 2012 although we expect it to even out over the course of the year," and he said the firm's objective is still to outperform the market over the full year.

BG Group (LSE: BG  )
After BG Group revealed its new long-term strategy yesterday, the company's share price rose 3.5%. But this morning it has lost some of that gain, falling 0.4%.

The oil and gas exploration and production firm will focus on areas in which it has a "distinct competitive advantage," with concentration on exploration and on liquified natural gas. Exploration spending over the next three years is expected to rise to $1.8 billion per year.

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Monday, August 5, 2013

Top 5 Performing Stocks To Buy For 2014

The stock market has had trouble building on yesterday's record high, as mixed economic data and earnings reports have made investors question their bullishness. As of 1:15 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is down 35 points, or 0.23%, owing almost entirely to a 7% plunge in the price of Boeing shares after reports of a fire aboard one of the manufacturer's 787 Dreamliner aircraft at London's Heathrow Airport raised concerns that the aircraft maker may not have solved its battery problems after all.

Still, the financial sector has remained a bastion of relative strength today, with the Dow's financial stocks performing quite well. Yet while JPMorgan Chase reported an impressive earnings beat this morning, the rest of the financials are actually outperforming the big bank. Traditional banking rival Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) is up 1.6% as shareholders look ahead to the bank's own quarterly report next Wednesday. The stock has already produced dramatic gains in the past year and a half, and despite having strong capital ratios that put it ahead of many of its peers, B of A will have to work hard to meet its goal of improving its standing in the home-mortgage lending market. Favorable mortgage results from JPMorgan suggest that rising interest rates won't necessarily prevent B of A from raising its lending profile, but they do set the bar higher for B of A to post sufficient growth to improve its market share.

Top 5 Performing Stocks To Buy For 2014: CVS Corporation(CVS)

CVS Caremark Corporation operates as a pharmacy services company in the United States. The company?s Pharmacy Services segment provides a range of pharmacy benefit management services, including mail order pharmacy services, specialty pharmacy services, plan design and administration, formulary management, and claims processing; and drug benefits to eligible beneficiaries under the Federal Government?s Medicare Part D program. This segment primarily serves employers, insurance companies, unions, government employee groups, managed care organizations and other sponsors of health benefit plans, and individuals. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 44 retail specialty pharmacy stores, 18 specialty mail order pharmacies, and 4 mail service pharmacies located in 25 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. This segment operates business under the CVS Caremark Pharmacy Services, Caremark, CVS Caremark, CarePlus CVS/pharmacy, CarePlus, RxAmerica, Accordant, and TheraCom names. The company?s Retail Pharmacy segment sells prescription drugs, over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, seasonal merchandise, greeting cards, and convenience foods through its pharmacy retail stores and online, as well as offers film and photo finishing, and health care services. This segment operated 7,182 retail drugstores located in 41 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia; and 560 retail health care clinics in 26 states and the District of Columbia under the MinuteClinic name. It has a strategic alliance with Alere, L.L.C. for the management of disease management program offerings that cover chronic diseases, such as asthma, diabetes, congestive heart failure, and coronary artery disease. CVS Caremark Corporation was founded in 1892 and is based in Woonsocket, Rhode Island.

Top 5 Performing Stocks To Buy For 2014: Yadkin Valley Financial Corporation(YAVY)

Yadkin Valley Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Yadkin Valley Bank and Trust Company that provides consumer and commercial banking services in North Carolina and South Carolina. The company accepts various deposit products that include demand deposits, checking and savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. Its loan portfolio comprises commercial, financial, and agricultural loans; construction, land development, and other land loans; real estate- 1-4 family mortgage loans; real estate- commercial and other loans; home equity lines of credit; installment loans to individuals; and other loans. In addition, the company offers mortgage brokerage services, investment services, and insurance services, as well as act as a trustee on real estate loans. It operates 38 full-service banking offices. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Elkin, North Carolina.

Top 10 Blue Chip Stocks To Invest In 2014: Automatic Data Processing Inc.(ADP)

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides technology-based outsourcing solutions to employers, and vehicle retailers and manufacturers worldwide. It operates in three segments: Employer Services, Professional Employer Organization Services, and Dealer Services. The Employer Services segment offers a range of human resource (HR)information, payroll processing, and tax and benefits administration solutions and services, including traditional and Web-based outsourcing solutions. Its solutions enable employers to staff, manage, pay, and retain their employees. The Professional Employer Organization Services segment provides employment administration outsourcing solutions, including payroll, payroll tax filing, HR guidance, 401(k) plan administration, benefits administration, compliance services, health and workers? compensation coverage, and other supplemental benefits for employees. The Dealer Services segment offers integrated dealer management systems (DMS) and other busines s management solutions to automotive, truck, motorcycle, marine, recreational vehicle, and heavy machinery retailers. This segment also provides a suite of additional integrated applications to address department and functional area of the dealership, including customer relationship management applications, front-end sales and marketing/advertising solutions, and an IP Telephony phone system integrated into the DMS to help dealerships drive sales processes and business development initiatives, as well as offers computer hardware, hardware maintenance services, software support, system design, and network consulting services. In addition, it designs, establishes, and maintains communications networks for its dealership clients that allow interactive communications among various site locations, as well as links between franchised dealers and their vehicle manufacturer franchisors. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Lowell]

    ADP offers a range of human resource (HR), payroll, tax and benefits administration solutions to its clients in United States, Canada, Europe, South America (primarily Brazil), Australia and Asia. As of June 30, 2010, the company had 520,000 clients listed for its employer based services such as processing the payroll for their employees. Payroll services include the preparation of client employee paychecks, electronic direct deposits and stored value payroll cards, along with employee pay statements, supporting journals, summaries and management reports.

    The company's stock is trading at a price to earnings ratio of 22 which is slightly above average. The stock has a 2.83% dividend yield and a market capitalization of $22.3 billion. The intriguing factors are that the company has $1.3 billion in Cash while only $35 million in long term debt, making the Balance sheet rock. If we calculate the dividend payout ratio, the company pays 36 cents a quarter in dividends x 4 = $1.44 per share. If we divide this number by earnings per share, $1.44 / $2.32, the payout ratio equals 62% which is very good.

Top 5 Performing Stocks To Buy For 2014: Telehop Communications Inc. (HOP.V)

Telehop Communications Inc. provides alternative telecommunication services to residential and business customers in Canada. It offers long distance calling services and cellular long distance services. The company also provides directory assistance and audio conferencing services. In addition, it offers Telehop HomePhone, a voice over Internet protocol service; prepaid calling cards; toll-free numbers; dial-in access numbers; virtual calling service; and Internet services. Telehop Communications Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Top 5 Performing Stocks To Buy For 2014: Optical Cable Corporation (OCC)

Optical Cable Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, and sells fiber optic, and copper data communications cabling and connectivity solutions primarily for the enterprise market in the United States and internationally. The company offers fiber optic cables for military field applications, and indoor and outdoor use; and copper datacom cables, including unshielded and shielded twisted pair for copper network installations. It also provides fiber optic connectivity products, such as fiber optic wall mounts, cabinet mounts and rack mount enclosures, pre-terminated fiber optic enclosures, fiber optic connectors, splice trays, fiber optic jumpers, plug and play cassette modules, pre-terminated fiber optic cable assemblies, adapters, and accessories; and copper connectivity products, including category compliant patch panels, jacks, plugs, patch cords, faceplates, surface mounted boxes, distribution and multi-media boxes, copper rack mount and wall mount enclosures, cable assemblies, cable organizers, and other wiring products for datacenter, telecommunications closet, equipment room, and workstation applications. In addition, the company offers data cabinets, wall-mount enclosures, cable management systems, and open frame relay racks for commercial and residential use; various enclosures, modules, and modular outlets for single dwelling and multiple dwelling residential uses; and cellular distribution system, a distributed antenna system for in-building enhancement of wireless communications signals. Further, it provides applied interconnect systems, such as specialty fiber optic connectors and connectivity components, ruggedized copper datacom connectors, and related systems and solutions for military and harsh environment applications. The company sells its products to distributors, original equipment manufacturers, value-added resellers, and end-users. Optical Cable Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Roanoke, Virginia .

3 Biotech Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- At Stockpickr, we track daily portfolios of stocks that are the biggest percentage gainers and the biggest percentage losers.

Stocks that are making large moves like these are favorites among short-term traders because they can jump into these names and try to capture some of that massive volatility. Stocks that are making big-percentage moves either up or down are usually in play because their sector is becoming attractive or they have a major fundamental catalyst such as a recent earnings release. Sometimes stocks making big moves have been hit with an analyst upgrade or an analyst downgrade.

Regardless of the reason behind it, when a stock makes a large-percentage move, it is often just the start of a new major trend -- a trend that can lead to huge profits. If you time your trade correctly, combining technical indicators with fundamental trends, discipline and sound money management, you will be well on your way to investment success.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at a several stocks under $10 that are making large moves to the upside today.

Alexza Pharmaceuticals

Alexza Pharmaceuticals (ALXA) is a pharmaceutical company focused on the research, development and commercialization of novel proprietary products for the acute treatment of central nervous system conditions. This stock closed up 1.9% to $4.63 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.51-$4.73

52-Week Range: $2.91-$6.65

Tuesday's Volume: 509,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 421,914

From a technical perspective, ALXA trended modestly higher here right off its 50-day moving average at $4.48 with above-average volume. This move is quickly moving shares of ALXA within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if ALXA manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $4.80 to $4.86 and then once it clears more resistance at $5.20 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ALXA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $4.48 or above more support at $4.20 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 421,914 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then ALXA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $6.65.

Novavax

Novavax (NVAX) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing recombinant protein nanoparticle vaccines to address a range of infectious diseases. This stock closed up 3.1% to $2.59 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $2.47-$2.63

52-Week Range: $1.52-$2.77

Thursday's Volume: 1.37 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 1.53 million

From a technical perspective, NVAX spiked notably higher here right above some near-term support at $2.35 with decent upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of NVAX within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if NVAX manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $2.69 to $2.72 and then once it clears its 52-week high at $2.77 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in NVAX as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $2.35 or its 50-day at $2.19 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 1.53 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then NVAX will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $3.50 to $4.

Galectin Therapeutics

Galectin Therapeutics (GALT) offers drug research and development to create new therapies for fibrotic disease and cancer. This stock closed up 3.2% to $5.16 in Tuesday's trading session.

Tuesday's Range: $4.93-$5.17

52-Week Range: $1.60-$5.22

Tuesday's Volume: 81,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 52,581

From a technical perspective, GALT trended up here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $5 with above-average volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of GALT within range of triggering another breakout trade. That trade will hit if GALT manages to take out its 52-week high at $5.22 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GALT as long as it's trending above some near-term support at $4.75 and then once it sustains a move or close above $5.22 with volume that hits near or above 52,581 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then GALT will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are its next major overhead resistance levels at $6 to $6.78.

To see more stocks that are making notable moves higher today, check out the Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Sunday, August 4, 2013

MannKind's Countdown to Liftoff?

Perennial underdog MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD  ) could be on its countdown to liftoff. The company announced its first-quarter results after the market closed on Thursday. Here is the countdown of the highlights -- from least to most important.

3. Financial
At this stage in the game, investors know that the company is still incurring losses. They know there will be little, if any, revenue. There weren't any surprises on those fronts.

MannKind reported a net loss of $41 million, or $0.15 per share. That's only slightly worse in absolute terms than the $38.2 million, or $0.27 per share, loss reported in the same quarter last year. The difference stemmed largely from an increase in operational expenses related to clinical studies.

No revenue was reported for first quarter. However, MannKind does conveniently toss in the cumulative amount of revenue that the company has made since its founding in 1991. That total is just shy of $3.2 million. In case you're wondering, this calculates to an average of around $143,000 per year. My hunch is CEO Alfred Mann made more than that in interest payments from his savings accounts.

The most important financial figure for the company is its cash balance. MannKind announced cash and cash equivalents of $28 million as of the end of the first quarter. That's down from $61.8 million at the end of 2012 as cash burn rates increase with two clinical studies under way. The company also still has $125.4 million available for future borrowing. 

MannKind expects that its current cash reserves will take it into the fourth quarter. However, this doesn't factor in another $90 million of warrants that the company will almost certainly exercise. This added amount should tide MannKind over well into next year.

2. Afrezza clinical studies
Status of the two ongoing clinical studies of Afrezza easily trumps financial results in terms of importance. The news from MannKind is: So far, so good.

Both studies appear to be on track to complete as scheduled, with the first wrapping up in May and the other in June. The company still expects to share data from the studies in mid-August and resubmit the New Drug Application for Afrezza by early October.

While MannKind's Senior Vice President of Clinical Sciences, Robert Baughman, said that the dropout rate in the studies is slightly higher than that of the original protocol in the type 1 diabetes study, there are no real concerns. Baughman noted that the dropout rate is tracking along well with projections and that the company overenrolled patients included in the studies. When asked about how well physicians are adhering to protocols in the studies, Baughman responded that the company is "comfortable" that all is in order.

1. Potential partners
The most important information that was announced related to potential partners for commercializing Afrezza. MannKind is currently in discussions with multiple potential partners. Alfred Mann also stated that several others indicated they would resume discussions and due diligence in August when the clinical results are announced.

The company is talking with global and regional organizations. MannKind might even contemplate tackling the endocrine market on its own, but hasn't made a final decision yet.

At this point, no names have been mentioned. There has been plenty of speculation for a long time about who might be a good fit. My Foolish colleague Max Macaluso suggested last year that Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) should get over its Exubera failure from years ago and snatch up MannKind. Max also pointed out that Pfizer needs a new blockbuster drug and offered up the idea that the inhalation technology used for Afrezza could potentially be used for other products -- including Viagra.

I would put Lilly (NYSE: LLY  ) in the same category for the reasons that Max listed for Pfizer. Lilly also gave up on its attempt to market an inhalable insulin product. It also needs a new blockbuster drug. And I don't doubt the company could find some other uses for MannKind's inhalation technology.

However, I think that Sanofi (NYSE: SNY  ) could be an even better fit. The company is a leader in the insulin market and has the sales heft to launch Afrezza globally. It also doesn't carry the baggage of a past failure with inhalable insulin. 

Liftoff?
No one knows which company or companies will ultimately partner with MannKind or when they will do so. A partner might not be signed up until Afrezza gains approval.

I do expect that Afrezza will gain regulatory approval, though. And I think MannKind will find one or more partners rather than attempt to market the drug itself. Will this countdown ultimately result in liftoff after all these years? Let us know what you think in the comments below.

The future of MannKind?
Will MannKind's disruptive technology revolutionize the way diabetes is treated around the world -- or will the Food and Drug Administration put the kibosh on this product before it even hits the market? In a new premium research report on MannKind, these complex issues are made crystal clear, in addition to showing you why to buy or sell the stock today. To find out more click here to grab your copy today.

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The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Why Astronics Shares Shot Up

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Astronics Corporation (NASDAQ: ATRO  ) were headed for the stars today, gaining 11% after a strong quarterly earnings report.

So what: The aerospace supplier said that sales increased 13.6% to $74 million, a new company record, and came in 3% ahead of estimates. Adjusted earnings per share also beat the Street's view, coming in at $0.49 vs. an estimated per-share profit of $0.43. The company's backlog was also slightly higher than in the previous quarter, and CEO Peter Gundermann said Astronics was tracking toward the high end of its previous guidance and will update its outlook in the second quarter. The revenue forecast remains at $280 million to $310 million, with nearly all of that coming from the aerospace segment.

Now what: For a modest earnings beat, the 10% jump may seem a little exaggerated, but the pieces seem to be coming together for Astronics to have a stellar 2013. Gundermann noted that sales were "strong across the majority of our markets and product lines." Combine that prospect with the promising guidance, which would seem to indicate that the second quarter has gotten off to a good start, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Astronics bump up its guidance in its next report. See what happens next by adding the company to your Watchlist here.

More Expert Advice from The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." I invite you to take a copy, free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

Amazon Falls, But Will It Continue?

Last Thursday, Amazon (AMZN) announced its fiscal first quarter results. The company missed analyst estimates for revenues, but beat on the bottom line. Second quarter guidance was disappointing, which has become a trend for the online retailer. On Friday, Amazon shares dropped by more than 7 percent. For many, Amazon's lack of profits has led to a sky high valuation, and the shorts are quick to throw out that fact. However, Amazon shares for the most part do not stay down long, as I've been telling you how many trade this company more on price to sales than price to earnings. Today, I'll break down the results, and discuss whether the recent fall is a sign of things to come.

First Quarter results:

For the quarter, Amazon reported total revenues of $16.07 billion. This number missed analyst estimates for $16.16 billion. Don't forget, analysts had cut their estimates going into this report. When Amazon reported Q4 results, Amazon guided to revenues of $15.0 to $16.6 billion, and analysts were looking for $16.86 billion. So analysts took down their average estimate by $700 million, and Amazon still missed.

Amazon does not provide earnings per share guidance, but they do provide operating income guidance. Amazon guided from an operating loss of $285 million to an operating profit of $65 million. They came in at an operating profit of $181 million, well above the high end of their guidance range. On the bottom line, Amazon earned $0.18, which beat analyst expectations for $0.09. While this beat seems impressive at twice what analysts were expecting, analysts were expecting $0.34 when Amazon reported Q4. Thus, Amazon analysts took down their numbers, and Amazon beat. Given how small their profit margins are, it does not take much to beat on the bottom line.

Margin analysis:

The table below shows Amazon's Q1 margins against the year ago period numbers. I'll use these numbers to further break down the results. For simplicity, I'm calculating Amazon's gross profit (and ! thus gross margins) as revenues minus cost of revenues. Although you may see other ways to calculate Amazon's gross margins, this is the way that most analysts do it.

Amazon actually reported a 261 basis point increase in gross margins. This is because the company's revenues were up 21.88% in the period, but the cost of revenues only rose by 17.69%. Amazon's gross profit rose by 35.18% over the year ago period, which is why you see the tremendous jump in gross margins.

But on the operating side, things got much worse. Fulfillment expenses, Amazon's largest operating expense (below gross profit) rose by 38.69%, and marketing expenses rose by 31.67%. Technology and content expenses rose by 46.35%, and general and administrative expenses rose by 23.00%. Other income also declined a little. Overall, Amazon's total operating expenses rose by 37.83% over the year ago period. That's why, despite a 261 basis point rise in gross margins, Amazon's operating margins declined by 33 basis points. Operating income for the period was down 5.73%.

Amazon also saw a decline in interest income, while interest expenses were up 57% over the year ago period. Amazon recouped some of these losses since other expenses improved a bit. Amazon's net income plunged from $130 million to $82 million for the period. Remember, last year's Q1 period was significantly helped by an $89 million gain in equity-method investment activity, net of tax. This year's period saw a $17 million loss. Overall, Amazon's net income dropped by 37%, and you can see that in the net profit margins above.

Even though Amazon reported a profit for the quarter, the company's trailing twelve month margins actually got worse. That is because, as I said above, net income was a bit higher in Q1 last year thanks to the investment gain. Amazon's trailing twelve month operating margins are not at a new low, b! ut traili! ng twelve month net profit margins are. The chart below shows those numbers over the past couple of years.

The bottom line margins could start to improve over the next quarter, depending on how Amazon does. The company had a small $7 million profit in Q2 last year, so anything above that would improve the trailing twelve month numbers. Amazon also had a big Q3 loss, so if they just don't lose as much in that quarter this year, they could see trailing margins improve. However, it is extremely funny to see a company quickly improve revenues, while profits go in the other direction. In Q1 of 2010, Amazon's net profit margin was just under 4.20%, and in this year's period, it was just over 0.50%.

Second quarter guidance:

Amazon's guidance has disappointed in recent quarters, and it did again this time. For fiscal Q2, Amazon guided to revenues in a range of $14.5 billion to $16.2 billion. The midpoint of that guidance is $15.35 billion, well below the $15.94 billion analysts were looking for. The midpoint of that guidance implies 19.5% year over year growth, under a key 20% level that investors are watching. Amazon's growth is slowing down, and the 20% level will be a key one to watch.

Like I mentioned above, Amazon does not provide earnings per share guidance. They provide operating income guidance. Amazon guided in a range from an operating loss of $340 million to an operating profit of $10 million. The midpoint of that range would be an operating loss of $165 million, well below the $107 million operating profit in the prior year period. Amazon has done well in terms of operating income guidance lately, but that's not exactly hard to do.

Amazon's balance sheet:

Since Amazon is not very profitable and they continue to spend, spend, spend, their balance sheet has been getting a bit weaker in the past few years. Because they are a retaile! r and bus! iness can be very seasonal, it's usually useless to compare the balance sheet from one quarter to the next (Q4 to Q1). The best way to compare things are year to year, or do what I do, which is use a 4-quarter rolling average (the average of the last four quarters reported).

Amazon's cash and short-term investments pile has increased over last year's period, thanks to the $3 billion in debt they raised late last year. That has also increased the amount of working capital over Q1 last year, although the current ratio has decreased slightly. One item I like to look at is the debt (liabilities to assets) ratio. The chart below shows that ratio on a 4-quarter rolling basis.

Since Q3 of 2010 (which includes the 4 quarters between Q4 '09 and Q3 '10), Amazon's rolling debt ratio has gone from 55.87% to 69.77%. As you saw in the chart above, the rolling average is rising every single quarter. Amazon is not in any financial trouble currently, but they might want to get this ratio under control at some point.

Valuation using price to sales:

Because Amazon doesn't really have any earnings per share, using a price to earnings valuation doesn't really work. This is especially true because as Amazon's net income has fallen, the stock has gone higher and higher. I've been arguing that the street is really looking at the price to sales ratio, and that's the best explanation for now. The market cap keeps going up because of rising sales.

After last quarter's report, Amazon was trading at just over 2 times trailing twelve month sales. Based on some historical numbers, and the fact that growth was slowing down, I argued that using even 1.8 times price to sales got you to $298 a share if Amazon produced $75 billion in revenues during 2013. After Friday's fall, Amazon is trading at 1.81 times trailing twelve month revenues. That 1.8 times sales figure is look! ing rough! ly in-line right now. However, if Amazon continues to disappoint on the revenue front, I think this valuation should be taken down to 1.7 times sales. If Amazon disappoints, $74 billion for revenues this year could be appropriate, as current estimates call for $75.42 billion. At 1.7 times sales and a $74 billion revenue clip, Amazon would be worth about $276.

That is basically where we were at going into Friday. Yes, I know this is a lot of hypothetical numbers, but Amazon's valuation has been a mystery to some for quite a while now. This is the best way I think you can analyze it. However, one must also take into account the falling margins and weakening balance sheet. If Amazon continues to see falling margins and a rising debt ratio, you might have to discount that a bit. It's amazing that Amazon can keep disappointing on so many fronts and the stock holds up, while Apple (AAPL) actually has profits, a dividend, and a buyback, and the stock plummets. Eventually, Amazon could plummet too.

Beefing up the content wars:

Amazon has continued to invest in content as it tries to rival Netflix (NFLX). In the two plus years since Amazon launched Prime Instant Video, Amazon has boosted its content library from about 5,000 titles to over 38,000 titles. You can see the growth in Prime's library in the chart below.

Amazon still remains well behind Netflix though. Netflix just announced a huge first quarter, bringing in plenty of new subscribers thanks to their hit original show "House of Cards". Netflix has launched a second original since then, and has new episodes of "Arrested Development" coming in late May. Amazon is also launching their own original content, but Amazon is targeting mostly comedies, and cheaper shows. Amazon is looking to spend about $1 million per episode, while some of Netflix's originals cost $3 million, $4 million, or more, per e! pisode. O! f the "Top 200" shows watched on Netflix during Q1 (top 100 movies and 100 TV shows), Amazon had just 74 of those titles. Amazon will continue to spend to rival Netflix, but it remains to be seem how successful they are. Since Amazon doesn't release prime subscriber numbers or financial results, we may never know. However, many speculate that Amazon is losing a fair amount of money on Prime, and since Netflix is barely making money with a lot more subscribers, it definitely is possible.

Final Thoughts - short on pops:

Amazon's stock has done rather well in recent years, despite net income levels falling and revenue growth not meeting expectations. Amazon missed revenue estimates in Q1, and issued lower than expected guidance again. Even though Amazon beat on the bottom line, Amazon's weak guidance will likely cause analysts to reduce their earnings estimates going forward. It seems highly unlikely that Amazon will earn $1.44 this year.

So what's the trade? Well, because this stock is so tough, I think it stays flat or goes higher from here. However, I think you can short on the next pop, probably one to around $275 or $280. As you can see from the chart below, Amazon has met some resistance at that area. If Amazon continues to miss estimates and guide lower, it is likely that eventually this stock will continue falling. Even the price to sales argument won't work then.

(click to enlarge)

(Source: Yahoo! Finance)

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Additional disclosure: Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.