Saturday, December 15, 2012

Why TripAdvisor Soared This Week

TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP  ) had a big week -- it was up almost 11%. The online travel research firm was up big early in the week on the news that John Malone's Liberty Interactive (NASDAQ: LINTA  ) purchased Barry Diller's nearly 5 million shares at a premium price. Liberty now has a controlling stake in the company. The company faces challenges in the near term relating to the fiscal cliff, and I'm not sure about the impact of this news over the long run. I do like this company's prospects going forward, however. It houses user-generated reviews, and then sells ads to online travel agents like Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE  ) and Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN  ) . It's also been forging a nice partnership with Facebook (NASDAQ: FB  ) .

It's had a volatile year, but I really like it for the long term. Competition from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) is one potential risk to look out for in the future.

As one of the most dominant Internet companies ever, Google has made a habit of driving strong returns for its shareholders. However, like many other web companies, it's also struggling to adapt to an increasingly mobile world. Despite gaining an enviable lead with its Android operating system, the market isn't sold. That's why it's more important than ever to understand each piece of Google's sprawling empire. In The Motley Fool's new premium research report on Google, we break down the risks and potential rewards for Google investors. Simply click here now to unlock your copy of this invaluable resource, and you'll receive a bonus year's worth of key updates and expert guidance as news continues to develop.

Is This the Start of an Intel Rally?

In today's video, Motley Fool tech and telecom analyst Andrew Tonner discusses Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC  ) move as the company makes further progress in its efforts to break into the smartphone and tablet space.

Recently, Intel released details about some of its latest mobile technology, and specifically about its Trigate Transistors, the latest in its Atom Mobile Chipset line. The semiconductor company claims that these chips are substantially more power efficient and faster.

However, though this is a step forward for Intel, it may not be what will finally set the wheels rolling. The success of the chips will depend on the acceptance by major handset makers like Samsung and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) . But, those companies already design their own chips based on ARM architecture, and the likelihood of migrating to Intel is very low, especially when Intel's Atom Chip line is being estimated to cost around $45 (compared to $20 for other more cost-effective options).

When it comes to dominating markets, it doesn't get much better than Intel's position in the PC microprocessor arena. However, that market is maturing, and Intel finds itself in a precarious situation longer term if it doesn't find new avenues for growth. In this�premium research report on Intel, our analyst runs through all of the key topics investors�should understand�about�the chip giant. Better yet, you'll continue to receive updates for an entire year. Click here now to learn more.

Apple Sinks as the Dow Treads Water

Another day brings investors another chance to wait for the slow-moving cogs of the federal government to make progress toward resolving the fiscal cliff. Today's market action suggests that investors are more than willing to be patient, as stocks are trading within a tight range amid an absence of important news. As of 10:55 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) are up just 12 points, while the broader market has fallen slightly.

Responsible for much of the Nasdaq Composite's (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC  ) 0.4% drop is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) , which has sunk 3.6% despite its latest iPhone 5 going on sale in China. Analysts at UBS cut their price target on the stock from $780 to $700, arguing that while the current quarter's sales may be strong, revenue in the first quarter of next year is likely to fall off, as bulls may be overstating China's potential impact. Despite Fool contributor Evan Niu's arguments that Apple TV could be the company's next blockbuster, the tech sell-off has continued, and Apple remains more than 25% below its recent highs.

General Electric (NYSE: GE  ) rose about half a percent on news that it will increase its dividend by 12% but has since slipped back to breakeven. The company slashed its payout during the financial crisis, but since then, it has done a good job of restoring it bit by bit every year. Still, the expected $0.19 per-share quarterly payout is nearly 40% below the pre-cut level of $0.31.

Finally, United Technologies (NYSE: UTX  ) climbed a quarter-percent after giving earnings guidance last night for its 2013 fiscal year. United Tech sees earnings in a range of $5.85 to $6.15 per share, representing 13% growth. However, with analysts already expecting earnings near the top of that range, the gains likely owed more to CEO Louis Chenevert's comments that the company could likely sustain earnings even if the fiscal cliff didn't get resolved.

Can Apple recover?
The recent swoon in Apple shares certainly raises big questions about whether Apple remains a buy. To get definitive answers to all your questions, Motley Fool senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief Eric Bleeker has put together his most in-depth report yet on Apple and its opportunities and challenges going forward. Read his views on reasons both to buy and to sell Apple, and then make your own informed investing decision. To get instant access to his latest thoughts on Apple, simply click here now.

New Jobless Aid Applications Fall to Second Lowest Rate of 2012

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER

WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell sharply for a fourth straight week, a sign that the job market may be improving.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications for unemployment benefits fell 29,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, the lowest in two months. It is the second-lowest total this year.

Applications are a proxy for layoffs, so the drop indicates that companies are cutting fewer jobs. But employers also need to step up hiring to rapidly push down the unemployment rate.

Applications spiked five weeks ago because of Superstorm Sandy. The storm's impact has now faded. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell 27,000 to 381,500. Before the storm, applications had fluctuated between 360,000 and 390,000 this year.

The storm had little effect on overall hiring in November. Employers added 146,000 jobs last month, the government said last week. That's about the same as the average monthly gain of 150,000 in the past year.

The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent -- a four-year low -- from 7.9 percent in October. But that decline occurred mostly because more people without jobs gave up looking for work. The government counts people without jobs as unemployed only if they're actively seeking one.

The department also said Tuesday that employers posted the most open jobs in four months in October. That suggests that hiring could pick up a bit in the coming months.

But some companies may postpone hiring this month because of concerns over the "fiscal cliff," the package of tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect next year. If all the changes in the cliff take effect for a full year, economists forecast it would push the economy into recession.

President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner are negotiating a potential deficit-reduction deal that would avert the cliff. The goal is to complete an agreement by the end of the year, though talks could continue into January.

Most economists say that if the tax increases and spending cuts are in effect only temporarily while a budget agreement is in sight, the damage to the economy would be minor.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Boston Sci Up 6% on Return of ICDs

Shares of Boston Scientific (BSX) are up 49 cents, or 7%, at $7.63, in after-hours trading after the company announced at market close that it will resume sales of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD), which were taken off the market in the U.S. a month ago when the Food & Drug Administration raised questions about the devices.

BSX said the FDA gave approval to reintroduce the devices with two manufacturing changes. The halt in ICD sales “may have a material impact” on the company’s results, which it plans to disclose during Q1 results.

BSX’s also said it expanded its own investigation into the matter and found that it had not submitted proper documentation of changes in manufacturing for some of its other ICDs, and that it is re-submitting paperwork to the FDA regarding those devices. It hopes to return those other ICDs — including Livian, Prizm, and other models — to the market in the U.S. “soon,” the company said.

“We are committed to doing the right thing every time,” said president and CEO Ray Elliott. “And we acted voluntarily, swiftly and appropriately to ensure compliance with all regulatory requirements. Our entire sales force is energized and hard at work!”

Analysts had written in recent weeks that the sales halt could cost Boston long-term market share as competitors such as St. Jude Medical (STJ) rushed into the vacuum.

Netflix: Upside in Mobile Devices, But Stock’s Rich on Speculation, Says Pac Crest

Pacific Crest’s Andy Hargreaves today reiterates an Outperform rating on shares of Netflix (NFLX) and an $85 price target, writing that while there are many good things to be said about its business, he recommends buying on pullbacks, as “acquisition speculation has pushed the stock above current fundamental support.”

Netflix shares this morning are up $1.49, or 1.6%, at $92.22.

The company is still “the clear leader in subscription streaming” despite the fact that there’s a “stubborn” trend toward “turning Netflix on and off” among subscribers, and despite the fact that “DVD churn appears likely to remain high,” writes Hargreaves.

Hargreaves cites data from his firm’s “Consumer Tech Survey,” which showed that 32% of respondents who own a smartphone, and 40% of those who own a tablet computer subscribe to Netflix, which is higher than the average of 23% of all respondents who subscribe. That suggests to Hargreaves that there is “significant further subscriber growth opportunity” among “connected device” owners for Netflix.

Another favorable stat, in Hargreaves’s view is that “Netflix has higher share among Amazon.com (AMZN) Prime and HBO subscribers than the general public,” and appears in fact to be growing.

Hargreaves’s $85 target is based on a discounted cash flow model that assumes the company reaches 35 million domestic streaming subscribers by 2015.

Another 787 Problem; Boeing Stock Drops

Marcin Sobczyk/The Wall Street JournalMust get better

Another day, another bad story about a Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Qatar Airways said it’s grounded one of its three Dreamliners. What’s a possible worry is that Qatar Airways said it was the same mechanical problem that forced a United Airlines (UAL) plane to make an emergency landing earlier this month. Last week the Federal Aviation Administration ordered inspections of all Dreamliners.

Apparently not a man to hide his displeasure, Qatar Airways’ CEO said: “We will demand compensation (from Boeing)… we are buying planes from them to use them, not to put in a museum.”

Shares of Boeing Co. (BA) are down 1.8%, the biggest faller on the Dow Industrial Average (DIA).

The Dreamliner project has been tough sledding for Boeing. The plane was delayed for more than three years, leading to canceled orders and bad publicity. In fairness, the company is trying to reinvent commercial air travel — planes made with plastic, better cabins, better air, and so on– here’s a video of what the Dreamliner means for flyers:

And as the New York Times notes, the Dreamliner had more advanced orders than any commercial plane in history. Boeing will hope today’s news is just another bump in the proverbial road.

Research In Motion: A Year in Review, and a Look Ahead

The words "good riddance" couldn't be more applicable than when they were directed toward Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM  ) founders, Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis, to kick off 2012. The two leaders, did their darmnedest to run RIM into the ground, trying desperately to make the Blackberry obsolete in the exploding mobile industry. They almost succeeded.

Thankfully, RIM's world began to look better on Jan�. 23; that was the day it announced that Thorsten Heins was taking over as CEO. Even Heins, though, who has since reinvigorated both RIM and its share price, got off to a shaky start.

Oops, did I say that?
Heins' auspicious beginning began on his very first conference call as RIM CEO. After RIM's share price initially spiked upon news that Balsillie and Lazaridis were out, Heins sucked the air from the room when he stated, "I don't think that there is some drastic change needed." RIM stock proceeded to drop 8%. Clearly, drastic change was needed and, thankfully for RIM shareholders, it was coming.

While the hardest of RIM's hardcore fans wouldn't admit it, Balsillie's and Lazaridis' refusal to move into the 21st�century made their departure an absolute necessity. When Balsillie finally resigned his board seat in March, the sigh of relief was audible. Heins did an about face, too, when he retracted his "no change is needed" at RIM comment, and replaced it with�, "significant change is needed." That's more like it.

The "significant change" at RIM really began when Heins finally got his team focused on what it does best -- provide outstanding flexibility, security, and reliability to mobile business and public industry customers. Targeting Blackberry sales to its core market is the only way RIM is going to rejuvenate sales.

The notion of being all things to all people is, at least in part, what got RIM into trouble in the first place. Balsillie and Lazaridis refused to acknowledge the obvious, and continued to vigorously go after the retail market. Problem is, those choices put RIM directly in the path of several oncoming trains --�Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) and its iPhone line of smartphones was growing market share almost exponentially, and Samsung would soon take over the top spot in mobile phone sales from longtime leader, Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) .

Add the successful Nexus smartphone from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) into the mix, not to mention its Android OS, and the already hyper-competitive retail mobile market has gotten even tougher. Though most of the retail smartphone alternatives are able to connect with a company's IT systems in their own way, none can match the reputation in the business and government community of RIM.

Nokia finds itself in a similar position as RIM, in that both are hinging growth and, in a very real sense, their respective futures, on making a splash with new products. The difference is that Nokia is working at gaining market share in the world of Apple's iPhone 5, Samsung's Galaxy, and Google's Nexus -- a tall order, to say the least, and one that RIM is wise to merely dabble in.

Looking ahead
Monday, Nov. 12, was a red-letter day for RIM shareholders. The much anticipated release of the BB10 OS, and a couple of new phones to go along with it, was finally announced. At the time of RIM's press release, its stock was hovering in the $8.50 range. After today's slight bump, RIM is now over $14 a share, and nearing its 52-week high; what a turnaround. Even a recent lawsuit filed by Nokia claiming that RIM infringed on its patents, couldn't slow down RIM's BB10-fueled momentum.

So, what's the big deal about BB10?

The new BlackBerry 10 has "a large catalog of the leading applications from across the globe and across all categories," according to the RIM press release. No definitive specs, as yet, but it certainly sounds like users won't have to wait for the apps to catch up with their phones, something Microsoft's Windows 8 OS is struggling with. For navigation, BlackBerry 10 will use RIM's new "Flow" to navigate in and out of the BlackBerry Hub.

With at least one eye on the retail market, the new BlackBerry Balance gives users a way to seamlessly bounce back and forth between work and personal data, maintaining all-important security for the business side of things. There's also the BB10 �Keyboard. The app "learns" how a user types, and then automatically adapts itself to the idiosyncrasies of each user.

To its credit, even as year-over-year quarterly sales have steadily declined, RIM has continued to add to its strong balance sheet. With just over $2 billion in cash, and zero long-term debt, RIM has bought itself time for the commercial world to adopt BB10. But here's the thing -- a bet on RIM is a bet on BB10, period. If, by some chance, BB10 disappoints, 2013 will be much like the start of 2012: painful.

Like RIM, Nokia's been struggling in a world of Apple and Android smartphone dominance. Nokia has banked its future on the next iteration of its Windows smartphones. Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers has created a new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia, to help investors decide if the company is a buy or a sell. To get started, simply click here now.

Friday, December 14, 2012

Tough Markets Make the Case for Mid-Cap Growth Stocks

The markets may have been bullied a bit recently, but the way things are shaping up makes a solid case for mid-cap growth stocks.

Markets rolled modestly higher on Friday ahead of the Memorial Day weekend as bulls once again shrugged off some bad data points on the economy and focused on some good news. But for the week and month, stocks were down across by the board by as much as 2.5%. The really bad data Friday came from a plunge in pending home sales, while the news was only mildly weak in personal income and spending. I guess people just aren't carrying that optimism over to the home-buying sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week with a 0.6% loss, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sank 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2% and the Russell 2000 rose 1%. Developed markets outside the United States are up 3.7% for the year, while emerging markets are exactly flat. For the year, the Dow is up 7.5%, the S&P 500 is up 5.8%, the Nasdaq is up 5.4% and the Russell 2000 is up 6.7%.

It's a little strange to see the stodgy, big old stocks of the Dow leading the major indexes, and it is primarily as a result of the success of large-cap healthcare stocks - Health Care SPDR (NYSE: XLV), up 14% this year - and staples, as in Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR (NYSE: XLP), up 10%, and energy, Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE), up 12%. Examples of each of these are Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), up 22%; Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), up 11%; and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) up 14%.

As for the commodities basket, best this month were orange juice futures, +12%; lumber, +6.6%; and wheat, +5.5%. Laggards were silver, -17%; coffee, -10.7%; and crude oil, -10.6%.

Bonds were higher this week because they loved the bad news about lingering unemployment and a poor read on pending home sales. It's not that 'they' like to see people suffer; it's that inflation is their arch enemy, and when people are out of work they can't ask for higher wages.

Meanwhile, we also got a second read Thursday on U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter. It showed that headline growth rose at 1.8% annualized in the January-March time span, which was disappointing since it was the same amount originally estimated and not a few ticks higher.

Many economists were expecting more like 2.2%. Compare that to other countries' first quarters: According to BMO analysts, the data show +6.1% in Germany, +5.6% in South Korea, +2.1% in Mexico, +1.9% in the U.K., or the 3.7% dive in Japan.

Market Gets Bullied

Pushing around the market in the past week and month is the dollar. It's down 5.2% this year, which again helps companies that sell a lot overseas by making U.S. goods cheaper. The dollar was up as much as 4% through mid-May, making this month troublesome, but as it has fallen 1% in the past week equities' values have improved.

The latest read on unemployment claims also kept a lid on enthusiasm this week.

They unexpectedly rose in the week of May 21, by 10,000 to a two-week high of 424,000. Economists expected a decline to 400,000. And just to make matters worse, the prior week was revised up to 414,000 from the prior announced level of 409,000.

It's a little hard to believe we are this far along in a recovery and jobs are still scarce. It's true that unemployment claims are a very volatile data series, yet still something is happening. What?

Well, the plain fact is that businesses are hiring but they are not going crazy. They are being cautious until they are more confident that demand for goods and services will meet or exceed expectations. Remember that Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) last week told executives to hold back on new hiring. And I hear from my sources at Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) that layoffs are planned there as well.

This is one of those things that are bad for people, but good for stocks. Companies are simply figuring out how to do more work with fewer people. The whole nature of work is changing in a lot of places as companies adjust to their customers' needs and their changing revenue stream.

If you subscribe to The New York Times online, read an article published this week titled, "At Well Paying Law Firms, a Low Paid Corner." It describes how top-tier law firms have created a new career track for attorneys who are willing to give up the potential of making partner for the chance to set their own hours, travel less and live in parts of the country with lower costs of living. The article provides a fascinating glimpse into the ways that companies adapt to change, and learn to bring in higher rates of earnings despite bringing lower rates of revenue. They hire less, but they might get more out of the people that they do hire, and actually pay them less.

And finally, one more bit of news that depressed the Dow stocks a bit was word that, in aggregate, corporate profits, on an after-tax basis, dropped 0.9% in the quarter -- the first decline in over two years. Ouch.

Bottom line: The news was bad in the second half of the week, but trading was good. That's the right combination. When stocks rally, even a little, in the face of bad news it usually means that the sourness is already discounted in prices, and the next move can be higher to discount a recovery.

The Case for Mid-Cap Growth Stocks

For investors trying to keep it simple, my recommendation all year has been to focus on the growth half of the S&P Midcap 400 -- available for purchase through the iShares S&P Midcap 400 Growth (NYSE: IJK) -- because this is the part of the cycle that favors them. They are small enough to grow briskly despite weakness in the broad economy, but large enough to take advantage of international opportunities. The main thing I look for in a big holding is that it sink less into the broad market lows than its peers and that it climb out of those lows faster.

Click to enlarge:



Above you can see a quick reality check. Your biggest portfolio holding does not have to be higher for every market jiggle and jaggle, because that will lead you into some very unproductive performance chasing. But it does have to be true for periods longer than three months. As you can see in the chart just since November 2010, the IJK sank into December much less than the S&P 500 (purple line) or non-U.S. developed markets (green line). Then it jumped out of the Thanksgiving low a lot more sharply. Then in March it also sank a lot less into the lows inspired by the Japanese earthquake, and again rose out of those lows more sharply. And now it has fallen less sharply since the April highs.

The big idea with putting 55% of the money into a single fund is that if the goal is to perform better than the market on a risk-adjusted basis, you need to own something different than the market. That's unassailable. Yet the number of major bets you can make is not large. You could make a big sector bet, but those are tricky because sector strength waxes and wanes. You could make a big bet on commodities, but again you would really need to stay on top of those in a very active way -- and you would not meet the goal of low volatility. So in my view it comes down to a bet on size (large, medium or small) and style (growth or value).

I did not want to recommend a big bet on small-caps because they tend to be more focused on domestic sales, and the U.S. economy is not the torch of the world right now. And if you bet on large-caps, you are really back to simply betting on the market. And as for value, well, it tends to work best coming out of deep lows, and then the baton is passed to growth.

You may disagree with all of these assumptions, but after a lot of math and testing behind these assertions I come away with a decision to focus on mid-cap growth stocks. Everything else -- sector bets on healthcare, staples and the rest -- is color around the edges of the big picture.

The Week Ahead

June 1: Motor vehicle domestic sales; ISM Manufacturing Index; Construction spending.

June 2: Initial jobless claims, Nonfarm business productivity; Unit labor costs.

June 3: Nonfarm payrolls; Unemployment rate; Average workweek; ISM services index.

Disclosure: None

Start-up Cue aims to order your digital life

SAN FRANCISCO�Cue wants to lessen data overload.

The tech start-up is offering a service that organizes and creates a visual daily snapshot of your online accounts � e-mail, calendar, contacts, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, instant messages and more. The process is complex, but the task is simple: bring order to social-media clutter for consumers and businesses.

A free iPhone applaunched on Tuesday. A Web app will be available this week.

Maximizing time has become a preoccupation among increasingly harried Americans. A Google search of "make the most of your day" yields thousands of results, ranging from self-help books to productivity tips.

"We were not built to handle what is thrown at us," says Daniel Gross, Cue's 20-year-old CEO. "Ultimately, this is a real problem that is getting worse with connected devices and more apps."

"It is a huge problem but a huge opportunity," says chief technology officer Robby Walker, noting that consumers, on average, absorb 63,000 words a day in content � the equivalent of a short book. Walker knows a thing or two about start-ups: He sold his previous one, presentations tool Zenter, to Google in 2007.

The Cue app � its name is a nod to Q, the gadgets genius in James Bond movies, and a play on the phrase "cued up" � could have huge implications for personal productivity, says Brian Blau, consumer analyst for Gartner.

"They're tackling a real issue: information overload," Blau says. "Cue does that for the basics: e-mail, calendar and social networks. But it has limited features."

A visual timetable of the user's day depicts various meetings with detailed data on the people they met with, in the form of their profile photo, tweet, e-mail and phone number.

Contact information, such as phone numbers and job titles, are automatically updated within the system. A search function makes it easy to find specific contact info.

If Cue sounds vaguely familiar, it's because the company started as search engine Greplin in February 2011. Thursday's launch qualifies as a company pivot to address the proliferation of social-media use on smartphones.

The 14-person company has raised $4.8 million in funding from a Sequoia Capital round that includes outgoing Facebook CTO Bret Taylor and Gmail creator Paul Buchheit.

"People expect more from themselves and their peers because of tech. They want to be Super Mom, Super Engineer," says Gross. "This tool gives back time in your lives."

Rising Possibility of Military Strike on Iran

The U.S. press has been reporting that the Obama administration is publicly disagreeing over the timing of a potential attack on Iran�s nuclear facilities.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that according to Aaron David Miller, a former Mideast peace negotiator in the Clinton administration, the U.S. and Israel have a �significant analytic difference� over the estimates of how close Iran is to shielding its nuclear program from an airstrike.

�There�s a growing concern (more than a concern) that the Israelis — in order to protect themselves — might launch a strike without approval, warning or even foreknowledge,” Miller said.

On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Israel must consider launching an operation before Iran reaches an �immunity zone� — referring to Iran�s goal of protecting its uranium enrichment and other nuclear operations by moving them to deep underground facilities such as the one at Fordo, near the holy city of Qom.

In an address to the annual Herzliya Conference at the Interdisciplinary Center campus north of Tel Aviv, Barak said, �The world has no doubt that Iran�s nuclear program is steadily nearing readiness and is about to enter an immunity zone� and added that �if the sanctions don�t achieve their goal of halting Iran�s nuclear weapons program, there will arise the need of weighing an operation.�

On Friday, U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the U.S. �is absolutely committed to preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.�

Whether the U.S. and Israel are playing a game of �good cop, bad cop� on the world stage is uncertain. All that is certain is crude oil prices are destined to remain high while the tension persists between Iran and the Western countries that are imposing an oil embargo later this year.

Let�s hope the escalating war of words does not spin too far out of control.

The opinions contained in this column are solely those of the writer.

Want to share your own views on money, politics and the 2012 elections? Drop us a line at letters@investorplace.com and we might reprint your views in our InvestorPolitics blog! Please include your name, city and state of residence. All letters submitted to this address will be considered for publication.

Apple, Priceline and Google seek $1,000 stock

Talk about Apple being the next stock to hit $1,000 highlights a race on Wall Street to reach that milestone.

Priceline, Apple, Google and Intuitive Surgical are in a four-way battle to see which will be the first Standard & Poor's 500 stock to break the $1,000-a-share barrier.

Wednesday, Priceline (PCLN) was $745.90, Google (GOOG) $635.15, Apple (AAPL) $624.31 and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), which makes robotics for minimally invasive surgery, $543.97.

"It's the new ego boost, to get a stock to $1,000," says Jon Johnson of StockSplits.net. A stock's price, by itself, doesn't indicate how expensively or cheaply valued a company's shares are. And talk of $1,000 might be premature for any of these stocks. Online travel firm Priceline, the closest , is 25% away. Still, investors are starting to think about $1,000 due to:

�Updates to price targets. As Priceline and Apple blow past existing price targets, analysts are making adjustments. Topeka Capital Research this week put a $1,000 price target on Apple. Analyst Mike Olson at Piper Jaffray says Priceline could top $1,000 a share in two years or less.

�Blistering run by the stocks. Shares of gadget maker Apple, for instance, are up 54% this year. If that pace continues � something that many analysts say would be a tough accomplishment � the stock would easily top $1,000 by year's end.

�Growth prospects of the companies. Companies in the hunt for $1,000 are in dynamic areas of the global economy. Priceline, for instance, is surging due to expansion outside the U.S., says Scott Kessler of S&P Capital IQ.

Cast Your Vote

Several companies outside the S&P 500 have already passed $1,000, including Seaboard, now trading for $1,900, and Washington Post, which did it in 2004.

A current S&P 500 member, Class B shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, once traded for about $3,500. But that was prior to a 50-for-1 stock split in 2010 before the stock was added to the index. Wednesday it closed at $81.05.

S&P's Kessler rates both Google and Priceline as stocks to "hold," as Google digests recent acquisitions and Priceline is fairly valued. Apple needs another hit product before its stock could touch $1,000, says James Ragan of Crowell Weedon.

And Kessler says investors should remember one thing whenever excitement grows over stocks crossing such milestones: "Past performance isn't a predictor of future success."

India bans cotton exports

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- India banned all cotton exports on Monday, causing U.S. cotton futures to surge and igniting fears of another jump in prices for cotton goods.

India decided to immediately impose the ban because it's worried about a possible supply crunch in the country. One reason: India's cotton exports may have overshot government targets last year, its Directorate General of Foreign Trade said in a statement.

U.S. cotton futures jumped 4.5% -- the most allowed in a single day of trading -- to 92.23 cents per pound following the news.

"This India development really caught the entire cotton industry and traders off guard because it came with no warning," said Phil Flynn, senior market and commodities analyst with PFG Best.

Starbucks wristbands created these jobs

Flynn said the market reaction to India's move reflects concerns that it could start a new rise in cotton prices that mirrors last year's rally.

Cotton prices hit an all-time high of $2.27 a pound last March due to a global supply crunch for the commodity.

Cotton clothing manufacturers responded to that steep price jump first by raising prices for consumers and eventually using less cotton and more blended fabrics such as poly-cotton.

Flynn said cotton prices cooled off toward the end of last year and reached as low as 84.35 cents a pound.

"We're in March again. Could we potentially have another big rally like last March? Maybe," said Flynn. "A void in the supply chain from India's action could cause a price spike."

It would be deja vu for consumers, too.

"Cotton clothing prices have been coming down since last year as supply caught up with demand. But that could change now," he said. 

Friday Options Brief: CSCO, CECO, SPG & GE

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) – Shares in the world’s largest maker of networking equipment increased as much as 2.5% during the session to secure an intraday high of $17.42 after the company announced it will pay its first-ever cash dividend on April 20, to shareholders of record on March 31, 2011. Cash-rich Cisco Systems said the dividend will amount to $0.06 a share. Shares in the San Jose, CA-based manufacturer of switches and routers are still hovering around their lowest level since April 2009, and fell to a new 52-week low of $16.97 earlier this week.

But it looks like one big option strategist is looking for the price of the underlying to rebound ahead of January 2012 expiration. The investor initiated a three-legged bullish play, selling puts to partially finance the purchase of a call spread, in order to position for brighter days in CSCO’s future. The trader sold 40,000 puts at the January 2012 $15 strike at a premium of $0.95 each, purchased the same number of calls up at the January 2012 $17.5 strike for a premium of $1.72 per contract, and sold 40,000 calls at the higher January 2012 $22.5 strike at a premium of $0.42 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $0.35 per contract, thus positioning the investor to make money in the event that Cisco’s shares rally another 2.5% over today’s high of $17.42 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $17.85 by expiration.

Maximum potential profits of $4.65 per contract are available to the trader should shares in CSCO jump 29.2% to exceed $22.50 ahead of expiration day next January. Shares in the name last traded above $22.50 back in November 2010.

Career Education Corp. (CECO) – Put options on the for-profit provider of education services are active this morning with shares in Career Education Corp. slipping from an intra-session high of $21.02 at the start of the session to a low of $20.50. The stock currently stands 0.75% lower on the day at $20.53 just before 12:40pm in New York. More than 3,280 puts changed hands at the April $20 strike against previously existing open interest of just 743 contracts. It looks like most of these put options were purchased for an average premium of $0.85 each by investors positioning for CECO’s shares to pull back further ahead of April expiration.

Put buyers are prepared to profit should the price of the underlying stock drop 6.7% from the current price of $20.53 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $19.15 by expiration day next month. CECO’s shares hit a year-to-date low of $18.40 on January 10, 2011, which is well above the stock’s 52-week low of $16.36 on October 14, 2010.

Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) – The retail REIT that owns, develops, and manages regional malls and other real estate properties attracted bullish options traders during the session with the value of its shares rising as much as 1.75% during the session to a high of $105.06. It looks like most of the volume in Simon Property Group options took place in the July contract where investors appear to be selling puts to buy bull call spreads.

Options traders sold approximately 2,000 puts at the July $90 strike at an average premium of $2.38 each, picked up around the same number of calls at the July $105 strike for an average premium of $5.97 per contract, and sold some 2,000 calls at the July $110 strike at an average premium of $3.50 a-pop. Average net premium paid to initiate three-legged bullish spreads reduces down to just $0.09 per contract. Investors employing this strategy start to make money if Simon Property Group’s shares rally above the average breakeven price of $105.09 ahead of July expiration. Bullish players could walk away with maximum potential profits of $4.91 per contract should shares in SPG increase 4.7% over today’s high of $105.06 to exceed $110.00 by expiration day in July.

General Electric Co. (GE) – Shares in General Electric rallied 2.75% today to secure an intraday high of $19.75, but the purchase of a large chunk of deep out-of-the-money put options in the September contract suggests one options player has his parachute at the ready in case the conglomerate’s shares should come crashing down in the next six months.

One block of 45,000 puts were picked up at the September $12 strike for a premium of $0.18 per contract within the first 12 minutes of the opening bell this morning. The 45,000 contracts are roughly 4.6 times greater than the number of puts represented by open interest at that strike. The put buyer, from an at-expiration view, makes money if General Electric’s shares plunge 40.1% off today’s high of $19.75 to breach the effective breakeven price of $11.82. Options implied volatility on GE is currently down 10.7% to stand at 30.55% as of 1:10pm in New York.

Facebook Offers Free Ads to Small Businesses

Small businesses that have yet to build a social media presence may like hearing Facebook is teaming with the National Federation of Independent Business and U.S. Chamber of Commerce to offer a way to get them more customers.

The group is rolling out a nationwide program to "invest, educate and connect with small businesses" by teaching them how to reach customers via the social media giant's 800 million users, Facebook says. Beginning in January, Facebook will also launch Facebook Small Business Boost, where the site will award $10 million worth of free advertising to some 200,000 local businesses through $50 worth of ad credits each.

See if (GOOG) is traded within the Action Alerts PLUS portfolio by Cramer and Link

As the economic recovery stalls, poor sales are the main reason small businesses cannot expand or hire, according to NFIB research. Offering help to attract customers "will be most welcome for America's job creators," CEO Dan Danner says. The move follows on the heels of Google's(GOOG) decision to encourage small businesses to advertise with the search engine in July. LinkedIn, a social media network that targets working professionals, is also hoping more businesses will advertise with them. The network is offering a free $50 advertising credit for businesses through October 6.LinkedIn says businesses can choose a target audience of professionals for the ads by "job title, geography, industry, seniority and even [membership in] LinkedIn Groups," according to promotional material."Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy, and we believe that Facebook can be a tremendous tool to fuel their growth and success," says Facebook's COO, Sheryl Sandberg. "Our goal is to give small businesses a boost by helping them find customers the best way possible -- through recommendations from friends."Small businesses will also have the opportunity to engage in webinars, case studies and tips through the education effort put together by the NFIB and the chamber. Facebook and representatives from both organizations will commence a roadshow across the country to teach how to get the best results and share in the benefits of using Facebook for marketing. To follow Laurie Kulikowski on Twitter, go to: http://twitter.com/#!/LKulikowskiTo submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

  • Finisar plummets post-earnings on weak China demand. Shares in Finisar (FNSR) tumbled in after-hours trading following a conference call in which the company told analysts it had been experiencing a dramatic reduction in orders in China as part of an 'industrywide phenomenon.' With management unable to predict when the situation will ease, Finisar expects FQ4 net income and revenue will come in below analyst forecasts. The guidance overshadowed Finisar's better-than-expected FQ3 results (see details below) and is one of the reasons why Seeking Alpha contributor Nigam Arora believes the optical networking fever is about to break. Pre-market, FNSR -34%, with rivals also suffering: JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -11.2% and Ciena (CIEN) -7.1% (7:00 ET). Oclaro (OCLR) fell 12.1% in after-hours trading.
  • Icon Icahn gives back client money. Activist investor Carl Icahn took clients and the hedge fund industry by surprise in announcing plans to return his clients' money, becoming the latest in a string of prominent managers to retreat from client fund management. Though he doesn't forecast another market dislocation anytime soon, he sent his clients a six-paragraph letter in which he explained that "I do not wish to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis." Investors have around $1.75B in Icahn's $7B Icahn Capital hedge fund, so even after returning client funds, Icahn will still have plenty of firepower left to invest in companies that need new direction.
  • Dynegy may seek bankruptcy protection. In an SEC filing late yesterday, Dynegy (DYN) said "in light of our likely covenant non-compliance, we are attempting to amend or replace our existing credit facility." Failing that, the company may be forced to file for bankruptcy. Dynegy expects the capacity of any amended or new credit facility to be less than the current capacity of $1.8B and at a higher cost. Earlier yesterday, Dynegy reported a larger Q4 loss than expected and said it wouldn't provide guidance estimates for 2011 "in light of recent management and board changes that may affect the company's strategic plans." Dynegy shareholders may now regret their recent rejection of a board-endorsed $665M buyout offer from Carl Icahn. In after-hours trading, DYN -1.55%.
  • Sprint, T-Mobile mull tie-up. Sprint (S) is once again considering whether and how to combine its business with T-Mobile USA as both struggle to stay competitive with larger rivals. Though the companies are the third- and fourth-largest wireless carriers in the U.S., they lack the size to compete for must-have devices like Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and customers are turning to AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) instead. T-Mobile, a Deutsche Telekom (DTEGY.PK) subsidiary, is also falling behind the competition on next-generation networks. Though a tie-up potentially makes sense for both Sprint and T-Mobile USA, sources said a quick deal is unlikely, as the two sides disagree on how much T-Mobile USA is worth and on how the ownership and leadership of a combined company would be structured.
  • AIG makes Treasury payment. AIG (AIG) repaid approximately $6.9B to the Treasury yesterday, using funds raised from the sale of MetLife (MET) shares. AIG has made around $36B of repayments in 2011 so far. Repayments from TARP recipients have now reached $287B, or approximately 70% of the total $411B spent under TARP.
  • Oil volatility on Libya, Saudi Arabia, EIA forecasts... Oil is down slightly this morning but its recent run-up is far from over. Political unrest in the Middle East, and in Libya specifically, has inspired Shi'ite marches in Saudi Arabia's oil-rich east, and a nationwide 'Day of Rage' is planned for March 11 (followed by another on March 20). Saudi Arabia is OPEC's biggest producer, and Societe Generale's head oil analyst said in the 'most extreme, worst case scenario,' crude could hit $200/barrel if Saudi Arabia experiences serious unrest. Yesterday, the EIA raised its 2011 crude forecast to an average of $105/barrel from $91/barrel and cut expectations for non-OPEC production to 170K barrels per day from 310K bpd. Crude futures -0.3% to $104.73 (7:00 ET).
  • Pummeling continues for Netflix. Shares of Netflix (NFLX) fell 5.8% in yesterday's trading after news broke that Warner Bros. (TWX) would release popular Batman film "The Dark Knight" on Facebook, adding the social networking site to the growing list of firms that offer streaming movies and TV shows. Though the Warner Bros. rental is only a trial, consensus is that it will likely turn into a permanent program and Goldman Sachs noted that "on a longer-term basis, we think that Facebook could become a credible threat" to Netflix.
  • Clouded outlook for Novartis drug. An FDA advisory panel voted 13-4 to approve indacaterol, a lung drug developed by Novartis (NVS), in a 75-microgram dose, but voted 12-5 against approving the 150-microgram dose used in Europe. The mixed approval clouds prospects for QVA149, another Novartis lung drug in development which could potentially see sales of $5B annually if approved but which relies on doses of indacaterol higher than 75 micrograms.
  • Muni bond market slows to a crawl. Muni bond issuance is on pace for its lowest quarter in at least 11 years, with $31.5B of debt sold through March 4. The slowdown follows a rush of borrowing late last year as municipal borrowers struggled to get their budgets in order. Though issuances could bounce back somewhat between now and the end of the month, the lack of volume thus far is still somewhat surprising, and could both delay government-funded projects and reignite investors' concerns about the stability of muni bond prices.
  • Synthetic junk bonds gain traction. Demand is growing for synthetic junk bonds, which allow investors to take positions in the U.S. junk bond market without holding the underlying securities. Similar instruments have had a volatile past, as synthetic mortgage-backed CDOs collapsed when the recent housing crisis began, and similar collateralized bond obligations were slammed when the telecoms bubble burst in the early 2000s. The renewed interest in synthetic junk bonds reflects a more bullish view of the U.S. economy, and is also driven in part by the record low yields on actual bonds.
Earnings: Wednesday Before Open
  • China Dangdang (DANG): Q4 EPS of $0.03 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $107.7M (+58.7% Y/Y) beats by $1.3M. Shares -2% premarket. (PR)
  • Navistar International (NAV): FQ1 EPS of $0.16 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $2.74B (-2.4% Y/Y) misses by $0.16B. (PR)
Earnings: Tuesday After Close
  • Finisar (FNSR): FQ3 EPS of $0.47 in-line. Revenue of $263M (+58% Y/Y) beats by $5M. Shares -33% premarket. (PR)
  • Focus Media (FMCN): Q4 EPS of $0.41 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $160M (+16% Y/Y) beats by $18M. Shares +5.9% AH. (PR)
  • Suntech Power (STP): Q4 EPS of $2.02 may not be comparable with consensus of $0.29. Revenue of $945M (+62% Y/Y) beats by $101M. Shares +2.7% AH. (PR, earnings call transcript)
Today's Markets
  • In Asia, Japan +0.6% to 10589.5. Hong Kong +0.4% to 23810. China +0.1% to 3003. India +0.2% to 18470.
  • In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.7%.
  • Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.3% to $104.73. Gold +0.2% to $1430.30.
Wednesday's Economic Calendar
  • 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
    9:30 Hearing: FY'2010 Government Finances
    10:00 Wholesale Trade
    10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
    1:00 PM Results of $21B, 10-Year Note Auction
    1:30 PM Hearing: Treasury Budget (Geithner)
  • Notable earnings before Wednesday's open: AEO, DANG, NAV
  • Notable earnings after Wednesday's close: HRB, MCP

The SA Currents team contributed to this post.


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Chuck Schwab at Impact: Bernanke ‘BS’; Obama’s Got to Go

Charles Schwab speaking with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

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Charles Schwab, founder and chairman of the investment company that bears his name, reiterated his critical views of both Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke and President Barack Obama’s economic leadership on Thursday during the Schwab Impact conference in San Francisco.

Schwab echoed some themes he raised in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal in late September. He views significant change in Washington as critical to a turnaround in the U.S. economy.

“What Bernanke is saying is a bit of BS,” said Schwab, 73, in a discussion led by CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo before about 2,100 advisors and other guests. “The U.S. does not have full control of prices and inflation, which can come from China or could be from oil or another commodity on which we are interdependent as a country.”

(On Wednesday, Bernanke expressed support for the Federal Reserve’s Operation Twist program, which, as part of its overall accommodative policies, will keep the target range for the fed funds rate at zero to 0.25%.)

“I should say that I am generally more positive than what I see on CNBC,” added Schwab. “From a 39,000-foot view, the economy doesn’t look so bad. We have 139 million or 90% of the workforce employed, liquidity is incredible, we’ve deleveraged the economy … many things are highly positive.”

The U.S. economy has “good pools of labor and capital” to help it expand. “We are at a point where we can make a turn,” the former Schwab CEO shared. What must come first, he asserts, is formidable shifts in Washington.

“It requires change and a sense of change in leadership, anticipation of new tax systems, dealing with budget deficits,” Schwab said. “Someone of strength has to make these decisions, and we do not have that strength,” he explained, referring to, but not directly naming Obama.

As for Republican leadership, the party has to have “someone electable,” Schwab said, noting that he sees Dodd-Frank as a “disaster.”

In terms of the Wall Street and other protests over economic inequality, he wants free-market mechanisms to lead the way: “Let’s reward success and not suppress it, and yes, we need tax reforms,” Schwab shared. “To level the playing field, we have to have a robust economic expansion. There’s no other solution. Occupy Wall Street doesn’t get how free enterprise works.”

The needed jump-start to a more robust U.S. economy involves getting consumer, investors and other out of the present “funk,” he adds. “It starts at the top of companies and filters down. The same goes with the country,” Schwab explained. “There are lots of good things about the current administration, I guess,” he conceded.

But the political focus on fairness is off base, in his view. “The world is not fair; it comes down to hard work,” Schwab said, adding that not all of his children "get" this perspective.

To improve our global competitiveness, a shift at the top is also desirable, he noted. “As a country, we’ve lost out in terms of a lack of leadership; we’re thirsty for that … and must have strong leadership, which I hope to see in November 2012,” he said.

He praised economic growth in China, but said Schwab is not ready to do business there yet due to regulatory and other constraints.

In terms of possible U.S. regulation tied to speculation in the markets and the recent “flash crash,” Schwab said that he believes, as in every industry, that some boundaries are needed.

“With computerization, everything--like trades--is happening at high speeds,” he explained. “That’s been negative for the markets. I have some questions and would like to see boundaries here.”

Click here to read AdvisorOne’s complete coverage of Schwab Impact 2011.

After CenturyLink-Savvis, Telco Consolidation to Target Mid-Market

By Ben Kolada

CenturyLink’s (CTL) Savvis (SVVS) acquisition, which closes today, is the largest telco-hosting deal on record, though we expect that it will be followed by a rise in smaller telco-hosting pairings. As the number of large hosting targets, which typically serve enterprises, continues to shrink, we anticipate that telcos that were unable to get their hands on prized enterprise properties will still look to enter this industry by consolidating the fragmented small and midsized hosting market.

Based on the most notable telco-hosting deals to date -- Verizon’s (VZ) Terremark buy and CenturyLink’s reach for Savvis -- enterprises appear to be the primary market for large telcos looking to sell cloud services. However, we are noticing emerging interest from telcos looking to serve SMBs. Last month we saw Madrid-based telco Telefónica (TEF) spend a reported $110m for cloud hoster Acens Technologies, which serves more than 100,000 SMB customers throughout Spain. On a much smaller scale, in February local competitive carrier CornerStone Telephone announced that it was picking up consumer and SMB-focused web hoster ActiveHost for an undisclosed amount.

We’ve written before that the greatest opportunity for telco-hoster combinations may actually be for regional and smaller telcos to buy smaller hosters. The hosting market is still fragmented, particularly among smaller providers, and many of these firms are experiencing capital constraints that are preventing expansion. Regional and local telcos will be able to take advantage of this fragmentation and acquire small complementary hosting providers without spending too much money, since smaller providers tend to garner smaller valuations, typically between 6-8 times last-quarter annualized EBITDA. However, if telco-hosting consolidation grows at this level, the acquired properties will most likely be colocation-focused, since most small hosting providers founded their business on colocation services.

Semiconductors: Wells, Longbow Cite Positive Data; Ultrabooks Big Swing Factor

A few of the Street’s semiconductor analysts today offered updates on the health of the industry based on recent data points.

Wells Fargo’s semiconductor analyst David Wong ticks off a list of positive recent semiconductor indicators:

  • Micron Technology (MU) last Thursday beat analysts’ revenue estimates slightly, and actually, it was “significantly better” than Wong had been expecting.
  • The North American semiconductor book-to-bill ratio was 1.01 in February, up from 0.96 in January, with bookings rising 12% from January, on a rolling three month basis, according to a report from industry trade group SEMI.
  • An article in trade pub�DigiTimes‘s reported that Taiwanese chip designers are seeing a “jump in orders from China-based handset makers,” driving up revenue “sharply” for March and, probably, April. A similar article from DigiTimes said chip suppliers to notebook computers are seeing a lift from rising production of new “ultrabook” computers, “which are lifting the companies� book-to-bill ratios over 1.0.” Adds Wong, “According to sources, orders placed by notebook clients are more than 50% above the monthly average levels in January and February.”

Digging into the book-to-bill ratio, Wong remarks,

We think that the fact that semiconductor equipment orders have risen in each of the last five months suggests that chip companies are seeing signs that the inventory correction is ending. However, the relatively low book- to-bill ratio suggests to us the semiconductor industry is continuing to make efforts to minimize the risk of excess supply.

Longbow Research‘s JoAnne Feeney writes that data points coming from Asia point to PC component sales being flat this quarter to up 5%, which is better than what she had been expecting to be a decline of 10% to 15%.

That said, the year is shaping up as having more sales pushed into the latter half of the year because of the roll-out of the “ultrabook” laptops that Intel (INTC) is pushing OEMs to introduce:

Discussions point to supply chain disruptions arising from UB introductions as the main culprit for recent inventory dynamics and emphasize that we should expect a heavily back-end-loaded 2012.

Feeney reiterated a Buy rating on shares of Intel, and a $30 price target. She also reiterates a Buy on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and a $10 price target. Finally, she sees the advent of sales of Intel’s “Romley” server chip helping Volterra Semiconductor (VLTR), and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock and a $34 price target.

Fin

Bellwether Dow Chemical Valuation Confirms Current Bearish Inflection Point

Dow Chemical, Inc. (DOW) has had and continues to have very good management and is producing well for the economy. It is clearly a very stable and consistent organization. Some may think that trading in a similar manner with the indices (DOW, S&P, etc.) is wise. I disagree, with several caveats. Over the past 10 years or so (particularly the last five years) it has not been a profitable place to have invested your money. This company continues to qualify as a “quality” firm within the diversified chemical market. However, you might keep in mind that there are other, often smaller, chemical companies that have produced a far better investor ROI over recent years as well as the past decade.

Earning estimates on balance are quite positive for the near-term, and should be improving. How the Street will reward or punish DOW or any other company in the future is always questionable. It appears, according to comparative analytics, that the upside is quite limited and that the downside currently has more appeal.

My analytics, to a large degree, have to do with comparative analytics. Comparing DOW with its peers and other top capitalization/revenue producing companies, in general, provides a clear but only modestly positive story of both the company and the chemical industry group.

Timely news includes the fact that earnings are expected to beat the “Street.” Dow Chemical also has a recent excellent relative strength. These guys are super smart but too big to help the investor.

As a sector, basic industries and its component companies has always been difficult for investors to profit from on a consistent basis. This is likely due to the revenue dynamics that are often tough to figure for evaluations. Basic industry companies are clearly not the focus within a negative economy and are often too stodgy. Typically, at the bottom of an economic cycle, they can appear to have relatively high P/E ratios. However, when the economy improves and appears to be topping, the P/E multiple tends to shrink. In DOW’s case, they will have to get a string of positive earnings going before the P/E can begin shrinking and it once again is a viable organization. The financials have been under severe government and investor scrutiny and are likely to remain in that position for some time.

My analytic focus (to invest or not to invest) on any company is most heavily weighted on fundamentals and company valuations. DOW appears to have the prospect of improving earnings in the longer term. For me, this is something most worthwhile to consider prior to buying. For prudent investing, those earnings will have to continue to remain strong over a quarter or two (or more) before I would consider it be a “wise investment.” DOW doesn't compare well to its major peers. I need to see very good to excellent valuations before recommending an investment. There are many other basic industry companies that meet my criteria. That means two things: the projected price and the risk / reward ratio must be in the top 5% of my candidates for purchase of that particular sector / industry group.

Fundamental Valuation Analytics Table (weighting 40%):

Dow Chemical, Inc.

Stock and Symbol

Approx. Current Price

My Target Price % Above (+) / Below (-) Current Price – Valuation is “Tweaked.”

One Year Projections from the next - - Bullish Inflection Point.

PEG

P/E

Forward P/E

Valuation Divergence (%)

(One - Year Projected to a Mean) from the next - - Bullish Inflection Point.

Dow Chemical (DOW)

35.5

+ 10 to + 20%

2.75

24.7

14.4

142%

Apple, Inc. (AAPL)

339

+ 20 to + 40+%

0.72

18.9

13.0

131%

Comments:

I always compare Apple, Inc. (APPL) with my other “bellwether” companies as well as those I am considering for investment. For me, Apple is numero uno! I then do a quantitative rating for my weighted fundamental, technical, and consensus analysis.

DOW: Rating: Fundamental: Very Good, Technical: Good, Consensus: Good.

AAPL: Rating: Fundamental: Excellent, Technical: Very Good, Consensus: Excellent.

Obviously this is a very positive, but not “excellent” valuation and target price projection for Dow Chemical, however the PEG is much too high!

This work / analytics is for your possible taking positions at a future date and definitely not at this time.

5 Things You Need to Know Before the Stock Market Opens

The final trading day of 2011, which will decide whether the S&P 500 ends the year up or down, leads your quick fix of company, market, economic and investing news for Friday, Dec. 30. Friday's 5 Biggest Stories

Stock futures are fluctuating. Where will the S&P 500 end the year? Place your bets now. [Bloomberg]

See if (HPQ) is in our portfolio

Raise your hand if you expected the IMF to tell Greece that a 50% haircut on its bonds wouldn't be enough. [WSJ] It's a good thing former Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) CEO Mark Hurd says it's riddled with inaccuracies, because Gloria Allred's letter detailing his alleged sexual harassment makes him look pretty bad. [Thomson Reuters] China's manufacturing activity contracted again in December. Is another reserve ratio cut not far behind? [Bloomberg] After a very ugly public mess, TCW and Jeff Gundlach's DoubleLine Capital settle their beef privately. [DealBook] Company News Only a few more days until the NYSE says "so long" to shares of bankrupt AMR Corp.(AMR). [WSJ] No surprise here: Bank of America(BAC) is on pace to be the worst performing Dow stock of the year. [Bloomberg] After detailing some its store closures, Sears Holdings(SHLD) has its debt cut further into junk status territory by Fitch Ratings. [CBS] Markets Complacency is haunting the bond market. [Global Macro Monitor] Money market funds are seeing their biggest inflows despite zero yields. [FT] Investment Strategy Hedge funds fudging their quarterly return numbers? That doesn't sound like them at all. [WSJ] Something's gotta give in 2012, but what will it be? [MarketWatch] Odds and Ends You have to love it when author Michael Lewis playfully skewers his alma mater, although this time it's not Goldman! [Bloomberg] Happy New Year! Here's hoping for a happy and healthy 2012 to you and yours. Here's the only New Year's-related video I could think of, courtesy of U2. [YouTube] .>To follow Robert Holmes on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/RobTheStreet.>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

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Money Morning Mailbag: BP Stuck in Oil Spill Spotlight While Others Downplay Disasters

The BP PLC (NYSE ADR: BP) oil spill disaster has shone a spotlight on oil industry pollution. While BP takes the brunt of public anger, no oil company has escaped the wrath of critics who are eager to expose an industry they feel shortcuts safety standards for profit.

Comments from readers with first-hand industry experience continue to pour into Money Morning's Mailbag, sharing their thoughts on the oil industry's operations.

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Kass: Bulls on Parade

A number of strategists and talking heads are coming out bullish today (you all know, the cabal that worships at the altar of price momentum).They are justifiably impressed with Mr. Market's intraday reversal on Wednesday and ability to climb through important technical markers.I have my view whether they are right or wrong, but, regardless of that, I am not sure what the value added is in getting bullish after a 70-handle rally in the S&P 500 off of the early November lows. This is especially true in a market facing numerous uncertainties and potential headwinds.Chase stock prices higher at your own risk. Price is what you pay, value is what you get, and after the sharp rally since a week ago Friday, the reward vs. risk has diminished greatly.My view is that the market is now (adjusted for the rally in the S&P 500) fairly valued (1415 on the S&P 500). I continue to view the bond market, however, as greatly over valued and believe that a short bond position will outperform a long equity position in the months ahead.That does not mean the U.S. stock market can't overreach and move higher than where I happen to think the market should be priced -- I have no concession on the market's truth -- just like it recently breached my fair market value calculation to the downside.I start the day in a market-neutral position, and I am poised to opportunistically trade in the weeks ahead.In doing so it is important -- at least, I think it is important -- to be emotionless, not to follow market spikes and to be willing to buy red and sell green.And, oh, that fiscal cliff -- I am still not fearful of a lack of compromise -- it will be resolved. I have always thought so. The question is at what cost?From my perch, the fiscal drag associated with resolution of the fiscal cliff will pose serious risks to consensus earnings estimates for 2013-2014. And, as important, it will not be anywhere near the seminal event that will unleash corporate hirings and business fixed investment.FREE for a limited time only: Get TheStreet Ratings #1 Stock Report NOW!

Tech Stocks: Tech stocks stumble as Google leads losses

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Google Inc. led a decline across the tech sector Friday, with its shares slumping following mixed quarterly financial results and the Internet giant saying it would issue a new class of nonvoting stock.

Google GOOG �gave up $26.41 a share, or 4%, to close at $624.60, and posted its biggest one-day loss since falling more than $53 a share on Jan. 20. Late Thursday, Google reported a quarterly profit of $2.89 billion, or $8.75 a share, on revenue of $10.65 billion, up from $1.8 billion, or $5.51 a share, on $8.58 billion in the same period a year ago. Excluding one-time items, Google would have earned $10.08 a share for the latest quarter.

The results topped the consensus profit estimate of $9.64 a share compiled in a survey of analysts by FactSet Research.

/quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG 669.22, -9.41, -1.39%

However, reaction the the results was muted as Google�s cost-per-clicks, or the prices paid for Google�s online advertising, fell 12% from a year ago.

Google also said it would issue a new class of nonvoting stock, which the company said was �effectively a two-for-one stock split.� Read more about Google's earnings report.

Much attention was also given to Google�s report, as it is expected to the be the last it will deliver before Facebook Inc. FB , one of its top rivals,�goes public in an IPO that could raise $5 billion for the social-media kingpin. Read Rex On Techs about Facebook as a Titanic of today's communications industry.

Along with Google, other declines came from Apple Inc. AAPL , down almost 3% to close at $605.23, as well as Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO , Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ and Intel Corp. INTC

The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP �fell 44 points to close at 3,011, and ended the week with a loss of 2.2%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX �and the Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index MSH �also ended the week with losses.

Click to Play U.S. week ahead: bank earnings

The coming week will bring earnings reports from Citigroup and Bank of America, plus retail sales and data from the Philly Fed. Laura Mandaro reports on Markets Hub. Photo: Reuters

Some gainers emerged, with Coinstar Inc. CSTR �rising $4.47 a share, or more than 7%, to close at $65.78.

Late Thursday, Coinstar raised its first-quarter and full-year revenue forecasts due to the popularity of its Redbox movie-rental business. Coinstar now expects to report revenue in a range of $567 million to $569.2 million for the quarter, up from an earlier estimate of $530 million to $555 million. The company also raised its full-year revenue estimate to a range of $2.16 billion to $2.28 billion, up from $2.08 billion to $2.25 billion.

Gains also came form Seagate Technology STX , AOL Inc. AOL �and Salesforce.com Inc. CRM .�

Tiffany, Kohl’s Down 8%, Other Retailers Follow

BLOOMBERG NEWSNot enough bling

It’s turning into Black Thursday for some retailers — black as in bad. Even as the broader market rises a fraction, shares of both Tiffany & Co. (TIF) and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) were down more than 8% in early trades, while Gap Inc. (GAP), Macy’s Inc. (M) and Target Inc. (TGT) all saw early declines.

The reason is mostly sales data.�Tiffany disappointed on third-quarter earnings and outlook, while the other sliding retailers reported a fall in November same-store sales or, in the case of Gap, an increase below expectations. You can only blame Superstorm Sandy so much, seems to be the message from investors.

It’s not necessarily all bad news. Analyst Oliver Chen at Citi still likes Tiffany, calling it a “longer-term opportunity” and holding a Buy rating and target price of $82 a share — more than $20 higher than its current price. Looking into the latest earnings for reasons to be upbeat, Chen compiles the following list:

(1) Y-o-Y inventory growth in 3Q +10.9% vs. 2Q�s +21.4% and guiding to +10% at YE but still running above revenues likely due to COGS inflation; (2) theoretical COGS deflation benefit in 4Q/2013; (3) potential perception that new guidance is low enough; (4) greater part of EPS miss due to GM/taxes and revenues still growing on an overall GAAP basis; (5) management commentary that TIF continues to see improving results in this Holiday season on easing Y-o-Y comparisons and success of new stores, new product intros, and more product-focused marketing.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

WORLD FOREX: Global Econ Fears Pummel High-Yielding Currencies – Wall Street Journal

Best SyndicationWORLD FOREX: Global Econ Fears Pummel High-Yielding Currencies
Wall Street Journal
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The hemorrhaging in commodity and emerging market currencies continued Monday as developments in both the US and Europe exacerbated the risk of a global crisis and of a deterioration …
FOREX-Dollar jumps vs high-yield currencies on debt woesReuters
FOREX-Dollar lifted by risk aversion; Aussie slumpsReuters UK
FOREX: Dollar Aims Higher On Risk Aversion, Euro Looks To ECB For HelpTheStreet.com
Best Syndication -ForexTV.com -Wall Street Journal (India)
all 117 news articles »

{forex} – Forex News

Visa, MA: GAO Sees Status Quo

Hooray for MasterCard (MA) and Visa (V), as a report by the Government Accountability Office, sent to the U.S. Department of Justice, describes just how tough it will be to change the structure of credit cards. The so-called interchange fee, the money that goes to a merchant’s bank, the card issuer, and to MA or Visa, presents a heavy burden for merchants, and it’s unregulated. Doing anything about it to lessen merchants’ burden, such as imposing caps on interchange fees, the GAO says, presents various “challenges.” Calyon Securities analysts this morning sounded positive about both MA and V, notes Briefing.com, because it seems the status quo will prevail in cards, at least for the present.

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Stocks have heaved a sigh of weariness over worsening fundamentals and widening government hostility in the past week, as a hopefulness in Washington has given way to politics.

Leaders so far this year include biotech and brokerages while laggards include banks and truckers. It appears that every chance that shareholders get these days, they dump shares.

That is not the sign of a healthy market. It is the hallmark of a market in which bears are basically just watching bulls from the sidelines and just laughing at their impotence.

If it’s not a major company reporting weak earnings, as Cisco Systems (CSCO) did tonight, it’s the president of the United States dictating the pay scale of banking executives as if that will solve everything.

When you combine weakening credit capacity at banks with hostile government overseers, mix in lousy earnings and blend with a rising number of layoff announcements, it’s just not a great environment for investment.

Of course, investors could easily ignore all the negatives if they wished and climb the proverbial wall of worry, but they’re not.

There could be a pretty sizable bear-market rally any time now, but I continue to recommend that investors remain defensive, with a bond/stock allocation of 75%/25% if you are willing to take on some risk.

Need Drugs?

The strongest leadership in the market this year is coming from the drug sector. Let’s take a quick look at one: AstraZeneca (AZN), which is one of our StrataGem positions this month.

The second largest drug maker in the United Kingdom, AZN was formed in 1999 in a merger between Astra of Sweden and Zeneca Group of the Great Britain. As with other companies in the pharmaceutical industry, AZN generates much of its revenues from its high-margin patented drugs. Its risks include the expiration of its patents and the stringent regulatory environment.

A key strategy for AZN in the past two years has been growing through acquisitions. In 2006, it acquired Cambridge Antibody Technology, which added many pipeline products. Its most recent purchase, in late 2007, was MedImmune, and it paid a stiff price at the top of the market: $15.6 billion.

As a result of the acquisition, AZN took on $14 billion in debt, raising the company’s debt to equity ratio to 83%. Going forward, chief exec David Brennan has said the company will try to grow through partnerships and collaborations.

But after rival Pfizer announced it planned to buy Wyeth last month, many of the big pharmaceutical companies, including Roche Holding and Novartis, are looking to respond with acquisitions and deals.

Biggest Risk

AZN’s biggest risk factor is…

…the expiration of its patents. AZN’s top five drugs (Nexium, Seroquel, Crestor, Arimidex, Symbicort) face patent expirations between 2009 to 2016.

These drugs generated $15 billion sales in 2007, more than half of the year’s total sales. In fact, Astra’s top drug, Nexium, which generated $1.32 billion in sales in the most recent quarter, will have to compete with generic heartburn drug Prevacid this year.

Perhaps in a sign of what to come, Astra recently had to fend off a couple generic patent-violating drugs prematurely entering the market. Late last year, it settled a lawsuit with Teva Pharmaceutical Industries regarding Teva’s generic budesonide repsules, a generic version of Astra’s Pulmicort Repsules asthma medicine.

What’s in the Pipeline?

With generic drug-producing pharmaceutical companies waiting in the periphery for many of Astra’s patents to expire, Astra is relying heavily on drugs in the pipeline.

The company will seek regulatory approval this year for four new products: lung cancer drug Zactima, painkiller PN400, blood thinner Brilinta, and a combination pill of cholesterol drug Crestor and TriLipix from Abbott Laboratories. Astra’s diabetes treatment drug Onglyza is also under review in the US and the European Union.

Other factors in AZN’s impacting performance in the months ahead include exchange rate fluctuation and labor costs. In 2008, AZN benefited from the strengthening dollar, as almost half of its sales are in the United States. As part of AZN’s 2008 plan to curb costs and increase efficiency, the company has a plan to cut 15,000 employees by 2013 to save $2.5 billion annually. Astra cut 9,000 jobs last year and recently announced 6,000 more job cuts; these cuts amounted to 23% of their workforce.

Thus far, AZN has benefited from its diverse product portfolio, but with the upcoming expiration of its patents, its performance will depend on its pipeline drugs and collaborations with other companies.

Many analysts are skeptical that revenues from these pipeline drugs will be able to cover losses in patent revenues. AZN reported a 1.4% decline in fourth-quarter net profit from the previous year to $1.25 billion. AZN projects flat sales in constant currency for 2009 but announced increased annual dividends by 10% to $2.05 a share.

The Bottom Line

AZN is a big solid major drug maker that’s paying a hefty dividend. It’s probably not going to go up a whole lot, but it is behaving much better than the market and is supported by that fat divvy. Buy on dips to play defense.

For more ideas like this, check out my Trader’s Advantage advisory service.

This article was written by Jon Markman, contributor to InvestorPlace Media. For more actionable insights likes this, visit www.InvestorPlace.com.

10 Countries Paying People to Retire

The eurozone debt crisis has had a profound effect on the world economy. Countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal received emergency bailout money to stay afloat. Meanwhile, the U.S. government currently holds more than $15.7 trillion in debt — and lawmakers cannot agree on the best way to rein it in.

Governments end up with massive debts for a number of reasons, including government pension spending. Many of the eurozone countries that have the largest debt problems are also ones with the most generous public pensions. Greece, the poster child for the eurozone crisis, needs to find 1.4 billion euros ($1.73 billion) to fund its pensions just in 2013.

When governments are faced with pension funds liabilities, they can take short-term remedies such as allowing the pension funds to go into debt or providing tax subsidies to fill the gap, says Matthias Rumpf, chief media officer for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Options such as the tax subsidies can have a sizable impact on government budgets. But no matter what short-term fixes governments take, “most of the problems on the pension side will return in the future,” Rumpf says.

Some of the countries on the list currently suffer from very weak economies. However, strong public pensions aren’t necessarily indicative of a weak economy. The #2 and #8 countries on the list have perfect AAA foreign currency credit ratings from Standard & Poor’s. Those two countries, along with country #4, also have long-term unemployment rates below 2%. Not every country breaks the bank to fund pensions either. The #10, #2 and #6 countries each spend less than 10% of GDP on pensions, while still providing generous pension rates.

24/7 Wall St. identified the top 10 countries with the most generous public pensions. Based on a recent report by the OECD, they examined pension replacement rates, which measures how effectively a pension system provides income during retirement to replace earnings prior to retirement. A pension replacement rate of 100% means an employee would continue to receive a full salary during retirement. The countries on the list promise to cover the highest portion of the salaries of those joining the workforce in 2010.

The OECD report published data for its 34 member countries, the majority of which are in Europe, but also include countries such as the U.S., Canada and Japan. The measurements only take into account pension policies as of 2010, which Rumpf says will likely change over time. In order to reduce their liability, many countries have already begun moving away from guaranteed pensions to defined contribution pensions instead, plans modeled off of a 401k or 403b in the U.S.

24/7 Wall St. considered a number of other factors to provide additional context: the retirement age and life expectancy for both men and women, net pension replacement rates (pension payouts after adjusting for taxes and other fees) and replacement rates for those making more or less than the median income, along with additional factors provided by the OECD to examine the fiscal health of countries.

These are the 10 countries paying people to retire >>

This article originally appeared on 24/7 Wall St. on July 5, 2012.

    

#10: Czech Republic
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 50.2%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 61/58.7
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 79/81.8
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 36.6%
  • Employment Rate: 65.3%

The Czech Republic manages to pay 61-year old males with a median income more than half his salary prior to retirement. The deal gets even better for women, whose retirement age of 58.7 is the fourth lowest of all of the countries measured by the OECD. Still, pension spending is 9.1% of GDP, lower than any country on the list except for Turkey. Meanwhile, the country’s debt as a percentage of GDP is 36.6%, lower than all countries on the list except for Slovenia and Luxembourg.

    

#9: Portugal
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 53.9%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 65/65
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 83/85.3
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 88%
  • Employment Rate: 65.2%

In Portugal, both men and women retire at 65, an old retirement age compared to the majority of countries on the list. But at retirement, the pension replacement rate is 53.9% for median income workers, and that number rises to 69.2% after taking into account tax benefits. But Portugal is struggling fiscally, and with sovereign debt accounting for 88% of GDP, it still has a long way to go to reach fiscal health. Meanwhile, its long-term unemployment rate for people age 15-64 is 5.64%, tied with Greece for the second-highest on this list and tied for the fourth highest among all OECD countries.

    

#8: Finland
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 57.8%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 65/65
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 82.4/86.1
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 41.7%
  • Employment Rate: 68.4%

The retirement age for both men and women in Finland is also 65, but retirees get 57.8% of their income prior to retirement. Finland currently pays out 12% of its GDP in public pensions, which is the sixth highest out of the 31 countries for which the OECD has data and well higher than the OECD average of 8.4%. But the high pension spending hasn’t necessarily taken an undue burden on the country’s overall fiscal health. Finland’s sovereign debt of 41.7% of GDP is far better than countries such as Greece and Italy.

    

#7: Slovenia
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 62.4%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 63/61
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 80.3/84.9
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 36%
  • Employment Rate: 65.8%

In Slovenia, men can retire at 63 and women at 61. When they retire, Slovenians are paid 62.4% of their salaries. It gets even better after taxes, where the net pension replacement rate is as high as 85.4% for workers making the median income. This is higher than all but four countries on the list. Despite this, Slovenia’s sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP is 36%, the lowest on this list except for Luxembourg.

    

#6: Turkey
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 64.5%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 44.9/41.0
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 75/78.8
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 42.9%
  • Employment Rate: 46.8%

The retirement age above isn’t a typo — men retire at 44.9 in Turkey and women at 41. Despite the early retirement age, the country still pays out 64.5% of a person’s salary for retirement, which on average lasts for more than 30 years for men and nearly 38 years for women. Net replacement rates are even better. Turkey’s 93.1% payout is better than all countries except for Greece and Luxembourg.

Fortunately for Turkey, the generous pensions haven’t taken a significant toll on the government. The country’s debt is only about 43%, far better than countries such as Greece and Italy. Furthermore, only 7.3% of GDP is spent on pensions, the 10th lowest out of the 31 countries for which the OECD provided data, which is more remarkable given the early retirement age. The country also spends $7,960 per person on health care, the best out of any country the OECD measured.

More from 24/7 Wall St. — 8 Things to Do If You Haven’t Planned for Retirement

    

#5: Italy
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 64.5%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 59/59
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 82/86.1
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 109%
  • Employment Rate: 56.9%

Italians can receive a cushy pension at quite an early age. At age 59, an employee making the median income — along with those making half and one-and-a-half times the median income — can begin receiving a pension

paying out 64.5% of an individual’s salary. Considering that the average woman lives to the age of 86, that is a long pension payout. Italy is the only country except for Greece to hold more debt than its GDP. The country spends 15.3% of its GDP on public pensions, more than any other country in the OECD.

    

#4: Austria
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 76.6%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 65/60
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 82.5/85.4
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 65.8%
  • Employment Rate: 72.2%

Those making the median income in government can receive more than three-quarters of their salary following retirement. That is an especially good deal for women, who are expected to live for more than 25 years after retiring at 60. This could take a hefty toll on the government, but the high employment for those aged 15-64 of 72.2% helps to keep these pensions funded. Furthermore, household disposable income of $27,541 is higher than any country on this list except for Luxembourg, which helps put Austria’s economy on stronger footing compared to some of its European peers.

    

#3: Spain
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 81.2%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 65/65
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 83/86.1
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 51.7%
  • Employment Rate: 58.4%

Despite Spain’s significant economic woes, the country manages to pay out a sizable pension to employees. Spain’s pension pays 81.2% of the salary for those making the median income, half the median income and one-and-a-half times the median income. While the retirement age is higher than in many of the countries on the list, men are expected to live 18 years after retirement age, while women are expected to live more than 21 years following retirement, leading to a sizeable government payout. This comes as Spain has been severely hampered by unemployment. More than 9% of those between ages 15-64 have been looking for a job for more than a year, more than any other country measured by the OECD.

    

#2: Luxembourg
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 87.4%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 60/60
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 80.9/84.7
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 12.6%
  • Employment Rate: 65.3%

In Luxembourg, once reaching the age of 60, citizens making the median income can begin drawing 87.4% of their income. Meanwhile, for those making only half the median income, they can take home 97.9% of their salary by age 60. Fortunately, Luxembourg’s economy is far stronger than other European countries such as Greece. Its sovereign debt is only 12.6% of GDP, the best of all countries on this list and the fourth best of countries measured by the OECD. Furthermore, household disposable income is $35,321, second only to the U.S. in the countries measured by the OECD, while household wealth is $72,644, after only the U.S. and Switzerland.

#1: Greece
  • Pension Replacement Rate: 95.7%
  • Male/Female Retirement Age: 57/57
  • Male/Female Life Expectancy: 80.9/ 84.2
  • Sovereign Debt as percentage of GDP: 147.8%
  • Employment Rate: 58.5%

Greece’s public employees get a pretty sweet deal. They get to enjoy nearly a full salary for life beginning at age 57, the earliest retirement age of all countries except for Turkey. After figuring in tax deductions, the replacement rate for those making the median income is 111.2%, the only country with net replacement rates above 100% for that income level. Since both men and women are expected to live into their 80s, the government is on the hook for a lot as evidenced by the 13.6% of GDP that is spent on public pensions — more than all countries in the OECD except for three. Government spending in Greece has definitely taken its toll. The country has $147.80 of debt for every $100 in GDP, a higher ratio than any other country on the list by a long shot.

More from 24/7 Wall St.

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Crude Plunges, Falling Well Below $100

The overall market is down after a weak April jobs report this morning, but crude oil prices are tumbling even more than stocks.

In midday trading West Texas crude futures fell $4.84, or 4.7%, to $97.70 per barrel.

Numerous oil stocks are trading lower, with explorer Southwestern Energy (SWN) falling 8%.

Employment numbers tend to forecast oil demand. With the labor participation rate falling and fewer jobs being added to the economy, U.S. oil demand could suffer in the coming months. In addition, a rule demanding traders put up more collateral for loans may be holding the market back, the Wall Street Journal noted.

Another problematic sign: the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which often trades in an inverse relationship to crude, is also down 1.1%. Clearly, the poor economic news is outweighing any benefit the stocks might get from a decrease in oil prices.

Can iTrackr Systems (IRYS) Become Bigger Than Groupon (GRPN) or LivingSocial? Amazon (AMZN)

The success of daily deals site Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) has spawned hundreds of imitators with LivingSocial and of course Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) probably being its nearest rivals but little known iTrackr Systems (OTC: IRYS) has a Groupon-like site in the social commerce space that could give both a run for their money while delivering profits to investors - if it can grab enough market share. Of course and as a pioneering local e-commerce marketplace connecting merchants to consumers by offering goods and services at a discount, Groupon (GRPN) clearly has a big first mover advantage on the competition. After all, Groupon (GRPN) already has a critical mass of merchants � meaning it can offer the most and the highest quality deals that will generate the greatest amount of Internet traffic for merchants. On the other hand and as with many other Internet business models, there are low barriers to entry and the cost of switching to a new Groupon clone like LivingSocial is minimal and other established sites like Amazon (AMZN) want in on the discount action. So what do the Groupon clones like LivingSocial and iTrackr Systems (IRYS) in particular have that could beat Groupon (GRPN) at its own game?

LivingSocial and the Other Groupon (GRPN) Clones

To start with, many of the Groupon clones are actually niche sites targeted at certain audiences or groups. For example: A New York Times article from early last year mentioned the Daily Pride targeted to gay audiences, Black Biz Hookup targeted to African-American audiences, Jdeal targeted to Jewish audiences, Gluten-Free Deals for the gluten intolerant, GroupPrice for small businesses and Conejo Deals for the residents of California�s Conejo Valley. It was even noted that a Web developer in Chennai (India) called Agriya now specializes in building and selling Groupon clone sites plus a number of daily deal aggregator sites have sprung up to cash in on online deals.

However, LivingSocial is considered to be Groupon�s primary rival and a consolidator of the group-buying sector. Although still primarily North American focus, LivingSocial now operates in 25 countries and boasts 40 million subscribers and it has a $175 million investment deal with Amazon � which has a 31% stake in the company.

In order to grab market share from Groupon, LivingSocial has been offering better terms to its merchant partners. Specifically, the Wall Street Journal reported in early February that LivingSocial had gross billings of $750 million for 2011 and it kept about 33% of these billings while sharing 67% with merchant partners. On the other hand and through September of last year, Groupon kept 41% of its gross billings but its obviously under pressure from LivingSocial and other websites.

Moreover, Investor�s Business Daily has quoted one Groupon analysts as saying that Groupon lacks the strong network effects that lock consumers into using the site while merchants tend to use every site out there to market the same deals. Otherwise, the daily deal type space is seen as growing and worth about $3 billion a year in the US with the pace of growth slowing down as the industry begins to mature.

Hence, LivingSocial has been pursuing acquisitions outside the US for growth. Last Thursday, it was announced that LivingSocial had purchased Jump On It, a two-year-old Australian site which it had bought a 31% stake in for $5 million back in November 2010 as a placeholder for a complete acquisition. And while neither LivingSocial nor Jump On It would confirm what the final sale price was, it has been said that the deal was in excess of the Yahoo!7's acquisition of group-buying site Spreets for an estimated $30 to $40 million

Finally, it should be noted that all of the other Internet heavyweights such as Facebook, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), OpenTable, Travelzoo and newly public Yelp (NYSE: YELP) have been adopting Groupon like features to cash in on the discount deal craze.

What Does iTrackr Systems (IRYS) Offer That The Other Clones Don�t Offer?

iTrackr Systems is a software company offering Internet and mobile social merchandizing technology platforms to retailers and consumers. iTrackr Systems also owns and maintains several of the largest consumer and business data files ever created that contains data about over 207 million American consumers, 87 million foreign consumers and 16 million US based businesses plus it has developed RespondQ, a software that will proactively approach visitors to a website in order to assist them with a product search and a purchase right at the right time.

However, iTrackr Systems� iTrackr.com platform has the potential to take on both Groupon and LivingSocial because it allows both local business owners and consumers alike to create and request personalized discounts on the fly. Specifically, iTrackr.com allows business owners to deploy deals to all consumer profiles based on an identified interest within a 25 mile radius of where they operate while a consumer can request a specific and personalized deal directly from any business with an iTrackr.com profile that is based on their actual in-stock inventory and within the same radius of their home address.

This means that consumers who want to save money with daily deal sites no longer need to join daily deal email lists that list deals for products or services they do not want or are from businesses that are too far away for them to take advantage of. Likewise, local neighborhood businesses that join iTrackr.com don�t need to rely on consumers making impulse purchases based on a email deal as they can now cater to what their local consumers actually want.

In other words, iTrackr.com is better positioned to allow local businesses and local consumers forge long lasting relationships � both with each other and with the iTrackr.com platform.

The Bottom Line.

It should be noted that iTrackr Systems (IRYS) is not just another Groupon (GRPN) or LivingSocial clone as its been around since 2006 developing Internet and mobile social merchandizing technology platforms. Hence, iTrackr.com has a much better chance than to beat both Groupon (GRPN) or LivingSocial and actually succeed in the increasingly crowded daily deal space.