Saturday, February 23, 2013

The S&P 500: Up 3.4% Since Jan. 2

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is having a good year, as we all know. The index is up 6.1% and so far managing to prove the naysayers wrong.

But if there’s something sobering about 2013′s gains, it’s this:

(Click image for larger version.)

That graph is from a Big Picture post yesterday asking whether we’re heading for a correction (answer: Quite possibly, but it may not be too painful.) It’s striking to see how much of this year’s gains came on Jan. 2 — take that one day out and we’re up 3.4% this year. That’s not bad, but it’s nothing to get too excited about. And that relatively shallow rise makes it more noteworthy when we then see index lose 1% or more in a day.

Will GEO Group Beat These Analyst Estimates?

GEO Group (NYSE: GEO  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 21. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict GEO Group's revenues will grow 2.1% and EPS will expand 5.1%.

The average estimate for revenue is $415.2 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.41.

Revenue details
Last quarter, GEO Group booked revenue of $411.5 million. GAAP reported sales were 4.0% higher than the prior-year quarter's $395.7 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.42. GAAP EPS of $0.25 for Q3 were 26% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.34 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 25.7%, 90 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 13.7%, 90 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 3.8%, 160 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $1.65 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.55.

Investor sentiment

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on GEO Group is outperform, with an average price target of $29.79.

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Are These CEOs Screwing You Over?

Have you ever read a news article so outrageous that you wonder if you've stumbled across The Onion, or some other satirical news site? That keeps happening to me as I look into unbelievable stories of management behavior. We've got CEOs whose pay increases as stock prices plummet, whose businesses and families are direct competitors to the companies they run, and whose shady dealings enjoy full support from complicit or feckless boards. It beggars belief, and yet it's absolutely real. If you're a shareholder, you're the last thing on their minds. You deserve better.

Lifestyles of the rich and unscrupulous
There's a common thread through these stories: Officers in charge of running these companies � and creating value for you, the shareholder � are instead treating them as private piggybanks, thereby devastating share prices.

According to hedge fund TPG-Axon's excellent backgrounder, SandRidge Energy's (NYSE: SD  ) CEO and chairman, Tom Ward, has overseen an 80% decline in the company's stock price, but has enjoyed obscene compensation over the last five years nonetheless. Part of this came through SandRidge's now defunct Executive Well Participation Plan (EWPP), by which Ward could own a working interest in SandRidge wells. This nifty little benefit was lifted directly from Chesapeake Energy's (NYSE: CHK  ) playbook, and we all know how that turned out for deposed CEO Aubrey McClendon.

The similarities should come as no surprise, given that McClendon and Ward co-founded Chesapeake. A recent Reuters analysis observes that, at both Chesapeake and SandRidge, "the CEOs have entwined their own finances with those of the publicly traded corporations they run." Chesapeake has since made improvements, but it has a long way to go.

SandRidge rightly terminated the EWPP in 2008, although the process was another thumb in the eye to shareholders. The company bought out Ward's interest for more than $67 million right as markets were collapsing. Worse still, most of the repurchased wells were natural gas, even as the company and Ward were publicly declaring SandRidge's strategy to shift toward oil.

There's more. Ward and his family have a stake in a cattle ranch and a family trust, both of which have purchased land ahead of SandRidge, then turned around and leased the land to SandRidge. There are dozens of examples of such related-party transactions, and they cost shareholders directly.

It would normally be the job of the board of directors to prevent such conflicts of interest, but SandRidge's crew seems pretty content. Maybe that's because they're making $360,000 a year. That's $75,000 more than directors at ExxonMobil, which commands a market cap more than 140 times greater than SandRidge's. According to a recent Forbes article: "Mr. Ward presides over a sycophantic board that obsequiously bows to Caesar's commands."

TPG-Axon points out that SandRidge has the lowest credit rating and the highest equity dilution among its peers. It also has almost the highest cost of debt, and the highest overhead cost. TPG-Axon traces all of this back to chronic spending and lack of financial discipline.

SandRidge isn't the only fly in the oily punchbowl. Gulfport Energy's (NASDAQ: GPOR  ) chairman of the board is also using the company to profit from other ventures. Gulfport has repeatedly purchased land in the Utica Shale from Windsor Ohio, the operating member of which is Mike Liddell. Can you guess where Liddell serves as chairman? Ding ding ding � at Gulfport Energy! Shareholders take it on the chin because Gulfport funds the purchases with equity offerings, and the payouts on Windor's side go to the unitholders, including Liddell.

Gulfport doesn't disclose how much money will actually go to Liddell through these deals. February's 8-K filing on the latest transaction uses the most confounding language possible to describe the financial relationship between Gulfport and Windsor Ohio:

Windsor Ohio is an affiliate of Wexford Capital LP ("Wexford"). Mike Liddell, Gulfport's Chairman of the Board, is the operating member of Windsor Ohio. All distributions made by Windsor Ohio are first paid to the Wexford members in accordance with their respective ownership interests in Windsor Ohio until they have received amounts equal to their respective capital contributions. Thereafter, distributions are made 90% to the Wexford members in accordance with their respective ownership interests and 10% to Mr.�Liddell.��

This language leaves us to guess at Wexford members' ownership interests in Windsor Ohio, and thus precludes calculation of Liddell's take. Wexford's website is no help. The latest land purchase in February cost $220 million, so Liddell would have gotten 10% of whatever portion of that was left after Wexford members got paid. The previous sale in December cost $372 million, of which Liddell personally received $2.9 million.

Hess (NYSE: HES  ) has just come under scrutiny as well. Thus far, I've seen no suggestion that it's up to anything nearly as questionable as SandRidge and Gulfport, but the company has some problems with an overpaid CEO and an inexperienced and complacent board of directors. Could that explain Hess' record of inefficiency? By some estimates, its Bakken wells cost a third more than those of its peers. Hedge fund Elliott Associates figures if Hess were running a tighter ship, it could be worth up to double its current value.

Investors of the world, unite!
You may feel helpless in the face of all this, but don't despair. The hedge funds I mentioned above � TPG-Axon and Elliott Associates � are activist investors. They are seeking to replace the boards at SandRidge and Hess, respectively, and TPG-Axon is gunning for Tom Ward's ouster.

The only way such investor activism can work is if enough shareholders vote for change. If you're a shareholder, you have a vote. Most shareholders never vote their shares, and that's a problem. You should always vote your shares, no matter how small your stake, because you are a part owner of the company and its management affects you.

Another thing: Read the SEC filings for your existing or potential investments. Much of the information above was right there in the companies' 8-Ks. To be fair, in SandRidge's case some details only came to light when TPG-Axon hired a private investigator, but TPG-Axon put it all in the public domain. Research is your friend.

If you're not a shareholder in these companies, you may just breathe a sigh of relief and get as far away as possible. That's a perfectly rational strategy. If you're the betting type, though, consider that there could be huge upsides for SandRidge and Hess if the activist investors are correct. TPG-Axon and Elliott Associates both believe that the companies' share prices are deeply depressed because of poor management. If they're correct, and if they prevail in their campaigns for change, then SandRidge and Hess could see significant spikes in value. It's up to you to decide if you have the stomach for that kind of gamble!

Consider one final factor. I cited several measures of management inefficiency above, including credit rating, cost of debt, and overhead costs. One company kept popping up on the opposite � i.e. efficient � end of the spectrum. EOG Resources is doing as well on these measures as SandRidge is doing poorly. That might warrant further investigation.

Energy investors would be hard-pressed to find another company trading at a deeper discount than Chesapeake Energy, thanks to CEO problems of its own. Its share price depreciated after all the negative news about the company's management and spiraling debt picture. While these issues still persist, Chesapeake has taken giant steps in the right direction. To learn more about Chesapeake and its potential, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new premium report on the company. Simply click here now to access your copy, and as an added bonus, you'll receive a full year of key updates and expert guidance as news continues to develop.

Are These CEOs Screwing You Over?

Have you ever read a news article so outrageous that you wonder if you've stumbled across The Onion, or some other satirical news site? That keeps happening to me as I look into unbelievable stories of management behavior. We've got CEOs whose pay increases as stock prices plummet, whose businesses and families are direct competitors to the companies they run, and whose shady dealings enjoy full support from complicit or feckless boards. It beggars belief, and yet it's absolutely real. If you're a shareholder, you're the last thing on their minds. You deserve better.

Lifestyles of the rich and unscrupulous
There's a common thread through these stories: Officers in charge of running these companies � and creating value for you, the shareholder � are instead treating them as private piggybanks, thereby devastating share prices.

According to hedge fund TPG-Axon's excellent backgrounder, SandRidge Energy's (NYSE: SD  ) CEO and chairman, Tom Ward, has overseen an 80% decline in the company's stock price, but has enjoyed obscene compensation over the last five years nonetheless. Part of this came through SandRidge's now defunct Executive Well Participation Plan (EWPP), by which Ward could own a working interest in SandRidge wells. This nifty little benefit was lifted directly from Chesapeake Energy's (NYSE: CHK  ) playbook, and we all know how that turned out for deposed CEO Aubrey McClendon.

The similarities should come as no surprise, given that McClendon and Ward co-founded Chesapeake. A recent Reuters analysis observes that, at both Chesapeake and SandRidge, "the CEOs have entwined their own finances with those of the publicly traded corporations they run." Chesapeake has since made improvements, but it has a long way to go.

SandRidge rightly terminated the EWPP in 2008, although the process was another thumb in the eye to shareholders. The company bought out Ward's interest for more than $67 million right as markets were collapsing. Worse still, most of the repurchased wells were natural gas, even as the company and Ward were publicly declaring SandRidge's strategy to shift toward oil.

There's more. Ward and his family have a stake in a cattle ranch and a family trust, both of which have purchased land ahead of SandRidge, then turned around and leased the land to SandRidge. There are dozens of examples of such related-party transactions, and they cost shareholders directly.

It would normally be the job of the board of directors to prevent such conflicts of interest, but SandRidge's crew seems pretty content. Maybe that's because they're making $360,000 a year. That's $75,000 more than directors at ExxonMobil, which commands a market cap more than 140 times greater than SandRidge's. According to a recent Forbes article: "Mr. Ward presides over a sycophantic board that obsequiously bows to Caesar's commands."

TPG-Axon points out that SandRidge has the lowest credit rating and the highest equity dilution among its peers. It also has almost the highest cost of debt, and the highest overhead cost. TPG-Axon traces all of this back to chronic spending and lack of financial discipline.

SandRidge isn't the only fly in the oily punchbowl. Gulfport Energy's (NASDAQ: GPOR  ) chairman of the board is also using the company to profit from other ventures. Gulfport has repeatedly purchased land in the Utica Shale from Windsor Ohio, the operating member of which is Mike Liddell. Can you guess where Liddell serves as chairman? Ding ding ding � at Gulfport Energy! Shareholders take it on the chin because Gulfport funds the purchases with equity offerings, and the payouts on Windor's side go to the unitholders, including Liddell.

Gulfport doesn't disclose how much money will actually go to Liddell through these deals. February's 8-K filing on the latest transaction uses the most confounding language possible to describe the financial relationship between Gulfport and Windsor Ohio:

Windsor Ohio is an affiliate of Wexford Capital LP ("Wexford"). Mike Liddell, Gulfport's Chairman of the Board, is the operating member of Windsor Ohio. All distributions made by Windsor Ohio are first paid to the Wexford members in accordance with their respective ownership interests in Windsor Ohio until they have received amounts equal to their respective capital contributions. Thereafter, distributions are made 90% to the Wexford members in accordance with their respective ownership interests and 10% to Mr.�Liddell.��

This language leaves us to guess at Wexford members' ownership interests in Windsor Ohio, and thus precludes calculation of Liddell's take. Wexford's website is no help. The latest land purchase in February cost $220 million, so Liddell would have gotten 10% of whatever portion of that was left after Wexford members got paid. The previous sale in December cost $372 million, of which Liddell personally received $2.9 million.

Hess (NYSE: HES  ) has just come under scrutiny as well. Thus far, I've seen no suggestion that it's up to anything nearly as questionable as SandRidge and Gulfport, but the company has some problems with an overpaid CEO and an inexperienced and complacent board of directors. Could that explain Hess' record of inefficiency? By some estimates, its Bakken wells cost a third more than those of its peers. Hedge fund Elliott Associates figures if Hess were running a tighter ship, it could be worth up to double its current value.

Investors of the world, unite!
You may feel helpless in the face of all this, but don't despair. The hedge funds I mentioned above � TPG-Axon and Elliott Associates � are activist investors. They are seeking to replace the boards at SandRidge and Hess, respectively, and TPG-Axon is gunning for Tom Ward's ouster.

The only way such investor activism can work is if enough shareholders vote for change. If you're a shareholder, you have a vote. Most shareholders never vote their shares, and that's a problem. You should always vote your shares, no matter how small your stake, because you are a part owner of the company and its management affects you.

Another thing: Read the SEC filings for your existing or potential investments. Much of the information above was right there in the companies' 8-Ks. To be fair, in SandRidge's case some details only came to light when TPG-Axon hired a private investigator, but TPG-Axon put it all in the public domain. Research is your friend.

If you're not a shareholder in these companies, you may just breathe a sigh of relief and get as far away as possible. That's a perfectly rational strategy. If you're the betting type, though, consider that there could be huge upsides for SandRidge and Hess if the activist investors are correct. TPG-Axon and Elliott Associates both believe that the companies' share prices are deeply depressed because of poor management. If they're correct, and if they prevail in their campaigns for change, then SandRidge and Hess could see significant spikes in value. It's up to you to decide if you have the stomach for that kind of gamble!

Consider one final factor. I cited several measures of management inefficiency above, including credit rating, cost of debt, and overhead costs. One company kept popping up on the opposite � i.e. efficient � end of the spectrum. EOG Resources is doing as well on these measures as SandRidge is doing poorly. That might warrant further investigation.

Energy investors would be hard-pressed to find another company trading at a deeper discount than Chesapeake Energy, thanks to CEO problems of its own. Its share price depreciated after all the negative news about the company's management and spiraling debt picture. While these issues still persist, Chesapeake has taken giant steps in the right direction. To learn more about Chesapeake and its potential, you're invited to check out The Motley Fool's brand-new premium report on the company. Simply click here now to access your copy, and as an added bonus, you'll receive a full year of key updates and expert guidance as news continues to develop.

Masimo Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

Masimo (Nasdaq: MASI  ) reported earnings on Feb. 14. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 29 (Q4), Masimo beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly and GAAP earnings per share grew.

Gross margins increased, operating margins dropped, net margins dropped.

Revenue details
Masimo logged revenue of $132.2 million. The nine analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected a top line of $128.5 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 18% higher than the prior-year quarter's $112.3 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.29. The 10 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.28 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.26 for Q4 were 13% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.23 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 66.0%, 50 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 16.9%, 1,400 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 11.4%, 90 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $133.0 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.29.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $540.1 million. The average EPS estimate is $1.21.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 168 members out of 177 rating the stock outperform, and nine members rating it underperform. Among 37 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 36 give Masimo a green thumbs-up, and one give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Masimo is hold, with an average price target of $24.69.

Is Masimo the best health care stock for you? Learn how to maximize your investment income and "Secure Your Future With 9 Rock-Solid Dividend Stocks," including one above-average health care logistics company. Click here for instant access to this free report.

  • Add Masimo to My Watchlist.

Top Stocks To Buy For 2/23/2013-5

ITT Corporation NYSE:ITT gained 0.93%, closed at $52.18 and its total trading volume during the last session was 1.62 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 6.28% while its earning per share reached $3.12.

 

Tenaris SA (ADR) NYSE:TS surged 2.08%, closed at $48.56 and its total trading volume during the last session was 1.57 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 9.54% while its earning per share reached $1.75.

 

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. NYSE:JEC increased 0.53%, closed at $43.75 and its total trading volume during the last session was 1.41 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 7.50% while its earning per share reached $1.96.

 

Fluor Corporation (NEW) NYSE:FLR advanced 0.50%, closed at $64.08 and its total trading volume during the last session was 1.40 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 11.96% while its earning per share reached $2.15.

 

AGCO Corporation NYSE:AGCO gained 2.91%, closed at $48.43 and its total trading volume during the last session was 1.25 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 3.68% while its earning per share reached $1.76.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Best Stocks To Invest In 2/20/2013-1

RAH, Ralcorp Holdings Inc.

ConAgra Foods, Inc. and RAH reported that the boards of directors of both companies have unanimously approved a definitive agreement under which ConAgra Foods will acquire RAH, the largest manufacturer of private label food in the U.S.

Under the terms of the agreement, RAH shareholders will receive $90.00 per share in cash for each outstanding share of common stock held, representing a 28.2% premium to the closing price of RAH�s common stock on November 26, 2012, and a 24.9% premium to the average closing price of Ralcorp�s common stock for the 30 trading days ending November 26, 2012.

The transaction is valued at approximately $6.8 billion, including the assumption of debt.

This transaction creates one of the largest packaged food companies in North America, with sales of approximately $18 billion annually and more than 36,000 employees. It will also position ConAgra Foods as the largest private label packaged food business in North America, with combined private label sales of approximately $4.5 billion.

RAH produces a variety of private-brand foods sold under the individual labels of various grocery, mass merchandise and drugstore retailers, and frozen bakery products sold to in-store bakeries, restaurants and other foodservice customers.

More about RAH at www.ralcorp.com.

Read Full

How Long Will Your Retirement Savings Really Last?


A new study by HSBC highlights retirement savings around the world—or lack thereof...

The modern age of medicine has lead to a longer life expectancy, something few people would complain about. But this has coincided with a global economic downturn, where unemployment levels are high, taxes are rising, and almost everyone is feeling the pinch.

This is affecting retirement savings. On average, people around the world have a 44% shortfall in their retirement savings, the HSBC study found.

And though retirees in the U.S. are having a tough time, they fall below the average. The biggest problem is in the United Kingdom.

In the U.K., the average length of retirement is 19 years. But according to the HSBC study, the average citizen expects savings to run out after just seven, covering only 37% of retirement.

Also in the top five were Egypt, France, China, and Taiwan. But Egypt also expected the shortest retirement—just eleven years.

Source: The Telegraph

The reason this issue is so pressing in the U.K. is unclear. But the study does not heavily consider workplace pensions, says Joanne Segars of the National Association of Pension Funds. This, at least, will continue to provide income even if savings do run out.

Still, a decline in retirement planning is a growing issue.

The Telegraph reports:

Figures last month from Nest, the state-provided default pension scheme, showed that seven in 10 private sector workers do not currently pay into a retirement scheme. The number of “active” pension savers in the UK fell from 12.2m at the peak in 1967 to 8.2m in 2011, according to the Office for National Statistics.

But if these people are becoming more reliant on the workplace pension system, it's a mark of poor planning that retirement savings will still run out after seven years. Retirees are likely keeping their old lifestyle without the funds to support it.

Added factors such as paying for a child's education can affect how much is saved, but unplanned factors such as caring for a family member or health issues are also something to take into account.

And unsteady work in the shaky economy has likely hurt people's ability to save lately.

 

Top Stocks For 2/19/2013-8

NW Tech Capital Inc.�s (PINK SHEETS:NWTT) Canada-based subsidiary Bermal Contracting Ltd. is nearing a supply agreement with Grass Kings Landscaping Co.

Bermal Contracting CEO Raffaella Bernar reported that negotiations with the popular new landscaper for purchase of Bermal stackable flagstone and patio flagstone are nearing their successful conclusion.

Grass Kings Landscaping Co. is a promising new landscape business based in Summerland, BC. Ms. Bernar reports that Grass Kings representatives were impressed with the Bermal flagstone. Ms. Bernar feels that the growing popularity of Grass Kings� customized landscape solutions makes it likely that the company will become a repeat Bermal customer.

Bermal is excited to expand the company�s geographic reach and find another outlet to show the market its high-quality product. In the short term, Bermal will focus on completing this supply agreement with Grass Kings, and NWTT will announce the specifics as soon as they are finalized.

WebSafety, Inc. (OTCBB: WBSI) has entered the marketplace with products designed to protect our children from predators on the Internet to texting while driving. WebSafetyPC alerts parents whenever certain dangerous words or phrases appear in your child�s online communications in an effort to protect them from cyber-predators and bullies.

WebSafety�s products contain the world�s largest word recognition library: the most comprehensive and advanced database ever compiled, capable of searching more than 9,000 words, terms and phrases that spell danger for children. whether it�s sexting, texting while driving, pornography, or predators�WebSafety is there to help you protect your children.

WebSafety�s CellSafety is the only application that works on the four major wireless carriers in the U.S. and works with the Android, Blackberry and Symbian operating systems, which constitute 54% of the smart phone market. Impressive numbers and impressive product, particularly for parents, corporations and other businesses, and even the government who wants to limit liability caused from reckless driving associated with cell phone usage.

CellSafety mobile application is now compatible with more than 60 smart phones. The Company continues to expand CellSafety�s reach. CellSafety is unique in that it literally disables texting and emailing when the user is in a vehicle moving greater than 10 mph. Not only can the cell phone user not send an email or text, but also he or she cannot even read the email or text when the car is moving.

American Greetings Corporation (NYSE:AM) will release its fiscal 2011 second quarter results on Wednesday, September 29, 2010 and will webcast its conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET that same day.

The conference call is being webcast by Thomson Reuters and can be accessed on the Investors section of the Company’s Web site. Following the live webcast, a replay will be available on the Web site until the Company’s next earnings conference call.

For more than 100 years, American Greetings Corporation has been a creator and manufacturer of innovative social expression products that assist consumers in enhancing their relationships. The Company’s major greeting card lines are American Greetings, Carlton Cards, Gibson, Recycled Paper Greetings and Papyrus, and other paper product offerings include DesignWare party goods and American Greetings and Plus Mark gift-wrap and boxed cards.

American Greetings also has the largest collection of electronic greetings on the Web, including cards available at AmericanGreetings.com through AG Interactive, Inc. (the Company’s online division). AG Interactive also offers digital photo sharing and personal publishing at PhotoWorks.com and Webshots.com and provides a one-stop source for online graphics and animations at Kiwee.com.

In addition to its product lines, American Greetings also creates and licenses popular character brands through the American Greetings Properties group. Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, American Greetings generates annual revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, and its products can be found in retail outlets worldwide.

The Tow-Along Trailer Goes Posh

Timeless Travel Trailer/Virtuance.com

The interior of a 1962 Airstream trailer customized in midcentury modern style.

Mauro Micheli has earned international renown over the last two decades as a designer of multimillion-dollar superyachts. His elegant designs for the Italian Riva line have reinvigorated a brand that has catered to celebrities such as George Clooney and Sean Connery.

One of his latest projects applies his spare, modernist aesthetic and taste for luxurious materials to a more prosaic pleasure craft: the camper trailer.

Enlarge Image

Close Airstream, Inc

The interior of an Airstream Land Yacht concept.

The U.S. recreational-vehicle industry is bouncing back after being hammered by the recession, in part due to a bump in demand for live-aboard vehicles with high-design interiors.

NYT Ponders Identity of Lone S&P Seller

The New York Times’s Edwart Wyatt and Graham Bowley followed up on Commodities Futures Trading Commission chief�Gary Gensler’s timeline of Thursday’s collapse in his appearance before the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets, when he noted that “one large participant initiated a single large transaction in the S&P e-mini contract,” a factor that may have precipitated the market rout.

The authors quote CME Group (CME), which owns the Chicago Merc on which the contract was traded, as saying it wouldn’t divulge the identity of the trader, but noting that it was a legitimate hedge, not a malicious act.

This follows the report yesterday by The Journal that Nassim Taleb’s Universa had taken a position shorting the S&P 500, though it’s not clear whether Gensler was referring to Taleb.

The Times’s Wyatt and Bowley note that Gensler, and SEC chair Mary Schapiro, offered lots of other factors that were baked into the market collapse, including the breakdown of the system by which major electronic exchanges route quotes to one another, suggesting the lone trader may in the end not have played the pivotal role.

The Fed is Creating Another Speculative Housing Market


The Federal Reserve has made it mission number one to create a low interest rate environment. The PR campaign claimed that this was to help average indebted homeowners but in reality, it had more to do with providing incredible banking leverage and also to support our massive national debt. The Fed’s balance sheet recently crossed the $3 trillion mark. 

In essence, the Fed became the bad bank without any open vote or congressional debate. That much is obvious but what isn’t certain is where things go from here. The ability of inflation to erode purchasing power is a real problem. Since the recession ended it is clear that profits in the financial sector have soared. Yet household incomes remain stagnant. 

This is important to understand and Professor Robert Shiller has talked about being cautious about the unbridled optimism now being seen in the housing market. The housing market for the last few years has been supported by massive amounts of investor money. Is the Fed simply creating a different kind of speculative fervor this time around? 

Exhibit Number One – The Fed Balance Sheet

One thing that seems to escape those that think this housing market is recovering organically is the gigantic Fed balance sheet. In essence, the Fed and government have become the housing market. When you think of a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 3.6 percent they become giddy. Would you lend someone your hard earned $500,000 for 30 years at 3.6 percent? No freaking way. And apparently, the financial sector feels the same way:

This is the issue at hand. There is little private demand here. Those that are cheering on this kind of growth might as well take a trip to the former USSR yet ironically, these people claim to be “free market” thinkers. What we are essentially doing is favoring housing over other sectors of our economy. If we are going to subsidize something so deeply, better we do it in fields that will make us competitive globally and not a McMansion for a shrinking household. It is all fabricated and the Fed has not even adjusted its balance sheet since the recession ended way back in the summer of 2009 (in fact it has grown to record $3 trillion). Most of the current growth is coming from mortgage backed security (MBS) purchases. That is, the QE3 program directly targeted at the housing market that is now being engulfed by the same banks the Fed bailed out. The intent is to keep rates low although we might be hitting a lower bound here:

Rates on 30 year fixed rate mortgages have started creeping up although they are still at historical lows. Even in 2008 when rates were low we were at 6 percent. The problem however is that the market is now conditioned to these low rates. The Fed has to keep inflating its balance sheet to keep the gig going. Why? No other person in their right mind would fund a $500,000 loan at 3.6 percent especially when it is tied to housing. Since cheap money is abundant, we are now seeing unintended consequences where 20 to 30 percent of all purchase activity for the last few years has come from investment demand. This is a short-term phenomenon. When we say short-term we mean three to five years. People simply suffer from investment amnesia. We have flippers diving in head first in places in California and do not remember folks getting burned in 2008 or 2009. Those 5,000,000 completed foreclosures never really happened and happy days are here again. Who needs income growth when you have good old fashion leverage?

The Fed and unintended speculative fever

All of this action does come at a cost. We are seeing for example high yield bonds (in other words, junk bonds) pulling in very low rates for the associated risk. This is the issue of living in a negative rate environment. Large funds are buying up properties as rentals which tells you the hunger for yield is dramatic when you see Wall Street coming to Main Street to be your landlord.

It is safe to say that 2013 will not be like 2012 in regards to the blistering housing market. A couple of reasons for this:

-1.  Low rates are unlikely to make any significant moves lower.

-2.  Investor yields are being crushed with the rush to buy (harder to find deals).

-3.  Ironically with prices up, more people are in a positive equity position so they can actually sell if needed.

The overall trend plays out like this:

The most recent median price is $193,800. This is up from $173,500 one year ago and down from the peak of $275,000 reached in June of 2006. You have to ask yourself how is it that the median price went up $20,000 in one year when US household incomes did not go up? All of this is coming from the Fed’s added leverage and speculative demand rushing into the market where inventory is at historical lows.

Some of the positive signs however include the following:

-1.  Household formation is picking up. However, this is likely to pull many younger people into rentals first before purchasing homes.

-2.  Housing starts are picking up. Good since supply is so low but a good number of these are for multi-family units.

-3.  Household debt moving lower. Although more people are leveraging up with low down payment products like FHA insured loans.

It is clear that all of this hot money is causing unintended consequences. Inflation is hitting in many areas including higher education, health care, and energy. Just look at gas prices in Los Angeles:

We had a post about the true cost of commuting in California and it was interesting how many people justified commutes of 1 to 1.5 hours each way.

*Post courtesy of Doctor Housing Bubble.

 

Dow Falls, a Few Components Spared

Yesterday was turning into an OK day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) . Despite mixed news from the Producer Price Index and housing starts, the index was holding strong above 14,000 -- that is, until the Fed released the minutes from its most recent FOMC meeting. Then the Dow nosedived like a kamikaze, losing 108 points before the closing bell and another 56 points so far this morning.

The Fed's January meeting covered the current use of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, with the aim of an increase in job creation. What the minutes revealed was a concern by officials that the cost of the current QE policy is too great and that the Fed may have to slow its current bond repurchase program before the hiring boost it was intended to deliver arrives. Members of the meeting also worried that the "easy-money" environment created by QE could create instability in the financial sector, and be difficult to reverse. Wall Street didn't take kindly to the news and investors were notably shaken up -- leading to the drop.

We continue to see the effects of yesterday's news this morning, as minor news can send stocks barreling down. Based on yesterday's housing data release, which said that housing starts had slowed but that single-family home construction was up in January and permits were at the highest level seen since 2008, Home Depot (NYSE: HD  ) is down more than 2% this morning. Both it and its competitor�Lowe's�have been downgraded to "hold" by analysts.

Tech giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC  ) is also down by 2.29% at the time of this writing. Though there hasn't been a great deal of news this morning, one bit may have investors wary in a time of uncertainty. Intel has released new advertisements stating that its first dual-core phone processor chip, Clover Trail+, is superior to ARM processors. While this may in fact be true, consumers won't be able to test the product and therefore cannot substantiate the claims -- unless they live in Asia, that is. At a time when Intel is under pressure in its server segment, bravado may not be appreciated by investors.

There are some winners coming out of the woodwork this morning, however. After announcing earnings this morning, retail behemoth Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) is up 3.09% after surprising analysts with higher-than-expected earnings. Though the company reported a slower holiday season than expected and increased pressure on consumer purse strings from increased taxes, the company's own tax rate was reduced in large part by tax credits. While there was an improvement in Wal-Mart's results, there's no sign that the Wal-Mart Indicator is in effect, since it was tax-related improvements that boosted results.

Boeing (NYSE: BA  ) continues its ascent this morning, up 0.51% at 11:45 a.m. ET on the news that it will be submitting a permanent fix to its 787 Dreamliner battery issue to the FAA for approval. News was released yesterday that suggested that the aircraft's lithium ion battery cells were too close together, causing the battery to overheat and in some cases burst into flames. With FAA approval, the aircraft manufacturer would be one step closer to returning its Dreamliner fleet to the air, and investors to its doors.

With great opportunity comes great responsibility. For�Boeing, which operates as a major player in a multitrillion-dollar market, the opportunity is absolutely massive. However, the company's execution problems and emerging competitors have investors wondering whether Boeing will live up to its shareholder responsibilities. In this�premium research report, two of the Fool's best industrial industry minds have collaborated to provide investors with the key, must know issues around Boeing. They'll be updating the report as key news hits, so make sure to claim a copy today by�clicking here now.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Top Stocks To Buy For 2/16/2013-2

PetSmart, Inc (NASDAQ:PETM) achieved its new 52 week high price of $48.57 where it was opened at $47.76 up 1.39 points or 2.98% by closing at $47.98. PETM transacted shares during the day were over 1.04 million shares however it has an average volume of 1.07 million shares.

PETM has a market capitalization $5.41 billion and an enterprise value at $5.55 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 0.92 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 4.68. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 4.55% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 7.91%.

The company made a return on asset of 11.90% in past twelve months and return on equity of 22.96% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $5.89 billion gaining $51.40 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 7.00% holding 26.40% quarterly earnings growth.

According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $271.01 million cash in hand making cash per share at 2.40. The total of $564.09 million debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 48.80. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 2.04 and book value per share was 10.25.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 8.52% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price $44.04 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price $43.42.

PETM holds 112.74 million outstanding shares with 104.95 million floating shares where insider possessed 0.50% and institutions kept 91.60%.

Neenah Paper Beats Analyst Estimates on EPS

Neenah Paper (NYSE: NP  ) reported earnings on Feb. 20. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Neenah Paper met expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew significantly. Non-GAAP earnings per share increased significantly. GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Margins grew across the board.

Revenue details
Neenah Paper recorded revenue of $192.6 million. The two analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ hoped for revenue of $194.8 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 16% higher than the prior-year quarter's $165.5 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.60. The three earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ anticipated $0.57 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.60 for Q4 were 28% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.47 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.83 for Q4 were 80% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.46 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 19.6%, 70 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 9.0%, 70 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 7.1%, 240 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $200.7 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.79.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $841.3 million. The average EPS estimate is $2.91.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 112 members out of 125 rating the stock outperform, and 13 members rating it underperform. Among 43 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 41 give Neenah Paper a green thumbs-up, and two give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Neenah Paper is outperform, with an average price target of $35.00.

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  • Add Neenah Paper to My Watchlist.

Who Owns JPMorgan Chase?

When it comes to investing, going with the crowd will rarely if ever make you rich. If your objective is to buy low and sell high, then, in the words of Warren Buffett, you must be "greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." This is the foundation of contrarian investing.

But there's a twist. To be a contrarian investor, you must first know what to be contrary to. And this is where the SEC's invaluable EDGAR database comes in. Every quarter companies and large institutional investors are required to disclose their equity holdings. By patching these together, we can get a fuller picture of a particular stock's popularity.

What follows, in turn, is a look at the principal owners of JPMorgan Chase's (NYSE: JPM  ) outstanding common stock.

A broad overview
As you can see in the following chart, the majority of JPMorgan's nearly four billion shares are held by institutional investors. Company insiders, including board members and corporate executives, own a further 0.58% of the outstanding common stock. And the public at large owns the remaining 24%.

Source: S&P's Capital IQ.

Institutional investors
Digging in a big further, the largest institutional stake holders in JPMorgan are asset managers. Bond giant BlackRock� (NYSE: BLK  ) tops the list at 6.3% ownership, followed by The Vanguard Group, the asset management arm of State Street (NYSE: STT  ) , Wellington Management, and Fidelity Investments.

Source: S&P's Capital IQ.

The largest buyers have been Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) and BlackRock, which have recently acquired 12.9 million and 11.9 million shares of common stock, respectively. Meanwhile, the two largest sellers of late have been Putnam LLC and Mason Capital Management, which have disposed of 11.8 million and 8.1 million shares, respectively.

Biggest insiders
Turning to inside investors, far and away the largest inside owner is James Crown, the president of Henry Crown and Company and a JPMorgan director. The second largest holder is CEO Jamie Dimon, who has amassed nearly six million shares in the bank. And the third largest holder is Ina Drew, the former chief investment officer who lost her job as a result of the London Whale scandal.

Source: S&P's Capital IQ.

The Foolish bottom line
While insider and institutional ownership together represent only one metric, it's nevertheless an important one. Beyond hinting at the overall market's sentiment toward a stock, it also gives investors insight into the confidence of the people best positioned to predict a company's current state and future success.

Want to learn more about JPMorgan Chase?
With big finance firms still trading at deep discounts to their historic norms, investors everywhere are wondering if this is the new normal, or if finance stocks are a screaming buy today. The answer depends on the company, so to help figure out whether JPMorgan is a buy today, I invite you to read our premium research report on the company. Click here now for instant access!

Is It Time to Sell Seadrill?

There's a lot to like about Seadrill (NYSE: SDRL  ) ; but, in this video, Jim Mueller gives us three things to watch for as warnings signs to sell.� First, Seadrill is expanding its rig fleet rapidly and incurring significant debt doing so. Second, utilization rates need to at least stay level, and preferably increase. If rates start to decrease, this could be trouble for the company. Third, Seadrill is ordering new rigs without a guarantee that they will be used once the rigs are built. If oil prices drop or demand for deep rigs declines, Seadrill could be in for a rough time, and investors should seriously consider selling.

If you're an energy investor looking for exciting opportunities, then you should look into one of the more intriguing plays in the space: Seadrill. To learn more about the strengths and weaknesses of this company, as well as what to expect from Seadrill going forward, be sure to check out this�brand-new premium report�put together by one of our top Stock Advisor analysts. Click here to�get started.

La-Z-Boy Q3 profit rises 14%

La-Z-Boy Inc.'s LZB fiscal third-quarter earnings rose 14% as the furniture company reported higher revenue and saw its retail segment swing back to profitability.

Shares rose 10% to $17 in recent after-hours trading as results beat analysts' expectations. The stock is up 10% in the past 12 months.

"We continue to experience strong performance and improvement in our retail business, leading to profitability this quarter while further validating our integrated retail strategy," Chairman and Chief Executive Kurt L. Darrow said.

Looking ahead, Mr. Darrow said the company is "quite pleased" with the trends it is seeing in its business, noting the improving housing market, coupled with what is historically La-Z-Boy's strongest volume period, makes the company "cautiously optimistic as we move into the fourth quarter."

La-Z-Boy, known for its namesake recliners, has seen several quarters of sales growth despite a sluggish economy, before revenue turned negative in the fiscal fourth-quarter, owning to an added week of sales in the year-earlier period. The company returned to sales growth in more recent quarters but faced higher expenses tied to incentive compensation and increased marketing.

For the quarter ended Jan. 26, La-Z-Boy reported earnings of $17.1 million, or 32 cents a share, up from $15 million, or 28 cents a share, a year earlier. The latest period included four cents a share relating to gains on the sale of investments and a related tax benefit.

Revenue rose 10%, to $349.1 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had recently forecast earnings of 23 cents on revenue of $337.8 million.

Gross margin widened to 32.5% from 31.5%.

The retail segment, which includes La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries stores, swung to an operating profit of $2.67 million from a year-earlier loss of $646,000.

Same-store written sales, which La-Z-Boy tracks as an indicator of retail activity, rose 12%.

Meanwhile, the wholesale upholstery segment, the main contributor to the top line, saw revenue rise 12% to $279.9 million.

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Will Wright Medical Group Beat These Analyst Estimates?

Wright Medical Group (Nasdaq: WMGI  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 21. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Wright Medical Group's revenues will wane -5.1% and EPS will shrink to a loss.

The average estimate for revenue is $120.4 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.02.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Wright Medical Group reported revenue of $110.4 million. GAAP reported sales were 6.6% lower than the prior-year quarter's $118.2 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at -$0.04. GAAP EPS were -$0.14 for Q3 against -$0.42 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 68.2%, 120 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -3.6%, 410 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -4.8%, 880 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $480.6 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.21.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 43 members out of 61 rating the stock outperform, and 18 members rating it underperform. Among 16 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 11 give Wright Medical Group a green thumbs-up, and five give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Wright Medical Group is outperform, with an average price target of $22.08.

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  • Add Wright Medical Group to My Watchlist.

Calls for Crowdfunding Rules Grow Louder

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  • Risk-Based Oversight of Investment Advisors Even if the SEC had a larger budget and more resources, it is doubtful that the Commission would have the resources to regularly examine all RIAs. Therefore, the SEC is likely to continue relying on risk-based oversight to fulfill its mission of protecting investors.
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Crowdfunding advocates, small businesses and venture capitalists held an all-day vigil in Washington on Tuesday with visits to Capitol Hill, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the White House to push for “immediate action” on rules that would make equity- and debt-based crowdfunding a reality in the U.S.

During a media briefing held at the National Press Club in Washington, Karen Kerrigan, president and CEO of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council, who hosted the gathering, said “the capital needs of entrepreneurs remain just as critical as when the JOBS Act was signed last April.” Now, she said, “the SEC must take the next step and finalize its rulemakings so the JOBS Act can fulfill its promise of helping to fund promising businesses, and bring the economy back to robust levels of growth and job creation.”

But Candace Klein, co-chairwoman of the Crowdfund Intermediary Regulatory Advocates (CFIRA) and CEO of SoMoLend, a crowdfunding company, said that despite the fact the crowdfunding industry has had nearly 30 meetings with SEC staff as well as the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and SEC staff is “working diligently” and has “come far” in drafting proposed crowdfunding rules, there is no “proposed timeline” on when the SEC would release those rules.

Klein said she believed the proposed rules were ready to be released for public comment, and encouraged current SEC Chairwoman Elisse Walter to act. If the proposal went out soon, there could be “some type of implementation” of the crowdfunding rules by “the fourth quarter,” Klein predicted. However, she noted the nomination of Mary Jo White to be the next head of the agency puts a further question mark on that date.

With fraud as the SEC and state regulators' main concern about crowdfunding, Klein said that the crowdfunding industry has been “proactive to provide investor education and in tracking ‘bad boy’ behavior.” She noted that the industry has looked at other countries where crowdfunding is legal and has adopted their best practices. “We have put together a best-practices guide. Everyone keeps talking about fraud, but with debt- and equity-based crowdfunding the cases of fraud in other countries is quite low,” she said. “We are working with the SEC to help parse out the differences between fraud and failure.”

FINRA issued on Jan. 10 a voluntary Interim Form for Funding Portals designed for prospective crowdfunding portals under the JOBS Act.

The North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) fired off a warning in December that crowdfunding’s presence on the Internet had exploded in recent months and that NASAA saw a big potential for abuse.

Nearly 8,800 domain names are now using the term “crowdfunding,” up from less than 900 at the beginning of the year, NASAA said.

Helix Energy Solutions Group Earnings Are on Deck

Helix Energy Solutions Group (NYSE: HLX  ) is expected to report Q4 earnings on Feb. 20. Here's what Wall Street wants to see:

The 10-second takeaway
Comparing the upcoming quarter to the prior-year quarter, average analyst estimates predict Helix Energy Solutions Group's revenues will drop -13.0% and EPS will drop -50.0%.

The average estimate for revenue is $344.5 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.33.

Revenue details
Last quarter, Helix Energy Solutions Group reported revenue of $336.2 million. GAAP reported sales were 9.7% lower than the prior-year quarter's $372.5 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
Last quarter, non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.35. GAAP EPS of $0.14 for Q3 were 67% lower than the prior-year quarter's $0.43 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Recent performance
For the preceding quarter, gross margin was 30.2%, 380 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 15.8%, 1,100 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 4.4%, 800 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead

The full year's average estimate for revenue is $1.44 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.87.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 915 members out of 953 rating the stock outperform, and 38 members rating it underperform. Among 247 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 240 give Helix Energy Solutions Group a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Helix Energy Solutions Group is outperform, with an average price target of $21.50.

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  • Add Helix Energy Solutions Group to My Watchlist.

Sonic Automotive Beats Analyst Estimates on EPS

Sonic Automotive (NYSE: SAH  ) reported earnings on Feb. 20. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Sonic Automotive missed estimates on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. Non-GAAP earnings per share grew significantly. GAAP earnings per share expanded significantly.

Gross margins shrank, operating margins grew, net margins grew.

Revenue details
Sonic Automotive notched revenue of $2.19 billion. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ foresaw revenue of $2.30 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 5.7% higher than the prior-year quarter's $2.07 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.53. The nine earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.50 per share. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 for Q4 were 23% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.43 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.55 for Q4 were 57% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.35 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 14.4%, 30 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 3.0%, 40 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 1.4%, 40 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $2.07 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.42.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $9.14 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.98.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 83 members out of 118 rating the stock outperform, and 35 members rating it underperform. Among 44 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 37 give Sonic Automotive a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Sonic Automotive is hold, with an average price target of $22.38.

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  • Add Sonic Automotive to My Watchlist.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Google Users: Beware of Account Hijackers

While Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG  ) Gmail has drastically improved its filtering over the years -- fewer than 1% of spam emails make it into inboxes -- spammers have become more sophisticated in their attacks. To improve their chances of bypassing spam filters and reaching customers' inboxes, spammers now send obnoxious emails from a contact's account. In effect, spammers have become account hijackers. �

Account hijackers buy access to people's email accounts. On the black market, cyber criminals -- who have stolen a databases of usernames and passwords from websites -- sell personal information to these hijackers. As usernames and passwords are often the same across different accounts, attackers attempt to break into these accounts across the web. In one instance, Google saw a single attacker steal passwords to break into a million different Google accounts every single day, for weeks at a time.�

However, Google has dramatically reduced the number of compromised accounts by 99.7% since the peak of these hijackings in 2011 by checking for more than�just a password. The company's system performs risk analyses on over 120 variables to ensure that the sign-in comes from the owner. If the sign-in is suspicious or risky, Google asks a few simple questions about your account.

Google says users can help keep spammers out by using a strong, unique password for their Google account, upgrading their account�to 2-step verification, and updating the recovery options�with a secondary email address and phone number.

More Expert Advice from The Motley Fool

As one of the most dominant Internet companies ever, Google has made a habit of driving strong returns for its shareholders. However, like many other web companies, it's also struggling to adapt to an increasingly mobile world. Despite gaining an enviable lead with its Android operating system, the market isn't sold. That's why it's more important than ever to understand each piece of Google's sprawling empire. In The Motley Fool's new premium research report on Google, we break down the risks and potential rewards for Google investors. Simply click here now to unlock your copy of this invaluable resource, and you'll receive a bonus year's worth of key updates and expert guidance as news continues to develop.

Genuine Parts Increases Sales but Misses Revenue Estimate

Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC  ) reported earnings on Feb. 19. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), Genuine Parts missed estimates on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. GAAP earnings per share grew significantly.

Gross margins contracted, operating margins increased, net margins increased.

Revenue details
Genuine Parts logged revenue of $3.12 billion. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted revenue of $3.19 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were the same as the prior-year quarter's.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $1.03. The nine earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted $0.93 per share. GAAP EPS of $1.03 for Q4 were 20% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.86 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 29.2%, 40 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 8.1%, 110 basis points better than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 5.1%, 60 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $3.34 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $1.00.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $13.74 billion. The average EPS estimate is $4.35.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a four-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 347 members out of 368 rating the stock outperform, and 21 members rating it underperform. Among 141 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 134 give Genuine Parts a green thumbs-up, and seven give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Genuine Parts is hold, with an average price target of $65.67.

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Sunday, February 17, 2013

Urgent: Michael Kors Earnings Update and What to Watch

Earlier this week,�Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS  ) announced market-stunning earnings for its third quarter. Earnings per share beat Wall Street estimates by 40%, coming in at $0.64 against an estimated $0.40. The shocker came from Kors' continued pressure on comparable-sales growth, which jumped up 41% in the quarter. Not only did that make forecasters look silly -- include me in that list -- but it also handily beat out the company's own expectations for mid-20% growth.

With its foot firmly planted on the accelerator, it appears that any guess is as good as another for how high Kors can fly. Of course, the other side of that growth coin is the fear that Kors' wings are thick with wax, which is going to melt as it floats ever closer to the sun. Once again, any stumble from the company is going to have a dramatic impact on the stock, but that doesn't mean that a stumble is coming anytime soon. Here's a rundown of the most recent earnings release, and what investors should look for over the next few months.

Third-quarter knockout
Right now, Kors is making everyone else look bad. At the end of 2012, holiday sales were up about 1%, with many companies falling flat on their faces. Analysts have said that the slow growth was the worst performance that the U.S. has seen since 2008. That sound bite quickly found its way into earnings calls, with management hemming and hawing about growing 3% even in a tough marketplace (if one more CEO brings up the fiscal cliff I might give up on investing altogether). Then along comes Kors with its 70% increase in revenue and suddenly people start to look silly.

Sales didn't come at the expense of the bottom line, either, with Kors refusing to play the markdown game just to get feet in the door. Gross margins increased year over year, up about a percentage point to 60.4%. While that increase was largely driven by the company holding fast on pricing, it also saw a favorable shift in product mix to higher-margin items.

Looking way down the road to 2014, Kors announced that it was going to help boost sales even more by bring its e-commerce business in-house. Right now, Neiman Marcus runs the online business, and while the company is happy enough with the relationship, it's been talking for a while about bringing it all back under one roof. That's great news for the long run, and should really help the company address its omnichannel goal of having one Kors experience wherever customers shop.

In addition, Kors management has said that 40% of the customers who visit its site are from international locations that don't have a store and can't be shipped to. That's a great indicator of the brand's international strength and potential. But that's all the long game -- what should investors be watching this year?

What the future holds
One of the follow-on successes of having a luxury brand is that people want to buy everything they can with your name on it. Coach (NYSE: COH  ) and Tiffany have made all sorts of lower-price-point items because the demand is so great. In this last quarter, Kors saw a surprise upswing in women's ready-to-wear clothing that came from the demand for the brand. Look for the company to expand the ready-to-wear line in its retail stores to draw in additional foot traffic.

While ready-to-wear is a surprise growth point for the company, it's also focusing on European expansion. The company has had a good response in Europe among vacationers from all over the world, and the locals seem interested, too. European stores managed a 58% comparable-sales increase last quarter, and between retail and wholesale, European revenue increased 112%. That market is going to continue to be a hot one for Kors, and the vacationer traffic should provide the company with an inroad to some of those markets that it doesn't have stores in yet. Watch for that comp rate to increase over this year.

This past year European revenue accounted for 9% of total revenue, which is a 2-percentage-point increase from the same quarter last year. While the company doesn't have a public target, I'd be surprised if Europe didn't account for close to 15% of total revenue by this time next year. It's the company's fastest-growing region.

If it can manage to pull in additional traffic from ready-to-wear and the new stores, then it should have no problem beating its internal comp sales target again. For the second quarter in a row, management predicted mid-20% comp sales growth in the coming quarter. While that would still be leagues ahead of Coach and Tiffany -- which were flat and down slightly, respectively,�in the U.S. last quarter -- it would be a dramatic drop from 40% growth. Right now one of my biggest fears is that management's estimates are so pessimistic that they're becoming meaningless. At some point this year I'd like to see them be in the right ballpark for estimated growth.

Finally, look for Kors to start pushing on its celebrity status to gain customers from Coach and other handbag makers. In Wednesday's New York Fashion Week presentation, Kors presented to a star-studded crowd. As those celebrities start to pick up more and more Kors pieces -- Michelle Obama wore Kors to the inauguration this year -- �it's only going to increase its status as an aspirational brand.

The bottom line
Kors continues to be a difficult stock to read, as evidenced by its recent surprise. In part, it's flying higher than anyone expected and in part it's having a hard time making internal predictions work. That means that forecasting success is getting more difficult. I like what the company is doing with its branding and I like the rapid expansion it's undertaking while the brand is hot. Having said that, a P/E of 36 is well above the retail average and companies like Coach can be had for less than 15 right now. It's difficult to bite the bullet and just buy. I'll certainly keep watching, though. This is a fun company if nothing else.�

Michael Kors is one of today's hottest high-end fashion brands, and that's translated into one of the best-performing stocks in retail -- since its debut on the market in late 2011, the share price has more than doubled. But with all that growth, has the stock finally become too expensive, or is there still room left to run? The Motley Fool's new premium report on Michael Kors gives investors all the information they need to make the right decision. We cover the key must-watch areas, opportunities, and threats to the company that investors need to know. To claim your copy, simply click here now for instant access.