Monday, December 31, 2012

Amazon Stock Heading To $233 As Kindle Catches Fire

 

Trying to make the most of the Christmas shopping season, Amazon recently launched its �Best of Digital� store. [1] The store features Amazon-recommended goodies including TV shows, movies and mobile apps.

It seems that the company is leaving no stone unturned in squeezing the maximum out of the Kindle Fire mania. After a record-breaking Black Friday, Amazon could set new benchmarks for Christmas time shopping as well.

See our full analysis for Amazon�s stock here

Kindle Fire Updated as Well

Christmas day clocks in as the biggest day for digital sales for Amazon, with the December 26 � December 30 period reportedly averaging three times more than Amazon�s weekly sales for the remaining year. The company also chose this strategic time to release the latest update on the Kindle Fire, [2] which had seen some complaints from users on bugs.

Amazon has sold more than 1 million tablets for each of the last three consecutive weeks [3] .

We have a revised price estimate of $233 for Amazon�s stock, which is currently around 30% above the current market price.

Understand How a Company�s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis

Notes:

  • Amazon Press Releases: Amazon Announces Best of Digital Store [?]
  • Amazon Releases Update for Kindle Fire [?]
  • Amazon Press Releases: Customers Purchasing Kindles at Rate of More Than 1 Million per Week For Third Straight Week [?]
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    Canyon Services Group: The Undervalued And Unknown Two-Bagger From The True North

    The U.S. investing world is all too familiar with the rise of hydraulic fracturing technology and its breakthrough allowing the U.S. to re-emerge as a significant oil and gas producer. What people might not realize is that Canada is experiencing its own shale revolution thanks to hydraulic fracturing. There has been a major shift over the last couple of years from vertical drilling to horizontal drilling.

    As in the U.S., there are smaller Canadian oil and gas service companies that provide investors with exposure to hydraulic fracturing. These companies include Calfrac Well Service (CFWFF.PK), Trican Well Services (TOLWF.PK), GasFrac Energy Service (GSFVF.PK), and Canyon Services Group (CYSVF.PK). Canyon Services appears to be the most undervalued of the Canadian service companies.

    Margins

    When comparing the Canadian pure play fracking companies, Canyon Services has superior profit margins by almost 2-to-1 across the board. Management has controlled costs as they dramatically increased revenue while continuing to expand margins, despite a debt-free balance sheet. This is excluding the second quarter falling in Canadian rainy season, which almost shuts down drilling until early June. Canyon Services not only holds its own against its U.S. peers, namely C & J Energy (CJES), RPC Inc. (RES), and Key Energy Services (KEG). It has twice as impressive profit margins, excluding C & J Energy. (We are also long C & J Energy). Canyon Services is one of our favorite picks in the industry based on projected earnings and a 5% dividend.

    Operating Area

    Canyon Services currently operates in the Western Canadian Shale Basin as well as the Canadian side of the Bakken Shale, which is all the rage in the U.S. oil sector. These plays require multistage fracturing, which help keep rates high for Canyon and in turn allow them to maintain their healthy margins. This will likely increase as drilling picks up in the second half of 2012 with the Duvernany Shale play ramping up production.

    Financial Summary

    Canyon Services have come a long way in the last four years with respect to the growth rates across the board. The company's rapid growth has not resulted in a contraction of operating or net profit. The company boasts impressive 22% net income margins and 41% EBITDA as well.

    Canyon Services is starting the year with 175,000 HP and expected to start the third quarter with 225,000 HP. Canyon is currently operating at 100% utilization, so we have modeled that into our projected earnings model. The first model has a 22% profit margin and the second has a 25% profit margin. During the second quarter, Canyon will experience a loss due to the rainy season. It is difficult to project the second-quarter earnings due to the rainy weather described above, so we used last year's second-quarter results. Higher P/E multiples were used due to the rising awareness of Canyon's value creation as the investing community realizes that earnings will be better than what is currently expected.

    Closing Thoughts

    Canyon Services, like the overall energy services sector, is significantly undervalued. There is definitely a glut of natural gas in the U.S.; however, this should start to rebound with projects in the works that will export natural gas and bring some price stability to the U.S. market. That aside, the oil boom in the U.S. and Canada is still in the beginning stages of a long bull market. The demand for energy services in the near term will prove to be outpacing supply. We expect Canyon Services to be trading above $30 dollars within the next 12 months. This is a result of maintained margins and multiple expansion for the sector. Throw in a healthy dividend, with room to raise it throughout the year, and the future looks bright for this under-the-radar play on hydraulic fracturing.

    Smaller energy services companies like Canyon Services and C & J Energy will provide more upside than the major energy service companies, such as Halliburton (HAL), Schlumberger (SLB), and Baker Hughes (BHI), while sharing the downside.

    Disclosure: I am long CYSVF.PK.

    Lattice Cuts Q4 Rev View on Comms Weakness

    Shares of programmable chip vendor Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) are down 23 cents, or 5.4%, at $4 after the company this afternoon said it cut its revenue outlook for this quarter to a decline of 6% to 8% from prior expectations for revenue to rise or fall by 2% from the prior quarter, citing weakness in communications equipment.

    The company reiterated a view for gross margin of 53% in the quarter, plus or minus 2%.

    The reduced estimates “reflect weakness in the communications market combined with continued weakness in the worldwide distribution channel,” Lattice said.

    Shares of Lattice competitor Altera (ALTR) are unchanged in late trading at $33.04, and shares of Xilinx (XLNX) are also unchanged at $35.69.

    U.S. vs. China: Divergent Economic Paths

    In the history of finance, two countries as interdependent as the United States and Chinese have rarely taken such divergent macroeconomic paths.

    The United States

    The Fed published Friday evening the latest consumer credit statistics, which were really abysmal!

    As you can see in the graph, below, the $17.50 monthly plunge in November is the worst ever recorded.

    This illustrates that, despite all the Fed's efforts to reflate the economy, banks are still not lending (hike in reserves deposited at the Fed by commercial banks) and consumers aren't borrowing either (consistent with de-leveraging process.

    In such a situation, we still see no inflationary danger (core PCE) in the US, and thus no risk of the Fed hiking key interest rates in 2010, and we aren't counting on 2011 either: just check out the December 2011 Fed Funds Futures at 97.70, i.e. a yield of 2.30%.

    And Sunday evening's comments in Shanghai by reputed hawk, St Louis Fed President, Bullard, also go in the same direction:

    • The Fed's liquidity programs (are) not an inflationary concern
    • Interest rates may remain low for quite some time
    • Any risks of igniting inflation by mishandling the Fed's exit from its support policies lie two to four years in the future
    • Markets should be focusing on quantitative monetary policy rather than interest rate policy.

    China

    Meanwhile, China, which has been riding an unprecedented, administrative credit wave (600bn yuan for the first week of 2010!), continues to post incredible statistics, like the foreign trade figures this morning.

    Exports have practically made up for the entirety of ground lost since the beginning of the crisis (+100% since February 2009).

    But, above all, imports have also climbed to a new high, overtaking those of June 2008, at $112.30bn. They have indeed rebounded 118% since the dip of January 2009.

    Still trade balance continues to show a strong surplus of $18.45bn, making it higher than that preceding the pre-crisis period from 2004 to June 2008. Such a performance will undoubtedly reignite the debate about the needed revaluation of the Renminbi!

    In any case, as we have repeated time and time again in these lines, according to Mundell's incompatibility triangle, if China wants to maintain its currency peg, it will have to take much more coercive measures to control capital movements unless is wants to allow control of its monetary policy to fall totally into the hands of the Fed.

    However, this type of coercion is not really compatible with an economy that aims to become the world's second largest in terms of GDP this year, and its American-style interest rates of 0% on a fast-expanding credit market cannot last forever either - Especially since Chinese officials have no intention of taking their collective foot of the stimulus accelerator, as illustrated by the comments on Sunday of Finance Minister, Xie Xuren, before the CCP politburo:

    • China will extend active fiscal policies aimed at countering the global economic slowdown into 2010
    • Departing "too early" from those policies could damage the economy
    • China's active fiscal policies in 2010 would focus on expanding domestic consumer demand

    Japan

    The last point, which we find increasingly worrisome, is the possibility that Japan will move to an increasingly aggressive currency policy, as advised by PIMCO's McCulley and Masano in their latest article: Where Exit Should be an Oxymoron: The Bank of Japan.

    The danger of falling into a Japanese-style situation has been one of our major themes for quite some time, as we have insisted on the need for the BoJ to be inventive.

    But what is interesting is these two gentlemen argue that the BoJ should intervene directly on currency markets, by selling the yen in unlimited quantities to fight deflation, making use of all available arms (like the Swiss).

    However, if the Japanese take this path, imagine the consequences for the eurozone, which is already suffering under the weight of its strong currency (despite the efforts of the Greeks)!

    Keep a close watch on the euro/yen exchange rate which, at 134, remains close to its average since March 2009: if investors were to anticipate such a move, the yen could leave this range pretty quickly, with the main resistance point being at 139; and then what … 170?

    In such a situation, the ECB could view this as one more factor tying its hands, as interest rates remain low for ‘for an extended period of time’.

    Consumer credit in the US

    Sunday, December 30, 2012

    S&P 500 Dividends Now Exceed Pre-Crash Levels And Dividend Payers Are Helping The Index

    Standard and Poor's publishes dividend data for the S&P 500 and also performance data for dividend payers and non-payers separately.

    The world economy is wobbly, but large-cap US stocks are growing, earning and sharing earnings growth with owners.

    Even with the dividend cuts that arose from the financial sector problems in the 2008 crash, dividends have been much more dependable as a source of funds than share prices for those who must harvest cash from their portfolios.

    Here is what S&P put out as of April 30, 2012.

    Figure 1: Dividends Now Exceed Pre-Crash Levels:

    Figure 2: Graphical View of Dividend Amounts:

    (click to enlarge)

    Bank and financial stocks in particular took a large bite out of the yield for the S&P 500 in 2009 due to voluntary and Treasury mandated dividend cuts or suspensions. Those dividends are not yet fully restored, but the index has overall managed to rise, and now exceeds the pre-crash dividend payment levels.

    The 2008 dividend payment amount exceeded the 2007 amount because of the lag time in cutting dividends due to the crash. Pre-announced dividends were paid even with a diving stock market, and cuts did not all take place instantly or at the same time.

    The average indicated yield of dividend payers is 2.49% and the weighted indicated yield for the index is 2.21%.

    Figure 3: Dividend Payers Total Return vs Non-Payers:

    When stock markets are rising, dividend stocks tend to lag, and when markets are falling dividend stocks tend to lead, as illustrated by the short period covered in Figure 3. During panics, correlations approach 1.00, and stocks fall undifferentiated.

    Some of the key proxies for the S&P 500 index are: SPY, IVV and VFINX.

    Disclosure: QVM has positions in SPY as of the creation date of this article (May 19, 2012).

    General Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. This article is presented subject to our full disclaimer found on the QVM site available here.

    SM: 5 Ways to Keep Your Home Sale on Track

    CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Encouraging signs in the housing market may entice more homeowners to put their properties on the market in 2013.

    Still, it isn't exactly a seller's market yet -- and deals can fall through at the last minute, for a variety of reasons. Financing delays, low appraisals, title problems, home inspections and even buyer's remorse can interfere with a seller's ability to close.

    The good news: Many of these problems are preventable if sellers are proactive and involved, said Lanny Baker, president and chief executive of ZipRealty Inc., a residential real-estate brokerage.

    Here are some tips:

    1. Learn about the buyer's financing

    Seek out a buyer who has been preapproved for a mortgage, said Baker, who evaluated 250 failed or delayed deals over a recent 2 -month span and determined that financing problems were to blame 40% of the time. Typically, the buyer's agent will be eager to share this information with you.

    However, preapproval doesn't preclude a lender from rejecting a buyer's mortgage application later on, so don't stop there. Check in regularly with the buyer's agent to ensure that the loan is on track to close on time.

    Lenders are requiring more stringent documentation, and if buyers aren't organized, or if they procrastinate when additional paperwork is requested, the closing could be delayed. To keep things on track, make sure your contract contains specific deadlines for buyers. "One key term is a financing contingency, and if the buyer cannot [resolve] that contingency, the terms of the contract would normally release the seller to entertain other offers," Baker said.

    If the buyer is seeking a Federal Housing Administration-insured loan, be aware that the home may have to meet certain safety and soundness requirements that typically don't come into play with conventional loans. To avoid delays, sellers can take care of things that might be flagged in an FHA appraisal before listing, such as chipping paint. An experienced real-estate agent should be able to help you identify such problems.

    Sometimes buyers underestimate the amount of cash they will need at closing. If that happens, the agents involved in the transaction -- who have a vested interest in the deal closing -- may agree to give up part of their commissions to cover the shortfall, Baker said. A seller can pay some of those costs, as well.

    2. Consider cash offers

    A buyer who doesn't need financing is more of a sure bet than one who does, said Bob Kelly, an agent with Re/Max Main St. Realty in Moorestown, N.J. However, cash bids are typically lower, so sellers need to weigh their options carefully.

    A buyer with a 3.5% down payment who is also asking for seller-assisted closing costs may bring in a larger return for the seller, but the deal could take longer to complete or be derailed by a low appraisal, Kelly said. A cash buyer won't need an appraisal, just verifiable funds, and may offer an earlier closing date -- which in the seller's eyes could compensate for the lower offer.

    3. Prepare for the appraisal

    Real-estate agents will tell you that low appraisals have killed many transactions in recent years. Many agents say appraisers -- who are hired by lenders to assess the value of the home -- are overly conservative in their valuations these days, even as home prices are rising in many locations.

    To avoid appraisal problems, price your home in line with comparable homes for sale in your area. Even then, however, problems may emerge.

    John and Susan Moon priced their Bethesda, Md., home competitively and received multiple bids. Still, the appraised value was $5,000 lower than the offer they accepted. In the end, they split the difference, dropping the price by $2,500 while the buyers brought $2,500 more to the closing table, John Moon said.

    "In some cases, you're pioneering new values," especially when receiving multiple bids that raise your home's price, said Stew Larsen, head of mortgage banking at Bank of the West. "As a seller, you need to think about what is Plan B" if the appraisal is low.

    Sellers can challenge a low appraisal, he said, but they rarely win unless the appraiser made an obvious mistake.

    One option is to add a contingency to the contract, laying out how the sides will renegotiate if the home's appraised value is lower than the sale price, said Paul Reid, an agent with Redfin in Orange County, Calif.

    4. Tackle title and inspection issues early on

    Some listing agents include a preliminary title report as part of their package, but a good agent will be able to spot red flags when reading it for you, Baker said.

    Perhaps a sewage assessment wasn't paid by the homeowner, the deed never got recorded, or an easement was granted that the owner is unaware of, he said. Addressing such issues early on will mean fewer surprises at the end.

    Similarly, instead of waiting for the buyer's home inspection to turn up problems, sellers should get one themselves before listing, said Tony Geraci, a broker and owner of Century 21 HomeStar in the Cleveland market. That way, they can make needed repairs before the buyer requests them -- or gets scared off, he said.

    5. Commit to a tight timeline

    As a seller, time isn't your friend.

    Encourage buyers to move quickly on things like the home inspection. If a deal is going to collapse, it is better to know sooner rather than later so the home can go back on the market.

    A longer process also gives a buyer more time to get cold feet. After winning a bidding war, buyers sometimes look at closing documents and paperwork and realize they're spending more than they should have on the home, triggering buyer's remorse, Reid said.

    But if the buyer is looking for reasons to get out of a deal, it may be better to oblige than waste more time. "You never want to keep a buyer that doesn't want to buy your house. Let them out and find the next buyer," Geraci said.

    A Crack at One of the Fastest-Growing Sectors in the Market

    Income investing to many people means picking up a few �go-to� industries. Utilities, energy producers and health care stocks are all obvious plays for anyone looking to lock in larger income. Unfortunately, it just isn�t that easy.

    My portfolio has plenty of the first two categories. We have a handful of above-average utilities and energy stocks. But we have only one health care play. If you look at other income-focused portfolios, you�ll find a number of health care real estate trusts and pharmaceutical makers.

    Now, we�re not unaware that changing demographics in this country and rapidly growing health care costs have made this a powerful sector. But the numbers are all wrong.

    On the real estate side, there are still a number of issues concerning what the property should cost. So smart investors have to remain picky when it comes to hospital and retirement home REITs.

    But when it comes to pharmaceuticals, we�re dealing with a whole other set of problems.

    We have been covering the ongoing �patent cliff� in name-brand drugs for years now. Some $49 billion in annual pharmaceutical sales are at risk of losing their exclusivity.

    And for a drug maker, that�s your most important asset…exclusive rights to make and sell your drugs.

    This isn�t some far-off problem. Last year, industry leader Pfizer lost exclusive rights to Lipitor. That drug brings in � or, more accurately, brought in � more than $4.5 billion in annual revenues. That�s a sizable chunk of change.

    Others have faced similar challenges. Eli Lilly lost exclusivity to Zyprexa � $1.9 billion in yearly sales. GlaxoSmithKline lost Advair � $4.7 billion in U.S. sales. The list goes on and on. There are also plenty of big drug patent expirations on the horizon. In fact, the majority of these problems are yet to come for most major companies.

    Now that we are further along on this patent cliff, other potential plays are popping up. There is one company we recently released to our Lifetime Income Report subscribers…

    Up until now, we�ve been a bit cautious to get into it, however. Its long and successful history didn�t give it a pass on this patent cliff problem. It was very much in trouble.

    However, through all of this, the company still managed to generate $11.4 billion free cash flow and increase its earnings per share for the 28th year. It has been able to do that in face of some of the stiffest economic environments in history and its expiring patent issues.

    And, it has ensured continued growth through their proactive portfolio transformations.

    What really strikes us about this company�s approach is how, despite its long legacy, it refuses to be a dinosaur. Its current goal is to realize half of its health care revenue from products developed in the last five years. Considering the backward-looking industry it finds itself in, that�s great foresight…

    Google dumping Clearwire investment

    BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) � Something is dire at Clearwire Corp. when an early-stage investor like Google Inc. bails out.

    Google GOOG �is selling its entire investment in Clearwire CLWR �for $47.1 million, losing approximately $453 million. Putting it mildly, this is not an endorsement of the next-generation wireless firm or its technology.

    Clearwire was one of the many companies that attempted to commercialize the moribund WiMax invention, promoted primarily by Intel Corp. INTC �WiMax began as a fiasco some years back, with a sharp tech writer discovering that Intel phonied up the whole demonstration for it by using Wi-Fi, not WiMax.

    Click to Play T-Mobile to pump $4 billion into 4G

    T-Mobile said it will spend $4 billion on its wireless network to offer the high-speed, fourth-generation mobile broadband service known as LTE, Greg Bensinger reports. (Photo: Getty Images)

    That should have been enough warning right there.

    The idea behind WiMax was that it would be Wi-Fi on steroids, that it could be tapped for miles, even in a moving car. From the earliest days, the technology had terrible interoperability issues from one vendor to the next. With clear specifications there is no reason for this sort of problem, unless there is some inherent flaw in the technology.

    I always thought there was some potential once the interoperability problems faded and when vendors consolidated. This optimism was further bolstered by Lightwire�s deal with Sprint Nextel Corp. S , which developed WiMax coverage as an aspect of 4G service around the country.

    Sprint would be the logical choice for this, having once sold a product called Sprint Broadband Direct � a wireless Internet service in the San Francisco Bay Area. It discontinued the product out of the blue, giving the excuse that there was a better technology it would eventually implement.

    I suspected what they had in mind was WiMax.

    Exactly what went wrong after that is sketchy, but it is now apparent that despite all the theories about WiMax and its issues, things were worse than imagined. The Google desperation sale says it all.

    Simply put, the technology did not work at scale. People have surmised that there was no uptake of the technology for political reasons or poor salesmanship, or even because of the proposed AT&T Inc. T �merger with T-Mobile.

    But all it takes is a look deeper into the various online forums to discover that this technology, which promised so much, simply crapped out when it was scaled up to what would have been a profitable customer base.

    The forums are clear about this. The best one to look over if you are thinking that Clearwire has any hope of long-term viability is this one at DSL Reports. Poor service and reliability, customer-service problems and dubious billing practices seem to be the theme. The technology worked great, then became spotty and then stopped working altogether.

    /quotes/zigman/112837/quotes/nls/clwr CLWR 1.30, +0.07, +5.69%

    This is a classic scalability issue. It�s a failure of adequate testing, or of ignoring test results. There are no real surprises in technology.

    Intel has to share the blame. Whenever I wrote anything about WiMax with a critical eye, I�d get a call or an email from the WiMax standards group grousing at me. In fact, it was always an Intel executive, since the company ran the group.

    The chip maker should have known about this technology not working properly from the get-go. I appreciate wishful thinking and a positive attitude as much as the next person, but WiMax should have been abandoned sooner than later.

    So the technology is now officially kaput. WiMax may linger in some specialty application where scale is not an issue, but it is not longer in any sort of meaningful conversation.

    Expect shareholder lawsuits flying everywhere before long.

    Pandora, Netlist, TiVo: After-Hours Trading

    Shares of Pandora Media(P) fell in late trades on Tuesday despite the digital radio company turning in a surprise adjusted profit in the latest quarter.

    Oakland, Calif.-based Pandora said its non-GAAP profit came in at $3.3 million, or 2 cents a share, for the three months ended Oct. 31 with revenue totaling $75 million. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters was for a loss of a penny per share in the company's fiscal third quarter on revenue of $71.4 million. Total listener hours came in at 2.1 billion for the quarter, up more than 100% from last year's equivalent period. "Rapid growth of 104% year-over-year in listener hours and record Internet radio market share growth to 66% illustrates the strong demand for personalized radio," said Joe Kennedy , the company's chairman, president and CEO, in a statement. "Our growing scale and powerful, multi-product advertising platform is enabling Pandora to increasingly penetrate areas that were once solely served by terrestrial radio." The stock was last quoted at $11.40, down 3.8%, on after-hours volume of nearly 200,000, according to Nasdaq.com. Pandora went public in mid-June, selling nearly 15 million shares at $16 each, a level that was well above both the company's original projected range of $7-$9 per share and its revised range of $10-$12 per share. The company's outlook may be fueling the pullback in the extended session as Pandora, which also delivered a profit in its fiscal second quarter ended in July, its first-ever report as a public company. Pandora forecast a non-GAAP loss of between 2 and 4 cents a share for the fourth quarter ending in January on revenue of $80 million to $84 million. The current average analysts' estimate is for a loss of 2 cents a share on revenue of $82.3 million in its fourth quarter.

    Netlist

    Shares of Netlist(NLST) tumbled in the extended session after the Irvine, Calif.-based memory chips said in a regulatory filing that it's selling $10 million worth of common stock under its existing shelf registration statement through an "at the market" offering. The stock was last quoted at $2.82, down 8.7%, on volume of more than 50,000, according to Nasdaq.com. It's been a volatile stretch for Netlist over the past few weeks as the shares scraped a 52-week low of $1.04 on Oct. 4 then rallied up to peak levels for the past year, reaching $3.96 on Nov. 18. The impetus for the investor interest was the company's third-quarter report, issued after the closing bell on Nov. 10. Netlist posted a narrower than expected loss, reported a year-over-year revenue increase of more than 50% to $16.3 million, and said it broke even on an adjusted EBITDA basis. The shares jumped 16% on Nov. 11, the first trading session following the report, and rose for five days in a row on much heavier than usual volume. Another stock seeing trading interest in the after-hours session was TiVo(TIVO), which rose 5% to $10.05 on volume of more than 100,000 after the television recording product maker posted a narrower than expected quarterly loss and delivered its first increase in total subscriptions in four years. -->To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

    HP Closes Palm Deal; Plans WebOS Phones, Slates, Netbooks

    Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) today said it has completed the acquisition of Palm (PALM) for $5.70 a share in cash.

    The company said the deal will “enhance HP’s ability to participate more aggressively in the highly profitable $100 billion smart phone and connected mobile device markets.”

    Jon Rubeinstein will continue to run Palm, reporting to Todd Bradley, EVP of the company’s Personal Systems Group. HP said Palm will continue to be responsible for WebOS software development and WebOS hardware products, including not only smart phones but also slate PCs and netbooks.

    HPQ is down 23 cents, or 0.5%, to $43.05.

    Alcatel Grabs a Financial Lifeline

    Shares of telecom equipment maker Alcatel Lucent (NYSE: ALU  ) are soaring today. The stock jumped as much as 14% on very heavy trading volume, reaching levels not seen since September (and even then just for a couple of days).

    The catalyst? Alcatel's notoriously flimsy balance sheet just got a serious upgrade as banking giants Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) and Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS  ) agreed to throw Alcatel a $2.1 billion lifeline.

    The cash infusion comes in the form of senior secured credit papers. The loans mature between three and a half to six years from now and are secured by Alcatel's intellectual property assets "among other things." We don't have any firm interest rates yet, but Alcatel plans to use some of the proceeds to refinance existing debt. The most burdensome of Alcatel's existing debt are a 500 million euro batch of 8.5% notes payable in 2016 and 747 million euro set due in 2017, with a 7.75% interest rates. So that's where the bar for sensible refinancing moves is set.

    But I do expect most of the funds to be used for day-to-day operations. Goldman and Credit Suisse want Alcatel to survive and pay the debt back, meeting certain financial mileposts along the way. The recently announced cost-cutting program is expected to help Alcatel hit a gross margin around 36% and operating margin of roughly 8% by 2016. These targets are ambitious but hardly impossible:

    ALU Gross Profit Margin Quarterly data by YCharts.

    Larger rivals Juniper Networks (NYSE: JNPR  ) and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO  ) already sport positive operating margins -- strongly so, in Cisco's case. There's no reason why Alcatel couldn't reach these modest targets as long as the company keeps innovating. Luckily, the cost cuts supposedlyleft the engineering department fairly unscathed -- management is giving the company a fighting chance.

    You have to assume that the huge and well-respected banks did their homework and came away convinced that Alcatel would be able to pay these loans back. This is an important stamp of approval, though Alcatel has a lot of work to do in order to follow through on its promises.

    The amount of data we store every year is growing by a mind-boggling 60% annually! To make sense of this trend and pick out a winner, The Motley Fool has compiled a new report called "The Only Stock You Need to Profit From the NEW Technology Revolution." The report highlights a company that has gained 300% since first recommended by Fool analysts but still has plenty of room left to run. Thousands have requested access to this special free report, and now you can access it today at no cost. To get instant access to the name of this company transforming the IT industry, click here -- it's free.

    Amazon Dips on Bloomberg Story of Low ‘Prime’ Subscribers

    Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) took a sharp dive to a low of $186.10 a short while ago but are now recovering, down 87 cents, or half a point, at $190.72, after Bloomberg’s Edmund Lee and Danielle Kucera reported that the company has garnered only 3 million to 5 million subscribers for its “Prime” member service, lower than the 10 million analysts have been estimating.

    The authors, citing anonymous sources, write that Amazon hopes to reach 7 million to 10 million in the next 12 months.

    Prime gives subscribers benefits such as free shipping and all-you-can eat video rentals.

    fin.

    UK Landlords Plan Rent Increases

    Despite claims about the start of a housing market recovery in the United Kingdom (UK), the possible double-dip recession has even more people looking to rent across the country and landlords are taking notice. Market experts are urging landlords to be realistic regarding rent increases as more people seek out rental opportunities. The new financial climate in the Eurozone has many people looking to rent both out of necessity and preference, due to there being more flexibility in the arrangement, and landlords could easily take advantage of the increased interest analysts believe is coming. For more on this continue reading the following article from Property Wire.

    The residential property rental industry in the UK is likely to remain strong in 2012 despite a weak economy and worries about jobs but landlords need to retain a realistic approach to any rent increases, it is claimed.

    Dorian Gonsalves, chief executive office of national lettings franchise agency Belvoir believes that rents are likely to rise moderately, remaining more or less in line with inflation and salary increases.

    ‘Rental fluctuation is likely to be very regional with some areas such as the South East likely to see a higher increase as rental prices force people out of London into the Home Counties. The current crisis is clearly making consumers nervous, affecting both the buy to let and mortgage market,’ he said.

    ‘Our franchise owners continue to report increased tenant demand. However unlike reports in the national press, any rental increases are likely to be modest and occurring only in pockets of the UK, with some areas experiencing no increase at all,’ he explained.

    Although in recent weeks there have been reports claiming that housing sales have increased, the double dip recession is likely to have a negative impact on this, he pointed out. ‘This then produces a market that is ripe for opportunist investment landlords who are able to secure property purchases that represent real value for money. Belvoir offices are already reporting increased activity from buy to let landlords and investors,’ said Gonsalves.

    ‘There is a shift towards more people renting as a preferred lifestyle choice rather than from necessity. People who rent can plan their spending more accurately and have flexibility to follow job offers etc. This is becoming increasingly important in the current financial climate,’ he added.

    Feedback from franchised offices across the network shows that tenants are now staying longer in properties. ‘Even modest rental increases, which were heavily published in the national press, tend to give tenants the impression that without very good reason it makes no financial sense to move to a larger or different type of property,’ Gonsalves said.

    ‘There is no doubt that if potential investors seek the right advice the returns can be extremely lucrative,’ he added.

    Hot Communications Stock on the Move; InterDigital

    Shares of InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) are surging in today�s trading. The stock reached a 52-week high of $54.20 in mid-day trading, and at last check, it was up 4.51% to $53.10, with volume up from daily average of 967,609 to 1.07 million.

    InterDigital shares have a 52-week range of $22.30-$54.20. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In the last one year, InterDigital shares gained 119.28%.

    InterDigital shares are seeing hug activity ahead of the company�s fourth-quarter and full-year 2010 financial results, which will be released after market close on February 23, 2011. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to come in between $92 million and $94 million. Scott McQuilkin, CFO of InterDigital, said that the company�s expected fourth-quarter 2010 revenue reflects continued strong performance in sales of smartphones and the expansion of its licensee base over the past year.

    For the third quarter of 2010, InterDigital reported net income of $35.5 million, or $0.79 per diluted share, representing an increase of 16% over the third quarter of 2009. The company�s third-quarter revenue increase 22% to $91.9 million. InterDigital ended the third quarter of 2010 with cash and short-term investments of $563.6 million.

    InterDigital recently announced that its patent holding subsidiaries signed into a worldwide, non-transferable, non-exclusive, royalty-bearing patent license agreement with Acer Inc. Lawrence F. Shay, president of InterDigital�s patent holding subsidiaries, said that the company is pleased to have entered into the patent license agreement with Acer. Shay further said that the license agreement shows the company�s continuing strength in developing and licensing multiple generations of air interface technologies.

    King of Prussia, Pennsylvania-based InterDigital is engaged in the designing and development of advanced wireless technologies.

    • Need fast service and cheap rates from a broker? Click here to see my favorite place to trade IDCC
    • Want more? Check out the message board buzz for IDCC
    • See which newsletters are recommending this stock pick
    • Get breakingnews alerts on this stock:� http://thestockmarketwatch.com/

    Exploring Insurance And Financial Industry Trends

    Both the insurance and financial industry trends of the early twenty-first century were dramatically re-shaped by the global financial meltdown of 2008 to 2010. Not only did the international crisis lead to the demise of several esteemed institutions, but it shifted perceived notions of the success of Western capitalist ideals. All over the world governments implemented new plans of intervention, however this was tempered by an over-arching pragmatic ideal that removes regulation quickly based on the domestic status.

    One of the big concerns of modern corporations is the issue of responsibility and accountability regarding social and environmental decisions. Ernst & Young have printed a white paper showing that in 2010, there was a rise in shareholder resolutions which specifically emphasized the environment or similar issues of company accountability. Last year saw 191 resolutions over the 150 in the previous year.

    Many analysts claim issues of social responsibility and a greater awareness of the environment are soon to be the main priorities of corporations in the United States. Shareholder resolutions with a specific focus on these issues have been increasingly raised at annual general meetings for the past six years. Recently 26% of the shareholders of ExxonMobil told the company to be more transparent to the public regarding its extraction process, claimed by critics to harm the environment.

    The financial crisis has ushered in new corporate attitudes towards unfettered growth. No longer is the emphasis on meeting unfeasible growth projections, but rather on the sustainability of corporate growth over the long term. While also linked to environmental goals, sustainability is the ability of a company to maintain growth without artificially straining for it.

    Corporations have faltered and in some cases collapsed as a result of unrealistic growth projects that bet heavily on markets and regions or because they could not sustain expansion in a turbulent economic climate. The modern corporate strategy of sustainability requires strong leaders who can appease investor expectations and locate where the new engines of growth will begin.

    Many commentators have estimated the price of insurance will increase as a result of the numerous natural disasters across the globe. In early 2011 there was an array of tragic events in Japan, New Zealand and Australia, devastating communities and rocketing insurance claims.

    The largest insurers in the world, Lloyds of London, claim the array of natural crises including an earthquake and flooding would raise insurance rates as businesses try to regain and rebuild. This was confirmed by global insurers Caitlin, who said the number of disasters would inevitably lead to an increase in rates.

    Insurance Continuing Education Pennsylvania

    Saturday, December 29, 2012

    RIMM Halted, Jumps 9%: FYQ3 Rev, EPS Beat, Subscriber Count to 79M

    Research in Motion (RIMM) shares were halted this afternoon just before the company reported fiscal Q3 revenue and earnings per share that beat analysts’ expectations.

    Revenue in the three months ended in November fell 47%, year over year, and fell 5%, quarter over quarter, to $2.7 billion, yielding a net loss of 22 cents.

    Analysts had been modeling $2.65 billion and a 35-cent loss per share.

    The company shipped 6.9 million BlackBerrys and 255,000 of its PlayBook tablet computers.

    Subscriber count in the quarter was down from the prior quarter at 79 million versus 80 million in fiscal Q2.

    Gross margin in the quarter rose from the prior quarter’s 26% to 30.4%, which is likely to come as a surprise to many on the Street, as the average estimates had hovered around 27%, based on reports I’ve seen this week.

    RIM ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in cash and equivalents, up $600 million.

    CEO Thorsten Heins remarked, “”RIM continued to execute on its product roadmap plans and to deliver on key financial metrics as it gets set for the global launch of BlackBerry 10.”

    Heins noted RIM

    Continued to demonstrate our strong financial position, generating $950 million in cash flow from operations, and increasing our cash position significantly to more than $2.9 billion. More than 150 carriers are currently completing technical acceptance programs for the first BlackBerry 10 products, and beta trials of BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10 are underway at more than 120 enterprises including 64 Fortune 500 companies. This is an exciting time and our carrier partners, application developers and employees are all looking forward to unveiling the innovation and excitement of BlackBerry 10 to our customers on January 30, 2013.

    RIM said that BB10 debut in January may delay purchases of BlackBerry, prompting an operating loss this quarter amidst continued pressure on prices in the smartphone market:

    The Company expects that there will be continued pressure on operating results as it gets set to launch its BlackBerry 10 platform in the fourth quarter. The Company intends to continue to consider using pricing initiatives on BlackBerry 7 devices and service fees in some markets as a way to maintain our subscriber base and drive more BlackBerry users. The timing of the BlackBerry 10 launch event for January 30, 2013 could also impact sales of current BlackBerry 7 products as some customers may defer purchasing decisions and wait for BlackBerry 10 devices. All these factors are expected to impact unit volumes, subscribers, margins and service fees. In addition, the company will be significantly increasing its marketing spending this quarter as expected, to support the global launch of BlackBerry 10, and the Company expects to report an operating loss for the fourth quarter.

    Chief information officer Robin Bienfait will retire at the end of the year, RIM said.

    RIMM stock is up 6 cents, or 0.4%, at $14.18 in late trading before the stock halt. Shares are expected to resume trading at 4:40 pm, Eastern.

    RIM management will host a conference call with analysts at 5 pm, Eastern time, and you can catch the webcast of it here.

    Update:�RIMM shares have resumed trading and are up $1.26, or 9%, at $15.38.


     

    Institutional Investors See Advantages in Index Funds

    Institutional investors are a segment of the market consisting of traders who make large trades that qualify them for preferential treatment with a broker. This can include lower commissions and fewer regulations that dictate their market participation. Examples of institutional investors are pension funds and other types of large entities that buy quantities of shares in bulk amounts.

    This type of investor can buy shares in many types of market products that include individual stocks, various types of bonds and specific commodities. However, an institutional investor many also decide on a type of index fund instead of individual securities. One type of index fund that is an option to a passive institutional investor is an exchange traded fund. This type of fund is traded on stock exchange has assets that include stocks, bonds and commodities. They track an index such as the S&P 500.

    The use of an exchange traded fund is beneficial to the institutional investor because of the ability to be flexible. This type of market vehicle is often seen as an alternative to using futures. This type of product does not require the use of margins, a special account or documentation that may be necessary for other types of financial products. Using this type of investment allows for tracking a market segment or product without having to buy large quantities of an individual security.

    Other types of institutional investor that are more active include hedge funds. Investments for this type of fund are convenient for active traders because they are traded in the same way as stocks. Funds offer flexibility that is not available with other types of index funds. Traders will also benefit from the use of exchange traded funds because they are not included in the short sale uptick rule.

    This use of exchange traded funds or available in many markets such as those in countries in Asia. This will include the Singapore Exchange and the Hong Kong Exchange. Investors in these markets have access to funds that are not available in the European and American markets. However, the type of fund that is used for an investment vehicle will depend on various factors such as risk and return.

    Traders that will take advantage of exchange traded funds are those that seek to have long-term growth of capital and active returns on their investment. They are a great way to track the investment return of a market segment or specific type of financial product.

    Asian institutional investors face new challenges this year in a difficult market situation; visit our website to learn more.

    The Job Interview From Start To Finish

    The questions you ask are usually used by the interviewer to evaluate your fitness for the job. You should research enough to be able to ask questions that are not found in obvious places such as the organization's annual report. Find out about the job and the company when it's your turn to ask questions. Ask the questions you prepared in advance. Feel free to ask for specifics about who you would report to and the duties involved. Be prepared to ask at least three questions in areas concerning the job, the company, the industry, external influences.

    Do not ask questions that raise red flags
    By asking "Is relocation a requirement?" the interviewer may assume that you do not want to relocate at all. If you do not mind relocating, try asking "I understand that most companies like their executives to spend time at their various major locations. Could you tell me how often I might be asked to relocate over five or ten years?"

    Answer a question with another question
    If the interviewer asks you what salary you expect, try answering by saying "That is a good question. What are you planning to pay your best candidate?"

    Rehearse your interview
    Role play with a friend. You should be able to convey all pertinent information about yourself in 15 minutes. Videotape the interview to identify unwanted gestures. If videotape is not available, use your telephone answering machine to record an interview: listen to your diction and speaking speed.

    Avoid negative body language
    One purpose of an interview is to see how well you react under pressure. Avoid these signs of nervousness and tension:

    Frequently touching your mouth
    Faking a cough to think about the answer to a question
    Gnawing on your lip
    Tight or forced smiles
    Swinging your foot or leg
    Folding or crossing your arms
    Slouching
    Picking at invisible bits of lint

    Another purpose of an interview is to see how well you communicate. Remember that communication is a two-way street; you must both listen and talk. If you are talking too much, you will probably miss cues concerning what the interviewer feels is important.

    Make a connection
    The purpose of the interview is to see how well you might fit into the organization. Successful interviews are one that concludes as if you and the interviewer are long lost friends. Tips to make a connection include:

    Be optimistic and try to make others feel comfortable
    Show openness by leaning into a greeting with a firm handshake and smile. When appropriate, give examples through short, interesting, and humorous stories about yourself. Try to envision what functions you would perform that would benefit the organization and discuss those activities.

    Dress properly
    One component of the interviewer's job is to make a judgment concerning your ability to fit in the organization. One factor influencing that judgment is the attire you wear for the interview. Find out about the company's expectations for personal appearance--dress expectations, hair length, facial hair, etc.

    Be on time
    Most organizations look at hiring, at the entry level, prospects who will become professionals. If you are a professional, you work until the job gets done--which may be longer than 8 to 5. Being on time (or early) is usually interpreted by the interviewer as evidence of your commitment, dependability, and professionalism.

    Send a "Thanks for the Interview" note
    After an interview, send a thank-you note. After the final interview, time the thank-you note to arrive during the week you believe the hiring decision will be made. These notes serve as a reminder to the interviewer concerning your appropriateness for the position. You may mention a topic discussed during the interview.

    When the job contact was made through the Internet or e-mail, send an e-mail thank-you note immediately after the interview. Mail a second letter timed to arrive the week before the hiring decision will be made.

    5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Pebblebrook Hotel Trust

    Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, real estate investment trust Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE: PEB  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

    With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Pebblebrook's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

    Pebblebrook facts

    Headquarters (Founded) Bethesda, Md. (2009)
    Market Cap $962 million
    Industry Hotel/Motel REIT
    Trailing-12-Month Revenue $239.7 million
    Management Chairman/CEO Jon Bortz (since 2009)
    CFO Raymond Martz (since 2009)
    Trailing-12-Month Operating Margin 6.4%
    Cash/Debt $75.3 million / $251.8 million
    Dividend Yield 2.5%
    Competitors FelCor Lodging Trust (NYSE: FCH  )
    Host Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HST  )
    Strategic Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: BEE  )

    Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

    On CAPS, 97% of the 318 members who have rated Pebblebrook believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bulls include fellow Fool Andy Cross (TMFOpie) and boxxer55, both of whom are ranked in the top 5% of our community.

    Late last month, Andy tapped Pebblebrook as a solid bargain opportunity: "Trading [at book value] for a manager that has demonstrated past performance on pulling out more value from hotel properties. And Pebble has some very nice properties on the coasts."

    In fact, Pebblebrook trades at a cheapish price-to-book of 1.1. That represents a discount to industry peers like FelCor Lodging (2.8), Host Hotels & Resorts (1.5), and Strategic Hotels & Resorts (2.0).

    CAPS All-Star boxxer55 elaborates on the Pebblebrook bull case:

    In my opinion, this stock has the potential to be one of the best long-term performers in my portfolio over the long term (5-10 years). Management is very experienced and have already demonstrated their ability to execute their business plan. They raised money to purchase hotels after the crash, taking advantage of depressed valuations then invest to both improve revenue and reduce overhead. As earnings ramp up, the dividend will rapidly follow. ... Combine the future high dividend level with the appreciation potential of the common and you get the best of both worlds, a high dividend based on what you pay today and enormous upside appreciation potential.

    What do you think about Pebblebrook, or any other stock for that matter? If you want to retire rich, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Owning exceptional stocks is a surefire way to secure your financial future, and on Motley Fool CAPS, thousands of investors are working every day to find them. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

    Friday, December 28, 2012

    5 Reasons I Can’t Sell BofA Stock — And Why You Should Buy

    At the end of last year, I picked the brains of several investing experts for a single stock pick they would recommend buying on the first trading day of 2011 and selling on the first trading day of 2012 � with the goal of beating the market for the calendar year. The pie-in-the sky hope was that our 10 best stocks to buy for 2011 that would give normal Joes a simple and tax-efficient opportunity to beat the market in 2011 thanks to our recommendations.

    On the whole, that dream appears to be playing out thanks to a handful of standouts. �They include Zalicus (NASDAQ: ZLCS), a biotech stock picked by Michael Murphy that has gapped up 75% in less than four months, and fabless semiconductor play Mindspeed Tech (NASDAQ: MSPD) picked by Nancy Zambell, which is up over +25% so far in 2011.

    So what my part in this list? Well, I cast my lot with that dog of a financial stock Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) � both in my recommendation for our feature and for my own brokerage account. Specifically, I bought 75 shares at $13.34 a share. Read my initial reasons for buying Bank of America here.

    After some poor earnings and the Fed�s dividend denial, I�m 8% in the hole since my buy-in right before New Year�s. But even now I can�t bring myself to cash out of my BAC shares at current pricing and diving into AAPL shares at current pricing.

    Here�s 5 reasons why I can�t sell Bank of America… at least not right now.

    Corporate focus and restructuring. Before the financial crisis, Bank of America was an aggressive acquirer. The much-maligned Countrywide deal is the best known these days, let�s not forget the $47 billion in cash and stock for FleetBoston in 2004 and $35 billion for credit card powerhouse MBNA in 2005. While BofA is far from a streamlined corporate operation, the harsh reality of the financial crisis and end of acquisitions has forced the company to focus on integrating operations and cutting out the fat. That should result in improving earnings even if all things remained equal.

    Mighty Merrill Lynch: And what�s more, the fire-sale purchase of Merrill Lynch in 2008 has given Bank of America access to bigger revenue streams. Merrill has strengthened Bank of America�s high-end investment offerings, and opened the door for more corporate advisory work and wealth management. Considering that the first quarter of 2011 was the best for M&A since 2007 � and that BofA Merrill Lynch ranked third in the advisory spot worldwide, ahead of vaunted Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) � Merrill�s business segment will be a very profitable enterprise in the months ahead. In fact, it already is judging by the performance of BofA�s �global banking and markets� segment in last week�s earnings report.

    Better overall credit quality: One of the primary reasons I bought BAC stock was because I noticed improving credit quality on the financial stock�s balance sheet. And though Wall Street was disappointed that the bank�s earnings miss, it cannot be overlooked that delinquencies, non-performing assets and charge-offs continue to decline at BofA. This is a crucial long-term trend � and one that actually resulted in a reduction in loss provisions by over $2 billion in the most recent quarter. Bank of America is steadily extending credit again, but most importantly it is extending credit to folks who actually are paying their bills.

    How much worse can it get? Despite this improving credit situation, most investors remain focused on the old news. Yes, the mortgage business continues to drag on earnings, sucking $2.4 billion out in the most recent quarter. But note that was substantially lower than prior periods. Yes, mortgage liability issues continue to scare off many and the threat is very real. But as the January rally after a Fannie/Freddie settlement showed, these issues have already been priced. After all, that $2 billion write-off was cheered as �good� news. From Wikileaks rumors to the departure of its CFO, the bad headlines are mostly baked in and investors have already braced for bad news. Frankly, how much worse can it get based on the current bleak outlook?

    �Smart money� sees a bargain. I�m not contending that Bank of America will double by the end of the year. But it�s hard to argue against BAC bumping back up significantly when you look at Wall Street�s price targets for the stock. Out of 25 brokers watching the stock (according to Thomson/First Call data) the median target is $18.00 and the median is $18.18. That�s over 40% upside from current valuations. What�s more, the �low� target is $14 among all 25 brokers. That�s 12% above current pricing, a decent one-year return for any stock. Lastly, the most recent price forecast — from FBR Capital just a few days ago � is $15 despite a reduction from �outperform� to �market perform.� I don�t pretend to believe that Wall Street gurus know what they�re talking about 100% of the time. But if you�re going to disagree with two dozen analysts, you better have a darn good reason.

    If an investor asked me today what I think of BAC stock, I would use these same reasons as a basis to recommend buying in. Maybe it�s just the self-justification of an investor underwater, but these reasons all still make sense to me. In fact, these are many of the very same reasons I chose Bank of America stock as my buy-and-hold pick for all of 2011in the first place � so why would I flip-flop now? Read my initial reasons for buying Bank of America here.

    Then again, I have to note my horizon is 12 months and not 12 days. There are certainly signs that BAC stock will move sideways at best for a little while in the wake of earnings. I also have only a few thousand bucks in my �play money� brokerage account, so I�m not dependent on this investment to generate income or provide in any way for my retirement. I have a conventional 401k through my employer for long-term financial planning. So for me, I can afford to let it ride a little more � especially considering the $8 fee I suffered on my purchase and another $8 charge on the sale shaves nearly 2% of my $1,000 investment in Bank of America simply for the pleasure of playing the market.

    Bank of America may not be a good buy for everyone. Heck, it may even be a good sell for many of you who currently own it based on your investing goals.

    But for me, I simply can�t sell. At least, �not yet.

    Jeff Reeves is editor of InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he owned a long position in Bank of America stock. Follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP and become a fan of InvestorPlace on Facebook.

    Top Kuwaiti Oil Exec: "Oil to $160"


    Oil prices could continue to rise, and sooner than you may expect...

    One of the top oil executives of the oil giant nation of Kuwait says that prices are projected to soar as high as $160 if an embargo on Iranian oil persists.

    Tension has filled the Middle East as the European Union has placed an embargo on Iranian oil imports, which has resulted in Tehran repeatedly threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

    The Strait is arguably the world’s most vital and strategic waterway, since it is the sole passageway for Gulf oil exports. Iran’s threats to shut down the Strait if it is not allowed to export its signature crude, have come with great attention.

    “If the embargo on Iranian oil persists, or in case of a military move over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to soar to around $150 to $160,” Kuwait Petroleum Corporation board member Ali al-Hajeri says.

    But before panic at the pump begins, Herjeri says that such a price would not last very long. He believes that oil prices to return back to “normal levels” once the reasons for the rise disappear.

    He says that the current price of between $100 and $105 a barrel is “fair and acceptable to producers and consumers.” Any price higher would be counterproductive to the global economy.

    From Middle East Online, 

    Crude prices were lower in Asian trade on Monday as concerns over the unresolved debt crisis in Greece outweighed worries about supply disruptions in the Middle East and Africa.

    New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March, was down 54 cents at $97.30 a barrel in the afternoon.

    Brent North Sea crude for March delivery shed four cents to $114.54.

     

    Has News Corp. Made You Any Real Money?

    Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

    Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Over the past 12 months, News Corp. generated $3,313.0 million cash while it booked net income of $3,117.0 million. That means it turned 9.7% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

    All cash is not equal
    Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

    For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

    So how does the cash flow at News Corp. look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

    With questionable cash flows amounting to only 6.0% of operating cash flow, News Corp.'s cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 13.0% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 24.9% of cash from operations.

    A Foolish final thought
    Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

    We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

    • Add News Corp. to My Watchlist.

    Trading Places: Stocks Slump, Treasuries Rebound

    Freezing temperatures and the recent bounce of frozen OJ futures naturally brings to mind the classic comedy, “Trading Places,” but today it’s stocks and Treasuries that are swapping spots today. Equities, which have begun 2010 on up note, are off this morning. Treasuries, which have been getting pasted for about the past month, especially on the long end of the yield curve, are trading higher.

    Stocks are up from their fairly sharp opening losses following Alcoa‘s (AA) earnings miss late yesterday, however. The Dow Jones Industrials, which fell about 70 points in the early going, are off about 20 at 10,644. And with a bit of a thaw in the deep freeze engulfing much of the nation, oil prices continued to give back some their recent gains, with nearby crude futures back under $80 a barrel.

    Treasuries, meanwhile, were up in price, evidently having been beaten up sufficiently to attract investor interest at the trifecta of big note and bond auctions kicking off today with the sale of $40 billion three-year notes. The benchmark 10-year note was up 22/32 and yielded 3.73%, down sharply from last week’s peak of 3.84%, which was the highest since last August.

    Is Apple Stock Cheap? Relatively Speaking, Yes

    By Dan Burrows, BNet

    Apple (AAPL), the hottest stock on the planet -- LinkedIn's IPO notwithstanding -- is an overhyped tech stock, right? Actually, by relative valuation measures, data suggest it's cheap.

    Ordinarily index investors needn't concern themselves with an individual stock's valuation. That is to say, if a stock looks cheap by price/earnings ratio (PE) and likely to go higher, or too expensive and therefore bound for a fall.But Apple accounts for huge chunk of some very popular ETFs and so we thought we'd give it greater scrutiny.

    Even after rebalancing by the Nasdaq, Apple will still account for 12% of assets (down from 20%) of the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ). Apple is also the largest holding of the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Fund ETF (IYW), accounting for about 14 percent of the fund's assets, according to the latest data. And at the Internet Architecture HOLDRs (IAH), Apple makes up 23 percent of the portfolio. Not that you would actually own the Internet Architecture HOLDRs.

    Since Apple has so much sway in those ETFs, we thought we'd take a look at some relative valuations measures -- all of which suggest the stock is a bargain.

    For the rest of this article, click here.

    Get info on stocks mentioned in this article:
    • AAPL
    • IAH
    • IYW
    • Manage Your Portfolio

    The Real Challenge Facing Beermakers

    The following video is from Monday's MarketFoolery podcast, in which host Chris Hill, as well as analysts Joe Magyer and Jason Moser, discuss the top business and investing stories.

    The craft-brewing industry in the U.S. is growing rapidly and has some of the nation's bigger beer makers putting out their own craft-style brands, without much indication that it's actually mass-produced. Now the smaller breweries are calling for more transparency. In this segment, the guys ask whether this is a legitimate claim, or just a bit of whining from the little guys. Is all fair in love and beer?

    The Motley Fool's chief investment officer has selected his No. 1 stock for the next year. Find out which stock it is in our brand-new free report: "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." Grab a copy free for a limited time. Just click here to access the report and find out the name of this under-the-radar company.

    Apple: Is Verizon Wireless iPhone Ad Campaign In The Works?

    CrunchGear is reporting that “the rumor mill is churning” about Landor Associates working on an ad campaign for the launch of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone on Verizon Wireless (VZ, VOD). The post notes that Landor has been working on branding with Verizon since 2007, and says it is “hard at work preparing for the iPhone HD launch.”

    If the report is accurate, it would suggest that the original five-year deal with AT&T (T) that I posted about earlier this morning may have been modified.

    Citigroup: S&P Reiterates Buy, Raises Estimates

    In a somewhat puzzling review of Citigroup’s (C) Q1 report this morning, Standard & Poor’s financials analyst Matthew Albrecht reiterated a “Buy” rating on the stock and noted that the company blew away his EPS estimate for a 1-cent loss with 15 cents profit per share. However, he’s not budging on his $6 price target, even though his estimates are going up.

    Albrecht raised his 2010 earnings estimate to 49 cents per share from a prior expectation for just break-even, and raised his 2011 estimate to 50 cents from 17 cents. But his price target is based on tangible book value, which, as Citi said today, was $4.09 in Q1.

    Citigroup shares are currently up 16 cents, or 3.4%, at $4.72, one of few financials rising amidst Goldman Sachs’s (GS) travails.

    In related news, Institutional Risk Analytics’s Chris Whalen went on CNBC earlier today to sing Citi’s praises, stating that “You�ve got to throw roses when it�s due and they�ve sold a lot of the business,” referring to the divestment of assets in Citi Holdings over several quarters. Whalen also remarked that he was somewhat cautious on JP Morgan Chase (JPM), stating that “this is the one I�m looking at in terms of catching up on reserves�they take a different posture.”

    Thursday, December 27, 2012

    2013 FDA Drug Approval Decision Calendar

    Here's an updated list of biotech and pharmaceutical companies with FDA drug approval decisions expected in 2013.

    Biotech and drug stocks below are listed in chronological order based on the closest regulatory catalyst -- FDA drug approval decisions and advisory panels.

    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)Drug/indication: Canagliflozin for diabetes.FDA advisory panel: Jan. 10Approval decision date: March 29

    See if (PATH) is in our portfolio

    Theravance (THRX)Drug/indication: Vibativ for hospital acquired pneumoniaApproval decision date: Jan. 11Santarus (SNTS)Drug/indication: Uceris for ulcerative colitisApproval decision date: Jan. 16NuPathe (PATH)Drug/indication: Zelrix for migraineApproval decision date: Jan. 17, 2013Impax Labs (IPXL)Drug/indication: IPX066 for Parkinson's diseaseApproval decision date: Jan. 21Hyperion Therapeutics (HPTX)Drug/indication: Ravicti for urea cycle disorderApproval decision date: Jan. 23Sanofi (SNY) and Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS)Drug/indication: Kynamro for dyslipidemia/hypercholesterolemiaApproval decision date: Jan. 29, 2013Raptor Pharmaceutical (RPTP)Drug/indication: RP103 for cystinosisApproval decision date: Jan. 30, 2013Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB)Drug/indication: Ampligen for chronic fatigue syndromeApproval decision date: Feb. 1, 2013Celgene (CELG)Drug/indication: Pomalidomide for multiple myelomaApproval decision date: Feb. 8, 2013Dynavax (DVAX)Drug/indication: Heplisav for hepatitis B preventionApproval decision date: Feb. 22, 2013Roche (RHHBY) and Immunogen (IMGN)Drug/indication: T-DM1 for breast cancerApproval decision date Feb. 26Zogenix (ZGNX)Drug/indication: Zohydro for chronic painApproval decision date: March 1, 2013Depomed (DEPO)Drug/indication: Serada for menopauseFDA advisory panel: March 4Approval decision date: May 31Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)Drug/indication: Eliquis for blood clot preventionApproval decision date: March 15A.P. Pharma (APPA)Drug/indication: APF530 for chemotherapy induced nauseaApproval decision date: March 27Biogen Idec (BIIB)Drug/indication: BG-12 for multiple sclerosisApproval decision date: March 28MAP Pharma (MAPP)Drug/indication: Levadex for migraineApproval decision date: April 15Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP)Drug/indication: Amitzia for opioid-induced constipationApproval decision date: April 26Navidea Biopharmaceuticals (NAVB)Drug/indication: Lymphoseek, a radioactive tracing agent for lymph node mappingApproval decision date: April 30GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)Drug/indication: Dabrefenib for melanomaFDA advisory panel: June 3Delcath Systems (DCTH)Drug/indication: ChemoSat for liver metastases due to ocular melanomaApproval decision date: June 14AVEO Pharmaceuticals (AVEO)Drug/indication: Tivozanib for kidney cancerApproval decision date: July 28Companies with drugs filed to FDA but no assigned approval decision dates:Auxillium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL): Xiaflex for Peyronie's diseaseBayer and Algeta: Alpharadin for prostate cancerAntares Pharma (ATRS): Otrexup for rheumatoid arthritisGlaxoSmithKline: Dolutegravir for HIVSources: Company reports, TheStreet research, BioMedTracker>To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein. Follow TheStreet on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

    >To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints FREE for a limited time only: Get TheStreet Ratings #1 Stock Report NOW!

    Aspiriant Completes Acquisition of Deloitte Investment Advisors

    After announcing its plans to acquire Deloitte Investment Advisors in July, Aspiriant  completed the agreement on Monday, according to the company. With the acquisition, Aspiriant, based in San Francisco, now has over $7 billion in assets under management, and advises almost 800 clients.

    Aspiriant is an independent wealth management firm that formed in 2008 with the merger of Kochis Fitz and Quintile Wealth Management. Aspiriant is 100% owned by "key employees" and will continue to operate with an employee ownership model.

    In addition to offices in Los Angeles and San Francisco, Aspiriant now has offices in New York, Boston, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Minn., Milwaukee, Wis., and Detroit, Mich.

    Rob Francais, CEO of Aspiriant, described the firm's approach to growth. “Among firms that express interest in joining us, we look for four distinctive culture traits when considering them: a common investment philosophy, a dedication to client service, a commitment to building a permanently independent organization, and supporting and nurturing the careers of outstanding employees,” he said in a press release.

    Wednesday, December 26, 2012

    Top Stocks To Buy For 12/2/2012-4

    Celgene Corporation NASDAQ:CELG increased 1.36% closed at $62.03, its overall trading volume was 4.25 million shares during the last session. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 17.18% while its earning per share reached $1.84.

    United Therapeutics Corporation NASDAQ:UTHR gained 0.96% closed at $60.00, its total trading volume during the last session was 1.23 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 7.69% while its earning per share reached $1.09.

    Shire Plc. (ADR) NASDAQ:SHPGY advanced 0.07% closed at $70.10, its overall trading volume during the last session was 1.13 million shares. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 15.73% while its earning per share reached $2.98.

    HMS Holdings Corp. NASDAQ:HMSY reported the gain of 6.37% closed at $60.11, its total trading volume was 1.09 million shares during the last session. The trailing twelve month return on investment remained 13.85% while its earning per share reached $1.22.

    Obamacare Taxes Will Wreck the Economy and Your Portfolio

    This article isn’t about whether Obamacare is good or bad for the nation’s health care crisis. It’s about the heavy load of taxes that will hit Americans if the Affordable Care Act doesn’t get repealed or overturned. The bottom line is that these taxes are going to be really, really bad for the economy and for your portfolio. Here’s a look at how just a few of them will cause pain.

    The first tax is a surtax on investment income. Beginning next year, long-term capital gains would be taxed at 23.8% instead of 15%. Dividends would be taxed at 43.4% instead of 15%, as would short-term capital gains. These tax hike apply to households making more than $250,000 and individuals making more than $200,000.

    The Obamacare Ruling: 5 Investing Scenarios

    The hike in the dividend rate is especially troubling. Many investors put funds into stocks that pay dividends because these companies are generally�large global brand names�that are considered relatively safe. The dividends provide an extra measure of safety, particularly against inflation. Many older Americans rely on�dividend and other income investing�as a way to make up for the losses inflicted by inflation.

    The result is that dividend investing will be totally undermined, causing individuals and wealth managers to reallocate their portfolios. The stocks of these large-cap names may take a significant blow as investors rotate out of them. My guess is they’ll transfer into preferred stocks�or high-yield bonds. Thus, you may want to consider getting out of�large-cap names that are riding high P/E’s, like�Proctor & Gamble�(NYSE:PG),�Pfizer�(NYSE:PFE),�McDonald’s�(NYSE:MCD),Merck�(NYSE:MRK) and�AT&T�(NYSE:T). Consequently, it could make sense to rotate into the iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF�(NYSE:PFF) and�Ashford Hospitality Trust Preferred D Series�(NYSE:AHT).

    The other possibility is that these companies will boost their dividends to blunt some of this damage. That would leave them with less capital to reinvest in their business, continue growing and thus hire more people for that growth. That hurts the economy.

    Second, the Medicare Payroll Tax will be boosted from 2.9% to 3.8% at the same income thresholds mentioned above. The result is that people in these brackets will have less money to spend and/or put toward investment. The impact will be $900 per $100,000 earned, so that money ends up in government hands rather than the economy. It’s hard to say exactly where this money won’t get spent, but I’d think luxury retailers will be potentially vulnerable. So, look to get out of stocks like�Tiffany�(NYSE:TIF) and�Ralph Lauren�(NYSE:RL).

    And third is the real killer — the Individual Mandate Excise Tax, which hits anyone who does not buy health insurance. So let’s say you have X dollars of discretionary income in 2012. Beginning in 2014, you will have to spend a portion of X on health insurance or pay the excise tax. Once again, that’s money that gets lifted out of discretionary expenditures.

    However, unlike the Medicare increase that hits only upper-income people, this one hits everybody. That will suck a lot of money out of the economy. I think in this case, you’re looking at a hit to consumer-discretionary stocks, so I’d look at shorting the Consumer Discretionary ETF�(NYSE:XLY) and the�PowerShares S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary Portfolio�(NASDAQ:PSCD), as smaller companies are more likely to get hurt.

    These are only three of the 18 taxes headed our way unless Obamacare gets repealed or overturned. Act accordingly!

    The opinions contained in this column are solely those of the writer.

    Lawrence Meyers holds Ashford Hospitality Trust Preferred Series D. He is president of PDL Capital, Inc., which brokers secure high-yield investments to the general public and private equity. You can read his stock market commentary at SeekingAlpha.com. He also has written two books and blogs about public policy, journalistic integrity, popular culture and world affairs.

    SM: This Olive Oil Costs More Than a...

    The Pitch:

    Video

    Would you pay 15,000 for a bottle of olive oil from Greece? Wendy Bounds and Charles Passy discuss what makes this olive oil cost a pretty penny; it's all in the packaging.

    An olive oil that costs more than a first-class ticket to Greece, the land of all things olive? That's what the company behind Lambda, billed as "the world's first personalized olive oil," is offering -- for $15,000 ($147 per teaspoon). And this is no simple bottle of salad dressing, says maker Speiron, which calls it "a luxurious way to enjoy life." Speiron sources the oil right down to the particular trees the olives are harvested from, and presses and bottles it to preserve "maximum freshness and fruitiness," says a company spokesperson. (The brand also classifies the oil as ultra-premium, a category that goes beyond extra virgin.) But what really distinguishes Lambda, the brand notes, is the packaging: The nearly 17-ounce bottle is embossed with the recipient's signature and comes in a lacquered case with a gold nameplate.

    A Taste of Reality:

    While the demand for olive oil is starting to rival that of wine among the culinary cognoscenti, most experts say a great bottle can be had for $20 or so. Zingerman's, a Michigan-based purveyor that carries an extensive selection of high-end oils, says its priciest offering goes for $60 -- and comes from an Italian producer that releases only 2,000 bottles a year. As for the packaging, the foodie crowd doesn't seem impressed. "It's marketing, fashion, what have you," says Judy Ridgway, author of four books on olive oil. But that's precisely the point, counter Speiron execs. "This is for very special people," says a spokesperson.

    Year-End Review: Simple Ways to Cut Your Budget Now

    2013 is right around the corner, and coming with it is the looming threat of the fiscal cliff. If a deal isn't reached between now and then, we'll all wake up on Jan. 1 with higher tax rates and lower government spending levels. One way or another, you'll likely have a bit less cash to spend, beginning with your first check in January.

    That means the next few weeks would be a good time to figure out where and how to effectively cut back your spending to compensate.

    Where Does Your Money Go?

    The first step in trimming your personal budget is to understand where your money goes. It's a lot easier to cut your costs when you know what the biggest drains on your cash are. Then you can make plans to address those specific spending areas.

    If you use personal finance software like Quicken, built-in reports will let you know where your cash is going. Alternatively, if you run most of your spending through a credit card, that card's website might have spending graphs that you can use to see where your money winds up.

    Everyone's situation is different, but depending on your circumstances, your report might wind up looking a bit like this:

    Each of these expenses can be adjusted to some extent. It's just a question of whether the benefits are worth the cost and effort to make the changes.

    How to Slim Down Those Big Pie Slices

    Taxes: The easiest way to pay lower taxes is to earn less income that gets subject to taxation. That doesn't necessarily mean you need to accept a pay cut, but rather that you should look for ways to reduce the tax impact of your earnings.

    One of the easiest ways for ordinary wage earners to shelter income from taxes is to contribute to a traditional 401(k) plan. In 2013, most employees will be able to contribute up to $17,500 in their 401(k)s, with those ages 50 and up able to add $5,500 more.

    Groceries: If your grocery list is heavy on prepackaged or other forms of convenience foods, you can save a bundle by buying the raw ingredients, and assembling and cooking your meals from scratch -- or something a few steps closer to it. Even simple steps like shopping with a list -- and sticking to it -- or setting a specific weekly food budget can result in significant cost-cutting.

    Mortgage Interest: Mortgage rates are near all-time lows. If you have a mortgage and are able to refinance it, taking advantage of today's incredibly low rates can potentially knock thousands of dollars off your annual interest payment.

    Household (Maintenance): Other than the medical expenses slice of the pie, this is the big slice that probably has the biggest variability and the biggest "surprise" element. Appliances wear out, basements leak, and roofs need repairing. Don't put off regular maintenance. Spending a small amount up front to fix small problems saves you from shelling out big dollars for big-ticket fixes. Another way to control the impact of maintenance costs is to regularly set aside money to cover repairs. Having cash on hand both improves your bargaining power with vendors and keeps you from having to pay interest on top of the costs of repairs.

    Auto: Consider carpooling, telecommuting, and/or using mass transit instead of driving alone. That not only can save you direct commuting costs like gas, parking and tolls, but it can also help reduce the wear and tear on your car, which will save money you on maintenance and repairs.

    Insurance: By shopping around every time your insurance policies are up for renewal, you can guarantee that you're getting the best rates. In addition, consider taking higher deductibles and saving the premium differences versus what you were charged on the old deductible, in case you ever do need to use the insurance. Generally speaking, you'll recoup the increased deductible within a few years of premium savings and be ahead money-wise if you ever do need to use it.

    Utilities: Energy and water efficiency is the name of the game here. Low-flow toilets, showers, and sinks can keep your water bills down, and good insulation, compact florescent lighting, and a programmable thermostat can keep the electric and gas bills in check.

    Education: Public schools often have fee waivers for those who truly can't afford an otherwise mandatory charge. And remember, there's no shame in passing on the myriad of fundraisers that schools have, especially if you're forced to choose between the fundraiser and your electric bill.

    Charity: Charity is a completely voluntary expense. If you can't afford to give as much next year but still want to contribute to your favorite causes, ask what volunteer opportunities are available. Plenty of solid charities would benefit greatly from a donation of your time and talent.

    Medical: The key levers you have as far as saving on medical expenses are things like asking for generic prescriptions, making sure you only see in-network physicians, and making use of lower-cost options like in-store clinics for basic care needs.

    As scary as the 2013 fiscal cliff may seem, remember that you probably have some sort of wiggle room in every major expense category you have. By planning now, you can make the right choices for you and your family that will enable you to best cope with whatever financially comes your way next month.

    Related Articles
    • How Household Budgeting Can Keep Everyone Happy
    • America Has Lower Household Debt, but Higher Personal Debt
    • The Notion That You'll Spend Less in Retirement Is Totally Wrong

    Chuck Saletta is a contributing writer to The Motley Fool.

    Electronic Arts Is Off Its Game

    by David Gibbs

    Serial over-promiser Electronic Arts (ERTS) may have under-delivered for the last time when it reported earnings for the December quarter Monday after the bell. The company reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.33, beating consensus estimates of $0.31, but the real story behind the earnings release was the company’s guidance for the coming quarter, as well as the coming year.

    For the March quarter, one which should reflect the release of several big-name titles, the company forecasted non-GAAP earnings of $0.02 – $0.06 / share, well below analyst estimates of $0.13 / share. ”Given that they are releasing four triple-A titles in the quarter, including the fact that ‘Mass Effect 2′ could turn into one of the year’s biggest blockbusters, it’s a problem if they can’t make money on that,” remarked one analyst in response to the forecast.

    For the next fiscal year, which ends in March 2011, management expects non-GAAP earnings of $0.50 – $0.70 / share on revenue of $3.65 – $3.9 billion. As was the case for the coming quarter, these estimates came in well below the Street consensus, which called for EPS of $0.74 on revenue of $4.07 billion.

    Some suspect that the cautious guidance, which starkly contrasts the brazen forecasts that the company was known for, may be little more than a shift in management thought. They surmise that management is merely trying to put themselves in a position to under-promise and over-deliver next time around. This may be the case, but we won’t know the answer until numbers for the March quarter are released. Until then, all there is to know is that shares are getting hammered on Monday’s news.

    ERTS finished up the after-hours session trading at $16.04, good for an 8.29% decline. This puts shares dangerously close to their 10-month lows of $15.86, which they hit on December 9th. Since then, shares moved as high as $18.87 before leveling out at $17.49 leading into Monday’s report. Considering shares are less than $0.20 from their lows, I would definitely be on the lookout for a big shakeout Tuesday. One a positive note, if we do see significant selling on heavy volume, that may help to create a capitulation bottom for ERTS, and maybe even a buying opportunity.

    Be warned though. Trying to pick a bottom in stock selling off in a correcting market is a dangerous game and I wouldn’t recommend it. Stay away from ERTS unless you’re feeling lucky, real lucky.

    Disclosure: No Holdings In ERTS.

    Why Income Investors Should Consider BDCs

    With the historically low bond rates persisting now for the past few years, it's not surprising that many investors (rightly, in my view) have looked to the equity market for alternatives. I have written over the past couple of years about three of the more popular sectors: REITs, Utilities and Dividend Growth stocks. Another popular area that I haven't addressed is MLPs.

    All of these areas have performed reasonably well, especially in 2011. The SPDR Utility Index (XLU), which represents all of the utilities in the S&P 500, has increased in price by almost 12% this year. The iShares Dow Jones Real Estate Index Fund (IYR), has retreated of late after a very strong 2010, but is still up marginally ahead of the S&P 500. The JPM Alerian MLP Fund (AMJ) is up almost 4%. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (Large-Caps that have hiked their dividend for at least each of the past 25 years) are up 2.6% in price so far this year.

    So, clearly the focus on yield is helping the equity prices of many higher dividend paying segments of the market, but there is one area that has not fared well: Business Development Companies (BDCs). Before I go on, I need to point out that I am not particularly knowledgeable about these companies, but I do believe that I have a reasonably good understanding of the big picture here.

    BDCs have been around for 30 years. In exchange for following several rules, these lenders are able to operate with favorable taxation (like REITs and MLPs to some degree). Specifically, they are limited in their leverage (Assets must be at least twice as high as debt, which effectively means Debt to Capital will be less than 50%). They also have to distribute 90% or more of their income. At least 70% of their investments must be in eligible securities. There are several regulatory authorities governing BDCs. So, in a nutshell, these are closed end funds making investments in or lending to small and middle-market businesses, employing limited financial leverage and paying out the bulk of their income to investors.

    Before I go on, here are 15 BDCs that I have identified with market caps above $150mm (I may have omitted some):

    click to enlarge image

    The total market cap of the entire list is about $13 billion, smaller than a single typical Utility in the S&P 500. I included the net debt to capital - clearly, they are all relatively low leverage for Financials. Several have no net debt, and other are fairly overcapitalized. More on this later.

    As I suggested, these income-producers have suffered capital losses. Most of the stocks have declined, with only non-dividend paying American Capital (ACAS) not losing value. I included the price to tangible book value - typically they trade near TBV, which makes sense. The dividend yields are typically 11%. Not surprisingly, payout ratios are high, with some apparently returning capital. Several of the companies have been boosting dividends for the past few years.

    I don't intend to dive too deeply today into specific names. Fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Nicholas Marshiis an excellent resource, and he has profiled many of these companies. Instead, I wanted to share some initial observations.

    Many are turned off by Financials these days. Once again, the sector is the worst in the S&P 500 in 2011 (-17% roughly). Unlike banks, though, the BDCs operate with lower leverage and more transparency and most likely are more nimble and focused due to their size. I can't prove that last point, but as far as transparency, the BDCs list each and every investment in their SEC filings, allowing investors to understand exactly what the underlying exposures are. This is great, unless you are like me and aren't a credit expert! Still, it gives everyone a flavor and more informed investors clarity.

    Another issue that BDCs are forced to raise capital to grow since they pay out earnings as dividends. This serves to keep the tangible book value close to one. I can't envision an environment where the sector would command much of a premium on that front. The good news, for now, is that many of these guys are undercapitalized, meaning that they can make additional investments and perhaps boost the dividends subsequently.

    A final observation is that many of these companies aren't very well known. None are in the S&P 500, and only a few are in other Standard & Poors indices. While several have a surprisingly large number of analysts (the far right column), several have few or even none. Despite all the focus on yield these days, this group seems somewhat obscure, which is a good thing for those looking for a potentially good deal.

    One column that's not included (because it's not yet done!) is perhaps the most important one as far as I am concerned: Insider ownership. When investing in these types of investment funds, there are many things we need to understand better and to potentially avoid, such as embedded conflicts of interest (which exist here!) and structual or credit risks. One way to mitigate these risks is to see how much skin-in-the-game management has. I haven't completed this exercise, but I intend to do so and may post the results in a subsequent article. Please comment or message me if this would be of interest. I am impressed with CEO holdings of Hercules Technology (HTGC) and Solar Capital (SLRC).

    So, in conclusion, BDCs may be a neglected potential source of income for yield-hungry investors. The amount of diligence required to pick a specific name might be high, but the ones I have looked at tend to be highly diversified. While Financials have inherent risks, the limited leverage mitigates some of the concern.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.