Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Needham: Don’t Believe Downbeat Chatter On Jive, Sees 55%+ Upside

Needham�s Michael Huang reiterated his Buy rating on Jive Software (JIVE), which he sees rising to $20, more than 55% higher than current levels.

Huang noted that despite �a preponderance of cautious chatter� from the company�s Las Vegas conference, his field checks were largely upbeat, aside from a few comments about thin customer support (which he notes could be due to strong new customer signing).

In a note out today he writes �Our checks suggest strengthening demand trends both across internal and external use cases, ramping preference for Jive�s cloud offering, notable interest in Jive 6 (just released), and sustained competitive leadership vis-�-vis peers. We detect no pricing pressure or delayed sales cycles. And at the end of the day, we believe Jive is well positioned with clear leadership in a Social Enterprise market that is expanding is size and getting more strategic in the eyes of the C-suite.�

Huang wrote that he would be a buyer on the stock�s recent weakness. He notes that Jive is getting easier to sell in an expanding market, and thus he anticipates �continued strength of new customer signings and existing customer cross-sell activity through at least the term, which could put elevated investor concerns to rest. We remain optimistic on near-term performance given increasing market awareness, heightening levels of C-level buy-in and improving customer references/testimonials.�

He notes that he found that many existing and prospective customers �were complimentary around Jive�s product positioning vis-�-vis competitors.�

Jive shares were fluctuating between small gains and losses recently.

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