Sunday, October 14, 2012

Greek Election Result Too Close to Call, Exit Polls Show

Greece�s election re-run Sunday looked to be too close, which means that European markets will be on tenterhooks Monday in anticipation of more political horse trading as parties bid to form a coalition government.

The tightness of the race means that it may not be clear even which party will get the first shot at building an alliance by the time financial markets open Monday.

That isn�t exactly a surprise. The contest always was going to be a nail-biting affair.�Central banks last week indicated that they stand prepared to provide liquidity in the event of a result that roils markets.

Exit polls released after voting ended Sunday showed the main parties, New Democracy and Syriza, virtually inseparable. New Democracy, which endorses the multinational bailout of Greece, snared between 27.5% and 30.5% of the vote, while Syriza, which opposes it, bagged between 27% and 30%, exit polls show.

Greece�s parliament comprises 300 seats. Under the electoral system, the party that wins the most votes gets a 50-seat bonus, strengthening its position to negotiate a coalition.

In a few hours, official projections will be available, which should provide a bit more clarity. But the race still may be too close to call.

Ahead of the vote, analysts gave an edge to center-right party New Democracy, an established party with a history of government.

Syriza is a party newly formed from a disparate group of left-wing groups that has grown in popularity after tapping into public anger and discontent at the harsh economic conditions imposed on Greece in return for aid. In recent days, Syriza has softened its message, and its leader said he wants to keep the euro. Greeks have consistently expressed their desire to remain part of the common currency.

Sunday�s vote is a re-run of an election May 6 that ended with none of the parties securing enough votes for an absolute majority or able to cobble together a coalition.

Markets across Europe will get a lift from a result that sees New Democracy heading a government, though any gains will be short-lived. A result that sees Syriza leading a government would spark a selloff, though any losses likely would be retraced in the days that follow. If no party is able to form a government, markets also would head lower.

Polling Sunday passed without incident. The mood of the country was given a lift by the Greek national soccer team�s upset 1-0 win late Saturday over the strongly favored Russians at the European Championship in Poland.

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