After tomorrow’s close we’ll get to see how Apple’s quarter turned out, but more importantly we’ll get a first look at the guidance ahead that includes the previously unincluded numbers for the Apple set-top box for television and the Apple Phone. We have not heard any forecasts on these devices, and analysts have only started raising longer-term estimates and targets after these were unveiled at MacWorld.
The Banc of America analyst, Keith Bachman, is a 5-star rated analyst with Starmine and he recently reiterated his Buy rating and lifted his $100 target to $110 after the new products were unveiled. The street is looking for estimates of $0.78, but the Starmine SmartEstimate(R) is for $0.81. The higher-end of the range is $0.83. Revenue expectations from Wall Street are roughly $6.43 Billion. The company only guided $0.70 to $0.73 and $6.0 to $6.2 Billion implied with its last earnings when it gave guidance.
Apple’s chart shows an overbought reading, but that is frequently the case and almost every sell-off in Apple shares has been met with a buying flurry and a surge to newer and higher all-time highs. On an adjusted basis, Apple is up more than TENFOLD since October 2001 when Windows XP was released and when the economy was choking on the impact from 9/11. Shares are also up huge from last earnings when its shares went out at $74.29 ahead of earnings.
The real impact from new products is actually two and three quarters away, so there is a lot of calendar between now and the forward guidance. Any supply hiccups or any real changes in the component markets could speed up or delay the launches, and many research firms will have to try factoring that variable into estimates. As of one-day out, Options traders appear braced for a move of up to $4.00 in either direction; but that "expectation from options pricing" should compress rapidly after tomorrow’s results come out and as the time ! value le ft on the options will erode in the last 48 hours until Friday’s options expiration date.
We’ll likely see the formal restatement from 2004 to 2006 for the accounting charges from options expensing, and you can expect that many media reports will still be focusing on Steve Jobs and the potential options scandal. Also, with the stock close to $100.00 you can just assume that this is on STOCK SPLIT watch.
Jon C. Ogg
January 16, 2007
Tags: 2012 Growth Stocks ,Growth Hi-Tech Stocks ,Growth Stocks For 2012 ,Growth Stocks To Watch For 2012 ,Genworth Financial to Exit Variable Annuity Business
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