Saturday, April 26, 2014

JP Morgan Offering a 17.6% pretax yield

Company History and Business

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is a global finacial service firm and banking institution operating in 50 countries. It is engaged in investment banking, financial sevices for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial trancactions processing, asset management and private equity. It is a well-run moneymaking machine that =brought in $24 billion in revenues with $2.5 trillion in assets in the last quarter. With a outstanding CEO in Jamie Dimon who has lead the company through the financial crisis, the London Whale Losses, government investigations and a first first quarter 2014 loss, while still ensuring that the earning power of the firm isn't harmed or impaired by these problems.

Jamie Dimon has been the CEO of JPM since 2005 and Chairman of the Board since Dec. 31, 2006. Under his leadership, JPM has become the leading bank in domestic assets under management and market valuation, and the top credit card provider in the U.S. Dimon led JPM through the financial crisis and acquired Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual for pennies on the dollar, increasing JPM in size and scope. But the acquistion of Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual came with mortage-backed securities and potional government lawsuits by the Justice Department. Forseeing that JPM has injected $28 billion into its legal reserves, since the end of 2009. Starting with the London Whale losses, the bank has had the Justice Department investigate the company, resulting in penalties up to $20 billion, most of this happened within the past year.

Finances

Balance Sheet

2013

31/12

2012

31/12

2011

31/12

2010

31/12

Total Current Assets - - - -
Total Assets 2415689 2359141 2265792 2117605
Cash & Due from Banks 39771 53723 59602 27567
Other Earning Assets, Total 1404299 1358307 1271811 1174042
Net Loans 722154 711860 696111 660661
Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Net 14891 14519 14041 13355
Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Gross - - - -
Accumulated Depreciation, Total - - - -
Goodwill, Net 48081 48175 48188 48854
Intangibles, Net 11232 9849 10430 17688
Long Term Investments - - - -
Other Long Term Assets, Total - - - -
Other Assets, Total 175261 162708 165609 175438
Total Current Liabilities - - - -
Total Liabilities 2204511 2155072 2082219 1941499
Accounts Payable 194491 195240 202895 170330
Payable/Accrued - - - -
Accrued Expenses - - - -
Total Deposits 1287765 1193593 1127806 930369
Other Bearing Liabilities, Total - - - -
Total Short Term Borrowings 267005 322106 287071 346332
Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases - - - -
Other Current liabilities, Total - - - -
Total Long Term Debt 317506 312215 322752 348302
Long Term Debt 317506 312215 322752 348302
Capital Lease Obligations - - - -
Total Debt 584511 634321 609823 694634
Deferred Income Tax - - - -
Minority Interest - - - -
Other Liabilities, Total 137744 131918 141695 146166
Total Equity 211178 204069 183573 176106
Redeemable Preferred Stock, Total - - - -
Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable, Net 11158 9058 7800 7800
Common Stock, Total 4105 4105 4105 4105
Additional Paid-In Capital 93828 94604 95602 97415
Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) 115756 104223 88315 73998
Treasury Stock - Common -14868 -12023 -13193 -8213
ESOP Debt Guarantee - - - -
Unrealized Gain (Loss) 2798 - - -
Other Equity, Total -1599 4102 944 1001
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 2415689 2359141 2265792 2117605
Total Common Shares Outstanding 3756.11 3803.95 3772.7 3910.3
Total Preferred Shares Outstanding 1.12 0.91 0.78 0.78

Income Statments

2013

31/12

2012

31/12

2011

31/12

2010

31/12

Net Interest Income 43319 44910 47689 51001
Interest Income, Bank 52996 56063 61293 63782
Total Interest Expense 9677 11153 13604 12781
Loan Loss Provision 225 3385 7574 16639
Net Interest Income After Loan Loss Provision 43094 41525 40115 34362
Non-Interest Income, Bank 53287 52121 49545 51693
Non-Interest Expense, Bank -70467 -64729 -62911 -61196
Net Income Before Taxes 25914 28917 26749 24859
Provision for Income Taxes 7991 7633 7773 7489
Net Income After Taxes 17923 21284 18976 17370
Minority Interest - - - -
Equity In Affiliates - - - -
U.S GAAP Adjustment - - - -
Net Income Before Extraordinary Items 17923 21284 18976 17370
Total Extraordinary Items - - - -
Net Income 17923 21284 18976 17370
Total Adjustments to Net Income -1330 -1407 -1408 -1606
Income Available to Common Excluding Extraordinary Items 16593 19877 17568 15764
Dilution Adjustment - - - -
Diluted Net Income 16593 19877 17568 15764
Diluted Weighted Average Shares 3814.9 3822.2 3920.3 3976.9
Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 4.35 5.2 4.48 3.96
DPS - Common Stock Primary Issue 1.36 1.2 1 0.2
Diluted Normalized EPS 6.27 5.95 5.37 5.26

For fiscal year 2013, the firm interest income decreased 5% to $53 billion and net interest income after loans after loan loss provision increased 4% to $43.09 billion. It earned $17 billion and had revenues of $96.billon for 2013. The company had legal expenses after taxes of $8.6 billion you the year. Total deposite of $453 billion up 10% from the prior year.

Financial Assets and Liquidity

Ratio's 2013 2011
Debt to Equity 1.68 1.62
Total Equity to Total Assets 0.09 0.09
LT Debt to Total Assets 0.12 0.12
Tier 1 Capital 11.9 12.6
Tier 1 Common 10.7 11.0
Total Capital 14.4 15.3

JPM Pretax Earnings

  Net Common Income to Shareholders Income Tax Pretax Income
1Q2013 6,121 2,553 8,684
2Q2013 6,101 2,802 8,903
3Q2013 5,346 2,278 7,624
4Q2013 5,322 1,258 6,580

JPM 12 month pretax earnings after adding back taxes paid is $31.8 billion. It trades at around $57 with 3.8 billion shares outstanding, giving JPM a market cap of $213 billion that a 14.6% pretax yield. Buying JPM stock at today's price will give a pretax return of 14.6%compaired to the 2.5% on treasury is pretty good.

What JP Morgan Considers Normal Range For Earnings

Under normalize environment JP Morgan net income of $24 billion with growth initiative that will allow the firm to earn more than $24 billion over time. With the growth initiative in place target for earnings of $27 billon. Using the $27.5 billion "normalize" figure with growth initiative and $1.3 billion in benefit from a 100 basis point increase in interest rates that would come to $39.3 billion pretax. Assuming a 30% tax rate and deducting $1.5 billion in preferred dividends thats leaves $37.8 billion. This implices a 17.8% pretax yield based on shares out standing and the current stock price.

Risk to JPM

There are risks to JPM mainly from the Department of Justice and its investigations of the bank. With $28 billion in its legal reserve it can weather the penalities from the Department of Justice. JPM has penalties totaling $20 billion from the Department of Justice. Department of Justice penalties broken down:

$2 billion civil penalties to settles DOJ claims under the Finacial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement. $1.4 billion to settle federal and state securities claim by the National Credit Union Administration $515.4 million to federal and state securities claims by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation $4 billion to federal and stater securities claims by the Federal Housing Agency $298.8 million to claims by the state of California $19.7 million to claims by the state of Delaware $100 million to claims by the state of Illionois $34.4 million to claims by the state of Massachusetts $613.8 million to claims by the stae of New York

JPM said about $7 billion of its penalties were tax-deductable, because of these penalties it earnings fell flat for the four quarter. JPM still has legal risk, but there is little risk to its business model, and earning power.

JPM Valuation

The firm is selling for 13x its earnings, 2.5x free cash flow, and 1.00x book value which shows that the company isn't cheap, but it is selling below its intrinsic value based on its pretax earnings, free cash flow and book value. JPM offers a 14.6% pretax return plus it's worth $86/share base on 10x its pretax earnings. By using $37.8 billion pretax earning or $9.94 per share at 10x will give you a $99.40 per share value and a 17% pretax return. JPM will continue to grow its earnings and make more money on its loans as interest rate moves up. Compared to Wells Fargo which offers a 12.8% pretax return, you'll getting one the best managed banks in the world with a higher return. JPM didn't just survived the 2008 crisis it thrived on it, making the bank one of the most stable and sound banks in the world. If JP Morgan traded at the same price to free cash flow as Wells Fargo then the company would sell for $130.00 per share or at the same price to book value $95.04 per share. Based on all of this it is very clear that JP Morgan intrinsic value is $99.40 per share and offers a 17% pretax yield which make it a great Long-Term Play for potential investors.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/3120446062x0x742266/2bd13119-52d2-4d78-9d85-a433141c21ae/01-2013AR_FULL_09.pdf

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/3120447064x0x652147/a734543b-03fa-468d-89b0-fa5a9b1d9e5f/JPMC_2012_AR.pdf

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/11/investing/premarkets/

About the author:Cody Eustice

Visit Cody Eustice's Website

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