Amidst bullish remarks today about Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) from Morgan Stanley, research firm IDC reported that its data on monthly PC shipments suggest a fall of perhaps 7.7%, year over year, worse than a prior 5.7% drop the firm had been predicting.
The calendar shift this year of China’s New Year holiday — from the 23rd of January last year to the 10th of February this year — is being compounded by “new budget cuts from the government” and “anti-corruption measures” in that country, which is now the largest PC market in the world, at 21% of shipments last year, says IDC.
“Other monthly results indicate close-to-forecast market performance in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Latin America, and Asia/Pacfic (excluding Japan)(APeJ) while supply chain data indicate room for a slightly larger downward adjustment,” says IDC.
The firm thinks a double-digit percentage decline is in fact possible this quarter, and a single-digit decline in the second quarter. Any bounce-back in the second half of the year depends on “some attractive new PC designs and more competitive pricing relative to tablets and other products.”
Computer stocks are mixed today, with HP up 59 cents, or 2.7%, at $22.77, on that upgrade, and Apple (AAPL) stock up $10.68, or 2.4%, at $454.34, amidst hope for some development in the dividend, and bullish remarks by Huberty on CNBC this afternoon. Microsoft (MSFT) shares are up 20 cents, or 0.7%, at $28.23, but Intel (INTC) stock is off 3 cents at $21.34, and Dell (DELL) stock is down 13 cents, or 0.9%, at $14.18.
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