Against the Spread: 2011 NFL Picks: Week 14

After finally getting a solid winning week this season, it's a good feeling. In fact, it's almost worth a Tim Tebow-esque moment of thanks and reflection.

After going 4-1 in Week 13, my record currently stands at 25-32 with three ties, good for a winning percentage of 41.7% in the 60 games I've picked so far. With four weeks left in the regular season, a few more 4-1 weeks would help me salvage a miserable season. It's like Tebow has taken over picking game for Kyle Orton. The turnaround both for my picks and the Broncos truly is magical.

OK, so I'm joking too much about Tebow and his miracle work. But in all honesty, it's amazing that Denver team has gone from one of the worst teams in the league to playoff contention. It just goes to show that motivation -- especially at this time of the season with playoff spots on the line -- is important for bettors to consider when making their picks.

"This is around the time we do the annual conversation about motivation," says Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the Web site PredictionMachine.com. His model is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread.

Bessire notes that his model still has 21 of the NFL's 32 teams with a 1% or greater chance of making the playoffs. It's not over until it's over.

"You would expect that our numbers get better and better throughout the season. That's true," he says. "But it can peak around this time of year because we have to make assumptions in the last few weeks that the players on the field are trying their hardest to win. And we know that's not 100% accurate. We're going to have more confidence between two teams with similar motivations. In games between two teams with different motivations, it gets more complicated."

"Motivation is always tough to gauge," adds Bryan Leonard, a professional sports handicapper with Pregame! .com who is also part of the Tuesday Group, a collection of professional bettors in Las Vegas who get together to handicap the games each week. "It is something you have to take into account and it's something that I think is less important in the NFL than in college," he says.

With that, it's on to the picks for Week 14 of the NFL season. As I'll remind you throughout the entire season, these are for entertainment purposes only. Once again, I have enlisted the help of PredictionMachine.com's Bessire, who offers analysis of the data his model provides for each of the games I've picked this week.

Pregame.com's Leonard also offers his thoughts, picks and analysis, which focuses on the spread movement by Vegas oddsmakers to determine where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These trends prove to be critical for bettors who are on the hunt for inefficiencies and value.

Read on for the first game pick, where the hapless Philadelphia Eagles travel to play the surging Miami Dolphins. And as always, I encourage you to leave comments below with your favorite picks against the spread this week.

Philadelphia Eagles at Miami Dolphins (-3)

This game seems like an easy overvalue/undervalue trap. By now, everyone knows the Eagles are hopeless and that the Dolphins are capable of, well, winning at least a few games. The problem bettors need to address is whether Vegas believes the public has completely deserted the Philadelphia bandwagon, as this line would have you believe.

According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Dolphins at 1.5-point favorites before quickly bumping the line to Dolphins -3. Virtually every other sportsbook has the same spread. If you believe that home-field advantage is worth 3 points in the NFL, then oddsmakers are essentially saying that the Eagles and Dolphins are evenly matched.

Pregame's Leonard thinks this is the fi! rst week that linesmakers have caught up to how bad Philadelphia is. "We already know Miami has a weak home-field advantage," Leonard says, a reference to the fact that the Dolphins have won only four home games during this season and last. However, the Dolphins are now riding a three-game home winning streak.

"From a confidence standpoint, Miami is in a pretty good position," Leonard says. "The line is making you think there is value on Philadelphia, but it is kind of hard to put money on them considering how they've played."

Perhaps with Vince Young at quarterback, the Eagles are about as good as the Dolphins. But Prediction Machine's Bessire notes that Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin should be back this weekend, which means he doesn't have much of an opinion on this game. He does question the motivation of each team, though.

"There is so much talent there that they have to play for something, whether it's Andy Reid's job or their own contracts," Bessire says. "These teams are very different. Miami has vastly improved because the offensive line and defense has picked up, while the opposite is true of Philadelphia. That all being said, there's too much talent on the side of Philly to expect that Miami wins by more than a field goal in that game."

The Pick: Dolphins -3. According to SpreadTrends.com, the Dolphins have now covered six games in a row. Obviously, that means nothing when it comes to this matchup, but it does show that Vegas may not have the Dolphins' value completely figured out. Reggie Bush is running the ball well and Matt Moore doesn't completely stink. Maybe this pick is a push, but I still think there's plenty of value in Miami (and plenty of value picking against Philadelphia).

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

If you're a believer in the home-away splits for players, this game is for you. And if you believe that motivation can play a deciding factor, thi! s one is also up your alley.

Last season in particular, much has been made of the lack of success on the road for Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, whereas he has strong performance at home in a dome. I think this year we have to look at Drew Brees as the player to watch for home-away split performances.

While his team is a perfect 6-0 at home thanks to his 20 touchdowns to three interceptions, Brees and the Saints are a mediocre 3-3 on the road. In those six road game, Brees has thrown only 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Two of those three road losses were to the Tampa Bay Bucs and the St. Louis Rams, which are not exactly the cream of the crop in the NFL.

That's probably why this line isn't higher than it already is. According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Saints as 5-point favorites before dropping the number to Saint -3.5. As many of the smart Vegas guys will tell you, the 1.5-point shift isn't a big deal because it didn't move over any key numbers. In other words, don't get baited into taking the Saints because the line has dropped.

"New Orleans is not the same team on the road," Pregame's Leonard says. "This is one of the few games I like this week. The Titans are getting their running game back, they look great at home, and they know they in the hunt for playoffs."

Prediction Machine's Bessire was also surprised to see his model in favor of Tennessee to cover in this game.

"The Titans are good enough to make this interesting, though we would like New Orleans by a TD at home," Bessire says. "We've liked New Orleans all season. But that offensive line on Tennessee has gotten up to where it should have been all season and Chris Johnson is now playing well behind it. The Saints are a pretty good team and they'd be favored over any team, even the Packers, at home. But they're on the road, outside on grass."

In terms of motivation, which team would you rather back? You have the Saints, who lead their division and are on the road in a non-conferen! ce game, and the Titans, who are scratching and clawing for that last playoff spot, knowing they're likely a better team than the Bills, the Bengals and even the Jets. As I said on the first page of this column, motivation starts to be a bigger factor this time of year. Choose wisely.

The Pick: Titans +3.5. When you're playing this ticket, make sure not to talk too loudly about how atrocious New Orleans' defense truly is. According to Football Outsiders, the Saints have a defense ranked 29th overall by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA. That's out of 32 teams total! I think we could see Chris Johnson put together another solid week rushing the ball as the Titans try to keep pace with the Texans.

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+8)

I feel like every time I've picked against the Patriots this season it has been a winning bet. As a New England fan, I benefit if the Pats lose and give me a winning ticket, and I'm still happy if the Pats win and I don't get to cash in.

Once again, Vegas oddsmakers probably know they can't set a line high enough to stop the public from betting on New England. According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites. Since then, the line has inched higher to 8 points, where it has held steady. That's quite a change from New England laying 21 points at home to the Indianapolis Colts last week, although Bessire is a bit puzzled by the 8-point line.

"A spread of 8 is such a weird number, especially for a road team to be favored. We've only seen it five times before this game this season," Bessire says. "It seems like too many points here. Historically, only about one out of every 40 NFL games is won by exactly eight points. Furthermore, 51.4% of all games historically fall within eight points. Consider that home underdogs win about 35% of the time and the thinking here is pretty straight forward. I! do not usually like to quote trends like that because they typically are irrelevant to the game, but I think that puts this kind of a game into proper perspective."

Like the Saints/Titans game, Pregame's Leonard notes that the Patriots essentially have the AFC East division locked up and they may not get up for this nonconference game. "It's probably the least important game for them the rest of this season," he says.

The Pick: Redskins +8. Given how well Roy Helu is running the ball for the Redskins, it's hard to pick in favor of a Patriots defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the run. In addition, though New England is a juggernaut on offense, the Redskins actually have a pretty good defense, ranked 10th in the NFL according to DVOA. I think Washington keeps this game close enough, maybe even with a late back-door cover like what we saw last weekend in the Colts/Patriots game.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Paul Bessire's Prediction Machine is undefeated in picking Texans games against the spread this season. So when he says that this line is giving too much credit to the Bengals, I'm inclined to listen to him.

According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Bengals as 3-point favorites at home, with the line only briefly hitting -4 a few times during the week. Now, I like rooting for this Bengals team. They're exciting to watch post-Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco. But the Bengals have lost three of their last four games while the Texans are on a six-game winning streak. Why are the Bengals favored?

"Cincinnati does have the quarterback edge with fellow-rookie Andy Dalton taking the snaps and looking strong this season, yet the Bengals' offense still falls well below average in just about every respect," Bessire says. "Both defenses will be better than the offenses they play, yet Houston has the relative matchup advantage on both sides of ! the ball . Like last week's 17-10 win by Houston over Atlanta at home, do not expect many points but do expect a Houston win."

Pregame's Leonard is always leaning towards Houston. "They're carbon copies of each other, but Houston has a better running game," he says. "This is another low-scoring game, so if you can catch a field goal or better, you're better being on the underdog. As long as T.J. Yates doesn't force anything, that's probably the right side."

The Pick: Texans +3. I understand that Houston has a reputation of losing steam as the season goes along. When you consider the number of key injuries the team is racking up, you'd expect the tail-off to come sooner than usual. But the Texans are defying that notion this year. Again, I like watching the Bengals play, but I worry about picking them in games where they have to play a good defense. Their fives losses this season are all against solid defensive teams. That total will probably reach six this weekend.

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Oh, God. Am I really going to pick Tim Tebow again?

Like with his model's picks in Texans games, Bessire's Prediction Machine is a perfect 7-0 in picking games against the spread where Tim Tebow is the starting quarterback. This week, though, the Broncos are in the unusual position of actually being favored in a football game.

According to Vegas Insider, the Las Vegas Hilton posted the Broncos as 3.5-point favorites. That line has held up for the most part, with the Broncos briefly slipping to 2-point favorites during the week. Of course, motivation comes into play again in this game, as you have two teams with outside chances of making the playoffs. Just don't pin Denver's chances on the grace of Tebow.

"Denver's surge over the last seven weeks has had more to do with the health and improvement of the defense than anything else," Bessire says. "Chicago has headed in the opposite d! irection while playing other AFC West opponents in the last two weeks."

The "headed in the opposite direction" Bessire speaks of is largely due to injuries. First, quarterback Jay Cutler injured his thumb and will be out the rest of the regular season. Last weekend, the second shoe dropped on the Bears as running back Matt Forte, who really has performed terrific in a contract year, went out of the game with a knee injury.

"With a week to prepare for life without Forte, the Bears should not be that bad, but it is still difficult to expect them to compete on the road against one of the hottest -- and healthiest -- teams in the league," Bessire says. "The Bears are 18th against the run, according to our numbers, so it's not a great matchup for them to have to go on the road."

While Bessire is very certain of his pick in this game, Pregame's Leonard is torn. "I've always liked Denver as an underdog," he explains. "The total is only 35.5, so there aren't a lot of points to be put up here. I don't like them laying more than a field goal. Whoever scores 17 could win this game easily. Chicago is probably the best defense Denver has faced under Tim Tebow. If a team can get a defensive score, they'll probably cover this game."

The Pick: Broncos -3.5. Caleb Hanie wasn't supposed to be that big of a drop-off from Jay Cutler, but the loss of starting running back Matt Forte could be the nail in the coffin of Chicago's offense this season. Now, the question becomes, can the Broncos score enough points? The Bears have a solid defense ranked 4th in DVOA, so points will be tough to come by. That said, the Broncos could score one touchdown and both win this game and cover.

Although I've given my five picks against the spread for Week 14, I thought I'd also add in my selections for the other games this week. I won't include these in my overall record, but instead I'm just merely adding them as a bonus. Again, please! leave y our comments below with your picks this week and why. Have a great weekend.

Home team in all caps

• Browns +14.5 over STEELERS
• Oakland +11.5 over PACKERS
• JETS -10.5 over Chiefs
• LIONS -10 over Vikings
• Atlanta -3 over CAROLINA
• JACKSONVILLE +2 over Tampa Bay
• San Francisco -3.5 over ARIZONA
• Buffalo +7 over San Diego
• DALLAS -4 over Giants
• St. Louis +10 over SEATTLE
• Indianapolis +16.5 over BALTIMORE

I know I missed publishing this story in time for Thursday's game between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, although I tweeted the pick last night. To his credit, Pregame's Leonard also picked the Browns for the value, noting that it was probably Cleveland's most important game this season as it was their only nationally televised games all year.

Leonard also says he's leaning on Atlanta as he's still not overly impressed with Carolina. "Carolina played Indy and Tampa, so they're getting wins but it's against the bottom of the barrel," he says. "Even though Atlanta isn't playing well, they're still in the playoff hunt. I expect Atlanta to win and if I can lay less than a field goal, it's probably the right side."

Prediction Machine's Bessire says the Atlanta/Carolina game is a no pick for his model. "I think line is right. Cam Newton could have a great day and still not win," Bessire says. "I think the Falcons are the right side here. It's a matter of whether the Falcons can get right here and put up big numbers against Carolina. "

Although the game is off the boards in most places because Josh Freeman's status is up in the air, Bessire says his model still likes Jacksonville to win outright whether it's Freeman or Josh Johnson behind center come Sunday.

"We saw a 5-point swing last week after Josh Johnson stepped in for Freeman and we could see something again this week," Bessire says. "So my concern i! s that y ou might miss +1 for Jacksonville and get -2.5 for the Jaguars if Freeman doesn't end up playing after all."

.

>To follow Robert Holmes on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/RobTheStreet.

>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

Tags: AA ,ADTN ,NFLX ,PEP ,S ,Silver Stocks ,Top Performing Silver Stocks ,Top Performing Stocks 2012 ,Top Performing Stocks To Buy In 2012 ,5 High Demand Stocks on Today’s Trading Screens