Hot Topic Inc. Third Quarter Earnings Sneak Peek

Hot Topic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOTT) will unveil its latest earnings on Wednesday, November 16, 2011. Hot Topic is a mall- and web-based specialty retailer.

Hot Topic, Inc. Earnings Preview Cheat Sheet

Wall St. Earnings Expectations: The average estimate of analysts is for profit of 7 cents per share, a rise of 40% from the company’s actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. During the past three months, the average estimate has moved down from 8 cents. Between one and three months ago, the average estimate was unchanged. It has since dropped over the last month. For the year, analysts are projecting net income of 17 cents per share, a swing from a loss of one cent last year.

Past Earnings Performance: For the past four quarters, the company has met expecations. Last quarter, the company reported net loss of 8 cents per share to fall in step with the mean estimate.

Wall St. Revenue Expectations: On average, analysts predict $179.2 million in revenue this quarter, a decline of 2.2% from the year ago quarter. Analysts are forecasting total revenue of $698 million for the year, a decline of 1.5% from last year’s revenue of $708.2 million.

Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about Hot Topic with five of seven analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.

A Look Back: In the second quarter, the company’s loss narrowed to a loss of $6.2 million (14 cents a share) from a loss of $6.3 million (14 cents) a year earlier, meeting analyst expectations. Revenue rose 0.6% to $150.9 million from $150 million.

Key Stats:

A year-over-year revenue increase in the second quarter snapped a streak of three consecutive quarters of revenue declines. Revenue fell 0.8% in the first quarter, 0.9% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year and 3.3% in the third quarter of the last fiscal year.

Competitors to Watc! h: Zumiez Inc. (NASDAQ:ZUMZ), Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN), Mecox Lane Limited ADR (NASDAQ:MCOX), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), dELiA*s, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLIA), American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO), Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE:ARO), The Buckle, Inc. (NYSE:BKE), Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSUN), and The Wet Seal, Inc. (NASDAQ:WTSLA).

Stock Price Performance: During September 15, 2011 to November 10, 2011, the stock price had fallen $1.47 (-17.8%) from $8.24 to $6.77. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between March 18, 2011 and March 28, 2011 when shares rose for seven-straight days, rising 16.3% (+81 cents) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between May 31, 2011 and June 8, 2011 when shares fell for seven-straight days, falling 9.5% (-73 cents) over that span. Shares are up 73 cents (+12.1%) year to date.

(Company fundamentals by Xignite Financials. Earnings estimates provided by Zacks)

 

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