Friday, April 16, 2010

Are you most bullish on right now?

I really struck a nerve on my personal blog on Friday!

Hundreds of our readers jumped online to answer the question of the day:

Is this the time to load up on gold, silver and other precious metals ... or not? Why?

How much of your portfolio have you invested? Do you plan to buy more in the months ahead?

Which are your favorites? Gold? Silver? Platinum? Palladium?

Surprisingly, a few of our readers are precious metals skeptics:

"I don't see gold soaring this year as a lot of experts expect," says David Y., "because I feel, as long as other currencies around the world are in trouble, the U.S. dollar will stay about where it is or even get a little stronger. Foreign investors will still have faith in the U.S. dollar and gold will stall."

But the vast majority are clearly bullish on precious metals in 2010 and beyond:

Eric agrees that gold prices will retreat, but sees that as a reason to buy: "I believe gold will drop further as a knee-jerk reaction to the idea that we have commodity deflation. This is, in my opinion, a good time to load up on physical gold as a dollar hedge. I like to keep 5% of my assets in physical gold."

Jay is looking for profits of up to 36% or more in gold over the next three years: "Just about every major industrial nation is inflating its currency. They are promoting growth of money supply over fighting inflation. With Ben at the helm, the price of gold in dollars will continue to climb. I expect gold at $1,200 by the end of 2010 and over $1,500 by the end of 2012."

Scott V.R. is a super bull with almost a third of his money wrapped up in precious metals: "If you have the guts to live with the fluctuations, it is time to load up with metals. As long as the government keeps printing money and banks continue to be net buyers instead of sellers, we will continue to see gold and silver as a safe haven. I have about 30% of my portfolio divided between top stocks for 2010 and bullion. Mostly gold and silver and a little platinum."

Phil, who also says he has about 30% of his money in gold and silver, couldn't agree more: "The recent price pullbacks present a buying opportunity. I favor silver as a two-way bet: Its uses are primarily industrial but it is also regarded as a bullion commodity so it will tend to go up with gold. Plus demand exceeds supply and that is unlikely to change."

Speaking of silver, it seems to have attracted quite a fan club, lately:

Al in Arizona: "The current ratio of silver to gold is 66 to 1. This will continue to grow closer, making silver a better deal than gold. Any silver under $20/ounce is a steal. It's destined to go up 20% in three months. Load up now."

Gerald says that longer term, silver could soar 250%: "If the gold/silver ratio ever moved back to the more traditional 20/1, silver would need to move up about 2.5 times its current level."

Marilyn G. seems to prefer palladium.

"Well," she writes, "I don't know why palladium is going up so nicely, I only know it is. But my thinking is, since palladium is the sister metal to platinum, might not car makers substitute palladium in future catalytic converters for expensive platinum?"

Judging from these and hundreds of other enthusiastically positive responses, it's clear that, among our readers, precious metals rank highest of all the investment classes we've discussed so far. I'd guess about a NINE on a scale of one to ten.

My view: No matter how good an asset class may sound — in theory or in practice — NEVER overinvest. Keep your money spread out over all FIVE asset classes. And if the conditions are ripe for major declines, consider also playing the downside.

Tomorrow, we'll take a look at how our readers define the optimal growth portfolio for 2010 — but first, I have one last asset class I want to cover: Currencies!

New ETFs make investing in euros, yens, pounds and other currencies — either for moves UP or DOWN — as easy as buying top stocks for 2010 in IBM or Microsoft. And we've all seen how dramatically the U.S. dollar can fall — or rise — against them.

So what do YOU think? Just to jump over to my blog and answer today's "Question of the Day:"

Do currency ETFs have a place in your portfolio?

Which currencies — the U.S. dollar, Canadian or Aussie dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, Brazilian real or others — are you most bullish on right now?

What percent of your total investment capital do you invest in currencies?

As always, I'll add my own thoughts to yours. And then, we'll move on to the next major step — to build an optimal growth portfolio for the year ahead!

Good luck and God bless!

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