February 2011 Commerce Department Sales Data

Reminder: We like to look at the Commerce Department data on a comp basis (year-over-year change). Hey, it’s government data, so caveat emptor (see here).

Big picture, our favorite measure of “what’s happening at the mall” (excludes Motor Vehicles, Gasoline, and Building Materials) suggests a +4.6% year-over-year sales improvement in February 2011. This represents a deceleration versus the reported +5.2% growth in January 2011.

The most compelling category specific storylines in February 2011 were:

Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores faced much tougher 3-year comparisons beginning in February 2011. True to form, year-over-year sales for the category plummeted -4.0% in February 2011 versus a -0.9% decline in January 2011.

After delivering slightly positive year-over-year results in December 2010, Electronics & Appliance Stores reverted back to negative territory in January/February 2011. Comparisons versus LY will be much tougher to anniversary beginning in March 2011.

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers delivered robust year-over-year growth of +23.7% in February 2011. Wow! That’s the strongest year-over-year growth rate since at least 1998. This result is in stark contrast to the other “big ticket” categories (i.e. Furniture & Electronics).

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers and Gasoline Stations combined to mask a ‘true’ underlying deceleration of sales in February 2011 versus January 2011. Only a few categories delivered a stronger growth rate thus far in Q1 2011 than Q4 2010.

Monthly “what’s happening at the mall” year-over-year results:

• January 2010: +2.7% (+1.2% 2-year)
• February 2010: +3.4% (+3.1% 2-year)
• March 2010: +5.4% (+3.2% 2-year)
• April 2010: +4.5% (+1.5% 2-year)
• May 2010: +4.1% (+0.8% 2-year)
• June 2010: +4.6% (+0.8% 2-year)
• July 2010: +4.6% (+0.6% 2-year)
• August 2010: +4.9% (+2.4% 2-year)
• September 2010: +5.1% (+4.5% 2-year)
• October 2010: +4.9% (+5.9% 2-year)
• November 2010: +5.7% (+7.0% 2-year)
• December 2010: +4.9% (+8.8% 2-year)
• January 2011: +5.2% (+8.0% 2-year)
• February 2011: +4.6% (+8.2% 2-year)

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.