There is much debate about the effect of currency wars on gold and its future direction. Currently, the fundamentals of gold are muddled. On the one hand, central banks continue to print lots of money, and some believe currency wars are imminent. On the other hand, inflation is stable, and the metals are under the control of the momentum crowd, which represents weak hands. Under such circumstances, it makes sense to turn to the long-term technical analysis for gold for guidance.
A picture is worth a thousand words. The chart linked to below shows the long-term technical analysis of gold.
Please click here for the chart.
But before delving into the technical analysis, it is important to understand the background.
Currency skirmishes, not war
My subscribers often forward me investment-related emails that they receive from other outfits that they deem worthy of consideration. Lately, the subject of many such emails has been currency wars. The most commonly asked question is, "Why are you not recommending gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares GLD and silver ETF iShares Silver Trust SLV to protect us from the currency wars that are occurring?"
I have never been a forex daytrader, but relationships between currencies play a big role in our allocation models. We often take medium- and long-term positions in currencies as a means of diversification from stocks, bonds and commodities.
My answer to the question of currency wars has been consistent for the last two years. There are no currency wars, just currency skirmishes. My forecast has been that we will see skirmishes for the foreseeable future, but no currency wars.
G7 statement
Monday morning when the gold pit opened for futures trading in the United States, gold fell out of bed. There were reports that the selling was from European and Asian investors, but the data shows that such reports were clearly wrong. China was on a holiday due to the start of the Lunar New Year. Prior to the opening of pit trading in the United States, the London gold fix was much higher.
There is no denying that gold is a solid means of protection against the devaluation of fiat currencies. A fundamental issue gold faces is that QE3, when properly analyzed, was not supportive of gold. However, the momentum crowd rushed into gold without fully understanding QE3.
The momo crowd that bought gold on QE3 represents weak hands. These weak hands panic every time there is short-term adverse news. The news Monday morning was that G7 officials were considering issuing a statement that G7 nations were committed to market determined exchange rates and not using government policies to devalue currencies.
What do you expect governments to say?
Does any person with even a few working brain cells expect governments to say anything different? Currency devaluations are real. Gold is a natural protection. The obvious question is why I have not been recommending gold. Ever since recommending scaling back gold positions, I have not recommended a long-term investment in gold, but simply have given a number of short-term trading signals. The same is true for silver; after allocating 20% of assets to silver for a long-term investment at $17.73, silver was sold between $45-$50. Subsequently I have given only short-term trading signals on silver.
As I have written in this space, gold and silver have been under the control of the momo crowd. They have run gold and silver up much further than their fair value. The Quantitative Screen of the ZYX Change Method calculates the fair value of gold at $1250 to $1400 and silver at around $24.00.
Gold technicals
With the foregoing background, it will be easier to understand the technicals of gold shown on the chart.
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