Monday, September 17, 2012

This Morning: Pondering the PC Pall, Lifting Apple Numbers

Here are some things going on this morning in your world of tech:

The Street this morning is reflecting upon personal computer data put out late yesterday from Gartner and IDC that was about as bad as most people expected. The firms estimate PC sales fell 0.1% from Q2 of last year to Q2 of this year.

Mizuho Securities’s Abhey Lamba this morning writes that the data suggest “below normal trends” will continue through this quarter, with a return to normal seasonal sales in the December quarter. And Keith Bachman of BMO Capital writes that “the build-out for Win 8 will start in August and continue into September. Hence, September-quarter shipments should see a lift sequentially.”

But, he adds, “We still think Q4 PC sell-out will be disappointing, owning to our concerns about Win8 and weak macro.”

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) saw a big drop in those PC numbers; its shares this morning are off 55 cents, or 2.8%, at $19.14. Dell (DELL), also a loser in the latest PC numbers, is down 23 cents, or 1.9%, at $12.05.

With the poor PC numbers, analysts continue to dump cold water on component suppliers. Nomura Equity Research’s Romit Shah this morning writes, “We can�t make a fundamental argument for being long any semiconductor stocks in today�s environment where global GDP growth is decelerating. Overall, we expect Q3 revenue guidance to be 3-7 points below normal seasonality.”

And Raymond James’s Hans Mosesmann writes of Intel (INTC) this morning that, Q3′s numbers may be too high.

“We would not expect a meaning miss in Q2 given that Intel has pre announced every quarter in which sales finished below its guidance (since 2007),” he writes, but “with consensus assuming 9% quarter over quarter growth for 3Q’12, we believe investors could be set up for a disappointment when Intel reports Q212 results.” That report is next Tuesday, July 17th.

Intel shares are down 62 cents, or 2.4%, at $24.75.

One thing, at least, was rising in estimation this morning: Apple (AAPL). Charlie Wolf�with Needham & Co. writes that the company probably sold more iPads than expected in the June quarter, on the order of 20 million, up from his prior 13.5 million estimate.

“In our view, it�s only a matter of time before iPad shipments exceed iPhone shipments,” writes Wolf. “The iPad is invading the business market at a much faster pace than the iPhone.”

Apple shares this morning are down $7.38, or 1%, at $597.05.

In case you missed it,�The Wall Street Journal‘s Greg Bensinger this morning has an ominous article about how Amazon.com (AMZN) could be getting in over its head if it thinks it can sell a smartphone of its own. Bensinger points out the “cut-throat” nature of the smartphone market. He quotes one analyst, Ramon Llamas of IDC, who says, “This is not the same market as selling a tablet, which people use primarily for consuming media.”

Amazon shares this morning are down $4.67, or 2%, at $213.70.

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