Gilead Science: Complera Approval Is Positive, But Quad Remains Main Event

As only the second complete HIV therapy in a once-daily pill to reach the market, approval of Complera should represent something of a milestone. A combination of Gilead Science’s (GILD) Truvada, itself a combination of two drugs, and Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) Edurant, the product follows in the wake of Gilead's $3bn-a-year Atripla.

However, the drug is not expected to become as big a commercial success – consensus data from EvaluatePharma shows sales of $507m by 2016, a figure that masks very different views of Complera’s future. Gilead shares climbed 2.5% on Thursday to $36.09, largely due to a recovery after Wednesday's sector-wide declines as this approval was widely expected - all eyes remain fixed on the impending data from a quad pill that is much morelikely to move the needle.

In the bag

Approval of Complera, previously called Btripla, was widely expected given the green light forEdurant earlier this year, the only new component of the triple combination.

The drug has been priced at a very similar level to Atripla, so the choice between the two will come down to the drugs’ relative attributes. Most believe Atripla will continue to be the first choice.